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The Budget Lab

@The_Budget_Lab

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The Budget Lab at Yale is a non-partisan policy research center dedicated to providing in-depth analysis of federal proposals for the American economy.

https://t.co/vXHQy44mnl
Joined March 2024
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@The_Budget_Lab
The Budget Lab
@The_Budget_Lab
3 months
The Budget Lab at Yale has launched! Our non-partisan policy research center will provide in-depth analysis for federal policy proposals impacting the American economy. The Budget Lab aims to fill a critical gap in policy evaluation. Read more:
The Budget Lab at Yale Will Provide In-Depth Analysis for Federal Policy Proposals
budgetlab.yale.edu
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@The_Budget_Lab
The Budget Lab
@The_Budget_Lab
2 months
Budget Lab Director of Economics @ernietedeschi spoke with @NPR 's @HorsleyScott about the Federal Reserve and the US Economy. "What's underpinning the Fed's concern and mystery is economic strength, not economic weakness" - Ernie Tedeschi
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Wages, employment, inflation are up, causing headaches for the Fed

The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady this week — and possibly for months to come — as policymakers try to sort through mixed signals about the U.S. economy.

www.npr.org
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@The_Budget_Lab
The Budget Lab
@The_Budget_Lab
2 months
Read @petercoy @nytimes latest column that cites the new Budget Lab report from @ernietedeschi "Political Risks to the U.S. Safe Harbor Premium" Peter Coy's column:
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Opinion | What Would Happen if the U.S. Suddenly Seemed Like a Risky Investment?

The American economy has long been a safe haven, but it might not be forever.

www.nytimes.com
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@The_Budget_Lab
The Budget Lab
@The_Budget_Lab
1 month
@ErnieTedeschi spoke to @HansNichols @axios about wage growth and the US economy. "The good news is that wage growth has been outpacing inflation for more than a year. But it will take more of that before consumer attitudes about prices brighten back up."
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Biden's fast food problem

Fast food restaurants have had some of the sharpest price hikes during the Biden administration.

www.axios.com
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@The_Budget_Lab
The Budget Lab
@The_Budget_Lab
18 days
@ernietedeschi spoke with @RichardRubinDC for his recent @WSJ article: “We have to think about the unforeseen consequences of this,” said Ernie Tedeschi, a former Biden administration economist who is now at Yale University’s Budget Lab. “Money finds a way to game the system.”
@RichardRubinDC
Richard Rubin
@RichardRubinDC
19 days
New from us: Trump is proposing to make tips non-taxable. That would likely mean... more requests for tips.
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@The_Budget_Lab
The Budget Lab
@The_Budget_Lab
18 days
Ahead of CPI tomorrow, read @marthagimbel 's new @The_Budget_Lab commentary “Where Is Inflation Heading? Yearly Changes May Be Deceiving."
Where Is Inflation Heading? Yearly Changes May Be Deceiving
budgetlab.yale.edu
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@The_Budget_Lab
The Budget Lab
@The_Budget_Lab
2 months
Director of Economics at The Budget Lab @ernietedeschi spoke with Rogé Karma for his article in @TheAtlantic "The Inflation Plateau" “The excess inflation we have left is in a few esoteric areas that reflect past price increases" - Ernie Tedeschi
The Inflation Plateau

Prices have been rising faster than expected for the past three months. What’s going on?

www.theatlantic.com
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@The_Budget_Lab
The Budget Lab
@The_Budget_Lab
3 months
Watch The Budget Lab Launch event at the National Press Club! Thank you to @ShalandaYoung46 , @greg_ip , Josh Bolten, and @djheakin for participating in the event and discussing how to innovate US policy analysis.
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White House Budget Director and Others Discuss Budget Analysis

Current and former federal officials gathered for the launch of The Budget Lab at Yale, a new policy research center, in Washington, DC. Former White House Budget Director Joshua Bolten (200…

www.c-span.org
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@The_Budget_Lab
The Budget Lab
@The_Budget_Lab
3 months
@Zachary highlights The Budget Lab team @NatashaRSarin @dannyyagan @marthagimbel @ernietedeschi @richpriz @riccoja @HEppsteiner whose goal is to bring fresh ideas and new methods to policy making.
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The new scorekeepers

A team of economic heavy-hitters wants to shake up how Washington thinks about the budget, just in time for next year’s tax reform brawl.

www.politico.com
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@The_Budget_Lab
The Budget Lab
@The_Budget_Lab
19 days
Associate Director of Policy Analysis @riccoja released a new @The_Budget_Lab analysis, “Pandemic-Era Trends in Estate Tax Collections.” Read it here:
Pandemic-Era Trends in Estate Tax Collections
budgetlab.yale.edu
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@The_Budget_Lab
The Budget Lab
@The_Budget_Lab
15 days
@The_Budget_Lab 's @ernietedeschi on @SquawkCNBC this morning weighs in on the corporate tax rate and TCJA.
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The great tax debate: How will GOP fund tax cuts?

CNBC's Robert Frank and Marc Short, former chief of staff to Vice President Mike Pence and former Trump White House Director of Legislative Affairs, and Ernie Tedeshi, director of economics at The...

www.cnbc.com
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@The_Budget_Lab
The Budget Lab
@The_Budget_Lab
30 days
"Martha Gimbel, a former economic advisor in the White House, notes that the ten-year budget window - the main time frame for evaluating fiscal effects - is biased against investments in children and the environment."
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@The_Budget_Lab
The Budget Lab
@The_Budget_Lab
2 months
Today's @Politico Morning Money @Zachary cites the "the cost of political risk" from a new @The_Budget_Lab report by  @ErnieTedeschi
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The crypto tide turns

The cryptocurrency industry has been waging a battle in the courts for the freedom to grow, and so far, it’s not going well.

www.politico.com
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@The_Budget_Lab
The Budget Lab
@The_Budget_Lab
2 months
Link to full Budget Lab report:
Political Risks to the U.S. Safe Harbor Premium
budgetlab.yale.edu
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@The_Budget_Lab
The Budget Lab
@The_Budget_Lab
22 days
@samjsutton @politico interviews @The_Budget_Lab 's @marthagimbel and @ernietedeschi for today's Morning Money Jobs Day analysis: “It’s like a murder trial, there's a lot of circumstantial evidence." - Tedeschi
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A high-stakes jobs report as the economy softens

If the labor market is softer than the headline number suggests, it raises the risk that the Fed might be slow to cut interest costs.

www.politico.com
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@The_Budget_Lab
The Budget Lab
@The_Budget_Lab
3 months
@Neil_Irwin writes about The Budget Lab’s initial analysis, which examines both the Tax Cut and Jobs Act (TCJA) and the Child Tax Credit (CTC).
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Biden alums want to change how we measure a bill's financial impacts

Their pitch: Legislative scorekeeping is at best too narrow, and at worst stands in the way of sensible policymaking.

www.axios.com
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@The_Budget_Lab
The Budget Lab
@The_Budget_Lab
1 month
@marthagimbel on the Tax Chats podcast with @ScottDyreng and @JeffLHoopes to discuss the launch of @The_Budget_Lab , our recent reports on TCJA and CTC, and even the Budget Lab dogs! Listen here:
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‎Tax Chats: The Budget Lab at Yale: A Chat with Martha Gimbel on Apple Podcasts

‎Show Tax Chats, Ep The Budget Lab at Yale: A Chat with Martha Gimbel - May 16, 2024

podcasts.apple.com
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@The_Budget_Lab
The Budget Lab
@The_Budget_Lab
1 month
Great to see the work of @ernietedeschi @The_Budget_Lab on US "safe harbor premium" in the newly released  @GUFinPolicy paper.
@GUFinPolicy
GU Psaros Center for Financial Markets and Policy
@GUFinPolicy
1 month
. @ernietedeschi wrote about R* – the "most important unobservable economic concept at the moment." Tedeschi explains the long and short-term run of the natural rate of interest and theorizes about the effects of the pandemic, the impact of fiscal and political risks, and why it
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@The_Budget_Lab
The Budget Lab
@The_Budget_Lab
2 months
@marthagimbel weighs in on the federal debt on @NPR @theindicator with @DarianWoods and @VelocityWong
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Is the federal debt REALLY that bad? : The Indicator from Planet Money

Sandwiched between a burger joint and an oyster bar in New York City hangs a daunting image: The National Debt Clock. And that debt number? It just keeps ticking up. How deep in the hole are we?...

www.npr.org
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@The_Budget_Lab
The Budget Lab
@The_Budget_Lab
1 month
@The_Budget_Lab President @NatashaRSarin 's latest piece in @PostOpinions explores how tax filing in the United States should be a lot simpler.
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Opinion | Trump is wrong about almost everything on taxes, except this

Tax filing in the United States should be a lot simpler.

www.washingtonpost.com
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@The_Budget_Lab
The Budget Lab
@The_Budget_Lab
2 months
Gimbel: "I would become a lot more concerned if political dysfunction and political risk increases. When you've seen some of the credit ratings agencies downgrade U.S. debt, one of the things they've mentioned is political risk in the United States."
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@The_Budget_Lab
The Budget Lab
@The_Budget_Lab
3 months
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@The_Budget_Lab
The Budget Lab
@The_Budget_Lab
2 months
"US enjoys a safe harbor investment premium—a value that investors place on US safety, soundness and stability. Even a relatively modest move in risk premia would have profound implications for the US."
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@The_Budget_Lab
The Budget Lab
@The_Budget_Lab
3 months
Natasha Sarin's latest Washington Post op ed: "Policy makers should grapple with not just the costs- but also the benefits - of investment." That's why The Budget Lab has launched aimed at providing this needed analysis.
Opinion | Trump’s tax cuts are expiring soon. What should come next?

Analysts in the Congressional Budget Office, the Joint Tax Committee and other groups “score” the costs of — and savings from — different policy plans.

www.washingtonpost.com
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@The_Budget_Lab
The Budget Lab
@The_Budget_Lab
2 months
Link to full Budget Lab report:
Political Risks to the U.S. Safe Harbor Premium
budgetlab.yale.edu
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@The_Budget_Lab
The Budget Lab
@The_Budget_Lab
23 days
@marthagimbel provides a Jobs Day preview "Prime-Age Employment: Flashing Yellow - or a Sign of a Soft Landing"
Prime-Age Employment: Flashing Yellow – or a Sign of a Soft Landing?
budgetlab.yale.edu
@marthagimbel
Martha Gimbel
@marthagimbel
23 days
As improvement in the employment rate for prime-age workers has slowed markedly in recent months – it’s time to start asking – is this a sign of post-pandemic normalization, an economy heading towards full employment, and a soft landing…or of something more worrisome? 1/
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