Hurricane scientist for NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-90. Co-founded Weather Underground in 1995. Semi-retired, I write about extreme weather and climate change.
Death Valley hit 130°F this hour, breaking all-time reliably measured world heat record of 129.9°F set August 16, 2020 at the same site. To see the obs, choose 24 hours and click Decoded Data from this link: . Final high may be higher; Saturday even hotter?
Climate change will inevitably stop being a hazy future concern and will someday turn everyday life upside down. At the risk of causing counterproductive doomism, I offer observations and speculations on how the planetary crisis may play out. 1/25
“The entire water crisis in the American West comes down to cows eating alfalfa in a landscape where neither belongs. The delta of the Colorado could be reborn with the water that today goes to produce a third of 1% of the nation’s cattle production.
Ida made a direct hit on Port Fourchon, a critical hub for the U.S. oil industry. According to its website, Port Fourchon plays a strategic role in furnishing the U.S. with about 18% of its entire oil supply. The port has lots of tank farms; oil spills will be a hazard.
With 195 mph winds, Goni is the strongest landfalling tropical cyclone in world recorded history. Previous record: Super Typhoon Meranti, September 16, 2016, Itbayat Island, Philippines, and Super Typhoon Haiyan, November 8, 2013, Leyte Island, Philippines (190 mph winds).
This is going to get expensive: If climate change increases the outside temperature from 96F to 100F, the energy your air conditioner consumes increases by 42%, since the power consumed varies by the square of the temperature difference between the outside and inside.
As reported by
@WeatherProf
, Manatee Bay, FL, recorded an astonishing sea surface temperature (SST) of 101.1°F (38.4°C) at a depth of 5' today, and also hit 100.2°F (37.9°C) yesterday -- common hot tub temperatures! An SST of 101.1°F could be a world record. A 🧵 1/9
“A 1-acre solar farm produces as much energy as 100 acres of corn-based ethanol over the course of a year. Dedicating even a fraction of the land now devoted to ethanol to solar panels would produce more energy and ease the ecological burden on our most prolific farming region.”
The entire environmental community, & I suppose most everyone else, has realized that corn ethanol is a nightmare on every dimension. And yet, we're still doing it, & pols are still supporting it! So glad
@tomphilpott
is still waging this lonely war.
After 100s of hours of research (including reading 8 books on sea level rise), I feel like I have a good grasp of the accelerating U.S. flood risk from climate change. Part 1 of my 3-part series is up; part 2 is Friday; Part 3 (the best one!) is Monday.
The Port of Vancouver - 4th largest port in North America, and largest in Canada - had its 3 main highways and all rail routes to the rest of Canada cut by floods and mudslides. This is the type of climate change-exacerbated extreme weather event we’ll see more of in the future.
Read more on what's going on with this devastating event.
@DrJeffMasters
explains atmospheric rivers - they're "like a river in the sky," he says.
#weather
Increasingly likely Tampa Bay will see a damaging storm surge. Know your risk! lets you enter an address and see its risk. NHC Storm Surge Risk Maps () show all escape routes out of Pinellas County flood will over 6' in a Cat 1.
Rough penetration for the Hurricane Hunters in Ian. A strong updraft carried them 700 feet higher, then a downdraft slammed then down, followed by an updraft. Very similar to the structure of the eyewall mesocyclone I flew into in Hugo in 1989 that nearly killed us.
My goodness. In the last inbound pass thru the SW eyewall, plane was jolted in what was a ~700 ft immediate change in altitude. Then they circle in the eye, probably to catch their breath. Behaving *exactly* like my Michael landfall mission (2018). Intensification likely ongoing.
Major flooding in Key West. Ian’s surge hit 2.16’ above MHHW at 9:36 p.m., 3rd highest water level on record, behind Wilma in 2005 (3.14’), and Irma in 2017 (2.66’). Records extend back to 1913 at the station. High tide is at 11:30 p.m., and the water is still rising.
But as Harvard’s E.O. Wilson, father of sociobiology, said: “The real problem of humanity is the following: We have Paleolithic emotions, medieval institutions, and godlike technology. And it is terrifically dangerous, and it is now approaching a point of crisis overall.” 16/25
Port of South Louisiana-largest bulk cargo port in the world-was in strong right front eyewall of category 3 Hurricane Ida at 8-9 pm, when peak winds were estimated at 115-120 mph. Damage will likely shut down barge traffic for weeks with potential serious U.S. economic impact.
Wow, major civil unrest in Iran over water scarcity. We’ll see this sort of drama play out worldwide with increasing frequency as climate change intensifies droughts.
The crackdown came after the protests spilled over to at least one other Iranian city and a major protest on Friday loomed. Weather experts say 97 percent of the country is dealing with water scarcity issues.
“Florida is using tens of millions of public dollars to fund the construction of seawalls on — and to protect — private property.” This will end up eroding adjacent public beaches, and is a terrible use of public funds.
Hurricane
#Otis
may well surpass the $7.5 billion cost (2022 USD) of Hurricane Wilma of 2005 as Mexico's most expensive weather disaster on record. Crazy to see the top floors of high rises completely blown out, with the interior walls gone.
Last night was one of the most shocking weather events in my 40 years as a meteorologist--a violent tornado (in December!) drawing comparisons to the deadliest and longest-tracking tornado in U.S. history, the 1925 Tri-State Tornado. Hoping this list doesn’t need updating:
The super typhoon is predicted to make a direct hit on Guam with 155-160 mph winds, making it an unprecedented ninth category 4 or 5 storm to hit a U.S. state or territory since 2017.
When I began my career as a meteorologist 40 years ago, I wondered if I would live to see one of America's most iconic weather records fall - the record for hottest summer, set in the great Dust Bowl of 1936. Finally, in 2021, the record has fallen:
Idalia 1 of 10 historical storms since 1950 intensifying at least 40 mph in the 24 hours before U.S. landfall. Sobering to see five of those storms occurred in the past seven years. Climate change increases the odds of rapid intensification.
So put your shoulder to an oar! Help us power the boat of civilization through the rapids of climate change. All of humanity shares the same boat, and you have the opportunity to make your own unique and valuable contribution to the effort (try the
@KHayhoe
suggestions!) 25/25
At the root of the climate crisis: humanity’s spiritual inharmoniousness. We overvalue the pursuit of material wealth and worship billionaires but undervalue growing connected to our spiritual selves and acting to preserve and appreciate the natural systems that sustain us. 24/24
Looks like 130°F will be the final high; temps are starting to decline. Below: The temperature measurement enclosure at Death Valley on August 17, 2020, taken by climatologist William Reid, the day after the old world record was broken.
A humanitarian crisis looms in Myanmar as Mocha makes landfall as a category 4 storm with 155 mph winds, after peaking at category 5 strength with 175 mph winds--the strongest cyclone on record in the North Indian Ocean. My Sunday post:
As a result, we may have only a few more years--perhaps as much as 15 years--before the approaching climate change storm ends our golden age of prosperity. But this “golden age” was made of fool's gold, paid for with wealth plundered from future generations. 19/25
Not to be outdone by Sam in the Atlantic, the Pacific answered back with an even more impressive feat of rapid intensification: Cat 5 Super Typhoon Mindulle intensified by 80 mph to 160 mph in the 24 hours ending at 0Z Sep. 26 - a rate of intensification rarely seen.
As Susan Hassol (
@ClimateComms
) says, “This is the fight of our lives, and it’s a multigenerational task. We need what’s been called ‘cathedral thinking.’ That is, the people who started working on that stone foundation, they never saw the thing finished." 20/25
Waves over 40' predicted in the Gulf. The Taylor Oil Spill started in 2004 after Hurricane Ivan brought 70’ waves off the coast of Louisiana that caused submarine landslides that took out a drilling rig. The site still leaks oil.
Remarkable storm surge in Charleston from a coastal low: a water level exceeded by only 3 hurricanes—Hugo in 1989, the 1940 hurricane, and Irma in 2017. Sea level rise and land subsidence makes it easier for even relatively weak non-hurricanes to set top-5 water level records.
RECORD ALERT: Prelim max tide in the Charleston Harbor is 9.86 ft MLLW. This is the 4th highest tide on record and well above the highest tide for a non-tropical system. That record was 8.81 ft MLLW set on 01/01/1987. Widespread dangerous flooding continues.
#chswx
#scw
That plot shows a release of 62 kilotons of SO2. Mt. Pinatubo in 1991 released 20,000 kilotons; El Chicon of 1982, 7,000 tons. So the Tonga eruption needs to emit a lot more SO2 to reach the climate-cooling impact of those previous eruptions. See:
Each 1°C the oceans warms makes a hurricane 40-50% more destructive, according to theory and modeling. Thus, the 1°C of August warming of SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico from long-term global warming likely made Idalia much more destructive.
A new theoretical study finds a potential source of the increasingly wild global weather in recent decades: deforestation. “Loss of native forest cover should result in continent-scale destabilization of the water cycle and temperature regime.”
Major economic disruption from climate change might come from a collapse of the housing market in flood-and wildfire-prone states, where climate risk is not properly priced.
@AlexSteffen
calls this the Brittleness Bubble, and predicts that it will pop within 5-10 years . 5/25
2021 was also the first year Earth has recorded four weather mega-disasters costing over $20 billion each (adjusted for inflation). See my new post, "The top 10 global weather and climate change events of 2021":
Death Valley hit 129°F (120°F at midnight!), China set its all-time heat record, and a heatwave continues to roast Europe. The latest on the hemisphere-wide heat wave from Bob Henson and myself:
"It took generations to get these major works done. This is that kind of problem. And we have to all do our part. The more I act, the better I feel, because I know I’m part of the solution.” 21/25
To be clear... this particular warning for NYC is the second time we've ever issued a Flash Flood Emergency (It's the first one for NYC). The first time we've issued a Flash Flood Emergency was for Northeast New Jersey a an hour ago.
@LakeSuperior
delivering an epic pounding to Michigan’s U.P. Sustained winds of at least tropical storm-force (39 mph) for nearly 12 hours at Grand Marias (sustained 51 mph, gusting to 63, at 10 a.m.) Sig wave height of 16’ at the E Superior buoy, with waves up to 24’ near shore.
Wishful thinking: We’ve reached a “new normal” of extreme weather. In reality, the weather will keep growing more extreme until net-zero emissions are reached. Under the optimistic “Low” scenario presented here, that will not occur until the mid-2070s. (2023 U.S. NCA) 10/25
Ok, nocturnal mid-December thunderstorms along the north shore of Lake Superior by Canada. When I was a undergrad meteorology student in the 70s at Michigan, predicting such an event would occur in my career would have seemed ludicrous!
The U.S. insurance crisis: “There’s no place to hide from these severe natural disasters. They’re happening all over the country and so insurers are having to relook at their risk concentration.” ...
The coastal real estate market may not crash in the next 10 years if we get lucky with hurricanes and pump in huge amounts of cash to bail out the failing system. But in the mid-2030s, accelerating sea level rise from an 18.6-year wobble in the moon’s orbit causes trouble. 6/25
Another immediate danger: a series of global extreme weather events affecting agriculture, causing global economic turmoil. Lloyd's of London modeled the odds of a “major” food shock scenario costing $3 trillion globally over a 5-year period at 2.3%/year (50%/30 years). 7/25
Phosphorus availability in a warmer climate may slow forest growth, reducing the amount of CO2 trees take up: “A fierce battle is being fought in the soil beneath our feet – and the implications for global warming are huge” via
@ConversationEDU
Paywalled, but important: "Today’s global supply chains are woefully unprepared for a Chinese drought. As China continues over-exploiting groundwater amid intensified weather volatility, it moves closer each year to a catastrophic water event.”
Though climate change isn't accelerating faster than predicted, devastating impacts from climate change are accelerating because the new climate is crossing thresholds beyond which an infrastructure designed for the 20th century can withstand. 12/25
By 2100, I am optimistic we will have successfully ridden the rapids of the climate crisis, emerging into a new era of clean energy and a stabilizing climate. There are too many talented and dedicated people working hard on solutions for us to fail.
2°C of warming is akin to a major Cat 3 hurricane: devastating, but not catastrophic. 2.5°C is Cat 4-level damage—near catastrophic. And 3°C of warming will likely be a catastrophic Category 5-level superstorm of destruction that will crash civilization. 4/25
Wow! This is remarkable. “emissions from the wildfires, which quickly encircled the Southern Hemisphere, kicked off a chain of climate interactions.” Cooling and trade wind shifts off the coast of Peru then ultimately helped trigger a La Niña. …
A new study concludes that the 2019-2020 Australian bushfires contributed to oceanic cooling in the Tropical Pacific that likely nudged us into a rare multi-year La Niña:
The high probability that the weather will grow more extreme for many decades increase the odds of some very bad long-term threats from global catastrophic risk events (ones that kill more than 10 million people or lead to damages of $10 trillion+): 11/25
The cornerstone of this cathedral of the future has already been laid. The clean energy revolution is here and has progressed far more rapidly than I had dared hope. Passage of the 2021 Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and 2023 Inflation Reduction Act have been instrumental. 22/25
Prior to 2020's Hurricane Paulette, I never saw a hurricane wrapping wildfire smoke into it. Now, we see one most years. Witness today's Hurricane Ernesto:
Eye-popping numbers from research published today: 1992–2013 losses from human-caused extreme heat were $5 trillion to $29.3 trillion globally. Losses were 6.7% of GDP/year for poor nations, and 1.5% of GDP/year for the rich.
Michael Lowry on the insanely hot Atlantic temperatures: "Whether hurricane season lives up to this year’s hype is to be seen, but with 90% of the tropical belt immersed in record or near record warm waters, the Atlantic powder keg awaits its first spark."
I have no doubt a dip in Manatee Bay today would have been a hot tub-like experience, with SSTs near 100°F, and that these waters were some of the hottest ever recorded on Earth. A detailed investigation would be needed to determine if this was a world record SST, though. 9/9
This is a huge issue. After I got laid off from IBM in 2019 and then Scientific American in 2020, all of my outreach and writing has been unpaid. A planetary crisis should have motivated funders to step forward and support climate communication efforts, but it hasn’t happened.
I've had dozens--perhaps hundreds--of conversations with people and entities who could potentially support this kind of work in the medium to long term. Some have been incredibly enthusiastic about that prospect! But all have ultimately fallen through, and now it's crunch time.
The urgency to rapidly deal with the climate crisis was succinctly summarized by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its latest summary report: “There is a rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a livable and sustainable future for all.” 15/25
Like John Wesley Powell's 1st Grand Canyon expedition, we're in an ever-deepening chasm of climate change impacts, forced to run a perilous course through dangerous rapids of unknown ferocity. Our path is fraught with great peril. 2/25
Ida is forecast to hit the industrial corridor between Baton Rouge and New Orleans, site of three key ports, petrochemical sites, and a nuclear power plant. See my Saturday afternoon post,
It’s sobering to realize that the current U.S. insurance crisis has primarily been driven by increased exposure and foolish insurance policies that promote development in risky places, not climate change. But its relative contribution to the crisis will grow significantly. 14/25
An argument for restoring wetlands rather than planting trees to offset carbon emissions: “Peatlands, salt marshes, and other coastal and inland wetlands cover just 1% of Earth’s surface, yet they store 20% of our planet’s ecosystem carbon.”
What is a dangerous level of climate change? When long-term global warming surpasses the “dangerous” threshold of 1.5°C above preindustrial temperatures in the 2030s, I think of this as a Cat 1 hurricane for humanity. 3/25
Another concern: wholly unanticipated “black swan” extreme weather events. An example: Superstorm Sandy of 2012, an unholy hybrid spawn of a Caribbean hurricane/extratropical storm that became the largest hurricane ever observed and one of the most damaging ($88 billion). 8/25
The jet stream is misbehaving again, locking into a resonance pattern that has been linked to climate change. Increasing weather extremes are due not only to more heat in the atmosphere, but also to climate change altering fundamental atmospheric circulation patterns.
The current record heat in Portugal and Spain is linked to hot air coming from the south-west, which is linked to a wave in the jetstream (blue). It goes anti-clockwise around a low pressure over the Atlantic, sitting above the cold patch in the North Atlantic sea surface. 1/x
Atlantic tropical weather update: There's nothing worth writing about, except the fact that there's nothing worth writing about. And may this continue!
Had a Weather Underground reunion dinner in SF this evening; I haven’t seen my dear friends from this great company for 5+ years! Thanks for helping build the greatest Internet weather company that ever existed, guys; I miss the team and business we built.
Only 5 major typhoons have hit Vietnam, according to the JTWC database. All were Cat 3s. Typhoon
#Noru
predicted to be the 6th, and maybe the strongest.
Two of the top-15 wind gusts measured globally occurred last month--a 205 mph gust in Hurricane Otis and a 213 mph gust in Typhoon Koinu. But measuring such extreme gusts is very challenging and prone to error, as I explain:
@yangyubin1998
@SMareograficoN
Hurricane Otis' eyewall hit the most heavily developed areas of Acapulco (pop. just over 1 million), perhaps setting a record for the largest number of people ever to experience the eyewall of a Cat 5 storm.
Or “gray swan” events, which models say could happen but exceed anything in the historical record. Examples: a $1 trillion California “ARkStorm” flood, and failure of the Old River Control Structure allowing the Mississippi River to change course in an extreme flood. 9/25
Yikes! New research predicts that the insane 2021 NW U.S. heat wave was impossible in the 1950s, is now a 1-in-200-year event, and will likely become a 1-in-10-year event by 2050 with further global warming.
☀️My first PhD paper is out today! We investigated the extraordinary 2021 PNW heatwave🔥(+ Kai Kornhuber
@kkornhuber
& Mingfang Ting
@mfting
), identifying processes that supercharged it and their relations to climate change.
@NatureClimate
Link:
If you had on your 2022 weird-weather Bingo card that the major U.S. city that would come closest to a hurricane during the first half of the 2022 hurricane season would be San Diego, then you’re psychic.
This is occurring in tandem with an increase in exposure — more people with more stuff living in harm’s way — which is the dominant cause of the sharp increase in weather-disaster losses in recent years. 13/25
Was the 101.1°F SST believable compared to the air temperature? The air temperature at Key Largo peaked at 95°F, with winds of 0-8 mph during the afternoon. With such light winds, sunlit shallow water surrounded by dark land can have an SST that exceeds the air temperature. 2/9
The 2022 European heat wave has claimed at least 659 lives in Portugal and 360 in Spain (total: 1,019 deaths). These appear to be direct deaths, not excess mortality. According to EM-DAT, only 11 previous heat waves have been recorded to have direct deaths in excess of 1,000:
As of July 16: More than 1,000 heat-related fatalities already reported in
#Portugal
(659) and
#Spain
(360) during the past 7 days. Heat stress to humans and agriculture to be considerable for another few days across
#Europe
. Historic heat wave with climate change amplification.
Historic storm surge at 12:06 pm in Portland, Maine (data since 1912): highest water level on record, 4.67’ above MHHW (old record: 4.22’, 2/7/1978). Portland's 4th highest water level was 3 days ago. Without sea level rise of 8” since 1912, today’s flood would still rank
#1
.
Ida hit the Port of South Louisiana as a category 3 storm with 115-120 mph winds. The port moved about 65% of U.S. soybean exports and 55% of corn in 2020, and was still closed on Friday. Below: tugs freeing grounded bulk cargo vessel Nord Pollux at the port on Sep 1 (NOAA).
#freddy
a worst-case scenario for storm surge: moving just 1 mph near shore; lots of time to pile up a huge surge into the estuaries southwest of eye. Forecast surge of 7-11' at Quelimane (pop. 350,000) and Macuze (pop. 80,000), which are largely below 6’ elevation (red areas).
Nearly 8 percent of the global land area experienced extreme drought in 2023—a new record.
Drought and heat waves contributed to massive wildfires around the globe, including in Canada, Australia, and Greece.
#StateoftheClimate2023
More highlights:
When disaster strikes in the form of a major flood, hurricane, or the like, we merely give the equivalent of a blood transfusion to the injured, without stopping the bleeding. My latest on U.S. climate adaptation efforts:
Jacobabad (population 191,000) hit a peak wet-bulb temperature of 33.1°C (91.6°F) today (), close to the theoretical human survival limit of 35°C. The practical limit for extended exposure is 25-31°C, detailed in my post last week,
Jacobabad again ! Today 14 May the Pakistani town of Jacobabad rose to 51.0C,highest temperature of 2022 in the world (above the 50.7C recorded in Australia). 50.5C also at Nawabshah and 50.0C at Moen Jo Daro. Later a tweet about India. Stay tuned.
In 2020, TS Eta passed 70 miles west of Tampa with winds of 65-70 mph, bringing a storm surge of 3-4 feet above ground level to Tampa Bay. A Tampa Bay Times article () says in Pinellas County over 1,400 homes worth $176 million flooded; one death occurred.
The Maui fire (36 deaths) is the 2nd-deadliest U.S. wildfire of the past 100 years, behind the 2018 Camp Fire in California (88 deaths). We dive into the meteorology and climate change factors of the event; Hurricane Dora was not the most important one:
The problem with biofuels: "The math just doesn’t pencil out. It would take about 30 percent of the world’s crops to provide just 2 percent of the world’s energy, which would drive up food prices, speed up deforestation and ratchet up carbon emissions."
@Weather_West
@OceansClimateCU
Etienne had a good observation: high pressure off the SE coast of Newfoundland in late June-July has led to light surface winds, less ocean mixing, and rapidly warming SSTs. Here's surface wind anomaly for June, showing wind speeds over 1.5 m/s below average.
Michigan’s ice storm has caused the state’s largest power outage since 920,000 customers lost power from thunderstorms on August 10, 2021. Power just flickered at my house, but still on. 🤞
A huge toll. "There are people that would have died anyway, but those are not counted with this methodology,” said Joan Ballester, lead author of the study. “We are talking about people for whom the occurrence of these temperatures triggered their death.”
An astonishing 7 of Africa’s 30 deadliest weather-related disasters since 1900 occurred in in the past 2 years. This could well be a harbinger of the future, as higher vulnerability and more extreme weather events from climate change cause an increase in deadly disasters.
Three all-time national heat records have been set or tied in the past 2 weeks, including the 62-year-old one for the Southern Hemisphere. Today, the all-time record for Uruguay was tied, and the heat wave in neighboring Argentina is a concern for crops.
New study says lab data shows the limit of human survivability is a wet bulb temp of 30.6°C at RH of 50%, not the theoretical 35°C. This greatly expands the area where human habitation will become difficult with global warming.
New study bolsters case that humans will bump up against heat limits in coming years, barring sharp emissions cuts and adaptation measures.
📷Showing India, China, Sahel, MidEast limits under warming scenarios. w/
@BecFalconer
Map from Climate Central’s Surging Seas: not a lot of downtown Acapulco is <6’ elevation, but the airport and regions to the SE are. Deep water offshore is not conducive for building large storm surges. Thus, wind damage, not storm surge, is the main concern for Otis.
#Otis
poses a sudden, dire, and unusual threat to the Acapulco area after leaping from tropical storm to cat-3 hurricane strength in just 6 hrs. No major hurricane landfall has been recorded within 50 miles of the city, as is now predicted for
#Otis
early Wed.