Chase Emmerson @AZLandInvestor Twitter profile

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

1 year

@unusual_whales I don’t believe the $50M offer. Roughly 40 homes would fit on that land based on surrounding home sizes. Even if $1M homes, homes themselves would be worth $40M. Typically finished lots are +- 25% of the home price. So finished it’d be $10M. Land = that less costs to finish

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

1 year

“How can they build so many homes in the desert? They need AC… that’s so unsustainable” AZ has 14th lowest residential energy consumption per capita in US - despite having larger homes. It’s much more energy efficient to cool a home than it is to heat one.

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

1 year

Lennar, #2 builder in US by volume, reported today that they have lowered pricing & increased incentives in response to high rates, but now they have “found the market” in all metros & are selling new homes at a good pace again… Gross Margin dropped 570 bps, but it’s still 21.2%

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

11 months

@TheStalwart No income tax, a lot of people there count their days to make sure they meet the minimum. Fly fishing guide told stories about NYC hedge fund & PE types would would ask to stop & use their credit card to buy a water or something, building up the evidence that they’re residents

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

1 year

They get a lot right, but here’s what YIMBYs get wrong: -Most people want to live in a SFR house, not in an apartment -Most are OK with driving -Eliminating zoning doesn’t mean instant supply. There’s still long process of planning & engineering -Some issues are federal (flood)

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

1 year

IMO 6 things make a sub $300k home nearly impossible today unless it’s a manufactured home: 1. Density - at least in PHX, the smallest detached SFR lot sizes that cities will sometimes accept & builders have standard product for is 40’ wide 2. Dev’t costs - horizontal costs

Lance Lambert

@NewsLambert

1 year

The $300k starter home is disappearing, writes @AlenaBotros :

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

1 year

New to Twitter. I’m a land investor/GP in Phoenix AZ & focus on future master-planned communities + industrial 3rd gen in AZ land biz USC undergrad/Columbia grad➡️ Ex-senior mgmt consultant ➡️Ex-top land broker in Scottsdale area ➡️Co-CEO Emmerson Holdings: 17k+ future SFR lots

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

3 months

I’m incredibly bearish on Arizona: -Too many foreign businesses are starting big operations here -We’re getting flooded by people moving here from CA, WA, IL, etc -Cities are competing w/ each other to attract new development & employers -As a state, we’re not ideological enough

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

6 months

Just received 7-0 approval on a 20-acre rezoning in Scottsdale. Councilwoman Whitehead graciously took time to publicly thank our team for being responsible developers, working with Staff & Council, and being respectful of the beautiful North Scottsdale desert. Proud moment.

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

3 months

A 1,000+ acre rezoning for a $14B data center project was just shot down in AZ. On a recent Odd Lots podcast, Brian Janous (ex-Microsoft top energy lead) talked about how future data centers are expected to receive more pushback from cities. @TheStalwart @tracyalloway

Phoenix Business Journal

@phxbizjournal

3 months

The project was expected to create jobs with salaries ranging from $80,000 to $250,000 a year.

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

1 year

Is PHX still growing? Today’s AZ Biz News! -Tallest tower in AZ moving forward, $575M project with 697 apts + hotel + comm -Semi supplier proposes new 75k SF building -Google starts on new $1B data center -$1.5B data center “topping out ceremony” -$400M hospital expansion

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

3 months

27 acres in Paradise Valley, AZ just sold for $46M! 27 lots ($1.7M ea) Over last few yrs looking at just 4 of our AZ buys, for < $46M Emmerson Holdings w/ investors bought 2,800+ acres in Goodyear, Surprise, City of Maricopa & Pinal with approvals now for 11k+ units. ~$4.2k/unit

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

7 months

@TheStalwart I get their mission and think some reforms are needed as far as disclosures / conflict of interest for legislators goes, but a lot of their headlines are just sensationalist and have zero context. Like XYZ Senator bought $50k of Lockheed Martin right before attack on Israel. Wow,

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

1 year

Arizona uses less water today than it did in 1957, despite 10x economic growth and 7x population growth. #AZWaterFacts

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

1 year

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

11 months

Here are the ways builders buy land (from least risky/most expensive to riskiest/least expensive): 1. Rolled finished lots, usually by a land banker 2. Buy finished lots once completed 3. Buy to-be-completed finished lots with finished lot costs guaranteed by developer/seller 4.

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

4 months

To all the AZ water doomers… isn’t it amazing that TSMC is spending $65B on water-intensive fabs in a state that is “running out of water”? Thank goodness nobody on X dropped the news on TSMC that AZ is out of water 🤣

Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

4 months

TSMC is building a 3rd fab, raising its total investment in AZ to $65B. Phoenix is quickly becoming the new semiconductor capital of the US.

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

3 months

Here’s an 80-acre site we own in City of Maricopa, AZ (pop. 75k). We paid <$1 PSF for land, applied to AZ Corp. Commission to get into utility’s designated service area for water/sewer, and rezoned for 329+- lots & a 5-acre commercial corner. DR Horton just landed 1/2 mile away

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

3 months

🙏6-0 approval tonight! Thanks to P&Z Commission, City Staff & Team. Proposed new land use plan vs. old plan. Adding a significant & integrated retail component & a range of housing options to meet different consumer preferences/needs. Density allows for quality + affordability

Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

3 months

Planning & Zoning Commission tonight on a ~236 acre Phase 2 of a future master-planned community The old 2005 zoning was 100% single family. Bringing a better mix of housing (single-family residential, build-to-rent & higher density for-sale housing), modern design & new retail.

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

4 months

Tonight we received rezoning approval for a new 2,666 unit/880 acre community + commercial! Desert Trails will be 1 of biggest new communities in Surprise, AZ (which will in a few yrs pass SLC, UT in population). Grateful for our team, Council & Staff!

New Master-planned Community Planned in Surprise - AZBEX

By Roland Murphy for AZBEX A collection of owners led by Emmerson Holdings has requested a rezoning of 880 acres in Surprise to allow the development of a new master-planned community called Desert...

azbex.com

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

1 year

@TheStalwart @jake_bittle “Some three-quarters of the Colorado is spread on farm fields”… farming will bear the brunt of the cuts in either scenario. Arizona has a $350+B economy, so we’re talking a modest economic impact in either scenario too

How Colorado River states would share water cuts under new federal proposal

A plan to prop up Colorado River reservoirs could for the first time spread shortages evenly across Arizona and other states that use its water.

www.azcentral.com

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

1 year

This is spot on. Below shows AZ water usage, which today is lower than it was in 1957! As agriculture has decreased, it’s given way to an explosion in population growth & especially economic growth.

Joe Weisenthal

@TheStalwart

1 year

@joshtpm @AZLandInvestor yeah, and the conclusion is probably that eventually the housing developers will buy out more and more of all the forms, allowing for an increase in population and a net reduction in water consumption.

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

1 year

With more than 80% of existing 30-year mortgages at or below a 4.5% interest rate, if mortgage rates dropped to the high 4’s or low 5’s I think you would see very low resale supply (people not moving) combined w/ a big jump in demand… which would need to be met by new housing.

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

5 months

This kind of optionality (unknown and unknowable use cases) is truly only possible with land! It looks like Toll paid $5M for the land and sold it for $180M!

Conor Sen

@conorsen

5 months

Toll Brothers sold a large parcel of land ($180M) in northern Virginia to…a data center operator:

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

1 year

People don’t appreciate how impactful hybrid work is in terms of suburban growth. Take someone who commuted 20 minutes each way for 5 days/wk. If they now WFH 2 days/wk they can live 13+ mins further away (where homes are much more affordable)& spend same time each wk on commutes

Jim Russell

@ProducerCities

1 year

Suburban boom loop: Even if workers aren't fully remote, they're not going into offices 5 days a week. That makes the suburbs appealing, says Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the NAR. "A little bit of a longer commute is not a hindrance"

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

1 year

@rice_rust_belt Maricopa County has 475k acres of crops. NYC ~0. That’s the difference. 72% water used by ag. Not hubris to put civilization in middle of desert. PHX has supported a large pop. for ~2000 yrs based on diverse water resources. Very close to safe yield (4% short) & have 100 yr plan

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

7 months

Doom ReTwit, is this tired playbook the best you’ve got? 1. Find someone who made a bad buy at exact wrong time & screenshot it 2. Sensationalize a very small loss 3. Hint that “this is just the beginning” 4. Ignore the builders and other data 5. Stay in the “Doom” echo chamber

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

4 months

Story behind name - AZ cities: Casa Grande - Native American ruins called “Big House” by Spaniards Eloy - East Line of Yuma (railroad) Surprise - its founder said she “would be surprised if the town ever amounted to much” Goodyear - Goodyear Tire owned 16k acres for cotton

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

4 months

@TheStalwart He wins the award for longest prison sentence for a former Odd Lots guest!

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

8 months

Only 30% of large homebuilders have enough land for next 3+ years, per a Zonda survey. And 70% expect to increase new home starts in 2024. Great presentation by @AliWolfEcon at the Land Advisors’ Phoenix Land & Housing Forecast!

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

9 months

According to YIMBY’s, zoning reform is everything. According to real estate practitioners surveyed by Urban Land Institute, labor, materials & regulations are more important. Immigration > Zoning Reform? *Yes, land costs and state & local regulations are related to NIMBYism*

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

1 year

A hedge fund CEO shared this is his view too. “The Fed has all the tools it needs to bring inflation down without a hard landing”. Imagine jump in new housing demand if: -Strong job mkt -Inflation cools & 10 yr treasuries drop -Spread btwn 10 yr T & 30 yr mortgage normalizes

Mark Zandi

@Markzandi

1 year

With a bit of luck and reasonably good policymaking by the Fed, we should skirt recession. Indeed, the pervasive pessimism has served the purposes of the Fed - cooling off consumer spending and business investment, which is critical to getting inflation back in its bottle.

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

4 months

TSMC is building a 3rd fab, raising its total investment in AZ to $65B. Phoenix is quickly becoming the new semiconductor capital of the US.

TSMC plans third fab in Phoenix, increases investment to $65 billion - AZ Big Media

At $65 billion, TSMC ’s investment is the largest foreign direct investment in a greenfield project in U.S. history.

azbigmedia.com

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

5 months

The late great Ed Mel gave an interview in 2008. When asked what it was about the AZ land that inspired him, he said: “Oh, the land and the sky... I mean, it, it’s just so marvelous” His art is dramatic & beautiful. Nothing captures the marvelousness of Arizona quite like it.

azcentral

@azcentral

5 months

Opinion: 'There are subtle guys and there are guys who like to shout,' Arizona artist Ed Mell said then. 'I like people to ... be taken aback.'

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

1 year

@TripleNetInvest I’m a 3rd gen AZ land investor. Biggest return on a land deal (800+ acres) for my Dad was $500 to $30k/ac. Grandpa worked for Getz family- amazing AZ returns since 1960’s In my career had land deals appreciate/sell for 4-15x + over a 3-10 yrs. 1 from $10k to $190k/acre in ~5 yrs

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

7 months

@TheStalwart At the end of the day, think they’re better off focusing on real cases of abuse and highly irregular trading activity vs. just throwing a bunch of shade. These non-event type stories erode their own credibility & frankly that of legislators who in some cases may not deserve that

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

1 year

“AZ has banked …enough [groundwater] to sustain Phoenix & Tucson’s urban needs for a decade…For it to be 10 years’ worth of water, the Colorado & Salt Rivers would have to dry up, all groundwater pumping would have to stop, & it’d have to quit raining.”

Here's the truth about the Arizona water supply - AZ Big Media

Arizona is amidst a historic drought and water supplies continue to dwindle, but here's the truth about the Arizona water supply.

azbigmedia.com

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

1 year

1 misunderstood aspect of AZ’s growth… many assume that it’s driven only by people who can’t afford CA. But look at $4+M avg prices in Paradise Valley, or growth in N Scottsdale. AZ has gained many business owners & wealthy new residents based on biz climate & quality of life.

Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

1 year

The luxury market in Paradise Valley (wealthy enclave of Phoenix) continues to be absolutely on fire, with very low supply & high demand. 2 spec homes under construction listed for a total of nearly ~$50M.

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

6 months

@bobbyfijan Or $1.095M in Surprise, AZ @ Toll Brothers’ Sterling Grove! 3460 SF

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

1 year

Scottsdale is 5th largest city in AZ, pop. 250k. Within <10 yrs, supply of new single-family homes is about to shutdown. Only 3 future master-planned communities left in N. Scottsdale: Wildcat Hill (122 lots), Reata Ranch (330 lots) & Fiesta Ranch (227 lots). 679 lots. That’s it

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

10 months

If you haven’t listened, Barkin’s comments on housing are spot on…. secular shift towards growing importance of housing to consumers. Low supply driven by mortgage lock-in effect & seniors aging in place. New home market quite active/vibrant, but demand weaker. Bullish long-term

Joe Weisenthal

@TheStalwart

10 months

NEW ODD LOTS: It's the @RichmondFed President. Tom Barkin came on the show to talk to @tracyalloway and @boes_ (who sub'd in for me) about the US economic resiliency, structurally higher demand for housing, supply chains, and the impact of higher rates.

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

10 months

Phoenix - the most affordable major housing market in the West… OK Vegas barely wins, but does anyone really want to live in Vegas? And it helps that Phoenix has the fastest income growth in the country too.

SFR Investor - Ben Riehle

@SFR_Investor

10 months

Fantastic visual on the income required for home ownership in the top 50 cities in the U.S. Link to article below.

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

6 months

@moseskagan Lots of good ones mentioned already, but will add 4: Urban Land Institute’s Emerging Trends Report Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies’ State of the Nation’s Housing Report John Burns Research & Consulting Zonda

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

5 months

Phoenix is labeled a poster child for sprawl & long commutes. But PHX’s avg commute is now on par w/ among shortest avg commutes for largest 30 metros. Lower than Denver, Charlotte & Austin, & just above San Diego Great data @ResidentialClub @NewsLambert . Subscribe to ResiClub!

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

10 months

This is type of deal I get excited about. We paid $11.6M ($10k/ac) for 1,160 ac./3,600+ lots w/ water & sewer solution in May ‘21, by 7th fastest growing City in US then. A top builder in escrow nearby & closed 600+ lots. Now selling homes fast. Builder comps in area $65+k/acre

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

1 year

Twitter’s wild. Appearing on Bloomberg’s Odd Lots is wilder. Intro’s from podcast: -Founder of public builder told team “call & go buy AZ land” -A top owner of builder stocks -Founder of multi $ B RE-related firm -NFL player -Top RE journalists & analysts -Large private builder

Joe Weisenthal

@TheStalwart

1 year

TRANSCRIPT: The full text of our chat with @AZLandInvestor is out. Tons of stuff in here about short-run, and long-run trends in homebuilding. And how a Sunbelt boom state like Arizona is thinking about the future of its water supply.

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

1 year

AZ Water 101: 1.) If you are a homeowner and don’t haul your own water in a truck, nobody is taking away your water 2.) If you own land with a 100-year assured water supply, nobody is taking that away either 3.) Construction is not being “halted” as many in the media have stated

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

1 year

The luxury market in Paradise Valley (wealthy enclave of Phoenix) continues to be absolutely on fire, with very low supply & high demand. 2 spec homes under construction listed for a total of nearly ~$50M.

Two Valley luxury spec homes on Mummy Mountain listed for nearly $50M

Two ultra-luxury mountainside estates with the highest view lots in Paradise Valley are listed for a total of nearly $50 million, even before construction begins. Inspired by Frank Lloyd Wright's...

www.bizjournals.com

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

11 months

Phoenix #1 in US for retail growth, per Costar. “Its nation-leading pop. growth encouraged retailer expansion...and its growing labor market… as well as its expanding & diversifying local economy. Construction typically takes place in Phoenix’s high-growth suburban areas”

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

11 months

Yesterday I received a terrific update from the Arizona Commerce Authority. AZ is under consideration for 400+ large job-creating projects; over 50 of those are mega projects (over 1,000 jobs or $500+M of CAPEX). Here are the top 5 factors that make Arizona so competitive:

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

8 months

@moseskagan 4 cool things about it: -Learning from previous generations / getting a historical perspective -Bonding with family through shared work -Reputation/ word is your bond extends not only thru your own life but through generations -Multi-generational relationships with investors

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

1 year

Land investment requires more judgment than analysis, & more local vs. functional knowledge. Some of our best deals didn’t “pencil” in traditional sense at time of acquisition. That’s why the return potential can exceed that of other RE: Asymmetric Info + Judgment is Req’d 1/3

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

1 year

@mortgagetruth 72% of our water is still used for agriculture today. We use less water as a state today than in 1957, and with 7x the population and 10x the economy. Managing resources + adapting + growing

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

9 months

Great data below from John Burns Research & Consulting! This is the back-up data for Jim Egan’s great comments on recent Odd Lots episode… As rates move higher, the incremental impact is less for both demand & for lock-in effect re: existing supply. @TheStalwart @tracyalloway

Alex Thomas

@housing_alex

9 months

After 8%, each incremental rise in mortgage rates will start to have much less of an impact on affordability and overall housing demand. Rates would have to rise SIGNIFICANTLY to really dent demand further from here, especially at higher price points.

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

3 months

A big account posted raise your hand if you’re self-made. Not me! Blessed to have a loving Mom & Dad. Dad brought me into land biz & taught me so much. Stability of my wife’s job early on enabled us to invest & take risks w/ my career. Now she’s the amazing mother to our kids❤️

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

1 year

Land that has water…that isn’t being taken away, & there’s plenty for growth. Land that didn’t have water will now have a harder time getting water. This will cause a divergence in values btwn haves & have nots, & it will direct growth to areas w/ water.

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

2 months

9 key takeaways on the current state of the new housing market (from Lennar’s Q2 2024 conference call): 1. Interest rates at 6.75% drove additional demand ➡️ “interest rates started lower and felt constructive at approximately 6.75% as the market was adjusting to a new normal”

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

6 months

Lots of builder inquiries and offers on land/lots in metro Phoenix over the past 2 weeks. Things are really picking up. Strongest I’ve seen it since before spring of 2022 when mortgage rates shot up

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

10 months

There’s 1 company that everyone in the housing biz will have their eyes on next week… Pulte! $PHM, the nation’s 3rd largest homebuilder, reports Q3 earnings next Tuesday Look for commentary on the impact of ~8% mortgage rates on the new housing market & Pulte’s outlook for 2024

The Transcript

@TheTranscript_

10 months

Early look at earnings next week with the likes of Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Visa & Mastercard reporting: $MSFT $GOOGL $GOOG $SNAP $V $VZ $GE $RTX $MMM $ADM $TDOC $MTDR $TXN $BYD $META $IBM $BA $TMO $TMUS $HLT $NOW $ALGN $KLAC $ORLY $BKR $EW $EQT $MAT $ODFL $ADP $AMZN $ENPH

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

4 months

We own 280+ acres of industrial land right off the 339th Ave. & Interstate 10 full-diamond interchange. Yes, it’s far out from Goodyear/Loop 303, but it’s one of the only sites where truck drivers can drive to Inland Empire, CA and back within the 11-hour driving limit. @JLL

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

1 year

Solutions: -Rising wages so $300k is no longer target; they’re up -Lower mtg rates via drop in 10 yr T yield or (historic) spread between 10 yr & mortgages -Immigration -> lower build costs -More density -Smaller homes -Value eng. home -Home’s higher % of budget -Further out

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

1 year

Must listen pod on complexities of AZ water! “AZ has some of most progressive water laws in world” “PHX area blessed w/ very large aquifers” + Salt/Verde Rivers (sustainable) + CAP. “Enough water for what we most value” “Subdivisions much less water intensive than farming”

Joe Weisenthal

@TheStalwart

1 year

NEW ODD LOTS: What the Arizona water battles are really all about. @tracyalloway and I talked to Kathryn Sorensen, one of the top water policy researchers at ASU. Absolutely awesome at explaining the state's economy, geology, ecology, and history.

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

10 months

“People come to Phoenix in search of sunshine & opportunity. Accompanying this influx are media narratives that the region is doomed to run out of water…The idea that Phoenix will run out of water is more than odd, it’s wrong.” @TheStalwart

Opinion | Phoenix Is in No Danger of Running Out of Water

Farmers in Arizona use far more of it than residents do, so demand declines as the population grows.

www.wsj.com

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

6 months

DR Horton Call -Expanding into new markets, leading to higher SG&A➡️ this fits my thesis that builders will need to move more & more to edges of growth due to lack of land & affordability in more core submarkets -Land supply on books sort of @ minimum needed to sustain operations

Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

7 months

DR Horton ( #1 builder in US) reports next Tuesday 1/23 ⬇️.

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

1 year

@mucha_carlos @ebwhamilton We’re working on bringing this type of product/zoning to suburbs here in certain areas. Also, build to rent communities/bungalows that are 12 units to the acre roughly. Or auto-court product that’s 6 units to acre. Or of course small lot SFR

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

8 months

@shawngorham Ojai Valley Inn

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

5 months

“Surprise, AZ is now on a trajectory to grow bigger than Salt Lake City, UT within a few years.” -Tom Zoellner *he’s right*

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

1 year

Agreed. Our meetings with large national builders looking for new land positions in Phoenix market are picking up… Their Jan & Feb sales exceeding expectations + likelihood of lower 30 yr mortgage rates + light land positions now= looking for new land to meet demand in 2024-2026

beyond mental models

@beyond_mental

1 year

Channel checks are suggesting builders are increasing starts pace as Jan/Feb have been half as bad as they expected. Street is assuming catastrophic numbers, it appears those have an upward bias now. If we are done with rate hikes, that is another +ve. $NVR, $LEN, $DHI, $PHM

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

7 months

How to earn outsized risk-adjusted returns? Find a market with: 1. Few natural buyers 2. Asymmetric info (ie get an edge) 3. Ways to add value w/ skills/ relationships 4. Unknowable return outcomes that require judgment 5. High convexity: relatively limited downside & big upside

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

11 months

The $30B fab that Intel’s building in Chandler doesn’t get as much attention as TSMC, but it should. 10+ cranes up today. Will bring 3k high-wage jobs, possibly 4k based on expanded footprint. City of Maricopa is logical place for new housing & supplier sites— a 15 min drive.

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

1 year

Phoenix is building a mega plant to make wastewater drinkable by 2030. It will “purify 60M gallons/ day — enough water for about 200k households per year,” according to AZ Republic. AZ has been adapting to manage water resources & grow for nearly 2k yrs.

Phoenix to build multibillion dollar purification plant to make wastewater drinkable by 2030

Phoenix plans to build an advanced water purification plant to recycle wastewater into drinking water. It would mean more drinking water than before.

www.azcentral.com

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

22 days

It’s impossible to overstate what Rachel Sacco (head of Experience Scottsdale) has done for Scottsdale 🙌 “For every $1 spent on advertising, $116 was generated in visitor spending & $4 in local taxes.” “Scottsdale is viewed more favorably than…Las Vegas, Miami & Palm Springs”

Phoenix Business Journal

@phxbizjournal

22 days

Scottsdale is having its moment in the national spotlight.

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

1 year

Celebrating a closing today. Sold ~4% of a land investment which returned ~75% of the total invested capital

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

7 months

Some of you seem to like land planning as much as I do. Here’s a 280+ acre site that we are planning for 900+ units. Notice that this is a hand-drawn sketch. The best land planners still start with a hand-drawn layout before putting everything into CAD. Wish I could do this!

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

2 months

Sedona in late May / early June is hard to beat. Actually a little chilly down by Oak Creek in the morning! Less than a 2 hour drive from Phoenix.

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

11 months

Mexico now supplies more goods to US than China! AZ will benefit more from both near-shoring (Mexico) & re-shoring (e.g. TSMC) than any state but TX (bc of Laredo & El Paso) CA / Inland Empire had been major beneficiary of trade from China. Look for industrial moves to AZ & TX!

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

5 months

One of the most misunderstood aspects of migration to metro Phoenix is that it’s purely about affordability: ie buyers from CA moving to AZ bc of the lower cost of living. However, even for high net worth buyers, only S. Florida ranks higher than PHX. N. Scottsdale & PV going 🚀

Phoenix Business Journal

@phxbizjournal

5 months

The Valley is the No. 2 destination nationwide for high net worth migration.

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

1 year

2 potential outcomes due to misinformation & mischaracterization of AZ water worry me: 1. Employers not finding out facts on water & therefore may not locate in AZ 2. People may not move to AZ Fact is: AZ has water for companies + new housing, just not in certain far flung areas

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

4 months

“Scottsdale has the 2nd highest growth rate for millionaires, according to the USA Wealth Report 2024 from Henley & Partners, which found that the Valley city had a 102% increase in millionaires between 2013 & 2023. Only Austin, Texas, had a higher rate, at 110%.” @phxbizjournal

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

11 months

@NewsLambert @WSJ Definitely some moral hazard going on there too. Those least able to deal with a disaster (albeit they do own their house w/o a mortgage) forgo insurance. Disaster strikes and gov’t plays clean-up. Then more homeowners who own their home free & clear also forgo insurance. Repeat.

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

3 months

Typical value-add land buy: -Thru a broker -Cash -90-day close -Rezone for >density single-family & some BTR/retail -Negotiate development agmt w/ City -Utilities work (w/ utility, neighbor, City, etc) -Get CLOMR/remove flood -Engineering -Dev’t budgets -Sell at final approvals

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

1 year

Example of growth in higher price points…When our Storyrock community launched in 2019, new homes were starting in $700’s. Today, the lowest starting price for our Storyrock buyers (Shea, DW & Rosewood) is $1.7M. Toll Brothers closed on our last phase for $24.7M in March 2023

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

5 months

Conor nails housing again. A trend is “outer Phoenix rather than core Phoenix… if you are trying to hit a $400k price point for entry-level buyers, with land prices where they are maybe you can’t do that in PHX anymore” 💯! Growth will be in Surprise, Maricopa, Florence, etc

Conor Sen

@conorsen

5 months

It was great to be back on the Top of Mind podcast with @mikesimonsen talking where housing’s been over the past couple years and where it might be going:

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

6 months

Tonight we received planning commission approval on a 12-lot / 20-acre future community in N. Scottsdale! Notice all the green? Quality development like this preserves large amounts of open space, brings developer-funded utilities/roads, & maintains rural character of the area.

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

1 year

@nntaleb Another area to visit, Scottsdale’s McDowell Sonoran Preserve. At over 30k acres, it’s the largest urban nature preserve in the lower 48 states. Favorite trailhead is Tom’s Thumb - right by our Storyrock community

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

4 months

Closing on a new land investment tomorrow… our first 100+ acre buy since ~880 acres in December 2022, and not for lack of trying! And actually, we put this new land under contract back in 2021! Better to wait for the right buys vs. rushing to put capital to work.

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

4 months

Our 2,666 unit Surprise, AZ rezoning passed 5-2 Tues. Council helped reach a compromise w/ neighbors to cut commercial some, though 2 on council wanted commercial to be left as-is “It’s going to be a project we are really proud of,” Council member Remley

More residential space added to Surprise Desert Trails development plan - Daily Independent

The Surprise City Council voted April 16 to add more residential space and reduce commercial capacity for an 880-acre future master-planned community in the city’s northwest area. The …

www.yourvalley.net

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

1 year

1. Personally, I’m pro ALL kinds of housing: urban/high-rise, ‘missing middle’ & yes, small lot single-family too. There are BIG buyer/renter segments that want ALL of these types of housing, & I think we need a lot more of ALL of them to address affordability. Professionally,

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

3 months

Few natural buyers, high barriers to entry, difficult to value, ability to leverage insider info, ton of optionality/upside, limited supply, low carrying costs, ability to add value w/ entitlements… what more could you want? Best thing is making a big multiple, not depreciation

Nick Huber

@sweatystartup

3 months

I’ve never understood the guys who buy land and sit on it. There is no depreciation and there is no cashflow. Those are the two best things about real estate. And you get neither!

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

6 months

"We're in growth mode," said Jeff Gunderson, SVP of land for Lennar. "In order to do that, we've got to buy land. We're going to be very aggressive buying land this year. Our goal is to be nearly double in size in three to four years in home closings." @phxbizjournal

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

1 year

@TripleNetInvest Sometimes find deals where there literally are no other bidders for the land. Raw land has few natural buyers. But when a property is taken thru entitlements, and when a submarket is given time to mature, all of a sudden the buyers crawl out of the woodwork & pay full retail.

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

11 months

Why is it so hard to build & sell a house for < $300k? To finish the lot it typ. costs above $1500/front foot. So a 45’ wide lot costs $67.5k+ to improve. Home price is ~4x lot price based on cost to build & profit margin. Even if land was 100% free that would be a $270+k house!

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

7 months

We just got an approved final plat (“final approvals”) for 184 lots + a retail site on a 40-acre parcel in the City of Maricopa, AZ. Mix of 40’ & 45’ wide lots. Lennar on the section of land to the north. DR Horton just closed on a site directly to the east (w/ a land banker).

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

2 months

One of my favorite places in AZ… Sonoita.

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

1 year

Will add regulatory reform to that list! And improving cycle times (which allows a builder to accept a lower margin). Inspections & permitting processes hurt both cycle times and direct costs.

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

7 months

Merry Christmas! A beautiful AZ Christmas sunset.

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

11 months

It’s too bad there’s no water close to Phoenix…. All of these are within a 5 mins to 2 hours drive.

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Chase Emmerson

@AZLandInvestor

1 year

Honored to be joining the Board of Maricopa Economic Development Alliance! MEDA is the economic development org for the City of Maricopa, AZ — the 7th fastest-growing city in the US. Maricopa is 15 mins from Intel’s $30B new fab. Its future is bright!

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