Andy Constan @dampedspring Twitter profile

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Andy Constan

5 months

This thread is something I've used with DS read clients for years. It's how I invest. Sharing it here. I have a DS Smartbeta and collaborate with the other gray beard in 2GB. These two portfolios have the same goal. DS alpha is what I tweet about cuz beta is boring.

Andy Constan

@dampedspring

5 months

Alpha and Beta Investing 201. The investment strategy I use is to allocate risk to both Alpha and Beta. For simplicity I will use DS Alpha and DS Beta for this thread though I personally use DS smart beta and less or not ETF's. The DS AlphaBeta is purple

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

10 months

I've been a professional bond trader for 35 years. 18 at the greatest bond trading house in history and the balance at two of the greatest hedge fund bond trading firms in history. You be the judge if I know how to trade bonds. I sell my macro research to a dozen of the

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

3 years

My dad is having Brain Cancer Surgery at the moment. Wish us luck.

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

2 years

My dads train collection

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

2 years

Dynamic hedging of a long call 101 This is going to be a really rough basics of dynamic hedging with no math. It's how I taught the Salomon Brothers and Bridgewater associates training class this topic. Just concepts. It's important to understand because sometimes the dynamic

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

2 years

The Brady commission a story. In 1987 on October 19th the stock market crashed. I was 23 years old and had been working at Salomon as a corporate finance analyst. The job was a two year stint where at the end you left to go to business school. It was a thrilling job.

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

7 months

I am wrong. If you feel the need to rub it in. Go ahead.

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

2 years

QT starts today a 101 thread. QT is simply the Fed reducing its balance sheet. They accomplish this in two ways. 1. They let their existing maturities payoff and they don't reinvest the proceeds and burn the cash (called runoff) 2. They sell bonds and mortgages into the private

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

7 months

Dad died two years ago today. His family and his train collection were his greatest joys. RIP Dad.

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

2 years

I don't trade stocks but love $NFLX at 270. They are going to push a password reset and screw the non paying users which are 3x the paying ones. It's coming. Your crazy if you think they will continue to let sharing be so easy

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

3 months

It's been a heck of a last nine months. After calling the top in July and the bottom on Halloween based on the QRA, we blew it big time. We "sold all assets" into what we thought was a big rally in late November. It was an awful call and we have been in drawdown through Mar

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

2 years

I bought the close on Friday in as big a size as my risk management allows. #SPX $SPY #NDX $QQQ. If we crash I am still up 11% for the year. I mention this because my feed has no one at all long. Lonely and happy. Shorts on the other hand wow!

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

2 years

Holy shit @jimcramer is the worst scam on the planet. @CNBC he claims he joked when he told everyone to short $ARKK on Thursday and now is saying to buy! It's criminal.

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

1 year

Been learning about markets for 37 years. 11 hours a day at least on average. That's 150,000 hours. Still learning every day.

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

10 months

Powell seems scared and guilty like he knows he broke something and doesn't want to admit it

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

9 months

I am not being sarcastic. I am bullish bonds and stocks and covered all my shorts and am buying dips

Andy Constan

@dampedspring

9 months

QRA synthesis BUY ALL ASSETs. Janet saved Christmas. Letsssssss gooooooo $TLT $SPY

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

1 year

Why would anyone own any asset when cash pays 2% real return for the next two years.

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

8 months

What happens when the RRP goes down substantially like it has been 101 There are two important paths and those paths are essential to understand what could happen to long term assets. Let's start with what is actually happening and then I'll deal with the one that matters

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

7 years

Trump tower on fire

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

1 year

Did volatility go up or down today? 101. Easy question? Not really. I will keep it as simple as possible. There are many great vol guys to give a better answer on here, But here goes. The symbol most use for vol is $VIX

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

2 years

Lucy our wonderful Lab having her last meal. She is in awful pain and is riddled with cancer that has been unable to be put in remission despite aggressive treatment. Bless you dear friend. All dogs go to heaven. Very sad day

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

1 year

A guy paid 1.7MN for a two night stay on higherer for longerer island today. He made a bet in Feb FF futures for a 50bp hike on Wednesday. I don't think it's likely. But he gets 35MN if correct

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

1 year

A lot of people blame the Fed for screwing the banks who were riding the curve. Let's look back. In dec 2021 they announced QT was coming. 3 months later 10 year yields had moved up 25 and were still at 1.75. PLUS the fed provided exit liquidity for 3 months by continuing to

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

7 months

Core Services Ex Housing services (Powell's Favorite) blazing hot .44% MoM x12 = 5.28%

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

2 years

Can the biggest bear on $TSLA tell me when it gets cheap?

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

8 months

Some thoughts on loneliness in views today. Let's start with what is my view. I am short a portfolio of assets including for simplicity SPY, TLT, TIP, GLD and GSG. My view is that cross asset portfolio will underperform cash in the next 3 months. It's a Forest view

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

3 months

We will close SPX down on the day.

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

1 year

A reminded that the current bond market is expecting a massive pivot and 200bp of cuts. The bond market is allegedly smart money. A year ago the smart money was long $TLT at 151.80

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

1 year

Picking up this lady tomorrow. Meet Daisy. DA Inner Soul Y'all

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

5 months

Hmm. The fed cares most about Core Services ex housing services and fwiw it printed .849 Which is 10.67% Annualized inflation.

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

2 years

Zero rate hikes in 2023. Clearly a recession is being priced in.

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

9 months

Take some profits you degens. I'm bullish but jeez. $TLT $ SPY $QQQ.

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

2 years

FWIW equities at 4000 are by any valuation metric much richer than they were at the ATH. #SPX

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

1 year

Life as an Investment Banking Analyst Oct 13 - Oct 19 1987. The week before the stock market crash of 1987 was already bizarre at Salomon Brothers. On 10/13, John Gutfreund, perhaps sensing the upcoming events decided to exit

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

8 months

All Assets were cheap. I called this after the QRA on 11/1 on @CNBCFastMoney with @MelissaLeeCNBC @karenfinerman @timseymour @GuyAdami Today its time to "Sell all Assets"

CNBC's Fast Money

@CNBCFastMoney

9 months

"I think assets are cheap now," says @dampedspring CEO and CIO Andy Constan. He explains why he's bullish on stocks and bonds after the Treasury increased the size of its bond sales.

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

2 months

Approaching my 60th birthday I remain highly active in markets as an asset manager, research and strategy provider, mentor, and collaborator with people who appreciate and value my hard work. I also offer a ton of free content here and on pod casts. I live a blessed life that I

Kris Sidial🇺🇸

@Ksidiii

2 months

Controversial take: There is an interesting behavioral situation that takes place on Fintwit when it comes to people sharing views. I often see someone say, “I think the market is going up because of _______,” then, when they are clearly wrong, 20 people immediately make fun of

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

1 year

Anyone thinks this is bullish is mistaken This shark thrives on chaos and has no interest in the government competing with him to bailout the market.

Watcher.Guru

@WatcherGuru

1 year

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 White House & billionaire Warren Buffett are in talks about the ongoing banking crisis.

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

9 months

As of this moment I just added to be the most short equities I have been. Now 7% AUM worst case loss. $SPY

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

7 months

Cem and I are exactly aligned here

Cem Karsan 🥐

@jam_croissant

7 months

The Fed right now… 😬 History will not judge this Fed meeting well.

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

7 months

My big mistake was overweighting what I thought the Fed would consider important. Specifically I thought they would care that ten year notes trade at 4%, that mortgage rates in the next few days would be below 7%, that term premium is now solidly negative and is a measure of

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

6 months

Gonna take a break on my public twitter account. See you in February.

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

8 months

Today the BOE Warned about the Treasury Basis Trade. What is it and does it matter 101? Hedge funds are very short ten year note futures (and most every point on the curve). Are they getting Rekt with this rally? Nope. What's going on?

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

3 years

Options (gamma) walls 101- what is a gamma wall? Well it is a long options position above or below the market which puts a cap or a floor on the market. Let's use the current case. There is a wall at 4800 on the SPX that expires on Friday.

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

7 months

Humble brag. I was just recognized by a follower in the Costco shopping lot. First time. Such a nice and appreciative guy. Local restaurant owner.

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

3 months

And so now everyone who isn't involved in crypto is watching BTC to guage the market impact of war cuz it's the only thing that's open when drones fly

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

2 years

Mortgage Convexity 101. What is mortgage convexity and why does it matter? The US is one of the few countries on earth with long term fixed rate mortgages that can be refinanced at any time with no penalty. That makes holding mortgages complex. When the mortgage is refinanced

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

1 year

What happened at the emergency meeting at 11:30? 🤣🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

10 months

I am as of 8:30 LONG bonds 10's and 30's in a risk controlled vol selling way with a long delta. Been a long time being short. Let's see how this goes. $TLT

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

1 year

Some of you have asked for a bit more depth about my career experiences and lessons I learned along the way. I'm going to go chronologically. This will be the first in a series. Life as an investment banking financial analyst from 1986-1988 - a story.

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

7 months

havent seen a more bizarre index morning in a long time. Things are broken

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

2 months

I was wrong. Fun while it lasted.

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

1 year

You can currently buy a 5 year treasury strip plus an at the money SPX call for 104 and get 100% of the price appreciation of the SPX or 100 back at the end of year five. Not bad.

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

3 years

Gamma squeeze 101. Let's say you and your pals own 1 million shares of stock at 190 and you think today is both a good day to pump and a good day to dump your stock based on some news, an 🍦, or something random. You can engage in a gamma squeeze. Here's how

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

1 year

Just a disaster of a two year note auction. That confirms all the shorts that drove STIR this last two weeks have covered. The degrossing is over. Beware big cap tech, gold, BTC, and JPY carry.

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

9 months

QRA synthesis BUY ALL ASSETs. Janet saved Christmas. Letsssssss gooooooo $TLT $SPY

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

6 months

Gonna drop one fact here and then go quiet again. The BTFP allows anyone in the program to extend an additional year. Everyone in the program given the arbitrage pricing will do that on March 10th and then the program will not be extended. See ya in February.

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

1 year

Map of the Constan Islands $SPY $TLT. .

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

5 months

My feed is now filled with no cuts in 2024. Welcome to my Island. Where have you all been?

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

7 months

My surprise list for 2024 Happy New Year (reposted) 1. Fed will hike more than it will cut in 2024 2. Oil will trade above 90 3. DXY will trade below 100 4. Bitcoin spot ETF will not happen in 2024 5. Gold will trade below 1700 6. No bank with market cap above 50BN will fail

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

1 year

She's home.

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

9 months

I won't go into details publicly but the QRA funding estimates are bearish bonds and stocks.

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

2 years

Unusual option activity - A story. I have bought and written options for over 30 years. Single stocks, Index, Fixed Income, Currency, Gold, Oil, credit and exotic options, if it's an option there's a good chance I have traded it in my career. But thank god I haven't done one

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

2 years

Let me rephrase. A sudden market move on no obvious sudden news that anyone can find feels like an investor blow up. I've seen enough of them over 35 years that my spidey sense is tingling.

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

2 years

Why Japan and the movements in the Yen are important to macro 101 A number of people have asked this same question which I answered in my private Twitter feed last week. Below is the the thread

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

4 months

Not trolling, not looking to debate. Just looking for what I am missing. What is the bull case for equities. I've been wrong.

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

5 months

Since the Chat GPT investment by MSFT Mag 7 has generated over 100% of $SPY Price returns. Lately its been all $NVDA 42% of the Return of the Equity Market Benchmark for a year is one stock. Ive never seen this. Don't even think it happened with Big Oil or Railroads 100 years

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

7 months

DS 2024 Surprise List a la Byron Wein 🪦 1. Fed will hike more than it will cut in 2024 2. Oil will trade above 90 3. DXY will trade below 100 4. Bitcoin spot ETF will not happen in 2024 5. Gold will trade below 1700 6. No bank with market cap above 50BN will fail and be taken

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

8 months

We have entered the peak soft landing narrative zone!

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

8 months

Bookmark this thread. It is fantastic and tells you everything you ever wanted to know about auctions

James Lavish

@jameslavish

2 years

Treasury auctions can give us clues to the health or problems of the entire US financial system. But what are those clues and how can you tell? Time for a Treasury 🧵👇

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

2 years

Wrote this 101 on The Eurodollar market this summer for my clients. Forgot to post it here. Perhaps this will help people who were trying to follow the great back and forth this weekend between @TotemMacro and @SantiagoAuFund

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

10 months

Just to adjust to the rise in bond yields equities need to go to 3900. At that level they will have the same risk premium they had before the bond term premium expansion and expect the same 12% CAGR earnings growth. $SPY

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

1 year

For those of you long stocks hoping that QE will bail you out soon. Here's my TA line

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

7 months

The Fed has arrived on soft landing island.

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

9 months

Do not expect me to provide a sell signal. You are on your own.

Andy Constan

@dampedspring

9 months

QRA synthesis BUY ALL ASSETs. Janet saved Christmas. Letsssssss gooooooo $TLT $SPY

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

2 years

Corporate credit 101. A range of topics. 1. Corporate bond and spread, pricing, risk and drivers. 2. What are HYG and LQD? 3. An alternative way to think of corporate bond valuation. 1. A corporate bond is a liability issued by a corporation with a fixed coupon and maturity

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

8 months

Honestly I dont understand how anyone can miss the clear signal. Instead those who did miss it are late to bring up net liquidity. Even worse is the takes that explain the bond rally in conflict with the stock rally or visa versa. It was the QRA folks.

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

3 years

Samuel Davis Constan 1935-2021 RIP. The most wonderful father anyone could have. I love him so.

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

1 year

One target is off the table. Its chance was today and the tractor beam failed

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

9 months

I wasn't being sarcastic $TLT $SPY

Andy Constan

@dampedspring

9 months

QRA synthesis BUY ALL ASSETs. Janet saved Christmas. Letsssssss gooooooo $TLT $SPY

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

8 months

RIP Charlie Munger

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

9 months

Since the August QRA assets got really cheap. I expected Janet to hammer them more today. But she did the opposite. Without a supply catalyst assets are just to cheap to be short or underweight

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

5 months

Lots of lessons here for everyone including me 1) Most importantly. Hold assets for long term passively with low fees 2) market timing is hard and most people can't do it. 3) Following others trades particularly when you cherry pick is silly 4) follow people you can learn

Kevin

@kevin_jawn

5 months

I finally did it. I unfollowed Andy Constan. Like the guy, have learned a lot, have made 0 money.

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

7 months

My longshot surprise for 2024 remains the fed will hike more than it cuts. In memory of Byron Wein's year end lists 🪦

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

4 months

For those of you who have followed me over the last 4 years of high activity on this site you probably most know me as two things. 1. The guy who calls out doomers who during crises see the end of the financial system. 2. A perma bull who was bullish from 4/2020 to 2/2022 and

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

3 months

Today is the 5th anniversary of my founding of Damped Spring Institutional. I am grateful for all of my hedge fund investor clients and all that I have met here on Twitter. I look forward to contributing here for years to come

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

8 months

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

8 months

FWIW all 108BN bonds auctioned this week are now underwater.

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

8 months

As a matter of scale of various things I find in interesting that Today in one auction the treasury is issuing enough 30 year bonds that if used to buy crude at spot would refill the SPR to its full capacity.

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

2 years

The yield curve in concept 101. I am going to skip all the bond mark in this thread. First the most simple definition. The yield curve is the graph of the market level of interest rates on the Y-Axis and maturity on the X-Axis Here's an example

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

2 years

Treasury buybacks 101. Since the minutes of the last Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee Meeting in early August mentioned a study being put together to have staff examine the costs and benefits of the US treasury engaging in a bond buyback program. This thread will address

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

1 year

You might find it hard to believe but investors in total are long 100% equity that exists all the time. Every day. Every second. There is no "everybody is short"or "everybody is long" The shorts sold to somebody. The net is always long. The rest is just a game of chicken.

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

11 months

Micheal Burry most likely is risking less than 2% of his AUM on puts fwiw. $SPY $QQQ

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

2 years

How I think about liquidity. 101. Start with the high level. At any one instant assets are owned by savers. Those who need money have what they need and those who have money are invested in what they want to own. Now. Let's say the government wants to spend while they have a

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

6 months

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

1 year

Okay. Packing my bags.

Jim Cramer

@jimcramer

1 year

Higher for longer

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

2 years

What is a hedge fund? - 101 I started writing my own personal story about starting a hedge fund and realized I better lay the foundation of what a hedge fund actually is before I jump into my personal experience as many are confused.

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

1 month

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Andy Constan

@dampedspring

2 years

If you want to have a good back and forth in seeking the truth I am down for it. If you want to troll me by cherry picking my bad calls I have no time for you. I own my bad calls. I have many. Trolls blocked immediately. Too many good folks out there that want to debate truth.

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