Meteorologist at CSU specializing in Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts. Avid runner, cyclist and hiker. Appalachian Trail thru-hiker in 2002.
The Atlantic currently has three named storms (
#Dorian
,
#Fernand
and
#Gabrielle
). This is the 4th year in a row that we have had 3+ named storms simultaneously at some point during the
#hurricane
season. During 2013-2015, there were 0 occurrences of 3+ storms simultaneously.
#Hurricane
#Otis
has intensified by 80 mph in the past 12 hours (from 65 mph to 145 mph). That's the fastest 12 hr intensification rate in the eastern North Pacific (to 180°) in the satellite era (since 1966), breaking the old record of 75 mph/12 hr set by Patricia in 2015.
#Laura
has rapidly intensified & now forecast to reach Category 4
#hurricane
intensity. Since 1950, there have been 7 August Category 4+ hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico:
Camille (1969), Allen (1980), Andrew (1992), Bret (1999), Charley (2004), Katrina (2005), Harvey (2017).
#Beryl
is now a
#hurricane
- the farthest east that a hurricane has formed in the tropical Atlantic (<=23.5°N) in June on record, breaking the old record set in 1933.
One reason why
#Hurricane
#Beryl
intensified to a Category 5 hurricane over two weeks earlier than any other Atlantic Cat. 5 on record is due to extremely high ocean heat content levels. Caribbean ocean heat content today is normally what we get in the middle of September.
#Franklin
's central pressure is down to 926 hPa - the lowest central pressure for a
#hurricane
this far north (29°N) in the open Atlantic (e.g., not Gulf of Mexico) on record. Atlantic pressure records have been recorded consistently since 1979.
#Hurricane
#Beryl
has intensified to a Category 5 hurricane with max winds of 160 mph - the earliest calendar year Atlantic Category 5 hurricane on record. The prior record was Hurricane Emily on July 17, 2005 at 0UTC.
#Bret
has formed in the central tropical Atlantic - the farthest east that a tropical storm has formed in the tropical Atlantic (south of 23.5°N) this early in the calendar year on record.
#Laura
continues to strengthen and is now a Category 4
#hurricane
with max winds of 140 mph. Laura is now the strongest August hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico since Katrina (2005).
#HurricaneLaura
Over the last 12 hours,
#HurricaneDorian
has traveled only ~40 miles (~3.3 miles per hour) across Grand Bahama island. It is now moving west at only 1 mph. The long-duration impacts of
#Category5
#Dorian
on Grand Bahama Island have been and will continue to be devastating.
#Fiona
's central pressure is down to 932 hPa - the lowest pressure for a
#hurricane
this far north (30.8°N) in the open Atlantic (e.g., excluding the Gulf of Mexico) in the satellite era (since 1979).
#Hurricane
#Beryl
is now a Category 4 hurricane with max winds of 130 mph - the earliest calendar year Atlantic Category 4 hurricane on record. Old Atlantic record for earliest Category 4 hurricane was Hurricane Dennis on July 8, 2005 at 0UTC.
#HurricaneDorian
has now been a named storm for 12 days - the 15th named storm forming in August to last 12 or more days in the satellite era (since 1966).
Map showing all Category 4-5
#hurricane
landfalls in the continental US on record (since 1851).
#HurricaneLaura
’s landfall in SW Louisiana is the lone Category 4-5 in that part of the state.
#Laura
's maximum sustained winds have increased from 75 mph to 125 mph in the past 24 hr. That's the largest 24-hr rate of intensification (50 mph in 24 hr) for a tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico since Karl in 2010 (65 mph in 24 hr).
#hurricane
#HurricaneLaura
#Hurricane
#Ida
's pressure is down to 935 hPa. Only two
#hurricanes
on record have made landfall in Louisiana with a pressure this low: Katrina (2005, 920 hPa) and Last Island (1856, 934 hPa). Lower pressure equates to a stronger hurricane.
#Hurricane
#Beryl
's pressure has fallen to 944 hPa - the lowest by a hurricane in the eastern Caribbean (8-20°N, 75-60°W) since Hurricane Maria (2017). Lower pressure = stronger storm.
For the first time in the satellite era (1966-onwards), the entire North Pacific (e.g., western North Pacific, central North Pacific, eastern North Pacific) has had no named storm (e.g., tropical storm or
#hurricane
) activity from June 1 - July 3.
#HurricaneIan
has rapidly intensified overnight & now has maximum sustained winds of 155 mph. Only 4
#hurricanes
on record have made continental US landfall w/ max winds of 155+ mph:
Labor Day (1935): 185 mph
Camille (1969): 175 mph
Andrew (1992): 165 mph
Michael (2018): 160 mph
Today's ocean heat content in the Atlantic Main Development Region for
#hurricanes
is typically reached on August 1st. We're currently running about 2.5 months ahead of schedule.
#Hurricane
#Beryl
is now a major, Category 3 hurricane with max winds of 115 mph - the first June major hurricane east of the Lesser Antilles on record.
#Delta
has intensified by 70 mph (from 40 mph to 110 mph) in its first 24 hours since becoming a named storm. This is the most intensification in a 24 hour period for an October Atlantic named storm since Wilma in 2005.
#hurricane
#Franklin
and
#Idalia
are forecast to be major
#hurricanes
at the same time on Wednesday. If that verifies, it will be only the 3rd year on record (since 1851) where the Atlantic has had simultaneous major hurricanes in August. The other two years are: 1886 and 1893.
#Zeta
is now a Category 2
#hurricane
with max winds of 100 mph - the latest Category 2+ hurricane in the western Gulf of Mexico (west of 90°W) on record.
#Elsa
is now a
#hurricane
- the first of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season to date. The 1991-2020 average date for the first Atlantic hurricane formation is 14 August.
Fifteen years ago today,
#Hurricane
#Katrina
made landfall in Louisiana and then in Mississippi as a Category 3 hurricane. ~1500 fatalities and over $100 billion dollars in damage from the storm.
#KATRINA15
For the 2nd time on record, the Atlantic has 5+ tropical cyclones (tropical depression (TD) or stronger) simultaneously:
#Hurricane
#Paulette
, TD
#Rene
, Tropical Storm
#Sally
, Tropical Storm
#Teddy
and TD21. Other time was from September 11-14, 1971.
#HurricaneLaura
's maximum winds have increased by 65 mph in 24 hours (from 75 mph to 140 mph). That's the fastest 24-hr wind intensification for an Atlantic tropical cyclone since
#Hurricane
Maria in 2017.
Atlantic seasonal
#hurricane
forecast from
@ColoradoStateU
calls for very active season: 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes & 5 major hurricanes. Extremely warm tropical Atlantic and likely
#LaNina
are the primary reasons.
#HurricaneDorian
has now generated more Accumulated Cyclone Energy than 9 full Atlantic
#hurricane
seasons since 1950: 1972, 1977, 1982, 1983, 1986, 1987, 1991, 1994 and 2013.
Thirteen years ago today, Hurricane Katrina made landfall in Louisiana as a Category 3 hurricane. ~1500 fatalities and over $100 billion dollars in damage.
Atlantic seasonal
#hurricane
forecast from
@ColoradoStateU
calls for above-average season: 17 named storms, 8 hurricanes & 4 major hurricanes. Reasons for above-average forecast include predicted lack of
#ElNino
and warmer than normal subtropical Atlantic
For the first time on record, the Atlantic has had two major
#hurricane
formations in November.
#Iota
just became a major hurricane. Eta was a major hurricane earlier this month.
#HurricaneLaura
has continued to intensify and now has maximum winds of 150 mph. Only one
#hurricane
on record (since 1851) has made landfall in Louisiana with max winds that strong - The Last Island Hurricane of 1856 (also had 150 mph max winds).
Seasonal forecast from
@ColoradoStateU
increased & now calls for extremely active 2020 Atlantic
#hurricane
season: 24 named storms (including 9 that have already formed), 12 hurricanes (including 2 that have already formed) & 5 major (Cat 3+) hurricanes:
#Hurricane
#Beryl
currently is a Category 5 w/ max winds of 165 mph - the strongest July Atlantic hurricane on record, breaking old record of 160 mph set by Emily (2005). Prior record for earliest calendar year Atlantic hurricane with 165 mph max winds is Allen (1980) on 5 August
9
#hurricanes
on record (since 1851) made landfall in continental US with 150mph+ max wind intensity (
#Laura
's current intensity-150mph): Last Island(1856), Indianola(1886), FL Keys(1919), Freeport(1932), Labor Day(1935), Camille(1969), Andrew(1992), Charley(2004), Michael(2018)
#Laura
’s central pressure is down to 937 hPa. Only 3
#hurricanes
on record (since 1851) have made landfall in Louisiana with a central pressure of <=937 hPa: Katrina (2005, 920 hPa), Last Island (1856, 934 hPa) and Rita (2005, 937 hPa). Lower pressure = stronger storm
#Larry
is now a major
#hurricane
- the 3rd of 2021 Atlantic hurricane season (Grace and Ida were already major hurricanes). Only 3 years in satellite era (since 1966) have had 3 Atlantic major hurricanes by 3 September: 1969, 2004, and 2005.
#HurricaneDorian
is now forecast to be a Category 4
#hurricane
when it approaches the east coast of Florida. Since 1900, 8 Category 4-5 hurricanes have made landfall along the east coast of Florida - the most recent was Hurricane Andrew in 1992.
The Northern Hemisphere has yet to have its first named storm (e.g., tropical storm or
#hurricane
) in 2024. This is the first time since 1983 that the Northern Hemisphere has gone this late in the calendar year without a named storm.
Tropical Depression 4 has formed and is forecast to become
#Cindy
by tomorrow. If it does, it would be 2nd storm (
#Bret
already formed) to form in tropical Atlantic (south of 23.5N, east of 60W) this month. No other June on record has had >1 storm formation in tropical Atlantic.
Just how strong is Category 5 Hurricane
#Iota
? Its current central pressure of 917 mb is lower than Hurricane Katrina’s central pressure at the time of its strongest Gulf Coast landfall (Buras, LA. 920 mb). Lower pressure = stronger storm
Tropical Storm
#Beryl
has strengthened and now has max winds of 60 mph. Beryl is the strongest June tropical storm this far east (~47°W) in the tropical Atlantic (<23.5°N) on record.
#HurricaneLaura
has made landfall near Cameron, LA with max winds of 150 mph - the strongest
#hurricane
to make landfall in Louisiana since the Last Island Hurricane of 1856 (also 150 mph max winds).
For the first time on record (since 1950), the globe has had no major (Category 3+; >=111 mph winds)
#hurricane
/
#typhoon
formations from September 26 - November 10.
Supercell time lapse from our house in Highlands Ranch a few minutes ago. Large tornado on the ground just north of here. Currently hanging out in the basement
#Hurricane
#Sam
has intensified and now has max winds of 150 mph - the strongest hurricane this far east in the Atlantic (~62°W) this late in the calendar year on record.
Colorado State University has increased forecast & calls for extremely active 2024 Atlantic
#hurricane
season with 25 named storms (including Alberto,
#Beryl
, Chris), 12 hurricanes & 6 major hurricanes. Very warm Atlantic continues, while
#LaNina
likely.
#Eta
is forecast to become a Category 5
#hurricane
before landfall in Nicaragua. If that forecast verifies, it would be only the 2nd Atlantic Category 5 hurricane in November on record. The sole November Cat. 5 Atlantic hurricane on record is Cuba Hurricane of 1932.
Tropical Storm
#Nigel
has formed in the central tropical Atlantic - the 10th named storm to form in the Atlantic since August 20. That's the most named storms on record to form in the Atlantic between August 20 - September 16, breaking the old record of 9 named storms set in 2020
Only six Atlantic
#hurricanes
since 1950 have had stronger winds than
#HurricaneDorian
's current max winds of 175 mph: Allen (1980), Gilbert (1988), Mitch (1998), Rita (2005), Wilma (2005) and Irma (2017).
#Hurricane
#Beryl
continues to strengthen and how has max winds of 155 mph - the earliest Atlantic calendar year hurricane this strong on record. The only other July hurricane with max winds 155+ mph is Hurricane Emily (2005), which topped out as a Cat. 5 with 160 mph winds.
#Hurricane
#Debby
has made landfall near Steinhatchee, FL with max winds of 80 mph. Debby is the 4th hurricane to make landfall in Florida in August since 2000. The other three are: Charley (2004), Katrina (2005) and Idalia (2023).
#Hurricane
#Michael
's pressure continues to drop - now to 923 hPa. Only 4 hurricanes on record have hit the continental US with a lower pressure: Labor Day (1935), Camille (1969), Andrew (1992), Katrina (2005).
#Hurricane
#Lee
is forecast to reach a max intensity of 180 mph. Only seven Atlantic hurricanes in satellite era (since 1966) have had max winds >= 180 mph:
Allen (1980), Gilbert (1988), Mitch (1998), Rita (2005), Wilma (2005), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)
Three Atlantic named storms have formed today: September 18, 2020 -
#Wilfred
#Alpha
#Beta
. The only other time on record that the Atlantic had 3 named storm formations on the same calendar day was August 15, 1893.
#hurricane
#Beryl
is now a major, Category 3
#hurricane
with max winds of 115 mph - the 3rd earliest Atlantic major hurricane on record, trailing Alma (6/8/1966) and Audrey (6/27/1957).
Tropical Storm
#Chris
has formed in the Bay of Campeche - the 3rd Atlantic named storm of the 2024
#hurricane
season. On average, the 3rd Atlantic named storm forms on August 3rd.
For only the 7th year on record, the Atlantic has 2 hurricanes with 105+ mph winds simultaneously during August (
#Franklin
and
#Idalia
). Other years are: 1886, 1893, 1950, 1969, 1998, and 1999.
#Beryl
has intensified and now has max winds of 150 mph - the strongest an Atlantic
#hurricane
has been this early in the calendar year on record. Prior earliest calendar year 150 mph hurricane was Dennis on July 8, 2005.
#Sam
has now been a
#hurricane
for 10 days - the first Atlantic hurricane to be named on or after 23 September and last 10+ days as a hurricane since Inez in 1966.
#Franklin
has intensified by an impressive 45 mph in the past 10 hours. It now has max winds of 145 mph making it the strongest August
#hurricane
outside of the Gulf of Mexico since Dorian (2019).