Christopher Bloomstran @ChrisBloomstran Twitter profile | Pikagi

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Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

109,273

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1,089

Following

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Nothing here is advice. Drop the phone and slowly back away from the Twitter. Read a 10-K. It’s a profession, not a business. Disclosure:

I Ain’t Hard to Find

https://t.co/1eXXyZx1Cr

Joined August 2018

Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

5 years

Thanks to Patrick for prompting me to Twitter. Paraphrasing the immemorial words of Mr. Buffett, I suppose I’m now in the house...We’ll see if I do this more than 6 times in 6 years!

@patrick_oshag

Patrick OShaughnessy

5 years

My conversation with Chris Bloomstran, CIO of Semper Augustus on how to define quality in business - the capacity for re-investment - controlling distribution - making permanent sacrifices - the intricacies of Berkshire - proxy statements + incentives

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

3 years

I read your 2020 annual letter with interest, @chamath . Odd it was published in late May, but we’re all busy. Before commenting on this incredibly bad take of a comparison to Berkshire Hathaway, allow me to help you with some math. First, 1965 to 1974 is TEN years, not nine. 1/

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Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

4 years

Let’s get ready to tumble! Come Monday, $TSLA enters the S&P 500, as the world is aware. This is the one you will tell your grandkids about, or at least the new crop of investors, wondering what the bubble of 2020 was like. Tesla can be your example of the insanity....1/

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

2 years

Twitter departed the world of public companies just shy of its 9th birthday. To the question of who won and who lost, the answer should be obvious. From a start of $45 on 11/7/13 to Elon's buy this week at $54.20, the shareholder made 20.4%. That's cumulative. 2.1% per year. 1/

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Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

3 years

I see lots of student company write-ups and pitches. Most are better than yesterday's $3,000 ARK Price Target Report for $TSLA. In reading the report its clear the motivation is to promote a higher stock price. The fantasy involved is simply spectacular... 1/

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

3 years

For those that haven’t read Robinhood’s 360-page S-1 and subsequent registration amendment, some brief observations follow on some of the most egregious aspects of one of the most one-sided, enrich the insider casino offerings I’ve ever seen, and there have been some doozies. 1/

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Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

3 years

Upon further review, looks like you crowned yourself the next Mr. Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway in your past THREE annual letters, @chamath . Two weeks ago we had some fun digging in to your selected disclosure methodologies, didn't we? But oh my does it get even more bizarre. 1/

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

2 years

One of the finest athletic achievements ever seen. Extraordinary heart. 80 to 1 at post, the longest shot in the Derby. No room. Something like 14 lengths behind going into the stretch. Watch this clip at least 10 times. Flabbergasting. Wow, Rich Strike.

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

3 years

Who would believe that Tesla is now "worth" more than two Berkshire Hathaways? Today’s 8.5% gain added $106 billion in market cap, 2.3x Tesla’s annual REVENUE in a single day. Mr. Market now values the car company at $1.36 trillion, 29.5 times annual trailing revenues. Insane. 1/

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

3 years

Dear Cathie, I was surprised at the indignity of seeing a high-profile investor short your largest product, so sought to determine why. Examining the $ARKK June 30 Factsheet, it appears devoid of what some investors refer to as “fundamental data.” Important? Let's see...1/

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Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

4 years

The water is chummed. @elonmusk already hooked a whale, an endless supply of dumb money in the S&P committee that compelled its passive followers to buy $TSLA shares at any price, providing it the ongoing capital it needs to grow (because it doesn’t produce it internally)... 1/

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

2 years

Want entertainment? Read the Microstrategy recent 10-Q and Investor Day presentation. Jesus H. These guys took an UNLEVERAGED $500m revenue, $500m book value company earning 7% on equity to then BORROW $2.1 BILLION, sell $900m in shares, to purchase $3.2 BILLION of...BITCOIN. 1/

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

3 years

Lastly, I’d look into getting somebody to check your math before releasing your annual year-end letter next May. You control a lot of money and surely have resources. The picture of the jet is nice. Perhaps there's room at your shop for a fact checker?

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

2 years

AMDT Digital $HKD passes Facebook at $435 billion market cap. One more trading halt and resumption of trading and AMDT will be larger than Berkshire Hathaway. Why spend 57 years compounding when you can get there in two weeks? The casino is alive and well.

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

2 years

When Warren Buffett offers to buy your company and shakes your hand, the check will clear and the deal will get done. When Elon Musk offers to…

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

2 years

Where were you a year ago today when Planet Earth launched its first billionaire into space? And who could forget the very next day, when Virgin Galactic, then chaired by @chamath , filed to sell $500 million in common shares to the suckers, er, to the public? The Right Stuff. 1/

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Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

2 years

Elon’s 13.4% position in Tesla now matching the $44 billion purchase price for Twitter.

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

2 years

Wow. Financing secured with $25.5 billion of new debt. I haven’t seen the rate but at 5% the interest alone exceeds 2021 EBITDA and 88% of expected 2022 EBITDA. Go private at 9 times sales! Total paid in capital was $9 billion. Better grow fast. The question is: When’s the IPO?

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

2 years

Top four holdings. 78% all sell @CocaCola and @PepsiCo products.

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@BillAckman

Bill Ackman

2 years

. @CocaCola and @PepsiCo have caused more harm to global health than likely any other company. Just look at the correlation between diabetes/obesity and soft drink consumption. It is remarkable that the plaintiffs bar has not yet won a massive judgment against them.

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Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

2 years

In the beginning, Tesla was a dream. From that point to today, the company raised $32 billion in equity capital and earned a cumulative profit of $9 billion. Book value, firm equity, sums to $41 billion. The CEO has sold $40 billion of shares (all given as options), and counting.

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

2 years

FOMC hiked FF 0.25% on 3/21/00. S&P 500 up 2.56% that day. Gained 0.45% on the 22nd, 1.78% on the 23rd, and 0.01% on 3/24 to 1,547.26. That was the peak. Fed raised once more on 5/16/00 by 0.50%. By 10/9/02 the index declined 50%. FOMC hiked 0.5% today. S&P rose 2.99%. Good luck.

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Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

3 years

Berkshire Hathaway released its 3Q financials this morning. A few quick observations. Cash at $149.2B and share repurchases of $7.6B during 3Q and $20.2B through 9/30 will draw media headlines, but inflation is the real story, as is the case with so many companies of late. 1/

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

3 years

Brett @wintonARK , Your taking the time to reply is again appreciated. I was going to let @ARKInvest 's 2025 $TSLA $3,000 price target and your replies go but in thinking over the past several days a few of your answers just don’t resonate. Comments and a proposition follow...1/

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

3 years

Perspective. One more day like today and Tesla will be "worth" 2 Berkshires, despite BRK profit exceeding Tesla revenues. As of today, $TSLA is valued above the entire global auto industry, PLUS Uber, Lyft, Progressive, GEICO (if public), Allstate, Duke Energy & Dominion Energy.

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

2 years

Tether bleeding another $1.5 billion and $9 billion over the past week. The fraud of unaudited reserves will be readily apparent. Commercial paper? A lie. Treasuries? So far beyond Madoff. Who believes this nonsense? Massive Ponzi. If you are still in you get what you deserve.

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

2 years

Berkshire Hathaway’s market cap is back to larger than Tesla by $150 billion. A year ago Tesla was “worth” more than two Berkshires. Since then Tesla’s shares are down 59% while Berkshire’s are up 8%. At present, Berkshire’s annual profit equals 2/3 of Tesla’s annual revenues.

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

3 years

This is it. We have reached peak insanity. A Google search of, “Sol Price,” founder of FedMart and Price Club (Costco), mentor to Jim Sinegal, and retailing legend, turns up a page and a half of the price for Solana, evidently some 3rd-rate cryptocurrency. The world has gone mad.

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Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

3 years

Just realized Berkshire at $437,000 is precisely a 10-bagger from my initial $43,700 purchase in February 2000. With no dividends that’s 11.5% per year. For those that believe Berkshire & Mr.Buffett are “underperforming,” the S&P 500 total return over the same period is 6.7%. 1/

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Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

2 years

Elon does not have the cash to finance a $43 billion acquisition. He’s either provided cover for liquidating another sizable portion of extremely overvalued Tesla shares or will sell his Twitter position at large short-term gain. Mastery of both sides of the pump and the dump.

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Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

2 years

Capital Allocation, Silicon Valley Style. Myriad reasons for $META's 74% Faceplant, but consider the abuse of the shareholder for capital allocation gone haywire. 2017 was apparently the right time to initiate repos. EVERY share bought, by the firm, or anybody, is underwater. 1/

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

3 years

If you can maintain anywhere near the 19% advantage over the index & allocate your way around the inevitable purchases of terrible businesses then another two decades hence you can crown yourself the new Buffett. In the meantime the comparison is a thoroughbred to a jackass. 22/

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

3 years

When Mr. Buffett says bonds are NOT the place to be, this is what he means. The 30-year UST dropped 16.3% in price in 3 months to Thursday. That was TEN years of coupons. The 10-year UST gave up 7 years of income. Think about that. And this is with no credit risk. Duration, baby.

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

29 days

Gross incompetence? Fraudulent promotion? I hope as a CFA you know, Tasha, that an investment recommendation must be made with a reasonable basis. Otherwise you lose your charter for violating the Standards of Practice and Code of Ethics. A $7-$10.9 trillion market cap expected

@TashaARK

Tasha Keeney

1 month

Our updated Tesla model is now out! Autonomous driving likely will be one of the most life-changing AI unlocks in history, and quite meaningful for Tesla shareholders:

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

1 year

35 FACTS NOT LIKELY FOUND ON ARKK YET UNRELEASED 12/31/2022 FACTSHEET 1. Loss from 2/12/2021 Peak: -80.1% 2. CNBC Appearances Since 2/12/2021 Peak: 23 3. Cumulative NET Assets Raised Since 10/31/2014 Launch: $17.1 Billion ($14.5B in 2020 and 2021) 4. Assets at 12/31/2022: $6.0B

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

3 years

(1 + the percent interest rate)^ time period. A series of returns can be linked as: (1 + the period percent return) + (1 + the period percent return) + etc…Or you can use a financial calculator such as the one below. I happen to have an extra which I'd be happy to send you: 10/

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Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

3 years

Berkshire did return 12.5% against 1.4% from 1965-1974 but that’s actually ten, not the nine years you reference. Simple mistake, I’m sure. Had you used nine years Berkshire had returned 22.7% annually, quite a bit higher than the 12.5% you errantly show. More on this soon. 2/

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

3 years

Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk and Richard Branson alone have a combined carbon footprint exceeding 78 of the planet's 195 countries.

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

4 years

A single prediction for the New Year. Those unfamiliar with the Federal Reserve Board’s Regulation T will hear lots about it during 2021. The rule limits the percentage of an investment in equity securities that can be borrowed with a margin loan. A wake up call is scheduled...1/

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Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

2 years

Gas stations earn ~1.5% selling gasoline. The margin often contracts when prices rise. They finance gas in storage before selling it at the pump. 75% of gas is sold at convenience stores w/ nearly all profit made selling food and drink. Bring down the Big Gulp, Mr. President.

@POTUS

President Biden

2 years

My message to the companies running gas stations and setting prices at the pump is simple: this is a time of war and global peril. Bring down the price you are charging at the pump to reflect the cost you’re paying for the product. And do it now.

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Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

2 years

A $400 million, 12.7% pop on MicroStrategy earnings? Must have been a huge quarter. But was it? You'd have to look far and wide for a management so determined to mask reality. I don't recall a more deceitful and puffed earnings release and call. By any company. Maybe Enron. 1/

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

2 years

Berkshire Hathaway released its 3Q 10-Q and earnings release this morning. In what was a very quiet quarter on the capital allocation front, there are a number of interesting developments in the filing and particularly the MD&A. A few comments on the quarter and developments. 1/

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

3 years

Berkshire’s $31B Apple investment is now worth $159B. Wow. With dividends, the position has compounded at 36% a year for ~5.5 years. Ark claims an extraordinarily hyperbolic expected 40% per year for the next 5 years. Start bailing kids, the ark is sinking and hope don’t float.

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

8 months

One of the greatest investors, teachers and wits. Profoundly sad day. What a life lived to its fullest. Charlie Munger. RIP

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

2 years

I never wanted kids. Distractions. Inconvenient. Twenty-one years ago to the day, my life, and everything that matters, changed forever. Happy birthday to the apple of my eye. Pure joy.

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

2 years

Lithium was 9% of the cost of a battery cell in 2021. Nickel was 12% of the cost. Those numbers were 13% and 21% respectively in 2022. The Lithium price rose 89% in 2022. Nickel rose 41%. The average cost of an EV battery is between 30% and 57% of the vehicle's total value. 1/

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

2 years

$MSTR CFO acknowledged a margin call at #BTC 21,000. The bond market acknowledges whether a company can service $2.5 billion in debt on $500 million in revenues. Who wants the 2027 zero at 60 cents yielding 10.8%? Quoting George W Bush, “This sucker’s goin’ down.”

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

2 years

The world would be better off if we could borrow another 99 years with Charles T Munger. It’s been better off for the past 99 for sure having had him. Happy Birthday, Charlie, and Happy New Year!

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

2 years

Tether’s death spiral continues. Stair-step net redemptions now $16.5 billion. June 30 audit, er, point-in-time attestation, looms. Nice seeing the lads throwing life vests back and forth. If you have money, er, crypto, still on an exchange, what in the world are you thinking? 1/

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

24 days

Stunning. Nvidia passes Microsoft and Apple as largest market cap. Combined, the three are valued at $9.9 trillion, 21.5% of the entire market capitalization of the S&P 500. The three are today LARGER than the capitalization of the ENTIRE S&P in September 2011, not a market low.

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

2 years

When you lose 90% of every buck invested in ARKK, charging 0.75% for the privilege, what do you do for an encore? The Ark Venture Fund charges a management fee of 2.75% with a total expense ratio ARK estimates at 4.22%. Nice. Asset deflation, fee inflation. $500 minimum to play.

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

2 years

Actually, Mike, credit is the $2.4 billion you borrowed to buy $4 billion of #Bitcoin , now worth $500 million less. Those folks that loaned you the money, the US dollars? They are your creditors. Those creditors are likely soon to be your equity owners. Money: Easy come, easy go.

@saylor

Michael Saylor⚡️

2 years

#Bitcoin is money. Everything else is credit.

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Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

2 years

ARKK is down 41.3% since 4/12 when its CEO/CIO said on CNBC she expected 50% per year over the next 5 years. Six months on, that suggests a 57% annual return over the next 4.5 years. How about the last five years? ARKK gained 4.3%, 0.8% per year, less than T-bills. New forecast?

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

2 years

For those uninitiated in Ponzi scheme mechanics, sustaining a Ponzi requires more money coming in the front door than is being grifted out the back. Read these desperate comments and ask yourself if this is a Ponzi. Get your assets off the exchanges or expect a complete loss. 1/

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Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

2 years

It seems the MicroStrategy faithful have conditioned themselves to believe they own a levered long call on #Bitcoin , with a profitable software company supporting it. Reason, and apparently basic valuation math, is not their bailiwick. So, what DO they own, and at what price? 1/

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Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

2 years

Who could forget the C-Suite high jinks when Elon and CFO Zach Kirkhorn invested $1.5 billion in Bitcoin and added the titles "Technoking of Tesla" and "Master of Coin?" Since the March 15, 2021 rebranding, Tesla and Bitcoin are down 48% and 70%, respectively. Great fun.🎄 1/

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Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

2 years

Random observations on Berkshire Hathaway's quarterly which dropped this morning. Lots to like. Those following Berkshire know reported earnings are impacted in the short term by movements in the stock portfolio so are largely useless as an indication of business condition. 1/

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

3 years

Fourth, it’s very lacking in your presentation and comparison that in an annual letter penned on May 26 seeing no mention made to the performance of each of your SPACs during the first five months of 2021, four of the six of which are substantially negative for the year. 11/

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

2 years

The market is now pricing in a 36% probability of 2037 rate cuts, the 55% certain 2036-37 recession, followed by the 63% likelihood of 2032-2036 QE, the nasty 2029 depression, the 2024 to 2029 expansion, the 85% chance of rate cuts and QE in 2023, and 110% recession odds in 2022.

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

2 years

Wanna get rich? This gem, the El Salvador 9.5% 30-year bond at $37.60 yields 25.28%. At that rate you keep doubling every 37 months. Plunk down $1 million and if you can keep reinvesting the 9.5% coupons at 25.28% you will have $863 million. CCC is the new AAA. Get some for Dad.

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

11 months

Berkshire reported 2Q results this morning. As always, there's more under the hood than the reported results. A few thoughts on what is a very mixed bag. BRK is a good proxy for the US economy. The industrial economy is weak, consistent with what other companies are reporting. 1/

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Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

3 years

Second, for what its worth, the S&P 500 actually returned 18.4% in 2020, not the 17.88% you mentioned twice and were careful to point out included dividends. I’d rather round to the tenths, check my source and be correct than round to the hundredths and be precisely incorrect. 3/

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

3 years

So, @elonmusk , you do know that the proposed tax on UNREALIZED capital gains on billionaires is just that, a proposal, right? Why would you burden yourself with an enormous tax until the proposal becomes tax law, which is highly unlikely? A couple questions for you. 1/

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Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

2 years

Attention Kmart shoppers. Three more days like today and not only will ARKK have given back ALL of its 152.7% gain in 2020 but will have UNDERPERFORMED both Berkshire Hathaway and the S&P 500 from ARK's inception in 2014. Lest you think this is a buying opportunity, consider...1/

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

3 years

Ten years? Did you read the disclosure in YOUR letter stating YOUR returns begin on 6/1/11, or did you forget when you launched your first fund? You don’t appear to even have a ten-year track record, @chamath . Looks like 9 yrs 7 mos. The whole thing is confusing. Intentional? 1/

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@chamath

Chamath Palihapitiya

3 years

@ChrisBloomstran Thanks for catching this: it was a mislabel of the chart. The label should say Ten years. Also, the discrepancy in your S&P returns vs ours is because we calculated it as an IRR based on when we made our investments.

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

3 years

Perhaps you or your auditors used returns without dividends? That wouldn’t work, however, because the dividend yield was greater than 0.52%. Where do your numbers come from? Standard and Poor's provides them for free. 4/

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

3 years

Cathie @CathieDWood , Not a chance was US stock market cap/GDP greater in the late 1800s and early 1900s than it is today. It was a FRACTION of today's level. It measured 90% at the stock market PEAK in 1929 and closed 2020 at a record 183%. Close to 200% now. Far less business 1/

@CathieDWood

Cathie Wood

3 years

In the late 1800’s and early 1900’s - as telephone, electricity, and the automobile were emerging - the US equity market cap relative to GDP appears to have been 2-3 times higher than it is today. We need to verify this difficult-to-get data but, if true, I have a hypothesis.

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Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

3 years

Apple’s market cap reached $3T this morning. Microsoft at $2.6T. The combined market value of the two companies alone is greater than the valuation of the ENTIRE S&P 500 on March 9, 2009. By reference, US nominal GDP is 60% higher. Fear pervaded in 2009. Greed reigns for now.

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Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

3 years

Feel free to use these figures. Over the past five years, according to Standard and Poor’s, the index returned: 2016: 12.0% 2017: 21.8% 2018: (4.4%) - the parentheses reflect a negative 2019: 31.5% 2020: 18.4% 7/

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

3 years

It was the diversion of capital to other money-making enterprises that saved BRK and allowed it to become what it is today. That's the brilliance of Mr. Buffett. I hope you continue to present your returns against Berkshire’s early years in each successive year without fail. 14/

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

1 year

Son back to college last week. Daughter back to college this morning. Wife out of town. Just me and Big Oil. Ahh, silence, right? Friendly wish to those with young families. Enjoy every second, the good and the bad. And don’t blink. Loved having everyone home for a few weeks.

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

2 years

Hard to fathom Mexico/Pemex is completing a 340,000 barrel of oil per day refinery for a stunning $18 billion, a $9B cost overrun. By comparison, HollyFrontier (now HF Sinclair) bought the 149,000 BOD Puget Sound Refinery from Shell for $350 million ($250m EBITDA) last year.

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

2 years

Great to be back in Omaha! A little trivia for the weekend: Berkshire Hathaway can decline 99.3% and still have outperformed the S&P 500 since 1965. I mentioned that to Mr. Buffett several years ago. His reply, “Ben Graham would be proud. But let’s not test the math.”

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

3 years

Further, over what period of time does 15.2% compound to a 59% overall gain? Your math makes no sense unless these are not annual periods. 15.2% over four years is 74.9% cumulative and over five years is 101.1%. How do you get to only 59% overall for the index? Weird. Support? 6/

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

2 years

Dear Mr. Price, er, @rajgokal , Given your age, you may be getting forgetful. A little help for your updated Twitter bio: Recall you founded Price Club, which then MERGED with Costco, founded by your mentee, Jim Sinegal. I apologize for calling the crypto third rate. 1/(of course)

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

3 years

So investing in China is a good idea? Here’s an invaluable nugget from @jasonzweigwsj . Since 8/31/92, that’s 1992, almost 30 years where the Chinese economy often grew 10% or more, MSCI China index earned 2.2% per year. MSCI Emerging did 7.8%. S&P 500 10.7%. Cheap or fool’s game?

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Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

3 years

It’s impressive to see you calculate your 9-year gain at 33.0%. Of course that’s an IRR, highly influenced by the dollars at work at intervals, are gross of fees & not time-weighted. When $BRKA calculates their growth in book value per share, gains over time are AFTER TAXES. 18/

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

2 years

This is now Elon's burden. Perhaps the car company, er, software company, will be so cash-generative to buy Twitter. Probably not. In the meantime, kudos to the former Twitter brass. Happy swimming in your money mountain! To the former Twitter shareholders: Better luck next time.

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

2 years

Life throws curveballs. Using this platform to ask our friends that pray to send strength my wife Mary’s daughter Natalie, and her new daughter, Charlotte, born two weeks ago. Charlotte is in the ICU for three weeks with Haemophilus influenze, which led to meningitis. Terrifying.

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

3 years

Perhaps you cherry picked the most convenient time series for Berkshire, errantly using the 10-year and calling it the 9-year to more favorably suit the comparison? You may have known that the 1973-1974 bear market was vicious? Berkshire declined 2.5% in '73 and 48.7% in '74. 15/

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

2 years

Oh, no! Who’s going call Omaha to tell Warren he has major investments in ALL FIVE of ARK’s Bad Ideas to avoid.

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Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

2 years

“Robinhood. It’s unraveling. God is getting just.” - Charlie Munger. $HOOD

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Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

3 years

Finally, comparison of your returns for what you call 9 years to Berkshire’s first 9 years is stunningly bewildering (ignoring that the return series for BRK is in reality ten years - see above). How is that even remotely comparable? What's the point? Better than Mr. Buffett? 12/

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Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

3 years

Also, why do you use Gross IRR’s in presenting your returns and not net or time-weighted returns? IRR is of course dollar weighted, so any increase in flows or assets will potentially overstate returns. If it helps calculating a compound return series can be done as such: 9/

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

3 years

I’ve seen this picture show exactly once in my 30-year career. 2000. A survey of history reveals similar breadth erosion among hot sectors at secular peaks in 1972 (‘66/‘68 as well) and 1929. The answer as to what to do, or not to do, is never obvious. Great chart, @TaviCosta .

@TaviCosta

Otavio (Tavi) Costa

3 years

Truly remarkable. Nasdaq is just 2.6% from all-time highs while only 35% of its members are above 200-day moving average. Such breath deterioration only happened at the peak of tech bubble. Beware of times when the generals lead but the soldiers don't follow.

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

3 years

It sure would be great to see how you arrived at 15.2% and 59% for 2017 to 2020. What’s your data source? Do material errors in your calculation for the index imply errors in your calculation of your investment returns? 8/

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

3 years

Third, its difficult to know what math you are using here or from where you get your data. 2017 to 2020 is four years and the S&P 500 returned 16.0% over those four years. The five-year return is 15.2%, matching the figure in your table - but that’s five years. 5/

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

3 years

1974 was year TEN under present management's control. At 8 years in, Berkshire had compounded at 26.3% against 7.8% for the index. By year 12, Berkshire’s compound return had recovered to 18.4%, having gained 129.3% in 1976. Pre and post the bear market. Cute using 1974. 16/

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Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

2 years

Berkshire and its subs are paying 3.6% interest on $119B in debt outstanding, much very long. Meanwhile, it’s earning 4.3% on $101B in T-bills held. An identical $4.3 billion interest paid & interest earned. How many companies lengthened debt in recent years at record low yields?

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

1 year

Ark Invest, the bucket shop EFT promotional “investor,” the one whose founder CEO told a CNBC audience a year ago that ARKK would earn 50% a year (correct if she said minus), is back with its 3rd annual Tesla “research report” with a fresh $2,000 price forecast by 2027. Amen. 1/

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

2 years

And there it is folks. Since the 2014 inception of $ARKK, the ETF has now underperformed Berkshire Hathaway. Hickory Dickory Teladoc. $BRK cumulative advantage on ARKK’s decline today is now 10%. There are GOATs and there are goats. 🐐

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Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

2 years

What a Long Strange Roundtrip it's Been. $ARKK gives back all (but 60 cents) of its gain since 2019. That's 156.6% in 2020 and 25.8% through 2/12/21 gone. Assets were $1.7B on 12/31/19. $9.3B now. Promises of Tesla at $3,000, now $4,600. Projections of 15%, then 40%, then 50%. 1/

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Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

3 years

Nowhere to run. Nowhere to hide. Pit stop at the Speedway Gas the middle of Illinois and there she and the 40% expected return are right on the fuel pump. Save us.

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

3 years

Ah, this must be what she meant by deflation. $ARKK is back to it’s 10/1/20 price, yet AUM is double today what it was then. How can that be? THE MONEY ALL COMES IN AT THE TOP. Roughly three-fourths of all money invested in its SEVEN-YEAR history is now underwater. Price matters.

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@CathieDWood

Cathie Wood

3 years

Inflation has flared in response to COVID-related supply chain bottlenecks and oil supply constraints but, IMHO, the powerful and converging deflationary forces associated with AI, energy storage (EVs!), robotics, genomic sequencing, and blockchain technology will bend the curve.

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

3 years

I’ve read this Brainard speech three times. Some takeaways: Private money/crypto? We will kill you. Stablecoins? We will kill you. Cash? It will be digital and our liability. All of it. Kiss paper fiat goodbye. The unbanked? You will be banked. We will be the bank. 1/

@federalreserve

Federal Reserve

@federalreserve

3 years

Speech by Governor Brainard on private money and central bank money as payments go digital:

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

2 years

Warren Buffett paid under $11 per share for his position in Berkshire Hathaway between 1962 and 1965. Today, the company earns $11 per share. Every three hours.

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

2 years

If you think borrowing $2.4 billion and raising a new $1B in equity capital to finance a $4B purchase in #Bitcoin was a good idea then @saylor is your guy. How’s it going? Since last Saturday the loss has grown from $500 million to $1.5 billion. At 3/31 the position was $5.9B. 1/

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@ChrisBloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

2 years

MicroStrategy 0% 2/15/27 debt at $51.50, a 14.7% yield. Coincidentally, 5150 is the section of the CA Welfare and Institutions Code allowing a person with a mental challenge to be involuntarily detained for psychiatric hospitalization if considered a threat to others or self. 1/

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Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

2 years

I understand Sam Bankman-Fried has been invited to sing God Bless America at this year’s Super Bowl.

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Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

1 year

Totally makes sense. US GDP is $26 trillion. World GDP is $105 trillion.

@CathieDWood

Cathie Wood

1 year

Today, @ARKInvest published the seventh edition of Big Ideas 2023. According to our research, the market value of disruptive innovation platforms could scale 40% at an annual rate during this cycle, from $13 trillion today to $200 trillion by 2030.

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Christopher Bloomstran

@ChrisBloomstran

2 years

You can lose badly buying unprofitable companies at 18 times sales, but what mental giant paid €101.73 for the 100-year Austrian bond 6 months after it was issued at €65.96 to yield 0.42%? Guesses on today’s price? Here’s a hint: The 98-year yield is now up to a rich 3.29%. 1/

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