Paul Enright @pmje73 Twitter profile

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Paul Enright

@pmje73

2 months

A good part of life rn is seeing/hearing people speak or reading something and then thinking …

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Paul Enright

@pmje73

3 years

Been thinking about the following and think it’s accurate: Great Math + Great Narrative = Consensus Long Great Hidden Math + Bad Current Narrative = Great Long Thesis Bad Math + Bad Narrative = Consensus Short Bad Hidden Math + Great Current Narrative = Great Short Idea

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Paul Enright

@pmje73

2 years

The single biggest fundamental mistake every fundamental investor makes is mistaking the cyclical for the secular and the secular for the cyclical.

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Paul Enright

@pmje73

3 years

Quality as a filter. I read random advice in a magazine on a flight from god knows where over 20 yrs ago still resonates: “Dont buy more clothes, buy better clothes.” It’s true. 1 item at a time. Changed how I approach books. Fewer, better, slower. Works with stocks too and booze

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Paul Enright

@pmje73

3 years

PTON a great case study on shorting fallen angels. You could have shorted it for months between $100-120 and fought the noise daily and made 75-80pct or shorted at $50 on the blow up and made 50pct in 3 months. That’s why true shorting is what justifies fees.

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Paul Enright

@pmje73

1 month

One of the more powerful paragraphs I’ve ever read perfectly describing the intersection of philosophy, psychology and economics …

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Paul Enright

@pmje73

3 years

I’ve used the burden of proof analogy for stocks previously. A huge part of knowing how to react to volatility is understanding whether the burden of proof is on bulls or bears to make their case. This is so hugely underestimated.

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Paul Enright

@pmje73

3 years

Here is a NYT article promoting boosters after infection without any data. It’s purely advocacy, adjectives and opinion. None of the sources cited lin to studies or data. They are just more opinions. Why isn’t this labeled misinformation?

Vinay Prasad MD MPH

@VPrasadMDMPH

3 years

It's debatable if a young person needs a booster at all. After omicron & 2 doses, get outta here Joe Rogan is not the issue. The NYtimes has completely failed it's duties. Interview Paul Offit, Marty Makary or many others who would disagree

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Paul Enright

@pmje73

2 years

I’ve said this before but bears repeating. One of the striking benefits of investing in tech from 09-17 was the biggest and best companies barely competed with one another.

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Paul Enright

@pmje73

3 years

Business “transitions” have been the greatest source of long and short ideas in my career. I think the reason is b/c transitions are difficult to analyze and lend themselves to reasoning by analogy rather than reasoning by first principles.

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Paul Enright

@pmje73

2 years

Macro is always dominating. You just pay attention when it’s negative.

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Paul Enright

@pmje73

2 years

In my experience, valuation alone is often a v good reason to trim, sell or cover a stock, but in isolation, never a great reason to buy or short one.

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Paul Enright

@pmje73

2 years

This dropped during my annual August break. Hope there are a few useful comments in here for folks. Really enjoyed the conversation with Ted and we only touched on a fraction of what we planned.

Ted Seides

@tseides

2 years

Inside long short equity investing with @pmje73 (Paul Enright) of Krainos Capital. With thanks to @teamthirdbridge and @JHIAdvisors .

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Paul Enright

@pmje73

2 years

@PrefShares Investing

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Paul Enright

@pmje73

3 years

Bulls make $, bears make $, and pigs get slaughtered. I strongly believe the only way to make long-term returns that are superior is by being a pig. I think diversification and all the stuff they’re teaching at b school is probably the most misguided concept everywhere - Druck

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Paul Enright

@pmje73

3 years

This FB debate is giving me a headache. Yes they did 40 bn of FCF in 2021 on a current 600 ev. Got it. It’s a 15x trailing multiple nobody should care a damn thing about. What year will they generate 40 billion of FCF again?

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Paul Enright

@pmje73

2 years

@joelmcohen Honestly if I received that advice from a PM I’d walk out of the office and think to myself “WTF does be indispensable mean?” It’s more of a platitude than practical advice imo. It’s like saying “just be great”. Ok cool thanks.

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Paul Enright

@pmje73

3 years

1/A friend mentioned today they have their first year analysts listen to the ILTB pod I did. So I listened for first time since I got the unedited version.

Paul Enright - The Buy Side Primer - [Invest Like the Best, EP. 222]

Episode · Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy · My guest today is Paul Enright, managing partner at Krainos Capital, his family office. Before running his own family office, Paul worked...

open.spotify.com

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Paul Enright

@pmje73

3 years

This hedge fund “growth manager” narrative is idiotic. Hedge funds are supposed to capture spread not hunt growth. Spread can be captured in all markets. Every market every year always always always has spread. Always.

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Paul Enright

@pmje73

2 months

My President

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Paul Enright

@pmje73

2 years

Going to join my friend @tseides for a chat on the relationship/differences between businesses, stock picking (long and short), volatility, and portfolio management. Perhaps with an emphasis on recent performance and true alpha generation. Any q’s/topics we should tease out?

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Paul Enright

@pmje73

3 years

Simplest way of looking at FB: incremental $ growth of advertising y/y v incremental $ of cost growth y/y: '15 - 6.8 bn v 4.2 '16 - 9.8 v 3.5 '17 - 12.6 v 5.3 '18 - 14.7 v 10.5 '19 - 16.3 v 10.8 '20 - 14.6 v 11.6 '21 - 29.1 v 17.9 '22 - $14-16 bn v $20 ish

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Paul Enright

@pmje73

3 years

Sectors as % of SPX 16 to end 21 Energy from 8% to 2.5% Financials 15% to 10.5% Staples 9.5% to 6% Industrials 10% to 8% Materials, utilities, discretionary, health care all flattish Tech 20% to 29% Helps me contextualize all these relative uw/ow stats floating around

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Paul Enright

@pmje73

2 months

An incredibly important question to ask yourself early in your career is whether you are in a situation designed to reveal talents or develop them.

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Paul Enright

@pmje73

2 years

NKE thesis 8 yrs ago was: leveraging technology and distribution better than peers in all categories; can outgrow the industry & multiple is going to 22-23x. Multiple peaked at 40x in ‘21, its currently thesis-less and still trades at 25xish. This isn’t what bottoms look like.

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Paul Enright

@pmje73

3 years

A way to think about portfolio construction is with a mind toward maximizing the # of 500 bps winners while limiting the potential for 50+ bps losers. So much attention gets lost on stock % moves rather than bps impact to performance while that ratio is what drives performance.

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Paul Enright

@pmje73

1 year

Peace out twitter. ✌️ Was fun when it was fun.

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Paul Enright

@pmje73

3 years

Repost: 1-2x a yr the mkt kicks you in the nuts. 1-2x a yr the mkt also rewards you with undeserved riches. If you are an active manager, your approach to the latter will always have an impact on your ability to take advantage of the former. Those are the rules of engagement.

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Paul Enright

@pmje73

3 years

The theme for 21 and Jan letters and messaging seems to be “we are great stock pickers and PMs we just got the macro and the market internals wrong”. I’m still waiting for the 2020 letters that said “we were horrible stock pickers and PMs, but how about that Jay Powell!!!”

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Paul Enright

@pmje73

2 years

@tom_morganKCP The divergence in extending lifespans through medicine without extending peak physical health span will lead to generations of old and immobile miserable people

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Paul Enright

@pmje73

2 years

@patrick_oshag Ja Morant

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Paul Enright

@pmje73

26 days

“Talent hits a target no one else can hit; Genius hits a target no one else can see.” — Arthur Schopenhauer

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Paul Enright

@pmje73

3 years

For FB to be a long here, the thesis must at least partially be last night was in large part an expensive and expansive message to non-shareholders.

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Paul Enright

@pmje73

2 years

@MadThunderdome The only real sustainable bull cases ever are low multiples, liquidity driven multiple expansion, low margins, accelerating revenue growth. I don’t see many of these.

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Paul Enright

@pmje73

1 year

77% of US homes have a mortgage. 91% of them are fixed. 95% of the fixed have a rate below 5%.

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Paul Enright

@pmje73

3 years

Today feels like a good day to re-read a bit of George Soros’ theory of reflexivity.

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Paul Enright

@pmje73

3 years

A great stock picker can learn to be a great LO PM imo. A great short seller may never learn to manage a short book. It is the hardest skill to develop and I’m not sure can be taught. Those that manage real short books know what I mean. Much respect to those that do. 👊

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Paul Enright

@pmje73

2 years

@modestproposal1 Best theses the past decade have been top line growth at all costs price irrelevant Best theses for the foreseeable future are high gross margin, low variable opex at reasonable multiples. Cost of capital and margins

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Paul Enright

@pmje73

2 years

@ramit The ability to say no despite financial consequences

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Paul Enright

@pmje73

2 years

Zuck wore a tie every day in 2009 to prove “it was a serious year” so when he says this is a year of efficiency I’m gonna choose to believe he’s just getting started.

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Paul Enright

@pmje73

2 years

@1MainCapital @realdennishong ‘60 home price/annual income ratio was 2x. 60 to ‘80 home values increased by 4.5x and income 4x. From 80 to 2020 homes rose 6x. Income rose 3x. 2020 ratio of price to income was 4.0x vs 2.0x in 80. Worse even in 22. Base rates matter.

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Paul Enright

@pmje73

3 years

A 🧵to add to this conversation My 3 categories of reasons to sell a stock: 1.) stock reasons, 2.) portfolio reasons, or 3.) Risk mgmt reasons. Stock/portfolio reasons lead to trimming or selling & deploying to another idea. Risk mgmt leads to de-levering or raising cash.

Elliot Turner

@ElliotTurn

3 years

Great thoughts from Michael here

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Paul Enright

@pmje73

3 years

I love a good narrative as much as anyone but if given a choice I’ll take math over narrative every time.

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Paul Enright

@pmje73

2 years

Over 12-18 months dating back to November, multiples will reset to 20-22x, saas and other rev mult stocks will have the cull herded and shitcos will go away. This is all very normal. It’s just happening with a visible war, Covid, inflation, and toxic political theater.

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Paul Enright

@pmje73

2 years

@BrentBeshore Precision of thought, economy of word, and capacity for empathy.

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Paul Enright

@pmje73

1 year

@altcap @theallinpod What system failed? The system is doing its job right now. A bank and its incompetent mgmt failed. Some counter parties that should have known better failed. Some are collateral damage and the system will work now to protect them. Saying the system failed is a complete joke.

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Paul Enright

@pmje73

1 month

This @paulg classic seems particularly relevant right now … Keep Your Identity Small “The more labels you have for yourself, the dumber they make you.”

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Paul Enright

@pmje73

3 years

When earnings are done there will be nothing but volatility between mid feb and the fed. Just FYI. Save some bullets.

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