Another system could form over the Gulf or northwestern Caribbean later this week into next weekend, but models for now keep it weak and messy. The Atlantic meanwhile is quickly making up for lost time. My latest on a busy tropics in today's newsletter ⬇️
I'm not sure how many truly grasp what just happened tonight with Hurricane
#Ian
. It went through a full eyewall replacement cycle, hardly blinked, grew by 50% (as measured by its RMW), and delivered the 3rd highest storm surge since 1913 to Key West in the process. Just wow.
The Atlantic Ocean has a lot to say right now. And none of it is particularly good. My take on the deep Atlantic heat – which blows May 2005 out of the water – how it could impact hurricane season, and how it's affecting us today via
@CC_Yale
A rare and sobering sight tonight in the Central Pacific, as Hurricane
#Lane
becomes only the 6th recorded Category 5 hurricane in this part of the Pacific, and the nearest to
#Hawaii
a Cat 5 hurricane has ever been observed.
#hiwx
We can squabble over what's behind the rapid Atlantic warming, but it's truly extraordinary to see waters in the Main Development Region of the tropics as warm in June as they typically are the first week of *September*. An undeniably big player this hurricane season.
Hurricane
#Lee
is in elite company tonight. Fewer than 1% of all tropical cyclone "fixes" ever attain Category 5 strength. Lee is the farthest southeast we've ever observed a Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic since records began 172 years ago. Lorenzo (2019) the farthest east.
I know others have tweeted something similar, but to see a catastophic Category 5 hurricane closing in our 3rd most populous state is wildly unnerving.
#Dorian
is already a disaster for so many tonight. Please, please heed the warnings of local officials in the hours ahead.
The Gulf of Mexico this week is the hottest it's been at any point in any year on record by a wide margin. Weekly averaged Gulf sea surface temperatures have never broken 87°F but this week topped 88°F, an astonishing 1.4°C (2.6°F) above the 1991-2020 average.
This is woefully dishonest. This was taken from a C-17 ~40 min from Oahu, not CA (and not by Peter Singer). The glow is from a sun angle below the horizontal plane illuminating shallow altocumulus clouds. Not fires. Not lava. Thankfully I don't believe everything on the twitters.
The last frame of this satellite loop of rapidly strengthening Hurricane
#Otis
is numbing. It's intensifying at a rate I've not seen — faster than satellite estimates can keep up with using practical constraints. Nearing Cat 5 on approach to Acapulco, Mexico. Horrific scenario.
Sea surface temperatures along Hurricane Beryl's track are running at record or near record levels for the week, with a deep reservoir of ocean fuel. Waters are as hot as they are typically are in late August and September, no doubt a big player in Beryl's record June intensity.
Sea surface temperatures across the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) — where most of our Category 3 or stronger hurricanes form during the peak months of hurricane season — are as warm today in mid-February as they typically are in middle July. Incredible.
The National Hurricane Center is calling
#Otis
a "nightmare scenario."
"This is an extremely serious situation for the Acapulco metropolitan area...There are
no hurricanes on record even close to this intensity for this part
of Mexico."
Heavy words tonight from
@EricBlake12
For only the third time on record (since 1851), 3 Atlantic tropical cyclones formed over 24 short hours (TD6, Emily, Franklin). The historic tropical cyclone outbreak this weekend was matched only by August 22, 1995, and August 15, 1893.
#hurricanes
To put into perspective Ian's storm surge forecast from
@NHC_Surge
, here are monthly maximum water levels for two of our longest-running
@NOAA
tide gauges in the Tampa/St. Petersburg area. In over 50 years, we've not observed anything resembling the surge flooding predicted.
Who could've guessed Washington County, Maine — the easternmost point in the contiguous U.S. bordering Canada — would be in the
@NWSNHC
forecast cone more than any other county in the U.S. this hurricane season (162 hr)? No conefalls for South Florida or Louisiana so far in 2023.
Remarkably, Hurricane Beryl remains a Category 4 tonight, which means it's been at Category 4 or 5 strength going on 84 hours. Only 11 other hurricanes in the satellite era (since 1966) have achieved such prolonged strength, with 10 of the 11 happening in September or October.
#Beryl
has maintained Category 4 or 5 strength for more than 77 consecutive hours (from Sunday Jun 30, 2024, 11:35 AM AST – today Jul 3, 2024, 5:00PM AST). Wondering where this ranks in longevity of Cat 4+?
Since 2004, we haven't observed a tropical or subtropical storm in the Gulf with as wide of a tropical storm wind field as Alberto's. In fact, in 20 years, we haven't recorded a storm this deep in the tropics with such a large breadth of tropical storm winds. Impressive stuff.
Only 5 major (Category 3+) hurricanes have been recorded in the Atlantic before the first week of July. Beryl would be the sixth and earliest this far east in the tropical Atlantic. There's never been a Cat 4 or 5 hurricane observed prior to July 8th (Dennis in 2005).
This radar loop (via
@markniss_
) is over 25 hours long. To face this duration of Category 4/5 hurricane conditions is inconceivable. My thoughts this evening are with all those devastated by this terrible storm.
#Dorian
#Bahamas
It's no stretch to say Super Typhoon
#Halong
this morning is one of the strongest storms observed *globally* since satellite records began in 1979. An extreme event, but thankfully no threat to land. (satellite via
@UWSSEC
)
It's astonishing to see a forecast for a major (Category 3+) hurricane in June anywhere in the Atlantic, let alone this far east in the deep tropics.
#Beryl
organizing in a hurry over the warmest waters ever recorded for late June. Hurricane Watches up for much of the Windwards.
8 weeks of persistent, record warm sea surface temperature anomalies stretching from the Canary Islands all the way to the Gulf of Mexico. Subtle changes since April have felt a little like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. Not great no matter how you slice it.
Of the 1,869 Atlantic storms recorded over the last 169 years, only 18 have recorded winds as strong or stronger than Hurricane
#Dorian
right now (175 mph). This is truly an historic storm.
We were in the eye wall of Cat. 4
#Hurricane
#Ian
for over 5 hours and the back side was the worst.
I haven't experienced anything close to this in over 30 years
@weatherchannel
20 years ago, this sunny day, high tide flooding wasn't a thing in Miami. Today, it happens a handful of times a year. By 2050 -- well within my lifetime --
@noaaocean
predicts fair weather flooding as often as 50-60+ days/year (once/week). This is our future.
#ClimateChange
To put Hurricane Lee's size into perspective,
@NWSNHC
estimates hurricane winds extend outward a remarkable 110 nm (127 miles) from its center. Since 2004, only four other hurricanes have had 64-kt wind radii as large — Ike (2008), Lorenzo (2019), Teddy (2020), and Sandy (2012)
As native New Orleanian, tropical meteorologist, and emergency manager who spends every day planning for the next big hurricane, my heart sinks when I see this. I don't know what tomorrow brings, but I do hope everyone finds shelter from the storm in the weary hours ahead.
The dearth of Saharan dust this June across the tropical Atlantic is exceptional. Compare the extent to a typical June, last June, or June 2020 for a recent dusty example. Dustiness explains ~35% of SST variability in the summer so less dust generally means a toastier Atlantic.
David has been forecasting this stuff for decades with the National Weather Service and is one of the best in the business. His allusion to rainfall totals from Harvey and Florence shouldn't be taken lightly.
#Hilary
#cawx
#nvwx
@AliciaMBentley
The resultant 5 day QPF is as extreme as you’d imagine, given the above. Pixel of 10”+. Note the broad 2-5” area, which includes spots like Death Valley and Las Vegas. This is a year or so for rain for them, on average. The Western equivalent of a Harvey or Florence.
Don't let anyone fool you. THE single biggest meteorological development today with
#Florence
is its now massive wind field. It's hard to overstate the significance of this. It will have major implications for the storm surge and damage potential. Do NOT let your guard down!
Despite all the Cat 5 chatter, this is the real headline in the hours ahead. An unthinkable
#surge
of saltwater will sweep ashore, causing widespread destruction across an incredible stretch of SE Texas and SW Louisiana -- the likes of which we haven't seen in a very long time.
Water levels are on the rise. Stations across Louisiana are currently reporting 1-3 foot storm surge
A 50 mph gust was recently recorded at the Freshwater Canal station
David has covered a lot of devastating storms, including Katrina. He's one of the best. Please keep him and all of our friends back in New Orleans in your thoughts as you go to bed tonight. They're going to need the help not just tomorrow, but in the long months ahead.
A weekly average Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperature anomaly greater +2.0°C (relative to 1971-2000 climatology) is exceptional -- in fact, it's the highest (absolute) anomaly of the satellite record for the Gulf. The warmth this Spring in the southeast U.S. is no coincidence!
The current outbreak of Saharan dust across the tropical Atlantic is the highest since at least early June 2022. Dust cover over the Atlantic in 2023 was the lowest since satellite records began in 2002. High dust can stifle hurricane formation and help cool down Atlantic waters.
This is a troubling forecast for
#Hawaii
. There are a million people on
#Oahu
alone, where no direct hurricane impact (of any magnitude) has been recorded. This isn't Florida. The landscape and infrastructure are different. Take this one seriously.
#Lane
The ongoing Saharan
#dust
outbreak across the tropical Atlantic is *by far* the most extreme of the MODIS satellite record -- our most detailed, continuous record of global dust back to 2002. Daily MDR AOD of 1.66 shatters previous daily record of 1.13 set July 31, 2013.
#SAL
Only one hurricane has ever been recorded in June east of the Caribbean in the deep tropics – the first hurricane of 1933, still the most active hurricane season on record by Accumulated Cyclone Energy or ACE.
Just 20 years ago, there was some question whether mesovortices even existed. Now we're seeing them regularly in splendid detail on satellite. Science is truly amazing.
181 mph at flight level (700 mb) on the
@NOAA_HurrHunter
pass just now on the northeast side of Hurricane
#Beryl
. We'll see what
@NWSNHC
says at 11 PM but these two pieces of evidence certainly suggest we now have a 160 mph Category 5 hurricane. (plot via
@InfoVizard
)
I’m going to bump this in the context of Hurricane
#Beryl
, which had max 0.5 km TDR winds of 155 kt and 2.0 km winds of 147 kt. Both are consistent with previous 140 kt TCs in the best track. But NHC makes final call of course.
Tropical Cyclone
#Fani
, the equivalent of a Category 4/5 hurricane, is headed in the direction of Chilika Lake (yellow circle) in the state of
#Odisha
along the east coast of
#India
. This is an extremely storm-surge prone part of the world with a long history of deadly storms.
The
@53rdWRS
Air Force Hurricane Hunters noting "extreme turbulence and frequent lightning" in their last pass through the northeast side of Hurricane Beryl. Both are indicators of a quickly strengthening storm. Not a ride for the faint of heart!
13 years ago today this was the last pre-
#Katrina
front page of
@NOLAnews
. I found this in post-Katrina floodwaters (still in the newspaper bag) and later had it framed.
The western Caribbean can be a breeding ground for strong hurricanes in October. Waters typically peak this time of year and this week they're the warmest on record, topping 87°F (30.6°C) for the first time. Nothing in the models now, but a region to watch next month.
Video beginning to trickle in of the damage in Acapulco in the wake of Category 5 Hurricane Otis. The high-rise damage is extreme along with the defronding of hearty palms. Really sobering to see this level of hurricane damage in such a densely populated urban corridor.
#Mexico
With this landfall statement,
#Dorian
's winds are estimated at an astounding 185 mph. Only 4 storms on record (since 1851) in the Atlantic have estimated winds of 185 mph or higher:
Allen (1980) - 190 mph
Wilma (2005) - 185 mph
Gilbert (1988) - 185 mph
1935 Labor Day - 185 mph
Out-of-season tropical formation is FAR more unusual in the eastern Pacific than in the Atlantic. No tropical system has ever been recorded prior to May in the eastern Pacific (since records began in 1949).
@NHC_Pacific
giving 50/50 odds of a January first.
Here are first formations by year for tropical cyclones in the eastern North Pacific (east of 140°W) since recordkeeping began in 1949. Tropical Depression One-E this morning is easily the earliest eastern Pacific tropical cyclone on record (by 2 weeks).
#hurricanes
#climatology
It's wild just how warm the western Caribbean is headed into November. Weekly sea surface temperatures are about as warm today as any previous time of year prior to 2023. And we're a full month and a half removed from the typical mid-September climatological peak. Astounding.
The tropical North Atlantic has seen the second dustiest July so far since continuous satellite records began in 2002. Air quality has been especially poor off western Africa and over the Cabo Verde Islands. We've been talking a lot about dust, but it's certainly not unwarranted.
Good riddance to one of the most destructive hurricane seasons on record. A debt of gratitude to all the hard-working first responders, emergency managers, disaster relief groups,
@NWS
@NWSNHC
meteorologists, and survivors working to rebuild their communities.
Extra special to be able to show our amazing little girl one of our favorite spots for the first time. Couldn't have asked for a more beautiful weekend!
Sure looks like we'll be officially done with El Niño by the end of June or start of July. Then on to La Niña as hurricane season hits its stride. Here's the daily progression of the Niño 3.4 Region anomalies since the beginning of the year.
The experienced forecasters
@NWSTallahassee
not mincing words on
#Idalia
in today's area forecast discussion. If you live in Florida’s Big Bend from Apalachicola east - including inland areas like Tallahassee or Perry - don't sleep on this one. Within about 24 hours of the worst.
What an awful satellite picture to wake up to this morning. This is an extremely dangerous and potentially catastrophic
#hurricane
. For those in the path of
#Laura
, final preparations should be rushed to completion. My thoughts are with our friends in Louisiana and Texas today.
Yet another direct strike to U.S. citizens from a catastrophic storm, this time in the Pacific.
#Saipan
in the very worst part of this ferocious Category 5 equivalent Super
#Typhoon
.
#Yutu
This is a remarkable satellite of Beryl scraping the southern shores of Jamaica with what appears to be increasing organization. Mountainous terrain may be giving convection a boost in the northern eyewall while tugging the center closer to the island. (loop via
@TropicalTidbits
)
With 155 mph winds, Hurricane
#Ian
teetering on becoming only the fifth Category 5 hurricane to strike the mainland U.S. on record (Cat 5 starts at 157 mph). Whether it does or doesn't is of no consequence or comfort for communities in the path. Catastrophic impacts regardless.
Almost without precedent in the modern era is a northeastward moving Cat 2-3 hurricane coming ashore within 100 miles of Tampa. Gladys (1968), Easy (1950), and the 1921 Tarpon Springs hurricane all brought big surge flooding. Gently sloping seafloor nearby a big surgemaker.
#Ian
.
@NOAA
just issued its most aggressive pre-hurricane season outlook since such forecasts began in 1999, calling for 17-25 named storms, 8-13 hurricanes, and 4-7 Category 3+ hurricanes. Administrator
@RickSpinradNOAA
commenting "This season is looking to be an extraordinary one."
Per
@NWSNHC
on Hurricane
#Debby
: "the slow forward speed is likely to cause potentially historic rainfall across southeast Georgia and South Carolina, with an increasing likelihood of catastrophic flooding."