Advice to my 21 yr old self:
1) Take big risks in your 20s with your career and investments, swing for the fences. If you connect on a big swing it could materially change your life trajectory, and if you miss you still will likely learn more than not swinging at all.
Top Investment Podcasts:
1) Invest Like the Best
2) The Knowledge Project
3) a16z
4) The Jolly Swagman
5) Scuttleblurb
6) The Acquires Podcast
7) Masters of Scale
8) Focused Compounding
9) How I Built This
10) North Star Podcast
11) Investing City Podcast
What else?
The CFA is hot garbage, don’t put it CFA in your Twitter handle, no one on Twitter gives a shit, it actually looks bad.
Street cred is street cred, earn it, don’t proclaim it.
Been at Disney the past few days:
•Have not seen one person wearing a mask
•Obesity is a serious problem
•People get really bad tattoos
•Star Wars Galaxy Edge is legit awesome
•Saw three mid aged British guys drinking in the park at 8am, classy
What are some small caps stocks that you think are super cheap here?
I’m talking dirt cheap, not just kind of cheap. 2-5x in next few years type of cheap.
@ChrisJBakke
@BluthCapital
This is a lesson to everyone, if we can all take one lesson way from this it’s this:
“Don’t use excel for risk management while you’re sleeping with your Ponzi scheme hedge fund manager while funding a political party with clients money.”
Lesson learned.
Anyone got any new ideas in 10-100 Bagger land?
As a reminder they generally need to be:
•Small Enough (below $5B)
•Ability to reinvest capital at high rates
•Have a large addressable / potential market
•Has a good management team
Anyone got any new ideas in 10-100 Bagger land?
As a reminder they generally need to be:
•Small Enough (below $5B)
•Ability to reinvest capital at high rates
•Have a large addressable / potential market
•Has a good management team
$AMC is unraveling overnight
•CEO selling 75% shares
•CFO selling 100% shares
•CEO shooting down Illegal NFT squeeze idea
•Tara dumps on Marc on Spaces
•Community getting salty
I hope you got some puts on the board.
$SQ spending $30B to buy Afterpay (at 42 x Forward P/S) of while $PYPL built their own BNPL for prob less than $50m. 😳😳😳
Afterpay doing about $4.4B per quarter in GSV and PayPal doing $1.5B in GSV per quarter.
SPAC Stratgey 101:
1: Find the most ridiculously valued public company
2: Find it’s nearest private competitor to buy
3: Issue a ton of warrants
4: Compare SPAC to overvalued public company
5: Limit share float
6: Create Warrant arb & short squeeze
7: Yacht Party 🎉
👑 Emerging Moat Kings 👑
$ROKU - OTT Op System
$TTD - Digital Ad Platform
$SHOP - Ecommerce Platform (the anti AMZN)
$MTCH - All things Dating
$AYX - Process Automation (the anti Excel)
$LYV - Live Performance Everything
$ETSY - Alt E-commerce
I mean I’m a payments guy and all, but you guys are all sniffing glue if you think these BNPL companies are worth what everyone is paying for them.
There no moat and anyone with a POS or online checkout can do it. It’s like 4 lines of code and a bank routing #.
Anyone have any new ideas in 10-100 Bagger land?
As a reminder they generally need to be:
•Small Enough (below $5B)
•Ability to reinvest capital at high rates
•Have a large addressable / potential market
•Has a good management team
Anyone got any new ideas in 10-100 Bagger land?
As a reminder they generally need to be:
•Small Enough (below $5B)
•Ability to reinvest capital at high rates
•Have a large addressable / potential market
•Has a good management team
What if there is 4-5% inflation but we just keep telling people it’s 2%, how long will that work?
I mean we are at like year 7 and so far no one seems to have caught on.
Stop it. Stop quoting Square’s revenue including Bitcoin exchange sales which is counted as revenue at the full transaction amount not a fee like a real exchange.
This is a hill I will die on.
What is a small but exciting market or industry that could be 100 times larger than it currently is in 10-15 years?
Examples: Crypto in 2013, Cannabis in 2015
@marketplunger1
These is basically cannon of sci-fi- Hyperion - It’s two books long.
Foundation Series
Dune Series
Enders Game (original is amazing, Series kind of gets weird later on)
I liked:
A Fire Upon the Deep
Rendezvous with Rama
$ROKU a wildly misunderstood company.
It’s a TV OS with 60m user (ROKU Stick/ ROKU TVs)
It’s a AVOD Channel (The Roku Channel)
It’s a DSP (OneView)
It’s a TV wall garden, the only one.
It’s a beast, it’s position in streaming TV is unmatched.
I went through this entire list of ideas and let me say this is probably the best list I have received back so far from this poll.
My fav ideas are:
$TOI.V
$BDSX
$CLPT
$ORGS
$ID
$MXCT
$POSAF
$CFLT
$BFI
$DRIO
Anyone have any new ideas in 10-100 Bagger land?
As a reminder they generally need to be:
•Small Enough (below $5B)
•Ability to reinvest capital at high rates
•Have a large addressable / potential market
•Has a good management team
Anyone got any new ideas in 10-100 Bagger land?
As a reminder they generally need to be:
•Small Enough (below $5B)
•Ability to reinvest capital at high rates
•Have a large addressable / potential market
•Has a good management team
The people buying $NFLX right now are the exact same people that are going to be buying $ROKU in 2-4 years.
The real alpha is not buying a company with a clearly established moat, it's buying a company before everyone agrees it has a moat and being right.
What if, and I’m just spitballing here, Elon Musk is a fucking moron grifter that just jumps on to the last thought in his head that helps his near term psyche.
Seriously if you want to pay off a loan pay more than the minimum amount, stop with the “I paid $35,000 and I still owe $35,000 in loans”. It just shows that you’re a moron that doesn’t understand basic math or what your getting yourself into, not that the system is broken.
What are your best long ideas that could 2-4x over the next 12-18 months?
Here are mine:
$PLAY
$BXC
$PAR
$SHSP
$ANGI
Basically any E&P company that can survive but I have no idea which ones will.
@marketplunger1
When you wife asks “Which XXX do you like better?” just randomly pick one and say “that one I can’t stand the other one” even though you don’t care and have no preference whatso ever. Your logic doesn’t matter, your conviction is an acknowledgment that this decision is important
Guys I am releaseing a short report on a meme stock with a valuation of $31B and has a legacy business model that is in terminal decline and an investor bases that is batshit crazy. Keep and eye out to find out which one. 🔥🚀💩
Anyone have any new ideas in 10-100 Bagger land?
As a reminder they generally need to:
•Be small enough (below $5B Market cap)
•Have the ability to reinvest capital at high rates
•Have a large addressable / potential market
•Have a good management team
Anyone have any new ideas in 10-100 Bagger land?
As a reminder they generally need to:
•Be small enough (below $5B)
•Have the ability to reinvest capital at high rates
•Have a large addressable / potential market
•Have a good management team
Anyone have any new ideas in 10-100 Bagger land?
As a reminder they generally need to:
•Be small enough (below $5B)
•Have the ability to reinvest capital at high rates
•Have a large addressable / potential market
•Have a good management team
Anyone have any new ideas in 10-100 Bagger land?
As a reminder they generally need to:
•Be small enough (below $5B)
•Have the ability to reinvest capital at high rates
•Have a large addressable / potential market
•Have a good management team
Action plan
•Buy Twitter
•Charge $1500/month for a Corporate account
•Charge $50/month for a Blue Check Mark
•Charge $10/month for Twitter Blue add Edit Function to Blue accounts only
•Fire 2/3 of the R&D Team (doesn’t even matter which 2/3)
@GerberKawasaki
Shouldn’t you have gone through their financials before you became a bond holder, it is your responsibility to know what your buying as a fiduciary
Advice to my 21 yr old self:
2) No one knows anything. No one has it all figured out, no one is well trained or infallible. Most people are just faking it until they make it. Don’t think too highly of people just bc they are older, have more experience, or claim to be an expert
Remember in the Spring/Summer of 2008 when it was pretty clear that Housing was fucked and major bubble was bursting yet the market held in there for like 6 months.
Oh, no, no reason I’m bringing this up, none at all. 😉
Anyone got any new ideas in 10-100 Bagger land?
As a reminder they generally need to be:
•Small Enough (below $5B)
•Ability to reinvest capital at high rates
•Have a large addressable / potential market
•Has a good management team
Anyone got any new ideas in 10-100 Bagger land?
As a reminder they generally need to be:
•Small Enough (below $5B)
•Ability to reinvest capital at high rates
•Have a large addressable / potential market
•Has a good management team
What’s your “load the boat” value on favorite long term investment ideas where you would go max long at the valuation?
$U below $75
$ADYEN below $14
$ROKU below $120
Right now is actually the best time I can remember in recent history to be hunting for 10 baggers in SMID cap stocks.
A lot of heros are gonna be made from here.
I use the reverse DCF calculator on Gurufocus a lot, it’s a quick and easy way to see what growth assumptions are underpinned in a stock assuming mature margins.
$RICK priced at 10% growth
$PYPL priced at 18% growth
$TPB priced at 4.5% growth
Not gonna lie I am getting used to this self isolation thing. Drinking every night, wearing sweatpants to work, watching a lot of Netflix, no weekday commute, no kids activities, and did I mention the drinking every night .......
Here is my "Sell List - Crap"
These are the crapiest companies that I follow and I believe mid term will all be down. Note, all these have varying short dynamics, including high short float, low float, manipulative insiders, etc, so Do your own Due Diligence.
I’m extremely bullish on the pick and shovels of the coming Cell/Gene Therapy avalanche. IMO the general investing public doesn’t get how different the Cell/Gene Therapy model will be compared to the current centralized molecule model. Many additional service layers emerge.
The EV bubble is just another industry fad. You can make a direct line from 3D printing to Crypto to Cannabis to EVs. As the bubbles before it, it will end in tears for investors.
What is your favorite special situation right now?
Looking for:
▪️Spinoff
▪️Asset Sale
▪️Special buyback/dividend
▪️Potential M&A
▪️Rights offering
▪️Distressed asset
▪️Merger Arb
Post Covid-19 changes I expect:
1) Companies will be more conservative with balance sheets, especially cash positions where they know they may need months of cash just to survive.
2) Returns on Capital will fall in certain industries because of
#1
You know who is gonna make all the EV s? The same guys that made the ICE vehicles
You know why? BC it’s not about technology, it’s about supply chain, manufacturing, marketing, and sales channel
How much are they gonna make on EVs? About they same they make on ICEs
@TheStalwart
@crowdturtle
Get out your best non stick pan, coat it with a heaping amount of butter, bring steaks to room temperature, heat the pan up really hot (400 degrees), and then most importantly before cooking is to move out of New York City and buy a regular house, then put the steaks on and enjoy
Kind of hoping Software stocks overshot to the downside and they become pariahs for like 6 months so I can load the boat and retire to start my life as a professional craft beer taster.
Cell & Gene Therapy is on the cusp of multiple years of +50% growth. Seems like the biggest growth trend that is not reflected in the stocks that will benefit the most from it.
Annual Inquiry:
Who are the best small cap (<$5B) management team’s right now?
Traits to consider:
•Executed on what they said
•Adapted to adversity
•Strong capital allocation
•Good communication / IR
•Skin in the game
Top Drawdowns over the last week from any of my High Moat Lists:
$AYX -15.4%
$LYV -15.3%
$SHOP -13.3%
$CLB -12.2%
$WDAY -11.9%
$WIX -11.9%
$MA -11.3%
$TTD 11.3%
$TDG -10.8%
$V -10.8%
$AXTA -10.3%
$PYPL -10.3%
$ILMN -10%
$FLT -10%
What are the best small $POOL, $WSC, $CSU type rollups / serial acquirers that have a long runway, a well defined M&A strategy, and an excellent management team?
Advice to my 21 yr old self:
3) Keep learning, don’t slow down, actually speed up. At 21 even the smartest, best educated person can be outpaced by someone willing to keep learning. Learning doesn’t stop at school. With a smartphone literally everything is available to learn.
The people buying $NFLX right now are the exact same people that are going to be buying $ROKU in 2-4 years.
The real alpha is not buying a company with a clearly established moat, it's buying a company before everyone agrees it has a moat and being right.
George Santos gives a specific example of how he says GOP Rep. Nicole Malliotakis is using info from classified briefings to make money on stock trades.
Realized at 11pm last night that somehow one of our kids turned our fridge on to showroom mode where it doesn’t cool and lost an entire fridge worth of food including $400 of beef tenderloin.
Happy Thanksgiving Everyone!