100-140% in stocks. Only my money. An updated daily diary. Attempted humour. Not controversial. Give & you shall receive. Big fan of low liked tweets. ๐
My Monthly Charity Contest returns for another full year starting in September.
Till then, my mom has 5 picks for June
I have 5 picks for July
I'm undecided for August
I don't lack ideas. ๐
#1
@ericnuttall
was on
@marketcall
.
- Huge divergence between narrative vs reality for
#Oil
- Inventories tells you health of oil is strong
- China/India with record demand
- Refiners see strong oil demand
- Airlines are close to record summer demand
Sold all my $su $arx.to $cve $pne.to $gxe.to.
Sold 50% $tve.to $sgy.to.
My bro is now mortgage free!
Thank You O&G! I couldn't of done it without your help!
The portfolio is down, but not out!
#oott
#1
@ericnuttall
was on marketcall
This is his coverage on stocks
$vet
- was a short-term holding in Jan
- cost him performance
- blindsided by Irish windfall tax
- 2.7x at $80 25% fcf
- 25% fcf returned by buybacks
- lost leverage to european gas exposure
(cont.)
#1
@ericnuttall
was on Marketcall
Oil market was victim to 3 false scenarios
1) weak oil demand
2) surging U.S. production
3) an induced price crash to install discipline to shale producers
Today
- demand at record highs
- every metric shows very strong oil demand
#1
@ericnuttall
was on BNN
- sentiment is deplorable, horrific
- global inventories are the lowest since 2017
- massive breakdown from fundamentals
- demand is not as strong as we thought
- supply has grown more than we thought
- this oil price doesn't work for OPEC
#1
@ericnuttall
Top 3 Picks
1) $cpg
- 100% upside
- has shifted to Montney play
- decades of inventory
- might be largest active SH
- trades at 2.8x cf at $80
- 22% fcf, 50% going to SH
- it's looking for opportunities
- using new frac techniques
(cont.)
My thesis by year end
WTI $85-$90
O&G 20-30% upside
$cnq $100
$su $54
$cve $32
$wcp $cpg $14
$sgy $11
$tve $5
I own all the above
At those prices I trim 50%
Not selling $wcp $cpg
I don't drink or do drugs. Maybe I should start? ๐
My portfolio agrees. 85% o&g weighing.
#1
Barry Schwartz, CIO & Portfolio Manager, Baskin Wealth Mgmt
- something has changed with large cap ๐จ๐ฆ energy
- flush with cash
- balance sheets are in perfect shape
- by end of 2025, ~8 of them will be returning 100% of fcf to SH
- these are the new dividend kings
Oil just hit $80.
$ath >$5.00
$cpg >$10.00
$cnq is a few dollars from $100
Just a few of our wonderful ๐จ๐ฆ o&g companies!
Even $bte is green. Green with envy? ๐
#1
@ericnuttall
was on Marketcall
His top 3 picks: $cpg $bte $pd
$cpg
- a misunderstood stock
- spent 2 years repositioning into the Duvernay & Montney
- Duvernay over a decade of high-quality inventory & the Montney with 2 decades
- 60% fcf to SH
(cont)
#1
@ericnuttall
was on marketcall.
Top picks (1) $cve
- number 1 large cap pick
- 17%-22% fcf at $80-$100
- bulletproof balance sheet
- 30+ yrs inventory
- 50-100% upside at $80-$100
- should hit debt tgt Q2 2024 = 100% fcf to SH
- at a discount to peers
#1
@ericnuttall
was on Marketcall today
- still a fear of recession
- record oil demand
- demand will continue to grow
- excited on the supply side
- twilight of US shale
--> financial constraints by SH
--> wells are getting worse & gassier
- KSA curtailing volume
#1
@ericnuttall
was on BNN
- huge sell off 15%
- 2 markets
- physical, with a 2 day lag, can tell you what global gasoline, diesel & jet fuel demand is doing
- demand is not the issue, neither the supply
- inventories continue to fall
WCS!
I had to take a second look! Look at that jump on WCS!
Almost US$60.
C$80.49
Differential $73.66 - $59.88 = $13.78 ๐ฏ
I'm noticing. Will the market notice?
If I was to sell 2k shares of $cpg, my remaining 8k shares would be free.
If I was to sell 3k shares of $wcp, my remaining 7k shares would be free.
This doesn't even count all the dividends I've collected.
I โค๐จ๐ฆ Energy
#1
@ericnuttall
Top Picks Sept. 23 2023
1) $cve
- meaningful leverage at $90
- final debt tgt. by January. Then 100% fcf to SH
- presently trading at 17% fcf
- should trade at 6x multiple & 10% fcf = 50% price upside at $90
Meaningful buybacks = re-rating
You know what is priceless? Take a look at
@ericnuttall
facial expression when a caller calls in saying that $su is ๐จ๐ฆ premier oil name! ๐
I can't stop laughing!
I own $su shares. Should I start crying?
#oott
$cve has just released its ER. I'll type up the highlights later after I'm back.
Increasing base dividend 29% to a quarterly $0.18 per share. Payable June 28 to SH of record on June 14
Also a special dividend! $0.135 per share. Payable May 31 to SH of record on May 17! Oh ya!
#1
@ericnuttall
was on Marketcall
- golden age for ๐จ๐ฆ oil companies
- TMX should be operational in a few weeks
- it has clearly shrunk the differential
- which was a big reason why foreign investors weren't investing in ๐จ๐ฆ
- huge fcf at the current oil price
#1
@ericnuttall
was on Marketcall
That's one good looking laptop!
- active on X
- a morose among investors on the energy sector
- investors need a reality check
- his fund is up 20%
- energy stocks are working
#1
@ericnuttall
was on Marketcall
- big liquidation of net speculative length
- at a 5 month low
- complete elimination of any political risk premium
- went to 33% cash
- actively spending that
- spent $500M over the last week & a half
- key OPEC meeting soon
Say hello to my little friend.
I've been wearing this thing that Davinci probably invented (he was a genius) for a 3rd month
2 years of not walking. In 3 weeks it's coming off. With a special boot I'll be walking
That day is a day before my birthday. What a great gift!
๐
#1
@ericnuttall
was on marketcall. His top 3 picks are
$bte $bte.to $nva $nva.to $pd $pd.to
$bte
- a long-time holding
- a long-time laggard
- still holding because of the large price disconnect
- 13 years of safe-side inventory of high-grade EF acreage & other assets (cont)
#1
@ericnuttall
was on BNN
- having the removal of any geopolitical risk premium
- this is a good thing
- it's removing some volatility with big oil price moves
- heading into summer where seasonal demand โฌ๏ธ
- inventories falling to the lowest levels in history by year end
#1
$wcp year ended 2023 results
- 11% production per share growth
- achieved 2nd of 2 net debt milestones
- 2023 production 156,501 boe/d
- 103,104 bbl/d of light oil &liquids
- 320,922 mcf/d nat gas
- fff $838M
- net debt <$1.4B
- 0.7x debt to EBITDA
#1
I've been friends with 10k shares of $wcp $wcp.to since 2020. This report is simply "magnifique"
Q2/24 ER
- net income $244.5M $0.41/share
- ff $426.4M
- fff $222.6M
- net debt $1.3B EBITDA ratio of 0.6x
- record quarterly production 177.3k boe/d
#1
@ericnuttall
was on BNN
- selloff in oil was unjustified based on fundamentals
- the financial market is 30-50x bigger than the physical one
- the market panicked on the idea of voluntary cuts returning starting in October
- can get selloffs by algos & such
Delightfully Delicious Decadent Dividends Directly Deposited Dis Day ๐
$cj $1,200
$hwx $700 its quarterly
$pey $220
$sgy $160
$tve $100
$wcp $608
$2,988 oh ya!
Dividends make a lot of cent$
Good Morning!
Someone's knocking at the door
Somebody ringing the the bell
Do me a favor
Open the door, let 'em in, oh ya ๐
5:30am & payday has arrived $2,553
$cj $1,200
$pey $220
$sgy $200
$tve $125
$wcp $608
Next week $tou $350 + $210
Say hello to my little friend.
I've been wearing this thing that Davinci probably invented (he was a genius) for a 3rd month
2 years of not walking. In 3 weeks it's coming off. With a special boot I'll be walking
That day is a day before my birthday. What a great gift!
๐
Only my money. Only my risk.
Yesterday I sold my copper stocks & added to my o&g. Now over 90%.
I'll stick to the sector that's making insane fcf at $85 WTI. A sector that does buybacks & pays dividends. A sector that will be with us for a while longer!
#oott
Bro & dad. Today's his 87th birthday (dad)
I'm 3 months from walking. Then its back to Pizza night with dad. It won't be 87 candles but 87 pepperoni slices....that's just on his half! Oh ya!
I'm so lucky to have both my parents still causing trouble! โค
Bonjour de Montrรฉal ๐
A big reason for the underperformance of ๐จ๐ฆ o&g has been potentially the 2 year delay of the TMX.
No longer! The variance has been approved!
I bet even $cve stock will respond positively.
Stay warm everyone. Stay safe!
The Commission of the
#CER
has approved Trans Mountain's variance application with conditions: . The reasons for the decision will be released in the coming weeks. Trans Mountain can now use 30-inch pipe for the 2.3-km section near the Fraser River in B.C.
Rick Rule on ๐จ๐ฆ o&g
- cheap as they've ever been
- not buying $tou, he already owns so much of it
- why wouldn't a ๐จ๐ฆ own $fru?
- $cnq is a fairly intelligent choice, but mid-caps are cheaper
- $arx is one of those mid-caps that are stupidly undervalued
- gvt. change = โฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ
#1
@ericnuttall
was on BNN this morning.
I'll start with his highlighted picks.
$bte $meg $cve
Share the following attributes :
- heavy oil exposed
- deep inventories
- trading at 1/3 to 1/2 of historical values
- fcf at $80. BTE 28%, MEG 19%, CVE 15%
#1
@ericnuttall
was on Marketcall yesterday Nov 22 2023
- violent selloff of oil
- financial demand for oil has collapsed
- $200M paper barrels of oil have been sold
- stop losses triggered, technical levels breached & a total washout
Look who's back from Wien.
@ericnuttall
is on Marketcall tomorrow.
With WTI โฌ๏ธ$1.25 to $84.42 at this moment want to bet he'll be wearing a bigger smile! ๐
$bte $pd $cve
The first person to post correctly his 3 top picks wins $200 for their ๐จ๐ฆ charity.
I'll be typing. ๐
So
@ericnuttall
is on
@marketcall
#1
Falling inventories
Oil price is a Xmas gift
Oil down Stocks up..nice disconnect
Prefers oil
Oil should be $100 today
$wcp $wcp.to
- net debt down $110M to $1.36B
- expects to reach $1.3B milestone 2nd half 2023. Then 75% fcf to SH. 26% dividend increase to $0.73 per share per year.
- wildfires impacted production
- no significant damage. All online now
- $197M free funds flow
$wcp $wcp.to officially announced 26% dividend hike from a monthly $0.0483 to $0.0608 per share. That's annually $0.73 & at today's $11.05 = 6.6% yield.
My boring monthly payment of $483 will now be less boring at $603! ๐
The dividend is effective Oct 2023 & payable Nov 2023
My o&g portfolio heading into 2024 ranked top to bottom by $ amount. Added some back last week. Oh ya!
$cj
$cpg
$wcp
$cve
$su
$bte
$hwx
$tou
$sgy
$tve
$pey
$gxe
$rok
The daily positioning is subject to the craziness of the market & me! ๐
#1
Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Mgr, Ninepoint Partners
3 hot picks in the Energy sector
$bte $bte.to $cve $cve.to $nva $nva.to
$bte
- a long-term laggard
- it hasn't performed
- $80 oil & $4 gas over the next 5 years will return 95% of its current market cap to SH (cont)
#1
$bte ER Q3 2023
- first full quarter of combined operations following the Ranger acquisition
- current production exceeding 155k boe/d
--> 84% oil & NGL
- expect $400M in Q4/23 & $650M for the year
- 2 heavy oil extensions Peavine & Cold Lake
#1
$WCP Q1/24 ER ๐
- achieved record production
- 169.6k boe/d (oil 88.8k bbls/d, NGL 19.4k bbls/d)
- increased guidance by 2k boe/d with no change in capital budget
- net income $59.8M
- ff $384M
- fff -$9.2M
- net debt $1.495B (0.7x debt/EBITDA)
With Eric on Marketcall today it was a good time to post the Y-T-D performance of some ๐จ๐ฆ o&g stocks
Yesterday, 9 of those hit 52-week highs
$scr $meg $erf $imo $arx $cnq $su $psk $tpz
Since it happened on April 1, I'm renaming that day to
April Fuel's Day! ๐
Woohoo! 550k barrels of ๐จ๐ฆ oil heading west!
"Go West Young Oil"
Goodbye Angel. Hello $$$$.
$su $su.to
Eric did mention it yesterday. He said that people still hate it for having cut its dividend. ๐
Something to be proud today as Canadians: Tanker โDubai Angelโ departs B.C. after being the first one loading bitumen from new expanded TMX Pipeline. Sadly this wonโt make headlines.
#cdnpoli
#com
$SU.TO $SU $CNQ $CNQ.TO $MEG.TO $MEGEF $IMO $IMO.TO $CVE $CVE.TO
#1
@ericnuttall
was on Marketcall
His top picks : $cpg $pou $pd
$cpg
- today's CPG wasn't the CPG of old
- people don't fully appreciate the transformation
- has significant drilling inventory in the Montney & Duvernay
(cont)
RBC Capital expects 3 more $2 special
#dividends
from $tou.
That would mean a total dividends of $9 per share. At today's price of $56 that's a yield of 16%.
I own $tou.to
- unconfirmed report that Sinochem has bought 550k barrels of heavy crude from $su
- no comments from either but mgmt at BeegJJ responded "Oh ya Baby! Here we go!"
- U.S. refiners ๐ญ
- after years of secure & cheap supplies from ๐จ๐ฆ
- grade similar to Iraq's Basrah crude
๐ค๐๐๐ฐ
#1
@ericnuttall
was on Marketcall. His top 3 picks :
$bte $bte.to $pd $pd.to $arx $arx.to
$bte
- been a long-term holding
- massive disconnect from its fair value
- not been a great experience for investors in the last year
- massive confusion in this name (cont)
#1
Cole Smead, Portfolio Manager, Smead Capital Management was on Marketcall
Top Picks :
1) $meg
- long reserve life
- thinks highly of mgmt
- wish they hadn't paid down so much debt
- they'd probably be at 100% fcf to buybacks now
- great asset
(cont)
Another new Asian buyer of ๐จ๐ฆ crude from the TMX. Reliance from India. 2M barrels.
Get use to this.
They had no comment, me either ๐๐ค๐ค๐ค๐
$tou $tou.to
- special dividend $1.00 <-- was my guess
- cf $784M
- fcf $545.5M
- Q2 net earnings $510.7M
- net debt $791.1M
- continued strong results from North Montney. Pad payouts in less than 3 months.
- special dividend paid Aug. 22
๐คฉ
Just received my new & improved $wcp dividend dis day. Dis deliciously decadent dividend directly deposited.
Along with a few others.
$cj $1,200
$pey $220
$sgy $400
$tve $250
$wcp $608
Bonne journรฉe de Montrรฉal ๐
Today $cve hit a 52-week high.
I'm holding here. I think they'll have more upside when they confirm that they've hit there debt target sometime later this year.
Oil is up $2.11 to $80.26 right now.
There are people whining out there that the o&g stocks are underperforming. Blah blah blah. They're getting 4 million likes for those posts.
We need this $80 price for longer than 15 minutes. I'm looking at those upcoming Q1/24 ER. $$$$ ๐คฉ
#1
Greg Taylor, Chief Investment Officer, Purpose Investments
$wcp
- one of his favorites
- close to being debt free
- that cash will be given to SH
- should be on everyone's radar on playing energy
- great resources in Kaybob area
- nice dividend that they're committed too
Today was Canada's GDP day.
I'm off to add to Get Dad Pizza day by rescuing him. Will post the winners to our Oct. Charity Contest tonight.
I wonder if CCO โฌ๏ธ8% was enough to move someone into the top 5?
Nov Charity Contest is up. Am I spending my $gxe or $pne dividend? ๐
KSA is reminding everyone that moving oil from $90 to $80 in a very short time, just makes them more resolute. It's a long game that they'll win.
My preferred range is still $80-$90. Something that's good for everyone.
Now back to the ERs. $meg is today.
$bte
Has been granted permission to buyback 10% of its public float from U.S. Market. Usually a max of 5% is allowed.
Average volume in the US is 9.8M vs 4.5M in ๐จ๐ฆ
Maybe they can start to buy blocks of shares from Juniper who are in the US. An idea.
#1
$sgy $sgy.to lots of great news ๐ค
- sale of non-core assets for $37.4M
- applied against debt
- now below phase 2 debt target of $250M
- $52M of fcf (after base dividend) annually
- dividend โฌ๏ธ from a monthly $0.04 to $0.0433/share paid on Aug 15 ๐
3 stocks that I've held since 2020. Never sold or trimmed.
Unrealized Gains:
$cj.to $61.5k
$cpg.to $66.4k
$wcp.to $72.7k
All pay a nice
#dividends
so why sell them just to fill JT & Legault pockets?
Selling & buying another stock would cost me like 25%.
โค๐จ๐ฆ Energy
#1
$su $su.to
- adj funds from operations $2.7B
- $689M in buybacks, $679M in dividend
- upstream production 741.9k boe/d
- completed all major planned maintenance across all refineries, 394.4k boe/d 85% utilization
- completed sale of UK E&P. $607M net
$cve
- reduced debt last quarter by $900M
- now $1.1B from $4B target
- when it happens, from 50% to 100% returned to SH
- IMHO too compete with $su $imo, I see the dividend at least doubled
- has refining
- growing the business
Received approval for a new NCIB starting July 2, 2024 for 70.1M shares.
Old NCIB ending June 28 2024 was for 68.4M, of which 55.3M was repurchased
Returning 50% fcf to SH.
#1
$meg Q1/24 ER
"Megnificent" - BeegJJ
- bitumen production 104k bbls/d
- fcf $217M
- ffo $329M
- revenue $1.364B
- net earnings $98M
- net debt US$687M
- at net debt US$600M, 100% fcf returned to SH
- expected in Q3/24 ๐คฉ
#1
@ericnuttall
was on BNN
- market is fundamentally tight
- demand has been exceeding expectations
- pressures on supply growth
- effectiveness of the OPEC+ cuts
- the market is ahead of itself by 2 months
- there's a $2-$3 political premium now
- bullish on the outlook on oil
#1
@ericnuttall
was on Marketcall
His top 3 picks
1) $pd
- his first services company
- been anti ofs for over a year
- focus on ROC would mean capex wouldn't go up as much historically
- extremely attractive here
- was at 4x debt to ebitda
- deleveraging
(cont)
From 2014-2020 I was fully invested in o&g stocks & took the daily beatings
So I don't apologize for these great o&g up days. Metals also had a great day. In all my portfolio added $20k
#oil
has permission to pause here at $90. Great price for everyone. ๐
Dividends tomorrow.
#1
Rick Rule, President CEO, Rule Investment Media was on Marketcall
- sees a rebound of interest in both industrial materials & precious metals
- also bullish on energy
So
@ericnuttall
on
@marketcall
#6
Top Picks
$meg.to 30% fcf, buyback 42% shares next year, 120% upside
$bte.to had 9 of the best 10 wells, Clearwater, buyback 18% of shares next year, 40% fcf, 197% upside
$tve.to great purchase, 44% fcf, 12% buybacks, 4% yield, 195% upside
#1
@ericnuttall
on marketcall.
- KSA has 80% of revenues from oil
- there's will & intent on KSA on their cuts
- wants a fair price for oil
- KSA "Vision 2030" is an ambitious growth plan
- global inventories falling now to year end more than the SPR
Take a look at those numbers this morning! ๐คฉ
WCS
C$90.77
Differential $81.04 - $67.07 = US$13.97. ๐๐๐
WTI โฌ๏ธ$0.35 to $81.39
Those Q1/24 ER are going to be amazing!
I โค๐จ๐ฆ Energy
$bte
Forget about my radar. How about in my portfolio?
Down from $5.50 to $4.00 for me.
As Elton sings....Don't let the Baytex go down on me. ๐
Bonjour de Montrรฉal ๐
#1
An analyst at RBC says $cve is unloved & oversold (i.e. too cheap)
- most compelling near-term buying opportunity among ๐จ๐ฆ oil majors
- mostly because of share price underperformance
- operational & financial results will establish improve momentum as 2024 unfolds (cont)
After 18 years of investing I've learned (not much)
I never buy at the low for a stock. That occurs after I've bought it
I never sell at the top for a stock. That occurs after I've sold it
Live with that fact and you & market will get along. I have!
Bonjour de Montrรฉal ๐
$cve
- cheap
- money to SH will soon double when they hit the debt target
- this makes it a strong buy for growth & income investors
- generates a lot of fcf
- little to no market respect
Good morning
@ericnuttall
. It has happened! Our first 100% fcf being returned to SH by our ๐จ๐ฆ Heavy Oil producer $cnq!
You have to wear a hat that highlights what you've been talking about. Talk about timing. Your on tomorrow's Marketcall.
I โค๐จ๐ฆ Energy! $$$
WCS
It's approaching that US$50. A differential of US$25.
C$68.27
Having one customer just doesn't work especially when you have such an important global commodity.
Friday came early.
@ericnuttall
on
@marketcall
.
#1
Has a beautiful I โค๐จ๐ฆ O&G sign
Global inventories down.
Seasonal strength in oil.
Gas to Oil switch.
$100 to $180 for the next 5-6 yrs.
Prefers buybacks.
Prefers Oil.
For NG, likes $arx.to $tou.to
#1
$tou ER Q3 2023
- cf $878.5M
- fcf $332.3M
- full year 2023 fcf $1.9B (2022 was $3.2B)
- net debt $879.8M 0.3x on annualized cf of $3.5B
- net earnings $274.7M
- closing of $bnp Nov 2023
- avg production 502,524 boepd
- OPEC+ could extend cuts to year end
- Energy Ignorance Assured (EIA) has oil in a glut till November election
- spreads showing screaming physical tightness
- how much tighter for physical oil before breaking the financial oil shorts?
It's 5:30am in Montreal. Deliciously decadent
#dividends
dutifully dropped directly in de account.
$cj.to $1,200
$sgy.to $200
$tve.to $125
$wcp.to $483
Dividends make cent$
Also bought yesterday 50k shares of $cor.v
Need some
#copper
to go with my o&g.
Good Morning ๐
#1
Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager, Ninepoint Partners
- expected oil to average $80 this year
- we remain at very healthy prices for producers
- WTI at $80-$85, Brent $85-$90, is reasonable from now to end of 2025
- demand is fine
Not posting Eric's $100 call. Everyone, I mean everyone would be happy with $80-$90 for the next while. Means the economy is solid.
The speed at which o&g balance sheets are becoming pristine is breathtaking at this price.
Buybacks & dividends are the place to be!
โค๐จ๐ฆ Energy!
Robert Tuttle, Bloomberg News
- TMX is finally happening (May 1)
- first shipment is 550k barrels from $su to Sinochem in China
- 2nd shipment to a refiner in China
- oil will be going to the U.S. West Coast, almost immediately
- was built to access Asia & to diversify
Hey dad what do you think about ordering a New Yorker steak? Close your eyes if you agree. ๐
A pleasant evening was had by all.
2 New Yorkers, a hamburger steak & salmon for the sister-in-law.
Bonjour de Montrรฉal
I'm a big fan of
@jim_duffus
. Here goes. For every retweet I'll donate $10 to
@CrohnsColitisCA
. The minimum is 1k & max = next $tou.to special dividend.
I'll use my June $cj.to to pay the 1k. The extra will be sent when $tou announces.
I want the word to be spread. Oh ya! TY.
drug hangover over and bowels hurt from the cramping.
Everyone in my family is/was diabetic, except me, I got disease about 25 years ago.
There is no cure, if you get it, its yours for life.
It's terrible when it acts up, please support the
@CrohnsColitisCA
@getgutsycanada