Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧 @MarwanData Twitter profile

Last Seen Profiles

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@MANDOOBfilm

@isimsizhayatla

@kotonechan1027

@CoolmoreAus

@stw_pdg

@Mitra_lawyer

@CoronaSurgeon

@BrowShawnt

Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

2 months

🚨GENERAL ELECTION 2024: FIRST MRP POLL🚨 We at @electcalculus and @findoutnow asked over 10k people for @DailyMailUK who they intended to vote for in the general election. Seats tally CON: 66 LAB: 476 LD: 59 Reform: 0 Green: 2 This accounts for tactical voting.

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

2 years

Ladies and gentlemen, our new 'health' secretary...

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

2 months

🚨MRP FORECAST🚨 Our recent poll exclusive with @DailyMailUK shows former prime minister @trussliz forecast to LOSE her seat, but by the slimmest of margins. After tactical voting, we predict that Truss will lose her South West Norfolk seat by 1.3% to @UKLabour . See below.

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

2 months

🚨MRP FORECAST🚨 Our recent poll shows that @GullisJonathan is set for a large-scale defeat in his constituency of Stoke-On-Trent North. We have this as a very likely Labour gain with them 20% ahead. #GE2024 #Labour #Conservative #

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

2 months

GP who heckled Sunak: "GPs cannot cope with half qualified staff" Person in crowd: "Most GPs spend more time on holiday than they do in a surgery, love"

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

1 month

🚨GENERAL ELECTION 2024: SECOND MRP POLL🚨 @electcalculus and @findoutnowUK asked over 19k people who they intended to vote for in the general election. Seats tally CON: 60 (-6) LAB: 450 (-26) LD: 71 (+12) Reform: 18 (+18) Green: 4 (+2) 14-24th June/changes with first MRP

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

1 month

The MP with the biggest personal mandate is Tim Farron for the Liberal Democrats who received 31,061 votes on 62.7% of the vote. This is a stark contrast to 2019 where plenty of candidates were (under new boundaries) getting 30k plus votes quite often.

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

2 months

Looking at cabinet ministers and prominent Conservative party members who we project as losing their seats, the list includes: - James Cleverly (Home Sec) - Penny Mordaunt (Leader HoC) - Kemi Badenoch (Business/Trade Sec) - Jacob Rees-Mogg (ex Leader HoC)

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

4 months

We've done some analysis on where Conservative 2019 voters are going. A picture paints a thousand words, so here you are! #GE2024 #Conservatives #Labour

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

3 years

@EssexPR It seems to have single-handedly killed our liberties. Does that count?

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

2 months

If, as rumoured, some Tory MPs do defect to Reform before close of poll this Friday, then they may not have enough time to field a candidate. Would that be a first? The first time in history that the governing party failed to put up candidates in all GB seats? (Excl Speaker)

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

3 months

This is significant. The change in vote share from 2021 Mayoral Election is: CON 45% (+10) LAB 38% (-1) LIB 10% (+5) Green 7% (-2) OTH 0 (-12) 5.5% swing from LAB to CON. If repeated across Greater London, Sadiq Khan would lose to Susan Hall. London will be a nail biter.

Wandsworth Conservatives

@wandsworth

3 months

🚨 🌳 Wandsworth Conservatives have *GAINED* the #WestPutney by-election from Labour. Huge congratulations to Cllr Nick Austin! 🐾 Con 2839 Lab 2350 Lib 635 Green 438 Majority: 489

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

3 months

Ok... The full data has been released by @londonelects and I've done some digging. In areas the Tories won, the turnout is up 6.5k votes. In areas the Labour party won, the turnout is down ~42k votes. Only a small swing is required for Khan to lose.

Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

3 months

Blimey... Turnout figures are being released by . Very high turnout in outer London which polling data shows is much stronger for Susan Hall and has been more affected by ULEZ expansions. Tower Hamlets turnout dire - will Gaza also cost Labour London!?

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

3 years

@afneil Do you support this Mr Neil? I've had both my vaccines and am confident they work Other people's vaccination status doesn't bother me and is none of my business.

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

3 years

@PoliticsForAlI Behold: the Yorkshire variant!!!

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

2 months

3/n In Sunak's seat we project he will hold on, but by a whisker with a massively reduced majority of 3pct. CON: 44% LAB: 41% LD: 3% Reform: 8% Green: 4%

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

3 years

@afneil I find it bizarre that fully vaccinated people are worrying about other people possibly infecting them? Are these vaccinated people not confident that the vaccine works? Do they not trust the vaccine? Could it be that THEY are the TRUE anti-vaxxers!?

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

3 months

Blimey... Turnout figures are being released by . Very high turnout in outer London which polling data shows is much stronger for Susan Hall and has been more affected by ULEZ expansions. Tower Hamlets turnout dire - will Gaza also cost Labour London!?

Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

3 months

This is significant. The change in vote share from 2021 Mayoral Election is: CON 45% (+10) LAB 38% (-1) LIB 10% (+5) Green 7% (-2) OTH 0 (-12) 5.5% swing from LAB to CON. If repeated across Greater London, Sadiq Khan would lose to Susan Hall. London will be a nail biter.

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

2 years

What I will never understand is how the Blairs got so rich off the back of Tony being PM. There have been far more charismatic and talented PMs than Blair, but none have come close to achieving his wealth. How and why is this so?

Euan Blair buys £22 million west London townhouse

Euan Blair, 38, has not only surpassed his father Sir Tony's multi-million-pound fortune - thanks to his £700m business - but now he has a far grander house which costs some £22 million.

www.dailymail.co.uk

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

2 years

@AndyBurnhamGM Neither is people freezing to death in their homes this Winter. We need cheap energy and fast and fracking helps resolve this short term.

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

4 years

Only protoplasmic invertebrate jellies would extend a deadline at this late stage.

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

1 month

2/n We now project that the Liberal Democrats will be forming the official opposition, pushing the Conservatives into third place in terms of seat tally.

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

3 years

@ZubyMusic Doubly ironic as Sweden had the most liberal approach of all countries!

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

3 years

I somehow doubt that Piers Corbyn's new song is going to make number 1... What a laugh 🤣🤣🤣

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

2 months

4/n The highest vote shares received by each party are in the following seats. Note Bristol Central which is the Green party's only gain from Labour.

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

3 months

@BritainElects That's over a 40% swing. And Labour can't use the excuse that they had to deselect their candidate this time.

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

2 years

Congrats on 1 million followers @ZubyMusic ! Great to meet you in person.

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

2 months

That is presumptuous. As polls currently stand, Sunak's status as an MP after the election is in question. This is our current projection and we haven't yet applied our tactical voting algorithm to his seat. Our tactical voting methodology will be released later this week.

Politics UK

@PolitlcsUK

2 months

🚨 NEW: Rishi Sunak has committed to staying as an MP for years to come even if he loses the election

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

2 years

@BBCBreaking Ok, but are deaths up 30%? Stop with the fearmongering.

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

4 years

What a legend @SteveBakerHW is! A true stalwart of freedom.

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

2 months

Laughing afterwards by Sunak probably not the best optics.

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

2 months

I am about to tweet the results of our poll in some specific seats before and after we have applied tactical voting. Any seats you want in particular, Twitter (X)?

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

2 years

By far the most Truss-worthy candidate!

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

3 years

@RachelRileyRR Here is a clip of me saying it.

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

2 months

5/n We applied tactical voting on a seat by seat basis based on research we conducted and which parties came in the top 2 in the seat back in 2019. We found that tactical voting hurts Labour more than the Tories Here are our tactical transition matrices for GB.

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

2 months

As polls stand, our new projected seat tally is... CON: 76 LAB: 457 LD: 66 Reform: 3 Green: 2

Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

2 months

Our latest poll-of-polls has #Labour and the #Conservatives losing ground to #ReformUK and the #LibDems . Reform are 3pc up on last week, now only 2pc behind the Conservatives on vote share, but still expected to win far fewer seats. Full prediction here:

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

2 months

🚨SEATS WHERE TACTICAL VOTING CHANGES RESULT🚨 I have selected a few seats from our MRP where we forecast tactical voting (TV) will change the forecast. Take Cotswold South for example. Pre TV we have this as a Conservative HOLD. Post TV we have this as a Lib Dem GAIN.

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

2 years

We are now at the fortunate stage where we are supposed to be living with covid. If this is the case, why is the government splashing out £71k on a job whose role it is to be the Delivery Lead for Covid Passes (link below)? Seems ominous.

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

1 year

@BBCBreaking The further you look into the past, the further you can see into the future.

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

2 years

🚨DEATHS ARE UP IN ENGLAND AND WALES🚨 Compared to the 5 year average (which includes two winters of being in lockdown) deaths in England and Wales are up by about 10% on average. And before anyone says "population growth", birth rates are the lowest they've been in ages. Why?

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

2 months

🚨SEATS WHERE TACTICAL VOTING CHANGES RESULT🚨 Godalming and Ash - the constituency of Chancellor of the Exchequer, @jeremy_hunt . Pre Tactical voting: Con HOLD. Post Tactical voting: Lib Dem GAIN.

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

6 months

@PolitlcsUK Why can't he just say: "Because I'm rich enough to afford to go private and therefore don't rely on public services like the NHS". People would respect him more if he just told the truth and was more blunt.

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

4 years

@tomhfh And what is Boris doing about it? His biggest weapon is a majority of 80. Does he appear to have forgotten that? The only member of govt who has shown any backbone hitherto is Priti Patel. When will others follow suit and take action?

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

3 years

@RachelRileyRR I love it when I made you spell out 'hentai'.

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

2 months

6/n We also asked voters on their attitudes to feeling better off and if they feel like they are getting value for money from the government. Here are some tables summarising their responses.

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

1 month

3/n The Greens are now on course to win 4 seats: Bristol Central, Brighton Pavilion, North Herefordshire, and Waveney Valley.

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

2 years

This seems like a personal vendetta. 11 other Tory MPs abstained in the vote of no confidence in government, so why target Tobias Ellwood specifically?

Henry Zeffman

@hzeffman

2 years

NEW: Conservative MP Tobias Ellwood has been stripped of the whip by Boris Johnson for failing to support the government in last night’s confidence vote

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

2 months

🚨TACTICAL VOTING🚨 Weston-super-Mare Tactical voting here makes little difference to our projection. It narrowly closes the gap between the Conservatives and Labour, but Labour are still forecast to win by over 10pct. Forecast: Lab GAIN.

Carol Vorderman

@carolvorders

2 months

@MarwanData Yes please NEW Weston Super Mare (Tory MP John Penrose, HUSBAND OF DIDO HARDING) NEW North east Somerset and Hanham (Rees Mogg)

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

3 years

Checked into the @TheThreeColts with my friend Sam. @EssexPR

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

1 year

🚨🚨🚨 BREAKING NEWS 🚨🚨🚨 Tory MP Scott Benton announces he is openly prepared to break lobbying rules in exchange for 💸💸💸 (See clip below) All video credit to @thetimes .

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

2 years

Really need a new logo design, any recommendations for graphic artists let me know!

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

2 years

@KariLake Bring on the claims of voter fraud...

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

2 years

@elonmusk @MuskUniversity

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

4 years

@georgegalloway This one's for you:

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

2 years

@BritainElects Just a reminder of our electoral calculus prediction...

Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

2 years

It's by election day in #StretfordAndUrmston . We haven't conducted an official poll at @ElectCalculus , but based on the national picture we would expect a result to look something like this:

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

2 years

I see that people are complaining about this headline, but here's a thought. If banks withhold the money, it gets recorded as a profit and it pays a ~25% rate of tax. If the bank pays out in bonuses, then it pays a ~45% rate of tax, so the treasury gets more. What's the fuss?

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

2 years

The government has to make some tough decisions. It needs to cut spending if it is to balance the books, but priorities are needed. Of the items listed below, where should it cut expenditure first? Please RT for bigger sample

State Pension

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Other (comment below)

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

4 months

@r31nd33rN0zz That's because it is based on the net movement of voters from one election to the next. Our latest poll of over 10k voters (with weighting to account for demographics) does not show any movement from Labour to Reform.

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

3 years

@ZubyMusic He has killed Neil Young's musical career!

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

15 days

This has to be one of the most bizarre results of the election just gone. Little mvmt from 2019. Our polling in the constituency did show the Conservatives massively overperforming the national party. Does anyone know of any stories on the ground that might have caused this?

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

3 months

Manchester Longsight ward sees a 43% swing to the WPB. This ward is over 50% Muslim. WBP 46% (+46) LAB 43% (-40) Green 5% (+1) CON 3% (-5) LIB 2% (-3) @WorkersPartyGB

Ethan Davies

@EthanDaviesMEN

3 months

@Maisielawton13 LONGSIGHT RESULT LABOUR DEPUTY LEADER LOSES SEAT Lab 2259 Workers 2444

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

3 years

This shock by election victory for the LD makes me think the electorate could well be on a rebellious streak, with @georgegalloway becoming Batley and Spen's new MP.

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

2 years

If you lived in France, would you vote for Macron or Le Pen?

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

1 month

4/n Reform have made considerable gains since the emergence of Farage onto the political scene. He wins Clacton handsomely.

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

3 years

@EssexPR @TheThreeColts Man of your word!

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

2 months

This doesn't pass the sniff test. 1) Barnet is a borough, not a constituency 2) No reference to who conducted the fieldwork

DrCJackson

@drcjjackson

2 months

NEW: Westminster Voting Intention Barnet LAB: 37% RFM: 29% CON: 17% LDM: 7% GRN: 3% OTH: 2% Source: Local survey 960 people. 59 % of those asked had decided on their vote. A Vote For #Conservatives is a totally wasted vote as they can’t beat Labour! @Nigel_Farage

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

2 years

For anyone wondering what is going on within the Tory party, I think this recently televised comment by the Daily Telegraph’s political editor Christopher Hope sums it up pretty well - “The ringmaster (Boris) has left the circus tent and the lions are eating the acrobats”

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

1 year

If you're going to watch any video today then watch this. (Part 1)

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

1 month

Our final prediction on polling day. LAB: 453 CON: 78 LIB: 67 Reform: 7 Green: 3 SNP: 19 Couple of points to mention... - Reform are projected to get more votes than UKIP did in 2015 - Labour are on track for a landslide, but with a lower vote share than they got in 2017

Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

1 month

Election morning prediction: #Labour ’s lead over the #Conservatives narrows from 20pc to 17pc, but a huge Labour landslide still likely. The Conservatives now ahead of the #LibDems on seats and #ReformUK on votes. Full prediction here:

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

15 days

In all seats across GB, the Conservative vote share was down. Table of seats (in descending order) where the Conservatives retained most of their vote share. In Hendon, the Conservatives kept 81% of their vote share. In Ashfield, they only kept 20% of their vote share.

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

3 years

1/🚨🚨🚨| POLITICAL POLLING THREAD Electoral Calculus January Poll of Polls Westminster voting intention: LAB: 40% (+7) CON: 32% (-13) LDEM: 11% (-1) GRN: 6% (+3) REFUK: 3% (+1) NAT: 5% (-) Changes with 2019 General Election.

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

3 years

@FreeNorthNow I'm no socialist, but George Galloway is a socialist from a working class background. He also has an enviable track record of solidarity with oppressed people. He is the sort of left wing politician the left should harness if they are to appeal to socially conservative voters.

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

2 months

🚨TACTICAL VOTING RESULTS MEGATHREAD🚨 1/n I've tweeted some graphs of seats I think are interestingly affected by tactical voting in previous tweets. Here is the full table, containing all seats in England, Scotland and Wales.

Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

2 months

I am about to tweet the results of our poll in some specific seats before and after we have applied tactical voting. Any seats you want in particular, Twitter (X)?

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

4 months

@r31nd33rN0zz They might be ex-Labour voters, but they didn't vote Labour in 2019 (as our data shows). That's not to say not a single Labour 2019 voter isn't voting Reform next time round. It's just that it isn't a significant number.

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

1 year

🚨🚨🚨NEW POLL🚨🚨🚨 @ElectCalculus and @FindoutnowUK asked 2,000 people on several issues ranging from Net Zero to the death penalty. Our key findings: • 54% believe Net Zero is "unachievable" • 46% believe the death penalty should be reinstated ...

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

2 months

He rebutted the heckler by pointing to the fact he worked in a pharmacy and his dad was a GP.

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

25 days

The most 4 way marginal seat is Burnley. 12.2% separates 1st place from 4th place. LAB: 31.7% Lib Dem: 23.1% CON: 20.3% Reform: 19.5%

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

3 years

@RealCandaceO What's your view on QAnon? Sorry... I mean QAnonsense!

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

29 days

Number of lost deposits for each of the national major parties... Conservatives: 28 Labour: 1 (Westmorland and Lonsdale) Liberal Democrat: 231 Reform: 56 Green: 260

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

2 months

Enjoyable layout and nice visuals Putting these numbers into our seat predictor yields an even worse seat tally for the Conservatives than our MRP poll last week.

Redfield & Wilton Strategies

@RedfieldWilton

2 months

🇬🇧 MEGA POLL! 10K sample. Labour leads by 26%. Tied-lowest Conservative % with Sunak as PM. Westminster VI (31/5 - 2/6): Labour 46% (–) Conservative 20% (-3) Reform 14% (+1) Lib Dem 10% (+1) Green 5% (–) SNP 2% (-1) Other 2% (-1) Changes +/- 25-27/5

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

2 months

Here are our predictions by seat post tactical voting. Please note that there are some idiosyncratic results that have not yet been accounted for. We will resolve this once we know who is running in each seat next Friday (e.g. B'ham Ladywood and Islington North)

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

3 years

@EssexPR @bbc5live @StephenNolan Will you be at the three colts tomorrow Adam? I am going to make my way down there mid afternoon with a couple of friends to show support for you 🙂🍻

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

5 years

@DanielJHannan @Conservatives This isn't personal Daniel. You have been an excellent MEP, but in order for the government to get a grip on the situation, we need to give them a bloody nose at the ballot box. Otherwise they won't listen!

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

3 months

There was also a council by election in Kensington and Cheslea's Norland ward. The change in vote share from 2021 Mayoral Election is: CON 51% (+5) LAB 29% (+1) LIB 13% (+9) Green 7% (-5) OTH 0% (-10) Not as large a swing as Wandsworth, but still a swing against Khan.

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

2 years

@BBCBreaking Keep it up. We can't allow our old to freeze to death.

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

29 days

Fun fact: Only 18 letters are required to be handed into the 1922 committee for a leadership election to be held.

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

3 years

This abuse at @tomhfh is unacceptable. Shouting abuse at journalists and calling them 'paedo protectors' is neither helpful nor factually based. Lockdown sceptics can and should do better. @GBNEWS @danwootton @LanceForman #GBNews #FreedomDay #BeKind

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

2 months

One final tweet before I ✈️ abroad regarding our recent MRP poll. And it's a map. On the left are the results in 2019. On the right are our latest predictions in each seat for the next GE in 2024. A landscape of red, with pockets of blue and yellow. #GE2024 #MRP

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

2 years

@OzKaterji His twitter handle, in case you want to give him a follow: @SviatoslavUA

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

2 years

Looking for graphic designers for NFTs. Artists/graphics people please get in touch. Looking to get this done in the next couple of months for a new crypto Youtube channel. Please follow me for engagement.

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

3 years

@EssexPR Yes, this is sadly the scene I drove past today with my mum. Once owned by Michael Parkinson, now it is nothing but a boarded up, derelict building. The real casualty of lockdowns.

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

1 year

@elonmusk For those of you who don't want to google what DMCA is... It's this

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

4 years

@danielmgmoylan @MayorofLondon Political opportunists often try to have their cake AND eat it!

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

1 month

Farage, Corbyn and Sunak got more votes in their seats than Keir Starmer did in his seat of Holborn and St Pancras. Yet, Starmer will win a majority double that of Johnson while getting fewer votes than Corbyn did in 2017. Labour played the First Past the Post game and aced it.

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

1 year

Nice one @ZubyMusic

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

2 years

@BNHWalker Hi Ben, Check out our new feature on the Electoral Calculus website. We go into more detail on the new boundaries and have done a lot of work on this.

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

2 months

That's another seat we are going to have to look into come close of nominations next Friday...

Lewis Goodall

@lewis_goodall

2 months

NEW: @faizashaheen tells me she's considering standing in Chingford as an independent. She says she wants to do it "for the right reasons."

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

1 month

🚨GENERAL ELECTION 2024: HOW WE PERFORMED IN OUR PREDICTION🚨 1/n The big picture was broadly correct – we predicted a very large Labour landslide, a big defeat for the Conservatives, and gains for the Lib Dems, Reform and the Greens.

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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

3 months

My last post of the day... I've taken the results of some council by elections in London that have been counted already. I benchmark this against the result of the 2021 London mayoral election in those same wards and look at the change. In short, there is a swing to CON.

Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

@MarwanData

3 months

Ok, here is what I've done. .. I take the results from 2021 and scale the results according to the change in turnout in each London Assembly constituency in yesterday's election. This assumes no change in voting behaviour at a constituency level. Swing to CON is 0.3%

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