Investor who loves his Lord, wife, daughters, son and his calling. Much like Buffett, I tap dance to work. Host of A Book With Legs Podcast on Apple and Spotify
Timeless history points to human tendencies and the unknown future's possible paths. Martin was a treasure to discuss Herod's rise during the rise of Octavian and demise of Cleopatra and Antony. Herod's legacy was for generations. His Jewishness is part of the gem of the story.
The latest episode of A Book With Legs is here!
Distinguished historian Martin Goodman joins Bill and
@Cole_Smead
to discuss his latest work, "Herod the Great," in which he documents the Jewish king's ability to generate wealth through various means amid the Roman revolution.
Why do we believe we are in a post-US shale "hyper growth" world?
#1
investors don't want it
#2
geology will no longer allow it
#3
executives are no longer rewarded for it. Now there is a call on "long cycle" production to those still unwilling or unable to answer it.
“Let’s go be who we are, and let’s go make a pile of money.”
@Cole_Smead
joined
@BNNBloomberg
today to talk about Cenovus and the Canadian oil space. Watch the full interview here.
Hey all. Just getting up to speed that indexes own very low amounts of energy stocks (~4%) and that oil prices are moving towards $100. That sounds like the environment needed for a squeeze. 🤷🏼♂️
#COM
#oil
#oilandgas
Momentum crowd and Hedgies just performed an exit stage left in the energy stocks. I love the space because commodity volatility scares investors away. However, that price volatility is what will make it so profitable through this cycle. Intestinal fortitude is required
@smeadcap
Some great questions! So much more enjoyable to answer those questions than some of the dumb ones you get asked in the investment business. Thank you all!
Look who's on Marketcall today! That's
@Cole_Smead
What a smile!
He's a big fan of 🇨🇦 Energy. $cve $meg
I'll be making notes on what will be a very interesting show indeed.
Keep the calls short people. I want to hear what Cole has to say. Oh ya!
Expecting WTI-WCS spread to tighten into year end as the WTI-Brent spread does too. SPR releases will turn to SPR purchases post elections.
$MEG is likely to hit net debts targets earlier, in our opinion. Killer quarter for
@MEGEnergyCorp
. Bravo to Derek Evans.
@SmeadCap
#COM
Friend Jason Cummins makes three great points
1. Fed put is gone
2. China can no longer be an uneconomic actor
3. New world order is moving to a more problematic future. Wars cost money/ cause inflation (
@nfergus
)
Awesome stuff from
@TheStalwart
and
@tracyalloway
as usual.
NEW ODD LOTS:
Brevan's top economist sees recession coming this year.
@tracyalloway
and I talked macro with Jason Cummins.
He said the Fed is "playing with fire" while the labor market weakens, holding policy at a level that will tip us into recession.
"July high frequency data is showing declines in inventory of over 2MM Bbl/d, that's with SPR [releases]. Imagine when the SPR stops at the end of October. I think that is the thing that the market is completely missing right now."
Oh captain. My captain.
Just so y’all know, the forests in America have never been bigger. We reforested the US from 30% depletion 100 years ago.
Europe and China can’t say this.
#COM
#coal
#oil
#EFT
@DSteinmoeller
@timber001
@nyetjgoldblum
Agree. Let’s be thankful for this. We want to get wealthy slowly. If the market figures this out quickly, we have to try to be right again. That is tough. Friends, oilmen, lend me your ear. Let this company give us what it’s asset have. We can sit on our ass.
#mungerism
#oott
If you can’t enjoy taking a pounding in stocks, you’ll hate being an investor in stock markets.
People always ask me what prepared me for what I do? Playing on a losing baseball team for most of college. Most people hate losing. The stock market gives you the ability to take
One other
#COM
thought, now would be a great time for consolidation as confidence has tapered largely among investors and executive teams, but prices on WTI/WCS/BRENT haven’t.
Call your banker, call your lawyer…it’s hunting season.
@ValueAddCapital
I’m not a fan of people going big on first rings. It sets a bad precedence for what the engagement is…something to show others. Also, what is your encore for the 10 year anniversary? This person sounds like a 2 for 1 stock split that you receive no new shares on. 🤯
Big thank you to
@CNBC
’s
@KellyCNBC
for having me on. Also, thank you to Ridgeline for hosting the
@SmeadCap
team this week at Base Camp.
Fear stock market failure and go hug some energy stocks!
#COM
#OOTT
The look I give when I found out people don’t own energy stocks, that online will destroy class A malls or that European banks will never make money. .
#COM
#OTT
#malls
#banks
In a bad era for
#stocks
. Now is the period that you fall 40% in value from your peak and you still aren’t attractively priced. We are going to see a lot of 70%+ price declines in former “perceived”winners. Numbers are coming down quickly.
@pickeringenergy
I have trouble understanding the hope in the $SPX while gravity is changing the weight of measurement (
#interestrates
) all the while these oil companies just gush cash profusely.
#energy
stocks peaked at 30% in 1980 and 16% in 2008 as a percentage of the S&P 500. 4.56% now!
#OOTT
"Mr. Market knows that low ROE produces low multiples and high ROE produces high multiples. He’s just very manic when he is jaded."
Check out the latest missive from
@Cole_Smead
titled, "Energy Investors are Jaded":
It also reminds me of how most investor look like when they have to sit on Canadian E&Ps dealing with the day to day noise. Two steps forward, two steps back. Worrying about when TMX will finish is a fools errand. I recommend a better hobby like reading or golf.
#COM
"The torque right now in the market looks really attractive."
@Cole_Smead
joined
@BNNBloomberg
to discuss Canadian
#lumber
producers and why he believes Canadian
#oil
and gas
#stocks
are in a position of strength.
Watching BRK meeting on
@CNBC
. First take, energy is very attractive to Warren and Charlie. They think the euphoria today is typified by the investors, who know nothing, gambling with the help of the brokers, that know even less.
#fearstockmarketfailure
#oil
#com
@SmeadCap
I love
#capitalism
! We are currently taking one
#billionaire
after another off the list. Low interest rates cause people to believe the strangest things. Mal-investment always happen at those junctures. May God bless
#America
and may God bless the whole world.
God blessed them and said to them, “Be fruitful and increase in number; fill the earth and subdue it” - Gen 1:28
Just a reminder to the
#COM
for why the
#energy
business is great. It causes
#human
flourishing. Don’t get it twisted!
Everything I’m seeing makes me want to be long as much Canadian WCS as possible. Long life reserves, low declines, 20%-30% free cashflow yields, 75%-100% ROC, Pathways = ESG box checked, TMX line fill Q4 = excess takeaway, US shale faltering, and a multi-year bull market for oil.
One nice thing about twitter is connecting with awesome ppl like
@Cole_Smead
…while looking extremely sharp he did an excellent interview on
@BNNBloomberg
on 🍁 Energy. Give him a follow.
#COM
🫡🪒
This is called collusion and anti- competitive. Whether it’s considered illegal, it’s unethical and unAmerican. If
#oil
and
#gas
companies did this, the current administration would form a lynch mob. $AAPL $GOOG
Discipline among the
#energy
producers is what everyone said would never happen. Thank you to the entire
#ESG
crowd and investors that lost money in the 2010’s. These groups scare investors, but produced discipline in the industry. Only money makers are drilled today!
@SmeadCap
Everyone is wondering what is going on in
#oil
. Simple, it’s fluctuating. Where is it going? Are the people that think they’ll buy at $70 the ones to be scared of when they said we wouldn’t need
#oil
in the future, like coal?
#Coal
is having a renaissance.
#bullmarket
#COM
#OOTT
Hello!!! Warren make me feel like I’m
#Munger
. $OXY Remember, when he made his preferred investment, he called it a price bet on
#oil
. He was right. $SPX and the
#investment
community was wrong.
@SmeadCap
#oott
#com
From 100 to 1 in the Stock Market comes the wisdom of George F Baker:
To make money in stocks you must have the "the vision to see them, the courage to buy them and the patience to hold them". And Patience is the rarest of the three.
Who will be patient in oil?
#oott
#com
#oil
@RazorOil
Never forget, dogs chase cars and people chase
#stocks
. Humans hate
#volatility
.
To make money in stocks you must have “the vision to see them, the courage to buy them and the patience to hold them.” Patience is the rarest of the three. – Thomas Phelps
I think that’s right.
Carbon Capture: Moonshots, Hubs & Hollub; Oxy $85/share target
Best play on carbon sequestration: $OXY, skeptical Denbury, Whitecap, ExxonMobil $DEN $WCP.TO $XOM
Vicki on Bloomberg TV tomorrow - can discuss this:
via
@crudegusher
@leadlagreport
Don’t disagree that this is an interesting drawdown in the 20 year bond. By the end of the 1970’s, no one would touch bonds or stocks. Brokerage firms were running advertisements to help you do you tax losses on bonds. Not there yet. That was durational pain. This is magnitudal
@SmeadCap
’s Bill Smead is in Omaha. Will share thoughts throughout the day. Muchos gracias to
@CNBC
’s
@BeckyQuick
and
@michaelsantoli
for making this so comfortable. I want to honor Charlie Munger’s legacy as this isn’t likely to be the same as it once was.
Thought I’d check to see what was going on in Asia and look who I happened to catch. Agree with you
@Josh_Young_1
that the government may temporarily drop taxes to deal with pump prices.
#COM
#oil
#energy
Perspective: the S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index is up 8.9% YTD while the TSX Index is up only 1.4%. If you were overweight energy this year, you've already won, and I believe that trend will continue.
Glad US banks didn’t fully step away from
#oilandgas
lending like
#EU
banks did, though some tried. Talked to a bank recently. They bragged that they had greatly reduced exposure in
#oilandgas
. Knew these were foolish people. That’s where you have wanted to increase.
@business
Big thoughts on $BRK meeting.
1. Munger was moral leader
2. In the 9 box strike zone, the only place Berkshire can swing is the middle. No ability in hit low and in.
3. Buffett doesn’t expect to be there for long. Succession was almost every answer
*BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY ADDS TO OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM STAKE
Ever get the sense that something is going on right under your nose and no one cares? Welcome to the
@WeAreOxy
shareholder meeting. Billionaires are attempting to swallowing stock in E&Ps. Markets don’t get it.
#oott
#Oil
@Josh_Young_1
@canadawriter
I also think the longer duration of assets in Canada like the sands should attract investors that understand the squeeze will require more oil for years. Oil companies and investors should be increasing the duration of their projects. The consolidation will force that too.
Good interview by Josh. I would this that his comments hint at. With a booming US stock market, Canada has looked like the red-headed step-child. No big institutional investor pitches CA as their big theme. Market caps are smaller, value is better on comparables. Big alpha!
#COM
You can tell when a journalist has their opinion on their sleeve. This reads as annoyed and biased. Ultimately, their their world view is wrong and I appreciate them so much. One less person I have to compete with to make money. ✅
#COM
#OOTT
So basically 2% buyback tax in 2024 incentivizes Canadian energy names to buy the shit out of their stock in 2023 and then pay shit tons of divvy in 2024 and onwards.
That was the plan in the 1st place for us, the Canadian government is just helping to accelerate it.
#com
#oott
Be ready for
#FederalReserve
disappointment for stock investors. The economy still hasn’t been stopped.
#oil
#COM
#banks
Smead Capital Management CEO calls demands for lower rates 'foolish'
we cannot simply walk from the critical determinant of our fortunes in a few decades, never mind years.” - excerpt from
@VaclavSmil
’s How the World Really Works
Love this book.
#OOTT
#OIL
#COM
@SmeadCap
@ValueNotDeadYet
Investor told me they just need their multiples to go up. Oil-splained to him that is wrong. We just need to have them continue to build cash and allocate the capital correctly (🙏🏻 buybacks). We could wake up on lower multiples and still become wealthy. That’s how good this is!
#Buffett
and
#Munger
are reminiscing about their experience in the 70’s with $BRK. $SPX and $BRK got crushed by
#oil
1970-1974. $BRK matched the outperformance of
#oil
1975-1979. Moral of the story is don’t work that hard when you have
#inflation
. Buy
#oil
stocks.
#oott
@SmeadCap
Buffett/Berkshire takes down another 900k shares of $OXY, May 10/12. Tbh we thought he would if the stock keeps hovering below his strike price on his warrants. A few more steps and he could be close to controlling it.
#oil
#OOTT
#EFT
$OXY
Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla is asked how he felt about the royal family attending a game.
Coach: “Jesus, Mary, and Joseph?”
Reporter: “The Prince and Princess of Wales.”
Coach: “No, I only know one royal family. I don’t know too much about that one.”
As
@Cole_Smead
said on BNN. European majors will be selling assets & about buying production.
Well this morning, $su has announced it has bought Total's Canadian assets around > $5 billion.
My comment :
Great for NA o&g companies, not for the ones leaving.
#com
#oott
Yeah. I’m sure they have no vendors, customers or partners that they would host at that. On top of that as a business expense, 21% of it is being funded by Uncle Sam.
Unimaginable…🤓
Almost as grotesque as the Calgary Stampede 🤠
#COM
#oil
#oilandgas
Hey Dad, where are we in the economic cycle ?
Well son, this is the part of the cycle where we are making so much money that Dan Ives is dressed like a pills dealer in Ibiza.
Embarrassing
"While investors aren’t clamoring for oil stocks yet, they’ll have to buy them in the end. Conflict will sharpen their interest in the space.”
Read what
@Cole_Smead
had to say about energy stocks as tension continues to rise in the Middle East.
@business
Shale billionaire Harold Hamm’s latest offer to take Continental Resources private is still too low, according to Smead Capital, the oil explorer’s largest minority investor
#Canadian
#lumber
business was being left for dead until now. Deal premium likely needs to be at least 50%.
#Housing
is not going into a depression. The boo birds have it wrong. $WFG
@SmeadCap
@Eric_Carlson_1
@Josh_Young_1
I’m always shocked to find managers who themselves hire other managers for their personal wealth. What’s the point of that? All I own is what I invest. I can’t see it any other way. Eat your own cooking unless the food is terrible.
“We think housing has been probably the most misunderstood part of the economy looking back over the past 10 years,” Smead Capital Management CEO
@Cole_Smead
says. "No one thought we'd be where we're at on housing."
Proud of what
@cenovus
has done. Hats off to Alex. Mr. McKenzie: let’s go play Pac-Man in our shares and the rest of the companies that you like on the board to win the game!
#oott
#com
#oil
$CVE.TO
"What Alex has done the last two years is nothing short of fantastic and applaudable."
@Cole_Smead
joined
@BNNBloomberg
this morning to discuss the
#energy
sector and his reaction to Alex Pourbaix stepping down as CEO of Cenovus Energy.
$AAPL is the lynchpin of $SPX. It going down causes the index to slump, due to size. At the end of bear markets, no one is hopeful. Pivot crowd has to have their souls crushed before we clean up the equity markets. At the bottom, people need to hate stocks. They hate bonds more.
I’ve never spent time on these people. You know who they are when you hear it though. The optimists always win the game. No one became a billionaire telling everyone how bad it will be.
#stocks