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@stw_pdg

OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

3 years

Goldman: Since our call for commodities super cycle in Oct '20, S&P GSCI +125%. Rally has occurred w/out invstr particip. & no funding incr => creating a lg capital deficit that's deepening...our conviction in a multi-year super cycle has risen substantially #OOTT #oil #EFT #COM

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

2 years

Goldman. Post-OPEC+ meeting of 2M bpd cut. "For now, we raise our 4Q22-1Q22 forecasts conservatively by $10/bbl, to $110/$115 respectively, but acknowledge price risks are skewed potentially even higher." #COM #EFT #OOTT #Oil

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

6 years

It’s been three years since I started the fund, and I wanted to share a few thoughts on what I’ve learned along the way . . . thanks to @ArtkoCpaital for inspiring this! (Tweetstorm below)

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

2 years

Goldman report. Stress testing macro situation, "our conclusion is that under our adverse scenario, Brent’s fair value...~$120-110/bbl in 2H22-2023....Even our worst-case scenario would still imply a Brent fair value of $105-90/bbl...we reiterate our bullish oil price. #oil #OOTT

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

2 years

Goldman updates oil again, incr. YE to $130. Demand exceeds expect. & supply low = irrational expectations & unsustain. px. Uncertainties (CN lockdown, recession) led to record low positioning + RU crisis leading to high retail px...all not solving supply issue. #oil #OOTT #EFT

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

2 years

Goldman out pounding #oil table again Clint Eastwood style. The good, bad, and ugly. The ugly? Higher retail prices have not curbed demand enough. Demand destruction has yet to arrive, higher prices are still coming. #oil #OOTT #EFT #COM

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

3 years

Berkshire just bought 11% of $OXY. Maybe the long oil bulls aren’t entirely crazy. Wow 😮 🤯🚀 #oil #OOTT #EFT

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

3 years

Goldman on today's selloff. "The market has now priced in a mammoth c.7 mb/d negative demand hit over the next three months, with no offsetting OPEC+ response." = not a single plane flying for 3 months or worse off than before vaccines...gamma does what gamma wants. #oil #OOTT

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

2 years

Goldman on recent commodity rout: "Commodities r disassociated from micro fundamentals...latest comm. sell-off de-linked from phys. fundamentals & driven by financial liquidation. Inventories...continue to fall from already uncomfortably low lvls... #oil #OOTT #EFT

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

1 year

China oil demand . . . Goldman #China #OOTT #oil #EFT #COM

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

3 years

Goldman: demand destrux'n is sole oil rebalancing mechanism in a world devoid of inventory buffers & supply elasticity. ...2Q22 Brent frcst is now $120/bbl, w/2H22-frcst at $135 as recovery in Chinese demand requires higher px induced demand destrux'n. '23=$110 #oil #OOTT #EFT

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

2 years

Goldman on oil: higher imports signal begin of China reopening. Base case incr. Brent target of $110 '23 by +$6/bbl (no significant int'l flight reopen). Full int'l reopen +$15/bbl. Mrkt has incr odds of '23 reopening to 25% (we'll take the OVER on that). #OOTT #COM #EFT #oil

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

3 years

Don’t let oil prices fool you. Sell-off largely financially driven as margin req’ts ratchet higher. Once financial players right size we’re going back up. Fundamentals tight. Market short of liquids here. #oil #OOTT #EFT

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

3 years

Goldman "We view the move as excessive, esp as oil market remains in large deficit, & reiterate our $85/bbl 4Q21 avg frcst. High-freq inventory data pts to a current S/D imbalance of c.2 mb/d over last 4 weeks" OECD crude/AB prod inv 7 yr lows, but yeah...keep selling. #oil #OOTT

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

1 year

Goldman on Permian: Increasingly tapped out. Consolidation, producer discipline, and drag of legacy wells = US production less elastic to increasing prices. OPEC+ leverage increases. #oil

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

2 years

Latest Goldman report. Continues to be bullish as China reopens, SPR releases dwindle and Russian "stuffing the channel" calms. #oil #COM #EFT #OOTT

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

11 months

Goldman looking for a rangebound Brent of $80-100/barrel for 2024. OPEC put, US supply growth slowing, and robust global demand. Stress testing that range as well. Note published today . . . just as Brent prices get clipped.

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

2 years

Beast mode. $MEG Energy ($6B mrkt cap (CAD)) will be nearly debt free in a yr. It generates $2B of FCF at today's oil prices. By Q2 '23, it'll have $600M net debt & paying out 100% of FCF (ie, 33% div/buyback on $6B mrkt cap)? No way...stock's definitely going higher. #oil $MEG

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

2 years

Goldman's latest oil comment. 3 items driving selling: 1. RU produx'n surprising to upside, 2. NG collapse + oil to gas switching, and 3. macro-investors w/disinflation theme. See downside risk to avg '23 Brent forecast of $97.50/bbl. #COM #EFT #OOTT #oil

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

2 years

Another Goldman oil report today. Looking at OPEC+'s efficacy in being pro-active and analyzing its pricing power. Suffice it to say the "OPEC put"? Yeah it's real. #COM #oil #OOTT #EFT

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

3 years

Goldman again today reiterating oil mrkt tightness, "If oil mrkt is forced into balancing itself by '22-a yr sooner than our base case of $105/bbl-our modeling suggests oil price will have to hit $125/bbl to balance almost entirely through demand destruction." #Oil #OOTT #EFT

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

1 year

Goldman - oil to likely be rangebound between $80 and $105/barrel next year. OPEC put offset by higher spare capacity, more offshore projects, and no desire for OPEC to push prices to extreme.

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

3 years

Morgan Stanley: Intrinsically, we estimate sector is pricing in ~$62/bbl WTI, well below the 12-month forward strip ($80/bbl), creating rm 4 a further catch up trade vs the commodity, even absent higher prices. ...$62/WTI...$62...$6...2. Hare meet tortoise. #oil #OOTT #EFT

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

2 years

What Not to Say at Polite Dinner Parties. Oil at $150. @HFI_Research and @OpenSquareCap #Oil #EFT #OOTT #COM

What Not to Say at Polite Dinner Parties.

June 4, 2022

www.openinsightscap.com

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

1 year

Goldman (Currie) out with "The Great De-Stocking" piece, on physical de-stocking, which has swung prices for commodities lower, despite signs of robust demand. Prices skewed to upside. Here's oil piece. Rock beats paper. #COM #OOTT #EFT #oil

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

3 years

Goldman on today's Red Friday sale . . . OPEC+ likely to pause production increases for a month. #oil #OOTT

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

2 years

Goldman out with Commodity Insights report. Commodities pricing in a 5.6% decline in global industrial activities (half a GFC '08). Watch for commodity constrained recession as high comm px squeezes global GDP=demand destruction. #oil #OOTT #EFT #COM

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

2 years

Our view on oil stocks today? The very thing our companies are selling (oil) just got more expensive, but the very thing they're buying back (bonds/stocks) just got cheaper. Yeah, we'll sit tight. THIS ISN'T 2018. #oil #OOTT #EFT

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

2 years

Berkshire/Buffett buys another ~9M shares of $OXY from skittish investors. Thanks Mr. Market, stay emotional. Sincerely, Warren #oil #OOTT #EFT

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

1 year

Morgan Stanley - similar to Goldman, sees oil prices rangebound in 2024. Tighter band at $85-95/bbl. Saudis to continue supply cuts until H2 2024. Crude inventories at multi-year low.

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

3 years

RBC w/"Welcome to the Super Cycle" call today as well. Read thru all the analysts, Energy Aspects, BAML, GS, Morgan, etc. This is a structural bull market further spurred by geopolitics. Even if geo fades, we're left short. Iranian bbls=short term reprieve. #oil #OOTT #EFT

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

2 years

Wow Buffett just bought another ~10M shares of OXY at $59-60, increasing the price from his previous $55-ish range. Warren getting “real real” now on energy. #oil #OOTT #EFT

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

1 year

Goldman (Jeff Currie) updating oil call, $93/bbl in 2024 Q2 (Brent). Global demand has risen to an all-time high in July of 102.8M bpd. The views support EIA's demand revision for May as well. #OOTT #EFT #com #oil

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

1 year

Goldman latest, oil price declined b/c lack of RU prodx'n cut, SPR release, & higher supplies from VZ/IR. Now pricing in poor CN demand, no-RU cut at all, & OECD recession, but not factoring in OPEC cuts. Too pessimistic Still anticipates higher px into YE. #oil #OOTT #EFT #COM

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

2 years

The Energy Shortage is About to Get Bad . . . Shamone. Russia's production fall, incoming. @HFI_Research and @OpenSquareCap #oil #OOTT #EFT #COM #Commodities

The Energy Shortage is About to Get Bad . . . Shamone.

April 24, 2022

www.openinsightscap.com

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

11 months

Oil prices dying by death of a thousand cuts. Goldman's latest Oil tracker also supports the view that the "cuts haven't been cuts of late" as oil supply increases collides with lower oil demand (refinery turnaround season).

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

2 years

Berkshire just bought another 5.9m shares $OXY in past few days. Got oil? #oil #OOTT #EFT

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

3 years

$80 Oil . . . Here We Come Open Insights is a collaboration between @HFI_Research and @OpenSquareCap

$80 Oil . . . Here We Come

May 28, 2021

www.openinsightscap.com

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

2 years

Goldman, oil: Frcst Brent px need 2 avg $135 in 2H22-1H23 2 normalize invent. Summer retail px need $160/bbl avg 2 get +0.5 mbd demand destruct 2 balance mrkt next yr PLUS 1) global GDP growth exc. CN slow 2 2% yoy, 2) SA/UAE/Iraq record output & 3) IR/VZ/Libya produx'n +1.3 mbd

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

3 years

We are sooooooo in trouble . . . oil. This is largely before any Russian impacts. #oil #OOTT #EFT #COM

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

2 years

Excerpts from Goldman's latest report on oil. Lowering Q4 2022 price target to $100/bbl from $110/bbl, largely from uncertainty surrounding China. Fundamentals look fine. #oil #COM #EFT #OOTT

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

2 years

Goldman out pounding table for oil as OPEC+ plans to cut in historically tight mrkt. Inven. looser recent months, but adj for redirection of RU bbls, deficit following '17-'19 seasonal patterns, tho CN drawing unsustainably. Supply increasingly ineastic. #COM #EFT #OOTT #oil

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

1 year

We’re getting closer to the Frack Around and Find Out stage of the draws . . . API Crude -11.486MM Gasoline +1.4MM Distillates +2.46MM Cushing -2.23MM

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

1 year

Goldman. Inventories fell by 23M barrels last week in OECD. 35M in past 4 weeks. #OOTT #oil

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

2 years

China's Oil Demand? It's Gonna Bounce Like a Bunny China's zero-COVID policy will likely end soon, and oil demand will rebound by YE. We explain why. @HFI_Research and @OpenSquareCap #oil #OOTT #EFT #COM

China's Oil Demand? It's Gonna Bounce Like a Bunny

September 9, 2022

www.openinsightscap.com

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

2 years

Goldman on China reopening. "w/tight commodity mrkts going into winter & a cont'd high risk of RU disruption in crude, new risk of an earlier or stronger reopening in CN is shifting investors’ behavior from selling rallies to buying dips & covering shorts." #oil #OOTT #EFT #COM

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

3 years

1/X OPEC+ postponing meeting a few thoughts. Remember Saudi's didn't want to increase produx'n in the first place. It was Russia who's been eager (domestic reasons and inflation). Saudi's want to have short sellers "ouching like hell" & bring specs "to their knees"... #oil #OOTT

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

1 year

Latest Chinese oil demand figures (Goldman). #OOTT #COM #EFT #oil

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

3 years

Oil . . . US inventories vs. everyone else (onshore). US is the last barrel, it's the furthest to source from & it sure seems like we're pulling hard on US inventories, but nah . . . nothing to see here. We'll be fine, because global energy policies have 🌠🪄🦄🧚🙏 #oil #OOTT

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

3 years

Oil's Selloff Says One Thing; Inventory Balances Say Something Else Open Insights is a collaboration between @HFI_Research and @OpenSquareCap

Oil's Selloff Says One Thing; Inventory Balances Say Something Else

August 22, 2021

www.openinsightscap.com

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

3 years

So uh . . . this is happening. +20% capex, little to no production growth . . . US shale. Well except for you Matador, olé. #oil #EFT #OOTT

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

3 years

Don't you just love a great . . . Currie? Goldman: ESG investing is lengthening period of underinvestment...to incentivize an addit'l investment in supply, hydrocarbon px now have to rise to higher levels than would otherwise (ie ESG makes supply more inelastic) #oil #EFT #OOTT

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

4 years

$SU just issued two 30 year bonds at rates ranging from 3.75% to 3.95% rates . . . matures in 2051 . . . at least someone actually thinks we'll still need oil & gas past 2030. #oil #OOTT

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

3 years

OPEC+ really starting to lag on production now. Underproducing their self-given quota by ~1M bpd. We can see some producers failing to keep up. Even Russia has weakened (and that was before the UKR invasion). Spare capacity issue growing by the month. #oil #OOTT #EFT

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

1 year

Goldman's Oil Tracker this week . . . odd. #OOTT

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

3 years

Oil stocks are overvalued. Morgan and BofA? . . . uh yeah, no. #oil #OOTT #EFT

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

2 years

The Selloff's for the Birds Oil's recent volatility has little to do with fundamentals. Our thoughts. @HFI_Research and @OpenSquareCap #Oil #EFT #OOTT #COM

The Selloff's for the Birds

July 16, 2022

www.openinsightscap.com

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

1 year

Buffett takes down another 3.4M shares of $OXY. Nearly 5M shades now in 7 days. If your manic depressive neighbor’s selling it, he’ll take it. $OXY #oil #EFT #OOTT #COM

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

2 years

Goldman's latest report, lowering Brent Q1/Q2 for 2023 to $90/95, respectively from $110. Structural undersupply still present as underinvestment takes its toll. #COM #OOTT #EFT #oil

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

3 years

Goldman on global oil demand...97m bpd...today....put your seat in the upright position and stow your tray tables...🚀🚀🚀 #oil #OOTT

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

3 years

Sure, oil ripping b/c financial/paper market repositioning as investors look for commodity hedges. Physical side? Preliminary (missing Japan), but 1st wk of January we typically build by 2-3M bpd globally. This year? We're drawing 1.5M. Total liquids, OECD. #oil #OOTT #EFT

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

1 year

Goldman's take on upcoming OPEC+ meeting. Voluntary to involuntary cut, but no further cuts. #oil #OOTT #COM #EFT

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

1 year

Goldman's latest report. The draws have started, non-OECD has drawn by 50M barrels MTD. Partially explains why they didn't publish Kpler inventory slides as they revamped their oil Nowcast models. Now that J. Currie retired, looks like a revamp of the process. #oott #oil

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

1 year

Goldman chiming in as well. 6% Brent decline yesterday, 11% in past week: 1. gas demand impacted by Ophelia storm, 2. macro uncertainty and recession fears, 3. technical factors, positioning.

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

1 year

JP Morgan's Supercycle call, same idea as Goldman/Morgan's. Falling inv.=OPEC leverage, then falling OPEC spare cap.=higher px. "$80, $100 or even $120 nominal oil px in coming years appear manageable in real terms, as they equate to oil's share of the world economy below 4%."

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

3 years

Goldman latest on OPEC/SPR . . . unfazed by the OECD vs. OPEC+ battle royale . . . structural shortage remains despite the noisy short-term issues. #oil #OOTT

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

3 years

Currently seeing a 1.8M bpd draw for OECD inventories in our tracker. Satellites are also showing about the same. What's more interesting is the draws have been increasing, so that avg. is skewing up. Still winter 😳 #oil #EFT #OOTT

HFI Research

@HFI_Research

3 years

Oh buddy... 🙈

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

3 years

180M SPR release. Let me see...SPR...S..P..R, ah here it is. What's 2 come will surprise evn most hardened oil invstrs. Lines, hoarding, soc. instablty, pol. turmoil, anger. Nothing breeds violence like scarcity. Nothing. This isn't hyperbole, it will be our reality. #oil

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

1 year

Fintwit: consumers are in trouble, this economy is crashing. Personal savings . . . notching another month of increase. #economy #oil #OOTT #COM #EFT

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

2 years

Goldman: Revenge of the Old, scarcity of fossil fuels means more emissions vs. less as users migrate down chain (i.e., NG to coal). Oil drawing seasonally higher, $115/bbl Q1 '23 & E&Ps undervalued, but need more proof of cash flow sustainability to rerate. #OOTT #oil #COM #EFT

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

3 years

Goldman's latest forecast...higher prices needed to rebuild inventories. Producers will unwind hedges as consumers buy forward, rebalancing the market as long-dated prices increase (incentivizing produx'n). Guess what else increases as they do? E&P stocks. #oil #OOTT #EFT

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

3 years

US production will continue to wallow at this pace. DUCs near lows since EIA has been tracking them. OPEC+ spare capacity . . . you're our only hope. #oil #OOTT

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

3 years

Stunned. Could that be? E&P discipline holding? Production staying low? We're getting off the treadmill! . . . like a herd of turtles! (probably tortoises) #oil #OOTT #EFT $DVN $MRO $PXD $CLR

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

3 years

Comment below from JP Morgan's Kolanovic. If you think that price is outlandish, we'll add another pt. We've underinvested a total of ~$2T of capex in O&G for past 7 yrs. If the marginal bbl was $70-80/bbl back then, no way marginal bbl doesn't vault higher as demand recovers.

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

2 years

When do you think this energy cycle will be over? @HFI_Research ". . . when young dudes leave college to go drill wells because the money's too good." We are a loooong ways off apparently: #oil #OOTT #EFT

Bloomberg Energy

@BloombergNRG

2 years

This year, the number of new petroleum-engineering graduates in the US is expected to total about 400 -- an 83% decline from 2017, when they peaked at more than 2,300.

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

2 years

Buffett acquires +3.7M shares of $OXY. He's going to take this out, makes too much sense from a synergistic POV. Helps Lubrizol, BHE, railroad, midstream, etc. CCUS will also be a game changer & help Net Zero-out Berkshire for next gen. #COM #oil #OOTT #netzero #Berkshire $OXY

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

4 years

Few cared in 2017 . . . and no one today. The collapse in supplies is much greater this time, and the trajectory of draws are steeper; this continues and oil prices will vault higher. #oil #OOTT

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

2 years

Just as we anticipated. $OXY continues to drive shareholder value, keep working the plan. #COM #OOTT #EFT #oil $OXY

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

3 years

Preliminary, but as of this week, OECD drawing at a FASTER pace than '21 when global inventories plummeted. We don't know who needs to hear this, but please consider buying commodities to hedge yourself. We are woefully short of EVERYTHING that matters. #oil #OOTT #EFT

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

3 years

Oil ...that's the tweet

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

2 years

Me Look at Oil. Me Like What Me See. Grimlock examines the oil market and breaks it down simply for us. Me like. @HFI_Research and @OpenSquareCap #oil #OOTT #EFT #COM

Me Look at Oil. Me Like What Me See.

September 2, 2022

www.openinsightscap.com

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

3 years

US E&P valuation reflects a median WTI price of $57/bbl . . . 2022 future prices? $73.83. Chart from Morgan Stanley #oil #OOTT

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

2 years

Federal Reserve holding an unscheduled meeting. Note the item to be discussed on October 3 (Monday). Pivot?

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

3 years

🙏 We never wanted oil to rise this way. Heartfelt thoughts to those in danger tonight. #oil #OOTT #EFT

Alexander Stahel 🌻

@BurggrabenH

3 years

War is now official. My prayers go out to the people of Ukraine 🇺🇦 as well as the soldiers that have to sacrifice their lives for a dictator, on both sides. 🙏

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

3 years

Now Comes the Hard Part for Energy Investors Holding. Open Insights is a collaboration between @HFI_Research and @OpenSquareCap

Now Comes the Hard Part for Energy Investors

January 31, 2022

www.openinsightscap.com

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

2 years

So much consternation about China oil demand. Real-time data, CN already >2019 demand & that's w/int'l flights at 14% '19 lvls (up from 8%). Domestic already recovered. Wait for conferences/exhibitions & Labour Day holiday April/May. Next leg-up in demand. #oil #OOTT #EFT #COM

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

3 years

Will now see flip side of the sell off as producers pause increases. OPEC+ could have political cover if oil doesn’t rebound into their meeting. Public E&Ps? Cautious budgets for ‘22. Supply impacts far more certain than demand hit for Nu variant as of today #oil #OOTT

Eric Nuttall

@ericnuttall

3 years

Lakshmi @ Capital One: today's oil price drop is pricing in 4.2MM Bbl/d demand drop = 10x Delta variant's impact in Q3/21 = equivalent to 25% of the global lockdown demand hit in April 2020 for an entire quarter.

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

3 years

Oil mrkt price Battle Royale now. IEA/EIA/OPEC “there’ll be too much oil ‘22” Jedi mindtrix, US asking OPEC+ for more & SPR/export ban/NOPEC jawboning vs. bullish inv. reports, sat data, Q3 reports+producer restraint/financing constraints. Words v data. Who’ll win? #oil #OOTT

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

3 years

Goldman Sachs' side-by-side oil/product inventory chart. Left is the one published a few days ago and right is one from prior month...destocking continues. (Global oil stocks vs. Dec 2019 (mb). #oil #OOTT

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

5 years

Really good Goldman Top Oil Projects report out today. Shale treadmill getting steeper. If you spend capex just to maintain flat volumes, you're going to need higher oil prices to generate those returns. #oil #OOTT

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

3 years

Global oil inventories past wk, down by 18M bbls (yes 18M (crude by 10.4M / prod 7.7M bbls)). Prior wk was -4.3M (4M crude/300K prod). Avg. together=same trend as 4 wks b4 that. So 6 wks. of ~10M liquids draw. Big summer blowout. All b4 Ida. Again ~1/2 OECD #oil #OOTT

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

3 years

Still a long way for energy stocks to g0. XOP should arguably be ~$160 (ie, 50% higher). It will eventually. It's still pricing in around mid-$60 oil, but as evidenced by XOM earnings, cash flow tsunami coming. We're going to drown in an embarrassment of riches. #oil #OOTT #EFT

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

3 years

Goldman Sachs yesterday . . . oil demand surpassed 99M bpd & hit pre-COVID level of 100M bpd as Asia rebounds post Delta. Upside risk to $90/bbl YE Brent target if oil to gas switching persists. #oil #OOTT

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

3 years

1/X Mea culpa time. We've been seeing a 3M bpd deficit in our numbers lately (OECD), but it's hard to believe. Hurr. Ida impacts surely affected numbers, but strip it out & it's still eye popping. Must be data lag & will correct in a few more wks. #oil #OOTT

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

3 years

Omicron or vax, either way you’ll get antibodies & T-cell immunity. Too transmissible not to impact almost everyone. Still this is fading endemic (looks like). Speed of Omicron wildfire will dictate oil recovery, but think it’ll be fast burn/fast demand recovery. #oil #OOTT #EFT

Scott Gottlieb, MD

@ScottGottliebMD

3 years

In South Africa, we’re thankfully seeing a striking decoupling between new Covid cases and ICU admissions and deaths. Whether #Omicron is inherently less virulent, whether this hopeful finding is result of baseline immunity in infected, or a combination of both, is still unclear.

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

2 years

No way this wasn’t planned. It gave G7 “soft cover” to roll back some climate change initiatives and ESG restrictions. Instead of politically leading from the front they’ll let media push from behind as articles about “an energy shortage” appear. #oil #OOTT #EFT

Michael Shellenberger

@shellenberger

2 years

Biden was counting on Arab nations to produce more oil but a few hours ago French President Macron was overheard telling Biden that the United Arab Emirates is at max capacity & the Saudis can’t produce much more. It appears to be a direct appeal to Biden to produce more oil.

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

1 year

OECD inventories continue to decline on a 14 day moving avg of 3M bpd . . . per Goldman. Meanwhile touching upon something @PauloMacro brought up . . . positioning still moribund. No one cares, or if they do, they think it's fleeting. We'll see.

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

3 years

Even as oil flash crashes, floor continues to move higher. Wk b4 RU's attack, WTI/Brent ~$93/$98 per bbl. Globally now drawing ~2M bpd b4 RU sanx'ns r really hitting, same rate as 2021. Make no mistake, we're critically short energy. No UKR issue? Oil=$100 now. #oil #OOTT #EFT

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

2 years

Goldman out w/Scarcity to Hoarding commodity report. Good chart, comm px rallies into comm. induced recession, lows also shallow vs. trad'tl recessn. Comms=econ constraint, px fall stims demand, up we go. Then shortage=down. Up/down. Andurand expressed same thots. #oil #OOTT #EFT

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OpenSquareCapital

@OpenSquareCap

3 years

Live shot of all energy investors #oil #OOTT #EFT

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