I’m excited to share the research and analysis we have done on $SOWG, and why we initiated a large position in our portfolio.
While Sow Good is currently growing more than triple digits year over year with improving profitability, we believe the underlying performance of the
$AEP.V The value of any business is all the future cash flow discounted back to the present. Yes, Atlas is a cyclical business in a cyclical industry. The best time to buy those is when they look expensive, says Peter Lynch.
I don’t buy large positions in micro-caps in general,
For all those criticizing $Save longs, I’ll argue that the outcome doesn’t change the facts about the decision. If one were to make many such bets with similar odds, you’ll probably do very well. That’s why position sizing is important.
Decisions shouldn’t be judged solely based
1/4
$CDLX: Back-of-napkin math. The upside is still there; the only thing that changed is certainty, as the market expected a top-line beat. However, with a 50% haircut, this thing looks juicy again. I will add over 20% to my position.
$CDLX is quietly down 40% from the recent high. Imo, it will only be a matter of time until people realize what a wonderful business this is and will be. Yes, it does have risks, but it can produce fat cash flows for years to come. No competition, nice moat!
$CDLX What a day! The shoutout goes to
@Swany407
. I’ve already received over a 1000x return on his subscription! Highly recommend for anyone interested in anything $CDLX. He probably knows as much as the CEO, not kidding!
Sorry for you, Austin. Now you’ll have to start
If you're looking for an inflection investment, don’t overlook $CDLX. Yes, the stock is up 100% plus in the last week, but the Amex signing is so impactful the market hasn’t fully priced it in yet. The impact of signing Amex is incredibly valuable, with very little assumption,
I’ve got to give myself credit for what I did with $CVNA. From initially being emotionally upset and unable to face this ticker, to eventually buying back my full positions at 3x higher! Price anchoring can be very costly.
How I see the $aep.v transaction. Not sure why the stock is not up more since the news.
I think this acquisition added $40-$60 million to $aep.v intrinsic value.
@permastonks
@Arregius
How much cash have they invested in this transaction? $2 million in stock and let’s assume a 20% equity stake; that’s a total of $7.2 million.
Let’s assume a 10% interest rate on the debt, which results in a $2 million annual interest payment. So, taking the 2022 net income from
So Chris Suh the new $V CFO who used to be a Directer for $CDLX just bought a large position in $CDLX in his Visa portfolio 🤔
Thanks
@XmrcNay
for finding and sharing this.
For anyone wondering why $CDLX is up 50% pre-market, they guided for high-teen growth for Q1. Additionally, they signed $AMX, which has the potential to be larger than its entire current business. Due to its capital-light nature, it should all fall down to the bottom line!
Even
1/4
$CDLX: Back-of-napkin math. The upside is still there; the only thing that changed is certainty, as the market expected a top-line beat. However, with a 50% haircut, this thing looks juicy again. I will add over 20% to my position.
$CVNA people need to separate the business from its debt. What is a business that is producing $500 - $700 million EBITDA that can easily double over the next couple of years, with a moat that will continue widening and a differentiating product worth?
Whatever multiple you put
$CVNA The party continues? Looking at the latest sales data, it looks like there is at least 10% QoQ growth in units on similar inventory levels. This should imply the same or even better GPU. At this pace, they should easily earn more than $1 billion in Adjusted EBITDA for the
Sold 60% of my position today $CVNA
Here's some back of the napkin math: If they reach 2 million units sold in the next 8-10 years (which is a high but achievable bar) and earn $1500 EBITDA per sale (I don’t feel comfortable underwriting more than that), that’s $3b billion
Today, Brad Jacobs announced that QXO has raised $620 million in new private investment and added investor Jared Kushner as an independent director.
Announcement:
The bright side: my $CDLX hedge puts will print tomorrow 🙈
Definitely an overreaction, to say the least, although management's lack of clear communication doesn't help much.
If this overnight action persists tomorrow, I'll use the proceeds to buy long-dated leaps.
The company
Housing is an easy long here IMO. It's gotten wrecked over the last few weeks, but the market is backwards-looking. Rate cuts will explode this sector, and you have Biden talking about incentivizing as well. $BLDR $DFH
Any counter arguments I might be missing?
$WOSG nice day today, my 3rd largest position. This thing is just starting to run IMO.
It got destroyed which was a de-rating and has opportunity to recapture that. Earnings going up, will get additional upside from Roberto Coin, plus multiple re-rating and potential for
A very interesting listen on the current advertising industry and the changes Google will implement in 2024 with Cookies. This makes me even more bullish on $CDLX as they literally have access to one of the best first party datasets out there, purchasing data from 180 million
INTERVIEW: The Changing Advertising Technology Landscape w/
@BLyons151
and Justin Ruiss from BWG Strategy
- Google's deprecation of cookies + its impact
- Winners and losers in a cookieless world
- Why is first-party data so important?
- Discussions on TikTok, $AMZN, $SNAP, $TTD
$CDLX I guess when you suck as an investor your best trades are hedges 🙈
Sold out my full hedge in the morning for a 1100% overnight profit, added another 20% to my position.
@IndraStocks
$AXP has the highest number of high-end customers compared to any bank $CDLX currently has. This makes it much more attractive for advertisers. You could argue that ARPU will be much higher in that channel.
Thanks,
@macrokurd
. Nice bottle; looking forward to tasting it.
The saddest part: I had a very large position in $CVNA shares and options, but I sold way too early 🙈🥲
At least I get a nice whiskey.
Looking forward to the 2024 call; let’s make it back-to-back 😜
$XPEL Opened a position this week, all the people saying if it drops more they will buy tells me time to buy is now lol
Have been killed every time I buy with incoming weakness 🙈
Still have room to add if it does drop further.
Today, I officially became a $BLDR shareholder and made it a full position!
$CVNA taught me a valuable lesson not to price anchor. I’ve been following the company for a while now and couldn’t get myself to pull the trigger as the stock is up exponentially over the last couple of
4/4
Earnings Negatives:
Didn't achieve a blowout top line.
Didn't provide blowout guidance.
Ripple 2nd payment dispute.
All in all, the stock should have traded down, but a 50% drop feels like a bit of an overreaction in my opinion.
There’s an old saying in real estate:
‘No one has gotten rich by collecting rent’
I think the same can be said for stocks; look at the asset first, the earnings second.
It’s better to buy a high-quality asset with a higher multiple than vice versa.
When you find a
@LukeWolgram
Just like real estate, people think the higher the cap rate the better the deal. Liquidity is worth money! Also you can leverage them.
For me, I would only buy a micro cap if it offers real long term upside. Like $xpel $aep.v companies that have the potential to become large
@stockgutter
It’s not easy to predict, as almost any candy can go into the dry freeze candy category in the long term. But based on my calculations and channel checks, I estimate that Five Below is currently over 50% of $SOWG revenue and is growing very fast organically. I think they will do
The market clearly thinks $crox is fad.
The company has top management that has transformed the Buisness and brand quality over that last couple of years.
The company is a cash generator, and is growing aggressively, with top of industry margins.
The market clearly thinks $crox is fad.
The company has top management that has transformed the Buisness and brand quality over that last couple of years.
The company is a cash generator, and is growing aggressively, with top of industry margins.
Sold 60% of my position today $CVNA
Here's some back of the napkin math: If they reach 2 million units sold in the next 8-10 years (which is a high but achievable bar) and earn $1500 EBITDA per sale (I don’t feel comfortable underwriting more than that), that’s $3b billion
@safilaw
@Cobratate
And what about the 2000 years before the 75 years? If you want to go back in history, go back to the beginning.
God gave the land of Israel to the Jewish nation for all their generations to come. It is stated in every holy book, including the first Bible, second Bible, and the
Portfolio Update.
$CDLX - already a 3 bagger
$RMBL - my current best idea, biggest position on cost.
$rh - another special business I want to own for a very long time
$CROX - $200 - $300 by 2025.
My next best ideas are below, Don't currently own them due to the opportunity cost
@LukeWolgram
Yes, they are. However, there’s one party in the value chain that hates them and would do anything possible to get rid of them, which is the merchants. Not sure what that means long term, but it definitely makes it vulnerable if someone can figure out a way to transact money with
So $CDLX sold 3.9 million shares today to complete its $50 million offering. Today's volume was only 4 million, and the stock is only down 10%. Seems to be lots of buyers out there, and not to many sellers.
That’s why I’m interested in $VTY a clear capital allocation strategy, allocating 50% of profits for buybacks or special dividends. The other 50% will be reinvested with a 40% ROCE. What more can you ask for?
@LukeWolgram
Correct, they are redeveloping existing affordable housing homes built in the 50s and 60s. Adam one of the largest shareholders shared the below to me.
You bring up an interesting point. From my perspective, I think the right way to look at Vistry is not from the perspective
@greentardscycle
@AMMOqq
$AEP.V has a lot more upside potential with a lower base and lower valuation. $BLDR is more diversified and established. Ultimately, I think both will do well, but I have more then double the size position in $AEP.V
@stockgutter
They will definitely need to enter the space eventually to catch up, but $SOWG is currently the market leader (with a wide margin) and is the known brand. It’s very hard to predict how the industry will shape up exactly in the future, but it’s difficult to see how they are not
@LukeWolgram
They have a traditional home building business, which they are slowly winding down, or only doing high ROIC projects.
I assume you’re asking about the partnership business. Vistry never owns the land; it’s more of a service partnership business.
The local authority owns and
$RH Garry is getting a lot of hate on here lately
Isn’t Garry the ultimate outsider, as described in the book?
A visionary with a long-term focus mindset.
An understanding of capital allocation and appreciation for buybacks, especially when done heavily and opportunistically
Let’s get more people shorting $CVNA into earnings, have any of the short sellers taken the time to track quarterly sales data that is easy to find, or are you smart enough that it’s not necessary? lol
I’ve got to give myself credit for what I did with $CVNA. From initially being emotionally upset and unable to face this ticker, to eventually buying back my full positions at 3x higher! Price anchoring can be very costly.
Look at this weekly, this is after a 77% gap up on Friday. I've never personally witnessed a stock doubling in price, and all the longs doubling up with it.
Anyone have any thoughts on $CRCT Cricut?
It seems interesting. It’s a market leader in the home crafter’s niche. Profitable with no debt, there’s no reason revenue won’t grow over the coming years. They’ve also released all excess cash (around 30% of market capitalization) in
@LongHillRoadCap
Sorry for your loss, when my father passed someone shared with me a very powerful message that stayed with.
“A father's death is the most impactful day of a man’s life”
May he rest in peace
Am I missing something on $CDLX?
The earnings seemed fine, yes the guidance wasn’t the best. However, with a new bank partner and another one expected by year-end, along with all partners on new platforms by mid-2024, it sounds to me like 2024 will be a solid year, with
IMO this is the biggest risk $SAVE - $JBLU merger.
Yes, everyone is busy highlighting the 85% spread, and the chances of it closing are greater than the 25% the market is pricing.
However, I don’t think the chances are greater than 50%, and if it doesn’t close, $SAVE will
@LukeWolgram
Why would you learn something new just for the money, why not stay at what you like and are good at? Especially finance where the pay could be very nice
@rafacomp26
If only one, $CDLX! It has the potential to be the ultimate business: very wide moat, capital-light, high ROIC, and high organic growth! $CVNA is the best business in a bad industry.
@permastonks
@Arregius
How much cash have they invested in this transaction? $2 million in stock and let’s assume a 20% equity stake; that’s a total of $7.2 million.
Let’s assume a 10% interest rate on the debt, which results in a $2 million annual interest payment. So, taking the 2022 net income from
3) When something like this happens, face it, don't run away.
If I were able to get a clear picture in my head about its future, I would rebuy my position today.
In the long term, I believe this will make me a better investor.
What other lessons?
I now have the new user experience for Chase Offers as well, The pictures make a big difference, and the category feature is awesome.
@IndraStocks
@Swany407
$cdlx
3/4
The largest advertisers who spend over $1 million increased spending by over 15% (Shows they see the value).
New impressions are up as well, showing the impact from the new user experience with Chase.
I've been thinking about this for a while now, it seems like perfect timing to go long cannabis.
The industry is consolidating and acting more rationally, demand is growing like crazy. In New Jersey, near my office, four new dispensaries have opened in the last 18 months, each
If the idiot politicians ever federally legalize this the stocks with be the next AI trade! Daily Cannabis Use In the U.S. Has Surpassed Daily Alcohol Use for the First Time”
2/4
Earnings Positives:
Added Monzo Bank in the UK, which has over 8 million users and is growing.
Expecting to add at least one more bank by year-end.
All partners should be on the new user experience by mid-2024.
Thanks
@macrokurd
, Nice bottle!
Looking forward to winning again in 2024 with my $RMBL pick.
Btw, the timing couldn’t have been better with my $SAVE letdown today 😂
Cheers 🍻
$CDLX “Targeted advertising has exploded in popularity in recent years as advertisers seek to reduce waste by ensuring their campaigns are seen by customers most likely to spend”
Thinking about 2024, which mid to small-cap companies were affected by the recent downturn but managed to capitalize on the situation, and will emerge stronger than before?
For instance:
Executed an accretive acquisition at a discounted price.
Conducted a substantial buyback
@Mike10947310
@DLSermersheim
$SOWG’s biggest constraint is manufacturing capacity; everything they currently produce gets sold out. They currently have a 4 million run-rate, which is expected to increase to 30 million by the end of 2025. You’ll start seeing lots of new customers, marketing, and e-commerce
Returns since opening my partnership.
2022 - 25%
2023 YTD 110%
Total + 57.5%
Can’t complain, but it’s way to early to celebrate. This year can end either way tbh
@xavierjp__
@Cobratate
Hmm let’s think 🤔 actually let’s not go to far, in the Middle East how many millions of ppl where killed by there own leaders, where you going around protesting then? Where was all the love for the world then? Interesting
I personally know of over $1bill being withdrawn from signature over the weekend. Likely much more. If FED doesn't restore confidence tonight, can’t see how this is not a ripple effect down the market. $sbny
Anyone have any thoughts on $CRCT Cricut?
It seems interesting. It’s a market leader in the home crafter’s niche. Profitable with no debt, there’s no reason revenue won’t grow over the coming years. They’ve also released all excess cash (around 30% of market capitalization) in