Paula Surridge @p_surridge Twitter profile

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

2 years

Mum had a fall last night. 9 hours for an ambulance, 9 hours on a cold tiled bathroom floor with a broken hip. 1/

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

5 years

Thought these front pages from the start and end of the last campaign worth sharing as tomorrows papers start coming in.

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

4 years

A 'staycation' is time off *at home* with possibly some daytrips and maybe camping in the garden. A holiday in the UK is a holiday, lots of people do that as their summer holiday every year.

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

2 years

I suspect the Conservatives are quickly going to learn you cant tackle an economic crisis with a 'culture war' response.

Adam Bienkov

@AdamBienkov

2 years

Asked whether he supports a windfall tax, Boris Johnson responds by accusing Keir Starmer of not being able to define what a woman is #PMQs

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

2 years

For the patient it isn't a terrible thing, it is one to one care in a quiet place, nicer than A & E but for the next person lying for 9 hours on a cold floor it is a devastating wait and they may not make it

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

4 months

This is extraordinary (again!). In @yougov latest Conservatives are in 5th place with the under 50's. Behind Labour, LibDems, Greens and Reform UK.

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

5 years

A taster from new analysis for tomorrow. Labour 2017 voters unlikely to vote Conservative regardless of their Brexit identity. Those Labour leavers are unlikely to be Conservative converts.

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

2 years

So happy to have been promoted to Professor of Political Sociology (from 1st August). Academia hasn't always been a comfortable home for me, as a first gen student I haven't always understood the rules of the game but despite its reputation twitter helped me find the good bits.

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

3 months

At this stage, I can imagine hearing the exit poll at 10pm on 4th July saying Conservatives on anything from 35 to 180 seats and not feeling surprised. It is simultaneously the most and least predictable election.

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

3 months

What if, having lost the most vulnerable votes to the Greens and Independents already, the remaining voter coalition for Labour is actually quite strong?

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

2 years

But there are no beds so they are using ambulances as single patient wards. The failure is in hospital capacity and it's a shocking waste of such a precious resource/4

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

3 years

Many people are very tired and worked under extreme pressure of one kind or another the last 2 years. Strongly recommend not using how hard people in No 10 were working as an excuse.

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

4 months

You're trying to win back voters heading to Reform UK, many of whom are fiercely defensive of the role of the UK in WW2, and you leave the world wide remembrance event for D Day early. Are you trying to test the Conservative vote floor?

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

3 years

A much nicer version of my chart from yesterday made by @Aron_Cheung Non-voting needs to be taken more seriously in conversations about class and politics. This is just one example. Especially keen to think about those who move from voting to non-voting between elections.

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

2 years

Eventually taken by ambulance at 4am. Had to stay with my seriously ill step father. Get to go and find Mum at 10am and she's still in the ambulance, initially furious BUT 2/

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

2 years

Not a failure of A and E or the ambulance service she'd been assessed pretty quickly. /3

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

5 years

Something really important to add to this narrative. Among 18-24's without degrees turnout is really really low and they are much less likely to be in polling panels. Don't assume as that group age it stays pro-Labour even if none of those who voted Labour now change.

Douglas Mackinnon

@drmuig

5 years

Voting by age. Staggering.

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

4 years

@lewis_goodall In this scenario local/EU elections could play the role of mock exams.

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

5 years

Some hints in latest @OpiniumResearch polling that the 2017 Conservative remainers are moving towards the LibDems (they'd been quite stickily Conservative until recently). Including don't knows 42% would vote Con and 33% LD (at start of Sept that was 51 and 21 respectively).

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

3 months

Your (larger) majority is fragile, ours was a realignment to keep us in power for a decade....

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

3 years

I know everyone is excited about the Labour leads but worth noting in the latest @yougov 1 in 4 2019 Conservatives are 'don't knows' These polling leads are not (yet) on solid ground.

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

4 months

I think at this stage Starmer could reasonably argue that if interviews and debates are only going to be those who could realistically form the next government then only he should be invited.

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

3 years

I'd really rather protect Winter term schooling than Christmas.

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

3 years

Removing mandatory masks in shops, hospitality and transport is just asking those working there (and their families) to taken on the burden of risk (again).

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

3 years

Never quite know which bit of the coverage is going to tip me over the edge, today it is this 😢

Catalin Tenita, MP REPER🇷🇴

@catalintenita

3 years

The toy bridge. Romanian border police and citizens have turned the pedestrian bridge linking #Ukraine and Romania at Sighetu Marmației into a toy bridge. Each child who comes from Ukraine can take a toy from there, to enter the country with a nice thought. #standwithukraine

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

3 years

😡 Absolutely furious at anti-vax campaigners targetting kids as they left school today, just far enough away so it is difficult for school to intervene. 😡

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

2 years

@richardosman Do you have enough clout yet to insist the publishing world ditch the time delay between hard back and paper back. It is just not fair on people with smaller hands who like to read in the bath 🛀

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

2 years

Pretty sure blackouts can't distinguish between a PS5 and fridge with medicine in.

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

4 months

Feeling a bit irritated at all the talk of the Conservative coalition fragmenting as if it wasn't already quite clear this could happen after the 2019 election. So here are a few places where I said precisely that (with apologies for shameless self-promotion) /1

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

4 years

Perhaps he’s changed his mind and is going to call an election instead

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

3 years

People are angry and upset because of the losses and sacrifices they suffered while those in charge partied. Telling them their loss and sacrifice wasn't necessary doesn't strike me as a good way out of the mess.

BBC Politics

@BBCPolitics

3 years

Jacob Rees-Mogg says lockdown rules may have been too tough at the time the 20 May 2020 Downing Street party took place

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

4 months

At the risk of being a killjoy 51:49 on a sample of 1600 is a tie.

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

1 year

@lewis_goodall This is such a stupid exchange, but Starmer being 60 means that to still be doing Maths the policy would need to be Maths to 61.

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

2 years

@yougov polled on the Rwanda flights in April and again this week. The % of Con voters in support rose from 59% to 74% with a majority now strongly supporting. Suspect they've found the 'culture war' issue that works 1/2

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

4 years

Odds on everyone watching 'red wall' seats while long term realignments happen across Southern England as commuters move out of London post-crisis?

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

3 years

This is an incredible quote but also highlights why I think the 'Red Wall' narrative since the election is very damaging. There are nurses and supermarket workers in Surrey too and large inheritances being passed on in parts of Yorkshire. Make it about people not places.

John Rentoul

@JohnRentoul

3 years

For once “extraordinary” is right: anonymous cabinet minister in Sunday Telegraph

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

4 years

Absolutely thrilled to be able to announce that from today I am joining @ukandeu as Deputy Director, alongside @csbarnard24 and of course @anandmenon1

UK in a Changing Europe

@UKandEU

4 years

📣We're very excited to announce that @p_surridge and @csbarnard24 are the NEW Deputy Directors of UK in a Changing Europe. Looking forward to the all the knowledge and insight they'll be bringing to the team this year 🎉

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

3 years

I think this gives a very accurate picture of how important party conferences are to the electorate.

Britain Elects

@BritainElects

3 years

Westminster voting intention: CON: 39% (-) LAB: 31% (-) LDEM: 9% (+1) GRN: 9% (-) REFUK: 4% (-) via @YouGov , 05 - 06 Oct Chgs. w/ 29 Sep

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

4 months

In a field of polling numbers there isn't even the slightest sense of being able to cherry pick numbers for the Conservative narrative, there are no cherries.

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

4 years

And not a press conference or briefing in sight? The tea time briefings were a useful way of communicating the magnitude of the situation at least.

Michael Cowan

@mrmikecowan

4 years

#Coronavirus cases in last 24 hours: 🇬🇧 UK - 53,135 *more than all the below combined* 🇫🇷 FRANCE - 8,816 🇩🇪 GERMANY - 10,976 🇮🇹 ITALY - 8,937 🇳🇱 NETHERLANDS - 9,108 🇵🇱 POLAND - 3,211 🇵🇹 PORTUGAL - 1,577 🇮🇪 IRELAND - 735

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

4 months

@anandMenon1 Should travel standard class, wouldn't be enough space to get laptop out, much more secure.

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

5 years

Remember when we all said the Conservatives wouldn't run such a terrible campaign as in 2017...the one issue that has been uniting my facebook leave and remain camps this week is Grenfell and not blaming the firefighters.

Lewis Goodall

@lewis_goodall

5 years

Oh dear. Extraordinary interview on PM with Andrew Bridgen and @EvanHD just now. Bridgen was defending Jacob Rees Mogg’s Grenfell comments. Evan asked him if JRM had meant to say he would have left the flats that night, against official advice.

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

5 years

Why. Why. Why. If you've just lost voters to the archetypal posh public school PM is your diagnosis that you need Northern Grit 🤦The leader needs to convince people they have shared values not shared biographies.

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

1 year

We should perhaps be thinking more about negative partisanship than tactical voting as a concept for understanding this set of local results and quite likely the next GE. Tactical voting implies another party was preferred but maybe the other options are all equally preferred.

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

2 years

@ProfTimBale I'm not sure how the digger driver is resisting giving a little push just for the photo op.

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

4 months

Had a look back at @OpiniumResearch last three polls. Con - DK has been shrinking 1st May 23% 17th May 20% 31st 17% So more of the data are responses than reallocation now. /1

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

4 months

A lot of time thinking about elections today - and I think the best way to describe what the polls suggest is going to happen is if we put the 1997 popularity of the government/desire for change in a blender with the 2010 Lib Dem vote and the 2015 UKIP vote.

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

3 years

Would love to see some follow-up polling - 'How many people in your family/friend/work networks earn £81,932 or more' No one in my family has ever earned a salary close to that - it is inconceivable to them that it isn't enough to live comfortably.

Savanta UK

@Savanta_UK

3 years

🚨NEW Over half of UK adults say MPs' salaries are too high. Just one in ten say they are too low.💷 Too high 56% About right 30% Too low 9% 2,207 UK adults, 12-14 Nov

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

4 months

If my tired eyes are reading this right Starmer has better ratings than Johnson in 2019.

Deltapoll

@DeltapollUK

4 months

The gap between the two leaders has widened to fifty-nine points.

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

3 months

I'm not sure we've really grasped just how incredible it is that this is not agreed upon as a safe seat without any particular unusual circumstances in the seat itself.

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

4 months

Bravo Ed Davey 'sometimes the questions are a bit more complicated than yes or no'

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

3 months

One of first data sources for individual level data on vote - Don't suppose we'll hear too much about Reform having the lowest vote among 18-24 year olds. Behind everyone including the 'Others'

Lord Ashcroft

@LordAshcroft

3 months

From my poll of 16,677 people who voted in the general election: Equal margin among men and women Tories 3rd among 18-24s and 4th among 25-34s. Labour win all age groups except 65+, and all social groups Full data at

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

4 years

How do you make a 250 mile journey with a young child and not make at least one toilet stop?

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

2 years

The boo'ing most significant in its symbolism, not the usual suspects but a crowd who watched the Queen mourn alone then found out there had been parties in Downing Street running into the same day as the funeral.

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

3 years

Time for some data on class and perpections of the parties: If you think the problem is that Labour has become a party of the middle class - then you have to address why voters will vote for a party they perceive to be more middle class

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

3 months

This is an early half-formed thought to be followed up when we have the data to do so. But could it best be understood as Con - Reform as protest and Con - LibDem as long term shift which in electoral (seat) terms is more damaging

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

2 years

Can’t wait for the Truss vs Johnson leadership contest after Sunak is forced out post local elections.

Chaminda Jayanetti

@cjayanetti

2 years

a psychodrama of psychopaths

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

3 months

Why you should take this seriously, modelling is done by @chrishanretty whose previous modelling you are using every time you say some constituency or other voted Leave in 2016.

Survation.

@Survation

3 months

NEW MRP: Labour 99% Certain To Win More Seats Than in 1997 Labour on Course to Win 484 seats. The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are in a close race to form the official opposition. Probabilistic seat count: LAB 484 CON 64 LD 61 SNP 10 RFM 7 PC 3 GRN 3 34,558 interviews

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

5 years

Unofficial briefings and trailing measures 48h in advance just gives those with resources time to react and make things worse for others before the measures come in.

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

3 months

I think it's possible I might be actually bored of the campaign now. Polls are giving us less clarity not more, so much effort needed to extract signal from noise. Just want results now really.

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

5 years

Regular reminder that don't knows are a huge factor still. In today's @yougov poll still 17% undecided overall. This is *23%* among women. More women are undecided than currently intend to vote Labour. And you'll find them in all constituencies 😉

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

3 months

The opposite of narrowing.

Focaldata

@focaldataHQ

3 months

📊 NEW: Labour's lead climbs to campaign high. Labour: 43% (+1) Conservative: 21% (-3) Reform UK: 16% (+1) Liberal Democrats: 10% (+1) Green: 5% (-) Fieldwork conducted 14–17 June 2,604 respondents (GB)

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

4 years

Thanks to updated @besresearch data I can answer this one now. In 'Red Wall' seats (sample size ~500) Labour 2005 voters (in Red Wall seats) 2010: 12% Conservative 2015: 15% Conservative (10% UKIP) 2017: 24% Conservative 2019 34% Conservative

Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

4 years

What percentage of the 2005 Labour voters (still in the electorate in 2019) in 'red wall' seats (seats in North/Midlands and Wales that fell to Conservatives in 2019) voted Conservative in 2010?

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

3 years

If you focus only on the Con-Lab gap you miss important dynamics. Con vote is < 30% without a significant Reform UK vote to eat up to bring the total back up (it's the reverse of the Green party share not necessarily being bad news for Labour at a GE

Britain Elects

@BritainElects

3 years

Westminster voting intention: LAB: 38% (+1) CON: 28% (-5) LDEM: 13% (+3) GRN: 7% (+1) REFUK: 4% (-1) via @YouGov

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

3 years

The way this has been passing under the radar vs the saturation of coverage of Hartlepool reflects an asymmetry of the last five years. There have been 'cross-pressured' voters on both sides all along but only one set seem to have interested the media.

Paul Waugh MP

@paulwaugh

3 years

"They are shitting bricks" - a Tory local govt source on the mood in CCHQ over the Chesham and Amersham by-election today. Lib Dems quietly confident of scoring an upset in the safe seat.

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

4 months

Twitter timeline serving up a classic

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

3 years

@chrischirp Locally we were being told it was a new variant that didnt show on PCR tests (because of course that was the most likely explanation 🤦) but at the same time that PCR was the gold standard. Ridiculous mixed messaging and lack of early warning signals. So angry still.

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

9 months

Surely you'd be tempted to lay out some leather to see if it made shoes

BBC Wales News

@BBCWalesNews

9 months

Mouse tidies up photographer's shed every night

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

3 months

Worth noting that both of the seats declared so far with Reform in 2nd place had UKIP 2nd places in 2015 - vote shares up a little I think

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

5 years

So Labour position is to campaign to remain if the Tories are in power and to leave with their deal if they are in power....so for someone who wants to remain then the best outcome is a Tory minority government forced to hold a referendum on its deal? Or have I misunderstood?

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

3 months

@Samfr That's alot of potential 'error' on the figures being discussed as gospel for the last hour

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

4 months

The 'crossover' is all very exciting but statistically Con 18 Ref 17 is no different to Con 18 Ref 19. (I know you know and you're going to get over excited anyway but I feel obliged to try)

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

3 years

Fear the kids are getting a completely false impression of how it feels watching England

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

3 months

Could we not just have polling day this week instead?

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

4 months

We're all used to seeing this now and thinking no change, but that is actually worth stressing. Most people expected change by now. That we haven't seen it might seem dull but really masks lots of don't knows not doing what was expected.

Luke Tryl

@LukeTryl

4 months

🆕Our latest @moreincommon_ voting intention poll finds it’s all steady & Labour keep a 16 pt lead over the Conservatives 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🔴 LAB 41% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 11% (+1) 🟣 REF UK 14% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(- 1) Dates 14-16/6, N=2,369 Tables:

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

4 months

Don't think we are really grasping the current vote retention figures. I think all the polls I've checked this week have Con vote retention below 50% some quite far below. We think of the Labour vote as splintering in 2019 but they retained over 75% of the 2017 vote.

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

3 months

@PickardJE @gsoh31 She lost quite a few other people's seats as well to give her the full credit.

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

5 years

Surely here you most want to find your reverse twin so that you can effectively share a tin of Celebrations or Heroes. #Findmytwin

Richard Osman

@richardosman

5 years

Okay, another ‘Find My Twin’. This time ‘chocolate bars’. Put these in order from your favourite to least fav, and then # your order. Search your hashtag to find someone with your exact taste - your chocolate bar twin! Please RT! My order is #DBCAFE #FindMyTwin

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

3 years

Con MPs might also want to reflect on why Reform UK aren’t picking up votes - they’ve been out of step with public opinion on Covid measures for quite sometime stealing their clothes probably isn’t the answer

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

3 months

I don't know why he'd do this, it would irritate the rest of the UK, the women won it already. And what would it be for?

Politics UK

@PolitlcsUK

3 months

🚨 NEW: Keir Starmer has hinted at a bank holiday if England win the Euros

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

3 months

On a personal note I haven't enjoyed the last 6 weeks at all, trying to fathom why as I (obviously) love elections. Think two factors/1

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

4 months

Remember what I said about how bad it could get if people became enthusiastic about Starmer. Couple of polls out today suggest improving ratings for the Labour leader

Redfield & Wilton Strategies

@RedfieldWilton

4 months

Largest EVER lead for Starmer over Sunak. Highest % to pick Starmer. Lowest % to pick Sunak. Which of the following do Britons think would be the better PM for the UK? (14-17 June) Keir Starmer 48% (+1) Rishi Sunak 25% (-1) Changes +/- 7-10 June

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

2 years

Tiverton and Honiton and North Shropshire compared. Very similar constituencies (demographically) producing remarkably similar political outcomes.

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

3 years

Lots of 'progressive alliance' takes on my timeline today - but what Chesham surely shows is that to win the parties that make up that alliance have to also win some voters that voted Cons in 2019.

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

3 months

I do my family shop as well as a number of top up visits every week (teenage boys in the house they eat everything in sight) do I know the price of individual items, no and I'm lucky not to have to. This is a stupid way to cover a very serious issue for many people.

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

3 years

That display at PMQs (PM and the braying crowds) makes me never want to write another word about politics again - another time it is probably a good thing not many people watch PMQs live.

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

4 years

This is more dramatic than I expected. Impact of Covid on broad 'populist' themes such as trust in experts. Post-Covid more than 50% disagree that they would rather place their trust in ordinary people than experts

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

3 years

Fun fact from the second @yougov poll in two days. In the one conducted after PMQs more Conservative 2019 voters are switching to Labour than to Reform UK (Still very high don't knows as well)

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

4 years

'Red wall' takes which assume everyone living there switched from Labour to Conservatives in 2019 are becoming irritating. Could someone add a day between now and tomorrow for me to write about it please.

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

3 years

Looking at data across 1992 - 2019 today and for understanding Labour's current position need to really think about what happened between 2010 and 2015 as that is when the move down into the 'liberal-left' part of the chart really begins.

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

3 years

Fun fact at the 2005 General Election the Liberal Democrats won a higher share of the vote (30.4%) in Hartlepool than in Chesham and Amersham (25.1%). If you try to reduce the changes of the last 2 decades to the Con vs Lab battle you will struggle to understand them.

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

2 years

@Samfr Not like anything important happens in education in August 😬

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

3 months

Reform UK are almost certainly going to win many fewer seats than the Liberal Democrats on a higher share of the vote. Given what we've already seen of the US playbook it is a worry what that might sow in terms of resentment among some groups of voters.

60

17

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

4 months

Starmer isn't sealing the deal at 45 points ahead 🤷

Deltapoll

@DeltapollUK

4 months

Net approval for the Prime Minister @RishiSunak falls by two points, while net approval for @Keir_Starmer is up by four points.

6

106

271

3

13

120

Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

1 year

If only twitter were awash with people defending this 1 million children's 'aspiration'

Society Guardian

@SocietyGuardian

1 year

More than 1 million children in UK sleep on floor or share bed, study finds

10

79

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1

51

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

2 years

Opposition parties need a counter to this that works on emotional grounds, and not just legal grounds. 2/2

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

4 years

Interesting and important figure of the day. A majority of those under the age of 44 *without a degree* or higher level qualification did not vote in 2017. (Estimated from BES f2f data)

7

77

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

5 years

So we’re doing Labour lost because of Brexit again this morning. Labour was losing ‘leave’ areas before ‘leave’ existed. Look at how seats lost between 2010 and 2015 went on to vote in 2016.

Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

5 years

The remaking of the political map in 2019 wasn't (only) about Brexit exhibit 1: Data are E&W only. Seats categorised latest time Labour held them (so a loss in 2010 regained in 2017 and held on to in 2019 shows as a 2017 gain)

3

8

15

6

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

4 years

At the 2015 election the difference between Labour voters who went on to vote Leave and those that went on to vote Remain was very small on economics (likewise among Con voters) and very wide on social issues Leave voters were more left-wing on economics than remain voters.

5

45

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Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

5 months

@duncanrobinson @Psythor I was ahead of Google on this, a few months ago my 15 year old categorically told me no one cares about Andrew Tate anymore. I'll have to ask him what dubious internet stuff his friends are into now.

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