Banana Capital @banana_capital_ Twitter profile

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Banana Capital

6 months

Until now I allocated 10% of my portfolio into this stock. I plan to allocate more. My pick is better, safer and cheaper than @BillAckman $TASE purchase. I closed the following positions: $OXY $LUV $SRG

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

2 months

$PDD stock in the trash bin. Company is dead, they cant sell. Revenue only increased 86% in a year and 11% since last quarter. Operating profit is miserable, only increased 156% in a year. Dead company.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

1 year

Morgan Stanley analysts included $EVVTY Evolution Gaming in the list of the companies with the widest moats in the world. Link:

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

3 months

$BABA buybacks table. At this pace they are going to exceed 20B in buyacks this year. It's very significant for a market cap of about 170B and an EV below 140B.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

4 months

This is unequivocal proof that $WBA is ran by incapable morons. They spent $14B in buybacks between 2017 and 2019 with stock price between 80$ and 60$. Stock is now trading at 11.8$. Management needs to be fired, dividend should be suspended and debt needs to be paid.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

5 months

@JRambo0810 You dont get it. Buying GPUs is a recurring expense now.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

4 months

The Finnish small cap I bought recently: * >60% insider ownership * ROIC > 50%, never below 20% in the last decade * >30% profit margins, growing and very stable * net cash * dividend >7% * equity tripled since 2015, despite dividends Why is it cheap then?

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

9 months

I initiated position in $CTT, CTT Correios de Portugal. I allocated about 5% of my portfolio to it. For me this position is a mix of deep value and special situation. Here is my thesis:

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

3 months

My hurdle rate is $WBD. I am struggling to find better opportunities (outside China) better than $WBD. I am pretty sure it is the safest bet in the US above 5B market cap for an expected return >15%

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

4 months

The average investor buys technology stocks that need crazy amounts of investments to maintain flimsy leads while the best investors are buying airports, pipelines, railroads, funeral homes and insurers.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

6 months

I think I hit gold. FCF is growing at almost 20% CAGR since 2015 and is now trading below 11x EV/FCF. It's not far from being a serial acquirer. That's why I am taking so long, it's a bit complex to analyze. btw the CEO bought shares very recently.

Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

6 months

What do you do when you see a boring company with a gigantic moat and net profit margins above 30% trading for 12x EV/FCF?

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

2 months

$WBD net debt: 30th June 2022: 53.2B 30th June 2024: 37.3B

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

2 months

$V is such a certain business that you can compare it with a bond. $V makes 9.4$ per share in FCF minus stock compensation. These cash flows per share grow at 13% CAGR since 2014. At 268$ per share that is about 3.5% yield. It's like a bond with a growing coupon.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

5 months

$WBD situation is actually funny. You could look at it and say it generates 4B FCF yearly when Depreciation and Amortization stabilize. Take the 40B of net debt out and it's worth 0B. With a multiple of EV/FCF of 10x this the company is worth 0B in EV.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

6 months

$BABA

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

3 months

$WBD went below 7$ for a few moments. - 2.5$ of free cash flow per share - 19.2$ of debt per share at fixed rate of 4.6% Quarterly operating expenses were cut in more than 3B since the merger in 2022. Debt is being paid at a pace of about 5B per year. This one is easy.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

6 months

This is $WBD debt structure. You don't pay down debt costing below the FED funds rate. You buy short term treasuries yielding 5.5% and wait. $WBD shouldn't deleverage.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

1 year

My thoughts on $RH. This one is difficult. I waited a few weeks to let my thoughts consolidate. Pros: * visionary CEO, believes in himself and in the brand * CEO owns 27% of the stock (own math) * 48% gross margins * 10% net income margins

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

1 year

$BABA shareholders waiting for returns.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

7 months

I paid less tha 6x EV/FCF for $CTT. I have been adding up to it since I posted my thesis. The co. posted results, FCF increased from 67M to 94M yoy Net debt:-39M. Market cap:3.58€ is 515M EV/FCF = 5x It got cheaper. Metrics look good. Dividend increased to 0.17

Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

9 months

I initiated position in $CTT, CTT Correios de Portugal. I allocated about 5% of my portfolio to it. For me this position is a mix of deep value and special situation. Here is my thesis:

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

5 months

@JRambo0810 I was joking. The capex spend will slow down eventually as investors demand results.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

9 months

Another amazing lecture by @MohnishPabrai My search for companies is similar to what he describes. We search for anomalies. You can't simply value a company. You must justify the anomaly in pricing.

Mohnish Pabrai's Q&A at Clemson University - Wall Street South...

Mohnish Pabrai's Q&A at Clemson University - Wall Street South Investment Club on November 13, 2023. ...

www.youtube.com

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

1 year

@leadlagreport 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 🤣 🤣🤣🤣🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣🤣 🤣🤣 🤣 🤣

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

1 year

$BABA is FINALLY ramping buybacks.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

6 months

FCF per share grew at 11% CAGR for the past decade 9% insider ownership Not seeing any hair. I am going to change my portfolio quite a bit for this one. I will talk about it most likely before the end of the week.

Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

6 months

What do you do when you see a boring company with a gigantic moat and net profit margins above 30% trading for 12x EV/FCF?

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

2 months

The only reason I don't buy $AMZN at about 150$-160$ is stock compensation. 23B of SBC in a year, half of the free cash flow, is obscene.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

4 months

I think we can all agree that $ARM has a lot of upside with 3B revenue and a market cap of 178B. It's not going to hurt anybody.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

6 months

$META delivering 12B FCF in a quarter, close to best cash flow generation in a year. Every single metric improved. Profit, revenue, less headcount, Stock down 12% 🤣

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

13 days

Suddenly $PDD is not a fraud anymore.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

10 months

$BTI is being sold off because people don't understand accounting 😂 The write down will reduce profits, tax and boost cash flows. It's amazing. Nothing else changes for the company.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

3 months

$BABA never been this cheap despite stock price not being at all time lows.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

3 months

$DJT has made $770K in revenue last quarter. Market cap is now $9B. It's worth 0 but I wouldn't short it. It's fueled by collective dementia.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

1 year

My final take on Evolution Gaming $EVO $EVVTY It's a screenshot because I print my notes to avoid editing. I like to review my past opinions frequently.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

5 months

That's around 19$ per share in 5 years. That's 20% per year in your investment during 5 years. $WBD is one of the best bargains out there.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

2 months

More than 50% of my net worth is $META. Happened by accident, but I will explain here why I hold it. I think some reasons will surprise you. 1. Instagram UI The biggest issue software startups face is the transition from no profit to profit.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

2 months

I bought $WBD precisely to benefit from big impairment losses and amortization/depreciation charges. The company will run tax free for a while allowing to pay for the debt. Added below 6.95$. It's my third biggest position behind $BABA and $META in terms of cost.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

1 year

My deep dive status Just finished: $WBD $RH Ongoing: $EVVTY finalizing $CROX revisit Up next: $AZO 1st next $TOI 2nd $GTX I won't finish these names until November.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

3 months

Dead company. Sell it. I own it.

Koyfin

@KoyfinCharts

3 months

$EVO Evolution AB is trading at its lowest forward PE and EV/EBIT in a decade.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

5 months

Some businesses are so good, it's crazy. My next write up is about a small business that employs a few dozen people and makes about 10M net income every 3 months. Very high insider ownership. ROIC > 50%. There are no reports in English.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

2 months

When chinese stocks have good quarters it's because they lie. When quarters are bad it's because they were hiding the truth all along and they suck. Stock goes down in both cases.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

6 months

$PYPL guidance is horrible. Restructuring charges of $175 million doesn't justify this. Spent 1.5B on stock base compensation in last 12 months. They did 5B in FCF. EV is 68B 19x EV/(FCF-SBC) is very expensive for a stock with decreasing earnings. Stock is up 5% pre market 😂

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

1 year

People don't understand how much money $CVS is making. They don't need to spend money to increase sales. The adjusted FCF yield is over 20% atm and it's going much higher next year.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

7 months

$PDD is likely the most undervalued mega cap stock in the world. Operating expenses increased 42%. Revenues tripled. Profits doubled. They generated 13.2B in operating cash flows. They usually spend 1B in stock comp. They are trading around EV/FCF of 12x

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

2 months

@patientinvestt If they liquidated today... If I zero the goodwill and intangibles and apply a 50% haircut to plant and equipment you get a liquidation value of about 20B and I didn't even apply a haircut to investments, inventory etc.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

6 months

$BABA management decision of doing mild buybacks is proven to be the correct one. They knew it would go lower 🤣

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

1 year

@TheQuranicPath Exact same sound as the one that hit the hospital.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

4 months

* no documents in English, everything is in Finnish * CEO swap, he is joining the board * very boring business * no AI * no buybacks 😪 * small cap You can read a summary of more than 80h of research here:

An asset management firm in Finland

A good business with very high insider ownership, very high returns on capital and is favored by the rapid aging of Finland's population.

bananacapital.substack.com

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

10 months

Understanding Constellation Software business model hit me hard. Changed my life to be honest. It hit me as hard as the first time I read the "Intelligent Investor". Now I want to build a small niche software business and not sell it. $TOI $CSU

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

8 months

$WBD results are not the best. I still think it's worth 12 to 15x FCF. Minus the 44B of debt that is: 46B at best - 19$ per share 28B at worst - 11$ per share This valuation is quite pessimistic. The restructuring costed them 1.1B and the strikes a bit too. It's quite cheap.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

3 months

I told you.

Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

3 months

Dear friends, this is what Wallstreet does when they are very interested in company: Without giving any proper reason they use the media to exacerbate the existing momentum to facilitate a transaction. They want $WBD to trade lower. They want to buy it.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

9 months

I really like serial aquirers like $CSU, $BRK, $TEQ, $LIFCO I would put 40% of my networth in $LIFCO at 15x EV/FCF without a problem. If you can acquire good companies at cheap prices by yourself you shouldn't buy expensive serial acquirers. Be your own serial acquirer.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

9 months

What stupid things will people say at the peak? This:

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

2 months

Technical investors vs Cash flow per share investors

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

6 months

Morning. $PARA and $PARAA shareholders have the same economical rights.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

5 months

Tobacco companies are not dying. $PM $BTI

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

1 year

$PARA revenue graph shows you a few things: * Subscription revenue is sticky and is growing well * TV Media revenue is decreasing slowly * and is cyclical. The best quarter is Q4 * Films Entertainment revenue is bumpy between 630 and 930M $PARA looks better after Q4's.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

1 year

Took me 10 minutes to clone @MohnishPabrai and buy $AMR. It is a 1-foot hurdle. They make most of the money selling metallurgic coal. A type of coal used to source carbon in the production or steel. They guided for 109$/ton, they are currently selling it for 191.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

4 months

"If you see a CEO out there signing autographs in tits, sell the stock" - Buffet

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

1 year

Investing in Berkshire feels like cheating. It's like a free money glitch irl. Since I invested earnings compounded at 10.5%. I bought it below fair value so I am doing even better than 10.5%. I dont even read the 10k like I do for all my other investments in the US.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

6 months

@patientinvestt You updating your valuation because of sentiment?

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

5 months

When the pitch is too good to be true and you suddenly find out insider ownership is 50%.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

4 months

The SP500 is expensive. If you consider the whole macro picture, it's ridiculously expensive. Check below.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

3 months

$WBD total costs and expenses: 3 months ending 30 June 2022 $13.466B 3 months ending 31 March 2024 $10.225B Diff $3.2B Selling, general and administrative was reduced in $1.3B. Cost of revenues (excluding depreciation/amortization) was reduced in $567M

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

8 months

$WBD and $PARA will likely be among the biggest winners with the AI revolution and they literally on sale. I can imagine $WBD and $PARA telling in an earnings call they saved a few hundred million because they generated some scenes and voices with AI.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

1 year

@GuyDealership Not necessarily.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

1 year

$BABA has $75B in cash and short term investments plus $11B in receivables. About $22.8 net cash per share. The stock is at 80$ and have 40B approved for buybacks until 2025. I start to wonder if they have agreement with the CCP not reward shareholders.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

3 months

Notice that he doesn't buy anything above 2y to lock yield. Buffet is all in on the fact that as soon as rates are cut, treasury yields will drop and opportunities will emerge.

unusual_whales

@unusual_whales

3 months

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, $BRK.A, owns 3% of the entire U.S. Treasury Bill market, roughly $158 billion worth, per JPMorgan, $JPM.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

5 months

$AMC raising 250M. That was quick.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

5 months

$CTT is going to cancel 7.65M shares. Total shares after cancellation will be: 130.817M At current price of 4.57€ per share, market cap is 597M. Net debt is -63.9M, EV is 533M. Estimated EBIT for 2024 is above 88M.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

2 months

Going forward I don't know if $INTC will create good chips but I believe $WBD will continue making great movies.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

1 year

Irrational fear will likely wipe out $PACW. I lost 14% of my net worth. I don't want to cry over it, I want to reinforce my investment rules 📜 * Avoid leverage * Never get into an investment without understanding it * Discount what you don't know

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

13 days

When you find, for the first time, a stock with high profitability, well run, high insider ownership, low debt at very very low valuation in a decent jurisdiction it's an indescribable feeling. It happens so rarely.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

1 year

My Portfolio atm: * $META about 40% * $BABA $CVS about 15% each * $PROSUS, $EVVTY, $BBY, $WBD, $ALLY, $BRK & $EWBC about 5% each * $OXY, $AMR, $CE less than 5% I own one secret small cap and a bit of $SRG. I am short $NVDA and 2 more. This is so much work. It's crazy.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

1 year

If all non-insured deposits were withdrawn from $PACW, the bank could still afford to pay the interest for the liquidity indefinitely. Math: 28.9B total deposits as of 24th April. 73% of those are FDIC insured. Deposits went up $1.8B from 20th of March to 24th of April. 💵

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

2 months

Business is a lie, that's why Amazon is copying them.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

8 months

$AMR CEO sold 60k shares. He owned 79k before this sale.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

6 months

What do you do when you see a boring company with a gigantic moat and net profit margins above 30% trading for 12x EV/FCF?

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

11 months

$CVS is a cash cow.

Hunter*

@y2khunter

11 months

what opinion will you defend like this?

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

1 year

I am short $AAPL $NVDA. I am long $PACW $PACWP. Wish me luck.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

2 months

$WBD quarterly operating expenses: 30th June 2022: 4.8B 30th June 2024: 4.2B Cost of goods sold: 30th June 2022: 6.6B 30th June 2024: 6.2B That adds up to 4B per year in savings.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

3 months

Bought $JMT.LS: * it's trading below 5x cash flow from op * 400M in net cash * revenues grow at 12% CAGR since 2016 * insider ownership > 50% * stock is at an historic bottom * I shop at Pingo Doce very often * cheaper than $COST and Dino Polska

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

5 months

Robert Vinall trades Q1 2024 $PDD $CVNA

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

5 months

Insider bought $WBD.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

8 months

$PARA debt looks great.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

5 months

I think the $WBD story is playing out well still: The best parts: * Operating exepenses decreased from 13.5B in Q2 2022 to 10.2 in Q1 2024 - 3.3B quarterly gain here. * Company is now able to generate significant FCF every quarter. * DTC is growing well outside US

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

5 months

Kudus to @KaranMGurnani for showing his results despite not being the best and not stop reporting when everything doesn't go right at first attempt. Integrity is rare.

Etoro portfolio April 2024 update (Paramount, Alibaba)

Disclaimer: None of the information in this video should be considered as advice. This video was made for entertainment purposes only. None of the content is...

www.youtube.com

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

5 months

You can give 7.70$ for a share today, ignore it, wait 5 years and 15B of debt will be paid and the interest is cut in half. How much is it worth then? Can you imagine $WBD making 6B in FCF with 25B of net debt. That's an EV of 47B on 12x EV/FCF.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

1 year

I am back on $PACW. I won't take @Bloomberg as a reputable news source ever again. My thesis: 6.7B of cash 4.8B of AFS worth slightly less after rate hike 2.3B HTM's at cost 2.8B loans for sale at cost 25.5B loans and leases 2B of other assets

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

4 months

I have another stock that passes my preliminary requirements to be held for life. I will write about it in my next article. But first I have a lot of research to do. It's a super high quality and boring business trading below 15x EV/FCF (historical lows).

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

11 months

Buybacks would be a much better option.

A.J. Button

@AJButton2

11 months

ALIBABA DECLARES DIVIDEND! $BABA

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

2 months

"Chinese stocks cant return capital to shareholders too because of the CCP" - Westerner subject to 30% withhold tax (Foreigners in China are subject to 10% withhold tax on dividends)

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

7 months

"Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble." - W. Buffet

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

6 months

Microstrategy $MSTR did $496M in sales in 2023 (revenue is shrinking btw). That's about $1.18M per day in revenue. Now check how much stock does the CEO sell everyday. I fear shorting this because of bitcoin ponzi dynamics but holy crap. This is unbelievable.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

1 year

@CitronResearch Insane that people have to defend opinions in court.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

1 year

@patientinvestt $PARA and $WBD are crazy cheap.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

5 months

My $WBD thesis. No need to complicate what is simple.

Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

5 months

@Fenmagne It's decent business that generates a lot of cash flow. Debt is big but fixed and payments are very delayed. Management is doing a very good work in cutting expenses. It's trading at a very cheap valuation. Many super investors bought.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

3 months

I still have a limit order to buy $WBD at $6.96. This order was missed by 2 cents I believe. Very annoying.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

17 days

Bring back the buybacks below 80$ immediately $BABA

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

5 months

$CVS another director buys the stock

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

10 months

We are in the "wow, I am smart" phase of the market. People are showing results based on stupid market fluctuations. Even self proclaimed value investors are doing this. Then the market will drag it's feet or decrease slightly.

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Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

1 year

"HEYDUDE Brand: Revenues during the third quarter decreased 8.3% to $246.9 million." $CROX

Banana Capital

@banana_capital_

1 year

@alien_Invest0r @deusexdividend $CROX decided to acquire companies to expand because they think they can do it. They are lucky ignorants. They should be aiming for higher gross margins and lowering prices. They should be like $KO when in some places they used to be cheaper than water.

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