William Eden @WilliamAEden Twitter profile

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

6 months

Wow the “my eyes hurt” Google trend is real, not just a meme, oh nooo Check out that spatial distribution too, it follows the path of the eclipse 😭

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

5 months

The next time someone gaslights you that tech stagnation isn’t real, send them this tweet:

Curiosity

@MAstronomers

5 months

66 years apart

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

9 months

My mind is still blown that literal Gigachad Henry Cavill turned out to secretly be the nerdiest of all possible nerds, not just playing video games several hours/day but *also* collecting Warhammer miniatures, the most low-status male-coded hobby in existence

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

3 years

I figure it’s worth posting a summary thread about my current thoughts on COVID to refer back to: Like many great blunders in history, we went into this without an exit plan. The landscape has changed such that risk is now individual cost/benefit more than public health. 1/

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

5 months

TIL that an apparently effective treatment for warts is… duct tape?? Not even joking, they did a randomized trial, and it outperformed freezing the warts off!

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

2 years

My Twitter timeline is full of panicked takes about imminent AI apocalypse and certain doom. I think this is starting to get overplayed, and so I want to make a long thread about why I'm personally not worried yet. Get ready for a big one... 1/n

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

2 years

Peter Daszak has received another grant from the NIH… …to study bat coronaviruses in the wild. After everything the world has just been though. After all the risky research that was supposed to protect us from a global pandemic failed to stop one.

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

2 years

I have never seen the narrative so divided before: Normies are only talking about the election The extremely online are only talking about FTX OSINT is only talking about Kherson Legacy bluechecks are only talking about Elon destroying Twitter

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

1 year

I’m not sure exactly what I expected the world to look like when AI safety went mainstream, but I wasn’t prepared for this

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

3 years

If you can identify all four quadrants you are Extremely Online

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

10 months

TIL that in the late 1700s men cartelized peacocking, and agreed to give up beautiful, richly adorned clothing forever This is now called the “Great Male Renunciation” 🤯

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

11 months

11/16: Sam Altman is corrupt, calling for regulation to secure his incumbent advantage permanently and crush innovation in AI 11/17: Sam Altman is a true hero of American innovation, one of the only real builders, how dare they destroy the entire field of AI by firing him

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

5 years

So many people unironically tell me they don’t read fiction, but go on about all the non-fiction books they read - as if non-fiction books were anything but one or two core ideas dressed up in thinly veiled storytelling via anecdotes and narratives for 300 pages.

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

2 years

If AOC thinks Thiel would take Musk out to dinner to make him feel special she must have literally no idea what went down at PayPal 😂

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

@AOC

2 years

Tired of having to collectively stress about what explosion of hate crimes is happening bc some billionaire with an ego problem unilaterally controls a massive communication platform and skews it because Tucker Carlson or Peter Thiel took him to dinner and made him feel special

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

3 years

At this point, COVID is over when we decide it’s over. And there’s no justification for continuing emergency measures and heavy handed policy when the risks have become manageable, and almost entirely individual, when it is literally tearing apart our society. /15

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

3 years

If I were named COVID czar tomorrow: -all pandemic restrictions and mandates ended immediately -an impassioned plea to consider vaccination -redirect resources to scaling therapeutics and developing better drugs and vaccines -take any measures you need to protect yourself 16/16

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

9 months

Narrator: he did not become a developer

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

3 years

If you get vaccinated, you are protecting *yourself* from the worst of COVID, but you aren’t protecting others for more than a few months. This makes it an *individual* decision, and NOT in the domain of public health policy. 9/

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

2 years

This lab from Boston University is taking the Omicron spike protein and adding it to wildtype COVID: “In K18-hACE2 mice, while Omicron causes mild, non-fatal infection, the Omicron S-carrying virus inflicts severe disease with a mortality rate of 80%.”

Role of spike in the pathogenic and antigenic behavior of SARS-CoV-2 BA.1 Omicron

The recently identified, globally predominant SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant (BA.1) is highly transmissible, even in fully vaccinated individuals, and causes attenuated disease compared with other major...

www.biorxiv.org

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

4 years

RETVRN

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

2 years

I recently rewatched Dune, and was struck by how excellent it was, from the source material, to the cinematography, to the acting. I’m genuinely worried I’m ruined on film and TV now. Can someone give me recommendations for something of similar quality?

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

3 years

Take vaccine mandates for example. They will likely succeed in pressuring people against their will to raise vaccination rates a few %. At the cost of **politicizing vaccines forever** and creating an unemployable undercaste of society. Surely they didn’t run the calculation. 12/

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

5 years

We are about to attempt an interesting experiment. What is the minimum viable economy? Not the one that maximizes GDP, just the one that keeps everyone alive and supplied with basic essentials. This can be used to estimate the proportion of bullshit jobs in the economy.

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

3 years

Apparently the powers that be have decided it’s morally acceptable to consider the lab leak hypothesis now. I am not even mad anymore, really I just want to know how that happened. Did someone just send out a memo one day? Was it a smoke filled room? Or some emergent phenomenon?

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

5 years

The CDC has created faulty test kits for COVID-19, and almost no tests have been run. There could be *thousands* of US cases spreading NOW. The FDA at any time could allow development and testing to be done in any lab with their own kits. This is why regulators are dangerous.

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

3 years

Unfortunately the biology of COVID is such that it’s like their distant cousins, the four endemic human coronaviruses that circulate and cause seasonal common colds. Immunity fades and you can catch each one annually. This is the future of COVID, forever. Face it. 6/

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

3 years

The current policy seems to recognize *only benefits and not costs* of public health interventions. But there’s both direct costs, and costs to the fabric of society. Everyone knows our civilization is in a fragile state. We must not tear ourselves apart. 11/

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

2 years

It’s time to establish the world’s first BSL-5 lab It will be located on a remote island, covered with a geodesic dome Mandatory 2 week quarantine to leave the lab The island is surrounded by armed ships with shoot to kill orders Then you can still do GoF research if you want

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

6 months

Okay but *why* is delve such a likely output given the training set? Is it unusually enriched in the training data for some reason? Or, like AlphaGo’s moves, is this a great word we’ve been sleeping on for generations?

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

2 years

Oh my god, the CFTC just killed PredictIt after 8 years of precedent. This is unbelievable.

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

3 years

The pandemic has now become endemic. The authorities seem to not have acknowledged this fact, despite it being blatantly evident. Doing so changes the optimal policy. This is where the lack of exit strategy is getting ugly… 4/

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

5 years

I am furious that the entire world went from denial about coronavirus being a serious threat, to complete resignation that we are facing a global pandemic, practically overnight. Why didn’t we fight? We didn’t we even try? (Reminds me of our attitude towards aging and death.)

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

4 years

This is COVID found in Boston sewage. This is a hard to fake measure that is immune to increased testing rates over time. Very bad news - this virus is starting to look awfully seasonal :-/

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

4 years

Imagine if polytheism had survived in the Western world, today we’d have all these mundane minor deities like the god of long haul trucking or the goddess of one hit wonders

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

3 years

The real Long COVID was the terrible epistemics and loss of institutional trust we made along the way

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

2 years

I just learned that JRR Tolkien read Dune, and intensely disliked it 🤯

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

6 months

Just like the AirBnB listing availability graphic. It’s so cool when big data reflect a phenomenon at massive scale like this!

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

9 months

Interesting graphic of how fun everything is: Homework is the *least fun thing ever* Most fun thing is going out to see a show, sports games, and playing with a child 😍 Computer games are a *top 10 most fun activity* - time to stop denigrating them as a leisure activity 🙃

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

5 months

My 8yo is playing a Minecraft mod, and has learned financial markets?? Instant buy/sell (market orders), offers (limit orders), various forms of bazaar flipping (market making, value add), competing away profits… His YouTube feed is all get rich quick schemes (in Minecraft)

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

4 years

What I find disturbing about Sanders’ “Make Billionaires Pay Act” is that it’s not about helping people, it’s not about how to spend money... it’s explicitly about tearing others down. :( No. I want to help people. I want to inspire people. I want to build a better future.

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

4 years

The exact search term “Kyle Rittenhouse” is censored on Facebook. And I do mean exact: two spaces works. Misspelling his name works. “Rittenhouse, Kyle” works. In fact, the FB algorithm even helpfully recommends a misspelling that routes around the censorship:

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

4 years

This tweet aged well.

Joe Rogan

@joerogan

15 years

Home from the @adamcarolla podcast. Whenever I do something like that it motivates me to start doing some sort of regular thing online

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

9 months

He's not just better than you at your own games, he's also smoking hot and an extremely successful actor, like can we catch a break here? Or maybe this means there is hope for the Warhammer fandom??

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

3 years

On the flip side: it sure looks like immunity (from vaccines or infections) confers a very significant protection against *very severe* COVID outcomes, long after it stops preventing infections and transmission. This is a great thing! And changes the risk calculus. 7/

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

9 months

Look at that photo. He is just some guy who genuinely likes tabletop wargaming. You can tell he’s living his best life. I’m glad he has that acting career to pay for his expensive hobby, why didn’t I think of that

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

3 years

The original justification for mass vaccination was that you could halt COVID spread, including to the people who couldn’t receive a vaccine. This makes some sense as a basis for policy! But it turned out to be false. 8/

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

3 years

At the end of the day, we can't let the perfect be the enemy of the good. We can't let counterfactual Zero COVID world get in the way of policy today. We can't let past policy failures dictate current ones. Each must be evaluated on their merits - and our ones are lacking. 29/29

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

2 years

Next we will ban anyone from the internet who has takes so bad they’re indistinguishable from ChatGPT

Reddit Lies

@reddit_lies

2 years

r/Art is banning artists who have styles "too similar to AI generated art."

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

4 years

You know, I still remember when there was “no evidence” that masks were effective. When did we make the flip to “overwhelming evidence”? Can someone point to the data that convinced them to do a complete 180 in a few months?

AP Politics

@AP_Politics

4 years

Official says masks will still not be mandatory at the White House, even after president tested positive for the virus. The official described facial coverings as “a personal choice,” despite overwhelming evidence that they help stop spread of virus.

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

10 months

Taylor Swift won TIME Person of the Year AI bros never before realized quite this hard that we live in a filter bubble

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

2 years

At the VERY LEAST we could put a stop to Daszak getting further funding for the exact thing we are rightly worried caused the pandemic. If there’s even *any shred of doubt* this caused millions of deaths worldwide, the work should be at least paused until further notice.

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

2 years

I must conclude that these organizations are both shameless, and completely irredeemable. There is a failure of leadership and common sense so profound we should shut down the NIH immediately and fire anyone involved, before starting with a clean slate. I see no other way.

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

2 years

I’m honestly just speechless. If there were any Justice in the world there would at least be an extremely thorough investigation, and an immediate ban on collecting samples, running infectivity assays in human cells, and storing or transporting live viruses.

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

2 years

Excuse me what?

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

3 years

Every winter, huge numbers of people fall ill, many hospitalized, and an estimated tens of thousands die from a contagious disease with a partially-effective vaccine. But we don't mandate those vaccines, or masks, or shutdown hard-hit areas. 18/

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

5 years

Okay so I admit that of all the consequences of COVID-19 I expected, a second Protestant Reformation was not one of them.

Optimistic Realist

@milesgrimes

5 years

WHAT IS HAPPENING?!

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

2 years

I can’t stop thinking about how Alito says a right to bodily autonomy can’t be a right because it allows drug use and sex work. Or you could, you know, bite the bullet that autonomy is one of our natural unenumerated rights and reconsider whether those should be illegal at all 🤔

Mark Joseph Stern

@mjs_DC

2 years

Alito's draft opinion explicitly criticizes Lawrence v. Texas (legalizing sodomy) and Obergefell v. Hodges (legalizing same-sex marriage). He says that, like abortion, these decisions protect phony rights that are not "deeply rooted in history."

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

9 months

The prior on lab leaks happening IS NOT LOW. It does NOT require extraordinary evidence for a lab leak being a source of an outbreak. This is always a reasonable hypothesis and *must be investigated*

Ian Birrell

@ianbirrell

9 months

New study reports 309 lab acquired infections and 16 pathogen lab escapes between 2000 and 2021

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

3 years

I was fully on board with early COVID Zero attempts. Containing and eliminating this virus, like we did with SARS1, would have been an enormous boon to the world. But the extremely anemic response in the entire world outside of Asia and Oceania guaranteed failure. 2/

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

3 years

I am just learning now that the FDA is banning the sale of NAC as a dietary supplement and I am NEWLY FURIOUS about literally everything it does. It is VERY SAFE. They’re literally banning it because it is ACTUALLY EFFECTIVE. The implication is that supplements must be useless

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

11 months

Everyone please welcome Violet Lillian Eden to the world :) She was born at 2:20 AM today right here at home after a fast labor. She is the fifth addition to our family, and also our last 🥲 She came out like the others, 8 lbs 6 oz 20” long and a full head of dark hair! 😍

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

1 year

There are an enormous number of bad takes out there, but this one is beyond the pale The commenters here are cheering a Pfizer facility being destroyed by a tornado… that made a huge fraction of *general anesthetics* globally I hope no one you know and love needs surgery :(

Wall Street Silver

@WallStreetSilv

1 year

Pfizer building destroyed by a tornado in North Carolina. 50,000 pallets of medicines destroyed.😳 🔊

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

2 years

I am witnessing a rush for everyone to quickly stake out positions on AI: accelerationists, technologists, “Yuddites” et al. Please, take a deep breath, and don’t rush to support one “team”. We all want humanity to succeed. Once you’ve loudly committed to a position it’ll stick!

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

5 years

Good news everyone! The FDA is saving us from themselves! Seriously though: I hope everyone remembers this as the time when we collectively realized that the regulations were actually making us unsafe and slower to respond, not the reverse.

FDA says it won't take action against manufacturers that start making hand sanitizer

The federal government will allow firms to begin manufacturing their own hand sanitizer with limited guidance as the spreading coronavirus dwindles supply across the country.

www.cnbc.com

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

4 years

If the Beirut explosion was in fact caused by 2750 tons of ammonium nitrate, if my calculations are correct, that explosion was over 1/10th the size of the nuclear bombing of Hiroshima.

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

3 years

Thanks everyone for your interest. The main pushback has been about hospital capacity creating a public interest, so let's talk about hospital capacity. It turns out we already have a good model for this, because we already have a deadly seasonal virus: influenza. 17/

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

3 years

There are conceivably situations where this is warranted - a disease which doesn’t mutate rapidly, has severe illness, and immunity is lifelong. And in some cases it could be worth non-pharmaceutical interventions to slow the spread while deploying a vaccine! /13

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

3 years

Similarly, masks do seem to offer some protection to both the wearer and others around them - but we can already individually choose to wear masks (including P100s or Versaflows or other measures) and get vaccinated. Anyone who wishes can protect themselves from COVID. 10/

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

2 years

We am play gods! :(

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

3 years

So what's my summary of hospital capacity? -We have enough right now -We absolutely should create more -This isn't a valid reason for current policy stances 27/

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

3 years

Furthermore, risk is reduced even more by the emergence of effective treatment options, from repurposed drugs easier on to Paxlovid today. With COVID becoming endemic and seasonal we need to deploy these - and continue working on even better options. /14

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

2 years

Alyssa points out that this specific breed of mouse model dies especially easily to COVID. I don’t expect 80% mortality in humans. BUT they created a chimera with the infectivity of Omicron with the virulence of wildtype COVID, which would be horrific

Alyssa Vance

@alyssamvance

2 years

This is very dumb, but K18-hACE2 mice were engineered to die from COVID very easily. In this earlier study, all the mice that got a significant viral dose died:

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

4 years

Apparently the State does in fact have some kind of self preservation instinct left. 🤔 Looks like we can’t go looking for any out of the box solutions folks, nothing to see here, move along, move along now...

Bret Weinstein

@BretWeinstein

4 years

Twitter suspended #Unity2020 's account for amplifying #JustSayNoToDonaldAndJoe as President Trump was accepting the Republican Party's nomination. Pull back the curtain and see how we got here: vague rules and selective enforcement are the duopoly's best defense. Heads up, @jack

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

4 years

PSA: if you caught a mild cold, there is something wrong with your quarantine/safety protocols around respiratory infections.

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

9 months

To the commenters saying that Cavill is the type of hot that’s attractive to men, not women, remember that his first breakout role was *The Tudors* for crying out loud

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

1 year

I just finished rereading Dune for the third time in my life. I’ve gotten more out of it every time I did. I have a few Thoughts, so buckle up for a thread 🧵

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

2 years

And yet, nothing will be done. No one will stop these people. There should be only one platform for anyone running for office today: never let this happen again! But no. There is no sanity left in the system. I simply don’t know what to say anymore.

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

3 years

Hospital capacity seems to be treated as some fixed number that was created long ago by a mysterious process, but it is a variable that we can and should choose to deliberately increase. Policy efforts need to be aimed at supply, not just demand, for hospital beds. 23/

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

3 years

In some ways, the COVID response has actually been *bad* for hospital capacity. The lack of revenue from non-COVID patients caused some hospitals to scale back due to budget. And mandatory vaccine requirements have closed entire wards of hospitals recently! 22/

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

10 months

Not even joking, here’s the (short) Wiki article on it:

Great Male Renunciation - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

3 years

This sounds like hyperbole, but it’s absolutely not. In what world is a drug so effective it is *unethical to continue the trial* and yet it *is ethical* to take several weeks or more for the regulators to sit down and tell us we can use it? Hint: there is no such world.

Eliezer Yudkowsky ⏹️

@ESYudkowsky

3 years

FDA plans to kill 50,000 Americans over the next month - over 16X the direct casualties from 2001/9/11 - by keeping it illegal for doctors to prescribe Paxlovid. Can no one stop these homicidal supervillains?

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

1 year

I just rewatched the Matrix with my kids 1) Hard to overstate how groundbreaking it was at the time (1999!) 2) The kids know the references and concepts, it’s in the water supply now 3) They loved it, the movie holds up well 24 years later!

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

3 years

Austin has all the makings of a new tech hub, from skyrocketing housing costs to everyone who used to live there saying how uncool it is now.

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

3 years

I still can’t wrap my head around the idea that a several hundred dollar phone is considered a disposable object, to be replaced every two years.

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

2 years

I’m watching this monkeypox thing unfold and we are making the EXACT SAME mistakes as we did with COVID. LET EVERYONE RUN TESTS AND TEST EVERYONE Why is this so hard? I’m somehow even more pessimistic about society if we cannot correct the *most recent* catastrophic error

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

2 years

So the question is, which areas of the economy can deal with 99% correct solutions? My answer is: ones that don't create/capture most of the value. You can use an LLM to translate with a friend across the world, but you need a professional to write an airtight legal contract 20/n

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

2 years

I’m starting to think that Microsoft saw how much everyone hated the restrained, careful, bland ChatGPT and explicitly decided it would be a massive PR coup for the company to just release the truly unhinged Sydney on the world

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

3 years

Much more could be said about optimal policy responses, btw. We have overall done a HORRIBLE job. Rapid tests are cheap and abundant in Europe, they should be here too. It should be encouraged to stay home when you're sick with *anything* not just COVID. And so much more. 28/

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

3 years

COVID is of course far more serious than the flu, but with previous infections and vaccinations greatly reducing the risk of hospitalization and death, it will more and more come to resemble the current state of affairs we already are used to. 19/

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

11 months

If “not consistently candid” is HR-speak for “pathological liar”, that’s a completely fair reason not to have someone be CEO And if you caught them in 10 different little lies, you can have a threshold model where it’s collectively enough, and odds of a big unknown lie are high

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

3 years

One potential exit path was vaccines. The initial efficacy was way better than I hoped! It seemed like maybe there was a promise (implicit or explicit) that getting mass adoption would stop the pandemic and/or return things to normal 5/

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

10 months

It’s interesting seeing some newfound neo-trads on the timeline who lived incredibly debauched (and very fun!) lives in their 20s suddenly profess extreme temperance and restraint in their 30s for everyone younger than them without their life experiences 👀

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

9 months

NASDAQ gained an eye-watering 54% this year, the highest annual gain since 1999. Let that sink in.

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

3 years

Early in the pandemic I vocally supported lockdowns. I believed we would use that time to set up robust testing and contact tracing, and we could get cases down to zero like multiple other countries did! We didn’t do that. I was wrong. Lockdowns have failed. Stop using them.

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

2 years

“full genome sequencing and cell entry assays to assess ability to infect human cells” HUMAN CELL LINE INFECTIONS AAAAHHHHH

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

2 years

Quick primer time! Silvergate Bank, and now Silicon Valley Bank, are currently undergoing a good old fashioned bank run! So what is a bank run and why is this happening? 🧵

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

3 years

Influenza pandemic surge capacity is a very well studied field. Most of the papers will tell you we aren't sufficiently prepared, as all such studies tend to find. And they're probably right - we should be investing in more surge capacity! For this pandemic and the next one. 20/

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

5 years

Spare capacity, inventories, and robustness have been replaced by efficiency, JIT manufacturing, and fragility. And it will cost us so dearly. All because, as @EricRWeinstein pointed out, our institutions are predicated on an assumption of growth. Leverage cannot substitute.

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

11 months

There is a being inside my house right now that has existed for less than 24 hours 😳

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2

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William Eden

@WilliamAEden

3 months

The main pro-Chevron point seems to be “subject matter experts used to decide things, now judges will” True. Judges don’t have subject matter expertise - that’s what expert witnesses are for! What judges do have is skill in *mediating disputes under competing considerations*

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