I see that people are telling me there is a Starbucks in Paris as evidence of American cultural power. My friends, that’s nonsense. First, Starbucks is if anything evocative of European coffeehouse culture. Second…
Medieval Peasants:
1. Worked less hours than you.
2. Had longer vacations than you
3. Likely had a bigger house than you.
4. Definitely had higher T.
5. Ate better food than you.
6. Paid way less taxes.
7. Rarely saw their "boss"
Who's really living in the dark ages?
Here's a pre-buttal on some takes we're sure to see on this new stimulus package:
1. Stimulus checks are only around 1/5 of the total bill.
2. UI in America typically pays around 50% of pre-layoff wages, though it varies. With this extra $300/week, that will be ~85%.
1/X
Not having 20 million illegal aliens who need to be housed (often at public expense) will absolutely make housing more affordable for American citizens.
But I see the left’s strategy of making fun of people for suffering under Biden policies continues apace.
Fun little trick in the Sunday New York Times crossword yesterday: the central theme clue was "The better of two sci-fi franchises", and regardless of whether you put Star Wars or Star Trek, the crossing clues worked
I was helping my son do research for a report on the discovery of the Titanic in September 1985, and ran across this fascinating article about that month's employment release. For reference, the unemployment rate today is 3.9%.
A small American town of around 50,000 was able to build a high-speed monorail for $3 million and in a matter of mere weeks.
This was considered normal in the 90s when the show began.
Today is my last day as Chief Economist at
@WhiteHouseCEA
. I will miss this beautiful view from my office. But more so, I will miss working with so many dedicated and brilliant people. Serving in this Administration with them has been the privilege of a lifetime. /1
I see that people are telling me there is a Starbucks in Paris as evidence of American cultural power. My friends, that’s nonsense. First, Starbucks is if anything evocative of European coffeehouse culture. Second…
6. The problem instead was that the US leaned heavily on its UI system to deliver aid, which was inconsistent across states and often creaky & overloaded. We also lost the political will to extend expiring aid earlier in 2020; that extra aid would have helped us in Nov & Dec.
5. The problem with the US response was not its initial generosity -- we did a hell of a lot more than "just $1,200 checks" back in March, more so than probably any other advanced economy besides Canada, even adjusting for the pre-existing safety net.
Look I'm just begging this younger generation to get some basic rock 'n roll literacy before they go and do something silly like assume "Born in the USA" is a patriotic song.
NEW: Counter protesters are blasting 'Born in the USA' while waving their USA flags at the University of Chicago.
The Chads are taking over the country 🇺🇸
Tensions grew on Friday as a group of frat bros marched on the university with USA flags, chanting "USA, USA, USA" at
Adjusted for aging, employment and labor force participation rates are extraordinary, around 1999-2000 levels, likely ranking among the highest in US history. This is truly about as close to full employment as the US has managed to get outside of wartime mobilization.
Trump's stunt cost America $9-10 billion in relief that it sorely needs and that both parties in Congress had negotiated.
A loss of 1 week of $300 top-up for all 20 mil UI recipients, & a loss of ~$200-300 for 14 million PEUC and PUA recipients.
Congress should pass a backfill
7. That's not a minor problem either, it's a major one, and it may come back to haunt us again--this new bill for example reportedly only extends pandemic UI programs for another 11 weeks, through mid-March. That's not enough to bridge us to when a vaccine is widely distributed.
"Tell these Americans that the economy is humming, that median wage growth has nudged ahead of the core inflation rate, and that everything’s grand, and you’re likely to see a roll of the eyes,"
@powellAtlantic
writes.
Sanders' type of single-payer system is only a reality in Canada (and Taiwan, which he didn't list). The UK goes further and directly employs providers too.
Everywhere else has some mix of public and private/supplemental insurance. We should consider those alternative models too
Remember: our "crazy idea" of universal health care is a reality in:
Australia
Austria
Belgium
Canada
Chile
Czech Rep.
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Iceland
Israel
Italy
Japan
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Poland
Portugal
S. Korea
Spain
Sweden
Switz.
Turkey
U.K.
The fact that the United States is a fiscal union is one of our biggest institutional advantages in dealing with economic crises. Arguments about states "subsidizing" others are destructive to that.
The outrage shouldn't be directed at the companies -- Congress was very clear the PPP *was* meant for larger restaurant and hotel chains too. It should be directed at Congress for making the program too small given this policy choice.
"If Chinese students want to come here and study Shakespeare & the Federalist Papers, that's what they need to learn from America. They don't need to learn quantum computing" -- Sen. Tom Cotton proposes restricting Chinese students from studying science & tech at US universities
If Joe Biden picks Janet Yellen as his Treasury Secretary, she will be the only person to have ever held all three of the most important economic policymaking positions in government: Fed Chair, CEA Chair, and Treasury Secretary.
NEWS: Senior Dems drafting plan to directly send $3K per kid (& $3,600/young kid) to millions
Aides say effort to look more like direct checks -- aiming for direct monthly deposit of $300 -- than traditional tax credit offsetting liability
Details -->
I worked w/
@econjared46
closely for 3 years at CEA. We discussed fiscal policy & financing often. His views are well-known, well-articulated, & public. This gotcha clip circulating is deceptively framed: the interview was done back in Feb 2020: pre-CEA, pre-Biden, & pre-pandemic
This is a much, much bigger worry about the jobs numbers than absentee misclassification.
Response rates for the household survey are plunging, thanks in large part to the fact that BLS can't conduct as many in-person interviews.
Lower response rates mean more uncertainty.
3. If you're unemployed, you get an extra $1,300 per month through mid-March. If you're a gig worker or been out of work since early 2020, that's on top of having your UI benefits extended.
2/X
4. The bill includes another ~$300 billion in PPP loans, which are essentially payroll support for small businesses. If a business wants them *fully* forgiven, they essentially have to maintain their employment and wages -- effectively the equivalent 100% payroll support.
3/X
And while we're on the topic, "living paycheck-to-paycheck" is a poorly-defined concept reported by a private survey of unclear quality.
Using the Fed's Survey of Consumer Finances, I calculate that the typical US hhld has cash equal to 5 weeks of income, the highest on record.
Movie ticket prices have grown 4% more slowly than average wages for production & nonsupervisory workers since 2019. The level of movie ticket prices *relative to wages* is below its 60 year average.
Prime-age (25-54-year-old) employment is growing at a pace of around +750,000 a year. Almost a third of these job finders are coming from the ranks of the disabled -- the single biggest source of new worker hires.
The unemployed are two months away from losing emergency payments.
Small businesses are one month away from losing PPP coverage.
State & local governments are already beginning to plan for significant cuts.
Policymakers should be laser-focused on *those* problems right now.
Good reminder that it's good to be humble and learn good things from other countries. But we should also reject things that run counter to our strengths. One of those big strengths is that America is fairly good at integrating immigrants.
Real GDP growth came in at 1.6% in Q1, softer than expected. But that appears to be driven by weakness in volatile components, especially net exports. Private domestic final purchases--"core GDP" made up of consumption & fixed investment--grew 3.1%, a very strong print.
*If* he actually goes through with this, it will have cost unemployed workers a week of extended benefits and emergency top-up payments.
For the typical unemployed worker, that's $600 lost, exactly the size of the stimulus checks Trump was ostensibly trying to boost.
K-shaped recovery update:
Employment for the top 2/3 of wage earners is about -2 percentage points below February.
For the bottom 1/3, it's -7.3pp lower, more than 3x worse. And their employment fell by around -1pp in November alone.
A dangerous situation. Effective sample sizes are already under strain because of rising nonresponse. Reliable economic data is something we should prioritize investing more in, not cutting.
GOP Sen.
@HawleyMO
on Yellen: "My concerns as I've said before about what I'm seeing from Vice President Biden is the people who he wants to be in his cabinet are all a bunch of corporate liberals and warmongers. So I'd like to see him break the mold. “
@elwasson
Gen Z is still young, but they typically have higher inflation-adjusted net wealth (assets minus debt, including student debt) than prior generations did at their age.
Millennials, who were behind for a time due to the timing of the Great Recession, are now ahead of Boomers. /1
The "excess" core CPI inflation right now is much less broad than what we saw in 2022.
In 2022, inflationary pressures hit many categories.
In contrast, right now, only two are stronger than we'd expect under 2% PCE pre-pandemic: housing--the lion's share--and auto insurance.
Something that came up repeatedly in interviews for this story: The extra $600 in UI benefits is REALLY helping workers. There's been (appropriately) lots of attention on the system's failures. But for ppl able to get the help, it's made a huge difference.
About 0.4pp of Q2’s 2.4% real GDP growth came from construction of manufacturing structures such as factories. The last time factory construction contributed so much to quarterly growth was 1981 Q1.
Nonresidential private fixed investment accelerated, contributing 1 percentage point to Q2 growth. Private construction of manufacturing facilities alone, such as factories, contributed about 0.4 percentage point, this category’s largest growth contribution since 1981. 5/
This is wrong on several counts. 1) Payroll employment is up across citizenship categories since 2019; 2) since Biden took office, ~2/3 of payroll gains have gone to native-born workers; 3) the *entire* fall in native-born LFPR since 2019 is simply due to aging.
Europe is generally speaking a nice place & America can learn a lot from them. And it is true that inequality is higher in the US. But Europeans consistently overweight how much inequality drives US-EU average growth & income differences. *Median* US incomes are much higher too.
In today’s Sunday Wrap:
The difference in growth during the past 10-20 years in the US vs Europe, and how economics explain part of Trump’s appeal.
The US should be a bit more European in politics - and Europe a bit more American in economics
@MarcGoldwein
My problem is I prefer cities to the country so I am loathe to go much further back than 1900, even with unlimited wealth. And 1900-1950 is made even harder by broader world events.
Any definition of a "recession" where real wages are growing, the economy is expanding at a 3% clip, and we're adding ~250K jobs a month is a useless one.
"Nearly three in five Americans wrongly believe the US is in an economic recession, and the majority blame the Biden administration, according to a Harris poll conducted exclusively for the Guardian"
The lockdowns are just the first wave of economic shocks. The second wave will be state & local budget cuts, unless we keep them whole the same way we’re trying to keep workers and businesses whole.
I spent a lot of time in each of the last two recessions tallying up the state budget shortfalls. Those shortfalls were bad and caused a lot of hardship. I never, never, ever imagined that it could be way worse
#StateCOVIDRelief
The US is not the worst rich country in terms of overall homelessness, but it is the worst in terms of unsheltered homelessness.
We should 1) build more shelters, 2) build more housing in general.
The official unemployment rate was 6.7% in November.
Adjusted for potential misclassification of workers, it was 7.1%.
And adjusted further for the fall in labor force participation since February, it was 9.9%, slightly *increasing* over the month.
There are bonafide, serious issues facing some men that deserve our attention, but there’s also a whole cottage industry that tries to make it a zero sum game with women.
Auto insurance in PPI, which is what goes into PCE, came in much cooler than CPI in March month-to-month: 0.1%, versus CPI's 2.6%.
That difference alone will shave ~10bps off of monthly core PCE in March relative to core CPI.
A story I think a lot about:
In college our student council elections has tons of candidates. It was hard to stand out.
If you committed a campaign violation you got a * next to your name on the ballot. Some had 1 or 2.
One guy committed 25. He had 25 *s. He stuck out. And won