Owen Winter @OwenWntr Twitter profile | Pikagi

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Owen Winter

@OwenWntr

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Political data scientist @TheEconomist (personal views) he/him

London, England

https://t.co/g22bj2OT3V

Joined January 2015

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@OwenWntr

Owen Winter

4 months

I’m delighted to have joined @TheEconomist as a Political Data Scientist this week. I’ll be working on polls, forecasts and everything political data. Especially pleased to have joined in the year that 4billion people worldwide will go to vote - lots of exciting things coming up!

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@OwenWntr

Owen Winter

1 year

YouGov asked people to rate Sunak and former PMs (% good minus % bad) Blair -4 Major -4 Brown -8 Sunak -25 Cameron -25 Johnson -36 May -37 Truss -76 Surprising how high Blair is and how low Cameron and May are

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Owen Winter

23 days

Hartlepool voting intention LAB: 58% (+20) REF: 23% (-3) CON: 10% (-19) LDEM: 6% (+2) GRN: 2% (+2) @wethinkpolling / @TheEconomist , 30 May - 9 June

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Owen Winter

1 month

What's going on in Birmingham, Bethnal Green, Bradford and Leicester? Labour is directing activists to some of its safest seats in the country, constituencies where Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi people make up >30% of the population:

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Owen Winter

1 month

Economist seat prediction model, today vs the day we launched (15th April) Lab: 389 (+17) Con: 185 (-13) SNP: 25 (-7) Lib Dem: 22 (+1) Plaid: 2 (-) Grn: 1 (-) Reform: 0 (-)

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Owen Winter

16 days

Gillingham & Rainham voting intention (+/- 5%, changes vs 2019 notional) LAB: 55% (+27) CON: 23% (-39) REF: 15% (+15) LDEM: 5% (=) GRN: 2% (=) @wethinkpolling / @TheEconomist , 5th-16th June. N=376

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Owen Winter

10 months

The census releases data on car availability by household deprivation:

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@NeilDotObrien

Neil O'Brien

10 months

The "poor people don't drive" narrative is such a London bubble thing. The pink areas on this map are where people use public transport more than driving.

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Owen Winter

2 years

Been there, done that

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Owen Winter

10 months

With today's polls included, the Conservatives are at their lowest average voting intention since Liz Truss was Prime Minister Lab - 44% Con - 24% Lib Dem - 11% Greens - 7% Reform - 6%

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Owen Winter

3 months

Very pleased to see our swing model published today. If an election were held tomorrow, our median estimate of the result would be: Lab - 372 Con - 198 SNP - 32 Lib Dem - 21 Plaid - 2 Green - 1

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Owen Winter

8 months

Pretty striking relationship between percentage Muslim in a constituency and its Labour MP's likelihood of voting for the SNP amendment

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Owen Winter

1 month

Conservatives have fewer candidates confirmed by @democlub than Labour, Lib Dems, Reform and the Greens:

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Owen Winter

17 days

Interesting some polling data I'm looking at has Lib Dem retention from 2019 at 78% in seats where they came 1st or 2nd, and 44% where they didn't

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Owen Winter

2 years

End of 2022 poll update! Labour has the biggest lead of any opposition party at this point in the Parliament since 1995

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Owen Winter

9 months

Looks like the Conservative mini-bounce has stalled in post-conference polling

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@BritainElects

Britain Elects

9 months

Westminster voting intention: LAB: 47% (+4) CON: 27% (-1) LDEM: 10% (-2) via @DeltapollUK , 13 - 16 Oct

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Owen Winter

9 months

Historically, we're moving into the part of the Parliament when the polls begin to move in the Government's favour. Labour still outperforming the "winning opposition" average:

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Owen Winter

1 month

We’ve spent two years talking about how uniform swing doesn’t work when one party is 20pts ahead… not enough time worrying about how it might break the MRPs

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Owen Winter

1 month

can you blame him?

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@PolitlcsUK

Politics UK

1 month

🚨 NEW: Tory minister Steve Baker has been accused of "giving up" after jetting off to Greece instead of campaigning in his constituency [ @daveburke12 ]

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Owen Winter

4 months

Green Party Co-leaders less well known than a made up name. Surprising and kind of impressive

@keiranpedley

Keiran Pedley

4 months

New @IpsosUK polling explores public attitudes to Lee Anderson's defection to Reform UK. 1. First things first. He's not that well known. Just three in ten familiar. More than his new boss mind - and it does rise to 40% amongst 2019 Cons.

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Owen Winter

1 year

Had a little look at differences in British and American public opinion. By far the biggest difference is belief in God (81% in US, 48% in GB) Followed by: - Private/public ownership - Abortion - Death penalty

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Owen Winter

1 year

Scottish Westminster voting intention (pre-resignation): SNP: 38% (-7% since 2019) Labour: 35% (+17%) Conservative: 16% (-9%) Lib Dem: 5% (-4%) Green: 3% (+2%) YouGov/Scottish Opinion Monitor, 10th-15th February

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Scoop Monitor Feb 23 – Release of topline figures

The figures from our February 2023 Scottish Opinion Monitor (Scoop) poll can be found in the tables below.Fieldwork was conducted by YouGov, who contacted a representative sample of 1,239 voting-age...

scottishelections.ac.uk

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Owen Winter

6 months

Labour has a ~17% lead now, compared to ~6% at the same point in 1992

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@GeorgeWParker

George Parker

6 months

Tory MPs returning to Westminster today wistfully talking about Sunak fighting a ‘92 election: green shoots, risky Labour. Not so much “change” as “keep a-hold of Nurse”, as one minister put it. Analysis featuring Hezza and ⁦ @nickmacpherson2 ⁩

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Owen Winter

1 year

We're practically at the inflection point where the 1987-1992 Parliament went from big Labour leads to being very close. This time the Conservatives don't have an unpopular Prime Minister they can depose:

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@keiranpedley

Keiran Pedley

1 year

On parallels to 1992 here is a selection of Ipsos polls from 1991. No 15 pt Labour leads there. Couple of Tory ones in fact.

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Owen Winter

16 days

Data increasing looking like a pincer of Reform, Labour and Lib Dems taking Con19 voters with the geographic distribution that does maximum damage. Will have more on this next week hopefully! 🦕

@OwenWntr

Owen Winter

17 days

Interesting some polling data I'm looking at has Lib Dem retention from 2019 at 78% in seats where they came 1st or 2nd, and 44% where they didn't

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Owen Winter

1 year

jeez I'd forgotten about the Supplementary Vote being abolished

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Owen Winter

3 months

One reason the Conservatives might do worse than uniform swing implies: tactical voting. In BES data, I found that the number of voters considering more than one progressive party is at its highest in recent history

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Owen Winter

2 months

The tone of many responses to this speech feel really off. Fine to poke fun at council candidates speaking about foreign policy, but the insinuations that this is extremism are islamophobic

@hearnimator

Alex Hearn

2 months

Residents: can you fix the potholes in the roads? The Green Party:

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Owen Winter

2 months

the Brexit Party got 25% in West Virginia in 2019

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@CA_Commissioner

Commissioner Vick 🌊🍸🃏

@CA_Commissioner

2 months

Demographically, the UK is pretty similar to Iowa, so you’re kidding if you think it would be a reliably blue state.

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Owen Winter

4 months

Very cool new interactive pretty surprised to how Tory my demogs are!

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Owen Winter

8 months

Very pleased to see our US Presidential MRP in @politico today - one year out: Trump 45% (298 EC votes) Biden 46% (240) RFK 8% West 1% Libertarian 1% Green 1% Head to head: Trump 48% (292) Biden 49% (246) @StackStrat 12th Oct - 3rd Nov, N=15,205

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Owen Winter

11 months

Most Londoners support ULEZ, but they disproportionately live in Labour seats which won't be competitive at the next election:

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Owen Winter

10 days

Funny looking back a month to "the Conservatives need to make gains every week" and it having been so much worse than that: Lab 41% (-4) Con 20% (-4) Ref 16% (+5) Lib Dem 11% (+2) Green 6% (-)

@OwenWntr

Owen Winter

1 month

Interesting dynamic this election that every day the government doesn't make gains increases the likelihood of Labour victory. Average of 5 polls since the election was called, with change from pre-announcement: Lab: 44 (-) Con: 23 (-) Ref: 12 (+1) Lib Dem: 10 (-) Green: 6 (-1)

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Owen Winter

2 months

Dover voting area (Kent PCC) Lab 44% (+13) Con 41% (-16) LD 16% (+3)

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Owen Winter

1 year

niche but the Greens are actually nightmarish from a modelling POV because they love winning loads of votes in places with none of their core demographics

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Owen Winter

7 months

These numbers are so small that I find it striking in the opposite direction. The U.K. has a higher % Chinese residents than Japan despite being 000s km further apart

@Noahpinion

Noah Smith 🐇🇺🇸🇺🇦

7 months

One of many stupid reasons Westerners think Japan is super homogeneous is that they go there and see a bunch of Asian people, not realizing that a lot of the people they're seeing aren't actually Japanese.

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Owen Winter

2 months

Great Yarmouth voting area (Norfolk PCC) Lab 41% (+15) Con 40% (-13) Grn 11% (+5) LD 8% (+3) No Other this time (10%)

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Owen Winter

7 months

being painted into the house by our landlord’s mum is too absurd to even get angry about

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Owen Winter

8 months

Government ends the week on an average voting intention of 24%. The UK govt has had a VI of 24% or lower three times in the history of polling: - October 2022 - May/June 2019 - May/June 2009

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Owen Winter

1 year

Even if you account for Leicester and Slough having unique local factors, it looks as though wards with higher British Indian populations swung away from Labour and towards the Conservatives in the local elections

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Owen Winter

23 days

not sure being so obsessed with your own party's internal politics that you remind voters of its very unpopular former leader is a great approach

@kiranstacey

Kiran Stacey

23 days

Quite the line from Starmer on the Tories: They're building a sort of Jeremy Corbyn-style manifesto where anything you want can go in it, and none of it is costed... load everything into the wheelbarrow, don't provide the funding, and hope nobody notices the money isn't there.

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Owen Winter

1 month

@democlub One week til nominations close: Lab 627 (+20) Green (GPEW + Scottish Greens) - 573 (+9) Lib Dem - 530 (+16) Reform UK - 470 (+13) Conservative - 448 (+40) Workers Party - 173 (+4) SDP - 125 (+8) Independent - 99 (+16) SNP - 57 (+1) Plaid Cymru - 28 (+1)

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Owen Winter

2 months

Potential for ecological fallacy here. In polling data I’ve seen, non-Muslim voters in more Muslim areas have swung just as far (sometimes further) than Muslims from Lab->Green

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Owen Winter

1 month

Sending activists to these seats fits with Starmer's shifting tone on the war in Gaza. Labour are clearly worried about Muslim voters

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Owen Winter

1 year

Some more #gaydata . Overall, LGB+ women outnumber LGB+ men by around 12:10. In West Lancashire, this ratio is 17:10 while in Westminster and City of London it is 4:10.

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Owen Winter

1 year

Local election vote share in Johnny Mercer's Plymouth Moor View constituency: Lab 46% (+4) Con 29% (-12) Other 10% (+1) Green 9% (+5) Lib Dem 6% (+2) Changes with 2022

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Owen Winter

1 month

What do they have in common? All of them are over 30% Indian, Pakistani or Bangladeshi. As you go down the list, Labour are sending activists to many other areas with significant South Asian populations: Bolton, Ealing, Huddersfield, Luton, Oldham

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Owen Winter

1 year

@patricksturg There's no evidence trans rights advocates are disproportionately men or their opponents are disproportionately women... Male MSPs were more likely than female MSPs to vote against the GRR bill in Scotland, for example. Polling consistently shows men hold more transphobic views.

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Owen Winter

1 year

Very interesting paper published this week, showing how the adoption of PR in New Zealand has meant fewer centre-right governments and greater income redistribution since 1996 (from @Maciej76718052 and @pierzgal ) @Labour4PR @robfordmancs

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Owen Winter

2 months

not a fun take but I’m not sure election year local elections tell you anything about the fate of the government 2019: Con -1,330 (Con+48 MPs) 2017: Con +563 (-13) 2014: Con -236 (+24) 2009: Lab -291 (-91) 2004: Lab -464 (-48) 2000: Lab -574 (-6) 1996: Con -607 (-178)

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Owen Winter

2 years

The geography of subjective social class. People in Scotland, south Wales, parts of the north of England and London are significantly more likely to identify as working class, once you control for income and education. (inspired by @TomLath36874686 )

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Owen Winter

2 months

Stoke-on-Trent voting area (Staffordshire PCC) Lab 53% (+16) Con 36% (-16) LD 12% (+9) No Reform this time (2%)

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Owen Winter

1 year

🤪

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@SkyNews

Sky News

1 year

Keir Starmer will lose election campaign on day one over his trans rights position, Labour strategists warn

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Owen Winter

1 year

42.5% of England now live in a Labour majority council

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Owen Winter

11 months

Average Labour lead of 19%. There have only been four periods where the opposition has had such a large lead: 🔴 Oct 2022 - now 🔵 Jun - Sep 2008 🔴 Oct 1993 - Apr 1997 🔴 Mar - Apr 1990 🔵 Mar 1968 - Jun 1969

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@Savanta_UK

Savanta UK

11 months

🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention 📈19pt Labour lead - largest since Feb 🌹Lab 47 (+1) 🌳Con 28 (=) 🔶LD 10 (-1) ➡️Reform 4 (-1) 🌍Green 3 (=) 🎗️SNP 3 (=) ⬜️Other 5 (+1) 2,240 UK adults, 21-23 July (chg 14-16 July)

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Owen Winter

8 months

Labour currently leads by ~20%. Here's how that compares to opposition parties at this point before historic elections: * 1997: 25% * 1970: 18% * 2010: 17% * 1964: 11% * 1974: 6% 1987: 6% 1959: 5% 2015: 3% * 1979: 1% 2019: 0% * Went on to form a govt

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Owen Winter

1 month

But there are some seats suggesting serious weakness. Here are those with the largest notional Labour majorities: 1. Birmingham Ladywood (73%) 2. Bethnal Green & Stepney (63%) 3. Bradford West (61%) 4. Birmingham Perry Barr (48%) 5. Leicester South (46%) 6. Blackburn (3%)

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Owen Winter

1 month

The seats selected suggest more than one factor at play. Some have substantial Muslim populations, where Labour struggled in the 2024 local elections and where there are a number of Independent or Workers Party candidates standing on pro-Palestine platforms

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Owen Winter

6 months

Labour's current lead: 22% Lab 1997: 22% Con 2010: 15% Con 1970: 13% Lab 1964: 9% *Lab 1992: 6% Lab 1974: 5% *Lab 1987: 4% *Lab 2015: 3% *Lab 1959: 3% *went on to lose

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Owen Winter

2 months

Thurrock voting area (Essex PCC) Lab 51% (+18) Con 25% (-25) EDem 15% (+2) LD 8% (+4)

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Owen Winter

1 month

Biggest Conservative majorities that Labour is targeting: 1. Tamworth (43%) 2. Cannock Chase (43%) 3. Great Yarmouth (41%) 4. Warwickshire North & Bedworth (39%) 5. Redditch (39%) 6. Amber Valley (37%) 7. Leicestershire North West (37%) 8. Harlow (35%)

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Owen Winter

1 year

The interesting thing about Scotland's electoral geography is that once Labour gets this close to the SNP, there are dozens of seats in play

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Owen Winter

1 year

Lots of SNP politicians revealing their true colours. We did "it's discrimination to hold politicians to account on gay rights" discourse in 2013

@CMonaghanSNP

Carol Monaghan 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 🇺🇦

1 year

I am concerned about the ongoing targeting of @_KateForbes because of her faith. My statement:

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Owen Winter

17 days

40% of 2019 Lib Dems in seats they came 3rd or lower say they'll vote Labour (15% where they came 1st or 2nd)

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Owen Winter

7 months

Updated estimates of pollster house effects since 2019

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Owen Winter

2 years

If installing a (relatively) popular new Prime Minister hardly moves the polls, it's really hard to think of something that will

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Owen Winter

1 month

Our poll tracker as of 25th May: Lab 45 (+13 from 2019) Con 23 (-21) Ref 11 (+9) LD 9 (-3) Grn 6 (+3)

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Owen Winter

6 months

Means that Labour's lead is (perhaps fleetingly) larger than at the same point in 1997

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Owen Winter

2 years

Very interesting they have support for PR (54%) even higher than Lords reform (51%). Hoping Labour takes note

@MakeVotesMatter

Make Votes Matter

@MakeVotesMatter

2 years

Brilliant new poll from @RedfieldWilton shows yet more growing support for PR 📈 54% back changing the voting system while only 12% are opposed 💪 Join us to make sure we #MakeSeatsMatchVotes !

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Owen Winter

1 year

On this, there isn't a single constituency in Britain where more than a third of people think equality for gay people has gone too far (estimated using BES data+MRP)

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@OwenWntr

Owen Winter

1 year

In May 2022, 18% of 2019 SNP voters said that equality for gay people had gone too far, compared with 25% nationwide. Meanwhile, 37% said equality had not gone far enough:

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Owen Winter

2 years

live in a shed for £600 a month

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Owen Winter

1 month

@democlub Wow, since I posted this someone clearly updated the Green Party candidates: Labour - 573 (+15) Green (GPEW + Scottish Greens) - 551 (+147) Lib Dem - 483 (+12) Reform UK - 469 (+1) Conservative - 368 (+14) Workers Party - 162 (+6) SDP - 98 (-) SNP - 56 (-) Independent - 54 (-)

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Owen Winter

1 month

I had a look at where Labour is sending activists from its “how to help” webpage. I found 256 constituencies where activists are being directed - seats Labour thinks are in play. They include all but one seat in Scotland so from here I am referring to England and Wales only.

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Owen Winter

1 month

Every week the polls don’t move is a bad week for the Tories

@SpaJw

JWExTheSpa

1 month

Another absolute gem from the Times story.

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Owen Winter

6 months

Could Conservative "Don't Knows" be causing the next big polling error? Looking at @StackStrat data, the decision to weight a survey before vs after excluding "Don't Knows" is the difference between a 16% and 21% Labour lead:

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Owen Winter

13 days

Not sure we've properly adjusted to the possibility of a result like this. Extremely close to a total Tory collapse (talking <40 seats) or a Reform breakthrough in former Tory safe seats. Kinda surprised none of the MRPs so far have shown it...

@RedfieldWilton

Redfield & Wilton Strategies

@RedfieldWilton

14 days

Labour leads Reform (!!) by 23%. Highest Reform %. Tied-lowest Conservative %. 🇬🇧 Westminster VI (19-20 June): Labour 42% (-1) Reform 19% (+1) Conservative 18% (–) Liberal Democrat 11% (-1) Green 5% (–) SNP 3% (–) Other 1% (–) Changes +/- 14-17 June

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Owen Winter

3 months

For balance, most likely Lib Dem gains: 1. Cheltenham 2. Guildford 3. Esher and Walton 4. St Ives 5. Winchester 6. Wimbledon 7. South Cambridgeshire 8. Lewes 9. Carshalton and Wallington 10. Cheadle

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@OwenWntr

Owen Winter

3 months

Most likely Reform seats in our model: 1. Doncaster North 2. Barnsley North 3. Rawmarsh and Conisbrough 4. Rotherham 5. Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley (but bare in mind this is a swing from the Brexit Party - Reform's coalition appears quite different)

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Owen Winter

1 year

Focus groups are important for understanding voters' feelings + reasoning around issues, but presenting them like this (i.e. presenting qual as if it is quant) is actively unhelpful imo. We have representative surveys to ask whether voters prefer Sunak or Starmer

@MattChorley

Matt Chorley

1 year

RED BOX PODCAST 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Focus Group 2019🟡SNP voters, now undecided give their verdict on Sturgeon, Yousaf, Sarwar & Ross. @jamesjohnson252 is in the chair. 🎧LISTEN And if forced to pick, who do they prefer Sunak or Starmer?👇

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Owen Winter

1 month

Sunak wishing that polls which do and don’t model “don’t know” would converge

@OpiniumResearch

Opinium

@OpiniumResearch

1 month

🚨 Our latest polling with @ObserverUK The Labour lead is now 20 points. • Labour 45% (+4) • Conservatives 25% (-2) • Lib Dems 8% (-2) • SNP 3% (+1) • Greens 6% (-1) • Reform 11% (+1) Fieldwork: 29 - 31 May. Changes from 23 - 24 May.

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Owen Winter

1 month

On the whole, the seats chosen are very bullish. They include 174 Conservative seats from 2019 (notional). That is every Conservative seat with a majority under 28% and over half of seats with a majority up to 32%:

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Owen Winter

2 months

Lab 49% (+18) Con 23% (-7) Green 20% (-9) LD 7% (+2) No Ind candidate (5%) this time

@FeliceSouthwell

Felice Southwell

@FeliceSouthwell

2 months

Brighton and Hove's vote for PCC was: Paul Richards (Labour) - 22,053 votes Katy Bourne (Conservative) - 10,308 votes Jonathon Kent (Green) - 9,042 votes Jamie Bennet (Liberal Democrats) - 3,198 votes This is not the full results for Sussex PCC

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@OwenWntr

Owen Winter

1 month

14 pollsters, most recent poll vs last pre-election announcement: Lab: 45% (+1) Con: 24% (=) Ref: 11% (=) Lib Dem: 9% (=) Green: 6% (=) it's.... not narrowing

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Owen Winter

2 months

(preemptive polling average creation)

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Owen Winter

1 month

But they also include seats with significant Hindu and Sikh British Indian populations. These groups have been trending away from Labour and were a particular weak point in the 2023 and 2022 locals, when Cons made big gains in Leicester, Slough and Harrow

@OwenWntr

Owen Winter

1 year

Even if you account for Leicester and Slough having unique local factors, it looks as though wards with higher British Indian populations swung away from Labour and towards the Conservatives in the local elections

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Owen Winter

14 days

Feeling sad for the survey respondents in Chorley who clicked "Other" and wrote in Labour/Reform

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Owen Winter

5 months

Big problem for Muslims dissatisfied with Labour that the electoral system+geography give them strikingly little leverage. Few Muslims will go Con, Greens don't pose a challenge in any highly Muslim seats (Bristol C. is 6%). Only 1 of Lab's top target seats in E+W is >20% Muslim

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@OwenWntr

Owen Winter

5 months

Better reported here: Lab 60% (-26%) Green 14% Lib Dem 9% Con 8% (-2%)

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Owen Winter

6 months

We'll find out soon whether that YouGov poll is an outlier, but with it included in the average you get: * Lowest Con VI since October 2022 * Biggest Labour lead since February 2023 * Highest Reform share ever * Lowest Lib Dem since March 2023 * Reform in 3rd place for 1st time

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Owen Winter

1 year

highest support at the individual level: Remain, young, graduates, students top constituencies: Isle of Wight, Bury St Edmunds, North Herefordshire 🤪

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Owen Winter

23 days

With reporting by @JoelBudd1

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Owen Winter

2 months

I think this is evidence that Reform has *some* real support but given they stood in so few wards, you'd expect the ones they did stand have much higher support than nationwide (i.e. closer to 20% than 10%). Not so true for the other four, which stood in most wards

@ElectionMapsUK

Election Maps UK

@ElectionMapsUK

2 months

Aggregate Result in the 197 Wards where all 5 Major Parties Stood: 🌹 LAB: 35.7% 🌳 CON: 22.9% 🔶 LDM: 13.8% 🌍 GRN: 10.8% ➡️ RFM: 9.6% Looks like the Reform polling numbers are real, even if they can't convert it into seats.

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Owen Winter

18 days

Survation has them three points apart

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@jovanforclacton

Jovan Owusu-Nepaul

@jovanforclacton

19 days

Fancy seeing you here… 👀 #VoteLabour #Change

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Owen Winter

2 months

Con +2, Lab +18 in Solihull Con -1, Lab +12 in Wolverhampton Looks like a big swing in the West Mids PCC election

@AlexanderJBrock

Alexander Brock

@AlexanderJBrock

2 months

First results of the day are through and they're for the West Midlands PCC 🚨 In Solihull, there were 33,159 votes for the Conservative's Tom Byrne and 21,184 for Labour's Simon Foster Meanwhile in Wolverhampton, Foster got 31,972 votes while Byrne received 20,863

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Owen Winter

3 months

Every week since Sunak became PM it’s felt like The Narrowing is finally about to happen, then you check a polling average and they’re a point lower than the week before

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Owen Winter

6 months

Since around March, Labour's lead has been bigger than any opposition which has gone on to lose. So a Conservative win would be a historic turnaround. But... stranger things have happened:

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Owen Winter

1 month

Labour are clearly taking the threat seriously: Thanks to @mattholehouse for suggesting I check it out!

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The seats where Labour is concentrating its campaign firepower

Our analysis shows that activists are not just being dispatched to Tory targets

www.economist.com

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Owen Winter

22 days

Which comes closer to your view? We should change the voting system: 53% (+2) We should keep it as it is: 40% (-4) via British Social Attitudes:

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Owen Winter

1 year

For almost 300 days in a row, Labour has had a larger average polling lead over the Conservatives than any point since 2002

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Owen Winter

1 year

great stuff

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Owen Winter

1 year

Welsh language rates from Census 2021

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Owen Winter

4 months

Fascinating. Biggest net losers of graduates in England (i.e. "brain drain"): 1. Richmond (Yorks) 2. Sandown 3. Boston 4. Skegness 5. Liskeard 6. Sleaford 7. Heathfield 8. Spalding 9. Hexham 10. Driffield

@ONS

Office for National Statistics (ONS)

4 months

Explore our interactive tool to discover how many people with advanced and higher education qualifications stayed in or returned to the towns they grew up in 📘

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Owen Winter

1 year

Striking polling for @MakeVotesMatter : How well do you feel the political system is working for the people of the UK? Very badly - 24% Somewhat badly - 25% Neither well nor badly - 25% Somewhat well - 16% Very well - 4%

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