Parthenos Capital @ParthenosCap Twitter profile

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Parthenos Capital

5 months

I am excited to share the Parthenos Investment Partnership’s Q1 letter here: I discuss some of our top holdings and exited positions in a busy first quarter: $WOSG.L $PSH.L $BUR $GOGO $RICK $MRL.L $AWE.L

Parthenos Capital Q1 2024 Letter.pdf

drive.google.com

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

One of my favourite things to do is read emerging fund managers (<50m AUM) quarterly letters to find new names and see their approach. Often some gems when people just starting out and have a lot to prove, who are the people I have to follow and check out?

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

5 months

What is your favourite current long idea which: - is trading at less than 20x normalised earnings - has a clear path to grow fcf/share 15% a year for next 5 years - has a catalyst for this value to be realised over next 12/18 months

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

$WOSG now makes up 22% of the portfolio after our buys the last few days. Largest conviction holding since having 32% in $META at $120

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

Can anyone explain how @ChrisBloomstran fund has $480m AUM still? 30% of the portfolio in BRK and largely owns legacy assets that have structurally underperformed, incredible people pay fees for this

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

4 months

Encouraging and pleasing results from $WOSG today, as of this morning the position now makes up just shy of 28% of the partnership’s assets. Excited to see the continued positive developments despite the tough environment

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

@eboroian Some I think have thrown off good ideas recently - Matan Capital Management, Jackson Peak Capital, Alta Fox, ADW, Okeefe Stevens, Atari Capital. Not all emerging but good letters nonetheless

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

List yesterday of fund managers with good idea generation: @AltaFoxCapital @Adam_Wyden @AtaiCapital @diegobmilano @dsmoak98 @AskeladdenTX @JonCukierwar @gbcvalue Please add any more you can think of, particularly interested in any with track record of 20%+ returns over 3+ years

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

5 months

What is your most misunderstood/hated long right now with a clear path for value to be realised in the next 12m?

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

2 months

More encouraging news from $WOSG today with an even clearer path to strong forward returns from here - now makes up just shy of 30% of the partnership’s assets and we don’t intend to sell a share.

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

5 months

This is a wonderful example of how to extract value when there is an upcoming catalyst and 6 potential criteria to look for when making an investment:

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

5 months

Mines $WOSG - trades at < 6x FCF, 8% organic growth in US luxury watch market plus huge growth runway with 100m p.a deployed at 25%+ ROCE for exp capex into new stores/acquisitions (should get to roughly 15% growth), market realises bucherer fears overblown plus return to growth

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

1927-2009 small cap (growth + value) outperformed large by ~400bps 2010-2024 large cap outperformed small by ~600bps. If my sister asked me where to put her money for next 10yrs I would tell her Russell 2000 over S&P. 83 years in favour of small and mean reversion is coming.

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

7 months

Having just joined twitter, I am excited to publish the Parthenos Investment Partnership 2023 Annual Letter publicly for the first time: We discuss some of our top holdings: $PSH.L $AWE.L $ATG.L $WOSG.L $RICK $MRL.L

Parthenos 2023 Annual Letter.pdf

drive.google.com

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

5 months

Sat here thinking about how much more $WOSG to buy this week…

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

$WOSG is a 1,000p stock in next 4 years, buying as much as I can this morning. If they execute well could be significantly more than that

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

5 months

Had a few messages about lease cost accounting at $WOSG - their FCF is post all rental costs as shown in the bridge here so that is the ‘true fcf’. If you argue expansionary capex at 25%+ ROCE should be stripped out then your investment horizon is either a week or you’re an idiot

Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

5 months

@Aksel465 @Billhuang1223 I don’t think you have understood their financials correctly - here is their bridge to FCF. All lease costs included and the 145m is after this - this has been confirmed as correct by WOSG director of finance.

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

5 months

What is a stock less than $10bn that you have more than 10% of your portfolio in?

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

Every time i reread the 1970s/80s $BRK letters I am constantly astounded at Buffetts ability to convey complicated themes in the simplest of ways. It is not an understatement to say that his writing and communication is a masterpiece that should be studied for centuries…

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

5 months

Days like today convince me even more than time horizon is now an investors biggest edge - market down 1% and i’ve seen some of the craziest theories about why. If you are happy to own good businesses for a long period of time, who cares?

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

For those saying $BUR will be taking an 80/90% haircut on the argentina debt, this was an interesting snippet management included in their shareholder letter…

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

A well thought out response from Jordan to a valid comment raised on SZ on distributable cash flow to shareholders. Maintenance capex is tiny at ~5 compared to growth capex of ~68m, there is a long runway for growth now but lots of this FCF could go to shareholders in the future

Jordan Fox

@jordan_w_fox

6 months

@ParthenosCap @mac003_c My reply:

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

$BUR results are phenomenal, stock should not be trading at $14

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

Seen few emerging fund managers (won’t name names) who have a period of great returns then feel the need to go activist/change process to make a name for themself - often leads to more AUM but lower forward returns. No. 1 job is to keep process simple and keep compounding

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

We have initiated a 7% position in $GOGO. Firmly believe the secular tailwinds over next 10yrs will show a meaningful inflection in the biz and competitor fears are overblown

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

Most people think in days/weeks, $WOSG relationship has been in place for over a century. Was the same when your grandad was a kid, through world wars, globalisation shifts and the dotcom era. Fred,19 in his basement thinks Rolex is going DTC and he has top-ticked the 100yr chart

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

@ClarkSquareCap $BUR market leader in litigation finance, compounder for 15 years and just won YPF case where expect payout is 2x the size of the entire market capitalisation

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

5 months

Anyone got any good writeups on $IWG?

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

2 months

@impassinvestor This is a huge call option that an investor in $WOSG today gets for absolutely free, may or may not happen but a lot of upside if it does

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

What do you think 10 year CAGR on S&P 500 is from these levels, 4% maybe? Beginning to think we may see a decade of large caps rangebound - still plenty of opportunity in SMID caps

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

$WOSG.L now trades at less than 7x depressed free cash flow with one of the largest moats I have ever seen. We have increased our stake by 50% this morning and it is now our second largest holding

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

5 months

@DeepSailCapital There is a lot of cheap high-quality businesses in the european market

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

@variantview_X Thesis for our partners in my annual letter pinned on my profile and other notes which haven’t shared publicly. In short: bucherer fears overblown, min HSD compounder with huge moat and resistant biz trading like going bankrupt. Don’t need much to go right for stock to do well

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

3 months

Roaring Kitty has potentially gone from virtually nothing to $500m+ from $GME in a little over 3 years…are there any other examples in history of an individual doing this so quickly solely from investing/speculating?

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

We have initiated a new 9% position in Burford Capital. $BUR is led by a credible management team with shareholder alignment whilst trading at an extremely reasonable valuation despite their sustained growth over the last 15 years. We believe there are multiple ways to win (1/2)

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

5 months

@YankyBanash First 3 yrs I used a lot of leverage and spent a lot of time on macro due to the environment - ‘growth at distressed prices’ strategy became fully formed in 2022 and since then have used very little leverage and much happier with the sustainability of that given positions we hold

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

5 months

@InvestRoiss @Tintincapital That is reasonable, don’t want the asia exposure and I think US market has multi-year secular growth in watches. US market only 1.8x the size of UK market despite having over 5x population. Growing significantly faster and WOSG best positioned to take advantage of this tailwind

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

@andrewcoye Not too concerned about if guidance shows sales growth of 2% or 7% next year, people will continue to purchase more rolexes in the future and WOSG will continue to grow footprint. Rolex increasing capacity may also be huge tailwind. Only risk is Rolex pulling the plug (<1%)

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

@SleepwellCap $WOSG being the most down out of this list with limited Asia exposure shows the current perception of the stock

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

5 months

@ReturnsJourney Almost everyone (myself included) overestimates how quickly a catalyst will change a business so by framing the q at 18months you get a truer reflection of what it looks like in 3y, at least in my opinion.

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

@lurker8679 No that is @jordan_w_fox , his writeups are great. We just happen to share a few positions

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

Anyone have a well thought out differentiated bear case on $BUR? Haven’t really heard one would love to see some pushback

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

@andrewcoye No.1 thing i’m watching is if Rolex limit WOSG market share in US in favour of Bucherer and change allocations (from all my discussions within the industry this is < 1% chance of happening but being priced in at > 70% chance), everything else is noise

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

5 months

@DeepMoatSociety We have held since 2020, I like the portfolio composition and proven downside protection in turbulent times. Plus we bought this at 30% discount to NAV so happy for them to keep buying shares back and expect a liquidity event at some point (not soon) to realise this value

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

@AbraxasBridge @ChrisBloomstran Plenty of ways to own tangible assets without owning underperforming assets over decade long periods

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

@kab604 @RegSnowdon 100%, I think there is a <1% chance that they do want to go DTC but in the event they did it would make far more sense to buy WOSG and leverage their network in the UK & US than try to build out their own in an area they’re unfamiliar with

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

5 months

@gregisenberg No real stats on this yet as it’s dystopian but I would guess that this is an extremely small cohort of the population who would pay for a service like this - a much smaller market than the dating app market which $MTCH operates in

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

Anyone have access to annual letters from Duquesne Capital Management by Stanley Drucknemiller? Have been trying to source the extensive list for weeks and no luck

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

@CapitalShipyard @orrdavid Don’t own $GOOGL yet but personally disagree, when there has been a historic moat such as this, the next product must be 10x better not just 2x. For the average searcher, google performs well enough that Chat GPT won’t gain market share as quick as the investment community expect

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

@LukeWolgram @JonahLupton I didn’t realise followers equated to proficiency in investing, our job is to do investment research not market ourselves on twitter, Jonah’s isn’t which is fine. Catching a 800% move in $SMCI shouldn’t be confused with being a successful long-term investor

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

@WOLF_Financial Never got the wanting to retire early, do what you love and then you’re never just waiting to reach an arbitrary age to ‘have fun’

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

@j4bert0 Don’t know and dont care I’ll make it a 40% position if I have to. Happy to keep buying from them at these prices, glad you’ve found analysis useful

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

5 months

@InvestRoiss @Tintincapital improvement from their retail partners and reward those who invest in their stores with significantly better allocations and higher sales per store (which has been the case with WOSG and is partly why revenue is up 2x and EBIT 4x in 5 years. Allocations for largest ADs and WOSG

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

Don’t know $HSY well but dont think this hasn’t been priced in, feastables potential is huge and as we have seen technological disruption think we now see significant consumer product disruption through influencer brands vs legacy players. Wouldn’t go short but prob also not long

Edwin Dorsey

@StockJabber

6 months

$HSY is my highest conviction large cap short idea, and I think it suffers tremendously over the coming years If anyone bullish on $HSY would like to do a respectful public bull/bear debate on Spaces, please let me know Would love to flesh out the thesis in the public domain

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

@onebeggar After elimination of debt they should buyback £250m or 50% of market cap in next 12m whilst showing cash generation from TIC business, stock would 2-3x. They’ll never do it though as No.1 requirement for UK exec is you have to hate your shareholders

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

@orrdavid @Bprew7 Well it looks like I purchased a few of the shares you sold! Will be great to come back to this in 18 months at end of 2025

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

@humbleinvesting $WOSG is incredible risk reward here

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

We have now built out our full position of 12% in $FUTR.L at an average price of 598p. The co operates local monopolies within media niches and we believe they are poised to distribute significant shareholder return through their systematic approach to capital allocation.

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

What company do you know that has increased revenue over 6x and net profit over 40x in the last 5 years but trades at just 3.8x free cash flow? $FUTR.L

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

Why does anyone own $BOC here with the other opportunities in the market? Really don’t get it

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

5 months

@Manisnoobs Struggled with realistic long-term growth runway and terminal value on this one - also anecdotal but have visited 4/5 at different times and everyone has been completely empty

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

@humbleinvesting @vk250382 @Maxxl94 As in organic vs inorganic? Management have stated UK luxury watch cagr of ~4% last 15 years whereas US is ~8/9%

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

@RegSnowdon @kab604 I would completely agree with this assessment, if anything I think it has given us more certainty on the situation as it has clarified their position whereas before it was an unknown

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

We are initiating a new position tomorrow which will make up 10-15% of the partnership. We believe it has a free call option to deliver 150% shareholder returns over the next 18 months with minimal downside. Oh and it provides uncorrelated and recession resistant returns

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

here whether it be through the YPF case (which even at a 50% haircut would yield over 100% of the market cap today) or through their potential to become a long-term compounder and deploy large amount of capital at extremely favourable returns (2/2)

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

@andrewcoye Agree but you’re not paying for that today. Also only thing that will drive stock next 12-18m is rolex relationship and perception on that. Jewellery sales are meaningless for stock atm

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

@Billhuang1223 Rolex is intent on legacy preservation and not distribution. Distribution is v hard and low margin compared to their manufacturing business. Have had many discussions with ADs/Rolex and not motivated by money - eg AMZN offered richemont 100m to sell their stuff and they said no

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

@InvestmentTalkk $NVDA overvalued but she thinks $RDDT a bargain

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

5 months

@impassinvestor Also looking to initiate a position in the 750-800 range

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

5 months

@InvestRoiss @Tintincapital What an extremely thorough analysis

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

5 months

@InvestRoiss @Tintincapital Bucherer wouldn’t have sufficient capex largely to consolidate the ~300 family owned and poorly ran ADs in the US and traditionally it’s been WOSG who have expanded here, they need them. Rolex wants the best store experience and who can provide significant investment

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

5 months

@InvestRoiss @Tintincapital continuing to maintain their share an improve allocation in core UK market. US market has roughly 10 ADs with a large presence and then ~300 with less than 3 stores that are typically family owned, poorly operated and underinvested dealerships. Watch brands expect continuous

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

7 months

@IggyOnInvesting Would be surprised if management do significant buybacks, that capital allocation is far too sophisticated for them

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

@impassinvestor @kab604 Exactly, my prediction is if some revenue growth returns stock will do fairly well from here but still trade at a meaningful discount to before due to this perceived risk, after a couple years when it’s apparent it’s not going to happen you will get the multiple expansion too

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

@kab604 Obvious one is Rolex decides to retail their own watches and stops providing WOSG with them but I ascribe about a 0.01% probability this happens. More likely is manufacturing can’t keep up with the demand for watches which caps growth and frustrated customers (seeing this now)

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

Anyone done any work or got a write up on $GOGO? Looks interesting with meaningful inflection next year

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

$MRL.L discount is insane, investors giving the company no credit despite successful divesture. If shareholders weren’t smooth brained brits would have traded at 600-650p post disposal

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

5 months

@TickerSymbolYOU These metrics mean nothing, valuation matters

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

We have started a new position in $FUTR.L which we believe to be the cheapest company on the market right now. We believe traffic fears are overblown due to their diversified and highly engaged niche audiences.

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

@vk250382 @andrewcoye Not going to happen, 1% was an arbitrary number I assigned to it to show that you can never be 100% certain in anything in investing but this is about as close as you can get. Growth etc who knows but rolex will not pull plug

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

Heavily buying back shares now and I think the stock triples in the next 18 months

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

@variantview_X @ClarkSquareCap @JonCukierwar Been taking a read an some gems in there! @JonCukierwar has a similar portfolio concentration and strategy to mine at Parthenos, thanks for the rec!

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

@osculum_capital Stock returns just like Burford returns likely to be lumpy, stock will go nowhere for 6-12 months at a time then go up 50% in a week. Long term returns should be favourable

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

@LionelHutz_Esq @TheMattSiben @compound248 @bizbreakdowns @Bprew7 Thanks guys will take a look!

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

5 months

@InvestRoiss @Tintincapital Sorry conclusion here isnt clear? You’re saying because rolex demand is at an all time high and waitlists are increasing this is negative for WOSG? Rolex allocations have increased YoY for last 10 yrs and they’re selling more rolex watches than ever, are you trolling or serious?

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

5 months

@jaym217 WOSG expansion in US has gone extremely well so far, luxury watch market organically growing 8/9% p.a which is double UK market growth so demand clearly very high. Watch industry is quite unique so competition framework different compared to drinks market for example eg $FEVR.L

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

@guastywinds @orrdavid @orrdavid I built out the position today at $8.16 avg so if stock is < $11 at end of 2025 then you are more than welcome to take the victory lap. I think it will be worth significantly more

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

Bitcoin theme song has got to be the top..they are insufferable

Michael Saylor⚡️

@saylor

6 months

What’s your favorite #Bitcoin theme song?

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

5 months

@InvestRoiss @Tintincapital Sure, demand for WOSGs top brands remains higher than ever, prices are steadily rising and they are improving allocations across all major geographies. They have positioned themselves perfectly to capitalise on opportunities to consolidate US AD market over next 5-10 yrs whilst

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

@kab604 @andrewcoye Bucherer acquisition was defensive and one-off. Owner was old and had been in the works for years, Rolex acquired it as didn’t want to risk it going to LVMH/WOSG and losing control. If they completed another dealer acquisition then I would sell all my stock but not gonna happen

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

7 months

@ChrisZ_CH @Quartr_App @SvnCapital @FundasyInvestor @LNathell @LogicalThesis @European_DGI @stonkmetal @Biz_Breakdown @Quality_stocksA @BigLeagueBI I imagine they’re fairly agnostic on their repurchase price as it will always trade at a premium, you should add where you think forward returns will be reasonable based on your estimates

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

@TheLoneWolf58 Is this a joke?

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

@Rebrand_As_Y I think $BUR, impossible to hold for any fund who needs to report quarterly performance as returns lumpy/no guidance etc but probably performs extremely well from here over 3yrs

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

5 months

@Billhuang1223 Current year FCF of 145m to MC of 850m. Can be conservative and include ‘net debt’ but that is all lease liabilities

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

5 months

@InvestRoiss @Tintincapital has significantly outpaced the increase in production and there’s been a clear trend of this consolidation and WOSG being a beneficiary of this. They have a huge runway to improve existing stores or pursue M&A strategy which Rolex are in favour of to improve the product offering.

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

5 months

@InvestRoiss @Tintincapital Have you ever actually looked into the history of how Rolex do business or how the watch industry works? It feels to me that you’ve looked at some surface level facts, taken them at surface level and are happy with that. That is why the stock is trading at 350p not a new insight

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

We have generated a return of 584.43% over Parthenos’ first 5 years and we are now up 32.2% in the first 2 months of 2024. Our reflexivity investment approach has worked well since inception and we think the current market environment going forward it well suited to this too

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

@impassinvestor @kab604 Bucherer have no presence in the US and very limited in the UK, Rolex would be cutting off a significant distribution channel which would be heavily detrimental to them, I don’t like to talk in certainties but it’s just not gonna happen.

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

5 months

@Kyle_morris____ UK luxury watch cagr lower at 3/4% organic p.a. Will certainly be a lower growth market at MSD but as US segment grows and strong growth opportunities there it will be more than offset. Importantly, at todays prices you’re not paying for any of that growth

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Parthenos Capital

@ParthenosCap

6 months

@TSOH_Investing Really don’t see how the stock ever works long term here $BMBL

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