Logical Thesis @LogicalThesis Twitter profile

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Logical Thesis

3 days

8/23/24 Portfolio Update (+54.5% YTD vs $SPY +18.9%) Long Term Core Holdings (76%) $ASPN 8% $TMDX 7% $EVO 6.7% $CLPT 6.3% $AMZN 6.1% $MELI 5.3% $DESP 4.7% $GENK 4.1% $CREX 4.1% $S 4% $ULTA 4% $AEP.V 3.8% $NU 3.1% $CPNG 3% $RKLB (Shares + LEAPS) 2.9% $HIMS 2.2% $VITL 1.3% $CELH

Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

10 days

8/16/24 Portfolio Update (+40% YTD vs $SPY +17.2%) Long Term Core Holdings (77%) $ASPN 8.7% $TMDX 7.4% $EVO 6.9% $AMZN 6.6% $CLPT 6.2% $MELI 5.7% $UBER 4.6% $DESP 4.5% $ULTA 4.4% $CREX 4.3% $AEP.V 4.2% $GENK 4.1% $S 3.3% $CPNG 3.2% $RKLB (shares + LEAPS) 3% $CELH Sold Puts

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

9 months

@ChrisJBakke That's clearly absurd but did she really need to say "EOD" when it's verbal? It's the same number of syllables as end of day lol

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

1 year

@Bornakang It's like how food spoils due to oxidization. We just have a longer shelf life

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

10 days

@anothercohen When you create $65B of shareholder value in 6y let us know!

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

2 months

@BankerWeimar Overcooked and didn't let it rest but otherwise a good effort

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

7 months

$AMZN is my favorite mega cap tech because they have a physical logistics moat that will NEVER be penetrated. No one can disrupt this. I will stand by this. It's physical. Not software. This doesn't even account for AWS lol. Just retail

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

1 year

What's absurd is $GOOGL: -22 PE, 3-6% growth -operating margins down from 30% to 25% (didnt post YoY change % in highlights section like they did with revenue) -highlight is reduction in depreciation ?? -SBC was lower in Q1 so rest of year will be worse +4% on these results LOL

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

8 months

$CPNG trading <15x trailing FCF and growing top line 20% is laughable.

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

2 months

@BankerWeimar I know that for grilling you under seasoned the steak. You think you're a "man" and can't properly season or cook a steak. Unfortunate

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

10 days

Today is my birthday. If I have added value to you in any way, I would really appreciate a retweet of any of my tweets🙏🏼

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

1 year

Why did Bezos buy 1 share? Lol $AMZN

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

3 months

Software could become a buy here soon. Many are 30-40% below recent highs What names are at the top of your list?

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

3 months

@SteveUrkelDude Ponzis with low liquidity. One whale exits = waterfall Rinse and repeat

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

2 years

My first Substack article is live! And it is about my largest position $PUBM If you have been curious about @PubMatic , I suggest giving this a read. It's a good overview and highlights what I think is most important about the investment thesis.

PubMatic: An Overlooked Small Cap

Fundamentally strong adtech company on the supply-side

logicalthesis.substack.com

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

1 month

Yea if you don't understand how big of an issue this is that $CRWD caused, idk what to tell you. But this isn't a buy the dip immediately moment

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

5 months

$TMDX is the best small cap on the market $AEP.V is the best micro cap on the market Bookmark it. If you disagree, tell me what you think is better

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

1 year

@JoeyMannarinoUS That's a very solid cut of filet. And 1lb is probably two pieces, not one. That's steakhouse quality filet Most filet you buy at the grocery store are thin and flimsy

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

6 months

I wanna buy stocks on margin. This is where we are. Someone talk me out of it lol

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

10 months

For all my $EVO fintwit peeps 2.7% div yield, 18 PE, 70% EBITDA margins, growing 20%+. US growth just getting started. RNG only makes up 15% of revenues. Live studio is a monster physical moat. They have a dominant 50% market share in a growing industry.

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

6 months

This might be the worst portfolio I've ever seen

Dividend Talks on YouTube

@DividendTalks

6 months

I wouldn’t touch about 98% of these Companies, how about you?

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

2 months

I lost my dad when I was 19. Life was a lot easier when he was around. I've learned to fend for myself. There's no pain like losing the provider for your household. Teach your sons and daughters to be strong. Teach them proper values. Treat them with kindness.

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

4 months

Warren Buffett won the game of investing. First to do it imo. He went from illiquid micro caps to not being able to invest in most companies due to size constraints. He won. Conquered it all. Nothing left to accomplish. Most complete career from probably anyone in any field.

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

2 years

What's your favorite micro or nano cap that you own today?

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

10 days

Days like today I feel validated. I spent the last couple months talking to our community during weekly workshops, sharing research and analyzing financials for $ASPN We collectively gained conviction. Feels great to nail it in size. My largest position

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

3 months

$FOUR CEO with another insider buy of $2M, totaling >$10M in the last month

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

2 months

@TradingThomas3 The leaker

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

4 months

I finally have cash for once - and enough for a new, big position What do you like most from here? Appreciate a 1-2 liner Thanks in advance!!

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

4 months

Idc what any of you say. $MELI -26% from the recent highs in <2months is a buying opportunity

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

7 months

My wife just lost her third pair of AirPods. This is the $AAPL long thesis

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

1 year

@LionheartInves1 I think the detriment of deep dives is irrational level of conviction associated with betting bigger. Every new detail is approached with confirmation bias in mind

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

1 year

$COCO went public at the 2021 peak and is +115% since. It's fkn coconut water at 126 PE. Insiders are in the process of exiting their stake (half the shares outstanding)

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

5 days

$TMDX +360% since 10mo ago when I tweeted the thesis Took balls to say this after 60%+ drawdown. Look at their results Exactly as I said it would play out, even better. No one wanted to touch this stock then. Small cap stocks are my calling.

Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

10 months

My thoughts on $TMDX aviation acq Let's talk about the stock: The way the stock is trading, I'd say there's one more puke in it. If I were to guess, it could come from if they say "it's going to take longer than we expected to integrate" Market is awaiting context/guidance 1/

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

7 months

No one in my family taught me stocks. No one encouraged me to invest. My family never had investments. I'm entirely self taught and self-motivated. I'm accountable for my own success. Can't imagine where I'd be if my parents thought like me. You're lucky if you had this.

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

9 months

I've been a bull, I've been a bear. You get more followers being a bear. You make more money being a bull.

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

3 months

@GRomePow Palm Springs is doing just fine lol I was just there and it was packed on a random weekend And you can still have airbnbs if neighboring cities

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

9 months

@buccocapital Shocker $W

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

2 months

$RKLB update +20% since Now flat on the year Give me my flowers💐

Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

3 months

$RKLB 👁️ Volume📈 +69% rev growth in recent Q

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

2 years

@dollarsanddata This is the technology used for SPAC presentations

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

1 year

Simple $coin short thesis: •SEC will require them to delist majority of their coins and halt staking •they would be left with major cryptos like $btc $eth which is listed on other brokers for lower commissions •they're already unprofitable, fixed costs stay high but revs⬇️ 1/

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

6 days

@blondesnmoney This is a very dumb thesis lmao

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

6 months

Celebrated all of my 10K followers last night (thx to wife). It's good to acknowledge milestones along the way or else what's the point Thank you all for following along. I hope to continue adding value to you on a daily basis. Let's make 2024 one for the books!📈📈

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

1 year

Added some $SE Gonna annualize some numbers for a simple valuation: •$15B EV and profitable. •$12B sales ~1X sales. 2.5x GP •$2B adj EBITDA, ~8X (my substitute for CFO) You'll say 'what about SBC?' •$330M net income in Q2, $1.2B annualized and increasing imo ~12x earnings?!

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

1 year

10 lessons I learned over the last three years in this market: 1) positioning is important to consider. Late investors get crushed. Example: Your thesis could be right, but shorting something down 80% is dangerous especially if short interest is high. Timing is key for shorts.

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

1 year

I am probably one of the only honest accounts actively learning and posting my thoughts/trades in real time. I treat twitter as my investing journal. I said countless times my fundamental ideas are likely spot on but the timing/execution of my trades need improvement. I'm

Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

1 year

For anyone curious, I'm basically flat on the year after going +17% in Q1. Basically gave back all my gains. Hurts. But I'll live. Learned a lot. Timing is hard. Options are hard. Probably easier to be market neutral if bearish vs having to take a position.

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

5 months

Q1 Portfolio Update (+22.2% YTD vs $SPY +10.7%) Long Term Core Holdings (70%) $EVO 10.5% $AEP.V 9.9% $TMDX 9.4% $AMZN 8.8% $CLPT 6.1% $CPNG 5.9% $APR.WA 4.2% $MELI 3.8% $NU 3.7% $DESP 3.3% $PRCT 2.6% $CREX 2.2% Cyclical Holds (34%) Crypto 15.4% $TNA 7.3% $PUBM 3% $LABU 2.8% $LC

Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

6 months

Portfolio Update 3/7/24 (+17.4% YTD vs $SPY +8.9%) Long Term Core Holdings (80%) $EVO 11.6% $TMDX 10.3% $AEP.V 9.5% $AMZN 9.2% $CPNG 6.5% $CLPT 5.8% $APR.WA 4.6% $MELI 4.1% $NU 3.8% $SWAV 3.5% $DESP 2.8% $PRCT 2.7% $CREX 2.4% Cyclical Holds (20%) Crypto 12% $PUBM 3.3% $LABU

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

3 months

Umm $ULTA is at 14x 2025 earnings and 19x TTM FCF? And the monthly looks good👀

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

2 years

We're 1 year deep into a bear market. If you're still here on fintwit interacting with other investors, reading deep dives, and filtering through stocks for opportunities, you deserve recognition. Great investors are made in tough times, persevering through negative sentiment.

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

2 years

The biggest scam in this country is telling 20 year olds to start saving for retirement a month out of college. So we're just working to enjoy life in our 60s. Hard pass

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

8 months

A weak dollar is bullish stocks. Especially international stocks I'm long several companies outside the US $EVO Sweden $CPNG South Korea $AEP.V Canada $LEAT South Africa $DUR.AX $MAD.AX Australia $APR.WA Poland $SE Singapore $DESP LatAm (new name coming this week)

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

7 months

I think $amzn is going to be the largest company in the future because it has more staying power than any other mega cap tech. How many Americans rely on $amzn for their retail at this point? They have a logistics advantage that can't be replicated

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

1 year

It's my beautiful fiancée's birthday🎉

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

1 year

$COIN just formally requested the SEC to provide regulatory clarity (left) Gensler: there's no lack of clarity, just lack of compliance (right), per Bittrex lawsuit PR They're further aggravating the SEC. Desperately grasping at straws. I think the timeline just sped up.

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

3 months

$ULTA bought back $1B in 2023. They just authorized another $2B in February ($18B market cap). Since, the stock dove 33%, and is at the cheapest valuation in its history (13x EPS). What do you think they're up to? $TGT just reported strength in beauty. Big loyalty customer base.

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

2 months

@RJRCapital You've been wrong for a year and yet your following doubled. Misery loves company

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

4 months

$TMDX $96.9M revenue +133% YoY $12.2M net income! Where are all the haters who said this company will never earn a profit? Aviation will destroy their margins. WHERE ARE YOU NOW They can GROW PROFITABLY Bears r ded

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

3 months

@_ali_taylor Powerful when you realize you can do all the same things where you live lol

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

11 days

$ASPN breakout from the downtrend and now above all moving averages I told you. It's the best earnings report I've ever read.

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

19 days

$ASPN just posted accelerated growth!!! +107% Q1 rev growth +145% Q2

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

1 year

Is it me or are the next 10 years of picking winners not as obvious? All these companies had mass consumer scale. Not sure anything in todays economy in growth has as big of a TAM

13F investor

@cloneinvestor

1 year

Greenbrier partners. Shad Rowe. Really sat on his ass this pass decade.

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

1 year

$CVS trades at like 0.25x sales... Balance sheet is meh here. Book price hiding the high goodwill. Lot of debt but positive cash flows so it's mostly fine. Close to a staple so cash flows should be resilient. Good divvy. anyone thinking of LEAPS here?

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

7 months

There will come a year $EVO will be up significantly, then by the time people pay attention they'll say "oh it's too expensive now" or "ah it already ran" or my favorite "wow it was so cheap then, why didn't we buy it"

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

1 year

I'm 30 today. Not sure how to feel. I've been through a lot. I'm happy with how far I've come, and I know there's still so much left in my journey. Here's to my 30s being prosperous and the best decade yet!

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

3 months

There are great content contributors on fintwit. Without them, this place would suck. @stocktalkweekly @WOLF_Financial @eliant_capital @BigBullCap @ZaStocks @epictrades1 @ruth_capital @kiantrades @TLAMB91 @anandragn @RyanReeves_ @JerryCap @agnostoxxx @RyanDetrick @JonahLupton

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

2 months

I mistakenly wrote off this company before checking the most recent facts, and lemme tell ya, I wish I paid attention sooner. $JMIA +57% revenue growth and operating cash flows infecting to positive $1.1B mcap for largest ecomm name in Africa $10B+ in 10y. Why not?

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

2 years

@JasonBedrick @juliaajohnson_ @JamesPindell Bro is tryna dunk on 8 year olds

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

5 months

My wife's cousin who hasn't traded since 2021 just texted me this lol It's so over

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

2 years

I quit daily coffee and smoking, and started eating healthier. It's insane how much better my body feels. I used to have acid reflux and feel my heart pound daily; now it's silence. I'm sure I'll go through unhealthy phases, but I'm proud of my will power.

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

4 months

My portfolio is up +5.5% today. Please keep trolling me, quote tweeting me, wtv it is you do. I swing big. I make bold calls. What do you do? Laugh at those who do?

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

1 year

Brian Armstrong getting tough with the SEC the same day he dumps stock. Watch actions - not words. Bittrex planning to fight SEC. Meanwhile, they winded down US operations. Watch actions - not words. $COIN

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

1 year

@TikTokInvestors Bro said interest rates are at ATHs

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

8 months

When people say "it will be a good buy another 10-20% lower" means it's already a good time to buy Saw this twice today with $CPNG and $HSY These are the people that will miss the pitch

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

1 year

@RagingVentures Insane that the stock moved 32% higher on you weeks after this tweet. Way to stick to the thesis👏🏼

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

14 days

@TicTocTick You should really Google the word deflation before tweeting about it

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

2 years

$pool at <16 TTM PE. Does E fall off a cliff or is this a huge opportunity? Haven't heard many talk about it recently

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

2 months

7/12/24 Portfolio Update (+41.1% YTD vs $SPY +18.5%) Long Term Core Holdings (82%) $TMDX 12.8% $AMZN 8% $EVO 7.9% $CLPT 6.2% $AEP.V 5.5% $CPNG 5.1% $FOUR 5.1% $MELI 4.4% $CREX 4.2% $NU 3.9% $GENK 3.6% $DESP 3.2% $RAMP 2.9% $ASPN Calls 2.5% $MXCT 2% $DESP Calls 1.5% $DUR.AX 1.4%

Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

2 months

7/8/24 Portfolio Update (+30.3% YTD vs $SPY +17.5%) Long Term Core Holdings (82%) $TMDX 14.4% $AMZN 8.9% $EVO 8.1% $AEP.V 6% $CLPT 5.9% $FOUR 5.7% $CPNG 5.4% $DESP 5.2% $MELI 4.6% $CREX 4.2% $GENK 4.1% $NU 4% $ASPN 2.5% $MXCT 1.9% $DUR.AX 1.6% Cyclical Holds (22%) $PUBM 4.3%

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

2 years

Con of owning illiquid micro cap: don't participate in bull rally Pro of owning illiquid micro cap: don't participate in bear rally

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

1 year

Now that the SPAC bubble deflated, there has got to be winners amongst the ruins. Companies went public and raised capital at peak prices - a smart move. What SPAC do you think has the brightest future? I'll start: $SLGC $NAUT in proteomics. Trade below cash. No position (yet)

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

5 days

Grateful for all the friends I've made on here, positive interactions I've had, great ideas we've shared. Some folks who make fintwit great @epictrades1 @ZaStocks @SixSigmaCapital @pennycheck @SteveUrkelDude @kiantrades @ConnorJBates_ @eliant_capital @JonETrades @StockSavvyShay

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

1 year

Reminder that $COIN is a predatory platform. Retail investors made up 14% of the trading volume but paid 94% of the fees.

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

4 months

I am irresponsibly long $COIN going into the print Win or lose, I'm transparent If it doesn't go my way, fortunately my ytd performance can absorb it But when I see a fat pitch, I swing

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

1 year

$TGT at 16x earnings, 13X next year earnings 15x TTM operational cash flow. And OCF was ~half what it was pre-pandemic. Usually great FCF conversion. Pays a dividend. Idk, seems like a good LEAPS situation. What am I missing? Thieving? We know sentiment is low. That's the point.

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

6 months

Win or lose I'm fully transparent. I averaged up $TMDX today and increased my share count by +43% Big bet. Earnings in t-5 mins Wish me luck

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

8 months

It hurts my soul when I see someone pay with a debit card instead of a credit card

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

3 months

If you're bearish, take a second to let go of that bias. Consider the following: •S&P just made new highs •CPI & unemployment data is fine •GDP growth is weak, gives the fed oppty to cut rates and stimulate the economy •quality names are trading at historically low valuation

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

2 years

@burrytracker He tweeted that after the snapshot of his Q4 holdings which were released today. He coulda been out by 1/31 and still is out today

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

6 months

Put. Some. Respect. On. My. Name. $TMDX

Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

6 months

Win or lose I'm fully transparent. I averaged up $TMDX today and increased my share count by +43% Big bet. Earnings in t-5 mins Wish me luck

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

4 months

When people start calling me names for buying the dip in quality companies down -30% in 1 month on no company specific news and reasonable valuations in a business up cycle, you gotta think we're getting close to a bottom in many names

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

1 year

$15 EPS is absurd. $48 stock. US consumer staple at 64% of tangible book. I'm in. $SENEA

Harris Perlman

@OtterMarket

1 year

I've taken $SENEA up to nearly 30% weight. Biggest allocation I've had to a single stock in the last couple of years.

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

4 months

Proper home cooked meal Snake River farms American wagyu ribeye

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

1 year

If I make your day a little better via my posts on twitter, appreciate you letting me know Lately many things feel negative and I sometimes think 'why bother' Got enough stress in life to let the bird app be another [parasitic] stressor

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

3 months

$NU trades at 18x 2025 EPS😳😳 For that growth. And the runway.

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

1 year

Suggesting Congress needs to get involved implies the SEC is not playing ball. He is still fighting for new laws to be written. Gensler made it clear current securities laws are broad enough to encompass crypto. New laws aren't necessary for each new technology. He is in denial.

Brian Armstrong

@brian_armstrong

1 year

Met with the SEC today. We’ll continue pushing for a clear rule book in the U.S. for crypto regs. The U.S. can’t afford to fall behind on this important technology to update the financial system. Also important for regulators to set policy and THEN enforce it. Not start with

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

1 year

Never seen this before - in disbelief. So if I got this right, the new CFO joined the company owning puts on the company. He sold them to rejoin and used the $ to buy shares of the company he was short. Why not sell before rejoining to avoid the filing? What a mess. $HELE

Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

1 year

$HELE CFO $500K insider buy today

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

10 days

What more can a man ask for on his birthday His largest position $ASPN and his latest gamble $RKLB on an overall red day🥳

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

30 days

Everyone's calling for a 2000 style crash meanwhile we had $meta one of the greatest companies on earth down 70% in 2022 and $amzn down 55% You bozos missed the bottom😂

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

6 months

Clearly I focus on stocks a lot in my life. Big time passion. And if it wasn't for Twitter I'd be annoying the crap out of my friends, so I appreciate y'all for following along and engaging Twitter's a good outlet and a good way to build a community/relationships.

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

1 year

Put some respect on my name. $COIN

Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

1 year

Think we get the $COIN lawsuit as soon as 1-7 days And I'm gonna regret not shorting more today. Cest la vie

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

1 year

$CAVA +100% on IPO day lol - after they already upped the IPO price just before the listing. Major 2021 vibes. Million dollar question: when does the music stop?

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

4 months

Many individual small caps had strong earnings yet no bid, likely due to prevailing negative sentiment Here are my picks that I believe will be higher 12mo from now Adtech $PUBM $MGNI Financials $LC Homebuilder $AEP.V Digital Signage $CREX LatAm $DESP Staple $APR.WA Biotech $CLPT

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Logical Thesis

@LogicalThesis

1 year

When a notable micro cap investor pitches a stock and says he made it 30% of his portfolio, you listen to the pitch. If the pitch makes sense, you go long. It's that simple Is the issue it was posted on fintwit instead of VIC or MCC? We should be grateful for his input $SENEA 1/

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