The Economic Report of the President has revealed that the quality of interns at CEA is much better than it was when I was there....we never got cool ones like Steve Rogers, Bruce Wayne, Peter Parker, Aunt May, and John Cleese
I just want to state for the record that in my college corporate finance class I was docked class participation points for saying that it was possible to have negative interest rates and yes I am the kind of student who 10 years later wants my points back
Whatever your policy views/differences, I have never understood the Elizabeth Warren is “unlikable” narrative. Every time she talks I just want to go get drinks with her and debate policy until 2am
I am signing off before I say anything out of anger, sadness, and fear I can't take back.
Millions are barreling towards long-term unemployment. There are things we can do about this, both to stop it and ameliorate it.
This. Does. Not. Have. To. Happen.
Economics grad students! Aspiring research assistants! Reminder that the Council of Economic Advisers hires junior staff on the academic year schedule - you can apply by emailing recruiting
@cea
.eop.gov. Resume/writing sample/code sample would be great.
I still maintain the most important policy question right now is which "error" would you rather make: someone who doesn't "need" money gets it, or someone who desperately needs it gets the money they need
I am so incredibly excited that
@gbenga_ajilore
is going to be a Senior Advisor at
@USDA
! This is amazing news for USDA, for rural communities, and for Gbenga Fans (aka me) 1/
Kudos to the Biden Administration for strong macro economic growth.
I’ll focus on ensuring more of that growth accrues to the 60% of Americans living paycheck to paycheck and 40% with < $400 in the bank.
➡️American Dream Accounts, Nat’l Health Insurance, Debt Free Education,
So excited to announce that
@natasharsarin
and
@dannyyagan
and I are launching
@the_budget_lab
at Yale Law School. Budget scoring is an incredibly important part of the policy process and our hope is to bring a new perspective, with a focus on innovation and transparency. 1/
@Nicole_Cliffe
My 4 yr old sister was worried about divorce(friends’ parents were divorcing): my mom tried the “we love each other” thing to no avail, so she opened up the cabinets & said “do you see all this?If we got divorced we would have to clean and deal with it” & my sister went “ok cool”
@Nicole_Cliffe
My mother once left my three year old sister alone in a hotel room for 30 seconds and came back to her calmly saying into the phone “Chocolate syrup please!”
Today the long-term unemployed are 21% of the unemployed. In 1969 (the last time the unemployment rate was at 3.7%), they were 4.7% of the unemployed.
Another reminder that the unemployment rate is really not telling us everything about the labor market right now.
Fun fact: soon after we started at the WH
@ernietedeschi
and I had to sit the comms team down and go “so there’s this thing called the chief neoliberal shill and sometimes it gets very heated on twitter but just a heads up” and I’ve never gotten so many blank stares in my life
"Employment in food services and drinking places rose
by 61,000 over the month and has returned to its pre-pandemic February 2020 level." Congrats everyone, we did the hard work of going out to eat and it paid off
The number of conclusions economists have come to incorrectly this year partly because they don't understand selection in private-sector datasets is...baffling
Everyone likes to debate whether or not macro should be a required course for econ grad students, but no one is engaging with the real issue, which is a course on making graphs that make sense to laypeople
We are so willing in this country to cause suffering for millions because a few people might get more money than is "optimal". That is insane. It is simply insane. 9/
If one more person who has not focused on unemployment insurance before this crisis says that it isn’t a big deal to replace the $600 with a % of earnings, I will not be held responsible for my actions
Lots of people asserting that the job growth is just people taking on 2nd or 3rd jobs. Doesn't seem to be the case.
Multiple job holders as a share of total employed is around 5%, about where it was pre-pandemic.
Earlier today I was in an article about the black-white unemployment gap saying "I can't believe I have to say this but it's not skills" and immediately got a ton of incoming from people saying "but but but" and I would just like to reiterate my previous statement
New
@BrennanCenter
report:
“A white person with a criminal conviction earns more annually than a Black person who has never been convicted of a crime.”
@RobinHoodNYC
When you have a newborn everything feels very surreal...which is just to say that this is a very weird week to have welcomed a new human into the world
One does hate to dunk on people who didn't read the whole assignment, but the text that you cut off at the end of this section says that in the second half of 2020 the $600 would stimulate the economy
Two weeks ago I said to Lee “oooo you know what we should do on Jan 1?” And he immediately responded “I am not spending New Year’s Day prepping tax return materials Martha”
WSJ SCOOP: The FBI is conducting a criminal investigation of a company with ties to acting Attorney General Matthew Whitaker (who will now oversee the FBI) via
@WSJ
Economists have spent a lot of time debating the exact right way to structure stimulus packages right now. We have spent almost no time on the most important part of any stimulus package: ability to actually deliver the money to people.
@econwonk
I mean honestly, since I keep telling
@CardiffGarcia
that my team is the Avengers of labor market data I'm a bit annoyed that Steve Rogers jumped ship without telling me
Today Cappy signaled that she wanted to go for a walk by jumping up on the kitchen counter, grabbing a mask, and bringing it to me. A true pandemic puppy.
Hello! As some of you know, Lee and I got in a car accident on Thursday. (Car is totaled, we are alive).
Anyway, if I'm slow to respond right now, it is because I am lying in a dark room and silently cursing Henry Ford. (I'm sure buggies never crashed into each other)
The unemployment rate for those with a college degree is currently 5.3%. This is higher than the peak during the Great Recession of 5%. Compare to those with less than a high school degree (at 12.6%). During the Great Recession it hit 15.8%...and was still at 12.6% in 2012.
Thoughts and prayers to the EconTwitter and economics reporter community at this difficult time (and obviously huge congrats and excitement for
@JedKolko
on his nomination!)
Lee just came into my office (at 935am, when it is safe to speak to me again) and went "Martha! The jobs numbers! But also the revisions!!!"
He is officially one of us.
I just want to point out that the universal response of UI experts seems to be “we don’t know what the fuck is going on” which is not necessarily the best beginning
Anytime any academic economist makes a comment about how something makes sense and has broad support and so shouldn’t be too difficult to pass legislatively I just kind of sigh and want to pat them softly and offer cookies
Since it’s the time of year when many
@WhiteHouseCEA
staff turnover, and I’m still processing people’s departures, here is a thread on some of the amazing junior staff who recently did a tour at
@WhiteHouseCEA
:
This is terrifying from an economic perspective and also a reminder that in many ways we’re reliant on data from companies right now to find out what’s happening in the economy
Data from
@OpenTable
on restaurant demand in Seattle.
Stunning trend break the day the first
#covid_19
death was announced.
We held steady around -30% for about a week.
It's all downhill since.
after years of stubbornly holding out, i might be ready to admit that we need a alsdjfa;sdlkjf;aldkj PRINTER IN THE HOME
please tell me the one that will cause the least annoyance in my life. no it does not to be "good" or "high quality" it just needs to not break w/in 9 months
I often feel like who am I to be sending out tweets/putting out graphs about economic data? I get things wrong all the time!
And then I see what other people feel extremely confident saying with as far as I can tell no understanding whatsoever and I return to my graphs
This feels like a good morning to say that when I was at CEA, our chief of staff had to run by White House Counsel whether or not my working at a spin studio in return for spin classes was an ethics violation.
I am so excited that
@EvermoreMichele
is joining the Department of Labor - the entire unemployment insurance policy community would not have been able to get throw this past year without her and tbh the idea of having to do anything on UI without her in the room gives me hives
Appendix for twitter: often people look at the percentage point change in the employment-population ratio. Using that measure, men and women's drop in employment during the pandemic has looked somewhat similar.
Giving that this is CEA's last tweet thread of the year, I just want to say how much I have loved working with the CEA staff over the last year. It's an amazing group of smart, dedicated, and incredibly kind people and I feel incredibly lucky.
As the government shutdown drags on, Federal workers who aren't getting paid are increasingly looking for work. And it looks like even workers at some funded agencies are starting to consider their future in government. 1/
@Nicole_Cliffe
Refusing to be soothed with expressions of emotion and only being calmed by a clear expression of process barriers is VERY on brand for my family
My favorite thing is introducing a new person to how insane the unemployment insurance system actually is in practice and watching them become One of Us
Lee just came into my office and goes “so the numbers are good…which is great…but does that mean everyone’s going to be mad and freak out? I hate economics” and walked out again
A farewell thread re: the
@WhiteHouseCEA
junior staff who are the absolute best and you should follow all of them (except for the ones who are too smart to be on twitter): 1/
“Children cannot smooth their eating over the year,” Ms. Ananat said. “Families that do not have access to credit cannot smooth their food, their electricity, any of their necessities.”
The $600 a week in extra unemployment benefits ran out in July. Congress and the president can’t agree on how to replace them.
For many Americans, it may already be too late to prevent lasting financial harm.
With
@gillianreporter
The savings rate was 14 perfect...seems like more fuel for
@econjared
theory that the average savings rate is being pulled up by higher-income people saving a LOT, not people able to save huge chunks of their UI benefits
Come be a junior staffer at CEA! I promise
@ernietedeschi
and I won’t sing showtunes at you all the time*
*this is a lie, but I can promise awesome graphs
The Council of Economic Advisers is hiring Staff Economists and Research Assistants for the upcoming year (starting in summer of 2022). Please visit our website to learn more or apply: