WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com @wx_tiger Twitter profile | Pikagi

Pikagi

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

@wx_tiger

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Daily tropical newsletter: ; custom forecasts & modeling for ag commodity markets; met expert witness. Tweets by Ryan Truchelut.

Tallahassee, FL

https://t.co/kKfG1rZuB3

Joined January 2016

Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

2 months

When your forecast for elevated hurricane activity is delayed by elevated hurricane activity, it's not a great sign. WeatherTiger’s updated U.S. hurricane landfall risk outlook is out now. Our model projects ~75% odds of 2+ more U.S. hurricane landfalls in 2024. Short thread:

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

2 years

Hey #Tallahassee , tonight's incredible sunset is due to something called transverse banding from #Ian , underlit in purple & orange by the last rays of sunlight. Basically, they are ripples happening when the pond of the atmosphere is disturbed by the rock of a massive hurricane.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

2 years

Given the sightings of the spy balloon near Kansas City around noon CT, the most likely path it will take this weekend is across the Mississippi Delta and Deep South, reaching the Southeast coast by Sunday evening. Probably will be drifting across Florida or offshore by Monday.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

2 months

The latest seven-day Tropical Weather Outlook from @NHC_Atlantic . #bluescreenoflife

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

4 years

There is absolutely no sign on infrared satellite imagery that Hurricane Laura is being negatively impacted by shear as it nears the southwest Louisiana coastline. Closed eyewall ringed with intense, deep convective bursts. Robust SW quad.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

8 days

It’s happening again. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, soon-to-be #Helene , may become yet another Florida Gulf Coast major hurricane landfall late this week. The expectation that #PTC9 /Helene will cross the Loop Current on Wednesday supports rapid intensification potential.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

2 years

NHC Best Track data files have Tropical Depression 10 strengthening into Tropical Storm Hermine as of 18z. That means Tropical Depression 9 will NOT be the second consecutive Hurricane Hermine in the Gulf. The next name on the list is Ian.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

3 months

#Invest95L in E. Atlantic has a good chance of developing over the next couple days. Lesser Antilles need to watch #95L carefully. Note while June/July ACE does not correlate with full season ACE, early "low-rider" activity in southern MDR is linked to busier seasonal outcomes.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

2 years

Police are once again asking Floridians not to fire their guns at the visitor spacecraft.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

1 year

@mattlanza The heat and the depth of the NE Gulf is truly mind-boggling. 2x TCHP versus Michael. @DrKimWood showed a few days ago that 31C waters go down to 40-50m depth. It's just insane.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

7 years

Only ~5% of TCs in #Irma 's location make US landfall, but steering pattern suggests need to monitor. Image by the #illustrious Dr. Bob Hart.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

3 months

With #HurricaneBeryl , 2024 is the 11th hurricane season in last 150 years in which a hurricane developed south of 20N, east of 80W prior to Aug 1. The other 10 seasons went on to average twice or more the normal number of U.S./Florida hurricane and major hurricane landfalls.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

2 years

Hurricane Season 2022, a spectacle of dizzying contrasts, is finally over today. The year will go into the books as “near-normal,” but that purported normalcy is the average of stretches of extreme boredom punctuated by moments of abject terror. A few highlights below. (1/9)

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

8 months

❄️❄️❄️Bespoke, artisanal blizzard conditions this morning at WeatherTiger World HQ ❄️❄️❄️ #Tallahassee #FLwx

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

2 years

#TropicalStormIan continues tracking along the right edge of 12z model guidance this afternoon, while the 18z GFS continues trending in direction of Euro/UKMET with a stronger eastern trough. Additional track adjustments east may be incoming in the next day. Heads up, Tampa Bay.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

2 years

Preseason forecasts for the 2022 #HurricaneSeason , including ours, favored above normal activity. A quiet August has shifted that outlook. Latest real-time projection is most likely outcomes in the 90-140 ACE, 13-15 named storms, 5-7 hurricanes, and 2-4 major hurricanes ranges.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

4 months

WeatherTiger's #HurricaneSeason2024 forecast is out now. The most likely outcome is overall tropical activity more than twice average, with minimal chances of a quiet season and over 90% chances of a hyperactive year amongst the top dozen since 1950. A short thread: ⤵️

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

7 years

Exclusive analysis: #HurricaneNate literally Bolted across the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

3 years

Today is the official start of #hurricaneseason2021 . This is what Atlantic tropical cyclone history since 1900 looks like:

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

5 years

@rms5539 Flight was diverted to aid in search and rescue operations for a boat that sank in Lorenzo's outer bands. Apparently boat crew are on a life raft and the P3 is trying to get a visual on them.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

6 months

Lead, follow, or get out of the way. The wisdom of Big Dog summarizes our predicament as hurricane season approaches. With Atlantic warmth leading & La Nina soon to follow, WeatherTiger is predicting a very active 2024. 👇Highlights below, full outlook linked at end of thread:

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

2 years

Super-ensemble mean plots from @burgwx show a third consecutive cycle of a westward shift with the track of #TropicalStormIan in the models. The 00z cycle will be key, as it will include new lower-level and upper-level observations of #Ian from @NOAA_HurrHunter and @53rdWRS .

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

7 days

In case you didn't hear your phones pop off with an Emergency Alert: Extreme, #Tallahassee , #Tampa , #StPetersburg , #Sarasota & much of the #Florida Big Bend/west coast are under a Hurricane Warning. #Helene is strengthening in the Caribbean. Worst conditions arrive Thursday.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

4 years

WeatherTiger World HQ had a close brush with a possible tornado today. Our team including junior interns sought shelter in interior room before the radar couplet passed overhead, and wind damage occurred a few hundred meters away. Thanks to @NWSTallahassee for timely warnings!

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

6 years

The similar development locations of Subtropical Storms Debby and #Ernesto are highly unusual for this time of year. Of the 300-plus tropical storms forming in August since 1900, only two systems other than Ernesto and Debby have developed north of 30⁰ N and east of 50⁰ W.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

1 month

Convection crippled by the dry air that keeps on blowin' Shear cuts waves open Keep bleeding, keep, keep bleeding ACE

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

1 year

The #1 rule WeatherTiger is not to pull the fire alarm unless there is a fire. #Idalia is a fire. I’m pulling the alarm. Variety of outcomes remain on the table, but Panhandle and and north/west-central #Florida are at risk of major #hurricane landfall Wednesday. Thread:

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

6 months

Hurricane season 2024 outlooks are calling for a hyperactive season. However, it's still too soon to confidently predict U.S. impacts. Our analytics show a >90% chance of a top tercile ACE season, but only a ~55% chance of top tercile season from a U.S. landfall perspective.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

7 years

Introducing the WeatherCub to snow this morning! About 10 minutes of large flakes and another half hour of lighter flurries to cap off a rare snowstorm for #Tallahassee . Our little Floridaman definitely did not understand what was happening. @NWSTallahassee

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

6 months

WeatherTiger’s March forecast for the 2024 season has a most likely outcome around 195 ACE, or ~190% of 1950-2023 mean. Below or near normal (<130 ACE): 10% Above normal (130-160 ACE): 15% Hyperactive (>160 ACE): 75%. 50% chances of 160-225 ACE, 20-24 TS, 9-12 H, & 4-7 MH.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

2 years

WeatherTiger's real-time model of #2022HurricaneSeason activity has been running each day for a few weeks. Since our initial seasonal outlook in late May, the forecast has risen by 10-15 ACE to ~175 as oceanic & atmospheric precursors to a busy season have become more prominent.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

2 years

Excited to share a new paper in @NatureComms that I co-authored with @philklotzbach , @ericastaehling , @DrKimWood , @carl_schreck , @EricBlake12 and Dan Halperin. In it, we investigate whether the start of hurricane season is shifting earlier and why those changes may be occurring.

@NaturePortfolio

Nature Portfolio

@NaturePortfolio

2 years

A @NatureComms paper suggests that the first storms of the North Atlantic hurricane season have been occurring around 5 days per decade earlier since 1979. The study also suggests that the first named storm to make US landfall has been trending earlier.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

2 years

There have been key changes today in #Invest98L that signal development is not far off. My latest thoughts on why #98L is an increasingly concerning situation for #Florida and the eastern Gulf Coast, and why the model spread & uncertainty remain high:

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

4 years

WeatherTiger's August outlook for the 2020 #hurricane season is out today & there's not much good news in it. We predict ACE of 145-220, with 7-in-8 odds of an above average (125+) year. There is a 2/3rds chance of going Greek (22+ NS). Full report here:

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Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook for August 2020 | WeatherTiger

Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook for August 2020 by Dr. Ryan Truchelut - issued 6 August 2020 Key Points WeatherTiger's August outlook for the 2020 hurricane season is for a 85-90% chance of an...

weathertiger.com

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

7 days

@TLH_History I don't think there is something truly comparable since formal record-keeping started in 1851. No Cat 3 has ever tracked over Leon County, only Cat 2s are in 1852 and 1886. There seem to be some comparables potentially in the 1840s, Oct. 1842, Sept. 1843, Sept. 1844.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

2 years

You can see this adjustment in the NHC forecast tracks over the last 36 hours, and further shifts west may be incoming later today.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

7 years

@EricBlake12 @philklotzbach @carl_schreck @MJVentrice @webberweather @BigJoeBastardi @MichaelRLowry @JimCantore @tcrawf_nh @splillo @TropicalTidbits Just hung this on the wall of my office.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

1 year

Where do tropical cyclones develop in September? Everywhere. Where do tropical cyclones move in September? Everywhere. Almost 50% of historical Atlantic hurricane activity occurs in the next 30 days.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

6 years

Invest #90L in the Caribbean has a 50/50 shot at becoming a broad, wet, asymmetrical Gulf tropical storm this weekend. However, early season (May-July) TC activity has no relationship with how busy year is as a whole. The 2017 season was close to the median until end of August.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

5 years

It's not confirmed by NHC yet, but there's no way that in reality #HurricaneDorian isn't a Category 5 tonight.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

4 years

WeatherTiger's June outlook for the 2020 #hurricane season is out today & there's not much good news to be found in it. We're calling for a 75-80% chance of an above average year with a 15-20% chance of near-normal and a 5% chance of below-normal activity.

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Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook for June 2020 | WeatherTiger

WeatherTiger's June outlook for the 2020 hurricane season is for a 75-80% chance of an above average year, with a 15-20% chance of near-normal and just a 5% chance of below-normal cumulative activi...

weathertiger.com

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

2 years

With #Danielle & #Earl producing ~12 ACE units in the last 5 days, the 2022 hurricane season has climbed out of the climatological cellar. After bottoming at the 2nd percentile on 9/1, 2022 ACE has recovered to ~25th pctile, less active to date than 3/4ths of seasons since 1950.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

2 years

With no tropical activity on the horizon for the next 10 days, this week’s column is a whirlwind tour of Florida's hurricane history, region by region. Hurricane season is 1/3rd complete on the calendar, but only around 10% done in Florida landfall activity terms. Thread: (1/6)

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

2 years

WeatherTiger's 2022 Hurricane Season Outlook is out, still predicting an active season. One new twist: we’re debuting the 1st real-time seasonal hurricane model. Our ACE projections will update once daily through October. Key points below, outlook here:

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Real-time 2022 Atlantic hurricane season projections

Seasonal forecast model data, updated daily. A WeatherTiger world exclusive.

weathertiger.substack.com

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

2 years

#Invest98L has developed a broad but closed low-level circulation this afternoon. The location of the circulation center is generally in the middle of where the 12z GFS Ensembles had it happening today as shown, perhaps a touch south of 6z Euro Ensembles mean. 📷: @Weathernerds

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

1 year

An interesting, tiny surface low is passing just east of Jacksonville this morning. Will be continuing north/northwest into southeast Georgia over the next few hours and spreading showers as it goes.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

2 years

Something working in #Invest98L 's favor today is it will move into a pocket of much lower wind shear in the next 24 hours. Getting out from under the ~25kt northerly shear associated with #Fiona 's outflow may allow #98L to start generating more convection near its broad center.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

2 years

An @NWSTallahassee storm survey confirms an EF-1 tornado struck the Apalachicola National Forest yesterday morning. Peak winds were 105 mph. Hopefully everyone sought shelter during the warnings-- #Tallahassee is very fortunate the tornado lifted before reaching populated areas.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

6 years

WeatherTiger personnel news: With sibling TCs Isaac and Helene in the eastern Atlantic, this seems like the right time to announce the expected landfall of Helen Staehling Truchelut in mid-December! She looks forward to being the WeatherKitty to big brother Isaac's WeatherCub.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

2 years

#TropicalStormIan is a major hurricane threat to Florida. A portrait is emerging of #Ian ’s structure & the steering winds guiding it into the Gulf. Today's newsletter looks at odds of 4 general scenarios for Ian and what each means for #Florida weather.

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WeatherTiger's Tropical Storm Ian Forecast Analysis for September 24th

Ian gets named; breaking down four scenarios for possible impacts on Florida next week.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

2 years

Keep bleeding, keep, keep bleeding ACE

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

7 years

Live shot of #KelvinWave17 entering the Western Atlantic Basin. @AndyHazelton @TropicalTidbits #CCKW #nukehouston #ID4gifsaremyhammer

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

2 years

Future BALLOON trajectory highly dependent on altitude, which is unknown. At 15km (L), BALLOON races east out-to-sea. At 20km (C), heads towards Southeast coast. At 25km (R), hooks back west. Also, these assume BALLOON is a passive tracer, not being controlled (or "derelict").

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

1 year

Good morning to everyone except #TropicalDepression10 , soon to be #Idalia . A dangerous midweek #hurricane risk for the #Florida Gulf Coast continues to come into focus. I'll have a full forecast discussion on Tropical Depression 10 around 1 p.m.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

3 months

NHC now forecasting #TropicalStormBeryl to become a Category 3 #hurricane before reaching the Windward Islands on Monday. Major hurricanes are rare in the first third of #hurricaneseason -- other than #Beryl , only Cat 3+ east of the islands since 1900 is Hurricane Bertha (2008).

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

2 years

Need a plain language explanation of our new Nature Communications paper on shifts earlier in Atlantic tropical activity and U.S. landfalls? My @SubstackInc post summarizes what our findings mean for possible changes in how #hurricane season is defined.

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Why are Atlantic tropical storms developing earlier?

Tropical storms are reaching the U.S. coastline prior to hurricane season. Our new paper investigates whether that trend is meaningful, and why we might expect it to continue in the future.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

8 months

WeatherTiger weather modification systems: A C T I V E

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

1 year

The 2023 #HurricaneSeason starts tomorrow and WeatherTiger’s seasonal outlook calls for near normal tropical activity and elevated uncertainty. A new twist: we’re debuting a real-time U.S. landfall odds seasonal model this year to complement our real-time ACE model. Key points:

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

2 years

#TropicalStormIan has formed from #TD9 , with 45 mph sustained winds. Hurricane Hunters investigating #Ian are finding evidence the surface center has adjusted south overnight. Latest fix is south of guidance. Forecast changes possible today when this data is fed into models.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

2 years

@MKortvely @BrewCityChaser It's winter (purportedly), so I recommend stocking up on milk, bread, and eggs, in case you have an emergency need to make French toast during Balloonanation 2023: The Balloonening.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

1 year

The updated 2023 #HurricaneSeason outlook from @NOAA is out this morning. Like almost all other August outlooks, it projects increased odds of an active season relative to the May/June forecast. Forecast consensus is now for 160-165 ACE, just on the cusp of a hyperactive season.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

6 months

ALERT: WeatherTiger's initial outlook for the 2024 Hurricane Season will be released tomorrow, March 22, at 11 a.m. EDT. cc: @BIGDOGSWOOF

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

3 months

Huge thanks to @mattlanza for including WeatherTiger as recommended tropical read this AM. Honored to be mentioned in same sentence as @MichaelRLowry , @DrJeffMasters , & @bhensonweather . If you don't yet, follow @TheEyewallWx for witty expertise on hurricanes, TX weather, & more.

@TheEyewallWx

The Eyewall

3 months

We're back with a look at a Caribbean disturbance with low development odds, some Saharan dust, and also a list of other daily tropical updates we suggest you subscribe to. Check it out:

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

7 years

In Southwest FL, historical peak rate of hurricane landfalls occurs not in Sept., but 10/5-10/20. Risks higher in October during -ENSO yrs.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

5 months

Long-tracking tornadoes are unusual in #Tallahassee . Notable recent events were a 2021 EF1 that struck the airport and continued east and a 2019 EF3 in rural eastern Leon. No history of anything other than brief touchdowns in urban core/campuses/densest residential areas. (1/2)

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

6 months

Putting those together, that means 2024 is going to be in rare company, amongst just 8 other years since 1950 to have a cool Pacific and very warm Atlantic. Six of these eight years were "hyperactive" Atlantic hurricane seasons, with 60-150% more activity than normal.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

10 months

Heads up, #Florida : a non-tropical low will bring 2-4" of rain and gusts of 30-40 mph inland and 40-50 mph on the coast this weekend. Worst conditions late Saturday into early Sunday. Deflate those 20’ yard-Rudolphs if you don’t want to see if reindeer really know how to fly.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

6 years

We forced a bot to read over 1,000 Cliff Mass blogs and then made it write a Cliff Mass blog. Here's the first page. (Also a couple of Olive Garden ads might have gotten in there, sorry.)

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

1 year

This week's column explains the critical role the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) plays in defining historical eras of U.S. #hurricane landfall risks. It also contains 57 @TaylorSwift13 references. Please read this. It is my Oppenheimer. Link:

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

5 years

Though August 15th, the Atlantic #hurricane season is right at the 25th percentile of activity for years since 1950. This is less indicative of final outcome than you'd guess, as of the 14 years between 15 to 35th pctile on 8/15, eight finished below & six above the median. #FLwx

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

3 months

Honored to have played a small part in this effort led by @philklotzbach to better understand the complex interplay of the unusual influences on the 2023 hurricane season. Check it out in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society:

@philklotzbach

Philip Klotzbach

3 months

Excited to report that our paper on the 2023 Atlantic #hurricane season has been accepted for publication in the Bulletin of the AMS. We examine both observationally and using models why the season was above normal despite strong El Nino conditions:

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

3 years

WeatherTiger's 2021 Atlantic #HurricaneSeason June outlook: 142.5 ACE [50% chance 105-175] 16-21 named storms 7-10 #hurricanes 3-5 major hurricanes These numbers are up from April. A discussion of our model's handling of Atlantic SST/ENSO trends here:

Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook: June 2021

Will the hyperactivity of the 2020 season repeat in 2021? Is time linear or cyclical?

weathertiger.substack.com

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

1 year

With extreme heat in the eastern Atlantic and a strengthening El Nino putting 2023 in a league of its own, no surprise that hurricane season outlooks have much higher spread than normal. Variance between June forecasts is almost two-and-half times average and highest since 2016.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

3 months

#Beryl now a #hurricane per NHC 5 p.m. advisory. A hurricane forms in June around 15% of the time, and if #HurricaneBeryl peaks as a Category 3, it would be just the 3rd June major hurricane ever. June 2024 may also tie record for most named storms (3) if #Invest94L develops.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

1 year

A million thanks to all who trusted WeatherTiger for Idalia analysis this week (and to @SubstackInc for getting info out ASAP). Here's to this one being behind us & a hopefully extended period without FL hurricane threats so devastated Big Bend communities can start to recover.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

7 years

Surprise! #TropicalStormEmily has developed this morning just west of Tampa. Look for 3-5" of rainfall across south central and southern FL.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

4 months

We don't know. Landfall risks depend on where storm forms and move. It isn’t possible to forecast steering currents months ahead of time. Our seasonal model for U.S. hurricane risks has well above-normal landfall probabilities, though not as extreme a forecast as the ACE model.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

2 years

@philklotzbach Yep. Back to the 1950-2021 median in 5 or 6 days now. Still a third of the season to go-- probably going to be the longest third by far.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

2 months

#Debby 's motion has slowed this afternoon as its centers align, but it may now be heading just a touch east of due north. Given the position of the steering trough, I don't expect much if any additional westward motion. Soaking tropical rains continue in western FL peninsula.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

1 year

Leon County is now under a Hurricane Warning. Given trends with #Idalia , Tallahassee needs to prepare for 80-100+ mph wind gusts associated with a direct hit from the core of the hurricane.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

1 year

With #Philippe being absorbed into a nontropical low and no storms likely to form in the next 36 hours, tomorrow should snap a 49-day streak of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity that began on August 19. This beats a streak in 2017 from 8/23-9/30 as longest since at least 1995.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

1 year

The 12z GFS shows a disorganized moisture surge crossing eastern Gulf of Mexico next week, rather than stronger tropical storm shown on 0z/6z Euro. The early hours of GFS forecast look like a better match to observations. Still in evaluate mode for another 1-2 days with this.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

2 years

Today's column has a full wrap on #Fiona & #Gaston , and extensive thoughts on the long-term risks to the Gulf Coast & #Florida from #Invest98L . What do we know, what can we be confident in, and what do we not have a good guess for right now? #98L #FLwx

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Earth, Wind, and Fire: Hurricane Watch Weekly Column for September 21st

Cat 4 Fiona is heading for Atlantic Canada; Invest 98L is a potential day 7-10 U.S. threat.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

7 years

A new WaPo/ @capitalweather article from WeatherTiger's research team, putting the 12yr U.S. major hurricane landfall drought in perspective.

@capitalweather

Capital Weather Gang

@capitalweather

7 years

Just ended hurricane drought has few historical precedents, and we may not get so lucky again for a long time:

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

3 years

Unofficially, Tallahassee (KTLH) reported a temperature of 19F in the last hour. If confirmed, this would be the first low below 20F since January 4, 2012: the end of a record 3,678 day streak.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

2 years

#TropicalStormFiona developed overnight. Some have noted that #Fiona will cross a "Hebert box," indicating a possible eventual threat to #Florida . However, the Hebert "rule" only applies to TCs that are majors in the box; even then, only 12 of 30 those MHs eventually struck FL.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

2 months

NOAA Hurricane Hunter data shows #TropicalStormDebby 's surface center is well east of the NHC 5 p.m. path. Look for the forecast track to shift tonight. Also, no real strengthening since the early afternoon as #Debby contends with dry air to its west. Improved structure though.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

4 years

Heads up: The #Tropics are likely to become more active by this time next week. Four waves spanning the Atlantic will encounter increasingly moist environment. No specific threat to monitor yet, but >50% chance of at least 1 of these systems developing on days 6-12 imo. #FLwx

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WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

6 months

Thanks for reading! There's lots more discussion in the full outlook linked below, but the upshot is that the pieces are there for an extremely busy hurricane season. Enjoy and don't forget to sign up for WeatherTiger's free hurricane newsletters.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

2 months

Dixie County and is being clobbered by the eastern eyewall as Debby comes ashore. Horseshoe Beach is reporting a gust of 98 mph with sustained winds of 68 mph, and there's another report of a 90 mph near the Dixie/Taylor line. So far, top gust at Tallahassee Airport is 39 mph.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

7 years

Leon County and east now under a Winter Storm Warning. Ice accumulations of 0.1" or more and snow of up to 1" expected in warning area. We will have a forecast video out this evening breaking down what #Tallahassee can expect during #Snolepocalypse2018 .

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WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

2 months

Predicting seasonal landfall risks is tough because patterns leading to more ACE also favor proportionately less ACE reaching the U.S. Cool August MDR SSTs tend to mean less ACE, but that a higher percentage of what develops strikes the U.S., for instance. PDO also key mode.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

1 year

With models gradually trending towards a more favorable (low shear, adequate moisture) environment for #Invest93L , the stunning heat content of the Gulf waters this year becomes more alarming. Heat content of the NE Gulf of Mexico is the highest on this date since at least 2017.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

2 months

#TropicalStormDebby continuing to track notably east of the 12z GFS Ensemble members as of 3:30 pm.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

1 year

Additionally, dual channel outflow will be in place to ventilate the storm on Tuesday. Often associated with rapid intensification.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

2 years

The 06z EPS & 06z GEFS are coming into better consensus on #HurricaneIan 's track as a period of potential rapid intensification begins. Ensemble means now show #Ian 's position 50-100 miles west of Tampa on Wednesday night. We'll see if the eastern UKMET converges as well today.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

2 years

For those of you who didn't lose power for five days from Hermine 1, the 2016 version of #Hermine was a Category 1 hurricane that made landfall in Apalachee Bay on Sept. 1. It caused significant tree damage in Tallahassee and the eastern Florida panhandle. Radar loop: @BMcNoldy .

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

2 months

With PDO trending a little less cold and low pressures in the Canadian Arctic this summer, there are some signs of a possible stronger Bermuda high at points in September. Model odds are 95% of 1+ more U.S. hurricane, ~55% of at least one U.S. Cat 3 or higher landfall in 2024.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

2 years

Assuming #Invest91L doesn't receive a name by tomorrow, 2022 will be the only year on record with zero tropical or subtropical storm formations between July 4th and August 31st since 1950.

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@wx_tiger

WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com

1 year

@mattlanza It's a 6, Matt. #analysis

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