Kourosh @kouroshshafi Twitter profile

Last Seen Profiles

@ArtOfDialogue_

@vyletbunni

@perl_necklace

@teyyareci18

@Bill_Advised

@jeonjkbtes

@Sunny_Burl_Daze

@qhy1496569

@MakeStyle_2015

@nilanmorton

@Arsenal_Strngth

@blkhachiko

@ElisaNath90

@Dar_alfath

@HachikoInu1

@moche_bns

@mpoyrazbigg

@ArsenalN7

@glowwallet

@h2ar0per0

@terrasaidit

@kego_1980

@onedimkurt

@cgast

@yoshiaki0409

@InspectorTX

@travel__Sports

@snuowys

@Camrnvilla

@MeteoRoodescho1

@Arsenal

@motrogo

@serve_goddessk1

@hbnn92328152

@icybarbz

@sugaarbullet

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

9 months

"Apple Gets 36% of Google Revenue in Search Deal" Bloomberg

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

9 months

Interesting disclosures from the DoJ trials against Google $GOOG

3

46

14

87

535

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

9 months

Bridgewater app for ranking employee “believability” (from Levine newsletter) ;)

16

44

449

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

1 year

Overview of Adyen's and Stripe's financials

14

57

419

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

6 days

Software acquisitions

6

41

383

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

3 months

Why is Vertical software attractive? /rbc primer

7

38

327

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

5 months

PayPal fees for sending $ to a friend $PYPL is dead to me

116

10

319

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

2 months

$CAT raising capex in a decade!

6

20

301

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

2 months

$LULU social media vs. Vuori

18

28

304

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

8 months

Where retailers like to locate:

5

45

292

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

8 days

Apple in China

9

65

292

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

4 months

Paypal $PYPL - wedgewood 'reload our position in the stock' 'similar enough dynamics that played out at Meta Platforms'

17

29

291

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

5 months

Louis Vuitton and Dior - Price architecture – Women’s Handbags

11

43

261

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

10 days

Constellation Software |jefferies initiation

7

28

259

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

9 months

Airbnb unit economics $ABNB

4

25

251

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

2 months

TEMU user repurchase rate by cohort

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

4 months

/BTiG has an excellent deep dive on temu and SHEIN

4

11

49

14

27

236

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

2 months

Combined CapEx from Amazon, Meta, Google, Microsoft is expected to reach $200B by 2025, and total CapEx between 2024 and 2027 is expected to reach $850B for these companies

1

57

235

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

4 months

impact of Lululemon $LULU 's competitor Alo store after the opening (interesting analysis; new to me)

20

30

223

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

1 year

unbundling all of the Amazon Prime components JPM estimates the package of offerings is worth ~$1,225/year, 8.8x the $139 annual Prime subscription cost $AMZN

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

1 year

Amazon Flywheel $AMZN

0

2

18

13

24

216

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

2 months

value for money and quality scores for Fast Casual and Fast Food concept

5

26

216

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

1 month

Concept of shipping elasticity

1

26

214

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

2 months

Payment facilitator economics

4

28

212

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

9 months

Big 3 Cloud incremental market share (%)

11

25

208

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

1 year

Amazon/DISH deal - best analysis I have read this week $AMZN

7

26

211

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

9 months

Ecommerce market structure in 2022

10

29

207

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

19 days

Wolfe tactical call Long GOOGL/Short META

4

17

204

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

10 months

Rule of 40 - Software

6

30

194

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

3 months

$Meta the analyst just nails the narrative

10

18

189

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

8 months

today's JPM report on Software Monetization of Payments is recommended reading

13

19

181

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

8 months

Walmart distribution model

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

8 months

Amazon $AMZN Distribution Model

0

16

112

2

42

181

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

11 months

Google $GOOGL pitch by Pershing Square Holdings

2

33

180

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

4 months

Cooling vs electrification debate for data center equipment

9

29

180

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

2 months

The bullish case for Visa and Mastercard where they are not rail leaders

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

2 months

FedNow could see potential uses for V and MA’s value- added services (VAS) over time, in areas such as fraud

1

22

3

25

182

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

9 months

$Etsy CEO on Temu

11

14

174

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

4 months

This report is highly recommended if you are looking for a weekend reading for a generalist.

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

4 months

Cooling vs electrification debate for data center equipment

9

29

180

9

12

173

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

2 months

How American Express became Gen Z's favorite credit card Business Insider

Jerry Capital

@JerryCap

2 months

$EBAY "said it will stop accepting $AXP cards as a payment option due to “unacceptably high fees"

7

3

65

2

16

171

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

4 months

Why Software Business Models Are Attractive

4

29

170

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

1 year

Who makes the F-35

5

42

168

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

7 months

all the 2024 investment outlook reports with links to pdfs: Happy holidays!

A comprehensive round-up of all the 2024 investment outlook reports

archived 23 Dec 2023 23:31:09 UTC

archive.ph

4

29

169

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

1 year

Danahar $DHR pitch from Third Point - Second Quarter 2023 Investor Letter

0

34

170

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

7 months

"OpenAI is reportedly raising at a $100 billion valuation—63 times the startup’s forward revenue. Anthropic has told investors it would be generating generating revenue at around a $200M pace by end2023, implying a multiple of 75 times forward revenue for ongoing funding round"

6

10

162

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

3 months

Fast casual Restaurant margins

3

23

162

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

7 months

US pharmacy distribution & reimbursement system

4

24

163

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

3 months

Capex comparison at big tech (For Apple bulls)

8

28

158

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

8 months

Card-based Payments 4-corner model - US

2

28

161

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

1 year

High level comparison between BJ, Costco and Sam's club $COST $WMT

4

18

155

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

7 months

Software Take-Privates: Recent Multiples Show Compression

3

25

150

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

2 months

Almost a fifth of software companies reduce their full-year revenue guidance in the first quarter of 2024; with most companies citing a weaker demand environment, longer sales cycles, and slipped deals.

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

2 months

new logo/expansions in selected software companies

0

3

31

4

18

149

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

3 months

Amazon Prime video ads $AMZN

3

16

147

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

4 months

Top 30 Global Ideas for 2024 /rbc

7

21

146

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

1 year

Netflix vs Spotify price increases

12

142

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

7 months

re-expanding valuation multiples

3

22

145

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

4 months

Who are your favorite analysts? please drop names regardless of the sector. I appreciate it. DM open too.

27

14

146

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

1 month

Temu slowing down /ubs

4

23

147

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

2 years

@aishak3 @omarabdoun @warghetti In Persian this smell is called Zohm زهم

1

7

142

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

3 months

"TSLA FSD free trial conversion reached ~2% for all trials that ended on or before 5/5, representing ~74% of all observed free 30-day trials" $TSLA

54

23

142

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

4 months

Why Google *couldn’t* make GPT-3? answer from David Luan, a former VP Eng of OpenAI (~30th hire at OpenAI) and former LLM tech lead at Google Brain

3

18

140

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

1 year

Sales Growth is the Key Driver of Long Term Stock Performance - BCG Analysis

9

26

141

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

2 months

Increased ad volume in Reels $META

4

16

139

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

10 months

CASH-ON-CASH RETURN for restaurant brands

8

14

136

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

11 months

UBS report on (Shopify impact on) Amazon retail margins is the recommended reading today. $AMZN $SHOP

3

14

134

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

20 days

Average time spent per user in the U.S. TikTok 56 mins per day Instagram 37 mins per day YouTube 46 mins per day

3

22

134

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

4 months

Google $GOOG from

3

12

131

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

2 months

Etsy has a problem

8

13

132

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

1 month

BTIG top picks

1

9

130

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

8 months

Shopify Payments $SHOP from UBS - Shopify Inc - Payments Monetization Deep Dive

3

14

130

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

1 year

Google pitch from Daniel S. Loeb $GOOGL

4

11

126

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

1 year

How many securities large hedge funds hold?

2

17

126

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

2 years

"Other Revenues" line for networks $V and $MA

2

13

123

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

11 months

$SE update starting p. 14

8

19

123

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

8 months

US domestic parcel delivery market share by operator $AMZN

2

17

121

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

9 months

Recommended (100% more informative than Coatue AI fundraising deck): RBC The Software Investor's Handbook to Generative AI

16

2

121

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

2 months

$Meta bulls vs. bears

0

14

121

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

4 months

E-commerce penetration by vertical $amzn

5

25

121

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

2 years

$AMZN At the end of 2021, Amazon had 253 fulfillment centers, 110 sortation centers, 467 delivery stations in the US

5

11

119

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

1 month

Music in a few charts from DB today

4

7

117

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

2 months

Beauty retailers in the U.S.

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

2 months

Amazon’s ambitions on beauty category $AMZN

1

5

46

4

8

118

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

5 days

Jensen Huang (NVDA) + Mark Zuckerberg (Meta) — Quick Notes from SIGGRAPH '24 Today’s Sit-Down Conversation highlights /wf

2

22

117

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

8 months

Azure vs. AWS Revenue

3

23

111

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

7 months

stock-based compensation (SBC) expense as a percentage of revenue

3

14

111

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

8 months

Amazon $AMZN Distribution Model

0

16

112

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

3 months

Cloud Capex expectations $GOOG $AMZN $META $MSFT

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

3 months

Capex comparison at big tech (For Apple bulls)

8

28

158

4

23

111

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

1 year

For reading sell side research, if you are an individual you can open a few accounts under a week and access sell side reports from BofA, MS, JPMorgan (as per my DM):

3

6

110

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

4 months

Reels ad load $Meta

2

14

111

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

1 year

(Lovely) framework for evaluating the potential revenue impact from generative Al on Business and Info Services companies 1/2 $SPGI $FICO $MSCI $CSGP $IT $HRB

3

16

111

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

1 month

Stock based compensation % of revenue trends in software from/citi

2

23

109

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

8 months

E-commerce valuations

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

9 months

Ecommerce market structure in 2022

10

29

207

2

15

107

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

1 year

Accounting in Software [educational]

2

10

107

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

24 days

AI impacting IT investment priorities

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

24 days

Tighter budgets due to AI

1

9

94

1

12

107

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

6 days

This could be why Pershing Square has postponed US IPO!?

4

11

106

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

25 days

Updates on sell side cautioning about AI stocks...

7

13

106

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

1 year

"2022 ended the biggest investment cycle in Amazon’s history. In 2022, Amazon exited a 3 year “double” investment cycle in transportation (Delivery Stations & vehicles) plus capacity (Fulfilment Centers)... $AMZN

Bread Crumbs Research

@breadcrumbsre

1 year

people forgot about this one but here is a value creation framework following "over investment" phase

2

25

1

20

104

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

9 months

key take-aways from Adyen Investor Day

1

6

104

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

5 months

Amazon $AMZN 10K: AWS capital spend was $25BN, down 10% y/y, marking what we believe is the first y/y decline in AWS capital spend.

7

16

101

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

1 year

GLP-1 effect on muscle mass

10

15

101

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

11 months

PYPL is essentially pricing unbranded processing with no markup to interchange (ie, a zero net take rate), or a very small ($0.005-$0.02 fixed fee per transaction) markup as part of interchange-plus pricing model for very large enterprises (especially digital-centric merchants

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

11 months

BofA estimate of Braintree net take rate

2

4

53

2

9

103

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

4 months

Information services | what makes this industry attractive? /ms

3

15

100

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

1 year

Payment Processing Take Rate Adyen’s take rate is already far below peers $ADYEN $STNE $PYPL $PAGS $DLO $NVEI

5

12

101

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

3 months

Placer / foot traffic for the retailers Total foot traffic by company - year over year percent change

4

13

100

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

1 year

Adyen has a tiered pricing model where every time an existing client hits a certain volume threshold, pricing falls. In the context where more than 80% of the group's topline growth comes from existing clients, this naturally puts pressure on pricing.

6

15

99

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

1 year

key takeaways - MS (virtual) investor meeting with Adyen management

4

10

97