Paul, not a CFA Profile Banner
Paul, not a CFA Profile
Paul, not a CFA

@Investmentideen

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Investor.

Germany
Joined July 2020
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
1 month
I opened up a second account on IBKR this year which is about 4x the size of my previous account and grew YTD by ~57%. The other one, which I was tracking over the past years, returned 28.50%
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
8 months
Closed this year with +35.12% - my 4th year in a row outperforming the S&P 500 and 3/4 years QQQ. 2021 +148% 2022 -12.5% 2023 +35.12%
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
1 year
1/ Over the last 10+ years, I've read hundreds of scripts, investor letters, and books on value investing. This is a thread on how you can speed up your learning process and how I would start over again if I would have to start from zero . A thread ⬇️
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
2 years
(Part 1) Here's a clip of Buffett answering how he would invest differently with a $1m portfolio to get to a 50% CAGR. Hint: Buy small stuff at 2x earnings and flip it.
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
1 year
1/ Did you ever find yourself struggling to calculate the fair value of a business and the expected IRR? In this thread, I will guide you through a simplified method to calculate the fair value and the expected return of an investment. A thread + Excel Sheet ⬇️
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
1 year
1/ Joel Greenblatt returned +5.097% from 1985 to 1994. For anyone who want's to become a serious investor, studying him was the best thing I ever did. Below are his interviews, classes and anything related to him that I've been studying. ⬇️
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
3 years
IMO, best resources for DIY Investors: ⚬ Greenblatt Class Notes ⚬ YCBASMG (Greenblatt) ⚬ Greenwald Class notes ⚬ 100 Baggers ⚬ The Outsiders ⚬ Quality of Earnings ⚬ Financial Shenanigans ⚬ One Up on Wall Street ⚬ Fortunes in Special Situations anything left?
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
3 years
Twitter is a dangerous place for starting investors. Full of 100k accounts that provide bad financial advice. Here's my advice: The number of followers is not a guarantee for knowledgeability.
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
3 years
Contrary opinion: deep dives are a waste of time. An investment thesis should fit into one page. Deep dives provide a feeling of security and blur what really matters. Understanding the key driver of an investment thesis lead to excess returns.
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
20 days
Got myself a present. SMP compounded at a 16% CAGR over 40+ years.
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
1 year
1/ A thread I'm investing in small and micro caps for 5+ years now. I wen't into that space after discovering the "small cap discover lifecycle". This framework is for those, who want to become professional small cap investors with better IRRs. Framework below ⬇️
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
2 years
I am always impressed by how simple investing can be: • buy small unpopular stocks in unpopular industries • buy along with insiders/ activists • buy cheap • buy from irrational investors And I still struggle to stick to these rules - sometimes.
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
4 months
I'm sitting on a pile of cash. Ready to be fully deployed. Any recommendations? 100€ wired to your bank account If I buy the stock. Criteria: road to be a 2x in 2 years (FCF Yield + EPS growth + multiple expansion), no large caps, no commodities. Exit P/E multiple no higher
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
1 year
1/ Capital allocation is CRUCIAL to ultimately UNLOCK shareholder value. Yet it took me years to figure out why. In this thread, I will elaborate more on its significance and why purchasing undervalued businesses alone isn't sufficient. A Thread ⬇️
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
3 years
How many of the guys who became financially free in 2020/2021 are now broke?
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
1 year
Removing Working Capital from FCF calculations Why should a whole business also be adjusted by any movements in working capital? Isn’t it useful to take into account movements in working capital to observe cash flow generating capacity? “Cashflow > Earnings”? Let me explain why
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
1 year
I want to share some thoughts on: • valuation, • avoiding value traps, and • when to apply which valuation metric. Disclaimer: I'm not a CFA. You shouldn't trust a guy without a paper that qualifies him as an expert. One of the main reasons why people end up in value
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
3 years
My Parents are Russian. I was born in Kasachstan. After the Collabs of the Sowjet Union, my Parents moved with less than 2.000 German Mark to Germany to provide me the opportunity of a better life. Today is the day, I feel ashamed for my roots and feel less Russian than ever.
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
3 years
1. My Investment Philosophy Buffett once said that if he could start over again, he would compound capital at a 50% CAGR. How would he do that? He would buy high ROIC businesses in special situations. My role model for the young Warren is Joel Greenblatt.
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
1 year
1/ 🧵(Repost) I'm investing in small and micro caps for 5+ years now. I wen't into that space after discovering the "multi-bagger discover lifecycle". This framework is for those, who want to find their first micro cap multi-bagger. Framework below ⬇️
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Paul, not a CFA
11 months
Had a conversation with a friend just yesterday. Thought some of you might be interested. My thoughts on what made Joel Greenblatt and early Buffett this successful.
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
1 year
This is exactly the point towards outperforming the market. Quality at any price investors might not want to hear that, but ONLY price matters in investing. I can't stop repeating myself, but the only way to beat the market over the long-term is by buying cheap, cheap, cheap.
@hermansen_folke
Folke Hermansen
1 year
I had no idea the relationship between PE and returns was so strong
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Paul, not a CFA
1 year
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
3 years
I've to repeat: Valuation matters. Even if you're buying the world's best businesses. Except $GOOGL. You can buy $GOOGL at any price.
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
1 year
Here’s an advice to anybody who wants to become a better investor: If you’re advanced, you should stop reading books and investor letters. You might not be aware of it, but you’re actually procrastinating. This is what people do to feel good. They pretend learning, while
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
1 year
I'm sharing a potential Investment Idea with a catalyst, a hidden asset, reversion to the mean and underlying earnings hidden by a bad business. Disclosure: I've no position in SVT MC: $30m | $4m Cash | $24m property | $5.3m EBIT | $4m Retirment obligations EV/EBIT: 1.13x I
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
11 months
THE MORE I THINK ABOUT IT the more I start to believe that MICRO CAPS ARE INEFFICIENT IN GENERAL and that many opportunities trade at a discount for no reason besides the fact that they’re illiquid and/or undiscovered. The bigger the market cap, the more likely it is that it’s
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
2 years
Two personal announcements: I turned 29 today & quit my job at Constellation.
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
8 months
Closed this year with +35.12% - my 4th year in a row outperforming the S&P 500 and 3/4 years QQQ. 2021 +148% 2022 -12.5% 2023 +35.12%
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
11 months
🟩YTD 2023: +24.56% vs S&P +12% Added two new positions this quarter. One is $BVS.AX and the other one is undisclosed. Had a few drags on my performance in the last two years. The main drags coming from the decision not to sell. Most know that I own a media company.
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
3 years
1/ My definition of a GREAT "Deep Dive" in a Thread: One of my most important lessons from 10 years of investing was realizing what it actually means to understand a business. Hint: You only understand a business if you are able to have a proper discussion about the financials
@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
3 years
Contrary opinion: deep dives are a waste of time. An investment thesis should fit into one page. Deep dives provide a feeling of security and blur what really matters. Understanding the key driver of an investment thesis lead to excess returns.
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
9 months
Sharing my entire portfolio today (order by size): $KINO.L $SGN.WA $NZM.AX $JOB $BVS.AX $TSRI $IBPO.L $NCMI
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
11 months
1. In 2021, I wrote a thread on my investment philosophy. Since then, I've learned and changed a lot. Let's revisit my statements. Thread below
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
2 years
(Part 2)
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
3 years
The #neversell movement is my absolute favorite investment NONSENSE of this decade. A thought-out exit strategy matters and I recommend having one. Try this one: Consider selling when the risk of multiple contraction outweights the upside of EPS growth.
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
2 years
1/ Guys, just want to release a little bit of content and share a few things I wished I would have learned much earlier in my investing career. Here's some stuff that changed how I think about investing today vs 10 years ago.
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
3 years
1/ I receive a lot of push back from Growth investors. Here's a thread that explains my approach and how it differs from common growth wisdom out there. There are many ways to make money in the stock market. This one works best for me.
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
3 years
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
3 years
1/ If You Struggle Generating Investment Ideas, HERE'S "HOW YOU CAN BECOME A STRUCTURED IDEA GENERATOR." + CASE STUDY🧵 This Approach Will Help You - No Matter Which Geography You Are Investing In.
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
3 years
Proof me wrong, but I believe that looking for undiscovered small caps with underlying structural change is a much less riskier strategy compared to being a contrarian trying to outsmart an army of investment analysts.
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
3 years
Just came across $BDX who's preparing to spin off its worldwide market-leading insulin pen production business as Embecta Corp. Just 1/20 of the total revenue with >40% EBIT-Margins and superior ROICs. One of the more exciting businesses that will come to market in Q2.
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
1 year
It took me many many years just to realize that investing is all about buying businesses with: a) good capital allocation a) low price No growth or quality necessary to make money.
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
1 year
The absolute best Resource on value Investing out there. The Joel Greenblatt Class Notes
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
1 year
Some people never heard of survivorship bias. Imagine, paying 281x earnings for L‘Oreal in 1973 and having the confidence that you’ll make a 7% IRR. The other 9 businesses that you’ve paid 281x earnings for are meanwhile bankrupt.
@CharlieMunger00
Charlie Munger Fans
1 year
Be wary using P/E it will TRAP you ❌ You could have paid 281x earnings for L’Oréal in 1973 & still beaten the index "If a business earns 18% on capital over twenty or thirty years, even if you pay an expensive looking price, you’ll end up with one hell of a result" ---
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
4 months
Any reason I shouldn’t be interested in $MTCH at 10x fcf returning almost everything through buybacks?
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
1 year
Growth vs. Maintenance (Working Capital) Part 1/2 On your point regarding “excluding working capital” are you saying to subtract changes in working capital or to just not include it in the calculation of owner earnings at all? if the former, how do you go about determining the
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
1 year
Here are simple questions I like to ask whenever someone pitches a stock to me: 1. Company is trading below NAV/Book Value/Acquisition Value/SOTP What makes you sure that the gap will close? (Is there a catalyst?) 2. Low P/E a. What makes you sure that you'll receive the
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
3 years
Collection of Twitter Threads 1/ My Investment Philosophy
@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
3 years
1. My Investment Philosophy Buffett once said that if he could start over again, he would compound capital at a 50% CAGR. How would he do that? He would buy high ROIC businesses in special situations. My role model for the young Warren is Joel Greenblatt.
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
1 year
#KINO $KINO.L KINOVO Here is my updated investment case for KINOVO + Valuation I believe that the current non-binding offer of 56p/share undervalues the business significantly and is an attempt to rip current shareholders off. Any offer below 130p/share doesn’t value the
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
7 months
I’ve to admit that using stock screeners for ideas works. This is a new learning. Recently created a screen, went only through a few dozen companies and managed to identify some very interesting opportunities. Nothing screaming cheap, but some stuff at 10x earnings with 10%
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
3 years
I am still alive and $CSU.TO is doing good, too. PS: increased $PLBY to my second largest position over the last 3 trading days.
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
2 years
Just realized how much I learned about investing over the last 3 years by researching small caps vs 7 years of investing in large caps. Researching small caps is the #1 investing advice I would give my younger self.
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
2 years
Buffett, after he realized that his net worth got too big and it's not possible to flip small illiquid businesses at 2x earnings anymore.
@QCompounding
Compounding Quality
2 years
“Our favorite holding period is forever.” - Warren Buffett
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
1 year
3/ To get there, you'll have to spend a lot of time educating yourself, and you'll probably waste a lot of time reading the wrong material. If I would start over again, I would read and reread the "Greenblatt Class Notes" until I finally understood everything.
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
3 years
Seth Klarman's "Margin of Safety" is still a hidden gem and 100x better than "intelligent investor", but still never read by many.
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
1 year
4/ I would read and reread "you can be a stock market genius". I would read and reread "Margin of Safety" by Seth Klarman. I would listen to and study all episodes of @FocusedCompound & #GEOFF . I would listen to all podcasts with Joel Greenblatt as a guest.
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
11 months
I don’t know anything about $XPEL, but this seems to be one of those prime examples why I don’t do watchlist (except for companies that I consider cheap today and would be willing to buy). Imagine, you’ve been following XPEL for years saying that you’re willing to buy shares
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
1 year
Whenever I don’t know what to read, I find myself reading through Geoff Gannon‘s blog compilation. This is at par with Joel Greenblatt‘s Class Notes and one of the best resources out there.
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
1 year
@long_equity All of the ratios aren’t suitable for investing as they do not provide any information. Here’s why: First of all, FCF is a horrible number as it is very volatile. Investors should understand FCF and adjusted the P&L by one offs. This way, investors will get a better
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
3 years
1/ Investmentidea | $NABL | Spin-Off Let me tell you about one of the best-managed public software companies I came across. 🇺🇸 $NABL: - Spin-Off date: 19th July - 15% Rev-CAGR while maintaining a 27% FCF-margin - mission-critical software - Unfavorable GAAP-Earnings
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
3 years
1/ Here's my performance for 2021. H1 2021: +47.6% H2 2021: +64.3% Total: +142% I believe you don't care how I did it, but if you do here's how:
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
1 year
It's been a while since I shared my portfolio. There're a few new additions. Order by size: • Kinovo PLC $KINO.L; • Newspaper business; • Sygnity $SGN; • GEE GROUP $JOB; • Northern Bear #NTBR ; • National CineMedia Inc. $NCMI; • Volvere PLC #VLE ; Got some options, too:
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
1 year
Just finished skimming through „What works on Wall Street“. I’ll make It short. The most effective approach to maximize your IRR requires investing in the least expensive 10% of small, illiquid companies. Thank me later.
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
3 years
I AM A PROUD $CSU.TO SHAREHOLDER * * bought my very first share today.
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
1 year
I would like to share some thoughts on the following topics: • The significance of understanding a business • Effective approaches for initiating company research • Price-to-Sales ratio as an initial metric for analysis • Establishing a connection between financials and the
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
8 months
Have to admit that joining Twitter in 2020 was one of my best decisions. Met a bunch of fellow investors and learned more about investing from others here on „X“ than I did the years before.
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
1 year
1/ 1st Twitter Space (LINK BELOW) I'm very honoured to have @PaulAndreola as a Guest on Sunday, the 27th of August at 9 PM (CET) / 12 PM (PDT). He's considered as one of the most successful micro cap investors. During this space we will dig into his investment framework.
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
3 years
Rob Vinall: "The Chinese government is not looking to destroy its internet champions" RV Capital 19.8% CAGR over 13 years $BABA $TCEHY $JD
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
2 years
Here's my No. 1 Catalyst: Trading at a huge discount on any valuation metric + improvement in capital allocation. Cheap stocks and good capital allocator take care of themselves.
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
4 months
Here we go. Was buying, and buying, and buying. Disclosure: I meanwhile own 1.2% of the company. After this jump, my YTD performance looks way better.
@finance_schmidt
Christian Schmidt
4 months
$KINO.L #KINO Trading Update. Operating results significantly better than expected. DCB 7 of 9 projects completed.
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
3 years
1/ $JOB is my favorite 2022 micro cap idea and will be a double from this levels. Job trades at less than 5.5x NTM EV/FCF. Not screenable yet with a restructured balance sheet and prime Management Team.
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
1 year
I’m doing it completely different. Especially when it comes to micro caps, there’s no reason to do hours and hours of work in advance. Wait for the inflection point/ catalyst and then start your due diligence. This approach below is for large cap GARP investors where most
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
19 days
My 5 largest $KINO.L $IMB.AX $SGN.WA $SUP.L $COV.V
@hurdle_rate
Tristan
19 days
In no specific order $7378.T $DSW.L $9928.T $SEQ.AX $AFL.AX
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
1 year
Oh boy, here are my thoughts on • margin of safety • circle of competence • moat I invited @long_equity to a space to discuss hist takes, but I believe he won't be joining me. Hence, here comes my monologue. First of all, all of the three above are related towards valuation
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
1 year
Whoever didn’t make it, here’s the recording. Feel free to dm me your feedback. Guest: @PaulAndreola Host: @Investmentideen
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
4 months
Here’s a list in no particular order with all the companies I currently own shares of.
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
1 year
Here are two advises to improve your returns: • applying a higher hurdle rate and • incorporating a margin of safety. 1. Aim high: Setting a higher hurdle rate When it comes to investing, aiming high can lead to remarkable results. When I started, I aimed at a target of a
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
1 year
It’s now official. I’ll host my first space on the 27th of August. My special guest will be one of the most successful micro and small cap investors on earth. He discovered some of the best performing companies before anyone else did. Anyone wants to guess?
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
1 year
5/ Further, I would watch all Joel Greenblatt classes on Youtube. Read every class note ever published by Bruce Greenwald ( @Scribd ) I would read and reread all investors letters of @CapitalVoss , @LaughingH20Cap @Symmetry_Invest @alluvialcapital and study their investments.
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
3 years
🇺🇸 $JOB is a Micro Cap Idea trading at 5.5x NTM FCF. Obscure. Small. Ugly. Cheap. The math is simple. You find the math below. The market has overlooked this one. $JOB will be another double.
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
1 year
It's now 12 years since I bought my very first stock. Here are 8 unique lessons I've learned during my career that made me a better investor. ⬇️
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
2 years
I am fully in value now. Sold my last $CDON share. My portfolio trades at ~6.5x Earnings (ex. cash).
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
11 months
🟩YTD 2023: +24.56% vs S&P +12% Added two new positions this quarter. One is $BVS.AX and the other one is undisclosed. Had a few drags on my performance in the last two years. The main drags coming from the decision not to sell. Most know that I own a media company.
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
1 year
🟩 H1 2023: +12.64%
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
1 year
The complementary Joel Greenbatt Columbia Business School Classes as a Video on Youtube
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
1 year
Applying a Private Market Framework to Public Equities I want to share a concept. This is how I think about investing in public markets. My idea when Investing in public markets is no different then what I would do when investing in private - non listed, businesses. The
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
2 years
Portfolio as of 01.04.2022: Overall the multiples seem to be low compared to any stock indices available for comparison.
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
2 years
Before all of you now start screening for equities trading at sub 2x earnings. Just letting you know that this won't work as the money is made in messy financials. You'll have to adjust the financials manually and uncover 100x P/E stocks that trade at a normalized P/E of 2x.
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
1 month
I‘m certain, there are very scared investors out there panic selling their illiquid shares and forcing a great business to drop significantly and trade at a ridiculous price. This should be the time where we should scout for those. Not buying MAG7 after the dip.
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
8 months
SECOND SPACE - Several months ago, I had the opportunity to sit down with Paul Andreola to discuss his investment approach. Now, I'm looking forward to hosting a conversation with Tristan, better known as @hurdle_rate . Tristan manages money for friends and family through the
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
1 year
Link Below Bobby Kraft invited me over for a conversation after spotting my thread on the "small cap discovery lifecycle". I am not taking any credits for that framework as I've copied it from Brandon Mackie and Paul Andreola. It's not easy for me to be precise with my
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
8 months
Happy new year everybody. For 2024, I want to stop calling out other investors and will likely just mute them. Anyways, hope to meet more investors in “X”. My DMs are open. Cheers, Paul
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
1 year
15/ This is it. A very simplified way of calculating the fair value of a business and estimating the return for every year. You find the excel sheet here:
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
1 year
ADVERTISEMENT My friend @CJ0pp3l has resently launched a subscription service over at @CJ0pp3l_Sub , priced at $10 per month. He's tracking the news, financials, acquisitions and anything else related to Constellation Software $CSU.TO and it's subsidiaries $TOI.V, $SGN.WA,
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
2 years
1/ After yesterday's thread, I would like to share one more. This time I would lead you around my thinking process when generating investment ideas. I shared my case study around $APG once and will share it this time in more depth.
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
1 year
Portfolio as of Today. $SGN.WS $KINO.L $JOB $NTBR.L $VLE.L #NTBR #KINO #VLE
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
3 years
The most powerful lever a publicly listed serial acquirer has is issuing shares at 10x EBIT and buying private businesses at 5x EBIT. Unfortunately, not enough publicly listed companies understand that playbook.
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
9 months
Returned 32% YDT. Will share some personal thoughts on the year in Jan. In general, I did very well. All performance down to the fact that most of my holdings have been super cheap with great capital allocators. Nevertheless, some fuck ups included.
@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
9 months
Sharing my entire portfolio today (order by size): $KINO.L $SGN.WA $NZM.AX $JOB $BVS.AX $TSRI $IBPO.L $NCMI
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
1 month
Oh boy, down almost 100k within two days and US didn’t open. lol.
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
2 years
1/ 1Q Performance Update | Portfolio | Notes This was a very volatile quarter with being down 20% and now being up 15.75%. On top of that, my Twitter account managed to grow to 7.400+ | Thanks to @frankinvesting & @InvestSpecial 2021: +142% 1Q 2022: +15.75%
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@Investmentideen
Paul, not a CFA
3 years
1/ Here's my performance for 2021. H1 2021: +47.6% H2 2021: +64.3% Total: +142% I believe you don't care how I did it, but if you do here's how:
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