noah @nkreu113r Twitter profile

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noah

@nkreu113r

3 years

i made a meme about arbitrage

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@pengen_stw

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@kfakesss

@tukimarta

@gray_no_oshi

@WeezyTF2

@KyivCity85

@bornovabld

noah

@nkreu113r

2 years

@__apf__ how did you lose cash if you already had the raw materials i'm genuinely curious

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noah

@nkreu113r

2 months

@sama How on earth does that clause “accidentally” wind up in an off boarding agreement? Obviously you know it’s not standard

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noah

@nkreu113r

2 months

@RokoMijic Women definitely are not treated well during wartime this is nuts

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@nkreu113r

3 months

@prerationalist When someone says you share 50% of genes with your sibling, they mean 50% of the genes that vary within human population

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@nkreu113r

2 months

@AgustinLebron3 Adverse selection increases as size increases. Your good quotes get filled less and less as you size up. Your bad quotes always get filled to the max.

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noah

@nkreu113r

25 days

@buccocapital Lawyer is much more of a lottery than tech. Your “bear case” in tech is making like 120k for not that much work (and historically at least) facing a very liquid job market. Your “bear case” in law is not getting biglaw and making like 90k for more hours. Medicine is different

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noah

@nkreu113r

1 year

@GarrettPetersen the actual problem is that provocation, if a legal act, shouldn't eliminate self defense rights. there should never be a legal act that, if committed near the wrong person, forces you to choose between death and guilt of murder.

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noah

@nkreu113r

3 years

@clairlemon One of my pet theories is that many people who are supposedly "high empathy" are actually just highly effective at interacting with their own neurotype. Conversely, many people who are "neurodiverse" seem to be quite capable of understanding and cooperating with those like them!

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noah

@nkreu113r

2 years

@essdoubleyousee @NextLAMayor @POTUS Sotomayor is in fact underqualified and this is fairly often acknowledged in the legal community.

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noah

@nkreu113r

4 years

@Austen It's crazy how much of my time in HS was spent learning fairly useless/narrow math. High school technical curriculum should focus on algebra/stats, microecon and comp sci. Throw in "how to take a derivative" so the micro makes sense.

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noah

@nkreu113r

2 years

@Scott_Wiener "Stop sleeping with new people for a few months to stop the spread" is an orders of magnitude smaller ask than "stay inside, wear a mask if you must go out, work and go to school remotely for a year, remember to put your mask on between sips if you are drinking at a restaurant"

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noah

@nkreu113r

2 years

@mattyglesias It's "law and humanities" vs other disciplines. Law is really about power but pretends it's not just Calvinball. Humanities don't even pretend that there is some notion of objective truth. This doesn't fly in STEM or business, where ideas are tested against reality/markets.

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noah

@nkreu113r

6 months

@Devon_Eriksen_ Unthinkably cruel for an only child whose parents were worth 100m to only inherit 30m when they come of age. Oh the pathos! Oh the humanity! Truly there is no justice in this fallen world. Won’t someone think of the children?

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noah

@nkreu113r

2 years

@sweatystartup the best way for people to not know about your "generational wealth" is to stop tweeting about it

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noah

@nkreu113r

3 months

@lillybilly299 So did the cultural revolution

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noah

@nkreu113r

3 years

@mattyglesias A good rule that is inconsistently applied is far worse than no rule at all. "For my friends, anything; for my enemies, the law" is the most effective way for totalitarianism to operate

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noah

@nkreu113r

3 months

@wanyeburkett yeah there should be assets that you can buy that just go up and up forever with no risk and by virtue of getting born earlier than everyone else you should get to extract rents from the rest of society until you die

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@nkreu113r

1 year

@maiamindel "women get paid less for the same work" and "women get paid less because they do different work" are uh, different claims about the world that it is worth distinguishing between. there are a lot of people who would find the former morally wrong but the latter potentially fair..

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noah

@nkreu113r

20 days

@MarkGutman9 If we’re talking nominal, you can guarantee this with treasuries right? At least for 30 years

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noah

@nkreu113r

4 months

@jam3scampbell what if you make 500k by being good at statistics

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noah

@nkreu113r

3 years

This is the strangest thing I have read, perhaps ever, and I cannot recommend it enough.

Zero HP Lovecraft 🦅🐍

@0x49fa98

3 years

My friends, it has been so long since we've had a heart to heart, and I've missed you. This is my latest work, Don't Make Me Think, and I would like to apologize in advance to anyone who knows anything about neuroscience. Please read it with an open mind

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noah

@nkreu113r

7 months

@RuxandraTeslo the most plausible scenario in my view would be a bioweapon. this would probably require finding a few humans to physically synthesize proteins but this is not that hard. the argument goes that a sufficiently smart AI could design an omnicidal plague from first principles

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noah

@nkreu113r

1 month

@dailydirtnap @nope_its_lily you are allowed to disclose that you have a position in a stock. hedge funds have done this forever. the fact that retail can be predicted to react stupidly to legal speech can't make that speech illegal. you can't lose rights because a third party might act unreasonably.

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noah

@nkreu113r

2 years

@Richard_Vixen quantitative finance, esoteric stem academic, art curator (right wing), management consulting, private tutor

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noah

@nkreu113r

2 years

@AnthonyLeeZhang I don't understand why in god's name a pair of billionaire ex-prop traders would take a long term leveraged position in a 100+ vol asset class. Maybe there's a selection effect where the sort of people who do this are the sort of people who become cryptorich in first place?

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@nkreu113r

1 year

@RokoMijic C should be higher lmao this is insane

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noah

@nkreu113r

10 months

@RichardHanania not requiring high school classes is great. there should just be a standardized test for admission that covers all the requisite subjects. but yeah it seems like caltech might have other goals

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@nkreu113r

2 years

@SBF_FTX stocks to trade on a limit order book that offers direct access to retail

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@nkreu113r

1 month

@WilliamAEden Abolition of slavery. More broadly: equal rights under the law.

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@nkreu113r

1 year

@chribreuer Social skill depends on both mental distance from others and skill at bridging mental distance. If you hold the latter constant and increase the former, you become more awkward and alienated from the "median human".

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noah

@nkreu113r

8 months

@Alkibiades_ can you explain briefly if/why cruelty here is good

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noah

@nkreu113r

8 months

@constans bap and his consequences were a disaster for middling gymbros

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noah

@nkreu113r

4 months

@Aella_Girl I think this says more about “women who follow aella” than “women broadly”

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noah

@nkreu113r

2 years

@pawnofcthulhu obviously chess should just be gender neutral lol. there's no reason to have separate leagues for women at all

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noah

@nkreu113r

3 years

@mattyglesias Yes the misogyny in his book is bad. But: 1) Apple knew about it when they hired him 2) Dr. Dre's lyrics are much much worse; he's on the board of directors 3) People who write things attacking "men in tech" as obnoxious entitled shitlords seem to be able to get jobs in SV

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noah

@nkreu113r

2 years

why don't all financial markets trade 24/7? if I wanna buy yolo calls at 3am how can it possibly be in citadel's interest to stop me

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noah

@nkreu113r

2 years

@NathanJRobinson @mtaibbi uhhh how does elon buying twitter *change* this? old twitter was pretty narrowly beholden

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noah

@nkreu113r

3 years

@AndrewYang I'm surprised and disappointed you can support this. Cash transfers to the poor are ofc great. But cash earmarked for specific races/genders/etc is deeply wrong, and likely unconstitutional. Capitulating to the far-left identitarians to advance UBI is a devil's bargain.

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@nkreu113r

7 months

@benlandautaylor Technically you do not need to be able to win a war for it to be worth fighting, under certain decision theories. You just need to be able to impose enough costs on your enemy that they would wish you hadn't been motivated to declare war.

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noah

@nkreu113r

2 years

We should go one step further and privately assure Putin he'll be safe in London in a nice mansion with millions of dollars and great medical care if his advisors coup him. Hell we should offer to help him evacuate. Anything to make the stakes less existential for him personally

toly 🇺🇸 | compressed

@aeyakovenko

2 years

@twobitidiot No regime change! That’s def a path to ww3

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@nkreu113r

2 years

@moonbeamdreams_ Probably "approach more men" is the advice I'd give. This archetype of person is not - or should not be - trying to date someone who is used to successfully approaching women. Men who don't get a lot of female attention will probably be flattered even if they're not max attracted

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@nkreu113r

2 years

@essdoubleyousee @Ladydiana7979 @NextLAMayor @POTUS More importantly though, credentials != qualifications. Sotomayor is often underinformed about current events (see her comment about there being hundreds of thousands of kids on ventilators from COVID) and frequently evinces simplistic thinking in her legal opinion writing.

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@nkreu113r

3 years

@LeahGolubchick This is actually pretty entitled - it's like a fusion between the CA boomer attitude of "I shouldn't pay property taxes on a home that appreciated 10x since I bought it" and the downwardly mobile Millennial attitude of "the world is broken if I'm lower class than my parents"

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noah

@nkreu113r

2 months

@FischerKing64 what if we consciously chose to make this country a mecca for the top 10% of global human talent?

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noah

@nkreu113r

1 year

@pfau imo it is useful for one thing - reformatting data! recently I had to define a dictionary in Python based on an inconsistently described natural language string. put it into chat gpt - boom done. Saved me twenty plus minutes by hand.

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@nkreu113r

1 month

@TylerAlterman i think the part about the abstractions not mapping onto the actual world is just wrong. if there were no valid map to practical things then they wouldn't be useful

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noah

@nkreu113r

2 years

My girlfriend is incredible - flew back early from China to surprise me on NYE

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noah

@nkreu113r

1 year

@AaronBergman18 @then_there_was this seems like by far the most likely explanation. it's a good bit though. masterful troll well done.

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@nkreu113r

2 years

@jasonintrator Sounds like you’ve got the best words

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@nkreu113r

7 months

@dumbreepicheep What you describe is all taxation. Insofar as we have taxes, it seems better to tax unproductive things (like inheritance and landowning) than productive things like labor and smart investments

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@nkreu113r

1 year

everything is genetic except behavior, which emerges miraculously from the depths of each individual's soul

Nick Diller

@_Nick_Diller

1 year

This is the person who’s going to be setting dietary guidelines. Idk how anyone takes health advice from the government seriously

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@nkreu113r

7 months

@Devon_Eriksen_ What if we only change taxation for individual inheritances > 10m? The point of inheritance taxes was never to destroy families. It’s to raise revenue in a non distortionary way and prevent aristocracy. There’s no reason “regular people” would need to be affected - just people

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@nkreu113r

3 years

@jasonintrator Imagine having an opinion on financial regulation without working in finance, or on economic policy without formal study of economics. All disputes should be settled by whoever has the most impressive credentials and/or largest pile of money.

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@nkreu113r

1 year

@FischerKing64 Data is just data, but it's also very clear that Asians are the most discriminated against group. Switching to totally blind admissions actually makes the white share go down slightly (but crucially, the whites that would get in would be a very different group).

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@nkreu113r

3 months

@RokoMijic Synthetic meat will almost surely be followed by the realization that meat-eating (or at least factory farming) was a moral tragedy. People will be more, not less, accepting of trans people when technology improves to a point where a trans woman and a cis woman really are

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@nkreu113r

2 years

@essdoubleyousee @Ladydiana7979 @NextLAMayor @POTUS Kagan, Roberts and ACB are much more capable jurists. Sotomayor has even said that she did not get into Princeton/Yale on merit, and was only admitted through affirmative action. And while she claims to have "succeeded" at those institutions she was pretty academically average.

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@nkreu113r

3 years

@bennpeifert Compounding. If you go up 50% one day then down 50% the next, you're down 25% overall. Geometric mean of returns determines CAGR, so dropping best and worst days improves returns. This is also why volatility skew is a thing.

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@nkreu113r

2 years

@varianceswap @KDhinakaran Peak intellectual progress in the US happened during an era where everyone was buzzed on nicotine 24/7. How do you think Simons wrote all those papers?

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@nkreu113r

1 year

@ryxcommar the rub is that you can have a 1600 and also not get into berkeley

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@nkreu113r

7 months

@Ianwest57 @Devon_Eriksen_ The word for people who inherit tens of millions of dollars worth of real estate is "aristocrats". That's well above the top 1%. Letting families compound massive amounts of wealth intergenerationally is how you get an aristocracy. Particularly wrt land, which has inherently

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@nkreu113r

16 days

@point_cultural @eyeslasho @PamelaL98281927 @MattWalshBlog things should be legal by default

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@nkreu113r

8 months

@BullandBaird i assume this is a masterful troll in which case well done

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@nkreu113r

2 months

@michael_nielsen Bridgewater is publicly pursuing this to some degree - they have a partnership with Metaculus. Jane Street used to have recruiting ads in the blog roll of SSC

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@nkreu113r

2 months

@WarrenInTheBuff Sell shovel manufacturing services

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@nkreu113r

7 months

@adrusi The latter contains a lot of info about the former. It’s not that the old sins can’t be forgiven, but a condition for that forgiveness ought to be actively avoiding extreme situations where bad behaviors - or even their appearance - could repeat.

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@nkreu113r

2 years

@RichardHanania this is a masterful troll

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@nkreu113r

2 months

@Noahpinion 1-2 billion seems right

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@nkreu113r

2 years

@Aella_Girl @Ace_ITH i mean i think their argument would be something along the lines of "even if it makes *you* happy it has bad externalities, so you shouldn't do it" "what if promiscuity is best for *me*" is pretty similar to the hedge fund manager going "what if capitalism is best for *me*"

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@nkreu113r

1 year

@RokoMijic a good starting point would be "how high can we make C relative to B without making the contract unstable"

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@nkreu113r

1 year

@peterwildeford realistically i think it's an edgy marketing joke. and a pretty good one. but to the extent people take it seriously, it's all upside for the restaurant

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@nkreu113r

4 years

@NateSilver538 Prediction: many corporations will realize that employees "working from home" is often good for their bottom line. But this will come at the same time as society at large realizes how much they value the little social interactions that comprise the day-to-day of most people.

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@nkreu113r

2 years

@gbrl_dick what percentage of people in finance do you think can do options pricing math? what percentage of people in options trading do you think can do options pricing math? make a market pls

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@nkreu113r

2 months

@KyrstensCloset @elmaoist I’m confused why your mom selling her house would lead to homelessness. I don’t know too many homeless millionaires.

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@nkreu113r

8 months

@JimDMiller Wait this is easy to imagine. It's just a society where the average IQ is 70, so 80 is slightly above average and 120 is a 3.3 sigma outlier. Highly unlikely the 120s come to dominate that society.

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@nkreu113r

2 years

Starting a new job in a month! Spending a year as a cryptodegenerate was, uh, quite the experience but I am pleased to announce that I will once more have health insurance paid for by someone else.

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@nkreu113r

9 days

@catpoopburglar @cremieuxrecueil Private equity is a scam and they don’t allocate capital well at all. Mainly they serve to obfuscate leverage.

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@nkreu113r

2 years

@KennethHayworth let's consider all the implications though:

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@nkreu113r

2 years

@Historycourses I am generally against tearing down statues and judging complicated historical figures based on their worst aspects, but Leopold was less a Thomas Jefferson and more a Hitler. This is not something that was covered in detail in K-12 for me and it probably should have been.

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@nkreu113r

1 year

the best trades are all low status and cringe. there's a "cringe premium"

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@nkreu113r

3 years

@zhusu @Darrenlautf This seems really fundamental to capitalism lol. Very common for workers to A) add millions or more in marginal value relative to no worker B) add hundreds of thousands in marginal value relative to their potential replacement, if that. They get paid hundreds of thousands.

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@nkreu113r

3 months

@bronzeagemantis The job pays a lot of money and being good at the job requires genuine interest. Assuming the comp is high and fair, this hiring process is reasonable.

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@nkreu113r

7 months

@ilex_ulmus It’s probably one of those things that is endearing if and only if you already love the person

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@nkreu113r

2 years

@gracemercur @Richard_Vixen the two genders

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@nkreu113r

2 years

@litcapital wait how could this possibly be illegal are you proposing some legal regime where "knowing that degenerates are copytrading you" relieves you of your rights?

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@nkreu113r

2 years

@eugyppius1 The problem with BAPism is that tech progress has rendered many trad male virtues obsolete. Strong arms don't win wars or explore frontiers anymore. Fitness is good for mental acuity and risk tolerance - both v important - but the "barbarian king" phenotype isn't directly useful

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@nkreu113r

2 months

@antoniogm Irrevocable immortality seems terrible but "life and health until you consent to death" seems great. Odds that biology just happened to give us the optimal lifespan from a "human thriving" standpoint seem basically zero

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@nkreu113r

3 years

@micsolana There are two paths I think: 1) Be hot and/or good at networking; have a good intuition for social winds and political maneuvering 2) Be clever enough to see the world clearly and catch trends early; be risk neutral enough to wager a sizeable portion of your stack

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@nkreu113r

9 months

@ArmandDoma @MichaelKogan14 To be honest I really doubt that anyone in Hamas senior leadership living outside of Gaza is particularly safe.

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@nkreu113r

3 months

@lillybilly299 Caltech but they dropped out

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@nkreu113r

5 months

@Duderichy there are a lot more tail outcomes than there are people who are innately tail outcomes imo

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@nkreu113r

3 months

@thinkagainer Why do might you not want the job? Getting promoted early is very +EV if you can do it well and like the work

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@nkreu113r

2 years

@sheslostheplot in no particular order: attunement to social context, good taste in aesthetics, personal elegance, the quality of being empathetic/nurturing (also: femininity is not the highest virtue in women just as masculinity is not the highest virtue in men)

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@nkreu113r

2 years

@hamandcheese Do you want to bet on this? If you buy me takeout from a Michelin star restaurant and from an Applebee’s, I will pay you $10k if I can’t tell which is which

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@nkreu113r

2 months

@revhowardarson To be fair, guessing who did it and beating them to death is “lindy”

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@nkreu113r

2 years

@goodalexander @gvtunney Ok I thought about it a bit more and this guy almost certainly did a levered short on UST. Good job guy! That’s basically the only sane way to 5x your net worth shorting crypto.

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@nkreu113r

2 months

An underappreciated elite selection criterion is the relative lack of need for sleep. My guess is that being a “four hours a night” kind of person is worth at least 10-15 IQ points in modern society

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@nkreu113r

3 years

@ChenWainuo @mangomarkets bro these are rookie numbers

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@nkreu113r

7 months

@adrusi Once you’ve been convicted of rape, it’s reasonable for society to condition its forgiveness of you on you avoiding certain high-base-rate-of-harm behaviors and activities forever.

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@nkreu113r

2 years

@acidshill i think cults are not actually that useful for other things unless your followers are unusual people. if one were to, somehow, systematically ensnare a small number of *uniquely intelligent* people into a cult, then maybe one could start trying to build god in a box or something

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