Hold Onto Your Butts LP @when_to_fold_em Twitter profile

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Hold Onto Your Butts LP

@when_to_fold_em

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$Wallfacer — e\acc$

@KayzeeFPS

Hold Onto Your Butts LP

@when_to_fold_em

2 months

@PythiaR Elon has been washed for about 10 years. Since then he's been a net drain on the companies he set in motion.

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2 months

What’s left unsaid here is TXN FCF sucks because they are pulling 2027-2032 capex into 2022-2027 so that the electronics industry doesn’t shut down if China invades Taiwan in 2028

Fabricated Knowledge

@_fabknowledge_

2 months

*ACTIVIST ELLIOTT TAKES $2.5B STAKE IN TEXAS INSTRUMENTS: CNBC well this is interesting

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5 months

@bespokeinvest Yes that is because NVDA’s AI gross margin is 85%. SMCI’s AI gross margin is like 14% and their competitors’ are like 3-5%.

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Hold Onto Your Butts LP

@when_to_fold_em

5 months

@contrarianEPS Very good

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Hold Onto Your Butts LP

@when_to_fold_em

5 months

@ReaperCapital They have the terminal but he never uses it

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Hold Onto Your Butts LP

@when_to_fold_em

29 days

Came up with a list of purported AI winners as of ~1 year ago. "Real AI" column indicates AI-related sales have driven LTM earnings materially above pre-2023 levels (ie, not forward looking). Any disagreements?

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Hold Onto Your Butts LP

@when_to_fold_em

4 months

@quantian1 I would take the under on .2%

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1 month

$AVGO 2025 gross profit from one (1) custom google chip: $8b $AVGO entire R&D expenditure, supporting hundreds of semiconductor and software products: $10b

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Hold Onto Your Butts LP

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3 months

$AMD back below 2021 highs like a true shtco

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Hold Onto Your Butts LP

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6 months

@noMidwestHedgie @DaSkrubKing Sy Hersh has been getting finessed by ridiculous human sources for like 40 years now

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Hold Onto Your Butts LP

@when_to_fold_em

3 months

@tracyalloway this was a great show on the topic @underunderstood

What's the Deal with Airport Food?

There's a formula that dictates restaurant prices in New York City airports. Adrianne digs into what does — and doesn't — add up.

underunderstood.com

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@when_to_fold_em

4 months

@liensofnewyork PM has churned thru 3 senior analysts in 3 years and 2 of them left the industry altogether but you’re gonna be a great fit

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Hold Onto Your Butts LP

@when_to_fold_em

10 months

Why do people always get so mad about $MU? Market is forward looking bros. What price do you think it will be in a year? Ok, that’s what everyone else thinks too, and that’s why it’s already that price today. This is how cyclical stocks work.

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Hold Onto Your Butts LP

@when_to_fold_em

3 months

@quantian1 wait the big unveil here is another analog accelerator startup? lmaooooo there are fundamental reasons why analog processors are essentially useless for ai in practice. I wonder if these guys tried to figure out why every other analog startup pivoted or failed

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Hold Onto Your Butts LP

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3 months

@_fabknowledge_ huh wonder what happened here?

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Hold Onto Your Butts LP

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5 months

@DynamicMoats @eric_seufert They’ve toured the office so ya

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Hold Onto Your Butts LP

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8 months

The tiny community of Effective Altruists are responsible for the 2 most spectacular corporate blow ups of the past decade lmao

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Hold Onto Your Butts LP

@when_to_fold_em

3 months

last 4 week performance: $LW -22% $LULU -20% $AMD -19% gm to my potato, Chip, and chip baggies

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@when_to_fold_em

28 days

People on FinTwit recall that Donald Trump was already president and actually did the opposite of what he suggests here. Have you not realized over the past 9 years he will always tell audiences exactly what they want to hear, which means he will take both sides of every policy?

Smita Deshmukh🇮🇳

@smitadeshmukh

28 days

Donald Trump states that if you graduate from a US college, you should automatically get a green card with your diploma. We need brilliant people to stay in US and build their companies.

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Hold Onto Your Butts LP

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3 months

Very sad to have been blocked by MasaSonCap guy the day ARM went down 20% on no news

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Hold Onto Your Butts LP

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4 months

@ghost_motley It’s because they are “diced” from a wafer

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Hold Onto Your Butts LP

@when_to_fold_em

2 months

@Wesleymooch @PythiaR He did awesome work from 2005 to 2015 building Tesla and SpaceX and assembling amazing teams. Every major decision he’s made since then has been bad. It’s happened to many founders.

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@when_to_fold_em

2 months

@dcblocher @PythiaR yes but that was the result of the team he put in place. his management/decisions have been subtracting value since the mid-2010's

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Hold Onto Your Butts LP

@when_to_fold_em

2 months

Might be stubborn and lose money by omission but I can’t put 30x on $MRVL out year earnings when the growth from comes from compute asics Taiwanese suppliers can do at 1/2 the gross margin

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3 months

$CDNS multiple seems insane

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Hold Onto Your Butts LP

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1 month

@matt_levine These are the people who agree with Elon that the chancery court stole his money and gave it to them, but don’t want to give it back

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@when_to_fold_em

2 months

@samsaraas @dcblocher @PythiaR If you do a bunch of failures in a row with no successes that makes you a bad CEO

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21 days

@bucketshopcap and 80% of them are sw PMs convinced they would have nailed NVDA if they had a junior analyst feeding them the latest taiwan rumor mill (ie conor o'mara blast email)

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Hold Onto Your Butts LP

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1 year

@BenjaminDEKR @TechEmails Well this was Apple in 2005…

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Hold Onto Your Butts LP

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5 months

So if $SNOW manages to reach 30% operating margin by 2027, it's currently trading at ~40-45x 2027 NOPAT which at that point will be growing mid-teens lollll. I don't cover software but seems like this thing has another 30% downside.

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Hold Onto Your Butts LP

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3 months

My $20 $INTC target price suddenly seeming not so outrageous

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Hold Onto Your Butts LP

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4 months

👏the👏NVDA👏bubble👏is👏not👏the👏multiple👏it's👏the👏TAM👏

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Hold Onto Your Butts LP

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3 months

@buccocapital Casework is absolutely essential But it’s obnoxious if hiring firms give the casework to eg 30 people including low probability candidates for 1 position. Unclear if that’s what’s happening here

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Hold Onto Your Butts LP

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1 month

YOU CAN ASK SIRI TO DELETE AN EMAIL NOW. SUPER CYCLE IMMINENT, I REPEAT SUPER CYCLE IMMINENT

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Hold Onto Your Butts LP

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5 months

@UMMPEorbust analysts all have bamsec

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Hold Onto Your Butts LP

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3 months

Good news - your $3T of infrastructure investment will be generating $300b of revenue in 10 years

Beth Kindig

@Beth_Kindig

3 months

Generative AI software spending is expected to surpass $300B annually by 2032 at a CAGR of 70% with notable growth in cybersecurity, drug discovery, AI assistants, and coding workflows. $MSFT $NVDA $AMD $AAPL $AMZN $GOOGL $META

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Hold Onto Your Butts LP

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2 months

@ChairliftCap I’ve only had one horrible management meeting after a fire drill killed my prep time at a conference. Was hoping the other investors would bail me out but as we were walking in the one other guy turned to me and said “I’m new to the name so you’re gonna have to carry this one”

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Hold Onto Your Butts LP

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22 days

Why do people think this is fake? How much do they think analysts at hedge funds with $5b AUM and ~15 investment professionals make

James Fishback

@j_fishback

22 days

Why did Einhorn pay me (a college drop out) $1 MM? Because I printed money for him with my macro trades. Can’t wait to launch Azoria.

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Hold Onto Your Butts LP

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3 months

Bought MTCH after lunch today and already underperformed into the close! Is this what it's like to own this stock?

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Hold Onto Your Butts LP

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10 months

@Alphaholic1 If I’m still doing this job at 60 I better be making way more than that. Otherwise I’m better off on the beach

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Hold Onto Your Butts LP

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2 months

@RiseXBT @samsaraas @dcblocher @PythiaR Elon is pretty hands off at SpaceX, according to my friend who is a senior engineer there. My brother worked at Tesla and Elon constantly interfered and made things worse. Starlink absolutely does not cash flow.

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Hold Onto Your Butts LP

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5 months

Does any sell side have a good tracker for H100 cloud pricing?

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Hold Onto Your Butts LP

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4 months

@liensofnewyork The Global Equity Glean The Surveyor Shine The Ashler Albedo The Baly Burnish The Millenium Mirror The Point Pearl

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10 months

@lizweil @RemmeltE They probably did the reporting and found nothing was there

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Hold Onto Your Butts LP

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4 months

The dotcom era fiber buildout added an enormous amount of value to the economy but there was no ROI on the investment and capex crashed because DWDM commoditized the fiber infrastructure. GPT-4 level APIs are already commoditized. So why will the training buildout have ROI?

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@when_to_fold_em

8 days

Love it when I spend a few weeks learning a new stock, lose 15% right away, sweat it out as it slowly grinds back the losses, blow out, and never think about that company again. Great use of my time

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Hold Onto Your Butts LP

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2 months

I’m becoming more bullish on a notebook PC cycle, but because of these new Qualcomm chips, not AI

Jeffrey Lebowski

@RugCapital

2 months

Dell leaks show Qualcomm CPU having 65%-100% battery life improvements over Intel share gains inbound h/t @insane_analyst

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Hold Onto Your Butts LP

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5 months

@ryxcommar

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6 months

Everyone else is finding out what SM analysts already know - your billionaire boss is no smarter than a typical smart guy

Katie Herzog

@kittypurrzog

6 months

I’ve got my complaints about Twitter but as a forum for billionaires to humiliate themselves it really is unbeatable

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Hold Onto Your Butts LP

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3 months

Went back and checked with my alt and he literally just ignored it happening and tweeted about charter lol

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Hold Onto Your Butts LP

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3 months

@Citrini7 I think the most likely outcome is an in-line print with a good June quarter guide. Then a disappointing FY25 guide in a few months.

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Hold Onto Your Butts LP

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6 months

I'm good, thanks

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Hold Onto Your Butts LP

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4 months

Folks... it's not "1996" It's 1999 or 2000. The discontinuity vs trend in capex is already here. Whether there is a cliff in 2025 IMO depends if GPT is a step change towards AGI. If it's not, the world will demand ROI on LLM training capex investments before spending $200b more

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6 months

@quantian1 IIRC, after meeting with management they retracted their recommendation to salt the water lol

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1 month

what in tarnation...

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Hold Onto Your Butts LP

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4 months

it's literally the same people. CoreWeave, Voltage Park, Taiga Cloud, Hyperstack, Crusoe, etc are all crypto people (despite efforts of many to obfuscate their origins...)

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

4 months

AI industry suffering from crypto-like hype and grift according to Demis Hassabis, co-founder of DeepMind and CEO of Google’s AI research division - FT

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Hold Onto Your Butts LP

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5 months

This is the most insane Form 4 I have ever seen

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7 months

@CoorsLightCEO You think private flight trackers monitoring traffic between HQ cities of plausible M&A parties represent any sort of edge? What is this, 2011?

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3 months

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5 months

@emollick To be honest Ethan it sounds like a subscription product with a very negative gross margin and a worse performance (30 min latency!) than a small controller running yolo v3 on the edge (maybe kicking it up to the gpt4 once every blue moon when it sees something unusual)

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Hold Onto Your Butts LP

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2 months

Congrats to @WallStCynic on his Data Centers call. Caught a lot of shit but kept on truckin 🫡

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4 months

Seriously, what is AI PC? You get a worse version of copilot that works on an airplane?

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Hold Onto Your Butts LP

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1 year

@ericwdolan @michelob_p @buccocapital Sounds like complete nonsense

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Hold Onto Your Butts LP

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28 days

getting more interested in $AMD vs $NVDA relative here 😱

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2 months

@RiseXBT @samsaraas @dcblocher @PythiaR Starlink is a subsidiary of SpaceX. It's "profitable" only with fake transfer pricing. Model 3/Y are undoubtedly successful but understand this is because of engineering decisions made in 2015 and earlier.

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10 months

@JohnStonkton4 Usually businesses with very high inventory turns

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Hold Onto Your Butts LP

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3 months

Covering consumer from NYC seems very easy. Hoka, Hermes - cool. Louis Vuitton, Gucci, Nike - not cool. On - was inexplicably popular for 5 minutes, now definitely not cool. Haven’t seen anyone wear Canada Goose in ages.

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4 months

Fondly remembering all of the various guys on here who said TSMC couldn’t build a plant in Arizona due to DEI or whatever

Dan Nystedt

@dnystedt

4 months

TSMC plans to begin pilot production at its 1st Arizona, USA fab by mid-April in preparation for mass production by the end of 2024 – ahead of schedule, media report, citing industry sources. TSMC originally said mass production would begin in the 1st half of 2025. TSMC is quoted

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2 months

@pmje73 @WaterworldCapi1 Google search ad pricing

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4 months

😜

Hold Onto Your Butts LP

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5 months

$DELL added $150m of AI server gross profit to backlog and $15,000m to it's market cap

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Hold Onto Your Butts LP

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5 months

Funny how no one is pretending to care about Web3 this cycle

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5 months

Do these guys know literally the first thing about Google Search? Why does google make bank on Safari default search while Bing couldn't even break even at the concession price set by Google...

Brad Gerstner

@altcap

5 months

Yes! It’s why the Innovator’s Dilemma is called a dilemma! Bc those attacking search - ChatGPT, MetaAI, Perplexity, Apple, - can do this at materially lower margins bc it’s all upside - whereas $GOOG likely ends up w lower share / margin even if victorious. @BG2Pod 💥

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3 months

@Dr_Fluffles @quantian1 its because the time and energy required to load the model from dram into the analog computer (which must be repeated many many times for a large model) and also convert d to a and a back to d outweighs all the advantages of the analog mac computation

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Hold Onto Your Butts LP

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4 months

@corry_wang many many people have trained "a" 200b parameter model. you can do it too if you pony up the cash to rent the cluster.

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6 months

People jump from one argument to the next to explain how LLM capex is going to be sustainable at ~5-10x LLM software revenue. What does the Sovereign AI bull case look like? Japan, India, maybe EU building $5b clusters? Buy side is modeling $15-20b AI capex per month in 2025.

Gavin Baker

@GavinSBaker

6 months

Sovereign AI is going to be epically awesome for every datacenter supplier and end the silly venture bubble in proprietary LLMs that are not attached to a giant internet distribution platform that can drive differentiated RLHF/DPO. Over time, it is going to be increasingly hard

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5 months

@MetacriticCap Firing Sundar for a minor PR mishap that resulted from aggressively shipping a product that wasn’t quite ready would be very bad and counterproductive decision from the board

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6 months

You, little brain, generalist, made way more money than me on AI: NVIDIA’s moat is CUDA Me, big brain, technology expert, missed a chance at creating generational wealth on AI: NVIDIA’s moat is actually Infiniband

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10 months

@TheStalwart Half your male coworkers have secretly been wearing lululemon athletic work pants every day for 3+ years now…

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Hold Onto Your Butts LP

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5 months

@ThePythonQuant Uh… duh

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2 months

Joe Weisenthal

@TheStalwart

2 months

US: We want semiconductor companies to rebuild out their domestic manufacturing capacity. Activist investors: Not on my watch!

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10 months

@quantian1 @mdcatchen It’s because of Antarctica

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2 months

Imagine assembling the national dream team for urban planning and coming up with this

Glenn

@GlennLuk

2 months

Imagine spending the four last decades training and assembling the best teams on every aspect of urban planning from residential construction, architectural design, sewage, utilities, transit, tech/telecom, schools, city services, transport, etc. This is Xiong'an.

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2 months

Jefferies China published what were all thinking… Apple’s comments that China iPhone revenue grew in the March quarter make zero sense

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2 months

@samsaraas @dcblocher @PythiaR He spent a ton of time and resources on X, semi, Cybertruck, and Roadster when he should have been working on M2. Now Tesla has no new models that will move the needle until the end of the decade.

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1 month

Apple is not letting customers of iPhones before iPhone 15 use it's suite of AI SaaS applications lolll

Mark Gurman

@markgurman

1 month

Apple’s AI initiative will be opt in, a beta and require an iPhone 15 Pro or M1 device or newer. It’s going to be called Apple Intelligence.

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4 months

@liensofnewyork $1 in the bank for every hair follicle now lying permanently dormant on their shiny upper foreheads

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3 months

@bucketshopcap I kinda doubt it because a huge number of pods made their entire annual nut in q1

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4 months

pet peeve that actually matters -- people say AI when what they mean is LLMs. we are not building AI capex, we are building LLM capex

Hold Onto Your Butts LP

@when_to_fold_em

4 months

The dotcom era fiber buildout added an enormous amount of value to the economy but there was no ROI on the investment and capex crashed because DWDM commoditized the fiber infrastructure. GPT-4 level APIs are already commoditized. So why will the training buildout have ROI?

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2 months

@MetacriticCap I think they want to attract customers who want to hedge their bets All this stuff is pretty commodity, so this is good differentiator

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24 days

Interesting recession. 4% unemployment, record holiday air travel, stock market at ATH, parking attendants directing customers to overflow lots at Costco…

Kuppy

@hkuppy

24 days

Taken a step further, based on nominal GDP, we’ve been in recession for the past 2 years…

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6 months

To be a good L/S investor in a growth cyclical industry, you have to do trades that feel very bad. That’s obvious. My learning is that in order to be a great L/S investor in those industries, you also have to know when to do trades that feel too easy, which is surprisingly hard…

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8 months

@buccocapital from:eshear aella_girl

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5 months

@LongVollllll I think he’s probably just never thought about it lol

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5 months

@NickyWill100 @contrarianEPS Over 15 years

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3 months

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3 months

Recession is worth it if bitcoin crashes and we don’t have to hear from those airheads for another 5 years

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3 months

@EcJayhawk @bucketshopcap They are definitely sourcing ideas from interviews. It’s not why they are doing the interviews, mind you

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5 months

Hold Onto Your Butts LP

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5 months

Begrudgingly covered half my $tsla

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2 months

@tphuang You continue to be confused with regards the intent of US policy. If the US wanted to cripple the Chinese semiconductor industry, the USG would have placed export controls on lagging edge tools years ago.

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