Uzo @Uzocapital Twitter profile

Pinned Tweet

Uzo

2 months

1) I've published my first write up on Substack, where I dive into IWG ( $IWG $IWG.L). Laying out why even without re-rating, this should morph into a 40%+ TSR compounder....and why i see 200% (base case) to 500% (bull case) upside over 3-4 years Link:

Uzo | Substack

substack.com

1

3

29

Last Seen Profiles

@charlottehugo7

@9GDugtyA332fWY

@huwari8008

@NicolasH98081

@galaxycounterss

@smels_jaz

@musicbylemons

@JKl4o24w1w15392

@starcosmetics2

@b2cba849890848d

@HAPPY989FM

@chodhound

@SummitCoDem

@syd_health

@manoelbaksjao

@Handestanbul2

@_pedroanitter

@HammarbyIFBajen

@ShwenShwenbyM

@FarahKhanAli

@choe_amazon

@jangjooooop

@_ericaxu

@e_plaisir

@Sockfood1

@GaLD1l75wFRSFZG

@Grief2701

@OnlyTshepo

@Vane_CRVG

@_CUCUMILO

@kyakakataca

@ASICSspain

@celebitchy

@kathmcnerney

@annebair24

@official__nj

Uzo

@Uzocapital

8 months

@KabbVillage @jeremyscahill when i last checked children are anyone under 18....whats your point?

2

1

142

Uzo

@Uzocapital

8 months

@YonatanMandelba @jeremyscahill even if thats true that doesnt justify been locked up indefinitely without due process / being charged...legal rights should be the bedrock of any democracy

4

0

119

Uzo

@Uzocapital

2 months

1) high margin, capital light businesses with durable growth & moats are extremely attractive...hence are rarely cheap. I get really excited when I see absolute value among this cohort of companies.

5

7

113

Uzo

@Uzocapital

2 months

1) $VOXR thesis: I love royalty businesses....in fact most of my money is privately invested in (music) royalties and I have gone as far as re-mortgaging my home to buy more of these assets....so unsurprisingly I have been intrigued to dig into other royalty businesses.

4

10

86

Uzo

@Uzocapital

2 months

my positions in thematic buckets: business transformation: $IWG, $ACIC, $CREX undiscovered quality microcaps: $ACIC, $BQE.V , $CREX, $VOXR, $OSS.V, temporary headwinds, priced as permanent: $HQI, $XPOF industry inflection + convexity via warrants: $VAL

Uzo

@Uzocapital

2 months

Portfolio: mainly out of favour or undiscovered capital light, sticky, recurring revenue businesses with high (FCF/share) growth, trading on depressed (single digit FCF) multiples. existing: $IWG, $ACIC, $BQE.V, $XPOF, $HQI, $VAL, $CREX, $OSS.V, new: $VOXR exit: 4MS, $NOA

2

1

28

2

9

67

Uzo

@Uzocapital

9 months

@marketplunger1 $YCA / $U.UN.....uranium is going up - question is by how much + for how long

4

2

45

Uzo

@Uzocapital

16 days

Most of my holdings are high quality cash generative businesses with embedded growth that trade on 6-12x FCF in 2025, should deliver CAGR in FCF/s of 30-40% so by 2027 => 3-6x FCF/s, and therefore would need to 3-5x to trade on a multiple reflective of its business quality.

Uzo

@Uzocapital

18 days

Portfolio: growth stocks on value multiples and convexity via warrants. $XPOF, $IWG / $IWG.L, $BQE / $BQE.V, $ASTS, $HQI, $APP, $VAL, $ACIC, $CREX, $SHVA / $SHVA.TA (New)

1

2

25

1

4

42

Uzo

@Uzocapital

2 months

Portfolio: mainly sticky recurring revenue businesses with high free cashflow per share growth (20%+), trading on depressed (single digit) FCF multiples existing positions: $IWG, $XPOF, $ACIC, $BQE.V, $HQI, $VAL, $NOA, 4MS, new positions: $OSS.V, $CREX

Uzo

@Uzocapital

3 months

Portfolio...mainly growth stocks on value multiples $IWG #IWG $ACIC #AmericanCoastal $XPOF #XpotentialFitness $HQI #Hirequest $NOA #NorthAmericanConstruction $VAL #Valaris (warrants) $BQE.V #BQEWater <= NEW $4MS #4mass sold: $VTY #Vistry

2

0

11

4

1

39

Uzo

@Uzocapital

8 months

@YonatanMandelba @jeremyscahill the fact that Palestinian civilians can be tried in an Israeli military (and not civilian) court is also a massive problem....that would never fly in Europe / US / Canada / UK etc

1

0

29

Uzo

@Uzocapital

2 months

Portfolio: mainly out of favour or undiscovered capital light, sticky, recurring revenue businesses with high (FCF/share) growth, trading on depressed (single digit FCF) multiples. existing: $IWG, $ACIC, $BQE.V, $XPOF, $HQI, $VAL, $CREX, $OSS.V, new: $VOXR exit: 4MS, $NOA

2

1

28

Uzo

@Uzocapital

18 days

1) $IWG $IWG.L The buyback catalyst has started. preclose statement signals intention to buyback the remaining converts and reiterated 1x net debt / EBITDA is their stated leverage target. Step 1: converts in H2 (7% lower Share Count) Step 2: equity buybacks in early 2025

Uzo

@Uzocapital

24 days

$IWG have also bought back 1/3 of the £350m convert at a 8% discount…within 9 months, convert could be repurchased in full (reducing diluted shares outstanding by 76m or 7%), and buyback should start, with stock trading on less than 7x fcf 2025

0

13

1

5

28

Uzo

@Uzocapital

18 days

Portfolio: growth stocks on value multiples and convexity via warrants. $XPOF, $IWG / $IWG.L, $BQE / $BQE.V, $ASTS, $HQI, $APP, $VAL, $ACIC, $CREX, $SHVA / $SHVA.TA (New)

Uzo

@Uzocapital

1 month

Portfolio: Large: $IWG / $IWG.L, $XPOF, $ACIC, $BQE.V, $ASTS (warrant), $HQI, $APP (new), $VAL (warrant) Medium: $CREX Small warrants: $PAYO, $PGY, $GROY (new), $RVPH, $MAPS Theme: combine quality, cap-light growth at value multiples or exposure to upside convexity via warrants

1

0

14

1

2

25

Uzo

@Uzocapital

25 days

$ACIC - the amrisc distribution agreement is extended to the of end 2028….very glad to see this tail-risk addressed / PE acquirers arent angling to change the status quo

American Coastal Insurance Corporation Announces a Five-Year Extension of Its Exclusive MGA...

American Coastal Insurance Corporation (Nasdaq Ticker: ACIC) (“the Company”, “American Coastal” or “ACIC”) the insurance holding company of American Coastal Insurance Company (“AmCoastal”) announced...

investors.amcoastal.com

5

6

24

Uzo

@Uzocapital

3 months

My 3 highest conviction names: $XPOF, $BQE.V , $IWG All have highly visibility (already contracted) growth, with their customers fronting the capex, yet on a single FCF multiple (in 2025)...despite likely growing FCF / share over 50% CAGR over the next 3 years.

Uzo

@Uzocapital

3 months

Portfolio...mainly growth stocks on value multiples $IWG #IWG $ACIC #AmericanCoastal $XPOF #XpotentialFitness $HQI #Hirequest $NOA #NorthAmericanConstruction $VAL #Valaris (warrants) $BQE.V #BQEWater <= NEW $4MS #4mass sold: $VTY #Vistry

2

0

11

4

2

22

Uzo

@Uzocapital

2 months

@RadnorCapital growing franchise / royalty businesses are the best lomg term investments…have majority of my capital deployed to these vis music royalties owned directly + biggest equity investments - in growing franchise / royalty companies that have de-rated materially ($xpof $iwg $hqi)

1

0

20

Uzo

@Uzocapital

8 months

Listened to $PGY at the UBS conference....was pretty clear that Q4 is tracking strongly and ahead of sellside expectations. mentioned 70-75m EBITDA for the FY 2023, implying $23-28m in Q4 vs Q4 street at $23m. Look good for a Q4 beat...and continuation of beat + raise trend.

1

2

18

Uzo

@Uzocapital

2 months

$HQI - CEO buying shares....largest purchase since IPO and first in 9 months - comes alongside commentary at Q1 that end markets are stabilising and (workers comp) cost headwinds are reversing. I suspect this is the inflection point - in this growth cyclical.

3

4

15

Uzo

@Uzocapital

1 month

Portfolio: Large: $IWG / $IWG.L, $XPOF, $ACIC, $BQE.V, $ASTS (warrant), $HQI, $APP (new), $VAL (warrant) Medium: $CREX Small warrants: $PAYO, $PGY, $GROY (new), $RVPH, $MAPS Theme: combine quality, cap-light growth at value multiples or exposure to upside convexity via warrants

Uzo

@Uzocapital

1 month

Portfolio: Large: $IWG / $IWG.L, $ACIC, $XPOF, $BQE.V, $HQI, $ASTSW , $VAL.WT Medium: $CREX, $VOXR, Small warrants: $PAYO, $PGY, $RPVH, $MAPS, Watchlist: $OSS.V , $AEP.V Theme: combining quality growth and value...or high convexity via warrants.

3

0

13

1

0

14

Uzo

@Uzocapital

24 days

$IWG have also bought back 1/3 of the £350m convert at a 8% discount…within 9 months, convert could be repurchased in full (reducing diluted shares outstanding by 76m or 7%), and buyback should start, with stock trading on less than 7x fcf 2025

Tip Top Copy Cat

@clonedcapital

27 days

$IWG bond €500m issuance. IG-rated, 6Y, 6.7% yield (c.70bps wider than index) - good result for debut IG issuer. They will now repay RCF. Also reduces risk of Dec-25 convertible put as they can tap markets, if necessary, to meet that obligation. Solving one issue at a time...

1

13

0

13

Uzo

@Uzocapital

10 months

Spoke with IR of $PGY #pagaya today They are connected to 20k auto dealers today and are not finished rolling out / ramping with Ally (c.2% of vol, Cali coming soon)...Westlake will add another 50k dealers (2/3 indies but gets them into $AN & $LAD franchises).

2

13

Uzo

@Uzocapital

1 month

Canadian clearly banking winners ahead of the cap gains tax treatment change…which small/microcaps are you looking to take the other side? $BQE.V is mine

1

13

Uzo

@Uzocapital

2 months

Agree with Yaron's take on $IWG $IWG.L ...the big picture, is this is a growing cap light business. In 2025, its trading on 7-8x FCF, will be in buyback mode and in the absense of re-rating, translate to a 40% FCF/share CAGR.

Yaron Naymark

@1MainCapital

2 months

CEO of $IWG sold 35m shares last night after the close, representing ~12% of his stake. The sale allows him to repay + terminate a margin loan he took out against his shares last year which made investors uneasy. Of course, nobody likes to see mgmt sell shares and there is

3

5

75

0

1

13

Uzo

@Uzocapital

21 days

repurposing vacant office real estate is one of the largest financial problemss globslly ($250bn value destruction) … $iwg has a proven track record able to save landlords from financial distress. This is the real estate’s ozempic on sale for 7x fcf…with fcf/share cagr 40%

Yaron Naymark

@1MainCapital

24 days

More landlords should be calling $IWG to help fill empty spaces

0

3

22

0

13

Uzo

@Uzocapital

1 month

Portfolio: Large: $IWG / $IWG.L, $ACIC, $XPOF, $BQE.V, $HQI, $ASTSW , $VAL.WT Medium: $CREX, $VOXR, Small warrants: $PAYO, $PGY, $RPVH, $MAPS, Watchlist: $OSS.V , $AEP.V Theme: combining quality growth and value...or high convexity via warrants.

3

0

13

Uzo

@Uzocapital

3 months

I've completely agree with this thesis on $BQE.V and is my most recent portfolio purchase......look forward to meeting the company next week at @PlanetMicroCap showcase. If anyone else is going to be there and wants to meet up let me know!

Jake LaMotta

@ragingbullcap

3 months

$BQE.V Following up on this pitch from two weeks ago, my full-form write-up is now available at the link in bio, for anyone interested.

1

3

48

1

0

13

Uzo

@Uzocapital

6 months

Bloomberg reporting that Blackstone is considering a Bid for L'Occitane $973.HK...a lot hinges on Geiger (70% owner) - who was has muled a take private himself ...I think fair value is 40-50, given growth + profitability of Sol De Janiero

Blackstone Said to Mull Bid for Skin-Care Company L’Occitane

Blackstone Inc. is considering a bid for skin-care company L’Occitane International SA, according to people familiar with the matter.

www.bloomberg.com

Uzo

@Uzocapital

6 months

1) $973.HK Sol de Janiero: growth ACCELERATED to 214% YoY, already delivering c.30% EBIT margin, over EUR200m of Q4 revenue, upcoming distribution tailwind (end of Sephoria US exclusivity) => comfortably be a 1bn+ brand in 2024...alone its worth more than the L'Occitane group.

1

8

1

3

12

Uzo

@Uzocapital

5 months

#Ring are raising the subscription price by 42%....following a 40% price increase less than 2 years ago....so 100% in under 3 years. Subscription Cancelled!

0

1

12

Uzo

@Uzocapital

2 months

$CREX - very positive call with CFO. Key takeaway: +ve: saas growth underpinned by removal of legacy discounts at renewal ($5-6 => $8-9) and strong volume growth. High switching costs mean customers are v sticky. Refinancing provides optionality re v accretive M&A.

2

12

Uzo

@Uzocapital

5 months

buy the best international business listed in the cheapest / most beaten up index. worked in amazingly in: 1) EU sov debt / PIGS crisis: Inditex / Ferrovial 2) UK brexit: games workshop / ashtead 3) turkey: cc icecek Next up is HK => I'm Long L’Occitane $973.HK

Brandon Beylo

@marketplunger1

5 months

The Bottom in Hong Kong stocks.

21

23

305

0

1

11

Uzo

@Uzocapital

3 months

1) $XPOF - is a growing pure play franchisor, trading at a rock bottom valuation (11x 2024 FCF). franchisors such as XPOF are capital light, high margin and inflation protected businesses that deserve a high multiple, particularly if they are delivering solid growth.

5

0

11

Uzo

@Uzocapital

3 months

Portfolio...mainly growth stocks on value multiples $IWG #IWG $ACIC #AmericanCoastal $XPOF #XpotentialFitness $HQI #Hirequest $NOA #NorthAmericanConstruction $VAL #Valaris (warrants) $BQE.V #BQEWater <= NEW $4MS #4mass sold: $VTY #Vistry

Uzo

@Uzocapital

4 months

Portfolio...mainly growth stocks on value multiples. $IWG #IWG $ACIC #AmericanCoastal $XPOF #XpotentialFitness $VTY #Vistry $HQI #Hirequest <= NEW $NOA #NorthAmericanConstruction $VAL #Valaris (warrants) $4MS #4mass

2

0

3

2

0

11

Uzo

@Uzocapital

10 months

excellent overview from the economist on #Uranium "The two largest producers are sold out until 2027; some utilities are thought to be short for 2024". supply response will time, and in the interim - let the bidding war continue! $U.UN $YCA

Why uranium prices are soaring

Conflicts and resurgent demand combine to radioactive effect

www.economist.com

0

1

9

Uzo

@Uzocapital

2 months

@BillBrewsterTBB $iwg…largest flexible office provider globally…and now white-labelling their know-how via management contracts (ie royalties ala hilton model) => transition to cap light growth company trading on bombed out office RE multiple.

1

0

9

Uzo

@Uzocapital

3 months

$IWG $IWG.L ....global leader, no 2 player (wework) is dying. Undergoing rapid transformation from cap intensive to cap light....continuation of current trends including buybacks at today's share price (keeping leverage at 1x) => 7x 25 FCF falls to 1x in 28 (80% CAGR).

Brandon Beylo

@marketplunger1

3 months

UK stocks have two qualities I love: 1) They're absolutely hated 2) They're very cheap What are your favorite 🇬🇧 ideas? The more hated, the better!

168

72

574

0

10

Uzo

@Uzocapital

2 months

I set aside 10-20% of my portfolio for warrants that i feel have very high convexity / mispriced optionality with a fundamental (non-arb) rationale. These are my warrant positions: $ASTS - Ast Spacemobile $VAL - Valaris $PAYO - Payoneer $PGY - Pagaya $RVPH - Reviva Pharma

1

10

Uzo

@Uzocapital

9 months

the 5th largest US bank (by assets) is US bank corp…$590bn assets 4th largest OEM in US is Stellantis (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Alfa Romeo, Citroen, Fiat, Peugeot)…12% share (per stastista) this should transform the scale / earnings power 12 months out $PGY

Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

9 months

$PGY Top 5 bank and top 4 auto captive added. Huge news. Massive win. Puts them in pole position for auto and likely leads to even more partners. Massive validation.

5

2

54

0

10

Uzo

@Uzocapital

30 days

New idea / post is out (link in bio)... $APP stands out as a growth stock on a value multiple (11x FCF 2025 vs 30% FCF/share growth)....usually I have to go fishing in small caps to find these sorts of opportunities.

Uzo

@Uzocapital

1 month

Who Am I? I'm a large cap, AI leader. In Q1: 90% of profits, grew 90% at over 70% EBITDA margin, and bought back 3% of my float. I trade on 13x 2025 FCF, on numbers that assume growth collapses, despite announcing plans to move into materially larger adjacent markets. I'm $APP

2

0

9

1

10

Uzo

@Uzocapital

2 months

@IrrationalMrkts levered fcf / fully diluted market cap over fcf / share growth 3Y forward CAGR …encapsulates growth, cash conversion, dilution, valuation etc…basically a garp metric focusing on cashflows

0

9

Uzo

@Uzocapital

2 months

why i generally avoid retail….Burberry $BRBY revenues -4% => pre-tax profits -45%. operational deleverage can be brutal. is my primary concern for $WOSG

4

1

8

Uzo

@Uzocapital

8 months

@hkuppy @CaptainRoyen @CorneliaLake tbh i think Nobel is higher quality (in terms of assets + management + contracting terms)….albeit love convexity of warrants hence am in $VAL warrants

1

0

8

Uzo

@Uzocapital

3 months

@PlanetMicroCap showcase was excellent - great job + thank you @BobbyKKraft the best & most compelling companies i met were: $BQE.V / $OSS.V / $VOXR / $CREX

1

9

Uzo

@Uzocapital

1 month

Who Am I? I'm a large cap, AI leader. In Q1: 90% of profits, grew 90% at over 70% EBITDA margin, and bought back 3% of my float. I trade on 13x 2025 FCF, on numbers that assume growth collapses, despite announcing plans to move into materially larger adjacent markets. I'm $APP

2

0

9

Uzo

@Uzocapital

2 months

agree with this take on $xpof …substantially increased my position today post listening to the temp ceo’s + cfo present at baird, which i thought was very reassuring.

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

@BeenThereCap

2 months

I am listening live to $XPOF presenting at the Baird conference. I don't think I've ever heard a bigger disconnect between investor consensus for a company what's actually going on at the company. I concluded myself that last summer's short report was 95% bogus. 1/2

2

0

34

3

0

9

Uzo

@Uzocapital

5 months

$PGY....secures a proper bench of debt financing partners (Blackrock / JPM / UBS)....next on the checklist: is a forward funding agreement / getting ABS retention % + WAL down

Pagaya Closes Five-Year $280M Credit Facility with BlackRock, UBS, JPMorgan Chase and Other Lenders...

World’s top global asset managers and financial institutions provide capital to Pagaya to support the Company’s financial strategy and future growth NEW YORK --(BUSINESS WIRE)--Feb. 7, 2024-- Pagaya...

investor.pagaya.com

1

8

Uzo

@Uzocapital

6 months

1) $973.HK Sol de Janiero: growth ACCELERATED to 214% YoY, already delivering c.30% EBIT margin, over EUR200m of Q4 revenue, upcoming distribution tailwind (end of Sephoria US exclusivity) => comfortably be a 1bn+ brand in 2024...alone its worth more than the L'Occitane group.

1

8

Uzo

@Uzocapital

2 months

love this chart from Michael Harnett at BofA: picture says a thousand words… my weapons of choice, levered to the theme are: $bqe.v - mining services (pick & shovel) $voxr - mining royalties $val - offshore oil capex

Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay)

@SpecialSitsNews

2 months

Tech vs commodity price ratio

13

36

177

1

8

Uzo

@Uzocapital

4 months

@oscar100_x its a 150m kicker from maturity of newly opened clubs, assuming new clubs mature at the same margins as the existing estate…per slide 10/11 of their q4 results presentation…which added to your numbers above mean 8x ev/fcf (ie very cheap).

2

0

2

Uzo

@Uzocapital

5 months

Portfolio: stocks $ACIC #AmericanCoastal $PGY #Pagaya $IWG #IWG $U.UN #Uranium $VTY #Vistry 4MS #4Mass #LOccitane $NOA #NorthAmericanConstruction warrants $VAL #Valaris $ASTS #ASTSpacemobile $PAYO #Payoneer $RVPH #Reviva $BTM - #BitcoinDepot

Uzo

@Uzocapital

5 months

Portfolio: stocks $ACIC #AmericanCoastal $PGY #Pagaya $U.UN #SPUT #Uranium $IWG $IWG.LN #IWG $VTY $VTY.LN #Vistry #LOccitane 4MS #4MASS - NEW warrants $VAL #Valaris $ASTS #ASTSpacemobile $PAYO #Payoneer $RVPH #Reviva $BTM - #BitcoinDepot

0

1

0

8

Uzo

@Uzocapital

10 days

@ClarkSquareCap $iwg - global leader in flex office, growth is capital light (management contracts + virtual office)…buyings started (converts today, stock in 6 months) => trades on 6x fcf 2025 with 40% fcf/share cagr to 2028 => 2x fcf in 2028.

1

0

8

Uzo

@Uzocapital

1 month

@DeepSailCapital $GOGO....Verizon and AT&T are 2-3 years away from having blanket coverage of the US via $ASTS....when that happens who is going to pay pay $36k / year for gogo?

4

1

8

Uzo

@Uzocapital

1 month

The 2nd company i was referring to below was Trident Royalties $TRR.L , which has accepted a takeover offer from Deterra $DRR.AX . Royalty consolidation thesis makes a tonne of sense in the deeply discounted small cap names.... upside optionality for $VOXR .

Uzo

@Uzocapital

2 months

4) however I found 2 exceptions - one was $VOXR....trading at material discount to (conservative) NPV, c.5x FCF in 2027, despite consistently deploying capital very accretively for shareholders since IPO. $58m invested => $12m royalties in 2023, growing to c.$25-30m in 2027.

1

2

6

2

3

8

Uzo

@Uzocapital

8 months

@hchris999 moral of this story is buying sput or yellowcake is a better risk adjusted bet…additionally in the event of a price spike they should move linearly higher, whereas miners is all about discounting cashflows based on the view of a longer term view on prices

0

8

Uzo

@Uzocapital

8 days

@AST_Diaries the good news is the falcon 9 fuck up wasnt on the AST flight!

0

1

8

Uzo

@Uzocapital

10 months

@SleepwellCap @MetacriticCap I'm actually pretty familiar with this - as I'm a music royalty investor (its my primary source of income). Donald Passman's "All You Need to Know About the Music Business" is an excellent book to unpick a lot of the questions to raised above.

1

7

Uzo

@Uzocapital

1 month

@RahulSetty_ investors are rightly pissed...as they feel they were misled - trust is important from a management team. Doesnt mean however that it the right thing to sell the stock if the automation investments results in a stronger company given the ROIC high + payback is very fast.

0

8

Uzo

@Uzocapital

1 month

Compounders flashing up on my screen as trading close to 10 year valuation lows, on teens PE/FCF. Gaming: $FDJ $EVO Fintech: $FOUR $PAYC $ALLFG $NU $EDEN Discretionary $QSR $MCD $ULTA Staples: $DNP $DGE $RKT $RI $NESN $STZ $HSY $MDLZ

1

0

8

Uzo

@Uzocapital

15 days

big break out today in $APP . still trades at 12x fcf/share in 2025 and can credibly compound fcf / share 30% annually. If the market builds confidence in managements delivering sustainable software growth of 20-30%, the multiple could double and still be on a PEG under 1!

Uzo

@Uzocapital

30 days

New idea / post is out (link in bio)... $APP stands out as a growth stock on a value multiple (11x FCF 2025 vs 30% FCF/share growth)....usually I have to go fishing in small caps to find these sorts of opportunities.

1

10

0

7

Uzo

@Uzocapital

1 month

$XPOF - appointed Mr. Mark King, age 64, as CEO...served as CEO of Taco Bell from 2019 to 2023. Prior to Taco Bell, Mr. King was the President of Adidas North America from 2014 to 2018....gets 100% bonus in 2024 if stock is $16+ at year end

Uzo

@Uzocapital

1 month

$XPOF, finally having the move i expected during yesterdays call, where clarity was provided re CEO exit / nature of investigations, reassurance re current trading...months away from CEO announcement + buybacks. Would like to see insider buying, but think we've seen the lows.

0

3

1

0

6

Uzo

@Uzocapital

7 months

@marketplunger1 uranium should be fun once KAP warns on 2024 production guidance

0

7

Uzo

@Uzocapital

5 months

@CorneliaLake im chatting with them tomorrow

2

0

7

Uzo

@Uzocapital

2 months

@ToffCap @AceRiverCapital @marketplunger1 met the CEO a couple of weeks ago and was really impressed by track record + returns focus... valuation is crazy cheap (5x EV/FCF) once Redhill + Castle Hill come online in 26/27 - for a royalty company... revolver means no more equity dilution.

1

0

6

Uzo

@Uzocapital

4 months

@ValueStockGeek would generally agree….except live in new york city and are supporting a family

1

0

6

Uzo

@Uzocapital

2 months

@Investmentideen MAU are declining at company level (big declines at tinder, only partially offset by growth at hinge)...until hinge growth outweigh declines at tinder, this is like a tobacco stock (+ve pricing offseting -ve volume declines) with a tobacco multiple

1

7

Uzo

@Uzocapital

9 months

@OddDiligence great work! last time i saw API / source code tracking to unpick a customer base was back in late 2018 when the BofA payments analyst did a similar exercise on Wirecard...and concluded it had no major ecom customers and became the sole bear on the name

0

7

Uzo

@Uzocapital

3 months

@marketplunger1 $IWG $IWG.L ....global leader in flex office, only scaled competitor is dying (Wework), undergoing rapid transformation from cap intensive to cap light....assuming current trends persist + buybacks at today's share price => 7x 25 FCF falling to 1x in 2028 (80% CAGR).

0

1

7

Uzo

@Uzocapital

2 months

i like the theme highlighted here…the other name that fits the bill is OSS.V re oil automating oil & gas pipeline integrity management ….if anyone has other names that fit the “first movers investing in automation in legacy industries” I am all ears! guess i need to look at AEP

Kyle Grieve

@IrrationalMrkts

2 months

One of my favourite investing themes today is legacy industries with first-mover effects in automating operations. Atlas Engineered Products, I believe, is at the forefront of this movement in roof truss manufacturing. From my research, I found that there is one other roof

5

15

65

3

0

7

Uzo

@Uzocapital

4 months

@pembridge_cap FX headwind (gbp strength)…and within owned and leased 5% of existing space was closed in 2023 = immediate rev hit (but gross profit improvement given this were unprofitable) vs newly opened space (in managed + franchised and owned +lease) that takes time to mature

0

3

Uzo

@Uzocapital

2 months

6) IF you are right re the fundamentals, the starting multiple is low AND management are sensible capital allocators....the growing FCF, can be fully recycled into buybacks or into investments with even better returns, driving huge FCF/share growth

1

0

7

Uzo

@Uzocapital

2 months

5) in all cases - uncertainty is what presents you with the opportunity.

1

0

7

Uzo

@Uzocapital

7 months

@DaBeardedTrader just buy the physical names sput and yca…ride the price move directly. think people over complicate things sometimes

1

0

7

Uzo

@Uzocapital

2 months

@DeepSailCapital chinese adrs would be smooooooked the most

2

0

6

Uzo

@Uzocapital

2 months

Names I have on my to work on list this week...if you have any recommendations re good content to tap into - let me know! $FOUR $ULTA $SHVA

1

0

6

Uzo

@Uzocapital

5 months

This is very material for the IWG thesis I listened to the video....he quoted: 867 signings in 2023....and based on January + February expects to double that number in 2024 (c.1700!).....driven by repeat customers.

Symmetry

@Symmetry_Invest

5 months

IWG US CEO: "In 2022 we signed 400 asset light deals. In 2023 we more than doubled that to +800. Based on huge momentum so far in Jan+Feb 2024 we expect to double that again in 2024"

7

8

38

1

0

6

Uzo

@Uzocapital

2 months

2) situation 1: there's a narrative justifying a sizable de-rating vs recent history....there's uncertainty re how long these headwinds (actual or perceived) will persist e.g. $HQI $XPOF

1

0

6

Uzo

@Uzocapital

4 months

@LogicalThesis $VAL warrants ($132 strike, 2028 expiry)….if stays brent $70+…floaters should sell out in 12-18m, pricing needs to double to incentivise new orders (there are no new orders + lead time is c4 years) => look through FCF over $3bn (vs $5bn mc today) => stock 3-4x, warrants c10x.

0

5

Uzo

@Uzocapital

2 months

7) Most of the companies i own fit into the criteria above....i.e. trade sub 10x levered FCF in 2025....strong organic FCF growth + buybacks (or accretive bolt ons) => FCF/share doubles by 2027 (5x FCF)....for businesses I think will (at some point) trade on 15-20x FCF.

1

0

6

Uzo

@Uzocapital

2 months

3) what struck me is that most mining royalty companies are either expensive (e.g. trade at big premium to NPV and 20x+ FCF) and/or have mixed track records re historical returns on investment....when either apply it is a hard pass for me.

1

0

4

Uzo

@Uzocapital

1 month

@CCM_Brett agreed…unfortunately they are wedded to progressive dividends (due to uk income fund shareholders), and they should also be selling their entire itc stake on 25x (ideally with a parallel long term distribution agreement) & buying back as much stock as possible at 7x @oscar100_x

1

0

6

Uzo

@Uzocapital

2 months

4) however I found 2 exceptions - one was $VOXR....trading at material discount to (conservative) NPV, c.5x FCF in 2027, despite consistently deploying capital very accretively for shareholders since IPO. $58m invested => $12m royalties in 2023, growing to c.$25-30m in 2027.

1

2

6

Uzo

@Uzocapital

2 months

4) situation 3: the company is a under the radar (micro/small cap or spin off)....and there's uncertainty regarding when others will care (i.e. discovery process). $BQE.V $CREX $VOXR $HQI $OSS.V

1

0

6

Uzo

@Uzocapital

2 months

@TinInvestor @RealRickRule gotta respect him…he is upfront about the risks as well as the rewards

0

6

Uzo

@Uzocapital

11 months

@ValueStockGeek football clubs….barely any have ever been profitable / generate fcf

0

6

Uzo

@Uzocapital

7 months

@PraiseKek @MadisonMetals @toiletkingcap @brianapple12 @GitzelsGreen fantastic DD....very generous of you to devote time to uncovering all of this

0

6

Uzo

@Uzocapital

8 months

@banana_capital_ nobody cares about the write downs....they do care about the cut to 2024 growth expectations though

0

1

6

Uzo

@Uzocapital

8 months

Portfolio Update: $PGY - #Pagaya $U.UN - #SPUT #Uranium $ACIC - #AmericanCostal $RMV - #Rightmove - NEW $VAL - #Valaris (warrants) $ASTS - #ASTSpacemobile (warrants) $RVPH - #Reviva (warrants) exited: $DNP (Dino) & $ALLFG (Allfunds)

Uzo

@Uzocapital

9 months

exited $EVO...getting more concerned about insourcing / commission compression risks, amongst their top clients (top 5, now 30% of revs) as contracts roll...vs estimates / narrative amongst holders that it never will.

0

3

0

1

6

Uzo

@Uzocapital

4 months

@oscar100_x im not involved, but to get to a no-growth valuation you should also apply a mature ebitda to the newly opened clubs …and then deduct maintenance capex….looks a lot cheaper when you do that as theres a lot of recently open clubs that havent matured yet.

1

0

2

Uzo

@Uzocapital

9 months

further supportive evidence that the top 5 bank is US bank...excellent investigative work from @OddDiligence on $PGY via API tracking

Uzo

@Uzocapital

9 months

the 5th largest US bank (by assets) is US bank corp…$590bn assets 4th largest OEM in US is Stellantis (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Alfa Romeo, Citroen, Fiat, Peugeot)…12% share (per stastista) this should transform the scale / earnings power 12 months out $PGY

0

10

0

2

6

Uzo

@Uzocapital

10 months

9 days ago Abel alluded to 5G success…today that is confirmed…and now he’s referencing “strategic partners” - hopefully that means these are the committed financing partners (as opposed to another clumsy stop gap placing). $ASTS

Abel Avellan

@AbelAvellan

10 months

Working with our strategic partners @RakutenGroup , @VodafoneGroup , @ATT , and American Tower to build the first and only space-based cellular broadband network!! 2G, 4G LTE and 5G 🇯🇵🇬🇧🇺🇸🤠🌐📶 #5G

67

133

536

0

1

6

Uzo

@Uzocapital

3 months

L'Occitane ()....stock is still suspended 2 weeks with no update. I wonder if this is a part of a deliberate strategy to frustrate minority investors into agreeing to his low ball terms (HK stocks can be suspended for 18 months without being delisted).

Uzo

@Uzocapital

5 months

buy the best international business listed in the cheapest / most beaten up index. worked in amazingly in: 1) EU sov debt / PIGS crisis: Inditex / Ferrovial 2) UK brexit: games workshop / ashtead 3) turkey: cc icecek Next up is HK => I'm Long L’Occitane $973.HK

0

1

11

1

0

6

Uzo

@Uzocapital

1 year

@spacanpanman @KevinLMak $PGY and $ASTS are the names i own in size…$CLBT im a fan of but am not involved

0

4

Uzo

@Uzocapital

24 days

notable insider transaction $pgy CFO selling $130k of stock…doesn’t instill confidence that a big forward funding deal is imminent $hqi - CEO has been buying stock consistently and in decent size since q1 results…now a director started buying stock today ($24k)

5

1

6

Uzo

@Uzocapital

4 months

yesterday was painful!.... $PGY & $NOA ....thankfully $VTY providing some offset today. Cut most of my $PGY last night - the raise challenged my confidence that the forward funding solution was imminent (critical milestone for the investment thesis). Adding to $IWG and $XPOF.

2

0

6

Uzo

@Uzocapital

4 months

@ParthenosCap iwg…7x fcf in 2025… growth, all coming from cap light + high growth royalties (ala hilton) and digital, huge tax assets => 30% fcf growth cagr (25-28), keeping leverage at 1x via buybacks (in H1 2025) juices fcf / share cagr to 80% (25-28) at todays share price.

1

0

5

Uzo

@Uzocapital

2 months

3) situation 2: business is undergoing a transformation or still scaling (with excellent unit economics)....there is uncertainty re timeline / reaching scale / continued execution e.g. $IWG $OSS.V $VOXR

2

0

5

Uzo

@Uzocapital

6 months

@giginator_ everyone knows this already though given KAP already soft warned - we just dont know the magnitude of it

0

5

Uzo

@Uzocapital

9 months

US Bank Corp 2022 Annual Report: "Credit cards": $26bn loan book "Other retail" (includes personal + auto, excludes primary mortgages): $55bn loan book Key question how this translates into application flow for the segements that $PGY is active (personal + auto + BNPL etc)

Uzo

@Uzocapital

9 months

the 5th largest US bank (by assets) is US bank corp…$590bn assets 4th largest OEM in US is Stellantis (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Alfa Romeo, Citroen, Fiat, Peugeot)…12% share (per stastista) this should transform the scale / earnings power 12 months out $PGY

0

10

0

5

Uzo

@Uzocapital

1 month

@TheRealDavey2 concern is around risks / right multiple for asian business… more evidence surfacing that a significant portion of asian revenue / growth is from illegal sources (money laundering + countries where gambling is illegal) via their reseller network.

1

0

5

Uzo

@Uzocapital

1 month

@StockSavvyShay why not just own $app…11x fcf in 2025, are winning and growing fast

4

0

3

Uzo

@Uzocapital

4 months

@marketplunger1 UK is a v fertile ground for finding quality companies on trough / cheap multiples. $IWG + $VTY are my big bets - but there are many other contenders: Rightmove / Unilever / Reckitt / Smith & Nephew / CCH / Diageo / Prudential / Rentokil.

0

4