Great news! The new platform from the original creator of Twitter - blue sky - is now open. Run, don’t walk, over there for an active & thriving science community with the kind of discussions that used to occur here back in the day. Can’t recommend it highly enough. Here’s me ⬇️
I caught these unearthly mammatus west of the Kimball NE area just after sunset on Fri 6/23/23. They were generated by a severe storm complex in far NE CO.
Saturday 10:24 am: Hottest on record in Siberia...Verhojansk, which has an average high of the day of 68F during June, had their first 100F reading on record today!
Lest anyone think this is some kind of mapping error, SST reports from buoys around the Florida Keys posted as of ~7 PM ET Sun are downright shocking, e.g.:
Key West 92.1F
Vaca Key 94.3F
Johnson Key 95.7F
😱
A critical point here. Katrina reached Cat 5 strength in the Gulf but "only" made landfall as a Cat 3. That didn't matter for Katrina's catastrophic surge. There are other examples.
Simply no precedent in living memory for a FL W Coast storm of this trajectory & strength....
#Milton
is on a path to Cat 5 today. But want to address the "it's supposed to weaken" talk before it even gets out the gate. Regardless of winds at landfall, this 10-12 ft surge is set in motion. Wall of water higher than a basketball hoop. If you're <12 ft of elevation, GET OUT
If confirmed, this prelim total of 22.59” in just seven hours tonight at Fort Lauderdale would obliterate the city’s rainfall record for any ***three calendar days** (18.24” on Oct 19-21, 1924)
Easily one of the wildest mesoscale weather events I've seen...
This supercell recently divided after being stationary for hours. Both cyclonic & anticyclonic rotation has been exhibited. Between 3-10pm, the Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood Int'l AP measured 22.59" of rainfall...
#FLwx
Imagine 120°F (49°C) in the shade--and even by the water. You're picturing the
#heatwave
now scorching
#Australia
. Fire threat will be top-of-the-scale in some areas on Friday
Today is hotter in Portland OR - at least 115F - than it has ever been in:
Oklahoma City OK (113F on 8/11/1936 and 8/3/2012)
Dallas-Fort Worth TX (113F on 6/26 and 6/27/1980)
Austin TX (112F on 9/5/2000 and 8/28/2011)
A overnight "low" of 94.8F?? And this hellish night was not in a tiny town. Chongqing has close to 9 million residents, with 30 million in the entire administrative area.
It's hard to overstate the scenario in Atlantic Canada with
#Fiona
. Multiple models in multiple runs now predict Fiona could set a national record low for sea-level pressure at landfall. See attached example, from the 12Z HWRF, showing 927 mb *after* crossing Nova Scotia. 1/3
Let's nip this "frozen wind turbines" narrative in the bud, right here and now. Yes, that's a thing, but by far the biggest factor in Texas' electricity emergency today was the loss of thermal power plants--and most of them are gas-powered.
Wind has been producing ~1.5 GW less than ERCOT expected for a winter peak event, solar ~1 GW more than expected, & nuclear running 100%. Meanwhile, >30 GW of fossil plants, mostly natural gas, went down. So of course the narrative is -- frozen wind turbines! 🤦♂️
#RollingBlackouts
Seattle's NWS forecaster is laying it out:
"...temperatures will skyrocket at sunrise. As there is no previous occurrence of the event we're experiencing in the local climatological record, it's somewhat disconcerting to have no analogy to work with."
When seasonal forecasts flop, you tend to hear about it—but when they're good, it's often crickets. Here are NOAA's 2024 summer temp outlook (Jun-Aug), w/the observed temp anomalies for virtually the same period. The general flavors are right there.
Last year's Hurricane Michael has now been upgraded to Category 5, making it just the fourth storm on record to strike the Gulf or Atlantic U.S. coast at Cat 5 strength.
BREAKING: Earth’s oceans have preliminarily set a new all-time record high temperature yesterday at 21.10°C. The previous record was set only a few months ago in August 2023.
Cyclone
#Shaheen
-Gulab is predicted to strike as a Cat 2 storm near
#Sohar
, Oman--a city that's never even recorded a tropical depression before.
Waves could approach 40 feet, and rains of 8-20" are possible. Sohar's entire *annual* average is 4".
1/2
The just-failed
#Sanford
and
#Edenville
dams--both 95 years old and privately owned--are both rated "high hazard" in the National Inventory of Dams. () High hazard = "loss of human life is likely if a dam were to fail."
Judging from the crickets on major U.S. news sites, who would ever know that a hurricane (
#Yutu
) is expected to slam into a U.S. commonwealth as a Category 5 storm in about 12 hours? Most of the 53,000 residents of the
#northernmarianas
are U.S. citizens
#Otis
poses a sudden, dire, and unusual threat to the Acapulco area after leaping from tropical storm to cat-3 hurricane strength in just 6 hrs. No major hurricane landfall has been recorded within 50 miles of the city, as is now predicted for
#Otis
early Wed.
The NWS is calling for *each* of the next five days to be hotter than the *official all-time record* for Anchorage. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a forecast quite like this.
@AriGerstman
Hey, Ari! There's not a solid long-term database on hourly temp swings. That said, this is the biggest drop on record in Cheyenne for a one-hour span, much less 30 minutes.
The cold front has arrived in Cheyenne and it is already a record-breaker! From 1:05 to 1:35, the temperature plunged from 43 to 3 degrees, a FOURTY-DEGREE drop in just 30 minutes! This shatters our previous 1-hour temp drop record of 37 degrees, and we are still dropping!
#wywx
In a nutshell: “the most extraordinary heat event to ever affect the northeastern quadrant of the U.S. during the month of February,” in records going back to the 1800s.
Last week the U.S. Drought Monitor reported the highest fraction of abnormal dryness/drought (81.78% of the contiguous U.S.) in the monitor's 23-year history.
This week the record was toppled again, with 82.23%.
#Alert
, Nunavut, Canada—at latitude 82.5°N, the northernmost permanently inhabited spot on Earth—hit 69°F today (20.5°C) for the first time on record.
Needless to say, this one can't be pinned on an urban heat island.
The 136F from Al Azizia, Libya, has been tossed. WMO still recognizes 134F (56.7C) from Death Valley (10 July 1913) and 131F (55C) from Kebili, Tunisia (7 July 1931). Some experts argue for 129.2F (54C) as the world record. See
The building PacNW/SW Canada heat wave is not just a grave public health threat. I think it'll have a profound effect on the collective psyche of the region, and just maybe on climate change awareness. 1/7
RECORD DAY
Historic heat wave on the Gulf
All time records fell by dozens including New Orleans, Houston (tie) and many others.
Here a list of the most important all time records broken, tied and some for August.
Another day, another U.S. landfall:
#Nicholas
will be the 19th named storm to strike the U.S. in the last 17 months.
The 1950-2020 annual average for U.S. named-storm landfalls (tropical storms and hurricanes) is three.
Per mapping by
@DrJeffMasters
atop NOAA’s historical hurricanes database, Zeta is the strongest hurricane on record whose center passed directly over the city of New Orleans (light orange area).
🚨 Today's high of 66° in Boise is the warmest temperature on record for the month of January. It breaks the previous monthly record of 63° (1/9/53) Temperature records date back to 1875.
#idwx
Not only is this scorching 107.7°F the warmest daily low in U.S. history, assuming it holds till midnight (a safe bet), but it was recorded at one of the nation's gold-standard Climate Reference Network stations:
Min temperature of 42.0°C [107.7°F] in Stovepipe Wells,
#DeathValley
🇺🇸 last night!
This is the highest min temperature ever recorded in North America & the highest worldwide outside Oman (in Khasab).
Previous record in N.A. was 41.7°C [107°F] in Furnace Creek on July 12, 2012.
What made the landscape so fire-prone before Thursday's extreme high winds spawned the
#MarshallFire
? Denver data for Sep 1-Dec 29:
--Avg temp: 52.2F
(2nd warmest in 150 yrs of data)
--Precip: 0.47"
(least in 150 yrs of data)
--Snowfall: 0.3"
(least in 140 yrs of data)
#canicule
#Australie
#Australia
#heatwave
Records absolus sur la partie centrale ce 3 janvier
45,6°C Alice Springs (=29-12-2018, > 45,2 03-01-1960)
46,8°C Uluru (Ayers Rock) > 46,4 11-01-2013
47,4°C Walungurru > 46,7 09-01-2013 (le + chaud depuis 1960 dans le Territoire du Nord)
There's virtually no precedent for a hurricane moving southwest for some time along the Carolina coast. Such an unorthodox track could produce some very unexpected outcomes, including a storm surge propagating from north to south.
#Kappa
later this week?
Possible threat for Nicaragua and Costa Rica.
Some ensemble guidance suggests it's possible, and NHC has now circled it.
What a dreadful
#hurricane
season.
Key point from the article: Beaufort, NC, had its highest water level on record early today--but without sea level rise since the 1950s, that record would not have occurred.
Already,
#Florence
has produced record-high coastal water levels, and rainfall may top 40" in some areas through the weekend. The risk of devastating floods is going up. This disaster is far, far from over. The latest from WU experts:
Fascinating patterns in U.S. spring leaf-out this year: 2-3 weeks late in the near-record-cold-April zone from NoPlains to Northeast, and 1-2 weeks late in Deep South, but 1-3 weeks early across the Southwest & Upper South.
Boulder hit 9F this morning, the coldest it's ever been this late in the season. Incredible scenery today after a 17.7" snowstorm that pushed up our record seasonal total to 152.0" (so far....)
An unexpectedly dire situation: we suddenly have a super typhoon,
#Nori
, forecast to strike the Philippines as a compact category 5 storm in less than 24 hours.
Suffice it to say that the Pac NW + adjacent Canada are facing what may be one of the worst heat waves in their history this weekend into next week. Multiple runs of multiple models are spitting out astonishingly high temps (see attached for just one example). 1/4
So much to say about this disaster, which is still resonating profoundly among local friends and colleagues, several of whom lost their homes. More than a few in the Boulder-area weather and climate community were hit hard, along with so many other folks.
🇨🇦 Canadian Heat Wave-3pm update:Another world record was set today 30 June!39.6C at Fort Smith NWT highest temperature ever recorded worldwide above 60N and Highest temperature ever recorded in the Northwest Territory. More south 46.1C provisional at Ashcroft.
Prior to this week, Canada's all-time high was 113F. Now it's 121.3°F.
Moreover, this is at one of Canada's high-quality Reference Climate Stations.
To break a national heat record by more than 8F over three days...words fail.
Just one year after extreme heat killed 18,000+ people in Italy, another historic heat wave looms. The
@wunderground
forecast of 107F (41.7C) at Rome on Tues 7/18 would set an all-time high for the Eternal City.
Even before an attribution study, we know
#Ida
checks off many of the key boxes of how climate change influences hurricanes, including:
--warmer oceans
--rapid intensification
--greater likelihood of Cat 4/5
Katharine Hayhoe says it best, as she so often does:
"Was it caused by climate change?" is the most common question when we hear about an extreme event. But when it comes to hurricanes, that's the wrong question. The right one is, "how much worse did climate change make it?" (thread)
Ten people were slaughtered today at my neighborhood grocery, just down the road. My heart goes out to their friends, colleagues, and loved ones. I've shopped at this store many hundreds of times over the past 30 years.
I can't possibly capture in a tweet how awful this feels.
Chief: Our hearts go out to all families impacted. There are 10 fatalities. She identified slain Police Officer Eric Talley, who was one of the first on the scene. She calls officer's actions "heroic."
In a case of incredible timing, the annual meeting of the National Weather Association—which includes many NOAA and NWS operational meteorologists—gets under way on Saturday 9/7 (in Alabama, as it happens). There will be much to discuss.
Note: Some levee segments along MS River in New Orleans may be as low as 18 feet. "Thus, a 20-foot river height could cause overtopping at some of those locations, something that has never happened in the city's modern history."
If Sunday's official forecast high of 120F at Rio Grande Village, TX, comes to pass, it will tie the all-time high temperature for the entire state of Texas, first recorded on August 12, 1936, in Seymour—at the height of the Dust Bowl— and again on June 28, 1994, in Monahans.
Pretty incredible to have the hottest day in recorded weather history at roughly 100 stations in France...and more than two months after the summer solstice.
🧵
Historic heat in France with 44.4C at Salindres and 44.2C at Siran,hottest in August in French history.
223 MONTHLY RECORDS today (nearly half were all time records) with a total of nearly 500 RECORDS broken so far
LONG POR ALL TIME HIGHS Thread:
Heads up: Florida's entire Gulf Coast north of Punta Gorda has never recorded a Category 4 hurricane landfall.
#Michael
is now predicted to reach Cat 4 strength just before it hits the FL Panhandle
Cat 4 Hurricane
#Dora
is passing more than 700 miles S of Maui, but Dora is teaming up with strong high pressure N of Maui to push 40-60 mph wind gusts into Lahaina, heating/drying as they flow downslope.
West coast of Maui in moderate to severe drought:
Major fires are burning across
#Maui
and the Big Island amid high winds. This video shows Lahaina's popular Front Street on fire - multiple structures have burned. No confirmed fatalities. We'll keep you posted on
@ABC7
February 2020 ends with zero rainfall in San Francisco. Only other Feb on record with no rain was way back in 1864 (records go to 1849-50). Also a big difference from Feb 2019 when almost 8" of rain fell.
Temps averaged well above normal (17th warmest Feb on record).
#SF
#CAwx
Canada's Year of Wildfire Hell continues. The capital of the Northwest Territories—roughly 250 miles south of the Arctic Circle—is now under a partial evacuation alert.
Eeeek.
#Hilary
's top sustained winds have rocketed from 40 mph to 105 mph in the past 21 hours. That's almost twice the strengthening rate that defines rapid intensification (35 mph in 24 hrs).
In the world's oldest weather database (Central England Temperature series, which began in 1659), the summer of 2018 is in the top 3, neck and neck with 1826 and 1976. Of the CET's 10 hottest summers since 1659, 8 have occurred since 1900 and 6 since 1976
Extreme heat is now breaking long-standing all-time records in Germany 🇩🇪
Cottbus station in the northeast of the country about 100 km from Berlin has set a new all-time heat record (for any month). The new record is 39.2°C (102.6°F).
Observations here began in 1888.
Here's the landmark 1975 paper in Science by the late Wallace (Wally) Broecker in Science—the first paper to use the phrase "global warming" in its title.
More perspective: the annual average rainfall at FLL (1991-2020) is 68.77". So the city apparently got about 1/3 of its annual rainfall in seven hours today. Desert climates can sometimes do this (rarely), but it's astonishing to see it happen in a moist climate like SoFla's.
An upper low morphing into a "
#Medicane
" is dumping titanic amounts of rain on central Greece, just days after northeast Greece was hit with the EU's worst fire of this century.
@CC_Yale
Not only could this be the driest month in contiguous-U.S. history (see below from
@BillKarins
), but it also seems to have an inside track on being the warmest.
We will likely have ~ ½ of the US Climate stations recording their driest October. Look at how many are
#1
for the driest month-to-date! Could this be the driest month ever recorded in the Lower 48? Not much will fall from the sky over the next 7 days either.
Another reminder of how truly unusual
#Florence
is: No hurricane on record within 200 miles of Florence's location on Friday has come close to the U.S. East Coast before. Unusual paths can produce outcomes that history doesn't prepare us for.
Lihue has set or tied its record high on the last 17 consecutive days. That's likely unprecedented for any longstanding U.S. observing site. (Records at Lihue go back to 1905).
Instead of weakening toward an El Niño-like state, the temperature contrast across the tropical Pacific has been strengthening toward a La Niña-like state for decades now. Why, and what's it mean?
@CC_Yale
Painful irony w/Helene's colossal damage in Asheville: the city recently placed
#3
on a list of US cities most likely to experience "climate migration". Asheville summers are cool by Eastern standards, and annual avg precip (~36") is low for the region.
If the latest NHC forecast comes to pass,
#Florence
will be the only hurricane on record to make a Cat 4 U.S. landfall so far north. The dramatic slowing on Friday, and the implied risk of extreme rainfall, is the other very concerning detail on this map.
Pleased to announce that Weather Underground co-founder Jeff Masters and 'Rough Guide to Climate Change' book author Bob Henson joining as regular authors for
@CC_Yale
After watching daily weather maps for many years, it's not often that an emerging pattern stops me in my tracks. This one is just plain, flat-out, take-no-prisoners weird! And awfully El Niñoish, given the moderate/strong La Niña conditions now in place. 🤔
#Ida
is barely a blip on some of the highest-profile news websites right now. That will change. Still, we're going into a weekend, and Ida will be competing with Afghanistan and COVID. Simultaneous big stories are always a media challenge.
How often do you see a high temperature anywhere that's 64°F above normal?? Omolon, Russia, smashed its all-time Jan. record with Monday's high of 3°C (38.4°F). Average daily high this time of year in Omolon is -32°C (-25.6°F).
Extrémité est de la
#Sib
érie ce 29 janvier : plusieurs localités > 0°C.
3.0°C à Omolon, RECORD MENSUEL et +35°C/normale ! (cf. graphe)
Localement 4 à 6°C, comparable aux 5.4°C observés à Montauban, France, ce lundi ! souvent +15 à +35°C/normales sur la région.
Great visualization of today's record-smashing 24°C (75°F) reading in Tofino, British Columbia (Vancouver Island). It's an unprecedented temp for any date outside the May-to-October window.
This might put the Tofino stat in a better visual perspective, temperature approximately 5 standard deviations above normal for March 19th (CYAZ). This temperature would also beat a couple daily records in the month of June. (Graph:
@datawithZ
)
#BCheat
#Adelaide
is now the hottest capital in Australia, having just reached 46.6C at 3:35pm, beating the previous record in
#Melbourne
of 46.4
@BOM_Vic
More records: Whyalla 48.5 (prev. record 48.0), Leigh Creek 46.9 (prev. 46.3), and Port Augusta 49.1 (prev. 48.9)
#heatwave
Disruptive tidal flooding that now affects the U.S. Gulf and Atlantic coastlines on 3-6 days per year will strike as often as 80-180 days a year by the 2040s, according to a major report from NOAA
Given the absurdly warm sea surface temperatures between Bermuda and Atlantic Canada, I can't help wonder if an event this far from average (10 standard deviations?!) would be virtually impossible w/out AGW. Post-storm research should help tell us.
To this in perspective, a pressure of 930mb at this latitude would equate to a standard deviation pushing 10 sigmas below normal. It's hard to state how anomalous this event will be for the Canadian Maritimes.