Mark Gutman @MarkGutman9 Twitter profile | Pikagi

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Mark Gutman

@MarkGutman9

19,890

Followers

847

Following

2,806

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25,488

Statuses

Alter-ego of Marcos Bueno, CIO of @AscentAdvisors . Ex GS, JPM Prop and HF. This is not advice nor recommendations, it's Educational Content and Market Updates

NYC & London

https://t.co/Qp1LA2bdLi

Joined March 2019

Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.

Pinned Tweet

@MarkGutman9

Mark Gutman

5 months

Lots of new followers this week, so here is what I do: My main focus is running a systematic strategy that is always looking for great stocks. For example, it was on the moves in $SMCI and $VKTX before they exploded upwards (which btw made February a great month). I send

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@MarkGutman9

Mark Gutman

3 years

If I understood the FIRE movement correctly, its about living miserably for the first half of your life, and then also living miserably during the second half.

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@MarkGutman9

Mark Gutman

1 month

Learn to code, they said

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Mark Gutman

3 years

Congrats to my former doorman, who was working every day to put himself through college with a dream to go into finance. He started at Guggenheim Partners last week.

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@MarkGutman9

Mark Gutman

3 years

You paid 80x revenues for that stock but sure, it’s the bond market’s fault

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@MarkGutman9

Mark Gutman

2 years

$SHOP is down 80% and its market cap is …. $50bn What a time to be alive

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@MarkGutman9

Mark Gutman

2 years

If you’re starting to get involved in commodities now, you are going to get wrecked. So don’t. This is financial advice.

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@MarkGutman9

Mark Gutman

3 years

Just like a whole generation of investors wanted to short the market all the way up because they saw 2008, there is another generation that will long the market all the way down because they saw 2020.

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@MarkGutman9

Mark Gutman

3 years

Looks like a a lot of carbon for what amounts to a joyride. "BuT i Am An EnViRoNmEnTaLiSt"

@NBCNews

NBC News

3 years

BREAKING: Billionaire entrepreneur Richard Branson reaches the edge of space.

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@MarkGutman9

Mark Gutman

4 years

Cancel rent bro today: "Hahaha you landlord loser!" Cancel rent bro 2yrs from now: "Can you believe I can't find a decent place to live? Everything is shitty AND expensive. Or they want 12m deposit"

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Mark Gutman

2 years

Madoff investors never felt any stress. The numbers were always good, no matter what the market conditions were. And that should have been the first red flag.

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Mark Gutman

4 years

I’m honestly surprised at how many people claim to have 30% / yr compounded for considerable periods of time and they still want to sell you some monthly stuff. My former boss delivers 15% consistently and he flies around in a $65mil jet. And he has no subs.

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Mark Gutman

2 years

Small money: “No idea what’s going on. Must be big money flows” Big money: “No idea what’s going on”

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@MarkGutman9

Mark Gutman

3 years

If you’re wondering where he went, @chamath is living life and enjoying your money

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@MarkGutman9

Mark Gutman

4 years

SV Math: I gave my kid $10 for his lemonade stand at $100 valuation. The next day I gave him $1 at $10mm valuation. I am now a millionaire.

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@MarkGutman9

Mark Gutman

2 years

“I don’t alway bid $44bn for a business, but when I do I don’t do any due diligence” - A genius, allegedly

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@MarkGutman9

Mark Gutman

2 years

Serious question: Why are the commodity stocks getting smoked today? What did investors learn today that they didn't know yesterday?

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@MarkGutman9

Mark Gutman

2 years

Crypto bros reaction to the selloff confirms what we all already know. What they really wanted was fiat, not crypto.

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Mark Gutman

2 years

If I were Tether, I would simply show proof that $USDT is fully backed to bring it back to par.

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Mark Gutman

2 years

Thank you for making stealing legal

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@MarkGutman9

Mark Gutman

2 years

“And once the stocks were down 90%, the VCs came out saying that the market was overvalued like it is some sort of insight”

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@MarkGutman9

Mark Gutman

1 month

Spoiler alert: You will not be able to withdraw $200k/yr for 50yrs on $5mm of savings And if you want $200k real (ie inflation linked) it is pretty much impossible

@mikekarnj

Michael Karnjanaprakorn

1 month

What's the amount to retire early, live comfortably, and never have to "work" again? $5M. You can withdraw $200K a year for 50 years. Number is higher if material status things are important to you. But if you have value freedom then you'll be fine with $5M.

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Mark Gutman

4 years

Let’s be honest, what all those #Bitcoin bros really want is dollars.

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Mark Gutman

2 years

Hear me out: What if higher interest rates reduce mal-investment and thus free up resources that can be used more productively, in turn creating a more prosperous future?

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@MarkGutman9

Mark Gutman

1 month

Many people are saying

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Mark Gutman

2 years

Looks like we are in the middle of the biggest pump and dump ever $TWTR

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Mark Gutman

3 years

Financial Advisors: "Past performance is not indicative of future performance" Also Financial Advisors: "You should invest in stocks because historically they have done well"

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@MarkGutman9

Mark Gutman

3 years

I can’t believe my luck. This twitter guy that never gets a trade wrong is writing a newsletter for $100 a month instead of enjoying his (I guess) super yachts and mansions. No better sign of a good, generous person.

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@MarkGutman9

Mark Gutman

3 years

/rant It is now fashionable to hail Cathie Wood now that her fund is huge. IMO she’s a great marketer and fund raiser but I get why she gets little respect as an investor. Let’s see. If a million ppl flip a coin a 100 times, someone will get Heads 100 times, and be invited to

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@MarkGutman9

Mark Gutman

4 years

I don’t alway pay my friends for financial advice, but when I do I pay them $158 million

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@MarkGutman9

Mark Gutman

2 years

No lie is too small for @elonmusk

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@MarkGutman9

Mark Gutman

3 years

It's hard for me to believe that $AAPL the largest most covered most followed stock is +20% in the last month to $3T in market cap. But it happened. It's truly staggering. I really have no words.

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Mark Gutman

2 years

I don’t recommend buying a Veyron if you make less than $300k/yr

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Mark Gutman

2 years

That the $SPX was able to finish unchanged on the day with the Powell news, the oil move, and the Fixed Income move is nothing short of remarkable.

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Mark Gutman

2 years

Hundreds of millions of dollars spent on “research” by the sellside and buyside, and still the market can’t figure out subscriber growth (or lack thereof) for a company like $NFLX. A clown show

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Mark Gutman

3 years

I saw a fintwit guy enjoying a good bottle of wine. He just enjoyed it. Without posting a picture. Like a psychopath.

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Mark Gutman

3 years

I don’t know who needs to hear this but the wealthiest options and rates traders I know are very, extremely, scarily, good at math

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Mark Gutman

2 years

Ackman selling $NFLX at 230 was a better trade than buying it at 400, even though his Sell was at a lower price than his Buy

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Mark Gutman

2 years

Story as old as time. The worst risk managers will populate the top of the return tables [and the bottom] - they’ll be hailed as super stars. Allocators get sucked in, then the market regime changes. The losses become staggering and the manager retires to an oceanfront property.

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@MarkGutman9

Mark Gutman

4 years

Winner

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Mark Gutman

1 year

Should the gvt protect the little people? Definitely. That’s the $250k guarantee (it can be argued that it could be higher, yes). But should it protect sophisticated business people whose goal is multi-million or multi-billion exits? Absolutely not. Those are grown ups

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Mark Gutman

2 years

Hypothesis: Recession in tech-land as past excesses take their toll. The rest of the economy keeps going or even improves as capital and labor get redirected. Investors and the pundit class miss it and become overly negative because of their overweight focus on tech.

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Mark Gutman

2 years

The grain markets are sending a signal to all world farmers to plant as much as they can, even on marginal land that they wouldn't have considered in years past.

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@MarkGutman9

Mark Gutman

2 months

gm

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Mark Gutman

5 months

Idk if it means anything, but this is what my 9yo left on the kitchen counter this morning.

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Mark Gutman

3 years

Starting to think that ESG is just about virtue signaling

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Mark Gutman

3 years

A fintwit classic: "Look at this, if you had bought the bottom and sold the top, you would have made tons"

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Mark Gutman

3 years

The memes write themselves

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Mark Gutman

2 years

It hurts to see so many people on here that genuinely want to do the right thing being taken advantage of by a bunch of grifting failed traders posing as macro and investment savants

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Mark Gutman

2 years

Fintwit before: “I’m 5% cash” Fintwit now: “I’m 80% cash” What they won’t tell us is that they probably didn’t sell a share.

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Mark Gutman

4 years

$TSLA is a great real time experiment in anchoring. Watch now how most longs will not sell at huge profit because they’re now anchored at $950. Selling below will feel to them like a loss - so they won’t. #trading

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Mark Gutman

2 years

Inflation is 6-8%. Softbank got a $5bn loan at 5% and collateralized it with overvalued non-listed equity holdings. That gives us an idea of where we are in the cycle.

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Mark Gutman

3 years

Did you know that honest, competent managers with integrity do not care about short sellers? They even welcome them because they will buy higher. Only scammers don’t like short sellers.

@DeliveringAlpha

Delivering Alpha

@DeliveringAlpha

3 years

"Here's the thing about short-selling: I find it curious that we don't look at that more," says @Chamath . "It's about creating sentiment shift and volatility, then profiting from that. I would love for folks to figure out whether that should be allowed or not." #DeliveringAlpha

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Mark Gutman

3 years

This week I made number of very large transfers of money. They had multiple fail-safe and anti-fraud mechanisms. They were also immediate, free, and reversible had an error been committed. This tech is going to disrupt the clumsy crypto ecosystem fast

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Mark Gutman

3 years

Yes, a lot of smart people believe and are involved in crypto. Reminds me of the smartest people I’ve ever met dedicating their lives to String Theory.

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Mark Gutman

1 month

Run a hedge fund with $20bn from his $65mm Gulfstream. And the wildest thing is that few outside his niche would recognize his name, amd even fewer would notice him if they crossed him on a sidewalk.

@roblabonne

Rob LaBonne

2 months

What does the wealthiest person you know do for work?

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Mark Gutman

3 years

You have no kids and look forward to Friday evening. I have three and look forward to Monday morning. We are not the same.

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Mark Gutman

3 years

Investors decided that $MSFT is now worth $100bn less than yesterday. Microcap behavior

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Mark Gutman

2 years

For $TSLA to be worth $50bn (which would be a lot given that $F is worth $57bn), it will have to drop more than 95% from latest ATH Oh boy.

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Mark Gutman

2 years

Journalists be like

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Mark Gutman

3 years

Fintwit classic: “I didn’t make any money on it, but I knew it was going to happen”

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Mark Gutman

2 years

Unpopular opinion: Bond yields normalizing after the aberration of the last decade is ultimately healthy. Yes, it hurts now - like when you get back to working out - but the weed of malinvestment is going to have a harder time going forward.

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Mark Gutman

4 years

What they don't tell you in your 20's is that the best moment of the week in your 40's is going to Costco by yourself.

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Mark Gutman

2 years

I don’t understand China’s covid policies. It really doesn’t makes sense at this point. Especially for a government that has been ‘brutally pragmatic’ in the past. I’m pretty sure that there is some other goal that we don’t know and things would make more sense if we knew.

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Mark Gutman

5 months

Rule of thumb: Smart, trustworthy people speak succinctly and in a way the is easy to understand. They can take something complex and distill its core into a few words. There is nothing to hide Less smart people and grifters use big words, make things sound complicated and try

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Mark Gutman

2 years

If you are struggling in the market you can always rebrand yourself as a tail risk hedge fund manager. "We are supposed to be losing money, bro"

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Mark Gutman

2 years

“Raising $750 million at $137 billion valuation” A business may need $750mm of equity, or it may have a $137bn valuation. But not both. Always the same - to avoid taking a small loss, people will end up taking a big loss.

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Mark Gutman

2 years

So yeah, retail is still all in. The mood is still 'how much am I going to make', not 'how much can I lose' $AMZN

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Mark Gutman

1 year

Every blow up I have seen was the result of extreme confidence. Be humble.

@Jimmyjude13

James Jude

1 year

Every successful trader I have ever met have shared one trait, confidence in themselves. Fuck everyone else

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Mark Gutman

3 years

If you're under 25 you should 𝗉̶𝗋̶𝗈̶𝖻̶𝖺̶𝖻̶𝗅̶𝗒̶ definitely ignore this advice. Same if you are above 25. Or exactly 25. And you should probably ignore everything else this person says since he obviously does not care one bit about what is best for you.

@mikealfred

Mike Alfred

3 years

If you’re under 25 you should probably have 75% of your net worth in #Bitcoin

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Mark Gutman

8 months

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Mark Gutman

2 years

$BTC and $ARKK unchanged from 4.5yrs ago. So much money made at the expense of the believers. They bought the story wholesale from the promoters. And incredibly, they are still believing.

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Mark Gutman

2 years

This video is incredible. We already knew that His Royal Snakeoilness Raoul was ‘slippery’ but this is a whole new level of dangerous. Had never seen it until now.

@80IQmindset

Bitcoin Mindset (Flip Gold Gang)

2 years

Never forget the ruggers

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Mark Gutman

1 year

HF managers: “We generate alpha exploiting market inefficiencies” Also HF Managers [in tears]: “This market makes no sense”

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Mark Gutman

3 years

Kind of bizarre to think Elon Musk is not a fraud, tbh. It's not like there isn't a paper trail that shows it or anything.

@Noahpinion

Noah Smith 🐇🇺🇸🇺🇦

3 years

Kind of bizarre to think Elon Musk is a "fraud" at this point. An increasing number of Musk projects are proving themselves to be very real and very transformative.

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@MarkGutman9

Mark Gutman

2 years

$TWTR has a signed merger agreement for cash and it still falls more than $SPY It's incredible

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Mark Gutman

2 years

Some people bought $BBBY hoping to sell higher to some greater fool. Alas, they were the fool. From what I can see, it’s just people being victims of their own greed and being angry that someone did to them what they hoped to do to someone else.

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Mark Gutman

1 year

“Bwahh, if startups blow up and VCs lose money nobody will take venture risk” Dude, that’s the risk. Literally. And, btw, good risk managers don’t hold millions of cash in an uninsured checking account.

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Mark Gutman

2 years

If I’m an oil producer, I want the price of Oil lower asap. I don’t want LT demand destruction

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Mark Gutman

2 months

Apparently there is a large-ish HF (above $30bn aum) doing Rates RV trades with 30x leverage and (basically) not a losing month in the last 5yrs or so.

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@MarkGutman9

Mark Gutman

1 year

I never speak to any of my 19 CEOs. One of the reasons I'm invested in their stocks is because they are better at their jobs than I could ever be. And they don't need the distraction.

@NWischoff

Nichole Wischoff

1 year

Have 30 portfolio companies. Speak to at least 6 of my founders every day. Text, emails, calls. If you don’t love people, you will hate being a VC.

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@MarkGutman9

Mark Gutman

3 years

The Alps. Last night. From a friend. Can't wait

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Mark Gutman

2 years

At the end of 2020, many (tons of) fintwitters posted their returns for the year. In 2021, only a few did. In 2022, almost no one did.

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@MarkGutman9

Mark Gutman

23 days

I say "be careful with the RE promoters on Twitter"

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@MarkGutman9

Mark Gutman

3 years

I haven’t had a coffee is 10yrs, and I’m still not a hundo millionaire. How can this be possible?

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@MarkGutman9

Mark Gutman

2 years

Men will literally try to trigger nuclear war to avoid paying $44bn for $TWTR instead of going to rehab

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Mark Gutman

2 years

95% of real estate agents give the other 5% a bad name

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Mark Gutman

2 years

If I had made $1bn+ for myself raising to the top at Goldman, I would simply not be posting on Twitter under my real name.

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@MarkGutman9

Mark Gutman

5 months

It's good to have plans and goals for the future. It keeps you motivated and gives you meaning. But don't forget about the present. Why am I saying that? Because my mother would have turned 75 today. But an illness took her aged 46. I think about that every single day.

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Mark Gutman

3 years

So many people don’t know what a bear market is that when it comes it’s going to be a real carnage. No, Q4’18 and Mar’20 were not bear markets. Ppl still got rewarded for buying the dip.

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Mark Gutman

3 years

Why are crypto bros worried about prices? They still own the same amount of coins, don’t they?

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Mark Gutman

3 years

Most people have seen this chart. A good rule of thumb is the following: Whenever someone points to an area of the chart and says “we are here”, then we are anywhere but “here”

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Mark Gutman

3 years

$MSFT low print to high print 14% in 24 hours. It could benefit from a little more coverage, so the market understands the company and the business better

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Mark Gutman

3 years

We are in some of the stupidest markets ever. A lot to make and also a lot to lose. But most will lose a lot - the greedy in particular. That’s how it’s always been and that’s not changing.

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@MarkGutman9

Mark Gutman

4 years

"You take a chart and draw some lines. If it looks like a resistance, you say that it's time to get short. If it's support, you say it's going to break down and that it's time to get short. And just like that, you're a Macro Insider"

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Mark Gutman

4 years

Billion $ allocator writes something on Linkedin. Hedge fund community:

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Mark Gutman

2 years

2008 bears when their counterparties defaulted

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Mark Gutman

3 years

Sounding intellectual on the twitter 101: Write threads with pompous buzzwords and strings of ideas that sound profound [but aren’t]. Do not worry if they’re disconnected, banal, or even wrong - barely anyone will notice.

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Mark Gutman

3 years

Account locked. Tired of rude people. I will kick out anyone that is rude - to me or to others

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Mark Gutman

3 years

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