ToffCap @ToffCap Twitter profile | Pikagi

Pikagi

ToffCap

@ToffCap

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Fund manager. Looking at LOTS of companies and sharing ideas | No advice, just opinions | Free Research and Event-Driven ideas at

https://t.co/e3LfxHHKsb

Joined August 2020

Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

4 days

We're out with Toffcap Monday Monitor #31 , our overview of interesting event-driven trades and companies🔥 As often, there's a lot going on💪 Check it out @ToffCap (no paywall) It takes a lot of effort to provide this service (for free!). We would appreciate if you could share

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

2 months

Paypal $PYPL deep dive from Wedgewood Partners👇

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

2 months

The number 1 rule in investing is to read read read, incl. stuff outside of your comfort zone. Here's a bunch of accounts / fund letters we follow, with tons of varying views 👇 Fairlight Alpha Fund @Fairlight_Cap Deep Sail Capital @DeepSailCapital LRT Capital Management

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

2 months

Dear Fintwit, Can we - please - stop using the same tickers for crypto 💩 coins as my stocks? 🙏🏼

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

6 months

One of the drawbacks of looking at basically everything, is that one can lose focus of its core. Silently stray away, so to speak. That's why I love these basic, small reminders of what's 'core'👇 Greenblatt: just look for a good business and don't pay too much (aka KISS)

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

8 months

Brodrene A&O Johansen $AOJ is a distributor of home furnishing equipment (a.o. heating, plumbing, electric and water supplies). After a few stagnant years on the back of covid tailwinds, $AOJ seems set for strong growth ahead at a very reasonable valuation. You can buy a market

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

1 month

When @dsmoak98 writes, we read. Interesting new highlight, Leon’s Furniture $LNF in the recent Q2 letter👇 Smoak sees +65-150% potential.

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

3 months

Met my buddy Chris yesterday. He always amazes me. The guy has been generating ~18% returns pa over the past 15 years. This is in itself a fine result, but very impressive if you consider: 1. He spends on average 5 hours per quarter (!) researching stocks 2. His universe (not

@sidecarcap

Sidecar Investor

3 months

Early in my buy side career a client came to our fund’s year-end review with data showing performance would have been 5% better if we held the Jan 1 portfolio and played golf all year. A lot of seat-shifting rationalizing followed. This was a valuable early lesson.

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

5 months

Rehashing 10 great quotes from 👑Stanley Druckenmiller as food for thought 👇 1. I never use valuation to time the market. I use liquidity considerations and technical analysis for timing. Valuation only tells me how far the market can go once a catalyst enters the picture to

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

4 months

Every now and then I run Greenblatt's Magic Formula and check what companies it returns. I often find quite a few interesting ones. These are the 50 stocks that the formula churned out today, based on a min. market cap of $50m👇

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

8 months

This is what came up (so far) 👇 Azeus Systems $BBW.SI Teck Resources $TECK StoneCo $STNE Burford Capital $BUR Sanova Medtech $SMTI RCI Hospitality $RICK Talen Energy $TLNE Hammond Power $HPS RF Capital $RCG Calumet $CLMT NETLease $NLOP ADF Group $DRX Knight Therapeutics $GUD

@ToffCap

ToffCap

8 months

What’s your top pick for 2024? (been pretty much off the grid over the past few days, so I’m sure I’ve missed many similar posts; so thanks)

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

3 months

When I started out I learned that you need to look for high ROIC companies with high reinvestment rates at low risk. After roughly two decades investing I can say that the highest returns were achieved with high risk, crappy ROIC companies with seemingly few reinvestment

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

11 months

I once (co-)managed a 50m fund and a >1bn fund at the same time. The 50m fund: two people deciding within minutes to learn everything possible about this interesting new find, and booking a trip to meet mgt. The bn+ fund: ten people taking an hour to discuss how US tech and the

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

3 months

What are some of the best write-ups on companies / industries you have ever read? Not important how old the piece is.

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

2 months

Care to share what your top 2 positions are and why? Thanks.

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

11 months

The more work I do on InPost $INPST (~EUR 5.3bn market cap), the better the story becomes. I believe there is still multi-bagger potential left here. InPost is a Polish operator of Automated Parcel Machine lockers, listed in Amsterdam. It's a rather unique and high-growing

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

1 year

If I could go back to my junior portfolio manager days, I would have studied short reports more often. Here is a list of short sellers I like (in no particular order) and are on X 👇. Hope you find it useful. White Diamond @WhiteResearch NINGI Research @NingiResearch Guasty

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

1 year

At Toffcap we read a lot of fund letters. We’re sharing our long list (>150) in batches, and we will update this thread regularly 👇. Hope you’ll find it useful. (1/n)

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

2 months

Every now and then I run Greenblatt's Magic Formula and check what companies it returns. I often find quite a few interesting ones. These are the 50 stocks that the formula churned out today, based on a market cap of >$50m👇

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

11 months

Looks like a ton of great suggestions 👌 $SHFS $PLCE $THEP $AOJB $EPSIL $LGT.B $CGM $THEP $JAKK $TRVG $PBPB $RDVT $FC $IBP $HARVIA $OCTM $CCRD $NSSC $MODG $AMRK $PRN $EHL $BFIT $HROW $ANIC $ADMCM $INSTAL $OEMB $HP3A $DAC $MATR $GSM $MXG

@ToffCap

ToffCap

11 months

Many good opportunities currently in the small- and mid-cap space. Care to share what’s top of your list?

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

4 months

The longer I invest, the less time I spend valuing companies…

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

6 months

We're out with the first one - $DNO 👍. We're generally not much involved in the energy space, but $DNO is mighty interesting. A net cash, cash flow generating oil & gas company trading at <2x ev/ebitda, with a potential very large (and imminent) catalyst that will supercharge

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

7 months

Very interesting times ahead for the blog. Over the next few weeks we'll be posting about... - A net cash mid-capper in the Energy space trading at single-digit ev/ebitda, with a potential very large catalyst on the horizon, - A quality (and very cheap) compounder, with >30%

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

1 year

Here at Toffcap we read a LOT of fund letters, for idea generation of course, but mainly to see how smart fund managers tackle certain industries / challenges. Here are some very smart investors that we respect (and are killing it this year), and are on X👇 Fairlight Alpha

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

13 days

Interesting Sky Harbour $SKYH deep dive from @alexbossert 👇

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

14 days

Every time we find an interesting growth story, we immediately check if there's a cheap way to leverage our position with eg options, warrants. Sky Harbour $SKYH fits the bill, a Q1 2022 de-SPAC (thus with warrants outstanding). While not yet visible in the numbers, Sky Harbour

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

29 days

Interesting Kraken Robotics $PNG deep dive in @DeepSailCapital 's recent Q2 letter. At 15x FY26 ev/ebitda, DSC sees +400% upside potential.

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

6 months

Interesting deep dive from Bronte Capital into Hibbett $HIBB 👇

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

4 months

I continue to be surprised by the many accounts on here doing really nice work, but with relatively few followers.. ...but also quite a few accounts posting random Buffett/Lynch quotes with way too many followers. What does that say?🤷‍♂️

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

11 months

I’m currently taking a long look at Chemicals. There’s so much bad sentiment at the moment; >90% of the clients I talk to are absolutely disgusted by the sector and don’t even have it on their radar. That’s good news for me. Yes, we are in a bad place; the downturn has been

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

6 months

Still working through this list of Polish gems 👇. Any comments, additions, companies that should be prioritised, etc? Inpost $INSPT Mercor $MCR.WA Livechat Software $LVC.WA Dino Polska $DNP.WA Synektik $SNT.WA Tarczynski $TAR.WA Eurotel $ETL.WA Debica $DPC.WA Monnari Trade

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

14 days

Every time we find an interesting growth story, we immediately check if there's a cheap way to leverage our position with eg options, warrants. Sky Harbour $SKYH fits the bill, a Q1 2022 de-SPAC (thus with warrants outstanding). While not yet visible in the numbers, Sky Harbour

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

10 months

Here's a few quotes from the great Stanley Druckenmiller as food for thought: 1. I never use valuation to time the market. I use liquidity considerations and technical analysis for timing. Valuation only tells me how far the market can go once a catalyst enters the picture to

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

3 months

10k! What a great milestone. Thanks to all of you following🔥 I remember when I was still posting into a void. Particularly grateful to those accounts that were a big help getting here👇. These are some of my favorite accounts👌 If you don't follow them, shame on you! (please

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

4 months

Thanks, will definitely look into a few of these👌 Hammon Manufacturing $HMM/A Gildan Activewear $GIL Boston Omaha $BOC Vinci Partners $VINP Howard Hughes $HHH M-Tron Industries $MPTI Reach Subsea $REACH Edil San Felice $ESF Duratec $DUR California Nanotech $CANOF MT Hoejgaard

@ToffCap

ToffCap

4 months

Any suggestions for 👌 companies I should be looking at?

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

3 months

Busted SPACs are such a fertile hunting ground at the moment. I can’t get enough of these. They’re either interesting from a ‘might work if not liquidation’ point of view or they’re growing and profitable but ignored because ‘SPAC’. Any favourites on your list? We regularly

@ToffCap

ToffCap

11 months

Nuvation $NUVB is a busted biotech SPAC with >$600m net cash on balance sheet, trading at a market cap of ~$260m. The company is currently pursuing its last trials. If these are a success, the stock could have some interesting upside. Otherwise, $NUVB could become a

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

4 months

After c. +50% since my first posting, InPost $INPST remains a very attractive story for the longer term. Despite the strong run, I believe there's still multi-bagger potential left here and that the story will accelerate going forward. As a reminder, InPost is a Polish

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

11 months

Interesting PayPal $PYPL deep dive in Manole Capital's Q3 letter. manolecapital. com

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

11 months

I’m currently focussing on companies with relatively high leverage and good fcf generation. The kind where operating earnings are stable/growing but eps is declining due to higher interest rates. I’m finding many of such companies experience pressure on share prices while they

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

2 months

This is Greenland Resources $MOLY, a nice little 'resource option'. Look at the chart below. Do you notice a trend? Insiders seem to be scooping up as much shares as possible.

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

1 year

This is what came up. Quite a few interesting names 👇 Eurosnack $ECK.WA Spyrosoft $SPR.WA Wittchen $WTN.WA Asseco $ASE.WA Ifirma $IFI.WA Ambra $AMB.WA Digital Network $DIG.WA Mobruk $MBR.WA Pepco $PCO.AW Auto Partner $APR.WA Inpost $INSPT Aplisens $APL.WA We’ll discuss Inpost

@ToffCap

ToffCap

1 year

On the back of this, anyone have interesting Polish companies on their list? I'll be traveling to Poland regularly in the future; would be great to check out a few companies. I'm diving deeper in Inpost $INPST and Aplisens $APN; what are other (potential) Polish gems?

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

2 months

Friends, we need some help. We cleaned up quite a bit👇. Our watchlist is full, but most of the ideas are special sits and we don't want too many. We're looking for good, multi-year investments, target 2x in 2 years, 3x in 3 years... Earnings growth + multiple expansion. 🙏🙏

@ToffCap

ToffCap

2 months

We've been pruning the portfolio quite a bit these last few weeks. Plenty of ideas, but most of them these days are in the special sit bucket, which tend to clutter up the portfolio. So every now and then we take a step back and see what's truly core or not. Pruning always

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

9 months

When you provide lots of content - for free - that would otherwise cost plenty of time to research or $$, and some people just complain...

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

5 months

After 15 years my wife still can't comprehend how I can listen to company conference calls when going for a run. Some things only you guys understand ❤️‍🔥

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

2 months

I really hate it when I put a new very interesting idea on the watchlist with the intention of 'doing the works asap'... and then the shares start running

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

5 days

The longer I invest, the less time I spend valuing companies…

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

11 days

Now that most companies reported it's interesting to run Greenblatt's Magic Formula and check what companies it returns. I often find quite a few interesting ones. These are the 50 stocks that the formula churned out today, based on a market cap of >$50m👇

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

11 months

Many good opportunities currently in the small- and mid-cap space. Care to share what’s top of your list?

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

2 months

5,000 subs! What a great milestone🥳. Thank you all! Particularly proud of our paid subs, which have been trending exactly in line with expectations😉 We'll continue to grow our content, both with company write-ups and our TMM (our overview of interesting event-driven action)

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

1 year

Final list (suggestions kept coming in 👌). Polish gems according to Fintwit. Definitely some potential here 👇 Mercor $MCR.WA Livechat Software $LVC.WA Dino Polska $DNP.WA Synektik $SNT.WA Tarczynski $TAR.WA Eurotel $ETL.WA Debica $DPC.WA Monnari Trade $MON.WA Sygnity $SGN.WA

@ToffCap

ToffCap

1 year

This is what came up. Quite a few interesting names 👇 Eurosnack $ECK.WA Spyrosoft $SPR.WA Wittchen $WTN.WA Asseco $ASE.WA Ifirma $IFI.WA Ambra $AMB.WA Digital Network $DIG.WA Mobruk $MBR.WA Pepco $PCO.AW Auto Partner $APR.WA Inpost $INSPT Aplisens $APL.WA We’ll discuss Inpost

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

2 months

Another stock that hit our price alert is A-Mark Precious Metals $AMRK. This one caused quite some heated discussions between bulls and bears just a few months ago. The recent ~20% pullback provides a good opportunity to take another look at this interesting company. I suggest

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@hkuppy

Kuppy

4 months

I’ve gotten a lot of questions about $AMRK earnings. (You guys seriously need to do your own work!!) In summary, the quarter was roughly inline with my expectations. I knew it would be a rough quarter and I noted that in my blog post. If you were shocked to learn that, then not

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

15 days

I’ve done pretty well in investing over the past two decades having spent exactly (check notes) ZERO time reading Fed minutes ✅

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

11 months

Friends, I need some advice. The Toffcap Monday Monitor (overview of interesting event-driven trades and investments) continues to grow. As we want to keep things digestible, I’m thinking of splitting this post into two separate posts; one dedicated to event-driven investments,

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

8 months

One of my first priorities this year is to dive further into Medical Facilities $DR. Medical Facilities is getting more attention on here, but remains a fascinating, relatively undiscovered and very simple story. The company has controlling interests in (specialty) surgical

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

7 months

OCI $OCI remains a very compelling opportunity. OCI has always been a relatively complex company, reason for a significant SOTP potential. To unlock this potential, the company initiated a strategic review. Following this review, OCI recently announced (ao) the divestment of

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

2 months

It’s pretty amazing how little focus there is from Microcap Fintwit for XL Media $XLM, one of the most compelling opportunities in the space imo. 100-200% upside with pretty good visibility over the next ~12 months. Downside is very protected given a pro-forma net cash

@Symmetry_Invest

Symmetry

@Symmetry_Invest

4 months

The current setup for XL Media Plc looks highly compelling in my mind. The company trades around its net cash position at the current share price:

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

2 months

Good timing (as often) from the 🐐 Druck, with Daktronics $DAKT shares blasting to multi-year highs. There's still very few eyes on this company. At roughly 5x ev/ebitda for continued strong growth and cash flow generation, we've yet to have serious multiple expansion. This

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

4 months

Just noticed Druckenmiller bought 5.4% of Daktronics $DAKT. Always good to be in aligned with the Druck✅

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

2 years

Very interesting recent Fitlife Brands $FTLF pitch on Vic. Illiquid stock trading OTC, ~$80m market cap, no debt, strong growth, cash flow positive, ok valuation and with a few interesting catalysts on the horizon. I like these kind of set ups (1/8)

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

9 months

I have not vetted them all, but quite a few interesting French companies on this list 👌. Thanks all. Odet $ODET Thermador $THEP We.Connect $ALWEC Cegedim $CGM Precia $ALPM TFF $TFF Gerard Perrier $PERR Laurent Perrier $LPE Neurones $NRO Bollore $BOL Dassault Aviation $AM

@ToffCap

ToffCap

9 months

Five countries in < three weeks… I’m getting too old for this. But, I’m currently in France and of course also thinking about all the great companies here (eg finding Lectra $LSS in the early 2010s). Any favourite French 🇫🇷 companies on your list?

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

2 months

I've read a ton in my life, about everything. Still do. But in investing, I've learned by far the most from sifting through stocks. Dozens each day. Often (much) more. It's crazy how much information sticks, even with the quick scans. And a lot of that remains very useful

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

8 months

What’s your top pick for 2024? (been pretty much off the grid over the past few days, so I’m sure I’ve missed many similar posts; so thanks)

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

3 months

After several years of inaction, insiders at FutureFuel $FF have been buying quite a bit on the open market. $FF has been generating good cash flow in the past and has a pretty solid b/s - roughly $100m net cash (post special div) on a market cap of $200m (June14). If you

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

6 months

I’ve been looking again at the Cannabis space after a few years and I was surprised to see many small caps moving in the right direction, both in earnings generation and share price. Example, Grown Rogue $GRIN $GRUSF, a stock that still has multi-bagger potential. The stock has

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

8 months

I really appreciate all the 'big' accounts I follow here. They've continously put out quality content for years, and deserve their success 👌 That said, here's a shout out to a few smaller top-notch accounts I really appreciate (and will be big in a few years)👇 @tinystockninja

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

2 months

Appreciate it 💪🙏 Many great suggestions 👇 $VTRS Viatris $SDZ Sandoz $DLTH Duluth $SOLV Solventum $CVEO Civeo $VTOL Bristow Group $GLXZ Galaxy Gaming $SUP Superior Industries $PHIN Phinia $BELA.AT Jumbo $PYPL Paypal $TMG Thermal Energy $BRM Biorem $ZTE Ztest $IWG

@ToffCap

ToffCap

2 months

Friends, we need some help. We cleaned up quite a bit👇. Our watchlist is full, but most of the ideas are special sits and we don't want too many. We're looking for good, multi-year investments, target 2x in 2 years, 3x in 3 years... Earnings growth + multiple expansion. 🙏🙏

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

4 months

Westaim $WED $WEDXF held its investor day yesterday. This opportunity remains so incredibly compelling from a risk / reward perspective. Management indicated that it will monetize the $150m FINCO investments... take roughly ~18 months. Incl. the liquidation of the remaining

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

4 months

So... Westaim's $WED book value increased to C$5.44 per share in Q1, compared to a current stock price of C$3.93. After the recent sale of Skyward $SKWD cash on the b/s increased to C$3.09 per share... with another ~C$0.55 per share probably coming in June as the rest of

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

11 months

Just like the #1 rule in music is to practice practice practice, the #1 rule in investing is to read read read. Here are a bunch of smart accounts / fund letters we follow, mostly to see how others are approaching the same problems we encounter 👇 Fairlight Alpha Fund

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

6 months

Ok all, what's THE stock we have to look into? Open for anything!

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

5 months

ADF Group $DRX is the gift that keeps on giving, with yet another blow-out quarter in what is generally a relatively slow quarter 👌 - Q4 revenues $88.4m, +88% yoy (!) - Gross margins expanded to 24.4% (from 17.4%) mainly due to the new robotic line.. - $15.5m EBITDA, +200% yoy

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

5 months

ADF Group $DRX will report report Q4 results next week. Despite Q4 and Q1 generally being relatively slower quarters, we should continue to see a strong yoy margin progression boosted by a very strong backlog and increasing capacity utilization of the company's new automation

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

1 year

What’s your best micro cap idea, and why?

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

7 months

I'm looking into Pinetree Capital $PNP which seems like an interesting micro-cap. If you like Constellation Software $CSU, you might appreciate Pinetree. Pinetree is a very small (and illiquid) listed closed-end with a focus on investing in value public software companies. The

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

3 months

I like finding cheap, quality companies. But I’ve learned that the best returns are found when crappy companies go to ‘less’ crappy

@ToffCap

ToffCap

3 months

When I started out I learned that you need to look for high ROIC companies with high reinvestment rates at low risk. After roughly two decades investing I can say that the highest returns were achieved with high risk, crappy ROIC companies with seemingly few reinvestment

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

2 years

Remarkable performance. The previous years were clearly great, but I truly appreciate last year's performance. Long only (mostly), a bunch of commodities + some event driven @KEDM_COM and still ~30% alpha vs $SPX. That's just top notch (risk) management @hkuppy

@praetoriancap

Praetorian Capital

2 years

Our December 2022 tear sheet is now available... Accredited investors can sign up for updates here: Follow us @praetoriancap for more updates.

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

5 days

Might be time to revisit Lifecore $LFCR A flurry of disappointing news has pushed the stock to <$5, creating a very interesting risk/reward profile. This company just had a ton of headwinds in a short time; no sale, delayed filings, debt problem (still not pretty), poor

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

3 months

Some very interesting ones 👇. We had a few on the radar, but there are some 👌 additions. Codere Online $CDRO SHF Hold. $SHFS Alliance Entertainment $AENT Eos Energy $EOSE Abacus Life $ABL Wag! $PET AST SpaceMobile $ASTS Southland Hold. $SLND Ouster $OUST Cellebrite $CLBT Hims

@ToffCap

ToffCap

3 months

Busted SPACs are such a fertile hunting ground at the moment. I can’t get enough of these. They’re either interesting from a ‘might work if not liquidation’ point of view or they’re growing and profitable but ignored because ‘SPAC’. Any favourites on your list? We regularly

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

1 year

@hkuppy 's back of the envelope math is all you need... 'Most investors are wed to prior models, models that came of age during the past few decades of declining interest rates and inflation. As a result, they don’t recognize many of the prior rules are now inverted...' Another

@kuppyskorner

Kuppy's Korner

1 year

Playing Inflation Part 2

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

2 years

Let’s take a look at a multi-bagger over the past 3 years with the potential to continue to perform exceptionally well as the story becomes simpler and more transparent: Kingsway Financial Services, a $190m smallcap with insiders owning >50%. $KFS (1/n)

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

3 months

Not a good start of the day. Wife: "how come you know thousands of stock tickers by heart but can't remember your kids' birthdays...?"

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

15 days

Hold on tight Ladies and Gentlemen. Between some good traction on Fintwit and recent VIC write-up, Seaport Entertainment $SEG (Howard Hughes $HHH spin) looks set to become the next Fintwit darling. Recent spin + cheap on NAV + rights offering (backstopped by Ackman) will

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

23 days

Any thoughts on the Capri Holdings $CPRI situation? $CPRI / $TPR deal spread still massive (roughly 80%). Catching up on the Q2 letters backlog and noted that Einhorn recently added to his position👇 FTC trial in September.

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

6 months

Pioneer Power Solutions $PPSI looks like a great find from @DeepValuePlay with continued multi-bagger potential. PPSI is an electrical-power management company. Topline growth inflected strongly in 2022 and earnings seem to have done that in 2023. The company has a strong

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

4 months

It has been my experience that the more money you manage, the more you focus on macro / top-down vs micro / bottom-up - often to the detriment of performance. I once shared that I (co-)managed a $50m fund and a >$1bn fund at the same time. At the $50m fund we (two guys) would

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

7 months

Talen Energy $TLNE has so far been a textbook out-of-bankruptcy play. Came out of the gates cheap, trading OTC (hence uplisting catalysts as well), no coverage, industry tailwinds, plus it helped this wasn't a micro-cap. Uplisting is now expected around Q2/3. We highlighted

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

4 months

Just noticed Druckenmiller bought 5.4% of Daktronics $DAKT. Always good to be in aligned with the Druck✅

@ToffCap

ToffCap

1 year

Daktronics $DAKT truly screens like a very interesting company. I believe that the margins posted in H2 (ending April 2023) are not only sustainable, but indicate (much) higher margins going forward. Perhaps the market is still anchored to the performance of the past, but for the

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

2 months

Any recent takes on Innovative Solutions $ISSC? Like the company but have been on the sidelines so far. Quite the correction since March. Now ~8x ebitda FY24e, for what should be 20-30% ebitda growth pa over the medium-term. Here's the investment case (courtesy of SRK Cap)👇

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

9 months

What are some of the best businesses out there, public or private, except for the 'classics' ( $RACE, $RMS, etc)? One imo, the CFA Institute. Convinced the world it is a relevant course / title, grows 20%+ pa, very strong margins and highly recurring revenues; Locked in for a

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

3 months

Fantastic. Talen Energy $TLNE $600m tender offer. As a reminder - Talen came out of bankruptcy a year ago (at $46.50)

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

7 months

Talen Energy $TLNE has so far been a textbook out-of-bankruptcy play. Came out of the gates cheap, trading OTC (hence uplisting catalysts as well), no coverage, industry tailwinds, plus it helped this wasn't a micro-cap. Uplisting is now expected around Q2/3. We highlighted

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

2 months

One thing that I've learned (the hard way) investing through a few cycles... be very careful when you start thinking 'I'm pretty good at this'. Just when you think you've 'cracked the code', the market has a (harsh) way of showing you that you didn't.

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

1 year

I can't remember the last time (if ever) I've seen anything like this. We know Calumet $CLMT is preparing to spin the MR unit in a few months, targeting > CLMT's current EV. But they recently even dedicated a slide to what they believe is an intrinsic value range for $CLMT's

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

6 months

Plenty of 👌 suggestions. I've listed them 👇and a few of them already made the top of the watchlist ✅ (1/3) Pioneer Power Solutions $PPSI BFF Bank $BFF Qualitau $QLTU Civitanavi $CNS Nova Ljubljanska Banka $NLB Cie de L'Odet $ODET STG International $STG Teleperformance $TEP

@ToffCap

ToffCap

6 months

Ok all, what's THE stock we have to look into? Open for anything!

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

10 months

‘I’ll put it on the watchlist and buy it when its down 20-30%’ is something that I’ve heard today and again for almost two decades. Of course investors almost never do IF the stock in question indeed pulls back. In 2011, Joel Greenblatt wrote about a study on the best-performing

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

7 days

Rockwell Medical $RMTI is an interesting micro-cap which seems to be inflecting positively on its turnaround. There's multi-bagger potential if the growth trend continues given very little / no growth reflected in the valuation. We know Fresenius $FRE a bit and are aware of

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

3 months

I love looking for new investments. That's one of my favorite parts of the job. But the best IRRs (by far) were achieved with companies already on the watchlist - companies we did the works on but did not buy. Just waiting for the right moment. Sometimes it never comes, but

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

11 months

Nuvation $NUVB is a busted biotech SPAC with >$600m net cash on balance sheet, trading at a market cap of ~$260m. The company is currently pursuing its last trials. If these are a success, the stock could have some interesting upside. Otherwise, $NUVB could become a

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

18 days

Interesting discussion from Bridgewater's CIOs in the recent Q2 update👇

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

10 months

New position: Aedas Homes $AEDAS. Aedas is a Spanish developer trading at c. 50% discount to NAV, >13% dividend yield and what looks promising cash flow generation given quality assets. Good chance that the company will become a target imo if the valuation remains pressured (1/n)

@ToffCap

ToffCap

11 months

I’m currently focussing on companies with relatively high leverage and good fcf generation. The kind where operating earnings are stable/growing but eps is declining due to higher interest rates. I’m finding many of such companies experience pressure on share prices while they

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

1 month

Thank God I'm sitting on a beach...

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

3 months

Your suggestions for the best company / industry write-ups 👇 Many interesting ones👌. Thanks - Crossroads Capital’s 10 page deep-dive on $VTY - $OCA by Sundheim in 2002 - $BQE.V by @ragingbullcap - Water by @Citrini7 - Wolfe Research primer on Rails - Hunter Keay’s old

@ToffCap

ToffCap

3 months

What are some of the best write-ups on companies / industries you have ever read? Not important how old the piece is.

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

7 months

Very interesting times ahead for the blog. Over the next few weeks we'll be posting about... - A net cash mid-capper in the Energy space trading at single-digit ev/ebitda, with a potential very large catalyst on the horizon, - A quality (and very cheap) compounder, with >30%

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

1 year

A quick reminder. 10x p/e in e.g. Poland is NOT the same as 10x p/e in the US (or Euro zone).

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@ToffCap

ToffCap

4 months

Anyone looking into Marex $MRX? Recently listed, $1.4bn market cap. Grew profits 44% in FY23 and 141% yoy in Q1 24. Trading at <8x p/e on annualized Q1 earnings. Very eager to learn more.

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