Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷 @peterwildeford Twitter profile

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

4 years

It amazes me how much of science is powered by a single Kazakhstani woman who does crimes

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

1 year

Optical illusion technology is becoming a bit too powerful, pt 20

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

2 years

This is the most amazing graph. On this scale, only the industrial revolution has mattered. The rise and fall of Rome, several different times losing ~10% of population, major shifts in the social order and we just keep humming along in what looks like a flat line until BAM

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

2 years

Wow, Americans get murdered a lot more than Europeans

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

2 years

Me attempting to teach math to GPT3

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

24 days

Predicting ten years into the future is hard

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

1 year

Some weird reasoning from GPT4

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

2 years

Woah, I had no idea that new SI prefixes dropped last year

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

2 years

ChatGPT: Explain HTML to me like I'm a dog

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

1 year

This is what AI predictions feel like

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

6 months

ChatGPT is just like us... it also struggles to not think about an elephant

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

2 years

My wife, Samantha, passed away this afternoon. Her life wasn't always the best, but she filled it with such love and kindness to everyone. She touched so many people and I'm really happy to have been a part of that. She was my best friend and I will miss her very much.

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

1 year

WTF!

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

2 years

GPT-3 does math better if you tell it that does math. I think it just needs the encouragement.

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

2 years

The simplest way to trick the AI is to ask what day it is today.

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

2 years

Sometimes, GPT3's commitment to not giving definitive answers to questions that could be controversial is taken to the comical extreme

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

2 months

I love how much Texas basically hates their own solar and wind industries but they can't stop building simply because they actually manage to just not be insufferably bureaucratic Other states could do this

Alec Stapp

@AlecStapp

2 months

Texas leading the US in wind power by a country mile.

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

11 months

respect the hustle

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

2 years

Speaking to ChatGPT in perfect Danish, while it insists throughout that it can't speak or understand Danish.

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

2 years

Requiring pre-registration made a dramatic change in the reported outcomes of drug trials

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

1 year

Hollow gospel of "effective altruism" - give away millions of dollars to restore sight to blind people True altruism, not hollow at all - Do nothing to help other people, complain endlessly on the internet about other's efforts, never offer any suggestions for how to do better

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

2 years

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

2 years

Myth reality

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

1 year

I think about this a lot. Pretty relevant for anyone trying to forecast the next forty years.

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

1 month

Really wild here that Google had GPT-3-level compute back in 2017 but the best they did with it was play Go really well.

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

1 month

Wild - Pope Francis became the first pontiff to address a G7 summit and his main message was to warn about AI.

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

2 years

People don't like it when we assign kinda made-up numbers like 8% to the risk of nuclear war within the next year, but honestly what the heck are you supposed to do with nonsense phrases like "unlikely but not altogether implausible"?

Dr. Peter Scoblic

@PeterScoblic

2 years

I grow weary: "A nuclear strike is unlikely but not altogether implausible, experts told Insider."

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

1 year

@Willyintheworld A larger component here IMO is a strong default away from admitting that there is no reasonable answer, instead hallucinating something. It consistently gets questions correct when there is a correct answer.

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

1 year

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

2 years

Look, I really didn't want to write about this, but here we are. I'm very upset with Nick Bostrom. His original email was terrible, racist, and offensive. His apology was absolutely idiotically executed. Here I explain why I feel this way.

Why I'm personally upset with Nick Bostrom right now

Content warning: discusses race, links to a piece that contains an unredacted racial slur, written while I am very angry Nick Bostrom is not a person I have ever spent much time thinking about and is...

www.pasteurscube.com

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

2 years

GPT3 notoriously gives evasive answers on questions of social controversy. However, if you make GPT3 say there is a clear answer, it will give one.

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

2 years

Things happen about 35% of the time

Stefan Schubert

@StefanFSchubert

2 years

"41% of PredictionBook questions and 29% of resolved Metaculus questions had resolved positively"

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

2 months

Do any financial advisors here on this app know what percentage of your net worth it is advisable to invest in the fact that Biden is definitely going to be the Democratic nominee? PredictIt is somehow selling this outcome for 83c on the dollar.

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

3 months

Still crazy to me that one of the earliest concrete public warnings about COVID came in late January from an anonymous forecaster on a forecasting platform.

Metaculus

@metaculus

4 years

On January 24th, the number one predictor on Metaculus, an anonymous user who goes by the handle traviswfisher, revised down his prediction on the question “will the world population increase every year for the next decade?”. (1/4)

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

2 months

awkward

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

1 year

Effective altruism is three radical ideas I want to protect Until someone creates a social movement that better embodies radical empathy, scope sensitivity, and the scout mindset, I'm going to continue to value effective altruism highly.

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

9 months

This is what an unexpected capabilities advance from scaling can look like

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

2 years

I regret to inform you that AI capabilities are going faster than we thought

Jacob Steinhardt

@JacobSteinhardt

2 years

To give an idea of just how much SOTA exceeded forecasters' expectations, here are the prediction intervals for the MATH and Massive Multitask benchmarks. Both outcomes exceeded the 95th percentile prediction.

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

2 years

Early warning systems enabled by strong forecasters make a difference @metaculus

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

2 years

Being poor in the United States is not fun and should be fixed, but it's important to still recognize that poverty in Ethiopia and other low income nations is much much worse.

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

1 month

Still wild how concentrated the supply chain is across all the steps needed to make advanced computer chips

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

2 years

More people need to hear good news on climate: * Previously 4ºC warming was the median path. Now, thanks to hard work on policy/advocacy, the chance of that is ~5% * Median now 2.7ºC * Chance of 6ºC warming from ~10% to <1% Keep up the momentum! From:

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

9 days

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

1 year

WTF

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

3 years

I like 538 but I'm pretty sure this is how it works these days

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

2 years

This is what the AI thinks social interaction looks like.

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

23 days

Regulators will block scientific and economic progress to save nine birds, and then go to KFC for dinner. I'm begging for some sanity when it comes to how we protect animals and balance these trade-offs.

Alec Stapp

@AlecStapp

24 days

What’s more important: 1) Connecting the entire world via telecommunications satellites & becoming an interplanetary species Or 2) Protecting 9 bird nests in a tiny corner of Texas

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

1 year

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

2 years

Wow, 2022 has been a pretty wild year in AI developments. Time to reset the clock.

Google DeepMind

@GoogleDeepMind

2 years

Gato🐈a scalable generalist agent that uses a single transformer with exactly the same weights to play Atari, follow text instructions, caption images, chat with people, control a real robot arm, and more: Paper: 1/

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

2 years

Effective altruists: Collectively we've raised $500M to address global health and are aiming to do $1B/yr by 2025. 23% of us are vegan and another 23% of us are vegetarian. Recently a lot of us are worried about AI and pandemics too. Weaver: Why are EAs so greedy?

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

1 year

This is equal parts adorable and terrifying

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

8 months

Guy goes to a doctor. "Doctor, the world makes no sense." Doctor looks at him and says: "Treatment is simple! Forecaster convention is in town. Go talk to the top forecasters. That will make things make sense." The man bursts into tears: "But doctor, I am a top forecaster."

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

2 years

Pretty crazy this isn't more widely known: In 1961, a nuclear bomb was accidentally dropped by the US on the US. Three of the four failsafes failed. Only a single failsafe averted the deaths of millions of people.

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

1 year

Oppenheimer vs. Barbie trends make for a very competitive electoral map

Ryan Letourneau

@Northernlion

1 year

Can I say something without people getting mad

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

2 years

Elon Musk is a smart man but he's not good at forecasting.

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

1 year

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

2 months

lol Sam Altman got community noted

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

2 years

Good point - Sequoia and others invested hundreds of millions in FTX without uncovering the fraud or massive lapses in governance despite direct access to due diligence. Understandable that EA wasn't able to see this coming.

Eliezer Yudkowsky ⏹️

@ESYudkowsky

2 years

Your incredibly obvious reminder that MANY people besides FTX's charity recipients had HIGH personal stakes in guessing whether FTX was stealing customer deposits; and the supermajority of those people, who were much deeper into cryptostuff, did not publicly guess this right.

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

2 years

This is what effective altruists actually believe

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

5 months

Bragging time: I'm good at forecasting (at least 98th percentile)! After getting 20th place in the 2022 ACX forecasting competition, I got 12th place in the 2023 competition! My scores were better than the entire @metaculus community (of which I was part)!

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

2 years

Progress is possible! We can identify threats to our future and we can craft policies to solve those threats! Let's keep up this good work!

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

2 months

OpenAI has a had a year's worth of corporate scandal in four days -- Thu: Lead safety researcher leaves, posts thread saying the company isn't prioritizing safety Fri: Equity controversy Today: Scarlett Johansson controversy Yikes.

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

1 year

Just saw existential risk on CBS News - the normie news that my parents watch!

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

2 years

How have US gas prices been able to come down this fast? I definitely didn't expect this.

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

7 months

I'm happy that I've gave away a third of my income this year. I know not everyone can do this, but more people can do it than they think, and more people should really sincerely try... 33% or 10% or 5%, but try! There's so many problems we can solve!

Giving What We Can

100x your impact by finding and donating to the best charities. Learn about high-impact philanthropy, join an effective giving community, take a giving pledge.

www.givingwhatwecan.org

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

1 year

It's done - I found the best possible intervention for doing good

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

2 years

Wow, it looks like most of what I knew about Japan is outdated. Japan builds a lot, has reasonably good fertility, and has increased immigration.

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

8 months

Still wild you can just like save a life for $5000 If my life were on the line, I sure hope someone would pay at least $5000

GiveWell

@GiveWell

8 months

Our 2023 giving recommendations are in! We estimate that donations to the programs we recommend can save a life for roughly $5,000 on average. Read our blog post to learn how you can make the most impact with your charitable donations this giving season.

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

3 years

Crazy to think how worried the world used to be (and sometimes still is) about overpopulation when it now seems like underpopulation looks much more concerning (relatively, and at least for now).

Alec Stapp

@AlecStapp

3 years

Elon is right - the total fertility rate in the US has declined from 2.12 in 2007 to 1.64 in 2020 - half the world’s population lives in countries with below-replacement-level fertility - China now has a fertility rate even lower than Japan’s

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

2 years

@lxeagle17 to be fair she does start her take by saying “I’m dumb”

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

2 years

Classic mistake: forgetting to specify *positive* impact

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

1 year

Another amazing win from community notes

Reuters

@Reuters

1 year

Exclusive: Aspartame, one of the world's most common artificial sweeteners, is set to be declared a possible carcinogen next month by a leading global health body, pitting it against the food industry and regulators

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

2 years

Natália 🔍

@natalia__coelho

2 years

I’ve been investigating the contamination theory of the obesity epidemic as laid out in @mold_time ’s “A Chemical Hunger,” and found that several of what seem to be the strongest arguments for the theory turned out to be dubious. 🧵

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

2 years

Very few people who bash 538 have a better track record than 538.

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

1 year

Good Evening, "Robert F. Kennedy, Jr." was a one month political science field experiment conducted by Harvard University to test the impact of name recognition. We are now complete with our study. Thank you for your time.

Patrick Ruffini

@PatrickRuffini

1 year

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is the most popular presidential candidate, with a net positive favorability rating of +14

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

4 months

@kartographien @g_leech_ Why not say 942USD 20240322?

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

9 months

Once I got over the shock of Lina Khan talking about p(doom), I realize it's kinda bonkers we're talking about a 15% chance of global catastrophe by AI as optimism. I don't want to accept that high of a risk!

Liron Shapira

@liron

9 months

FTC Chair Lina Khan ( @linakhanFTC ) says her P(Doom) is 15%. This is fine…

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

2 years

The preparedness paradox is perhaps the most important bias today - when preparedness works, it looks like preparedness was unnecessary.

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

2 years

I don't know why I do this but I have a weird habit of pressing send on an email and then proofreading it thoroughly after it's been sent.

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

2 years

This is how the large language models actually think

no context the good place

@nocontexttgp

4 years

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

1 year

Also this:

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

4 years

damn this blew up. let me plug my soundcloud ...Ok, I don't have a soundcloud but I do have a job opportunity! If you're a researcher and want to get paid to save the world and not deal with academia BS, apply here!

Hiring for Researcher - Multiple Positions (Remote/Anywhere, Part-Time or Full-Time)

Posted by : Rethink Priorities |

rethinkpriorities.freshteam.com

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

1 year

This picture is a pretty good litmus test for politics: do you regard this with respect, or disgust?

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

3 years

Chickens dwarf pigs / sheep / goat / cattle, but... ...fish dwarf chicken ...insects are on par with fish ...and everything is dominated by shrimp So actually animal welfare is basically shrimp welfare

Alec Stapp

@AlecStapp

3 years

Animal welfare is basically chicken welfare

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

1 year

TBH "complex but wrong" is also fairly common and underrated. Way more common than "complex but right". And I think "simple but right" is underrated as well.

Wise Wonderer | Daily Thoughts

@WiseWondererDT

1 year

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

3 years

This VA GOV race is very interesting because it's such a showdown between the fundamentals and the polls

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

2 years

My wife, Samantha Wildeford, passed away this week. To honor her memory, I present Samantha’s eight rules for life:

Samantha's Eight Rules of Life, a Eulogy

My wife, Samantha Wildeford, passed away this week. While I'm sad that she's gone, I'm so happy she could pass away with myself and all the others who loved her. Her life wasn't always kind to her,...

www.pasteurscube.com

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

2 years

Gave GPT one of those (not-scientific) online IQ tests. It got 6 of the 10 questions correctly. The website says this "indicates an IQ score between 105 and 120". So I guess the AI is human-level now?

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

18 days

Honestly this seems like a genuinely good idea.

johnny maga

@_johnnymaga

18 days

Trump offers to go with Biden to take a cognitive test, says presidents’ should be required to take one 👀

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

2 years

I turned it into a yard sign

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

1 year

As a huge Taylor Swift fan I hesitate to say this, but I think she is getting too powerful. She's had multiple unexpected capability advances this year and is now even creating minor earthquakes. If we extrapolate this over the next decade, it points to us losing control.

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

2 months

Nerdy, but this from Jeff Kaufman has become a staple for my productivity.

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

4 months

Reminder that people who think there hasn't been technological progress in the past twenty years are under-rock-dwellers that have somehow never heard of LLMs, CRISPR, mRNA, semaglutide, the revolution in Solar energy, or 5G. Not to mention your laptop is ~32x faster now

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

2 years

Supporting more Russian-to-US immigration does sound like one of the best things we could be doing for both the US and for hindering Russia. Why don't we do much strategic immigration initiatives?

Alec Stapp

@AlecStapp

2 years

The best time to start brain draining Russia was after Putin annexed Crimea in 2014 The second best time to start brain draining Russia is today

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

1 year

Imagine you're about to get on an airplane and 48% of the engineers that built the airplane say there's a >=10% chance that their plane might crash and kill everyone. Would you get on that plane? That's where we are at with AI right now.

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

2 months

@KelseyTuoc You're a hero, Kelsey. Thank you for everything you do.

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

2 years

Find it hard to stay up to date with the large volume of content on the EA Forum and Lesswrong? My assistant Zoe Williams is now reading the EA Forum and Lesswrong so you don't have to! Here's the first weekly summary

EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (21 Aug - 27 Aug 22’) — EA Forum

Supported by Rethink Priorities • Sunday August 21st - Saturday August 27th …

forum.effectivealtruism.org

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

2 years

This is crazy. Go to the IPCC 2015 estimate for solar. Use their most *optimistic* forecast, not their actual expectation. Use the value for *2030*, not 2022. We've already exceeded that. We're so good at solar.

Hannah Ritchie

@_HannahRitchie

2 years

Just looking at the 'Shared Economic Pathways' used in the IPCC reports. The most optimistic scenario – SSP1 – has global solar output at around 1,000 TWh by 2030. In 2021, we *already* produced this amount from solar. A decade earlier.

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

1 year

Gonna be a killjoy but: 1.) Can't you already expense food? 2.) If you cannot expense food, this is just fraud?

Joshua Goodfield

@joshuagoodfield

1 year

💀💀 a Toronto restaurant renamed its menu items as office supplies so people could expense their meals. I’ve seen it all.

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Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷

@peterwildeford

6 months

Disagree, vision pro is the seventh best and the ranking is: 1.) LLMs 2.) CRISPR 3.) mRNA vaccines 4.) semaglutide 5.) Perovskite solar cell 6.) Faster internet 7.) Apple Vision Pro

Sam Altman

@sama

6 months

vision pro is second most impressive tech since the iphone

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