$ASTS: The authoritative 179 page research report on
@AST_SpaceMobile
by fellow investor and friend
@thekookreport
. A must read for anyone interested in learning about the company from an investing, technological and/or business operations perspective.
$ASTS: Congrats
@AST_SpaceMobile
and
@ATT
! It looks like FirstNet's board just approved investment in D2D satellite coverage to enhance the network. FirstNet has an October Fiscal Year end, which means investment may come as soon as October 1st, 2024. Now we know why AST is NOT
Something an old boss told me once when I first started public investing and lost a lot of money on a position: "If you're not losing money somewhere in the portfolio, you're not taking enough risk."
#spacs
#spacsquad
$ASTS: Imagine how happy these employees are. They worked their asses off and burned the midnight oil for years while hedge funds and activist shorts decimated their stock, which represented their dream of a better life and future. Did they give up? No, they kept working hard and
$ASTS: A few thoughts
1) Verizon purchased $35M of convertible notes at same exact terms as the $110M convert done by Google, AT&T and Vodafone. However other strategics that are in discussion with the AST to invest in the convert will have to pay a higher conversion price based
$ASTS: tip of the hat to OG SpaceMob member and dear friend
@steve_larrison
who passed away on 2/24/23. I'll be taking his remains to Cape Canaveral and putting them in a special place where he will be able to watch all of the
@AST_SpaceMobile
BlueBirds reach the heavens to
I am very sad to report that
@steve_larrison
passed away on February, 21, 2023. He is an OG
#spacemob
member and was a dear friend to everyone in the community. He helped me through some dark days. I'll miss your unconditional kindness and sharp wit. God speed my friend.❤️
$ASTS: Shoutout to the Swedish farmer and engineering GOAT
@CatSE___ApeX___
! Without your detailed technological knowledge, not sure we all would have had the conviction to hold our positions in size.
I am very sad to report that
@steve_larrison
passed away on February, 21, 2023. He is an OG
#spacemob
member and was a dear friend to everyone in the community. He helped me through some dark days. I'll miss your unconditional kindness and sharp wit. God speed my friend.❤️
🛰️ $ASTS Congrats Abel & team on the successful launch and delivery of BlueWalker 3 into orbit. Excited to have been part of this monumental occasion and looking forward to supporting your mission to Connect the Unconnected.
✌️
@AST_SpaceMobile
is going to change the world! 🌎
$ASTS: Hedge Funds tried to walk the price down last night during the quarterly update. It may have worked in the past, but NOT ANYMORE.
Strong quarterly update with plenty of cash in the coffers and more on the way (warrant redemption $145M, achieving pre-payment milestones
1/ $ASTS is working with the world's top wireless carriers and technology providers. Each of these parties conducted significant due diligence before committing to work with, and in some cases, invest in
@AST_SpaceMobile
. Don't take my word for it, a growing thread:
$ASTS: this is huge!!! AST, AT&T and Verizon can apply for SCS service. Also SpaceX and T-Mobile won’t be able to use their D2C satellites for service until they change their architecture or do something else? to adhere to interference limits.
FCC has finalized rules that now will allow Verizon $VZN and $T to do a joint spectrum lease filing.
This expands on the SCS regulations and was published today.
@scottwisniews
@AbelAvellan
$ASTS: It's entertaining to see SpaceX and T-Mobile scrambling to have power limits raised for their D2C satellites. It's important to understand that the FCC's Supplemental Coverage from Space (SCS) was established as SECONDARY to terrestrial mobile service. Satellite
Hearing from bankers and sponsors that SPAC mergers are getting repriced and delayed due to pushback from PIPE investors on valuation. Thank goodness.
#spacs
#spacsquad
$ASTS: Two badass
@AST_SpaceMobile
engineers testing 5G connectivity from BlueWalker-3 in space to unmodified AT&T mobile phones in a complete dead zone in Maui, Hawaii.
$ASTS: Scotia Bank Upgrades PT to $45.90 from $28. Reiterates Sector Outperform rating. Report below.
“Increasing emergency-response revenues and lowering funding costs; raising target to US $45.90/share (fully diluted). Considering ASTS’s coverage potential and FirstNet’s
$ASTS: GAME OVER. AST signs Verizon as customer and get $100M investment!!!
AST SpaceMobile and Verizon Announce Plans to Target 100 Percent Geographical Coverage of the Continental United States from Space on Premium 850 MHz Cellular Spectrum
$ASTS: AST SpaceMobile Announces First Five Commercial Satellites Completed Final Assembly and Ready for Shipment the First Week of August
Great to see company hit guidance for July/August delivery. See you all at launch in September!
$ASTS: If you think the stock price action is interesting now, wait until the real price discovery happens when institutions start accumulating in size. I understand there's been a big uptick in institutional requests for expert network reports on $ASTS over the last few weeks 👀
$ASTS: FCC unanimously approves and adopts Supplemental Coverage from Space framework. This is a historic regulatory milestone for a technology that just a few years ago was deemed impossible. Congrats
@AST_SpaceMobile
for blazing the trail for US leadership.
$ASTS: the most profitable positions are the ones that test your resolve the most. Congrats to those that stuck through the dark times. 👊
To the shorts and haters, how you like them apples?
$ASTS: seeing capitulation across the board, which is understandable given the delays and disappointment. I'm sorry to all that have lost money. I'm sticking with my position for better or worse.
1/ $ASTS
@ast_spacemobile
: Invest in the Space Mobile Provider that Will Disrupt the Entire Wireless Industry.
A Different Perspective on What's Really at Stake. Mega thread Below.
@MarioNawfal
Ah yes Musk copying and following the leader $ASTS
@AST_SpaceMobile
into the Direct-to-Cellular market. While Starlink hopes to provide limited texting, AST will be providing full broadband to unmodified mobile phones of AT&T and Verizon subscribers. Yes AST has partnered with
$ASTS: AST SpaceMobile is like a pre-revenue biotech company that completed successful Phase III trials and has received FDA approval for launch. However, AST is working with all the top global pharma companies for distribution where they will each pay AST 50c for each $1 sold to
$ASTS: we are now becoming part of the zeitgeist. One day the tagline will be: “AST Spacemobile, the largest wireless company in the world”
Still early days 👍
$ASTS: AST updated their website with some new content. Block-1 BlueBird string of pearls GIF unlocked. This was uploaded to Tenor and Giphy and should be available soon.
1/ $ASTS THIS IS IT. AT&T, known for being conservative (Ma Bell upbringing?), has thrown down the gauntlet. CEO John Stankey is on a mission to educate everyone that AT&T and AST will be the only provider of broadband to unmodified mobile phones.
1/ $ASTS: This chart of SpaceX valuation vs. milestones achieved seems to resonate even more as an analogy for AST SpaceMobile. SpaceX last valuation was at $200B of which Morgan Stanley attributes 60% or $120B to Starlink. AST is currently valued at $5B.
$ASTS: Never forget where we are and where we are going.
+ 5x Block-1 satellites launch in September to kick off commercial service with AT&T + Verizon (70% of US market!), Vodafone and unnamed US Gov and DoD partners
+ A portion of $110M of revenue prepayments from AT&T,
$ASTS: 8/26/24 Scotia Bank Upgrades Price Target to $45.90 from $28.00 and Maintains Sector Outperform Rating
"Scotiabank analyst Andres Coello raised the firm's price target on AST SpaceMobile to $45.90 from $28 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm's rating is
$ASTS: FUNDING SECURED. Up to ~$289M near-term funding coming through the door.
+$145M warrant redemption, $67M already exercised (total possibly higher if more private warrants converted to public)
+$34M raised since 6/30 from now retired ATM
Some portion of these
$ASTS $ASTSW: AST announces redemption of public warrants that will cease trading on Friday September 27th, 2024 @ 5pm. Holders will need to decide whether they want to exercise or sell the warrants prior to Friday September 27th, 2024. I'll do a longer post on the mechanics and
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, BUT SOME THOUGHTS:
A reminder to folks not to overextend yourself. Your financial situation is your own and different than anyone else. If you've made exceptional profit on a situation, ideally you should try to set aside at least 1x or more of your
$ASTS: Verizon $VZ calls out new partnership with AST will help achieve 100% coverage in the US on their earnings call:
“We now have nearly half of our network traffic running on ultra-wide band, up from 36% a year ago. That number will continue to grow as we expand C-band
$ASTS: It's great to see so many investors post Q2 2024 quarterly update threads, so I'll keep my very brief. These are the key points for me:
- Block-1 launch first half September 🚀
- Block-1 to provide limited nationwide US service with AT&T and Verizon beta testers in coming
$ASTS: Scotia Bank 8/15/24 upgrade to $28 from $21.10 and maintains Buy rating. Here's the report below.
"If the FCC stays firm on EPFD rules, ASTS could find itself as the sole licensed SCS player in the world’s richest telecom market, giving it a precious pioneering advantage;
$ASTS: Great promotional video by AST! Some great nuggets
+ 120mbps peak data rate to your unmodified phone
+ Utilization of low-band spectrum will allow for service to work in some buildings
+ Service will work on airplanes
+ FirstNet disaster coverage is a clear KILLER APP
1/ $ASTS: Scotia Bank upgrades Price Target to $21.10 from $12.90. "Our $21.10/share estimate remains a conservative target subject to significant upside."
$ASTS: Thoughts from Q2 Update and Mgmt Discussion:
1) Now we know why they did the painful offering in June. Closed $115M of non-dilutive debt and $64.3M of equity to accelerate Block 2 dev (confirmed launch in 2024). This progress opened up the ability to do a capital raise
$ASTS: Scotia Bank 7/31 "First Pricing Reference Above our Projections; Regulatory Update on SpaceX's Interference Issues"
"Considering AT&T and Verizon have 146.4M postpaid phone customers (184M including prepaid), the 30% to 40% adoption rate would represent between $5.3B and
$ASTS nothing prepares you for the awesomeness of a rocket launch. Notice the delay and how long it takes for the sound to travel.
#spacemob
@AST_SpaceMobile
$ASTS: Is history repeating itself? Looks like we're back in the consolidation period for a second bullish pennant heading into the Block-1 launch in 2-3 weeks. Will confirmation of launch date, FirstNet funding or successful launch cause the next breakout?
"In technical
$ASTS: thank you to short sellers who forced us to dig deeper in our research which galvanized our conviction and resolve. Like Sméagol in Lord of the Rings, you had a part to play in this incredible journey. Thank you for your sacrifice. ❤️
$ASTS: Discussions with strategic partners on raising additional capital going well. Does not need to utilize remaining debt facility and will not be pursuing an underwritten equity offering this year.
1/ $ASTS:
@ast_spacemobile
and strategic partner
@ATT
are working together to deliver next generation satcomm solutions to the US armed forces. Let's recap the last few days of activity and assemble the pieces of the mosaic.
$ASTS: UBS upgrades Price Target to $30 from $13 and maintains Buy rating.
"While UBS still sees AST SpaceMobile as a high-risk, high-reward investment, initial U.S. regulatory approval, the imminent launch of its first commercial satellites, and partner/funding progress add to
$ASTS: When I first met Abel prior to AST going public, this was a key driver of my investment.
This man has taken no salary, has not sold a single share and ALL of his incentive is in his stock ownership. He's FULLY aligned with shareholders.
A nice reminder that the man driving $ASTS does not take a salary. Abel is making all of his money alongside shareholders through his stock ownership. This is what leadership looks like. Invest behind owner-operators with great vision and the ability to attract a great team.
$TWLO to be acquired? 8-K dropped last night where co added double triggers to employee agmts for CEO, CFO and other execs. These mechanisms are typically put in prior to a sale transaction to retain/protect key executives. Took a spec position.
$ASTS: Deutsche Bank Buy, Raises PT $22
"AST announced that it has finalized a commercial agreement with AT&T, its first definitive agreement with a wireless carrier partner to date. We believe the agreement is a significant milestone and an important step towards launching
$ASTS: The $40 didn't quite happen, but we got pretty damn close. I'm going to down some cold medicine again tonight and see if I have any more dreams.
Having a big PnL day certainly helps offset the effects of a fever!
$ASTS: Hearing real-time data suggests short sellers have increased their positions as the stock has moved up in the last few days.
OG short sellers know better, has to be new shorts right? 🤡
$ASTS: OG investor Hennessey Funds + Broad Run, one of the few institutions that understand AST SpaceMobile, provide a great Q2 update. $ASTS became the 10th largest position in the fund's portfolio at 5.62% at the end of Q2 compared to 1.25% at the end of Q1. HOWEVER, based on
$ASTS: Heard that a research analyst at a boutique TMT research firm held a call with institutional investors this past Monday 6/17/24, which probably explains the sharp rise in price with volume. Apparently the firm hosted an executive from Verizon to answer questions about the
$ASTS: Partner and Prime Contractor Fairwinds Technology confirming on their website that AST's initial satellites will focus on low band 690-960MHz and mid band 1.5-2.2GHz cellular spectrum. This should enable AST to service any and all MNOs and governments globally.
$ASTS: This is what institutional investors see on the Bloomberg Social Media activity news feed. Not sure how the filtering algorithm works, but my tweets seem to make the cut.
$ASTS: Believe it or not, hearing shorts have pressed into this move higher. I think they’re in for a big surprise next week at the company’s quarterly update.
1/ $ASTS: Did you know New Providence sponsor Alex Coleman has not sold any shares or warrants since helping take
@AST_SpaceMobile
public in 2021? (He did gift a total of 400,000 shares to a trust set up for his family in 2022). This guy diamond handed the entire way through.
$ASTS: Very interesting timing that Verizon $VZ is now looking to offload 5,000 to 6,000 more of its towers right after investing in and signing a deal with AST SpaceMobile.
1/ $ASTS SpaceX and T-Mobile just announced a satellite direct to phone messaging service partnership with the hope of using a slice of T-Mobile PCS spectrum to provide emergency services. A large phased array of 7m will be incorporated into Starlink 2 satellites to enable...
$ASTS: 8/29/24 B. Riley Upgrades Price Target to $36 from $26 and reiterates BUY
"B. Riley raised the firm's price target on AST SpaceMobile to $36 from $26 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company is about to enter commercial service with its first five BlueBird
$ASTS: These shorts really did press into the lows and on the way up even after Google, AT&T and Vodafone invested! ☠️☠️☠️
If you liked shorting at $2, you're going to love covering at $20.
$ASTS: Jefferies Space Summit Takes 6/24
"On the TAM side, competition is negligible because the service does not exist. Market research estimates 10s of $ billions per year and upwards of hundreds of million of potential subscribers. Building and identifying that market is the
1/ $ASTS 11/22 Deutsche Bank: BUY and RAISES PT to $32
"The ability to launch and effectively deploy such a large system in space was the most meaningful technical hurdle for the early-stage company, according to critics of the design that we spoke with...
1/ $ASTS: We have just removed huge binary risks, which were failure of launch and orbit, and a dud satellite. Up next is unfurling the phased array. As each node is derisked, the stock *should* rerate higher as probability of success increases. Institutions should be...
$ASTS: Feeling very bullish on this Founder who has been sleeping on the factory floor in Midland, TX to ensure the Block 1 BlueBirds get built and tested on time for Q1 launch. Funding will be coming any day now.
$ASTS: Looks like Class A common shares increased from 151.5M on 8/12 to 157.4M on 8/22 according to 13D just filed. This increase was from EARLY EXERCISE of 5.9M public warrants out of 12.7M in total, bringing in $68M of cash on the balance sheet. So the narrative that there'd
$ASTS: It’s happening 🚀🚀🚀
Thanks
@JRosenworcelFCC
! Let’s make sure US companies 🇺🇸, like
@AST_SpaceMobile
and
@ATT
, lead in next generation space technology to connect the unconnected 🫡
$ASTS: Brazilian National Telecom Agency approves D2D trials between
@AST_SpaceMobile
and MNOs
@TIMBrasil
and
@ClaroBrasil
. This is the first time I've seen news that Claro Brasil is working with AST SpaceMobile. That's now 121M subs in Brasil - 61M for TIM and 60M for Claro.