Vasil Lazarov @VasilSurvation Twitter profile

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

5 months

Survation MRP: Godalming and Ash 👉 Jeremy Hunt trailing the Lib Dems by 11% 👉 Lib Dems have a 98% chance of winning the seat

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

4 months

🚨 With 8 days left until polling day, this is the lowest Conservative share we’ve recorded 📈At the same time, Starmer has doubled his lead over Sunak on the best PM question since the start of the campaign

Survation.

@Survation

4 months

NEW Survation Telephone Tracker for @GMB - Poll 3/4 LAB 41% (-) CON 18% (-2) REF 14% (-1) LD 12% (-) GRE 5% (-1) SNP 2% (nc) OTH 7% (+2) F/w 21st - 25th June. Changes vs. 19th June 2024. @JackSurvation explores the findings below:

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

4 months

Our first MRP Update Since Farage's Return

Survation.

@Survation

4 months

NEW: First MRP Since Farage’s return. Labour on course for 262 seat majority. LAB 456 CON 72 LD 56 SNP 37 RFM 7 PC 2 GRN 1 42,269 interviews conducted online and on the phone Fwk 31 May - 13 June Conducted on behalf of @BestForBritain . @VasilSurvation and @JackSurvation

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

4 months

🚨MRP Klaxon🚨 Labour is likely to take more than *four times* as many seats from the Conservatives as they did from Labour in 2019

Survation.

@Survation

4 months

NEW MRP: Labour 99% Certain To Win More Seats Than in 1997 Labour on Course to Win 484 seats. The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are in a close race to form the official opposition. Probabilistic seat count: LAB 484 CON 64 LD 61 SNP 10 RFM 7 PC 3 GRN 3 34,558 interviews

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

5 months

Survation MRP: Welwyn Hatfield 👉 Grant Shapps (Con) currently 15% behind Andrew Lewin (Lab) 👉 Grant Shapps win probability: 1%

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

5 months

Survation MRP GB Voting Intention Lab 43.2 Con 24.3 LD 10.4 RFM 11.4 GRN 4.2 SNP 3.3 PC 0.6 OTH 2.6

Survation.

@Survation

5 months

NEW: Our first MRP of the 2024 General Election Labour Set for Record Breaking Majority LAB 487 CON 71 LD 43 SNP 26 RFM 3 PC 2 30,044 interviews conducted online and on the phone Fwk 22 May - 2 June Conducted on behalf of @BestForBritain @VasilSurvation looks at the findings

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

5 months

Survation MRP: Richmond and Northallerton 👉 Rishi Sunak currently leads by 4% 👉 Win probability: 67%

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

6 months

Elphicke's associations with the right on social issues are well-documented, but we found that she is also to the right of the median Tory MP on *economic issues*. Just 10 MPs are more right wing on economic issues, including Truss and Braverman.

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

4 months

Survation MRP Update 👉 Reform are currently leading in 7 seats 👉 Reform are also currently performing better than the Conservatives in 59 seats 👉 BUT their largest lead at the moment is 8% (North West Norfolk)

Survation.

@Survation

4 months

NEW: First MRP Since Farage’s return. Labour on course for 262 seat majority. LAB 456 CON 72 LD 56 SNP 37 RFM 7 PC 2 GRN 1 42,269 interviews conducted online and on the phone Fwk 31 May - 13 June Conducted on behalf of @BestForBritain . @VasilSurvation and @JackSurvation

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

5 months

National service policy is evidently an attempt to reclaim Reform voters, but it’s not a panacea for the Tories. Our MRP for @BestForBritain in March revealed that even in the ideal scenario where Reform UK doesn’t stand any candidates, the Conservatives would win only 150 seats

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

5 months

Survation MRP: Portsmouth North 👉 Amanda Martin (Lab) leads Penny Mordaunt (Con) by 9% 👉 Win probability: 10%

Survation.

@Survation

5 months

NEW: Our first MRP of the 2024 General Election Labour Set for Record Breaking Majority LAB 487 CON 71 LD 43 SNP 26 RFM 3 PC 2 30,044 interviews conducted online and on the phone Fwk 22 May - 2 June Conducted on behalf of @BestForBritain @VasilSurvation looks at the findings

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

4 months

6 days out. Asteroid getting closer!

Survation.

@Survation

4 months

NEW: Penultimate MRP Update. Labour on Course to Win 470 Seats and Become the Largest Party in Scotland. Probabilistic seat count: LAB 470 CON 85 LD 56 SNP 12 RFM 4 PC 3 GRN 2 23,364 interviews conducted online and on the telephone Fwk 15th - 27th June

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

4 months

Key point from @chrishanretty 👇 If you *only* use historic data on elections under FPTP and you expect a Labour lead of around 19 points, you should expect them to win 68% of the seats, or 442 seats.

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

5 months

Survation MRP: North West Essex 👉 Kemi Badenoch ahead by 2% 👉 Win probability: 64%

NW Essex Labour

@LabourEssexNW

5 months

@VasilSurvation Could you let us know how near to beating Kemi we are? A month to go but we feel like we are closing in locally :-)

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

5 months

Our first poll of Scotland in the election campaign places Labour 4 points ahead of the SNP. Labour are attracting voters from all parties. Current support is made up of: 21% 2019 SNP voters 17% Con 33% LibDem 47% Other (usual caveats about smaller sample cross breaks apply)

Fergus Mutch

@Fergoodness

5 months

Labour lead the pack among voters in Scotland with little over five weeks until the country goes to the polls. 36% of Scots are set to back Labour in a Westminster vote. The SNP could expect to win 32% of the vote — six points down on where they stood just two months ago.

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

5 months

Survation MRP: Braintree 👉 James Cleverly (Con) set to lose to Matthew Wright (Lab) 👉 Lab win probability: 89%

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

5 months

Reform’s performance will be the key difference between a bad night and a total wipeout for the Tories. Reform are currently more popular than the Tories among 18-24 year olds and as popular among the 45-54 group. Labour are in the lead among all but 65+

Survation.

@Survation

5 months

NEW: First Westminster voting intention since Farage announced his candidacy. LAB 43 (-4) CON 23 (-1) LD 9 (-2) GRN 5 (+2) RFM 15 (+7) SNP 3 (-) OTH 3 (-1) F/w 5th - 6th June. Changes vs. 27th May 2024. 1,056 adults in Great Britain.

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

4 months

Bella couldn’t wait for the 10pm exit poll so decided to conduct her own by sniffing everyone who went into the polling station 🐶 ⁦ @VotingDogs ⁩ #dogsatpollingstations

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

4 months

Labour 99% Certain To Win More Seats Than in 1997

Survation MRP: Labour 99% Certain To Win More Seats Than in 1997 | Survation

With two days until polls open, Survation predict that Labour will win the 2024 general election with 484 out of a total 650 seats. The...

www.survation.com

Survation.

@Survation

4 months

NEW MRP: Labour 99% Certain To Win More Seats Than in 1997 Labour on Course to Win 484 seats. The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are in a close race to form the official opposition. Probabilistic seat count: LAB 484 CON 64 LD 61 SNP 10 RFM 7 PC 3 GRN 3 34,558 interviews

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

1 year

🧵What’s going on with the SNP’s lead in Scotland? SNP currently at +3 over LAB - lowest we’ve recorded since 2020 IndyRef2 attitudes stable - Yes 47, No 53 Scots want more devolution - 41%+ BUT Unconvinced about economic benefits of independence - 43%+ 1/11

Survation.

@Survation

1 year

NEW Scotland Polling Westminster Voting Intention: SNP 37% (-1) LAB 34% (+2) CON 17% (-1) LD 9% (nc) OTH 4% (nc) F/w 23rd - 28th June. Changes vs. 27th April - 3 May. @VasilSurvation investigates the findings.

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

4 months

ASTEROID WATCH LATEST: 15 DAYS LEFT #GE24

Alex Wickham

@alexwickham

4 months

Just an unbelievable chart Via @AlexJFMorales >>>

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

4 months

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

7 months

Key point here is that there are bound to be some outliers but the main benefit of MRP is to get constituency level estimates (for all constituencies) with significantly lower sample sizes than individual seat polls. Example - Godalming and Ash: Phone Poll vs MRP

Survation.

@Survation

7 months

Is the Conservative Party facing its worst defeat in history? @VasilSurvation breaks down what our latest MRP analysis for @BestForBritain does and doesn’t tell us in this article:

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

5 months

Heads up for anyone using new constituency codes - ONS have updated their codes for 5 constituencies in Scotland. Ours are all up to date but it might cause some discrepancies when comparing MRPs. Final (hopefully) names and codes here:

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

5 months

Since we are seeing many MRPs on the horizon, it would be very useful (and good practice) to see them accompanied by a measure of uncertainty in the seat estimates. We will be publishing high and low 95% credible intervals along with win probabilities for each seat estimate.

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

6 months

New ward level voter ID MRP in London shows considerable variation within Boroughs e.g., in Tower Hamlets: Bow West - 8.1% Bethnal Green - 3.3% Mile End - 7.2%

Survation.

@Survation

6 months

New: 5% of registered voters in London lack a valid form of photo ID Ward level estimates show that this the highest in Becontree - 11% (Barking and Dagenham) and lowest in Bloomsbury - 0.5% (Camden).

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

4 months

Our final poll, plus an extra MRP update with new data

Survation.

@Survation

4 months

Final Survation Poll of the 2024 General Election: 18 point Labour lead Labour: 37.6% Conservative: 19.9% Reform UK: 17.0% Liberal Democrats: 12.1% Green Party: 7.2% Scottish National Party: 3.0% Plaid Cymru: 0.6% Other: 2.4% Based on telephone interviews of 1,679 respondents

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

6 months

@MattMcMaster24 @pimlicat @DamianSurvation MRP produces different estimates outside of election periods because it uses data from people who tend to act differently during elections. Tactical vote recommendations are based on MRP with data collected during the campaign, not several months before polling day.

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

6 months

For more information: We are hoping to extend this to the cultural dimension before the end of this parliament!

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

1 year

I definitely wouldn't trust the London Mayor VI results here. Looking at the tables, something's definitely gone wrong with the weighting: -> 2021 Shaun Bailey voters are inflated by 6% in Mayoral tables vs others. -> 5% higher share for 2019 Tory voters...🙅‍♂️

Ben Walker

@BNHWalker

1 year

Only a 1pt Khan lead without Corbyn. Looks like Sadiq Khan could deny Sadiq Khan a third term, too.

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

4 months

Matt Goodwin

@GoodwinMJ

4 months

💥NEW💥BOMBSHELL poll Labour 35% Reform 24% Conservatives 15% Liberal Democrats 12% Greens 8% SNP 3% PeoplePolling/GBN Jun 18th Sample: 1,228 British adults Details, tables & commentary 👇👇👇

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

11 months

@Lt_Blackavar @Survation This is based on our notional estimates had 2019 played out on new boundaries

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

4 months

@ThePoliticalHQ @DamianSurvation

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

4 months

@JamesDAustin @p_surridge

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

5 months

This is an excellent go-to election resource on MRP and polls more generally 👇

Sophie Stowers

@SophieStowers

5 months

Using all the MRP chat as an excuse to big up @UKandEU ’s guide to polling… 📈🗳️

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

11 months

I made a dashboard to present some of our latest MRP estimates, feel free to explore 👇

Survation.

@Survation

11 months

🚨Dashboard Klaxon🧵 We worked with our partners at Lodestone Communications to build a GE 2024 dashboard, which has some cool features. The initial focus is on Labour vs Conservative battles, but there's MRP data and projections for all seats in GB:

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

6 months

Daily Facebook add spending for West Mids and Tees Valley by candidate Data from @WhoTargetsMe

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

4 months

@charliebuffet99 Hi Charlie, MRP doesn’t deal very well with very specific local factors. We like being transparent about our method and data so we don’t make manual adjustments to our estimates.

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

10 months

@PME_Politics AFAIK the shapefile for the final recommendations from here is the most accurate atm:

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

1 year

Some insights from Mid Beds... 👉 Tactical voting will be key 👉 19% of all voters are voting against the Tories 👉 Con would need to mobilise rather than convince 👉 42% of undecideds are certain to vote 👉 A lot will change between now and polling day More here:

Survation.

@Survation

1 year

Mid Bedfordshire By-Election Update The data tables, the data and some perspective:

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

6 months

👇👇👇

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

4 months

@OwenWntr @sundersays We’ve oversampled Clacton but I’m expecting better Farage performance there than it currently shows

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

6 months

@pimlicat Jo Gideon who's just 3 points higher than Munira Wilson

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

5 months

This should be standard practice 👇

Andy Lawton

@ABLPoli

5 months

Having looked a further at @Survation 's tables, can I just ask, please, *every* pollster, follow Survation on this. Constituency codes, hi, lo and mid vote shares, win probability's current winner&2nd place, 2019 winner and 2nd place It's fantastic, much more to learn from it.

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

4 months

@JTE85 Hi Joe, we use a full ballot prompt method with all parties/candidates standing in each seat.

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

9 months

And this is true when just removing either 2016/2019 or both…

Damian Lyons Lowe

@DamianSurvation

9 months

In case anyone was wondering, when we looked at the effect of removing past vote weighting, it turned a Labour lead of 17 into a Labour lead of 17.

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

5 months

@That_Garth_Guy @YetMap @Survation @BestForBritain There haven’t been any post-hoc adjustments to the estimates

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

4 months

@ramshackle78 @Survation @chrishanretty We have a great MRP set up at Survation HQ

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

5 months

@WTarbiat Margin of error is a lot higher with such small samples. Lib Dems have a relatively flat level of support across age groups. I would expect them to be closer to 8-10% with a larger sample.

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

5 months

@ABLPoli That’s why publishing weighted n for each option should be compulsory 😀

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

5 months

The implied vote shares from @ElectCalculus MRP put into the FT’s seat model

Damian Lyons Lowe

@DamianSurvation

5 months

As the releases are a bit confusing, here's the new Martin Baxter MRP. 2 Versions: Seat Projection Standard Method: LAB 493 CON 72 LD 39 SNP 22 PC 4 GRE 2 REF 0 Seat Projection Tactical Voting Adjustment LAB 476 CON 66 LD 59 SNP 26 PC 3 GRE 2 REF 0 Vote Share Figures Implied

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

1 year

In the last 3 months SNP is down -3 points (Westminster vote) 40 in April 38 in May 37 in June Some would’ve expected a more drastic drop, given recent events 2/11

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

6 months

@OwenWntr You don’t like “Other” winning 66 seats under FPTP??

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

4 months

@ABLPoli @DamianSurvation This passes the sniff test

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

6 months

@DamianSurvation @Samfr Just to clarify on the above - the % are likelihood to vote in the election 10/10, 9/10, 8/10

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

4 months

@MarwanData Good work, Marwan! Look forward to reading the full review.

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

1 year

Given the above, it is unlikely that voters will make their minds up with independence at the forefront of decision making. More (44% vs 35%) believe an independent Scotland’s economy would be worse off, and 43% vs 31% believe the same for CoL. 8/11

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

1 year

…which is partially true for SNP losses: 2019 SNP switchers are going to: 16% LAB 4% CON 3% OTH 1% LD 4/11

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

1 year

In net transfers, this would look something like LAB gaining: ~ 160k from SNP ~ 130k from CON ~ 50k from LD ~ 10k from OTH 6/11

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

5 months

@JackSurvation Plus great analysis by @Fergoodness and @WhatScotsThink here:

BALANCE TIPS IN LABOUR’S FAVOUR AMONG SCOTTISH VOTERS - True North

Labour lead the pack among voters in Scotland with little over five weeks until the country goes to the polls, according to new figures published today by True North. 36% of Scots are set to back...

truenorth.scot

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

10 months

@thesourwaitress @Survation The estimates here actually seem to be from MRP analysis (old boundaries) on data we collected b/w 10-17 Feb for @38degrees , here's the link:

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

5 months

Time for another campaign relaunch?

Who Targets Me

@WhoTargetsMe

5 months

All of the Tories paid digital campaigns have been switched off.

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

5 months

Our first poll of the campaign shows a slight (within MOE) increase of Labour's lead

Survation.

@Survation

5 months

NEW: First Westminster voting intention from the campaign period. 23 point Labour lead. LAB 47 (-1) CON 24 (-3) LD 11 (+3) GRN 3 (+1) RFM 8 (-) SNP 3 (-) OTH 4 (-) F/w 24th - 27th May. Changes vs. 22nd May 2024.

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

1 year

NEW #MidBedfordshire by-election poll by @Survation : CON 29 LAB 29 LD 22 More here:

Labour and Tories neck and neck in byelection race for Mid Beds, poll says

Survey reveals Labour more likely than Lib Dems to overturn Conservatives’ 25,000 majority in Nadine Dorries’s former seat

www.theguardian.com

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

4 months

@herculeanstable @BestForBritain I think all pollsters who use MRP do well with reporting their methodology and it's limitations but we can't control how third parties report it. We love doing constituency polls, would be more than happy to assist if you'd like to commission one!

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

1 year

BUT LAB is currently attracting the lowest share of 2019 voters from the SNP. Instead: 25% of 2019 LD voters 23% of OTH parties 20% of CON 16% of SNP 5/11

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

1 year

Labour in the same period is up +2 points 32 in April 31 in May 34 in June At first glance, it seems that Labour might be gaining voters directly from the SNP… 3/11

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

5 months

@ABLPoli I haven't seen the tables but this usually happens if you set a hard turnout threshold (say 7+) and hard-code others' weights to 0, then rebase. Personally not a fan

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

1 year

All in all, the SNP continues to be in the lead, despite the decreasing margin. It suggests good levels of stickiness with their core base, though in our *UK* party identity polling, they are the party with the weakest supporters in terms of strength. 10/11

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

4 months

@herculeanstable @BestForBritain Yes, it’s a constituency poll of Clacton. The findings will be on our website shortly!

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

4 months

Interesting difference between weekly MRP-derived VI for Con-Reform vs larger sample

YouGov

@YouGov

4 months

Implied vote share from our latest MRP Labour: 39% Conservative: 22% Reform UK: 15% Lib Dem: 12% Green: 7% SNP: 3% Plaid Cymru: 1% Other: 2%

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

1 year

Thus, the next GE is more likely to be fought on arguments for devolution than independence. With Labour on track to become the largest party in Westminster, their stance on devolution might be the key to swaying Scottish voters. Full analysis here: 11/11

Scots Keen on Further Devolution, Sceptical about the Economic Benefits of Independence. SNP Retain...

Our latest Scottish voting intention indicates a narrowing lead for the SNP, which now stands at +3 points over Labour. Nonetheless, in the context of...

www.survation.com

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

4 months

@DamianSurvation

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

1 year

At the same time, Scots are on average in favour of further devolution on matters of: Cost of living policies 46% Energy security 42% Employment law 41% 9/11

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

5 months

@CWP_Weir This sounds exciting

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

1 year

Thus, it should be worrying for the SNP that LAB is making gains across all parties. Combine this with stable attitudes on independence (No - 53, Yes - 47), and you get an idea about the issues over which the next election could be decided in Scotland. 7/11

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

11 months

Very interesting paper - affective polarization on immigration increased in homogenous groups (of Lab and Con voters), but decreased significantly in mixed groups

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

4 months

@herculeanstable @BestForBritain The point is to understand how national vote shares could translate into seats under a FPTP system. Here is how the method works:

What is MRP? | Survation

Multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) is a way of producing estimates of opinion and attitudes for small defined geographic areas. It works by combining information from...

www.survation.com

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

1 year

If anyone’s wondering why Labour are being careful with their Brexit narrative

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

1 year

Which subgroups are most likely to be affected by the new voter ID laws in the local elections tomorrow? @JackSurvation and I break it down:

Survation.

@Survation

1 year

NEW: Local Elections Voting Intention: LAB 33 (+6) CON 23 (-8) LD 18 (+1) GRN 11 (+2) IND/OTH 14 (-2) F/w 24 - 28 April. Changes vs. 2019 Local Elections results. In this article, @VasilSurvation & @JackSurvation break down the findings.

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

4 months

@LukeTryl Glad to see credible intervals and win probabilities in the tables! 👏

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

5 months

@PoliSciJack @BESResearch It’s been in *most* published VIs since early last year but much more regular this year

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

4 months

@ABLPoli Apologies, it’s been a long month!

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

8 months

We carried out a similar exercise last year (on new boundaries) and found very similar results. (this is for the new seat - Wellingborough and Rushden)

Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)

@fintan_smith

8 months

@LabourTogether @DatapraxisEU Charted here:

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

4 months

This would be a 43.5% swing 👇

Survation.

@Survation

4 months

NEW Constituency Poll in Clacton REF 42% (new) CON 27% (-45) LAB 24% (+8) GRE 5% (+2) LD 2% (-4) OTH 1% (-2) F/w 11th - 13th June. Changes vs. Notional 2019 result

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

4 months

@robjeffecology @Survation Hi Rob, we use a full ballot prompt method and don’t make adjustments (reallocation, modelling, etc) for undecided. Voting intention is the first non-demographic question in every survey.

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

1 year

Also, a couple more nonsensical observations:

Damian Lyons Lowe

@DamianSurvation

1 year

From the Redfield London poll. A person in London is apparently *less* likely to be a Westminster Conservative voter if they are in their 50's and 60's than if they are in their 20's and 30's. For Labour voters, there's no age effect at all on their vote from 25-65. 🤷‍♂️

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

1 year

@ProfNJAllen @RoyalHolloway @rhulpirp

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

5 months

@ramshackle78 It's a relatively even increase around 5-8% across all age groups (in line with national increase), though bear in mind the higher margins on cross breaks. Mostly indicates a "convention bounce" as @benwansell points out:

Ben Ansell

@benwansell

5 months

@Samfr Is nobody in the country aware of ‘convention bounces’? A party gets a lot of news when something big happens. Like Farage standing as MP. And that brings a lot of attention and a surge in intended vote. Typically it subsides. Not always. But typically.

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

4 months

@ramshackle78 @Survation One early next week and maybe one or two after that

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

7 months

@livvyjohn @scotfax @Survation @BestForBritain Hi John, those are available to download from our archive:

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

4 months

@Callum_L_Hunter @JamesDAustin @nbutton93 It'd be interesting to see how the MLM differs from a squeeze question on the same group respondents?

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

4 months

@p_surridge No surprises from us then!

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

4 months

@AdrianBeavis1 Not very long! We will have exciting stuff coming out regularly over the next 10 days!

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

7 months

@livvyjohn @scotfax @Survation @BestForBritain 13 of those are with margin < 5%, and in the probabilities tab, only 20 SNP wins are with chances higher than 3 in 4, so the difference between 40 and 20-25 seats is very small. 2014 "No" voters being largely split between Lab/Con contributes to that

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

4 months

@p_surridge When is the blog coming out? 😀

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

4 months

@sundersays @TomHCalver @Survation Not very promising for them if the share of current Undecided voters who would *consider* voting Con is roughly the same as the share of Green voters… From the same poll:

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

4 months

@herculeanstable @BestForBritain All companies that produce MRP have a set number of minimum interviews per constituency and I’m assuming many would be oversampling specific seats like Clacton. Is this likely to pick up all local factors that a constituency poll would? No, but it’s the next best thing.

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

1 year

@ProfNJAllen @RoyalHolloway @rhulpirp The rhul orange seemed like a better choice!

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Vasil Lazarov

@VasilSurvation

4 months

@AdrianBeavis1 @MattRanson It’s very much in line with the one published yesterday morning. All changes are within MOE, main differences are that this is GB not UK and it has shorter/more recent fwk period. No plans to make implied shares from MRP the main VI 😀

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