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MetaCritic Capital Profile
MetaCritic Capital

@MetacriticCap

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God hates wrong scales.

The metaverse
Joined February 2022
Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
25 days
I extended the LMCI to the 70s (with fewer measures, obviously), the conclusion is the same: the bad employment momentum situation lacks momentum in other variables.
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
25 days
I know @Claudia_Sahm has gone in the media cycle hedging herself this cycle, but this time TRULY is different! The Labor Marker Conditions Index has BARELY moved since 6-months before the Sahm rule was triggered. It has moved violently in the other times. The difference is too
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
3 months
@anpaure People won't hire overqualified people for dishwashers lol
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
9 months
@chrisalbon Identifying a distinct style in ChatGPT's prose is an interesting observation. This style, often marked by a specific tone and structure, could be named to reflect its unique characteristics. Considering its origins and qualities, a term like "GPT Prose" or "AI Eloquence" might
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
7 months
@dylan522p Lol. I thought they were retraining a bit fine-tuning. They are just adding instructions in front of your prompts lolololol
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
2 years
Obvious in hindsight thesis available on the market right now. $AMZN: They spend 60B in R&D and they rent fucking CPUs and sell toilet paper. You don't know what Jassy can do if he wants to show margins. OBVIOUS IN HINDSIGHT!
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
2 years
In a year where the average PE fund is up 3% YTD, do not forget: private equity is just leveraged small cap value
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
1 month
@buccocapital I was in the road between Delaware and D.C., listening to A Promised Land, when Obama started talking about Joe. How for years he commuted so that he was able to be with his kids after their mom died. It brought me to tears, imagining how for so long he drove for those roads to
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
2 years
@patrick_oshag Edison showing electricity at the 1893 world's fair, without a doubt. What could be more revolutionary than electricity?
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
8 months
@ByrneHobart No one cites poor Einstein anymore. Sometimes your work is so good it becomes common knowledge
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
11 months
@Holmes1618 @ashleevance Stanley Zhang? No idea!
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
2 years
When making a $ADBE DCF, be aware that the cash flow won't return to you, the shareholder, but rather used to make great M&A like Marketo, Magento and Figma.
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
2 years
Why are we selling Meta because $SNAP can't forecast their own business? They already showed they don't know anything about their company. $FB
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
2 years
Holy shit. Tesla has no valuation support whatsoever. At current 687B market cap it's at 49x 2023 FCF (who's paying that kind of multiple on 2023 FCF?) or 37x 2023 earnings $TSLA $TSLAQ Who has money on the sidelines to buy it as it drops?
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
2 years
Holy shit. Bridgewater has a $1B short position against $ASML. Disclaimer: I'm not smarter than Bridgewater.
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
7 months
There are like 50 car makers around of the world, many of them that make revenues in the hundreds of billions of dollars. none of them believes in FSD and have tried to license it. But Josh, 27yo $TSLA bull real estate realtor from Cincinnati believes FSD is real
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
2 years
Why owning... - $MU if you can own $LRCX at a slightly higher multiple - $FB if you can own $GOOGL at a slightly higher multiple - $PYPL if you can own $V at a slightly higher multiple
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
9 months
@Sancto @chrisalbon Certainly! Naming the distinct prose style of ChatGPT can be quite creative. Here are some suggestions: 1. **AutoScript**: Emphasizing the automated nature of the writing. 2. **Model Monologue**: Highlighting the monologic style often employed. 3. **Neural Narrative**: A nod to
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
11 months
Summarizing how to trade $OKTA
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
2 years
If $SNAP is worth $13B, can $META shareholders finally admit that WhatsApp, that makes a fraction of Snap revenues, was an expensive acquisition at $18B in 2014? Think about the opportunity cost of that money and how much WhatsApp burned since then.
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
29 days
Can you please be gentle with me and explain why the Nikkei is crashing?
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
2 years
One day in 2032, after all the hype, people will have concluded that $TSLA has always been an automaker. Just because you make the engine electric, this doesn't change the economics of an industry. $TSLAQ
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
2 years
$AMZN should buy $SPOT. -Put Audible under Ek's leadership -Connect Spotify with to allow for better ads -Shut down Prime Music, offer Spotify instead -Steal a big Google customer. Make Kurian cry -Video podcast optionality to increase the video footprint
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
1 year
Myself preparing to tell my PM that perhaps, only perhaps, we should own less MSFT
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
4 months
How hard can it be to leave your fund at good terms, give your form employer a bit of equity at your new firm, ask them for a bit of capital, and their endorsement????
@j_fishback
James Fishback
4 months
Dear David Einhorn.
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
6 months
$GOOGL is starting to make the first dollars in revenue of its 4th act: Waymo. Google has a 1.5M LLM, Google isn't GPU-poor, Google has a terrific AI bench, Google's revenue is growing double-digits regardless of the attack by Microsoft and OAI Today we could say is a
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
6 months
Companies that could IPO into the mania with terrific valuations. - Databricks - Anthropic - CoreWeave - Cohere - Grob - HuggingFace - PineCone - Mistral - Scale - Character - Stability - X + xAI Reddit is a good start, but we can get even dumb. For whatever reason people
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
1 year
@JosephPolitano The great resignation is everywhere, except in the employment statistics
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
9 months
@jasonfurman Professor, it's my impression and the general public impression that universities like Harvard punishes speech quite harshly when it's against minorities the mainstream liberal crowd wants to defend. Do you understand that the public don't think it's plausible that if people were
@bariweiss
Bari Weiss
9 months
At Harvard, "fatphobia" constitutes violence. But "globalize the intifada" requires context. WATCH:
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
2 years
@moskov Someone that makes a rocket that lands and a car that drives itself (although poorly) is too smart not to know statistics. He's joking around or creating a reason not to buy it, or both.
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
3 months
After months of work, I concluded there's still upside to $NVDA numbers, as the company's revenue is just 30% of mega-cap Operating Cash Flow.
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
18 days
@ValueStockGeek The only good thing about RE is the mind fucking leverage they allow
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
9 months
@buccocapital It's my experience that jobs that teach you valuable skills are also those that pay you more. Perhaps the best learners are scarce.
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
2 years
$AMZN Capex is higher than Germany defense budget
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
6 months
If everything goes behind glass, This has to be bullish $AMZN, right?
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
3 months
@quantian1 Apparently he prefers to face global competition from programmers from Romenia to India instead of having a captive addressable market that will only grow this century.
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
2 years
@buccocapital Classic situation where fundamentals deteriorate with improving financials, because the company is overearning and consuming the entirety of consumer surplus. This is particularly acute in tech, where consumer surplus is usually subsidized for a decade by venture capitalists
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
2 years
@BucknSF Sales. I'd be impressed by how small are the deals that a sales rep work. Software is eating the world and sales reps are eating software.
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
6 months
Buffett is a funny man. He claims to have no ability to predict FX but he just crushed it with the Yen bond + trading houses trade. Yes old man, sit there. We'll all pretend you didn't knew the Yen was in a 30 high. $BRK
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
4 months
In just one year, Google is half-way there, they already cut AI costs by 5x. $GOOGL can't stop winning. @sundarpichai can't stop being a war CEO. Times are changing. Get in losers, the Alphabet Rocketship is about to take-off.
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
2 years
"The legendary investors Li Lu and Monish Pabrai" $BABA
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
2 years
@gchahal @Twitter @elonmusk @paraga @btaylor I still don't understand what you're trying to do. 1) You don't have access to private account data 2) MANY MANY people use twitter without leaving any trace for you that they are active.
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
2 years
$TSLA ranks 73 worldwide in Research and Development. According to bulls, it's the best spent dollars in the industry, achieving many technological breakthroughs even though the company spends less than STLA, TM, VW and Nissan. Makes sense? $TSLAQ
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
2 years
@buccocapital The more he pushes the metaverse, the more he shows he isn't convinced that Facebook and Instagram have high perpetuity value. Instead of working hard to extend these cash flows and putting a brave face saying it's all fine, he makes obvious he doesn't believe. Why should we?
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
7 months
@dalibali2 There are multiple instances of Teams and Outlook in my desktop. I ignore because it's in an all time high
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
1 year
@neilcybart It's like the Bixby button, but 10 years later and equally useless
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
9 months
@quantian1 Tb fair, the TARP passed with more votes from democrats than Republicans. Obama had a meeting in the White House with President Bush and Senator McCain where they decided the details and the support for the bill.
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
10 months
@ganeumann Afaik, there are no people that work at the nonprofit. All there is is a nonprofit that owns a for profit.
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
2 months
@mattyglesias @ezraklein If he had dropped earlier and they nonetheless lost, it'd be considered the biggest political error ever
@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
4 months
@BATMongoose Primarying Biden would be '76 all over again. I suppose that you could try to convince him to leave, and I suppose the party tried doing that, but he simply refused. Also, I don't know if running a new face against a president running for reelection is wise. If they picked
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
5 months
@RichardHanania Europe, particularly France, particularly Paris, isn't poor!!! El Salvador is poor.
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
1 year
@TheStalwart They believe in Erdoganomics
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
6 months
Dumb question Why are $V $MA considered a duopoly when clearly Amex and Discover are accepted everywhere?
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
2 years
To put in another way the insanity of this PT: $MSFT Office segment makes $64B in revenues. There are more than 1.2B users, including 270M Teams MAUs. Doing video/phone/chat alone ALONE, according to Ark $ZM would hit 70B under their bullish assumptions.
@WSummerlinAI
Will Summerlin
2 years
Our Zoom open-source model is now available on GitHub: You can read about our thesis and assumptions in our blog post: Our base case suggests Zoom’s share price could reach $1,500 by 2026.
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
2 months
@itsurboyevan Yes. It's hard to exaggerate how easy it is to have a sense of self if every day you actually do something meaningful that people want to buy. If you make cakes, you went to work, made cakes, and people bought: it's really easy to understand your role in the world. Much less if
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
2 years
@AnnMLipton Imagine paying $44B to be world's babysitter
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
1 month
@Noahpinion Hanania is a very weird heir from Fukuyama. He concluded that liberal democracy is the end of history, but he generally doesn't like it. He can't exactly articulate what's wrong with liberalism, but it's mostly because of aesthetics and master morality, and taxes.
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
3 months
@nikillinit What's there in San Diego other the Navy and Qualcomm?
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
2 months
Before GenAI, it was $TWLO that was suposed to have a TAM that was COGS of all companies on earth. Now, we can't even buy CCaaS at 20x P/E. Narratives change fast, anon. Via @borrowed_ideas
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
2 months
@ezraklein 1- It's very hard to get elected downballot having to lie about the nakedness of the emperor. Many will either defect for their own self-survivorship or will not get elected. 2- Those who lied the emperor had clothes POST-debate, will have a hard time in the future being trusted.
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
1 year
The way some people talk about one would think $MSFT is trading at 50x Earnings. I get it, 30x isn't cheap, but what is you plan? To short the greatest company on earth growing teens their EPS in expectations of what? Trading at 25x? Comm'on!
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
2 years
$MSFT is launching their LLM-powered Bing (incredible the execution of this company, they're never late to a hype) This is further gas to $GOOGL AI worries and it seems we're going fast to a resolution.
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
2 years
The stages of grief of a $GOOGL narrative-driven investor Let's go, baby. Let the AI-worries sell-off begin!
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
2 years
THE OUTSIDERS PORTFOLIO I created this hypothetical portfolio of companies the CEOs mention the book during calls listed on the BamSEC over the last 5 years. I plan to update you periodically on this. My hypothesis they will outperform. $RICK $PAR $CSTR $CSV $ZD $UI $COIN $PH
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
2 years
ZENDESK BOARD OF DIRECTORS It has become clear that Zendesk $ZEN has stolen the company from shareholders, lead by CEO and Chairman @mikkelsvane . Let's see who are the people that approved this deal (but refused to sell at $130) and what other companies they serve on BOD.
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
8 months
@buccocapital I disagree with this one, Bucco. Inefficiencies shouldn't be applauded or protected. If bigger companies can better compete, so be it.
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
2 years
$BRK: The GOAT is ready for his last dance, motherfucker! Do you think he'll drop the ball now? He'll die on the day BRK hits a new ATH (hopefully above 1M)and outperforms the S&P 500 on every possible window. This psyco has traded the 50s and 70s. Obvious in hindsight!
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
1 year
Doing data entry through the 10-Ks is a non-automatable job. Not only it's very therapeutic, it's an indispensable way to understand a company.
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
3 months
@Noahpinion Easily 1B+.
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
22 days
> Artists would rebel > $UMG has MUCH less power with newer artists, if any > Many artists could record $SPOT Sessionss Seriously. Why is it hard to understand that record labels have little reason to exist today? Do you think Charlie xcx has the same deal as The Beatles or
@spudheadcapital
Squinter 😐
22 days
JPM analyst going nuclear $UMG $SPOT
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
2 years
Professor Mauboussin recommends to write a pre-morten before making a decision, therefore you know how things could go wrong. "HOW COULD ONE LOSE MONEY INVESTING IN $META" Therefore, I wrote a pre-morten for what a failed investment in Meta would be! Time for a thread 🍵
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
2 years
Let's revisit this bad boy $COIN
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
2 years
Outside from distressed stuff like Carvana, $OPEN is the only stock I know that could be a 20-bagger in half a decade. I miss the times when I thought that 10-baggers were abundants. It was so much better to be that naive.
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
2 years
AI STARTUPS -They produce no silicon, it's merchant's -They make no framework, it's all Meta's PyTorch -They have little industry secrets, it's all published in peer-reviewed publications -They have no data, it's all widely buyable or it's public data - They have no distribution
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
2 years
In 2020, $TSLA was granted 181 parents (couldn't find the 2021 data). Toyota, on the other hand, was granted 2753 patents. I know patents are fugazi. But anyway I look at, it's hard to gain confidence in Tesla's technology acumen. $TSLAQ 70th R&D budget, low # patents...
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
6 months
I honestly don't understand $GOOGL skepticism with GenAI. It has been 15 months since ChatGPT launch and they have hundreds of millions of MAUs, many of them high value users. If we're not seeing GenAI take its toll into Google today, when are we going to see signs???
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
1 month
Finished listening to @Citrini7 Odd Lots. I am a big stan. Not that many people I admire in this profession.
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
2 years
Let's shitpost on $GOOGL vs $MSFT
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
2 years
Tbh, it feels greedy and reckless for $AAPL to push their ad business so hard after screwing $META & Co. I know they must feel greatly confident on their position with regulators, but is it worth the hassle with regulators to chase $5 or $10B more in sales?
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
13 days
@Noahpinion Wash your balls is good advice!!
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
2 years
Image being rich as @DavidSacks and feeling the need to suck EM as hard as he does. A prime example of someone that can't call enough on his wealth and needs to please someone richer to have deal flow and belonging. $TWTR $ELONQ
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
1 year
I need extreme high quality 12% IRR long ideas. If it's uncorrelated with my portfolio, better
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
2 years
PE Multiples 24 months forward: Tesla: 39x Stellantis: 3x Toyota: 8.6x Ford: 5.6x General Motors: 5.1x ---- Alphabet: 14x Apple: 20x S&P 500: 17x S&P 500 tech (XLK): 21x Doesn't matter how you look at it, there's no valuation support $TSLA $TSLAQ
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
2 years
We NEVER NEVER acknowledge even the tiniest probability that there's no business case and consumer demand for AR/VR. The Quest 2 was touted as the MVP for many years. People buy and don't use it The idea that the smartphone is the ultimate formfactor terrifies the Valley. $META
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
3 months
This @matt_levine excerpt from today demonstrates two adages of investing 1- Soros' "buy then investigate" 2- The reasons to make an investment are always obvious. You spend time working on the name to discover unknown reasons to not buy it.
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
9 months
@qcapital2020 They'll never recover from Abu Dhabi 2021, won't they?
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
2 years
$GOOGL: Cloud doesn't make a profit, has negative NPV on current valuation. Has 140k employees, lots of fat for Ruthless to cut if she wants. Huge margin of safety. Waymo optionality. OBVIOUS IN HINDSIGHT!
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
1 year
Fight shitcos! $CHTR $DIS
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
6 months
My girlfriend is a Phd student in CS doing research in LLMs. I still struggle to convince her to rely on LLMs for information. I have STRONG conviction we're not anywhere near a 25% drop in search queries in the next 2 years. $GOOGL $IT
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
4 months
$GOOGL is the ultimate AI company
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
2 years
$MSTR (short): The Street knows his magic numbers: $32k is when he goes negative and $22k when he's wiped. There's no fucking way that in a 5y horizon Bitcoin won't wipe Saylor, specially given he's one of the biggest whales. I have seen this movie before OBVIOUS IN HINDSIGHT!
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
4 months
$AMZN is cutting costs motherfuckers
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
10 months
@Noahpinion Bernie clearly showing he's way better than expectations, despite his terrible political views
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
1 month
It is so bearish that OAI is competing with $GOOGL instead of deploying GPT-5 😩😩😩 $MSFT
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
12 days
SLIDES UNTIL THE FIRST FINANCIALS APPEAR IN $SNOW QUARTERLY PRESENTATION Q3 FY21: 9 Q2 FY22: 9 Q2 FY23: 13 Q2 FY24: 14 Q2 FY25: 16 Financials only appear AFTER SIXTEEN slides now!! People will ask: where were the signs?
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
9 months
The man died in an all time high. An incredible steward of other people's money. RIP
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@MetacriticCap
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1 month
@SwannMarcus89 President Piñera just created the means for people to get their frustration in a Brexit-like environment, but without the downsides, because actually Chile is the best South American country, so changing it would mean worsening. It's a Macronian type of move that would make
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
2 years
$CRM We have a new CFO and a new CEO, and they are fully committed to those fucking operating margins. First principles thinking: If Salesforce can't have 30% margins, all SaaS is a zero. Lower multiple than Oracle. OBVIOUS IN HINDSIGHT!
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
7 months
$NFLX rallying 6% while groing 13% and trading ay 30x is a great example of @IdleLightkeeper evergreen tweet
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
2 years
$ATVI Two of the best CEOs ever have tons of money here. Brad Smith made Microsoft the only nice big tech, of course he'll close! Sen. Josh Hawley wrote a book called 'Tyranny of big tech" and doesn't mention MSFT once! Buffet is merge arbing! Big asymmetry... OB IN HINDSIGHT!
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@MetacriticCap
MetaCritic Capital
9 months
@ProfEricTalley I don't understand. The requirement for the job is to make $2m, change the rules so that calling for the genocide of Jews is against the Penn code of conduct, and enjoy the prestige? Seems pretty easy to me.
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