Radnor Capital @RadnorCapital Twitter profile

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

4 months

I listened to a call with several JPM analysts on the AI / data center trend. At the risk of continuing to state the obvious, this will be the most important growth investing trend of the next decade. The focus was really on how to play the AI trend beyond obvious names like

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

3 months

We’ve owned Wingstop $WING in size since the IPO in 2015 at $19 / share – today the stock is close to ~$400 / share, or >20x return. The valuation is nearly impossible to justify here at ~100x 2025 earnings estimates (although it’s always been “expensive”), which is obviously

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

4 months

Vivek Arya at BofA has been earlier and more right on Nvidia $NVDA than anyone I follow. For context, he was talking about $20-30 of earnings power when the street was stuck in the single digits. He’s out this morning with a note and it would be a mistake not to take his thoughts

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

6 months

I own Vertiv $VRT (leader in power / cooling solutions for several end markets, but most importantly, data centers) and will continue to own. I’d imagine the stock continues to run into earnings on 2/21 after strong data center capex commentary from the hyper scalers and robust

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

2 months

JP Morgan hosted their annual tech conference last week in Boston, and unsurprisingly, the major theme across companies was AI. They put together a comprehensive list of perspectives / notes on the subject that I found interesting… The industry is still in very early stages of

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

28 days

Confirmed with a friend who works at salesforce $CRM that they do not use CRM effectively internally. Many sales teams manage their forecasts in excel. Crazy.

Compound248 💰

@compound248

28 days

what does salesforce do, sophie? it uses Excel to sell crm solutions.

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

16 days

I just went through Steve Tusa's (JP Morgan) deep dive on the data center development pipeline in the US. I recommend to anyone with access to $JPM research. Steve is a thoughtful analyst who is able to combine data / analysis and common sense in his investment process. A few

Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

2 months

I caught up with Vertiv $VRT management this week. Stock is consolidating after an epic run over the last twelve months. And while the stock wont ~5x again in the next year, its hard to imagine the top is in, and I continue to hold most of my position. Key takeaway (that we

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

2 months

In my opinion, there are 4 relevant skills in the investment management industry. Analyst (analysis, due diligence, etc.), portfolio management (position sizing, timing, etc.), fundraising (marketing) and management (leading / motivating people). I primarily discuss decisions

Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

2 months

A few random thoughts on Nvidia $NVDA (continues to be a core holding – I haven’t bought or sold stock recently, but continue to check my blind spots)… 1) it’s important to point out that just because big tech $MSFT $GOOGL $AMZN $META $ORCL etc. is spending so much on AI

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

14 days

Vertiv $VRT reported this morning and the stock closed down ~13%. Good report, ok conference call, tough tape, and conservative guidance. My estimates are going higher and the story hasn’t changed. I still own most of my initial position and am inclined to add some here. It’s

Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

6 months

I own Vertiv $VRT (leader in power / cooling solutions for several end markets, but most importantly, data centers) and will continue to own. I’d imagine the stock continues to run into earnings on 2/21 after strong data center capex commentary from the hyper scalers and robust

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

1 year

(1/10) We listened to calls with senior management of Haliburton $HAL and Hess $HES and found several comments on global energy markets to be interesting and insightful...

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

28 days

I attended Citi’s Gen AI Summit in New York yesterday and continue to believe we are early in the AI adoption cycle (but like other technology / innovation cycles, the trajectory will be non-linear)… Atif Malik and team put together a list of takeaways that I thought were worth

Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

2 months

A few random thoughts on Nvidia $NVDA (continues to be a core holding – I haven’t bought or sold stock recently, but continue to check my blind spots)… 1) it’s important to point out that just because big tech $MSFT $GOOGL $AMZN $META $ORCL etc. is spending so much on AI

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

3 months

Eric Schmidt (former Google $GOOGL CEO) on AI: “I think this stuff is under-hyped, not over-hyper. Because the arrival of intelligence of a non-human form is really a big deal for the world.” On AI capex: “The scaling laws of these systems are continuing to go up without any

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

2 months

I caught up with Vertiv $VRT management this week. Stock is consolidating after an epic run over the last twelve months. And while the stock wont ~5x again in the next year, its hard to imagine the top is in, and I continue to hold most of my position. Key takeaway (that we

Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

6 months

I own Vertiv $VRT (leader in power / cooling solutions for several end markets, but most importantly, data centers) and will continue to own. I’d imagine the stock continues to run into earnings on 2/21 after strong data center capex commentary from the hyper scalers and robust

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

3 months

I listened to the Vertiv $VRT (core holding) CEO & CFO at the BofA conference this morning. A few points worth highlighting... AI today vs. internet acceleration in early 2000s – industry is more mature, with far more robust capital structures supporting spend. AI adoption is

Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

6 months

I own Vertiv $VRT (leader in power / cooling solutions for several end markets, but most importantly, data centers) and will continue to own. I’d imagine the stock continues to run into earnings on 2/21 after strong data center capex commentary from the hyper scalers and robust

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

3 months

After Google $GOOGL, Microsoft $MSFT and Meta $META, cloud Capex for 2024 is trending ~$220bn, or up 35% y/y. We still have to hear from Amazon $AMZN, Oracle $ORCL and China hyper-scalers, but I’d imagine they will follow a similar trend. Microsoft also pointed out that demand

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

2 months

A few random thoughts on Nvidia $NVDA (continues to be a core holding – I haven’t bought or sold stock recently, but continue to check my blind spots)… 1) it’s important to point out that just because big tech $MSFT $GOOGL $AMZN $META $ORCL etc. is spending so much on AI

Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

3 months

I think another important point on Nvidia $NVDA is how you keep your employees motivated when many have made generational wealth over the last few years. I think the answer comes down to leadership and that starts and ends with Jensen. Obviously he's able to craft, articulate

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

2 months

Growing electricity demand (particularly related to AI) and the various ways to service that demand has been an increasingly important investment theme. In addition to Nvidia $NVDA, which is doing its part by making chips more energy efficient, I’ve primarily played the theme

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

3 months

If you have access to JP Morgan research, I recommend taking a spin through Michael Cembalest’s recent report. Thanks to JPM sales for flagging. A few highlights… Why are US housing prices stable despite higher interest rates? Historically, home prices usually declined only

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

3 months

I listened to a call on AI infrastructure trends with @AlanWeckel , Co-Founder of the 650 Group (market research firm) – very smart / thoughtful guy with a solid handle on the data center, communications, and information technology markets. Some thoughts below, with a few personal

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

15 days

Spotify $SPOT reported this morning, and the stock is up ~12%. This has been and continues to be a core holding. Key metrics like premium subs, gross margin, and free cash flow all ahead of expectations. First of all, Daniel Ek @eldsjal runs an impressive conference call. He

Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

2 months

Spotify $SPOT is raising prices again in the US and the stock is up ~5%. Individual +$1 or +9% to $11.99, Duo +$2 or +13% to $16.99 and Family Plan +$3 or +18% $19.99. Given the stock reaction, this move was likely sooner and/or larger vs. expectations. At the risk of stating

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

29 days

I highly recommend listening to @modestproposal1 on @InvestLikeBest . Incredibly wide ranging conversation, with thoughtful perspectives throughout. When discussing AI and Nvidia $NVDA more specifically, @modestproposal1 asked a question that I continue to think about: do you

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

3 months

Nvidia $NVDA reported after the close and I expect the stock to trade higher tomorrow. I can get to ~$35 EPS (street ~$31) in CY 2025, with upside to $40 in a bull case scenario. At $35 EPS and a stock price ~$1,000 – the stock is trading ~28-29x earnings. ~25x at $40 EPS. This

Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

2 years

(1/8) I listened to Nvidia's conference call after the close today and felt like I was living in the future. Always a treat to listen to Jensen give a masterclass on computing. Quick summary of the quarter / guide and then a few quotes from the future: $NVDA

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

3 months

Sport Radar $SRAD reported this morning, and the stock is up ~10%. They are the leading provider of data and analytics to the sports ecosystem (most importantly sports betting books). Think of it as a “picks and shovels” play on the growth of online sports betting / fan

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

3 months

A few interesting thoughts on Google’s $GOOGL I/O keynote from JP Morgan… “The biggest takeaway for me was the meaningful changes that are coming to Search… “AI Overviews” is coming to everyone in the US this week and 1B+ people globally later this year. Effectively, Search is

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

2 months

Always love reading JP Morgan's Retail vs. Amazon report. If you get JPM research, its worth a read. US e-commerce penetration can double to 40%+ long-term & should see ~8% sales growth in 2024 (favoring $WMT and $AMZN). Amazon has ~45% share of US e-commerce & AMZN will pass

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

3 months

90% of S&P 500 companies have reported, with earnings up ~7.3% so far. Excluding charges from big drug companies, earnings are up 10.5% (on pace for the best period since late 2021). As I’ve said, certainly seeing signs of bubble activity, but elevated valuations by themselves

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

8 days

I caught up with Vertiv $VRT today – I came away more optimistic and think the recent drawdown is overdone. A few notes from my meeting… Not seeing any signs of slowing customer demand. North American hyper scalers are driving growth now, but international markets and other

Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

14 days

Vertiv $VRT reported this morning and the stock closed down ~13%. Good report, ok conference call, tough tape, and conservative guidance. My estimates are going higher and the story hasn’t changed. I still own most of my initial position and am inclined to add some here. It’s

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

6 months

I was on a call with Spotify $SPOT IR this morning. I own the stock and came away incrementally more bullish. This is the first time I’ve met with them since May of 2023. In my old notes, I have nothing about them looking to grow ~20% annually. This morning IR said multiple

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

29 days

Bill Ackman and Pershing Square USA $PSUS launching their IPO today with Citi, BofA, UBS and Jefferies. I don't plan to invest because I'm paid to make the decisions that I would be investing in Pershing to make, but our investment strategies are aligned and think it could be an

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

1 month

I am interested in gaining more exposure to the power / electricity theme (data centers, energy transition, etc.) and see this as a durable investment trend. I don’t have any solar exposure and am taking advantage of recent weakness in the space and buying some Nextracker $NXT.

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

3 months

Vertiv $VRT continues to be a great story and a core holding. Reported this morning – beat / raise and the stock closed +7% on 60% order growth in Q1 – buyside “bogey” for orders was somewhere ~30%, but as I’ve said, I try not to play the expectations game around quarters.

Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

6 months

I own Vertiv $VRT (leader in power / cooling solutions for several end markets, but most importantly, data centers) and will continue to own. I’d imagine the stock continues to run into earnings on 2/21 after strong data center capex commentary from the hyper scalers and robust

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

2 months

I always go back to the Peter Lynch quote: “far more money has been lost by investors trying to anticipate corrections, than lost in the corrections themselves.” This resonates with me as someone who stayed too bearish, too long at the beginning of Covid, missing out on part

Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

2 months

I thought I’d share an observation that has become increasingly apparent after conference season and spending more time on this platform… Everyone is the smartest guy (or girl) in the room, but nothing on here is as obviously binary as convictions suggest. If this were true,

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

5 months

I just met with Marc Ganzi, CEO of Digital Bridge (digital infrastructure alternative asset manager) – given his portfolio companies are mostly comprised of data centers, cell towers and other digital infrastructure assets, he always has an interesting perspective. The number

Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

6 months

I own Vertiv $VRT (leader in power / cooling solutions for several end markets, but most importantly, data centers) and will continue to own. I’d imagine the stock continues to run into earnings on 2/21 after strong data center capex commentary from the hyper scalers and robust

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

12 days

Veralto $VLTO reported this morning – great print, solid conference call, stock up ~7%. Veralto spun out of Danaher $DHR in late September / early October 2023 – I visited with management in Waltham, MA later in Q4 and started building a position. Veralto has joined Ecolab $ECL

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

2 months

I met with $TKO (UFC & WWE) management yesterday and came away impressed. I appreciate the perspectives that several people shared in DMs. A lot to like about this business... In media & entertainment, you want to own the highest quality content / IP. This is very different

Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

2 months

I am meeting with $TKO (UFC & WWE) management next week. New to the story. Obviously tailwinds associated with sports rights and live events. If anyone has thoughts or can recommend reading material, I'd be very interested.

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

2 months

Draft Kings $DKNG was under pressure yesterday, and while further tax hikes are probable and not to be taken lightly, I think it was an overreaction and I continue to be bullish. Quick overview…sentiment in the online gambling space has turned increasingly negative over the

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

2 months

I thought I’d share an observation that has become increasingly apparent after conference season and spending more time on this platform… Everyone is the smartest guy (or girl) in the room, but nothing on here is as obviously binary as convictions suggest. If this were true,

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

3 months

A good friend of mine who holds an influential position at Apple $AAPL was with leadership this week and shared this comment with me: "Apple may be mute, but we’re certainly not deaf..." Obviously referring to AI and Apple's push into inference at the edge, running LLMs locally

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

4 months

Vertiv $VRT initiated outperform at Oppenheimer, price target $96 (22.5X FY25E EBITDA). Noah Kaye (the analyst) is a smart guy and has the long term thesis right, but important to note that when sentiment / positioning gets this bullish, its often time for a short term breather.

Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

6 months

I own Vertiv $VRT (leader in power / cooling solutions for several end markets, but most importantly, data centers) and will continue to own. I’d imagine the stock continues to run into earnings on 2/21 after strong data center capex commentary from the hyper scalers and robust

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

15 days

Leaders in investment management need to identify and understand the key employee skill sets (see quoted tweet below) so that they can put their people in positions where they can succeed. One relevant conversation is around analysts and portfolio managers. These are often seen

Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

2 months

In my opinion, there are 4 relevant skills in the investment management industry. Analyst (analysis, due diligence, etc.), portfolio management (position sizing, timing, etc.), fundraising (marketing) and management (leading / motivating people). I primarily discuss decisions

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

7 months

I spent the last few weeks reflecting on 2023 and consolidating my thoughts on the global economy and financial markets as we head into 2024. This started as a comprehensive personal exercise, but I ultimately decided to publish on X for those interested. Unfortunately, given the

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

3 months

The founder of Anthropic said on CNBC (the other week, but I’m just seeing it): “I think we're going to see models trained in the next year are going to be about $1 billion…..and then 2025, 2026, we're going to go to $5 billion or $10 billion. And I think there's a chance it may

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

3 months

I own two public safety technology companies, Axon $AXON and Motorola Solutions $MSI. Both companies are innovative, generate substantial free cash flow, with high returns on capital, have predictable / recurring revenue streams and substantial pricing power. Importantly, both

Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

5 months

Axon $AXON is firing on all cylinders...reported after the close and on the conference call. Comment from President: "Incredibly pleased with all segments of business and continue to see enormous opportunities in front of us" $63bn TAM public safety TAM. Up from $50bn. 122% net

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

2 months

Spotify $SPOT is raising prices again in the US and the stock is up ~5%. Individual +$1 or +9% to $11.99, Duo +$2 or +13% to $16.99 and Family Plan +$3 or +18% $19.99. Given the stock reaction, this move was likely sooner and/or larger vs. expectations. At the risk of stating

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

13 days

Tough couple of days for the P&L. Its funny how risk can happen slowly (or not at all) and then happen all at once. The market always has a way of humbling its participants. Those who are discipline and maintain perspective will ultimately be rewarded. During times like this,

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

5 months

I’ve been doing work on Reddit $RDDT ahead of the IPO – I think the deal gets priced at the high end or slightly above the current range ($31-34), and barring any volatility from the Wall Street Bets crowd (which appears to be against the company going public), I think it works

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

4 months

Jefferies flagged a @WSJ article this morning about how Google $GOOGL is expanding its in-house chip efforts to reduce reliance on $INTC, $NVDA and other outside chipmakers. This seems to be talking about the Axion CPUs, which use $ARM circuitry, and should pose limited read-thru

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

1 month

Does anyone have a view on the bitcoin miners’ opportunity to benefit from the AI trend given their significant secured power capacity? I ask more out of personal interest than from a professional investment perspective. Despite benefiting from a secular trend, these feel like

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

1 year

@spectatorindex If Wagner actually turns on Russia that’s really bad news for Russia… Wonder what % of Russia’s natural resource revenue streams come from Wagner’s presence in places like Africa…likely small but not immaterial.

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

3 months

Also important to call out Nvidia's $NVDA massive free cash flow generation...FCF was +465% y/y and +33% q/q and FCF margin was >50%. These are staggering numbers, particularly when added to a clean / net cash balance sheet. Its a cash flow machine that will allow them to

Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

3 months

Nvidia $NVDA reported after the close and I expect the stock to trade higher tomorrow. I can get to ~$35 EPS (street ~$31) in CY 2025, with upside to $40 in a bull case scenario. At $35 EPS and a stock price ~$1,000 – the stock is trading ~28-29x earnings. ~25x at $40 EPS. This

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

3 months

I think another important point on Nvidia $NVDA is how you keep your employees motivated when many have made generational wealth over the last few years. I think the answer comes down to leadership and that starts and ends with Jensen. Obviously he's able to craft, articulate

Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

3 months

Also important to call out Nvidia's $NVDA massive free cash flow generation...FCF was +465% y/y and +33% q/q and FCF margin was >50%. These are staggering numbers, particularly when added to a clean / net cash balance sheet. Its a cash flow machine that will allow them to

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

2 months

Best theory I’ve heard on Vertiv $VRT weakness is you have macro shops pressing industrials as some of the macro data has come back weaker – that weakness has left some weak hands in the momentum end of industrials space looking to take profits given massive outperformance.

Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

6 months

I own Vertiv $VRT (leader in power / cooling solutions for several end markets, but most importantly, data centers) and will continue to own. I’d imagine the stock continues to run into earnings on 2/21 after strong data center capex commentary from the hyper scalers and robust

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

4 months

Nvidia $NVDA with >75% market share is taking share - extremely impressive. The most important point here (obviously) is that they continue to have the highest ROI processor, despite premium pricing. Bodes well for the durability of margins...along with growing / high margin

Eric Jhonsa

@EricJhonsa

4 months

Morgan Stanley on $NVDA: "Faced with limited slots for AI processors, we are seeing some of the appetite for alternatives taking a back seat to the highest ROI processor, which continues to be NVIDIA."

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

4 months

I try to remove myself from the daily noise as an investor (vs. a trader). Whether CPI came in several basis points above or below consensus (CPI 3.5% y/y vs. 3.4% estimate and Core +3.8% y/y vs. 3.7% estimate) doesn't mean that much to me. What matters (and what we already knew)

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@RadnorCapital

1 year

(5/10) The Biden administration has this view that oil won’t be here in 5 years. Now they’re saying oil won’t be here in 10 years. You need climate literacy, energy literacy, and economic literacy for energy transition to happen, which the Biden administration does not possess…

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

3 months

I appreciate all the engagement and thoughtful feedback on the Wingstop $WING post below. Particularly those engaging directly. I always learn something. Others prefer to engage in less productive ways – this post is directed at those people… The purpose was to illustrate the

Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

3 months

We’ve owned Wingstop $WING in size since the IPO in 2015 at $19 / share – today the stock is close to ~$400 / share, or >20x return. The valuation is nearly impossible to justify here at ~100x 2025 earnings estimates (although it’s always been “expensive”), which is obviously

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@RadnorCapital

4 months

Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM (which makes ~90 percent of the world's advanced chips, powering everything including iPhones, AI, electric vehicles, fighter jets, etc.) reported this morning and the stock is down ~5%. I have no position here but always pay attention as it relates to

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

7 days

I don’t do many proprietary write ups on mega cap tech because I don’t feel there is much value I can add. I write about Nvidia $NVDA, but I’ve been writing about it well before it became a mega cap favorite. We own all the mega caps at varying position sizes, with Microsoft

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

3 months

Arista Networks $ANET reported – I don’t have exposure to the name, but wanted to call out the beat and raise as AI demand starts to inflect… For those unfamiliar, Arista is a leader in software-driven cloud networking solutions for large data center storage and computing

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@RadnorCapital

1 year

Buffett turned these two signs around when asked a question about banks 😂😂😂

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@RadnorCapital

5 months

I watched an interview with @satyanadella (CEO of Microsoft $MSFT) and Nicolai Tangen (CEO Of Norges Bank Investment Management) and thought some of Satya's thoughts were worth sharing... He said that at the height of industrial revolution in UK they spent ~10% of GDP building

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@RadnorCapital

4 months

A few comments from Jefferies Korea on the data center power theme… Expect global data center’s power usage to double by 2026, leading to bottlenecks in power supply. AI data center’s power usage is 2x vs general servers. IEA says AI data center power usage was 2.1% of total

Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

4 months

Chips keep getting more energy efficient – this hasn’t and won’t change. But just because something is getting more efficient, it doesn’t mean we’re going to use less of the input resource (electricity). That’s not how it works. Humans have an enormous capacity to consume data

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

2 months

Great piece in Barron’s by @serwer called “get ready for the sports investing revolution” A few interesting thoughts… “Waxman (referring to Alan Waxman the CEO of Sixth Street, a private equity firm with $75 billion AUM that has gone deep into sports) is also keen on women’s

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@RadnorCapital

2 months

Draft Kings $DKNG is up ~8% today on a couple of headlines… The preliminary NJ budget proposal came out and a sports betting / gambling tax hike was not included. This is an obvious relief following the progressive hike from IL last month. “US Supreme Court rejects bid to

Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

2 months

Draft Kings $DKNG was under pressure yesterday, and while further tax hikes are probable and not to be taken lightly, I think it was an overreaction and I continue to be bullish. Quick overview…sentiment in the online gambling space has turned increasingly negative over the

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

14 days

$UMG reported after the close in Europe and I expect the stock to trade down tomorrow. $WMG was down today in sympathy. Q2 results were largely in line, but the mix of business was meaningfully different than my expectations, with streaming and subscription growing ~4% vs.

Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

15 days

Spotify $SPOT reported this morning, and the stock is up ~12%. This has been and continues to be a core holding. Key metrics like premium subs, gross margin, and free cash flow all ahead of expectations. First of all, Daniel Ek @eldsjal runs an impressive conference call. He

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

3 months

The consumer is certainly showing signs of weakness as inflation and interest rates remain elevated. Massive fiscal stimulus and a healthy labor market have buoyed the economy until now, and while it’s too early to call an inflection, the data is clearly showing signs of

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

2 months

I listened to the Starbucks $SBUX @AcquiredFM episode with @HowardSchultz and thought it was a masterclass on leadership and humanity. I recommend others listen and think its worth 3 hours (link below). This post is more about Howard Schultz and lessons learned than it is about

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

29 days

I’ve owned Ecolab $ECL forever and wanted to flag the Stifel upgrade. This is a name to buy on pullbacks – most recently related to Covid impacting their institutional business (restaurants, hotels, etc.) and inflation impacting COGS / input costs before pricing could catch up.

Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

4 months

@NSLInvestments Thanks for this. Absolutely right. I own Ecolab $ECL and Veralto $VLTO which are levered to water treatment and testing. Know Xylem $XYL is a leader on the infrastructure side, but prefer the the recurring / opex levered nature of ECL and VLTO. Interestingly, the water needed to

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

2 months

Nvidia $NVDA is buying software startup shoreline. Looks like an interesting acquisition. Automated infrastructure remediation / incident automation. Would make sense if they are getting more serious about their own cloud infrastructure offering, which I think they are (see point

Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

2 months

A few random thoughts on Nvidia $NVDA (continues to be a core holding – I haven’t bought or sold stock recently, but continue to check my blind spots)… 1) it’s important to point out that just because big tech $MSFT $GOOGL $AMZN $META $ORCL etc. is spending so much on AI

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

4 months

Nvidia $NVDA trading ~26x CY 2025 EPS, around levels where the stock bottomed in December 2023, June 2022, and September 2019. The Blackwell GPU – first custom designed for GenAI – will start rolling out in 2H 2024, and provide order visibility through early CY 2025 at a minimum.

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

1 year

(2/10) We are at the onset of an upcycle with so much underinvestment the last 6-7 years. This leads us to believe that this will be like no other cycle that we’ve seen before.

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

5 months

Sport Radar $SRAD - leading provider of data and analytics to the sports ecosystem (most importantly sports betting books) reported this morning and the stock is up ~20% in early trading... Best picks and shovels play on the growth of online sports betting globally. Management

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

4 months

Marvell $MRVL hosted their “Accelerated Infrastructure for the AI Era” event in NYC yesterday – I unfortunately couldn’t attend but curious if people who did came away with anything incremental (customer / partnership buzz, new business opportunities, end market observations,

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

1 year

(10/10) Shale has gone from being the swing producer to an important part of supply. However, shale’s role in meeting the supply demand gap is very limited and it will not provide the needed growth going forward.

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

3 months

Tesla $TSLA said on their call they are currently using 35k H100s, with plans to add another 50k by year end. Meta $META just increased its annual capex outlook from $30-37bn to $35-40bn, with the uptick tied to accelerated investments in AI, while also noting 2025 would see an

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

4 months

Business Insider (...) suggests that $MSFT has a plan to triple its supply of GPUs in 2024 with 1.8mm installed by end of year (note that would put MSFT's build at roughly 3x the number $META has announced). Similarly, data center dynamics suggests MSFT will double its data

Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

4 months

Semis getting hammered again today with the $SOX down ~4%... Recent reports from $TSM and $ASML signaling a weaker than expected semi recovery outside of HPC /AI. Most semi’s that have exposure to AI also have exposure to other parts of the semi market that doesn’t appear as

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

3 months

M Science out with a report suggesting that Nvidia $NVDA gained GPU market share in April. I typically don't trade around the alt data, but pay attention to datapoints that could become trends. Pretty impressive to see a company with ~80% of the market, gain share.

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

1 year

(6/10) …we need energy reality. Oil will be here in 30 years as you need oil and gas to be competitive industrially and to have affordable energy for lower/middle class families.

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

2 months

“Elon Musk reportedly told Nvidia $NVDA to prioritize chip shipments to X and xAI ahead of Tesla $TSLA. CNBC, citing widely shared internal emails written by senior staff at Nvidia, reports the directive by Musk pushed back $500M in GPU shipments by months for Tesla, likely

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

3 months

Google Search is a ~$200bn business that has compounded growth ~15% for the last 5 years... $GOOGL

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

2 months

Nvidia + Microsoft + Apple = >$9.2 trillion in market cap, which is larger than the entire Chinese stock market... Just because we appear to be in a bubble (and entering a larger bubble) doesn't mean it has to pop. Valuation is not a catalyst. Ton of money flowing through the

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

4 months

Apparently $DELL indicated GPU shipment lead times have reduced to 8-12 weeks (vs. up to 40 weeks). Obviously a risk to keep an eye on as supply / demand slowly comes into balance.

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

2 months

JP Morgan downgrading $CAVA on valuation...with ~$33mm EV/store despite current AUVs of $2.6mm, hitting a record relative industry high vs $CMG currently at ~$25mm

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

1 year

(7/10) Fatih Birol (International Energy Agency) is one of the smartest guys on energy transition. If you talk to him candidly, he’ll say you will need oil and gas for decades. There is a .013% chance we get to net zero - he thinks oil has a lot of legs to it.

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

3 months

Universal Music Group $UMG (core holding with position established in the mid-high teens) finally inked a licensing agreement with TikTok so their artists songs can be played / featured on the platform. UMG cut their music from the platform in early February, understanding that

Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

1 year

Love the Universal Music Group $UMG business model...music has both defensive and secular growth characteristics...and UMG is the best house on the block. A few random thoughts: Music, like many other categories, follows the power law, which says that a vast majority of music

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

2 months

“Workers at TJ Maxx and Marshalls are wearing police-like body cameras. Here’s how it’s going” – link below. Sadly, bullish for Axon $AXON and their market opportunity. I continue to be excited about their new Draft One product, which uses AI to automate report writing for

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

4 months

Spotify $SPOT reported this morning and the stock closed +12%. Yesterday I wrote about how I was nervous about MAUs and social charges (impacting profitability), but didn’t plan to lighten up on my position, because my thesis was intact (also because trying to call quarters

Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

4 months

Spotify $SPOT reports tomorrow morning and investors are worried that any hair on the print will lead to selling, particularly after the Netflix $NFLX reaction last week. With the stock >30x CY 2025 EBITDA, I agree that the print needs to be clean. I own it (and have made money

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

3 months

“Unlike in past periods of technological paradigm shifts, this new technology favors incumbents who are deploying their financial and intellectual war chests to win the AI arms race,” - Dan Loeb on AI

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

4 months

Opportunity to add to Draft Kings $DKNG on weakness. Stock is overreacting to NCAA president Charlie Baker's comments about banning player prop bets in college games. Met Charlie last year and this isn't surprising - he's been talking about it for a while. Several analysts out

Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

10 months

I’ve been bullish on the US online sports betting industry since the Supreme Court struck down the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA) in 2018, allowing each of the 50 states to determine its own sports betting laws. I certainly wasn’t alone, given the natural

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

3 months

"New York, DraftKings both report best sports betting week ever" - link below $DKNG $FLTR "It was also a record revenue week for DraftKings in the state, whose winnings amounted to more than half of the GGR total ($36.5 million) thanks to a sky-high 15.8% hold. That is not only

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

2 months

Apple $AAPL has always been late to the game, but with a better product. And in a world where LLMs become increasingly commoditized (still unclear), Apple will look smart for not investing in their own. Instead, they can use the promise of their massive / loyal hardware install

Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

3 months

A good friend of mine who holds an influential position at Apple $AAPL was with leadership this week and shared this comment with me: "Apple may be mute, but we’re certainly not deaf..." Obviously referring to AI and Apple's push into inference at the edge, running LLMs locally

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

14 days

I feel like Google's $GOOGL strength in Search and acceleration in Cloud reinforce that it is an AI winner.

TechStockFundamentals

@TechFundies

14 days

$GOOGL reported a solid qtr. Great assets at a good price. My numbers are ahead of the street and risk / reward still attractive. 33% upside to 25x my 2025 GAAP EPS (trading at 25x 2024 today), 59% upside on 2026 EPS. -12% downside to 18x street 2025 GAAP EPS. Search revs of

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

3 months

Opportunity to accumulate more shares of Draft Kings $DKNG (core holding since SPAC listing at $10) with the stock down marginally after another beat and raise quarter, despite unfavorable / customer friendly sport outcomes in the quarter. Street numbers should move higher and

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

4 months

Semi’s selling off hard this afternoon on the back of a disappointing $ASML print, guide and order book. 3rd straight quarter of weak foundry / logic orders, weak EUV, and strong China (equates to more mature nodes). Investors concerned about Q1/H1 2024 demand for semi’s,

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

4 months

I saw a stat from The Private Wealth Guy on Instagram that I thought was worth sharing... "Americans spent over $113bn on lottery tickets last year, more than they spent on movies, books, concerts and sports tickets - COMBINED." Americans love to gamble. Investing in the

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

5 months

I met with Reddit $RDDT management this morning. The deal probably works and the near term set up (accelerating near term fundamentals coupled with sandbagged estimates) is attractive, but think the long term opportunity is capped. Obviously willing to change my mind if

Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

5 months

I’ve been doing work on Reddit $RDDT ahead of the IPO – I think the deal gets priced at the high end or slightly above the current range ($31-34), and barring any volatility from the Wall Street Bets crowd (which appears to be against the company going public), I think it works

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

4 months

Vertiv $VRT down ~5% today after being down yesterday. This is the type of breather that I wrote about last Friday (see below). Nothing company specific, as the entire AI ecosystem (see $NVDA & $SMCI, etc.) is under pressure.

Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

4 months

Vertiv $VRT initiated outperform at Oppenheimer, price target $96 (22.5X FY25E EBITDA). Noah Kaye (the analyst) is a smart guy and has the long term thesis right, but important to note that when sentiment / positioning gets this bullish, its often time for a short term breather.

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

13 days

I've written about Axon's $AXON acquisition of Dedrone, but after the Trump assassination attempt, there's no reason these defense drones wont be over every major outdoor event. Obviously sad that this is necessary, but that's where the puck is going in public safety. "Public

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

3 months

I thought I'd provide a bit more color on Axon $AXON - the stock is taking a breather after doubling over the last 9-10 months...given the strong fundamentals and market opportunity, I suspect this breather wont last long... And as always, if someone has taken the other side of

Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

3 months

Axon $AXON is trading down a bit this morning but I continue to think this is one of the best franchises out there to own and their cloud / services revenue just grew 51% y/y (no longer just a hardware / products company)... Also, their new DraftOne product which uses AI and the

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Radnor Capital

@RadnorCapital

12 days

Honest question - why does David Zaslav make so much money? Or is it well understood that he's overpaid?

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