Shipyard Capital @CapitalShipyard Twitter profile

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

1. Some excerpts from my Q2 letter, explaining why all cryptocurrencies go to zero To begin with, trustless fair exchange is provably impossible:

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

It's true that $CVNA was a massively unprofitable used car dealer run by an ex-convict, but if you looked beneath the surface, the unit economics turned out to be bad

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

Can't wait for the FTX estate trustee to redeem $1 billion of USDT and then puzzle over why the Tether wire arrives from the account of a Latvian cellular repair shop

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

So now $NFLX is at 21x earnings, but that assumes the amortization of intangibles is correct If the $32B of intangibles should amortize by an additional 10% per year, the PE is closer to 58x How do smart bulls think about this?

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

Guys, how perfectly did I nail this?

Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

Can't wait for the FTX estate trustee to redeem $1 billion of USDT and then puzzle over why the Tether wire arrives from the account of a Latvian cellular repair shop

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

Every Japanese company: "Acme Co. operates automobile dealerships and associated other ventures" Then you look at the segment breakout, and 90% of EBIT is from "other", which turns out to be selling bridal gowns

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

@Upper20sStCap Remember that guy who multi-bagged his fund buying CDS in the GFC and then wrote a peaceout retirement letter to LPs ranting about the curative power of hemp products? I'd write the Rothbardian version of that letter

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

2. "Any real world crypto use case you have ever been pitched has trusted intermediaries hidden somewhere" "And if your use cases are things that don't offend regulators, there is no benefit to running a costly duplicative blockchain"

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

What in god's name does this mean? $COIN

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

If SBF screwed up the world's most profitable money laundering operation by taking directional bets, it'll fit the pattern of so much other dumb crime: guy driving $20M of cocaine gets pulled over because he decided to do 75 in a 55

Data Finnovation

@DataFinnovation

2 years

@CapitalShipyard Thats possible but tusd dont really trade and a lot were minted to binance. So if its sbf they were minting to someone elses exchange and then redeeming back to themselves. Ok. Its easier for me to believe sbf provided outsourced banking services. But yes both possible.

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

Something I didn't get until recently is that if your biz has first world banking and third world banking, it's not enough that you have no interest in money laundering, you have to actively avoid the very persuasive crooks who will approach you with irresistible business deals

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

@cobie @lawmaster What's going on with payroll?

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

3. Could Bitcoin's conspicuous uselessness as a medium of exchange make it a good store of value? No. Bitcoin's "21 million coin limit" is a myth, and its security model has a number of fatal flaws:

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

1. Today Shipyard and Cedar Creek filed a 13D disclosing an 11% holding in $ROYTL and calling on Bank of New York Mellon (the Trustee) to take action or face a vote to be removed cc @eriksen_tim Our letter is Exhibit #2 in this filing:

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

5. "If you ever establish a crypto utopia with its own Leviathan for enforcing contracts, you'll have reinvented a *country*, at which point you can save money by going back to spreadsheets"

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

3 years

Celsius taking out the equivalent of Craigslist ads to borrow rent money?

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

4 years

Our brave policemen pulling a lone surfer out of the ocean

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

Now my friend runs a successful biz and has scruples, but imagine if you ran a failing fund and had fewer scruples, and some honey tongued allocator came to you with a little real estate deal that promised to boost your fund's track record This stuff must be everywhere in crypto

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

I expect the Merge to be bad for crypto because--let's face it--with less Proof of Work, there is less occult computery stuff for people to talk excitedly about It's now much more obviously a bunch of useless digital Pogs just sitting there

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

3 years

1. $ROYTL Pacific Coast Royalty Trust Highly illiquid picocap that you can only buy via brokers who clear through GSEC I think it's a 10-to-20 bagger with a near term catalyst Disclosure: LONG

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

4. What about Ethereum? Sorry, MEV dooms it to centralization What about altcoins? Nope: "All attempts to wriggle out of the security trilemma are barren"

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

3 years

1. Bell Equipment ( $JSEBEL) is a management buyout that got away from management. The plan, put together in the depths of 2020 COVID panic, was to tender for the company at R10 per share, at the time a premium to the share price (Disclosure: long)

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

Various friends who dabble in crypto have been asking if XYZ coin will be ok No, they're all going to zero

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

4 years

$UBER is a buy because of the "Rule of Forty" Sales growth (negative 22%) + Operating margin (negative 28%) = less than negative 40%

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

6. Crypto's noble aim--to liberate commerce from government force--confuses "ought" with "is" We *ought* to have commerce without the threat of violence, but this *is* provably impossible TradFi works well *because* of state force All crypto goes to zero.

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

9 months

My CPA used to charge me $1,000 for personal taxes and now wants to charge $3,300. I have three K-1s and a single member LLC that receives a management fee and incentive allocation Stupid of me to just do the taxes myself?

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

3 years

Something nobody is talking about: 60% of Huobi's exchange business is Russia They don't say it directly, but you can piece it together from their filings And Russia is just starting its crackdown on crypto

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

A friend who does lending in Mexico described how he was approached by a very pedigreed family office who proposed a series of deals that would have been riskless from my friend's perspective, and quite lucrative, and it gradually dawned on him what was afoot

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

Article out this morning reporting that Celsius had $500M in the Luna Ponzi, but withdrew it all before the collapse Guess I now need to learn about Lido:

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

There's about $130B of real money supporting $830B of crypto market capitalization, so the best case scenario is that the space recovers 16 cents on the dollar There will be fraud and hacks and missing reserves on the way down, so probably more like 10 cents on the dollar

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

4 years

@hkuppy Yup. We frequently have days with zero deaths here. Only like 5% of ICU beds have COVID patients. It's tropical sun every day. But...close the beaches.

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

3 years

@joekelly100 @JWWeatherman_ How can that be done with $BTC, given the possibility of cross-exchange arbitrage? Seems if would be hideously expensive for the spoofer

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

4 years

If I could know one thing about $AMZN, it would be: What percent of AWS is sold to, or resold by, companies that are not profitable? I bet it's a lot

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

4 years

1. US #natgas rigs hit 85, vs. a low of 82 in 2016 Rig productivity is higher today, but base decline is higher, Appalachia inventory is closer to exhaustion, balance sheets are tattered, and capital markets are not as open

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 months

Ok, long thread on why I think the R53 $JSEBEL offer is a stalking horse offer designed to fail, and why I think minorities can vote it down to receive a higher offer of around ~R100

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

3 years

I just filed on 9.7% of this.

Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

3 years

1. $ROYTL Pacific Coast Royalty Trust Highly illiquid picocap that you can only buy via brokers who clear through GSEC I think it's a 10-to-20 bagger with a near term catalyst Disclosure: LONG

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

3 years

POV: you're some sort of microcap IT integrator and RenTech shows up as your top holder You finally get their legal department on the phone to ask, um, why they own the stock "Your stock price is 51% correlated to hourly butter prices in Bangladesh this week"

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

3 years

Poor Elon

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

Celsius stopped taking retail deposits in late April. Celsius was a large feeder fund for the Luna Ponzi. Did Celsius trigger the UST depeg?

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

1. Ok, a little skeleton writeup to try to flush out a bear case $GROW.ML Growens is a US-based, best in class SaaS product, masquerading as a stodgy Italian HoldCo (discl: long)

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

3 years

The SBF inability to say that FTX has not issued CP to Tether was bizarre Why spend hundreds of millions naming stadiums, when you could dispel one of crypto's biggest controversies with a single word?

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

@patio11 I'm still stuck on this part: "Hi Sam, we know this is silly, but compliance is making us fill out this DDQ. What's a good email address for reaching your CFO?" SBF: "Uh we don't have a CFO." "Right, yes, of course"

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

"Ok, we received your USDT. You should get a wire from our bank-related account this afternoon" "You meant to say 'bank account', right?" "...." "...."

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

Mass unfollowing the crypto space. Developing an "enlightened layman" understanding of crypto's technical underpinnings made for a fascinating couple of years Cryptography is cool, but blockchain is an utter failure. Not a single use case beyond fleeting regulatory arbitrage.

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

Need FinTwit help: A friend trades European gas, essentially from his living room, and has become such a whale that his existing clearing firm can't accommodate him He needs to take the relationship elsewhere. Who should he call?

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

"0.3x TBV, 1% ROIC, profitable two years out of five, earned 10x its best ever EBIT in 2021....Japanese steel processor. Nice."

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

One investment thesis I find compelling is the housing bull case. Another one I find compelling is the housing bear case.

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

3 years

Weiqiao Textile Company SEHK:2698 I own this thing Giant DA/CapEx spread from legacy textile biz is 33% yield to equity Earnings are really from a power plant FCFY ex-WC is 60% (!!) 4.5x market cap in net cash (!!) 8% div

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

3 years

After 13 years and $800B in market cap, why no reduction in $BTC vol?

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

5 months

Letter to $ROYTL unitholders

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

The Steelman case for SBF keeping Daniel Friedberg on the payroll was that it was loyalty to a scrappy early hire Well, we now know that Friedberg was hired *specifically* for his fraud skillset:

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

Addendum: since @dlancashi and I are discussing "fairness" in the comments, here is the definition I use when thinking about crypto

Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

@dlancashi In the context of digital consensus mechanisms, this is the definition of "fairness" I have in mind:

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

Ok, maybe it won't be a cellular repair shop in Latvia, maybe it will be an industrial building in Sha Tin

Data Finnovation

@DataFinnovation

2 years

the tether folks look to have bought out anson chan's dead husband's estate's bank holding company, after the office moved to a dump in the new territories, and then launched a tiny stablecoin via maryland holdcorp my head hurts

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 months

SPAC story in zero words

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

@SBF_FTX Isn't making selective payments out of an insolvent entity fraudulent conveyance?

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

4 years

It appears Puerto Rico's outgoing governor @wandavazquezg was bluffing when she said citizens would be fined and/or arrested for not wearing masks in public Below is her executive order. Nowhere does it mandate masks in public.

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

3 years

1. People keep asking me about the prank R10 offer from the Bell family, so figured I'd do a thread explaining why this $JSEBEL deal isn't happening

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

A reminder that if you don't do your banking via VPN on a burner laptop inside a Faraday Cage, with a two-of-three multi sig with your weed dealer and your confused aunt, you aren't Future of Financing.

Peter Todd

@peterktodd

2 years

FYI I've confirmed that this is real and not a Twitter hack via a mutual friend. IIUC he used Gentoo as his desktop and didn't keep different activities separated. So backdoored software is one of many ways this could happen; he may not have been targeted. Use @QubesOS people.

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

1 year

$WMT attributing a shift in food buying patterns to GLP-1s

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

3 years

So everyone is talking about how lending $USDC on $COIN creates a security But the quote is "they consider Lend to *involve* a security" What if the security is $USDC?

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

Another implication of today's audit promise from Tether is that the auditor they'd supposedly engaged in July 2021 refused to sign off on the books

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

4 years

I made them chase me in their dune buggy for a quarter mile. Somewhere some amused onlookers have a video of the chase.

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

Would love to see this from more American management teams

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

Payment processors are the hidden infrastructure behind crypto. There are vastly fewer of them than there are banks, which is why the story of crypto's collapse will have a lot to do with when and where specific payment processors ditch the space

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

3 years

4x EV/EBITDA and 5x earnings for a newspaper plus a growing cable channel Tempting...?

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

3 years

I understand that there are fraudy Chinese ADRs, frothy Chinese tech unicorns, etc. But what's the reason for div-paying Chinese blue chip midcaps to trade below cash?

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

3 months

Buyout at R53 a few years later.

Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

3 years

11. Summary: -Family wanted to buy at R10 -Chairman said worth R37+ -Deal premium on 30d VWAP suggests R16 offer -Public peers suggest R48 to R86 -M&A comps suggest R60 -More than mkt cap in excess inventory -If no deal happens, you own it at 3.5x earnings into a mining rebound

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

I even got the device right!

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

14% APY for USDT, 32% for USD, both on Bitfinex So you should be able to borrow USDT, redeem it for USD, and lend the USD to capture the spread Unless redemption is not possible...

Patrick McKenzie

@patio11

2 years

Bitfinex continues to want your dollar-denominated liquidity very, very badly. (Not cherry picking; I just periodically sanity check it. Well, for certain values of sanity.)

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

3 years

1. Ok, I own some $RET Reitmans It's a retailer of plus-sized women's apparel in Canada Messy situation, so I'm hoping someone can explain what I might be missing

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

Celsius, with $17B of retail deposits, still advertises LUNA and UST

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

I post about deep value stocks so that nobody ever accuses me of this

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

1 year

$ETX.PL Euro-tax Nice little picocap for someone who trades Poland in their PA Helps int'l companies get tax refunds in Poland, can imagine that being moaty. 100% div payout, 11% yield, alas a PFIC

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

3 years

The Bell family is finally out with their offer for $JSEBEL: R10, which is a *discount* to the R14.88 market price today No irrevocables signed by Allan Gray, Sanlam, NinetyOne, Ivan Clark, or us. So not a single large shareholder likes the deal This is not a real offer

JSE_SENS

@JSE_SENS

3 years

BEL Joint Firm Intention Announcement and Withdrawal of Cautionary

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

1. Crypto payments only have low cost if the sender neglects security. For equivalent levels of security, crypto is strictly more expensive than TradFi because a trustless payment rail can't benefit from returns to scale in centralized enforcement.

SBF

@SBF_FTX

2 years

16) Blockchains allow anyone to create a wallet and use it to send and receive tokens--including USD pegged stablecoins. Those payments take seconds to process, cost fractions of a penny, and are finalized in less than a minute. No long wait, no account balance uncertainty.

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

1 year

$SONG (Music Licensing Inc.) a wild one Nevada-based but relocating to St. Kitts, relisting in Jamaica Claim to be music licensing outfit (never heard of them), $800M AR fully reserved $2.4K cash balance, audited by firm that specializes in crowdsourced startups CEO is 24

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

Cannot believe the $ROYTL trustee just assumed my gender in an SEC filing

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

4 years

US #natgas rigs down 3 to make a new low at 68 Oil up 1 to 181

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

"Dad, why did you pay $60,000 for an entry in a slow database?" I thought it was money "Could you use it for payments?" No "Did it have a security model befitting a store of value?" No "Was all that knowable at the time?" Yes

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

1 year

Adam Neumann did another real estate startup after WeWork

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

"So SHA256 is like folding a string so that it ends up a vector in super high dimensional space, then the nonce is incremented..." That sounds cool Proof of Stake just sounds like "The guy with the most Pogs is in charge of distributing new Pogs", basically a drinking game

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

"Mockchain: an append-only ledger on which TradFi bros demonstrate priority by being first to joke about, e.g., FTX's top lawyer being an ex poker cheat or, e.g., Tether's owners running a crypto hedge fund and being connected to every European VAT fraud nexus"

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

3 years

The FTX thing breaks my brain There are, let us say, 20,000 lawyers capable of being your GC 19,998 of them were not involved in brazen exchange fraud Of the other two, one already works for Tether Why on god's green earth would you hire the other one?

Bitfinex'ed 🔥🐧 Κασσάνδρα 🏺

@Bitfinexed

3 years

FTX GC: Former GC for Poker Cheating Website Ultimate Bet/Excapsa. Bitfinex & Tether GC: Former Lawyer for Poker Cheating Website Ultimate Bet/Excapsa. Wonder why SBF allegedly sends billions of dollars to Tether executives, that are under criminal investigation for bank fraud.

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

(rough math, ignores efficiency losses, etc.) ~3K MT of fuel oil for Brazil to China voyage = 126K gigajoules = 36GWh Megapack = 4 MWh, so need 9K Megapacks Megapack is the size of an ISO container, containership carries ~15K TEUs So...half your cargo would be batteries

Jason DeBolt ⚡️

@jasondebolt

2 years

Tesla should design Megapacks to fit inside shipping containers to help large shipping vessels become fully electric. Gantry crane battery swaps cotainers into cargo hold. Replaces dirty heavy oil diesel electric generators used in large ships that emit CO2 of 70k cars.

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

1 year

Looking at $OGUNB.SS Ogunsen AB (100% ROIC, always profitable, decades of growth, 13% div yield, 100% payout) and remembering that I have no idea how to think about recruiting agencies Are they good businesses? Or do they die, like law firms, the second some top talent leaves?

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

What? Anyone understand how this works?

@intel_jakal

2 years

But its nothing compared to this....I mean wtf....risk free yield 45% on USDT??? #tron #ponzi #fraud #stablecoin #shitcoins #tether

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

I am once again asking why Twitter can't write a script to delete any tweet that: 1. Contains a cashtag, and 2. Contains a link to a Discord channel, and 3. Is identical to tweets from other accounts It would instantly remove millions of bots and make FinTwit search usable

Dipa

@rosetraders1

2 years

$daln Don't miss the next move in a few hours..~ 🔗

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

1. Ok, mini $JSEBEL thread for people who already own it (it's too illiquid for newcomers to bother with) Summary: we probably get a delisting buyout offer at a ~50% premium within the next few months

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

Blockchain can't store arbitrary items. They can store *representations* of arbitrary items, but those representations only have meaning if recognized by trusted third parties. NFTs are a good example; you don't own that monkey jpeg unless a court says so

Samuel Lee

@svrnco

2 years

@CapitalShipyard I'm pretty sure you're misunderstanding the paper and in fact didn't even skim it. There's a section, "What is a trusted third party?", that states a system that may store arbitrary items is one--i.e., a blockchain fulfills the role of a trusted third party.

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

4 years

Today I called for the resignation of Bell's disgraced board. A reconstituted board should put the company up for sale.

Bell Equipment must seek a higher bid – an open letter from a shareholder

Minority shareholders are not happy.

www.moneyweb.co.za

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

There's a fun parallelism in crypto bros appending entropically expensive Merkle hashes to prove the arrow of time, while TradFi bros prove the same thing by making jokes that subsequently come true E.g., "Tether prolly operates out of warehouses"

Data Finnovation

@DataFinnovation

2 years

@CapitalShipyard at least its on the top floor!

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

Ha! The reason grocery stores offer cash back as an option is that it solves a working capital problem for them. Cool.

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

Celsius made its announcement (about the cessation of retail deposits) on April 11 The CEL token fell 30% over the next few days:

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

3 years

Downside of being called Shipyard:

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

20 days

Dr. Sichuan

@DrSichuan

21 days

@eriksen_tim has been devouring $ROYTL shares from the retail investors who decided to quit.

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

4 years

Here is why #natgas in 2020 is different from nat gas in 2016: $AR, formerly the biggest grower, will not increase production just because the strip recovers a little

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

1. Time for a silly FinTwit story In 2016 a friend in Puerto Rico was struggling to launch an equipment finance business. I made a fake email address and spent weeks interesting him in a potential financing deal Eventually I agreed to send him the pitch deck...

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

@orthereaboot Imagine the infighting for the last 10-20bps that would make sure it doesn't round down to 5%

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

4 years

1. It would cost $5-$10M/day to 51% attack $BTC But in a multi-coin world, a DDoS attack that only publishes headers would require only 1-10% of hashpower and could be funded with less than $1M if timed correctly

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Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

If living in a cap markets tax haven has taught me one thing, it's that every undiscovered alpha leak is actually already known to at least one 25yo hermit, who is happy to position himself for the event without posting about it on Twitter

Flood

@ThinkingUSD

2 years

All these onchain sleuths and not one person could figure out FTX didn’t have the deposits? Useless fr

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