Sam Lillo @splillo Twitter profile

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

5 years

Because the gaslighting is getting real strong now, and it's all too easy to start questioning reality, here is every forecast cone ever drawn by the NHC for #Hurricane #Dorian . Plus an arbitrarily-chosen state labeled.

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

3 months

Aurora over Prague!!

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

28 days

It took #Beryl 42 hours to go from a tropical depression to a major hurricane, on June 30th. This has been done 6 other times in Atlantic hurricane history. And the EARLIEST date this was achieved before was ... September 1. SEPTEMBER!

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

4 years

Pearl St. Boulder, CO on September 8th. It was 97 degrees here two days ago.

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

4 months

We drove 13 hours to Texas, and 13 hours back (amazingly zero return traffic), for a 4-minute experience. And I do not say this lightly — it was worth it.

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

3 years

Every NHC forecast for Ida. One might say they're pretty good at their jobs.

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

2 years

Casper, WY dropped from 27ºF to 3ºF in 15 minutes.

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

3 years

One more picture from 36W #COwx

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

5 years

Winner of best wrapping paper at the NOAA PSD holiday party

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

4 years

Delta just went from 35mph tropical depression to 130mph category 4 hurricane in 30 hours! I can't find any other storm on record in the Atlantic that has achieved this feat. The next largest 30-hour intensification from tropical depression is Celia 1970: 35mph to 115mph.

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

28 days

I was unaware of the existence of this color name, nor did I know this was the color of tornado season. But am I painting my bathroom this color now? You bet I am.

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

27 days

Hurricane #Beryl intensified from a tropical depression to a 105kt (120mph) category-3 in 42 hours, and 115kt (130mph) category-4 in 48 hours. Here's how that intensification compares to all tropical depressions on record in the Atlantic. Unprecedented barely covers it.

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

5 years

In the last 24 hour, Hurricane #Dorian intensified from 130kt to 160kt ... in fact it did this in under 9 hours. Rapid intensification is an impressive enough feat, but becomes extremely rare from high initial intensities. From 130kt, it is unprecedented in the Atlantic.

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

5 years

Here comes the trough

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

3 years

#Ida is the furthest north hurricane on record in the Atlantic to deepen 50mb in 24 hours or less.

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

6 years

Finally got around to checking this out. The NHC 5-day forecast for #Florence is indeed the strongest they have ever projected an Atlantic tropical storm in the last two decades.

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

4 years

Here's a map of the amount of time spent in the 5-day NHC forecast cones so far in 2020. Louisiana has had a cumulative of THREE WEEKS in the cone this year! And now we have TD 28 tracking toward the same area.

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

7 years

This figure really says it all. #Ophelia is a huge outlier from the typical envelope of major hurricane tracks in the Atlantic

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

3 years

Who honestly believes it's New Years Eve? It's March 670th, 2020.

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

3 years

#cowx

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

3 years

The backside of this line of storms is spectacular

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

7 years

The final advisory for #Harvey . A touching sign-off from the NHC. The incredible dedication during this storm should never be forgotten.

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

3 years

September 8th and April 19th in Boulder, CO

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

2 years

This is an unprecedented NHC forecast. #Ian

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

2 years

Duration of hurricane-force winds in Ian 2022 vs. Charley 2004. Size and speed matter.

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

2 years

Hurricane Ian intensified by 30kt in 12 hours last night, while already a cat-3/4. At its location, there's no record of a storm this strong, strengthening *even at all* any further. Rapidly intensifying major hurricanes at landfall is a terrible theme in the last few years.

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

4 years

Approaching 10 inches of snow with a wind chill sitting at 1 degree right now in Boulder.

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

3 years

Dear @Tulane , Here is every forecast cone issued by the NHC up to yesterday evening. The consistency over eastern Louisiana is immaculate. I trust you can find yourselves on a map, but maybe that was the original problem.

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

5 years

Politics aside, it is unacceptable for the President of the United States to be sharing and discussing outdated forecast maps for Dorian while the hurricane is *currently* having dangerous impacts in the Carolinas.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

5 years

Just as I said, Alabama was originally projected to be hit. The Fake News denies it!

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

4 years

Hurricane Iota has intensified 85 kt (100 mph) in 36 hours. 8 storms have done this in 169 years of records prior to 2020: Labor Day 1935, Camille 1969, Andrew 1992, Rita 2005, Wilma 2005, Felix 2007, Matthew 2016, Maria 2017 3 storms in the last two months: Delta, Eta, Iota

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

2 years

That 7-day leadtime

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

5 years

Using recon data & satellite center fixes, here are wind duration swaths by category for #Dorian , zoomed in on Grand Bahama and Abaco Islands. As it stalled out, portions of the islands endured: hurricane-force winds for over 36 hours, cat 2 for >24 hrs, cat 3 for 6-12 hours!

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

2 years

I know I've become a broken record, but this is not something you see from a LIM everyday. Large region of >95% warm probs (*ensemble mean* anomalies of 5C+) at weeks 3-4 lead-time. The Pacific NW to Intermountain West and N Plains are going to BAKE through to early Sept.

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

2 years

Every NHC forecast and cone issued for Hurricane Ian.

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

3 years

This is definitely a map worth saving

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

5 years

At taco bell, the guy behind the counter: "Weather doesn't really scare me. I've been analyzing the last few days and it hasn't really been all that hot or cold, so I'm not worried about today." I can't. I almost screamed.

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

8 years

@wxjay @OUWXDoc @millennialmitch we can drop all terminology and just agree the storm "gets wicked strong wicked fast"

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

3 years

This appears to be one of the best-verified high-end category 4 landfalls ever.

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

3 years

Fact is, this is 7 days out now, with pretty impressive consistency among NWP in producing, in *multiple ways*, an historic East Coast cyclone. Consider me increasingly intrigued.

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

6 years

At the daily meeting of NWP: ECMWF - "Okay group, what haven't we thrown at them yet for the end of October?" CMC - "How about, wait for it, we take a Pacific hurricane and turn it into a Great Lakes blizzard?" GFS - "I'm on it."

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

4 years

Updated and corrected chart with the latest best track intensity for Hurricane Delta. This is the intensity trajectory of all tropical depressions in the Atlantic since 1851, with a few familiar outliers labeled, and now Delta, setting new records over the last 12 hours.

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

4 years

Okay this is something ... Eta just intensified from 35kt to a 115kt cat-4 in 36 hours. Let's look at all Atlantic TCs *any time of the year* starting at 35kt or lower. I did this and saw only ONE storm that was stronger at 36 hours ..... Remember Hurricane Delta?

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

3 years

#Henri is expected to slow to a crawl just as it's making landfall in New England. This is exceptionally rare, and has major ramifications with impacts. The NHC forecast has Henri moving around 5 to 6kts over Rhode Island. The *slowest on record* for a hurricane there is 26kt.

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

3 years

Colorfill corresponds to density of Snapchats, and also rate of new COVID cases. RIP Boulder.

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

5 years

For a hurricane that invited a lot of postulating on the forecast track, the NHC was remarkably consistent. (a thread)

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

3 years

This is likely worst case scenario underway.

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

5 years

I think it's safe to say, the SPC crushed it today.

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

4 years

5 years ago today, President Obama dropped by the NHC and participated in the forecast process. No sharpies were used in this forecast.

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

5 years

Here is the total duration any given location has spent inside the radius of maximum wind, so far. Portions of Grand Bahama are around 10 to 15 hours. Approaching 20 hours just offshore. And #Dorian continues to sit stationary. (h/t @burgwx for suggesting this viz)

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

4 years

Updated map of time spent in NHC 5-day forecast cones in 2020. Entire US coastline has been covered, most for at least 5 days. Louisiana has spent over 3 weeks in the NHC cone. Eta bumped up the Florida peninsula to over a week.

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

4 years

Satellite views of Teddy this morning are definitely getting saved.

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

5 years

549 tornado reports so far in the last 30 days ... Incredible.

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

3 years

Ida is looking even better on satellite *after* landfall 🤨

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

3 years

Up to 54 tornado reports now for last Wednesday, and a 45%+ PPH contour has emerged. Patience.

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

2 years

And how bout that 8-day leadtime

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

3 years

It’s 2021, with one of the higher-end confidence hurricane forecasts in terms of both track and intensity you could ask for, starting days ago. This country’s performance in emergency preparedness and response is truly abysmal sometimes.

Jessica Williams

@jwilliamsNOLA

3 years

Cantrell: We don't have the time to implement contraflow. Therefore the city cannot pivot to a mandatory evacuation, because we don't have the time. #NOLA

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

5 years

That Fibonacci spiral though.

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

4 years

Alright here's the historical context for a 50mph (45kt) sub/tropical storm off the coast of Portugal.

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

2 years

Latest NHC forecast for #Earl strengthens it to a 130mph category 4 hurricane over the central open Atlantic. This is currently uncharted territory for category 4+ hurricanes, with zero such cases on record northeast of 32ºN/58ºW.

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

5 years

We have you surrounded! Come out with your tornadoes unwrapped!

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

3 years

Umm… south of Broomfield, CO, looking west

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

5 years

@TARCweather Sharpie.

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

3 years

#Ida 's winds have intensified 40kts (45mph) in 11 hours. Only 17 hurricanes on record in the Atlantic have strengthened 40kt in 11 hours or less. 3 of them were last year.

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

6 years

Michael will be a category 3 hurricane in Georgia. Making it only the 4th major hurricane in their history. And the other 3 were all in the 1800s. And it passed over Florida first.

Sam Lillo

@splillo

6 years

#Michael could be one of #Georgia 's strongest #hurricanes . And it didn't even make landfall there.

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

3 years

Per capita, Louisiana currently has the second most people hospitalized for covid in the US. And the highest number of people in the ICU. And a major hurricane landfall in two and a half days. (plots by @burgwx )

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

4 years

I had a script to plot the distance between Hurricane Iota and Hurricane Eta. As of 00 UTC, that distance is zero. They are virtually in the same location, 13.5 days apart: Eta a cat 4, Iota a cat 5, a few miles from landfall in Nicaragua.

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

5 years

A hurricane slinky: Track and radius of maximum winds for #Hurricane #Dorian , using the satellite estimates from ARCHER () Thanks for the suggestion @RyanMaue !

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

5 years

"AccuWeather predicts there will be 1,075 tornadoes in 2019" You cannot possibly be serious with this.

Breaking Weather by AccuWeather

@breakingweather

5 years

AccuWeather projects a higher frequency of severe weather risks in the traditional Tornado Alley this season. The states to be impacted the most will include Oklahoma, Kansas, and parts of Texas and Nebraska:

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

3 years

Colorado wind storms are not unusual. But when only an inch of snow falls for the first half of winter with months of record high temps, an extension of fire season is unfortunately unsurprising. The climate change crisis isn’t just the future, it’s the present.

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

4 years

With the formation of Theta (the 29th named storm, and 8th Greek letter used), the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season sets a new record for most storms in a year, beating 2005.

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

2 years

You okay Mobile?

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

3 years

The winter-cancel forecasts for February are in danger.

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

4 years

All of the recon flight level wind observations below 600mb so far in 2020: a total of 119,252 points. There have been 237,920 obs including upper levels. Fastest flight level winds recorded were 148kt (170mph) in Hurricane Laura. Plot made in collaboration with @burgwx .

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

2 years

Starting at day-7, every SPC outlook for today.

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

3 years

The points at which Tulane was put under a hurricane watch and hurricane warning, and where the storm was located at that time. Stop making excuses for your own lack of awareness and preparedness.

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

4 years

Track of Hurricane Laura 6 weeks ago, and the forecast track of Hurricane Delta overlaid. Current forecast landfall is just 12 miles from where Laura made landfall.

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

6 years

Date of the 75th tornado watch of the year: 2007 April 3 2008 March 8 2009 April 5 2010 May 1 2011 April 10 2012 March 29 2013 April 27 2014 May 11 2015 May 10 2016 May 26 2017 April 21 2018 August 26

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

3 years

Ida and Katrina, two devastating major hurricanes, 16 years and just a few miles apart.

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

6 years

Last year, #Harvey intensified 30kt and 35mb in the 24 hours up to landfall. This year, #Michael intensified 35kt and 46mb in the 24 hours up to landfall. These are nightmare scenario rapid intensification cases.

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

2 months

I’m usually never short of words, but all I can say is she said yes, and it was the happiest moment of my life. I’m so excited for this next chapter of our lives together ❤️

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

5 years

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

2 months

It’s hard to be more wrong in a tweet.

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

5 years

Southward wobble. This is some cruel joke. #Dorian refuses to pull away from Grand Bahama.

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

5 years

Am I seeing this right, or did the ERC really just happen that quick and smoothly?

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

5 years

Seven years ago, Hurricane #Sandy was making the hard left turn towards New Jersey. Here's the evolution of the track and NHC forecasts through its life, plotted with #Tropycal .

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

6 years

There are few sights in this world as simultaneously beautiful and terrifying as the sun rising on a rapidly intensifying hurricane. #Florence

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

5 years

Southward wobble shown here in the 30-minute ARCHER center fixes. Bartender really needs to cut off #Dorian

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

3 years

8 days apart. Crazy.

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

28 days

#Beryl has intensified by 65kt in the last 36 hours, and is now a major hurricane. IN JUNE. This level of rapid intensification has never happened in June before. Twice in July: Bertha 2008, Dennis 2005

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

5 years

Lightning in the northwest quadrant of #Dorian . Plus very quick symmetrization of the eyewall now. Assuredly in a period of rapid intensification. Plus heading toward the nocturnal convective max. Really making me wonder what we will be looking at by sunrise tomorrow.

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

11 months

At 12 UTC 9/7, #Hurricane #Lee had an intensity of 80kt. The NHC forecast initialized at this time (for the 15 UTC advisory), brings Lee to Category 5 intensity at 36 hours. This isn't on the edge of unprecedented — it is a massive outlier in the history of NHC forecasts.

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

4 years

Past EF-5 tracks

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

21 days

Signs of quick organizing in #Beryl ’s core. Next several hours will be a race between rapid intensification, and landfall. #txwx

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

2 years

Follow these 3 simple tricks, and you'll never be wrong on a snowfall forecast again! 1) Plus signs after each range — can always be higher! 2) Unlabeled colors — avoid being verifiable. 3) Legend that's inconsistent with other labels — ambiguity is the key to success!

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

4 years

Recon over the four days has done some truly incredible sampling of Hurricane Delta.

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

3 years

Year and date of all 165kt tropical cyclones on record around the world.

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

6 years

"is awarded annually to the most outstanding University of Oklahoma quarterback"

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

3 years

Ida will go down as one of the most impactful hurricanes in US history, from New Orleans to New York. It also had amazingly accurate and advanced forecasts and warnings. The past 7 days needs to be a benchmark interdisciplinary case study for sociologists and weather comms.

Kathryn Prociv

@KathrynProciv

3 years

Any other meteorologists just have ALL the wind taken out of their sails hearing people say the flooding "caught them by surprise"? @alroker flagged the tri-state flood risk Sunday & Monday. A HIGH RISK was issued yesterday. What more can we do? How can we better communicate?

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

3 years

I love my supportive parents

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Sam Lillo

@splillo

2 years

RIP inner eyewall. #Ian has outgrown it, and getting bigger now.

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