Dynamic Moats @DynamicMoats Twitter profile

Last Seen Profiles

@4seas

@lulymartinez304

@Plastician

@asagiriyua

@INDEPENDENCENHP

@stw_pdg

@tyori_VR

@catto_black

@annasofiasx

@ViaLactea_Ltd

@mohegovjo

@BgVL518N8zZ4WK

@luxorcode

@DrMikeLicona

@GeraldFilardi47

@LiHao6485

@ShitJadaTweets

@ibubohay2

@ColinStough

@bixcoito_san

@RaymundoMC

@VelvetIsCake

@TOAFN_Mod

@em_bongo

@SigridKaag

@induyr

@chillae_

@detroitmechanix

@GozutokCetin

@fer_avengers

@addie_1122

@vivilydabendan

@heartfulness

@HSWColtsFootbal

@laraguanaes

@8088Cod12289

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

3 years

Tiger cub life. Few.

30

141

2K

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

2 years

Forrest Li's $SE memo to employees

10

73

555

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

2 years

Collateralized fund obligations: CDOs but with stakes in PE owned companies as the underlying

14

49

412

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

2 years

The power of distribution > features

11

54

361

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

1 year

Co-founder of Cambridge Associates saying the quiet parts out loud "Claims of lower volatility for PE funds are not what they seem" "Buyouts net of fees and leverage have not outperformed public markets"

5

40

324

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

3 years

Unit economics. $UBER $GRUB $TKWY $DASH

7

42

303

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

2 months

Found a company trading for single digit earnings multiple that’s going to grow EPS at a 30% cagr thru 2026. High quality biz. Feels extremely good. Underfollowed, completely misunderstood, good liquidity, >1bn mkt cap. Anyone interested in a small writeup?

43

2

136

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

4 months

RBC's $CVNA note had a "what the bulls liked" and a "what the bears liked" section. What the bears liked section was blank.

8

7

118

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

4 years

6

11

102

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

3 years

$SHOP is potentially moving away from 3PL SFN strategy. Solving atom problems with byte solutions is very difficult. @benthompson

6

101

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

7 months

Gavin Baker has a rare combo of public market skills (LT investing, ST trading, portfolio/risk mgmt, market cycle awareness), private market skills (relationship building, deal sourcing/structuring), business building skills (brand building, team dev, communication, story

9

3

100

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

2 years

Capital efficiency of $ADYEN stands out (though to be fair the business has fewer segments vs. the comps)

4

11

98

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

3 years

1/n The inevitable future is omnichannel. $SQ is at the starting line for e-comm merchant coverage. $APT is in the early stages of offline coverage in the US. Merger accelerates merchant coverage of both past other offline POS and BNPL cos. This is both defensive and offensive.

2

11

89

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

1 year

Value investing: $NVDA was trading at <10x nine month forward earnings after chatgpt was released Humbling

4

3

75

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

2 years

$CVNA lenders are teaming up to present a united front in upcoming negotiations

12

7

65

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

6 months

$GOOG TPU ASP: $7k, 60% GM $AMD MI300 ASP: $15k, 64% GM $NVDA A100 ASP: $12k, 82% GM H100 ASP: $21k, 87% GM B100 ASP: $38k ASP, 85%, GM

6

13

65

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

3 years

Great graphics on fund flows for BNPL and difference in economics for an issuer BNPL solution (with customers who don't pay interest) vs. credit cards & BNPL transactions $APT $SQ $AFRM $KLAR $V $MA $PYPL

2

12

60

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

2 years

@viggy_krishnan @mycroftcap @Twasluck1 A lot of problems come from the PM/analyst working structure. Analyst has huge commitment bias because changing his views destroys credibility and makes it even harder for him to get positions on in an already low turnover book.

4

1

59

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

3 years

Super app contenders spending an aggregate of around $6-7bn/year in R&D

3

5

55

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

3 years

$GOOG 's search advantage in an omnichannel retail world

3

9

52

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

1 year

Datacenter demand $DLR $DBRG $EQIX @WallStCynic

5

9

51

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

2 years

Price elasticity of supply after Covid has been half of pre-pandemic levels.

3

4

45

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

4 months

@PythiaR It’s truly insane Compounding at that scale in an almost riskless way

1

0

44

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

2 years

Distribution wins again in payments $SQ $AFRM $KLAR $PYPL

3

4

44

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

3 years

1/n Great Jefferies convo w/ former Klarna exec on BNPL. Takeaways: BNPL volume potential is massive, early days. However, more providers will capture a large portion of the incremental BNPL growth, likely taking away LT BNPL upside from $APT/Klarna (obv how much is the key Q)

2

43

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

1 year

Hyperscale ASICs continue to ramp Broadcom/Google TPU chip revenue is expected to reach $4bn in 2024 vs. $50m in 2017. $META is expected to contribute $1bn/year to $AVGO's revenue within the next 2 years. High end ASIC market is $13-15bn, growing 20% a year H/t JPM

2

4

42

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

2 years

Continues to amaze me how Buffett is really the only one that has been able to compound at scale without blowing up.

Myles Danielsen

@MylesDanielsen

2 years

The Vision Fund is likely below cost at this point 🤐

2

3

22

5

1

41

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

2 years

Buyers of CFOs benefit from lower capital charges Déjà vu with CDOs and banks prior to GFC

2

5

41

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

2 years

Zuck is going to pull it off in 2 years

2

3

42

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

3 years

Latest US aggregator food delivery stats. $DASH $UBER $TKWY $JET

4

6

41

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

4 years

Rob Vinall: “Investors that consistently attach no value to free options commit the same sin as a lender that overestimates risk. They cede a comp adv to investors that do value them and expose themselves to negative selection by fishing in a pool drained of the best invest opps”

1

4

39

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

1 year

@GS_CapSF So center book is massively short nvda got it

1

0

37

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

2 years

In the future, Pershing and Tiger Global will be two interesting fund turnaround case studies. 2 very different turaround approaches.

3

1

37

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

3 years

Can someone please tell me how it feels for a fundamental equity firm to be up 40%/$3bn in 1 day? My friend there is too busy replying to the flood of texts. 🤣 Jokes aside. Super happy for SRS. Great guys. $CAR was a tough one for them for a long time, happy to see the success.

5

1

36

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

2 years

Cost of AI-based queries today H/t Bernstein

1

5

35

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

1 year

$EVO's scale advantages: Lower cost of failure for new games Can run higher fixed costs (tables) and better cater to bettors' hot table hunting behaviors Higher R&D fixed cost spend to develop a wider range of games Advantaged acquirer of unique tech/IP

5

1

34

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

1 year

$MOD's AI datacenter cooling biz grew 124% last Q, seeing potential orders from more hyperscale customers, growth in NA is in early days. EV thermal management biz is growing 30%+. EBITDA margins are 13% on their way to high teens. New mgmt executing well. 12-13x this FY P/E.

1

6

33

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

2 months

$PDD: Single digit P/E for a fast, profitable, secular grower capturing share across the world China business (>100% of profits today) continues to take share. Core revenue can probably grow 35%+ this year with net income growing faster. Temu GMV continues to grow triple digits

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

2 months

Found a company trading for single digit earnings multiple that’s going to grow EPS at a 30% cagr thru 2026. High quality biz. Feels extremely good. Underfollowed, completely misunderstood, good liquidity, >1bn mkt cap. Anyone interested in a small writeup?

43

2

136

1

32

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

1 year

$EVO ‘s game integrity efforts

2

29

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

1 year

@stratechery $AMZN relaunches Amazon Shipping. 3P sellers selling outside of $AMZN can now use AMZN's logistics network. More operating leverage coming

1

3

28

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

1 year

Of course, human nature will allow PE to continue to be great businesses for GPs "An institutional investor may have an IC chaired by a PE partner who is also a major donor" "Investor could have external private equity advisers who would see their profits disappear"

1

2

30

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

3 years

Pod shop life. Few.

Maroon_Macro

@Maroon_Macro

3 years

@DynamicMoats @iTrismegistus I like the pod shop one better

8

41

452

1

0

28

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

6 months

$MOD is a 10x in 1.5 years Had earnings and a low P/E the entire time Value investing still works though it’s harder than 15-20 years ago

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

1 year

$MOD's AI datacenter cooling biz grew 124% last Q, seeing potential orders from more hyperscale customers, growth in NA is in early days. EV thermal management biz is growing 30%+. EBITDA margins are 13% on their way to high teens. New mgmt executing well. 12-13x this FY P/E.

1

6

33

2

1

28

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

1 year

Some perspectives for HF analyst pay

On Wall Street, Lawyers Make More Than Bankers Now

Superstar attorneys can rake in more than $15 million a year, while compensation for bankers has hardly budged.

www.wsj.com

3

2

28

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

3 years

To borrow @DennisHong17 's concept: $EVO has more ecosystem control @dennis

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

3 years

@_inpractise The diff is brand recognition and share IMO. Players know $EVO’s brands and are taken into evo’s lobby. B2C operators in checks say it’s a traffic generator. Problem with an OSB provider is it has no brand visibility, and B2C in checks have said there are lots of providers.

1

0

7

0

27

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

1 year

Since '04, Pershing Square has returned 19x (16% CAGR) vs. 5.6x for $IEP (9.2%) and 5.8x for the S&P 500 (9.4%) Since PSH NA's launched in '14: 65% vs. -33% for IEP Since '87, IEP has returned 15.2x (7.8% CAGR) vs. the S&P 500 of 31.7x (10.1%) Investing is a tough game

2

25

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

2 years

"For the average US worker, 40% of wage growth over their working lifetime comes from job switching, rather than experience or skills" Low job switching pre-COVID likely created a drag on wage growth

1

2

24

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

1 year

"If a banks sells so much as one lonely bond from its HTM portfolio, it must remark its entire securities book." $SIVB bit the bullet on $26bn of HFS, $91bn of HTM next?

Raging Capital Ventures

@RagingVentures

2 years

$SIVB’s “Hold to Maturity” Accounting Trap, datapoint compliments of Grant’s

9

32

185

3

0

25

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

2 years

"Only once in a generation economic downturns like the double-dip recession of 1980-82 or the GFC in 2008-2009 have resulted in oil demand contractions in excess of 2mm b/d" - BAML

2

1

25

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

3 years

Great chart on $CVNA financing fund flows $KMX $VRM

2

5

22

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

2 years

@RaisingTheBAR47 Michael Lewis needs to write a book and examining how 75% of equity pod pms blow out within 3 years yet the platforms can put up great returns thanks to risk management, system design, and ability to pivot between asset classes.

0

24

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

1 year

How pricing in the offline acquiring market trended in the early 2000s is a helpful case study for where online acquiring will go in the medium to long term The offline acquiring stocks still generated strong returns earlier in the decade given 1) there was still white space as

2

1

24

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

2 years

Always find it odd when good investors have extreme partisan political views

2

0

23

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

3 years

1/n Super interesting dark store stats from Samokat, a Russian 15-min q-commerce player. Store-level contribution margin of 5% of GMV within 18 months

1

2

23

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

1 year

Previous special refining business $250m EBITDA + new renewable fuels business (just started production this quarter) $500m = $750m EBITDA by 2H 2024 10x EBITDA (similar to DAR, Neste) = $60/share vs. $16 today $CLMT

1

2

22

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

2 years

TG is seeing 5x more inflows than redemptions. Wow.

5

7

21

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

1 year

$SHOP "AMZN is working on a cart solution, which could be launched as early as June"

1

4

21

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

1 year

Unlike $NVDA, a lot of these AI-themed names rallying today won't actually see significant upward earnings revisions in the near term.

2

1

21

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

3 years

$EVO’s competitive advantage: Higher number of concurrent players —> superior customer experience given bigger bonuses/jackpots

Sebastian Johannisson

@Sebasti72452145

3 years

@Lakrixx @mandersson9 Yeah, we are testing at 11k today planning to up it to 15k in due time.

9

174

0

20

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

1 year

The whole avoid capital intensive businesses during periods of high inflation thing really applies to these fiber conversion telco players. Capex just keep getting revised higher.

3

0

19

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

2 years

If FB and YT had acted sooner on short video, Tiktok's user ceiling would've been lower (see SNAP)

1

0

20

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

2 years

The senior most tranche is only an A+ for now. Diversified pool of stakes diversifies risk. Through further optimization and gaming the system, will we see AAA in the future?

2

1

20

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

1 year

TPU pricing Ghostfish training: $12k Ghostlite inference: $1.5k $GOOGL plans to order 300k Ghostfish chips and at least 1 million Ghostlite chips for use in 2025 $AVGO

1

2

19

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

3 years

A developer already published a $RBLX red light/green light game. Such a powerful platform for engagement. #SquidGames

2

0

20

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

2 years

@buccocapital It’s like investing. Gather info, not recommendations. Self reflect. Make decision under uncertainty. Take ownership of consequences.

0

19

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

26 days

JPM upgrades $TKWY $TKWY should "be valued at least similar to pubs and restaurants (rather than tech) and these peers trade on 7x EV/EBITDA for (just) 6% EBITDA CAGR 2024-2026E, while JET’s margin improvement should deliver +23% EBITDA CAGR." Pubs and restaurants. Lol.

2

0

19

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

3 years

Leading indicator for UK, Australia, Canada, and maybe the US. $TKWY $GRUB $UBER $ROO

2

1

19

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

1 year

@DannyOcean555 Avoiding PE ipos is a good filter in general

2

0

19

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

11 months

Incredible podcast on Todd Combs Love the stories about his pre BRK days

Todd Combs - Investing, The Last Liberal Art - [Art of Investing, EP.1]

Listen to this episode from Art of Investing on Spotify. Today’s teacher is Todd Combs, Investment Manager at Berkshire Hathaway and CEO of Geico. In this episode, Todd will share lessons learned...

spotify.link

0

1

18

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

2 years

How does TSLA hit its volume numbers? Assuming a 25% price cut to reach 90% volume growth (in order to hig 1.9m 2023 target) would require a price elasticity of -3.4. ICE/BEV price elasticities are generally >-1.5

4

1

19

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

2 years

@AnabasisCap He’s historically been very aggressive with cutting, sacrificing upside for duration. He’s always operated this way. Result of starting in 99. ITD excluding ‘20 is low teens net.

1

0

19

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

7 months

The number of one year multi baggers of real AI beneficiary businesses with real earnings is incredible $SMCI $NVDA $MOD $CLS $VRT Taiwan hardware names Have there been other periods that have been similiar in terms of sheer number, real earnings, short period of time? Most

6

1

17

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

4 months

Good thread on ZIRP

nuancerocket

@nuancerocket

4 months

$brds -100%

10

5

130

0

2

18

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

2 years

Selling through aggregators and not owning the consumer will likely be the end state for many streaming players

2

0

18

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

1 year

It should've been Ackman who researched and issued a short report on $IEP

1

0

18

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

2 years

Michael Burry pulled a Coatue

1

0

18

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

2 years

For those betting on ad expense leverage $W

3

0

16

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

1 year

@West4thCapital Good capital allocation.50% in nvidia. 50% in smci.

1

0

17

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

30 days

The greatest technology investor of our time No alt data, no Taiwan supply chain checks, did not predict Huawei ban and subsequent market share gains Investment had very little risk of -50%+ that usually comes with most tech investing

3

0

17

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

6 years

@BrettKollmann The continuous chess match wasn’t as interesting? Serious q

1

0

17

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

3 years

$CVNA 's inventory turnover relative to competitors as well as itself pre-COVID is incredible. Power of the biz model and execution continue to shine

2

0

17

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

10 months

@Biohazard3737 Some healthcare PE guys probably saw your track and wish they could've started a firm themselves and be in a position to raise money and own a large % of the GP. Grass is always greener "Choose how you are willing to suffer" great quote

0

17

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

3 years

1/n Big moves in the research resource landscape. @StreamRG @AlphaSenseInc merged. Now @TegusHQ is buying BAMSEC. There is a race to be the aggregator/search index of all external sources of information regarding a company: filings, equity research, expert calls.

2

0

17

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

2 years

$ECN now trades at <10x ‘23 earnings with earnings growing 45-50% next year Asset light loan originator, connects low cost funding banks (low risk) to super prime/prime customers, no recourse on loans, benefits from inflation CEO bought recently

6

0

17

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

2 years

@BowTiedCocoon @eric_seufert Hedge fund managing partner = sales Sad but true

0

17

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

2 years

@PythiaR He’s o/p’ed basically all hfs on a time and aum weighted basis over the last 1-2 decades even with the size/cash/tax drag 🤷‍♂️ Sure net exp is diff but if funds want to lose 2-5%/yr on shorts to earn more fees then that’s their choice. In the end returns are returns

1

0

17

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

2 years

More financial engineering needed as unlevered returns of the underlying assets continue to decline given more buyer competition Use leverage to buy companies Use leverage to fund the fund commitments

1

0

17

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

2 years

Seems like leverage + buy the dip on leverage + PM who is stretched thin and doesn’t know the positions as well anymore + large team = a deadly cocktail for l/s performance over last decade. General observation from a probably not statistically significant sample set.

2

0

15

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

3 years

Super app marathon continues. Everyone will eventually have debit cards, loans, crypto and stock trading, BNPL, ecomm lead gen, xborder conversion etc. Customer engagement is key. Build internally, if too hard or behind, use APIs or buy whole cos.

Revolut, the $33 billion fintech player, is rolling out commission-free stock trading in the U.S.

Revolut hopes to crack the U.S. market with free stock trading.

www.cnbc.com

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

3 years

@CharlieZvible P2P and BNPL are just customer acquisition tools for the eventual financial super app

1

0

2

1

16

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

2 years

Interesting that next-gen European payment companies all have their own acquiring licenses while next-gen US payment companies all ride on top of incumbent acquirer rails, e.g. $SQ --> Chase Paymentech

2

16

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

5 years

The Bezos Formula. Be your own customer for a platform, then open it to others. AWS, Arc (Washington Post), FBA, and now Amazon Channels @stratechery

1

3

15

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

2 months

It's obviously very early days but $AMZN's move into low-priced white label products in order to defend against Temu is reminiscent of $BABA and $JD's moves into low-priced white label goods to defend against $PDD Successfully incubating a business that requires an entirely

2

0

15

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

3 years

1/ I'd love a good bear argument on Afterpay but do have some issues with the Bernstein 70% downside price target initiation.

1

2

15

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

2 years

“No stressed detected from Philippe Laffont as Sia sings next to him.” 80% cash feels good

Sia belts out 'Alive' at a private event | Full performance

Sia belts out 'Alive' live at a private event while sitting without wig🤯#Sia #Alive

www.youtube.com

0

15

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

10 months

"Now, foundries are testing out Chinese-made equipment for every foreign machine they own and if they find that it meets their needs, they replace all of them," he said. "They want as few foreign machines as feasible." China's mature node self sufficiency ratio is 40% and

3

0

14

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

1 year

People raising questions about LLM business models: "For software companies, valuations are typically based on a multiple of rev projections with brownie points for rapid growth, and new capital aims to fund product and sales efforts to reach those revenue projections. By

2

1

15

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

3 years

Re $SQ instant transfer FedNow bear case. There’s a difference between rails and consumer entry point. Today, there are already free/low-cost rails that offer instant payment.

Sosousvlei Cap

@CaptialRubbish

3 years

@CharlieZvible @mfriedrichARK @FIGfluencer think idea is that if free instant transfer is something offered by the banking system it ultimately won’t be something SQ can charge for. Zelle already doesthis I suppose and habits die hard. But I don’t think Cash app will get away with this on consumer side in UK for example

0

1

2

1

13

Dynamic Moats

@DynamicMoats

1 year

CoWoS has 3 steps. TSMC will likely keep 2 steps, with potential outsourcing to OSATs for #3 . OSAT rev/H100 chip potential of $30-50 at ~25-30% GM. Best case 8 digit rev potential? Doesn't move the needle on E. But the multiples can go anywhere given "AI". $3711.TW, $AMKR

0

4

15