Kieran Goodwin @kieranwgoodwin Twitter profile

Last Seen Profiles

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

1 year

1) This article explains some of the risks of shadow banks but misses a huge risk. It fails to mention that all private credit funds use leverage in order to be able to generate net returns of 8-10% to their investors. @boazweinstein

Banking Problems May Be Tip of Debt Iceberg

“Shadow banks” have grown rapidly in the past decade and, like banks, are exposed to risks from higher interest rates and a weakening economy.

www.wsj.com

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

4 months

1. I just read this book which is 3 years old so may be late to the party. It is a bit technical with many players so a tough slog if you are not familiar with credit markets but a must read for anyone involved in credit. some thoughts below:

The Caesars Palace Coup: How a Billionaire Brawl Over the Famous Casino Exposed the Corruption of...

The Caesars Palace Coup: How a Billionaire Brawl Over the Famous Casino Exposed the Corruption of the Private Equity Industry

www.amazon.com

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

10 months

A thread on some basic facts on CLO market: 1)The leveraged loan market is $1.7trn in size doubling in size in last 10 years. 70% of the loans are held by CLOs. Asset managers love issuing CLOs to boost AUM. IMHO, the biz is tough for all but a big few but that's another thread

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

7 months

The gentleman being interviewed is a friend of mine. We plays hoops together and besides being a very nice person, he is an elite baller for his age.

Midtown Rob

@midtown_rob

7 months

This is the old Wall Street guy I aspire to be

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

1 year

9) Forced selling into a market with zero liquidity would have wide ranging ramifications.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

1 year

2)The biggest and best managers get that leverage by using the CLO markets to get term financing. Therefore their assets (private loans) match their liabilities. However most managers get financing lines from the Street. Those lines are subject to strict COVENANTS.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

1 year

3) So while the financing lines might have a maturity which appear to match the assets (private loans), the financing can be REDUCED or PULLED if the private credit fund starts experiencing defaults in its loan portfolio.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

1 year

8)The results will be ugly and eye opening for the Street, PC fund managers and PC LPs. Additionally, the forced selling will be reflexive and cause more lines to be reduced and more forced selling.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

1 year

4)So a typical $1bn PC fund will make $2bn of private loans and thus borrow $1bn from the sell side. As defaults are realized, the Streets will enforce their covenants and make the fund pay back some portion of the line. Many funds are now fully invested and have NO CASH.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

1 year

7)Currently the street is not set up at all to help facilitate a forced sale risk transfer. However, chaos is the mother of invention when there is blood in the street. So the loans will be sold but the prices will be very distressed.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

4 years

The credit market's tremendous growth during the last 11 years was fueled by almost universal belief in some narratives. These narratives started as assumptions but over time became "undisputed truths". In my experience credit crises occur when these "truths" turn out to be false

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

7 months

@midtown_rob I am friends with this gentleman. I play hoops with him, and he can still ball. Sneaky good jumper off the dribble from 17 feet. Shocked that he is 72.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

1 year

6)But private loans to date rarely trade. The few trades that have happened are club deals (more than 1 lender). Much of the market is bilateral deals (1 lender) which means the borrower’s financials are not known to any other potential buyers.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

6 months

I have been investing in start-up and private companies for almost 25 years. Overall my record is mediocre at best, and I have now vowed to stick to areas where I do better (credit, special sitch, value, macro). Here are some lessons that I have learned:

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

1 year

5)So if a fully invested PC fund has its financing line cut by the Street. The manager will be forced to sell private loans to pay back the money borrowed on the line. The Street has little patience when they sense a position that they are financing is posing risk to them.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

1 year

1. Good article discussing the strain that higher rates put on the ability for levered PE-backed companies to cover interest expenses. Current all-in interest costs for middle market companies is around 12% given rise in LIBOR/SOFR.

Hedging Failure Exposes Private Equity to Interest-Rate Surge

Many buyout firms considered hedging against rising interest rates a waste of time and money. Their debt-laden companies are now paying the price.

www.bloomberg.com

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

4 months

A hill that I will die on: I don't care if we are talking public or private credit. If your a creditor at par, getting paid PIK interest sucks in the long run over enough different loans/bonds positions. The debtor is not paying you cash for a reason .. they can't afford it.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

1 year

same with HY bonds and Leveraged Loans vs Private Credit

John Arnold

@JohnArnoldFndtn

1 year

How a publicly traded company goes to zero vs how a privately held company goes to zero.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

1 year

Flattered to be interviewed by one of my favorite podcasters. Thank you @patrick_oshag

Kieran Goodwin - Imagination, Volatility, and the Pursuit of Alpha - [Invest Like the Best, EP.331]

Episode · Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy · My guest today is Kieran Goodwin. Kieran spent over two decades at the frontier of credit investing. During the global financial crisis, he...

open.spotify.com

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

1 year

"Gradually, then suddenly" are the words of Hemingway in The Sun Also Rises when a character is asked how he went bankrupt. This concept is key to understanding sudden volatility (change over time) both good and bad .. tech adoption, tipping points, revolution .. study calculus

Hamid

@hamids

1 year

This is an excellent visual!

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

1 year

Alpha in distressed debt investing is much harder to find now that Reorg Research leveled the playing field.

Kent Collier

@DDInvesting

1 year

“One of our analysts just messaged me that no fewer than 4 open laptops are currently on the Reorg homepage on the Hampton Jitney” I finally know I’ve made it.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

2 months

THE HARDEST RISK to manage in credit investing is assets/companies becoming obsolete. You can't fix the B/S of an obsolete asset Happens gradually then suddenly .. Today many office buildings and in the future perhaps some SAAS companies

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

4 months

If these deals keep getting more common, a good chance that a negative reflexivity kicks the snot out of the credit markets.

JUNK BOND ANALYST

@junkbondanalyst

4 months

New restructuring term just dropped. How long before the new “hunter-gatherer” tool, or as the great minds at Kirkland like to refer to them, new “technology” (lol), is implemented as a market standard in the distressed universe?

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

10 months

9)Just pointing out that a clustering of defaults with lower recoveries and some pull back from banks could cause a major market to freeze quickly and reflexivity works quickest in credit markets.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

2 years

!) SOFTBANK CDS $SFTBY could be the biggest tell if credit markets have a true meltdown. So far the widening has been orderly and new issue markets in HY and Lev Loans are open. This morning quoted at 440 bps +40 bps on the day Pretty wide for a credit rated Ba3/BB+

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

1 year

@KvetchMacro @boazweinstein The default cycle has started. Q1 of '23 was the highest number of defaults since '10. The interest rates on all loans is higher. Most private credit is floating rate which was great until the Fed raised rates.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

1 year

5. My point is that paying 12% for debt makes the path for success for middle market PE deals much narrower and the probability of defaults much higher. Rating agency cited in article thinks 15% of MM PE companies will not be able cover interest expense.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

6 months

4. If a company is willing to pay 13+% interest, they will default 80+% of the time. Make sure that your credit agreement is legit.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

5 months

My brother Liam is 50 today. He has been a SAT tutor, bartender 2x, magazine writer, PE analyst, CDS broker 2x, HF execution trader, day trader, and insurance salesperson. Currently, he is co-GP and co-operator of 4 car washes and has never worked harder.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

1 year

@pkan90 @boazweinstein The Street definitely does not want this market to implode but the Street will always save itself as a lender regardless of the ramifications for a market.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

4 months

7. Makes me think of Mike Vranos quote from mid 90s on RMBS market. “We're not trying to outsmart the smart guys; we're trying to sell bonds to the dumb guys.” When no dumb guys, game is lot harder.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

4 years

@RaoulGMI @dailydirtnap @TgMacro @CMcgarraugh @jimcramer @APompliano Raoul's brilliant comment that $BTC is the most reflexive set up that he has ever seen personally gave me more insight than anything that I have read or viewed concerning crypto. Here is my thought process:

Raoul Pal

@RaoulGMI

4 years

And then bitcoin will climb the wall of fear and eventually transition to scale the cliff of incredulity. This is the most reflexive set up I’ve ever seen in my life. Even wild eyed bulls will shake their heads in dismay. I won’t be easy to hold on.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

1 year

@FarinaccioSean @boazweinstein Shorting BDCs is a full time job. Lots of negative carry and risk of getting borrow pulled.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

3 months

S&P research article below on adjusted EBITDA aka EBITDA addbacks. They conclude that leverage is 2-3 turns higher two years later since adjustment not realized. How does that affects a company's ability to service debt? Quick thread: .

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

10 months

8)Japanese banks have massively reduced appetite as yields has risen in Japan. US Banks are still buyers but at wider levels. Any pressure on bank balance sheets or better opportunities in AAA securities like agency RMBS (historical wides) decreases appetite.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

5 months

I have had the good fortune of being invited as a guest on friends' private jets. Here is my take on proper PJ Etiquette: 1. Say "yes" and minimize your questions to dates and departure time. If you decline, you might not get asked again.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

4 months

8. Opinions on ethics aside, Apollo "lost" in the end but they still won because they demonstrated that they would whatever it takes to maximize their option as equity owner and raised $25bn for their next PE fund in '17 which was largestt ever.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

4 years

To me the most perplexing aspect to the $GME saga is that the company hasn't issues any shares/converts .. WTF .. to me that seemed like the only easy trade

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

9 months

Every good idea on Wall St becomes bastardized due to greed ... history rhymes

88888

@88888sAccount

9 months

its the golden age of private credit

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

10 months

5)However, equity index funds represent 30% of the equity market while CLOs own 70% of the loan market. Therefore when the CLO “machine” is turned off, issuing new leveraged loans becomes very difficult potentially causing a credit crunch.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

6 months

9. The older I get the more that I appreciate simplicity and liquidity in more own portfolio.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

4 months

6. Distressed investing's evolution is akin to professional poker. Once there were a few sharks and many fish and now many sharks pitted against other. Foot note to @CorneliaLake on analogy.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

10 months

2)CLO managers are buyers of incremental loans when they can successfully place the debt and equity tranches of a new CLO deal. So therefore, if CLO tranche spreads widen out in the secondary market due to selling pressure, the arbitrage of issuing a new deal fails to work.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

6 months

2. Realize you are a part-time amateur competing against smart pro's that are spending all their working time sourcing and vetting deals. Assume if you are seeing the deal than they have passed or would never even consider.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

10 months

3)CLO managers can’t place new CLO’s and therefore are not buyers of the new issue leveraged loans. Their decision is primarily based on the economics of the securitization as opposed to if they believe the leveraged loan market to be rich or cheap.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

3 months

The best piece that I have read about debt in a long time. And Housel is such an elegant and efficient writer.

How I Think About Debt

Japan has 140 businesses that are at least 500 years old.

collabfund.com

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

10 months

6)What would cause selling pressure in the secondary market for CLO tranches? Increased defaults. Defaults are up this year but still around 2% Lower recoveries of defaulted loans. Recoveries this year are around 40% as opposed to historically 65% but still a small sample size.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

1 year

@pkan90 @boazweinstein They have been amending and extending but the economy is slowing and the refinancing rate is much higher so defaults are happening.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

4 months

3. After Caesar's, every PE sponsor when experiencing stress in a port co asks themselves, "What would Apollo do?" If their creditors are not experienced with in or out of court restructuring, IMHO PE sponsors are going to have upper hand in extending their option .

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

6 months

7. Don't worry about not having enough exposure since you almost always get another chance to invest in the next round.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

6 months

5. If the founder's exit strategy is to sell to a strategic, pass.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

1 year

Jared never disappoints with his original insights.

Jared Dillian

@dailydirtnap

1 year

I've always found it interesting that people harbor animosity against banks but not insurance companies. Bank CEOs = millionaires Insurance CEOs = billionaires Anyone ever try to get a claim paid lately?

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

10 months

4)In this regard, CLO managers decision to buy is passive and binary in nature much akin to the equity index fund managers’ decision to buy or sell is solely based on inflows or outflows of funds.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

10 months

7)Buyers of AAA tranches leaving the market or decreasing appetite. The triple AAA tranche is the biggest tranche representing 40% of the CLO capital structure. Big banks are the primary buyers. Japanese banks have been some of the biggest buyers over the last 10 years

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

1 year

I can't think of a more basic measurement of risk for a bank's assets than DV01 which is the dollar value change of the assets for a 1 basis point move in interest rates. $SIVB's DV01 was around -$5mm per 1 basis point move which is massive. Did the regulators sign off on that?

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

6 months

10. If people know that you have some money, they will seek you out to invest in their company. Working on your delivery to be able to say "no" graciously is time well spent.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

4 months

4. Even the sharps in distressed can get tattoed. Some of players in Caesar's got burned by tactics used in J Crew bankruptcy and copied in Petsmart and NMG. TPG was sponsor in J Crew and Apollo's partner in CZR.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

4 months

2. This saga marked the beginning of a paradigm shift in distressed mkt. Balance sheet and skills required to be a successful distressed investor were dramatically raised. Very savvy players were pitted against Apollo and each other. If you weren't on the inside, good luck.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

5 months

A great listen .. Proud to call Sean a friend

Patrick OShaughnessy

@patrick_oshag

5 months

One of my favorite conversations in memory @seanbfeeney left finance to build THE budding restaurant group (Lilia, Misi, Fini) in NYC with chef Missy Robbins No matter what you do, this is worth your time I think their story will inspire everyone

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

2 years

6) However if private and public growth multiples keep contracting, Softbank could get ugly quickly. Besides a decent amount of debt, I suspect accounting practices would come under scrutiny. Therefore $SFTBY CDS is worth following.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

7 months

@midtown_rob Old man’s game .. 40 and over .. below the rim

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

6 months

6. 95% of start-ups need more money and take longer to become profitable than they originally project.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

6 months

1. Envy plays a much bigger factor in doing dumb investments in private marketts than public markets. Everyone is chasing the 1000x.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

4 years

@TgMacro @kofinas I could not agree more. I have been just lazy about signing up for Overtime! but this one forced my hand. @HiddenForcesPod makes me feel ignorant (in a good way) more than any other podcast and @radigancarter is a force of nature. Hard to overhype this episode.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

5 months

11. Thank the pilots/attendant by name. 12. Have cash handy to tip baggage handlers. 13. Show sincere gratitude to your host. Inspired by the OG PJ hitchhiker, JD

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

4 months

@junkbondanalyst Obviously, Apollo, god of the Sun, is the sponsor

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

1 year

@LaGrenouille22 @boazweinstein I am no longer a PM so I am not shorting BDCs. I think you need to be watching the screens full time to short BDCs.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

4 years

So to me all the major "fundamentals" of $BTC lend themselves to be very reflexive to positive price action .. Thank Raoul for the comment and motivation to increase my position.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

5 months

The range of tasks he has done has ranged from standing on street corner with sign to drive traffic to digging a ditch to negotiating with zoning boards. I think the upside is real in car washes but nothing at all passive about the investment .. need to execute HBD Liam!

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

4 months

A new day and a new knife fight: Does anyone have a name for this new "technology" (my favorite euphemism) to get around the prohibition of incurring new debt to repay debt? As this violence continues, won't losers start eschewing the credit market?

Invesco Battles Bain Over Debt-Deal Double-Cross

Matthew Brooks stared at the numbers glowing on his screen in disbelief. Somehow, a big slug of cash — some $92 million — was about to hit Invesco’s accounts.

www.bloomberg.com

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

4 months

5. Elliott won in Caesar's on many trades but particularly CDS trade but then were loser on Winstream CDS trade. GSO lost on CZR CDS trade but won on HOV CDS trade against Solus (who won on CZR trade by buying 1st and 2nd liens).

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

1 year

@HighyieldHarry As defaults pick up, recovery rates go down.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

1 year

4. Hard to grow EBITDA significantly without making capex investments but not much FCF available for investment. Yes, sponsor can cut costs but cost cutting is not without risk to top line revenues.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

2 months

Good report from @junkbondinvest on Chegg's risk of becoming OBSOLETE due to AI OBSOLESCENCE is the HARDEST RISK to hedge for CREDIT INVESTORS. While Chegg is technically not SaaS .. it is definitely a subscription so pretty close.

Chegg's $600 Million Question: Can It Outsmart Free AI Tools?

Reviewing Chegg's Busted Convertible Bonds Amidst its Fight for Survival

www.junkbondinvestor.com

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

6 months

@Melange_Anon word to your mother

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

6 months

3. Improving the quality of your deal flow is possible but it takes real time and effort.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

4 years

@jimcramer $GME needs to take one step at a time .. 1. hire more lawyers and accountants 2. issue 10-K 3. SELL STOCK

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

1 year

@dampedspring @nickgiva1 @super_macro @simon_ree @Mike_Taylor1972 @Citrini7 @LONGCONVEXITY Wow, I feel like I need to do more to live up to this honor. Thanks Andy. I feel like you should organize a dinner in NYC.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

3 years

From my 30 years of taking risk, I have observed that most decisions to hold a position after it experiences a 90% drawdown results in the best case dead money but many times a ZERO. You can't compound ZEROES. @tgmacro @dailydirtnap

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

1 year

@CorneliaLake I am sure find some people but thanks Judd for the very kind words.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

4 months

Great episode arguing that Fed liquidity is all that matters, and they have been adding liquidity. Howell argues that Treasury/Fed is already monetizing debt by issuing 80/20 bills vs notes as opposed to reverse which is normal.

‎Hidden Forces: Are Gold and Bitcoin Signaling the Return of Money Printing? | Michael Howell on...

‎Show Hidden Forces, Ep Are Gold and Bitcoin Signaling the Return of Money Printing? | Michael Howell - Mar 18, 2024

podcasts.apple.com

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

4 years

@hwfeinstein Their fiduciary responsibility is to make decisions based on what is best for the financial future of the company. And for them to sell 2mm shares at $200 or greater would not be very dilutive and be a huge help for their balance sheet. Thus helping their long term prospects.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

1 year

@LostFundamental @boazweinstein That is good question. I am assuming the $1.5trn is the gross number for all of PC which includes BDC's and middle market CLO's. So I don't know the amount of financing the Street has provided. But I am not that concerned for the Street as a lender.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

1 year

@UmangMVarma @boazweinstein Pricing of CLOs tranches are based on where AAAs price. Buyer universe is much smaller for AAAs than for IG as big MFs are not big buyers. Pre-GFC spreads got to L+50 but then balance sheet became scarce and spreads widened. US and foreign banks long bs became dominant buyer.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

2 years

@boazweinstein 5 year LEH CDS traded at 650 bps the Friday before it filed on Sunday

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

2 years

3)When gradually became suddenly, the credit market stop believing (credere = to believe). Seizing of credits markets makes the refinancing of exsiting debt for other levered companies extremely difficult which causes more defaults. Reflexivity!

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

4 months

I really enjoyed my conversation with Dean who asks great questions given his unique "vol" perspective on the market.

Alpha_Ex_LLC

@Alpha_Ex_LLC

4 months

here's the latest episode of the Alpha Exchange, a discussion with @kieranwgoodwin on distressed investing, alpha decay, crowding, CLOs and electronic credit trading. We covered some good ground here and I think you will value this conversation.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

2 years

2) Starting with S&L's in the late 80s. Most major default cycles have been triggered with a default/near default by a large issuer of debt with IG or crossover ratings. The default of what was considered a low risk credit shocks the market.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

2 years

4) Some examples which include sovereign debt: '90 S&Ls, Drexel '97 Korea and SE Asia '98 Russia and LTCM '01 Enron '02 WorldCom and Adelphia '05 GM and Airlines '08 Lehman, Real Estate and Financials '11 Greece '15 Energy and Commodities

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

3 months

So 6x goes to 8x since realized EBITDA is $37.5 mm as opposed to the aspired $50mm .. $300mm/ $37.5mm = 8x .. Company's interest cost is still $36mm and buffer is $1.5mm .. that is a tough spot to be in. SOFR staying at 5+% will in itself cause pain for PC.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

6 months

8. I have done best when I identify a problem that needs to solved and then found a company working on a solution.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

1 year

@nickgiva1 Great list of characteristics of a trader. One I would add is that a trader is always on the hunt for the potential for a squeeze (either forced buying or selling) which is another way of looking for asymmetric upside vs downside.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

4 years

6. In a world of low rates, Private Credit is able to produce steady returns of 10-12% with no volatility or defaults. "Money for nothin' and your chicks for free" are just song lyrics

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

7 months

@ogtriplesix @midtown_rob Scout’s honor .. he is elite for 72 .. can hold is own with guys 20 years younger with inflated senses of their abilities (like me)!

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

10 months

Shorting $BKLN is an option which has a had good year. Buying a levered position in 2 year notes like Drunkenmiller makes sense .. $TUA does this. I am invested in @boazweinstein 's Credit Tail Fund which is levered short HY vs long IG via CDS. Perhaps Boaz should offer as ETF.

Blackcat

@Blackcat_bln

10 months

@kieranwgoodwin is there any way to play this from an equity perspective?

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

4 years

@michaeljburry @michaeljburry what are your thoughts on the probability of the CCP commandeering the mining pools of China to coordinate a 51% attack with the goal of crushing the valuation of $BTC and hurting the holders?

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

4 years

First, what is the definition of reflexivity with respect to investing? Basically, that positive price action can improve fundamentals which then help further bolster prices to cause a virtuous circle/positive feedback loop. Same can be true on the downside.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

4 years

Vol/Liquidity: Higher prices will eventually cause vol to go down. Lower vol couples with higher prices/market cap will increase liquidity. Therefore $BTC could then make the leap from store of value to currency.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

9 months

@rev_cap If a large % of the portfolio starts PIKing, fund-level leverage providers on sell-side may start pulling back on lines which may force selling of individual loans.

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Kieran Goodwin

@kieranwgoodwin

1 year

@junkbondinvest You are only missing that HY market is now a no-growth bastard product similar to Muni's so perhaps not the true measure of current credit risk since so much forced buying by mutual funds which are mostly are closet HY index funds.

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