Enjoyed talking about the power of the dollar w/
@FareedZakaria
He calls my book on the topic, PAPER SOLDIERS, a "wonderful read"
We unpacked how the US has weaponized the buck and what it'll take to preserve its superpower status
Book is out now--->
Sanctions have become one of Washington’s favorite geopolitical weapons. Will their overuse threaten the US dollar’s global reign?
My conversation with
@SalehaMohsin
, author of “Paper Soldiers: How the Weaponization of the Dollar Changed the World Order”
Wisconsin says there's no way they are announcing a winner tonight
Michigan needs until Friday
Pennsylvania isn't coming out anytime soon, either
Per officials in those states
NEWS: US is eyeing sanctions on Russia’s central bank, I'm told, a move that would target much of the $643b reserves Putin has amassed
A final decision hasn’t been made but admin aims to make each move in conjunction with allies across Europe for maximum impact
NEW: Some Biden officials privately express concern that rather than dissuade the Kremlin as intended, US sanctions have instead exacerbated inflation, worsened food insecurity and punished ordinary Russians more than Putin or his allies
w/
@DanielPFlatley
+
@nwadhams
Scoop w/
@nwadhams
@SalehaMohsin
: US officials surprised by companies pulling out of Russia are worried the move could worsen other problems, like inflation
Blacklisting Russia's central bank would be without precedent for an economy this size
The move would be “devastating” for Russia, per
@tashecon
“We would see the ruble crash.”
NEW: Mnuchin will place the $455b in unspent Cares Act money he is taking back from the Fed into Treasury's General Fund, where his successor (Yellen) essentially cannot reach it w/o Congressional approval
Trump banned Pence chief of staff Marc Short from the WH today, sources tell
@JenniferJJacobs
, me and
@josh_wingrove
Top WH advisers including O'Brien, Liddell and Pottinger are thinking about resigning after today's events, we are told
On
@TheTerminal
National security adviser Robert O'Brien, deputy national security adviser Matt Pottinger and deputy chief of staff Chris Liddell are all considering resigning, sources tell me,
@jaketapper
and
@vmsalama
.
Trump has given $28b in farm aid, double than what Obama gave automakers in 2009
One Illinois farmer says Trump's subsidies are a Band-Aid, not a solution
Farmers say they'd rather have free trade than govt assistance
@MarioDParker
@MikeDorning
American Airlines CEO told 13K employees to ``tear up'' notices of possible furlough that they received last month.
Once the stimulus bill is signed into law ``we can happily say all of our U.S.-based team members now have job protection through September 30, 2021'
The Biden administration on Sunday froze Afghan government reserves held in U.S. bank accounts, blocking the Taliban from accessing billions of dollars held in U.S. institutions,
@JStein_WaPo
reports
UPDATE: Senator Elizabeth Warren calls for Treasury IG to investigate whether Treasury actually analyzed the tax plan and if there was political interference. Says Mnuchin "grossly misled the public."
Several TRUMP advisers tell me they think the race is "over," Biden has won
BIDEN's campaign's
@AndrewBatesNC
just now: “The American people will decide this election. And the United States government is perfectly capable of escorting trespassers out of the White House.”
Mnuchin's public engagement schedule fails to provide the countries that he will visit this week, and his travel dates. Press are also not invited on whatever trip he's taking, which is paid for by taxpayers.
I've heard it's to the middle east.
NEWS: The US has its first ever 'Madam' Treasury Secretary
@JanetYellen
has enough votes from Senators to become the 78th Treasury chief
She is the first woman to hold the job
No details on when Yellen will be sworn into office
O'Brien and senior staff on the NSC are tested daily for Covid-19. His office is around the corner from the Oval Office and is down the hall from Pence
w/
@JenniferJJacobs
NEW: Biden team is seriously considering banning Russia from SWIFT as European allies warm to the idea, per sources
No decision is imminent
This marks a change in course after Biden said yday he was holding off bc EU allies worried about blowback
w/
@josh_wingrove
+
@nwadhams
US + EU commit to removing selected Russian banks from Swift
Will impose "restrictive measures that will prevent the Russian central bank from deploying its int'l reserves in ways that undermine the impact of our sanctions"
Swift spokesman:
We are engaging with European authorities to understand the details of the entities that will be subject to the new measures and we are preparing to comply upon legal instruction
SCOOP: U.S. is REVOKING a sanctions reprieve for Israeli billionaire Dan Gertler, sources tell me and
@nwadhams
Gertler was sanctioned in 2017 for alleged mining, oil corruption. Mnuchin's Treasury gave him a special license to ease the pain. Yellen is undoing that.
The intelligence that Biden made public in a highly unusual step gave the world a preview of Vladimir Putin’s true intentions, robbing him of the element of surprise
Now Biden is saying that Putin's ambitions are beyond just Ukraine
Yellen in a statement: "A significant, unprecedented commitment today that provides tremendous momentum towards achieving a robust global minimum tax at a rate of at least 15%"
BREAKING: G7 finance ministers reach a deal for at least 15% global minimum tax
Delighted to announce G7 finance minster have reached a historic agreement to reform global tax system, UK's
@RishiSunak
at the conclusion of G7 talks just now
NEWS: The US has its first ever 'Madam' Treasury Secretary
@JanetYellen
has enough votes from Senators to become the 78th Treasury chief
She is the first woman to hold the job
No details on when Yellen will be sworn into office
Jay Powell says the 3 weeks since the Fed's rate cut have been 'eventful, beginning with the announcement of new tariffs on imports from China'
Says the US economy is in a 'favorable place' tho he is monitoring 'significant risks'
.
@jimtankersley
asks Biden how long Americans will have to stomach high gas prices resulting from Russia-Ukraine
Biden: "As long as it takes, so Russia cannot in fact defeat Ukraine and move beyond Ukraine."
2+ weeks after Trump announced he would defer payroll taxes, the IRS and Treasury have yet to provide businesses guidance on how that would play out
Chamber of Commerce has come out against it, saying it is "unworkable"
NEWS: Biden intends to name his longtime adviser Antony Blinken as secretary of State, sources tell
@jeneps
+
@tylerpager
and me
Jake Sullivan, an ex-Hillary Clinton’s aide, is likely to be named national security adviser
Announcement is expected Tuesday
The price of gas is down 50 cents/gallon in the past 34 days, per WH's
@econjared46
This is not a "daily blip"
Yesterday we witnessed largest decline since 2008, he says
NEW: Biden will to nominate Saule Omarova, a law professor who has criticized cryptocurrencies and advocated for the govt to have a much bigger role in banking, to run the OCC
Saule Omarova
w/
@jesseahamilton
+
@benbain
More on
@TheTerminal
Top German econ official says Putin "can't keep going much longer"
A shortage of software updates for aircraft will soon ground planes + lack of high-tech equipment will destroy production
Putin can "barely spend" its oil earnings bc of sanctions
“We’re working hard first to get the direct payments out,” Yellen told
@NBCNews
in an interview
She says the $1.9T stimulus package signed into law today is the "right size"
“I don’t believe we have overshot the mark"
Trump on Fox News says the hardest country for him to deal with as president is the US
"We have very very deceptive people"
"The inner workings of the US are very difficult"
He's referring to Democrats
SCOOP: Yellen has told senior WH advisers she backs *REAPPOINTING* Jay Powell as Fed chair, sources tell me
Biden has not made a decision and will likely weigh in around Labor Day, I'm told
More on
@TheTerminal
Biden will sign a sweeping EO tomorrow designed to promote competition across American industries
It will prompt the govt to set new regulations on everything from airline luggage fees to non-compete clauses
Via
@justinsink
Supreme Court makes history, live-streaming arguments from a 2-week remote session starting today:
May 12 could be interesting: The court will hear about a dispute over subpoenas for Trump’s financial records
The president could respond in real-time
From Yellen's prepared remarks for tomorrow:
"Neither the President-elect, nor I, propose this relief package without an appreciation for the country’s debt burden. But right now, with interest rates at historic lows, the smartest thing we can do is act big"
w/
@jendeben
Yellen says Larry Summers' worries over Biden's package adding to inflationary risks are small compared to "scarring" of economy by not spending enough now
If inflation becomes a problem, "I can tell you we have the tools to deal with that risk if that" happens, she said
White House's
@BharatRamamurti
provides details on PPP loans:
- 300k loans for firms with less than 5 workers
- 200k loans for first-time PPP borrowers
- 20% boost in loans for minority owned cos
- 14% increase to women-owned biz
Mnuchin personally asked for an unusual move to allow a Mike Milken property to be eligible for opportunity zones tax breaks,
@nytimes
reports
Treasury staffers were "troubled" by having to "compromise the integrity of the process"
Biden on price gouging:
"It's no excuse to exercise excessive price increases for padding profits or any kind of effort to exploit this situation for American consumers"
"It's no time for profiteering or price gouging"
GOP Sen.
@HawleyMO
on Yellen: "My concerns as I've said before about what I'm seeing from Vice President Biden is the people who he wants to be in his cabinet are all a bunch of corporate liberals and warmongers. So I'd like to see him break the mold. “
@elwasson
NEWS: American Airlines will begin layoff 19k workers tomorrow
"Extremely sorry we have reached this outcome," CEO Doug Parker says in note to employees. "We're not done fighting."
Will reverse layoffs if federal aid comes through, per memo
NEWS: Biden admin is poised to impose a ban on US imports of Russian energy as soon as TODAY w/out European allies, sources tell
@annmarie
@JenniferJJacobs
and me
The ban will include Russian oil, liquefied natural gas and coal
White House officials have told supporters they will pledge to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by at least half by the end of the decade, an almost doubling of the nation’s earlier commitment
BREAKING: Biden-world has asked Fed's LAEL BRAINARD to remain at the central bank, meaning Biden will choose someone else as Treasury chief, sources tell me and
@PeterMartin_PCM
This opens up the possibility for her to become Fed chair when Powell's term expires Feb 2022
BREAKING: G7 finance ministers reach a deal for at least 15% global minimum tax
Delighted to announce G7 finance minster have reached a historic agreement to reform global tax system, UK's
@RishiSunak
at the conclusion of G7 talks just now
At the
@G7
in London today, Chancellor
@RishiSunak
and his counterparts came to a historic agreement on global tax reform that will require the largest multinational tech giants will pay their fair share of tax in the UK.
Fed Chair Jay Powell said today that his commute home takes him past a “substantial tent city” of homeless Americans
“We just need to keep reminding ourselves that even though some parts of the economy are just doing great, there’s a very large group of people who are not"
Trump plans to fly to his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida sometime before Joe Biden’s inauguration, where several current White House staff will work for him or his son-in-law Jared Kushner after his presidency, sources tell
@JenniferJJacobs
and me
“Sanctioning Russia’s central bank is likely to have a dramatic effect on the Russian eco and its banking system, similar to what we saw in '91,” per
@elinaribakova
She sees "massive bank runs... possibly a full-on collapse of Russia’s financial system"
Another top Fed official busted on trading: VC Clarida traded between $1m-$5m out of a bond fund into stock funds one day before Powell issued a statement flagging possible policy action as the pandemic worsened, his 2020 financial disclosures show
United Airlines warns of laying off 36k workers, or 45% of its workforce, at the end of Sept, which is when the govt's restrictions on payroll reductions lifts
United got $5b in payroll assistance relief from Treasury, and has signaled it may take additional federal loans
Pelosi says House Dems will propose a resolution calling on Pence to convene and mobilize the Cabinet to activate the 25th to declare the Trump "incapable of executing the duties of his office"
....proportionate to shooting down an unmanned drone. I am in no hurry, our Military is rebuilt, new, and ready to go, by far the best in the world. Sanctions are biting & more added last night. Iran can NEVER have Nuclear Weapons, not against the USA, and not against the WORLD!
US and EU working with SWIFT to determine whether energy-related transactions can be exempted from the ban or if there are certain banks that conduct most energy transactions that could be exempted, a White House official said in a briefing call with reporters
UPDATE: Pennsylvania Sec of State
@KathyBoockvar
says it will take longer to determine who won the state bc it's
"very close"
They are on track to finish end of Friday
Majority of ballots counted but "it's not quite clear yet who the winner is"
She's not aware of any fraud
Wally Adeyemo will be Yellen's No. 2 at Treasury, if both are confirmed
Born in Nigeria, he emigrated with his parents as a baby. His father was a teacher, his mother was a nurse
By
@arappeport
Mnuchin speaks at university for first time, hissed at by the audience. He teases UCLA back:
- I usually speak to people who want to hear me
- You get to hiss at me, I don't get to hiss at you
- can you at least raise your hands when you hiss?
- you're hissing about sanctions?
Bloomberg News called up Trump's wealthiest donors. Most didn’t respond. A few published statements. No one agreed to be interviewed on the record.
From one billionaire's assistant: "He doesn’t believe mainstream news reporting anymore”
Halting stimulus efforts means 50k airline workers will be out of jobs just as Americans are going to the polls
No airline relief appears to be in sight
Last week, Disney also announced 28k workers cut
Mnuchin faced-down a fight in Congress to lift some sanctions on Deripaska, promising that
@USTreasury
would keep a close watch
2 yrs later: Deripaska has violated sanctions to support his personal business interests and the political agenda of the Kremlin around the world
The Fed should lower rates (there is almost no inflation) and loosen, making us competitive with other nations, and manufacturing will SOAR! Dollar is very strong relative to others.
NEW: Treasury is studying ways it might temporarily expand FDIC coverage for bank deposits above $250k w/o formal consent from Congress
They **do not** yet view such a move as necessary but are preparing in case the situation worsens
w/
@sridinats
OPEC+ panel recommends cutting output by 2m barrels/day
Draft memo sent from WH to Treasury on Monday said a cut would be of a “total disaster” and warned that it could be taken as a “hostile act," per
@CNN
Biden admin worried about gas prices rising ahead of elections
The Fed is NOT happy about Mnuchin's announcement today:
"The Federal Reserve would prefer that the full suite of emergency facilities established during the coronavirus pandemic continue to serve their important role as a backstop for our still-strained and vulnerable economy."
NEWS: Mnuchin asked the Federal Reserve to return unused coronavirus stimulus money, but asked for a 90-day extension for four of the central bank’s emergency lending programs
Biden says he spent TWO HOURS on phone with Xi yesterday, per
@Jordanfabian
in the Oval Office press spray
“If we don’t get moving, they’re going to eat our lunch”
BREAKING: Mnuchin is returning EARLY to Washington from his overseas trip, I am told
It is not to invoke the 25th amendment, this person says
He will return about 3 days early from his 7-country trip to mideast and N. Africa
NEWS: The US govt continues to seek information on private agreements Musk made w/ foreign investors that now hold stakes in Twitter, and whether those deals allow them to access users’ personal data, sources tell me,
@DanielPFlatley
+
@JenniferJJacobs
Russian citizens want American dollars
They are waiting in lines to get to ATMs
“The situation is completely unstable... no cash machine is designed for the lines that will appear at sanctioned banks"
Andy Baukhol, a civil servant
@USTreasury
, is now acting Treasury secretary
As Mnuchin departed for the last time from the building, he left a note for Janet Yellen, his successor
Shelton’s nomination to the Federal board was blocked, 50-47
Once the outcome was clear, McConnell switched his vote to no, a tactical move that would allow him to bring the nomination up for reconsideration later
IMF may launch a new program to help deal w/the global shortage of dollars, boosting the Fed's current efforts
IMF would create a short-term liquidity line that could be launched w/in weeks
The Treasury Department backs the initiative, me +
@EMPosts
report
More on
@TheTerminal
Larry Summers says is won't join a Biden administration
‘’My time in government is behind me’’
Summers has already been Treasury secretary and lobbied hard for Obama to choose him as Fed chair
He also likes to publicly criticize the current Treasury chief
Kudlow slammed Fed's Powell:
"Powell could lighten up a little when he has these press offerings... Smile now and then, a little bit of optimism... I'll talk with him and we'll have some media training at some point."
Powell yesterday predicted 9.3% unemployment for end-2020