Nick G. @nickgiva1 Twitter profile

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

9 months

Worst trick the devil ever played was to make people believe that BTC supply is limited to 21 mill. It's actually infinite. We can now print as much of that shit as you want. Just like gold. We don't even need to mine that crap. We can create endless quantities through

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

1 year

Hate people who talk about markets in riddles. Sign of bullshitter. You got an opinion? Spit it out. In straight English.

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

3 months

I traded cash bonds every day from 1984 to 2000. I traded from ED to US futures in the 10s of thousands/day. Every single sodding day. Believe me when I tell you that it did not feel like a secular bull market. Now, in hindsight, everyone talks about it as "the greatest bull

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

8 months

You know that by buying $MSTR up here you are paying $110k/BTC, don't you? I mean, it's an empty shell will $12bn of BTC in it, trading at $22bn. In the custody of a semi-criminal on top. The stupidity of retail never ceases to amaze me. You bullish $BTC? Great! Buy it at

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

1 year

Florida: all hotels full to the brim, all attractions booked out, buildings going up everywhere, as far as the eye can see, it's all new build (in grotesque taste, but I did not expect better). A recession is a million miles away from here. Boom City. But you go long bonds...

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

1 year

@ZubyMusic Probably why they are such a miserable lot. One needs to get proper drunk once in a while, especially when young. All the best stories start with "Years ago, while I was as drunk as a Lord...".

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

10 months

Happy New Year to everyone! May your trading goals all be achieved. Personally I don't set any. Whatever the market gives and I am not too stupid to capture, or piss back against the wall, is fine by me. Far more important than monthly P/L is to set yourself the goal of

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

1 year

I really can't stand people who shitpost about Druckenmiller. You can trade against him, sure. If you are quick. But trying to compare your insignificant cretinous ass to that legend, just shows your parents taught you no manners. And God gave you no brains.

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

11 months

Interesting question which has a logical answer. Because when bonds dump (or move in general), I make millions, safely. Because there are logical reasons for the move that can be evaluated and stops placed to maximize risk/reward and sizing can be calculated against them. Which

Mixlmandible

@mixlmandible

11 months

@nickgiva1 I dont understand how you tradfi guys can underperform btc for almost 2 decades and still be this smug. Especially when bonds dumped over 50% in 2023.

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

2 years

His son must be real dumb if it takes that much to get him in.

*Walter Bloomberg

@DeItaone

2 years

CITADEL'S KEN GRIFFIN GIVES $300 MILLION TO HARVARD UNIVERSITY

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

1 year

Monthly charts of SPY and TLT since Aug 2nd QRA when @dampedspring and I on @2GrayBeards told you that it was an unmitigated disaster and that all assets would reprice lower. Straight down. Another QRA coming next week. Can you afford to ignore our take? Duration issuance

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

1 year

I am calling the low in long TIPS. Fuck it. All in. At 2.5% real...how much worse can it get? Let's find out...

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

1 year

If the Fed wanted long bonds to trade at 4.00% again, it could accomplish it in a minute. All they would have to do is hike 100bp.

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

22 days

More like Dennis Retard.

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

11 months

To be a successful trader, you first of all have to learn your own character and foibles. And try to overcome them. As an example, I find it difficult to add to losing trades. Even when I have purposely decided to enter small with the intention of adding lower. The only way I

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

1 year

I have been very lucky most of my life. Being able to give something back and make other people's lives better fills me with happiness.

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

1 year

Once you have bought the pullback...that's when the market can REALLY tank. Think about it.

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

1 year

I have come across all kinds of excellent traders over the years. Some specialize in daytrading, some in long term trades, some play exclusively curve trades or spreads, other directional. Some use tight stops, some not. They come in all shapes & sizes, with differing skills &

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

6 months

Doctors make the worst traders. They have that God Complex which means they can never ever admit, even to themselves, that they are wrong. Plus all doctors are full of shit. I should know, I have 3 Professors as close family. They have the street smarts of a new-born kitten,

Billy Ahmed, MD

@bilawale

6 months

@dampedspring Bulls make money - bears sound smart ... good luck . If yield of 4.7 is not keeping the markets down , no point shorting it .

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

1 year

Macro narratives can absolutely bury you. The worst beating I ever got was because I fell in love with my own macro theory. It was even an eventual winner! It proved right years later. No consolation: got absolutely killed. Thankfully I was young and learnt from it:

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

1 year

When this is over, remember who told you to be very, very careful buying duration and who led you down the garden path with bullshit. Unfollow idiots, follow experience.

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

6 months

YAY!! Finally sold my $BABA at a profit. Never buying that shit again. 6 months and huge heartache to make $7. Now watch the fucker soar.

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

1 year

In the UK I watched Channel 4 news and Newsnight. Whatever you might think about BBC or John Snow bias, those programs brought you in-depth news and analysis of world affairs. Every day. The Americans have NOTHING similar. Watched NBC news last night. Clown show for the

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

1 year

All of a sudden everyone is a bond expert. Although they never sat on a bond desk in their lives. You know how I can tell they are full of shit? Because they are certain they are right. The bond market eats certain people for lunch.

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

11 months

My best trade ever? Easy. I bought $100k worth of the $AMZN IPO in 1997. My worst? Easy too. I sold those same shares for about $300k in 1998.

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

18 days

Well...while we wait for this Cat 5 to hit, I can recount my experience with a Cat 4 that directly hit me some years back. My house is built of reinforced poured concrete and is 15ft above sea level, so was not worried about wind damage or surge. All windows have shutters. I

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

11 months

The USA is a third world country. Meeting a friend for coffee. Paper cups, you have to walk around to find sugar. Capuccino tastes like shit. In Europe you get served. Great coffee, china cup and saucer. Real spoons. USA barbarians.

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

7 months

If you are in Miami, drinks are on @dampedspring

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

1 year

When you trade long bonds, you trade them from level to level. You wait for your level. You have to be patient. And, most importantly, remember: it's a trade, not a "once in a generation buying opportunity". No such thing. I've seen them over 12% and under 1%. And I will

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

9 months

To have any confidence in the validity of any numerical analysis, you first need to have confidence in the rule of law and the institutions which foster and enforce it. Never put one penny into China. Not in the '90s, not since and never will. Don't care what the price is.

Global Bagholding Opportunities IV L.P.

@justbrosef

9 months

this company makes instant noodles. That's how bad things have gotten in China equities.

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

3 months

The Kamala Krash.

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

1 year

If we get a high CPI, you are all going to feel so screwed. Buying the very short end here is playing Russian roulette with 4 bullets in a 6 shooter drum.

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

25 days

Anyone thinking they "own" Chinese shares is deluding themselves. You own what the CCP allows you to own and for as long as they allow you to own it. When they want to disabuse you that you own anything at all in China, they will, in seconds. It just does not suit them to

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

3 months

Yesterday I found out that my father-in-law, at 86, has 39% of his portfolio in crypto. And that means he probably owns more $BTC than all the crypto bros on this platform combined. 😂 I was shocked. Still, his money... It's a small step from gold bug to crypto bug, it seems.

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

1 year

The difference being, you piece of human garbage, that the Ukrainians fight soldiers in the field while the Palestinians search for unarmed women to rape and execute, kidnap their babies and put them in cages.

ارسلان اصغر

@arsalfic

1 year

@nickgiva1

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

1 year

After those quantities in QRA at 8:30 we bought everything: TY, BTP, ES, QQQ, all risk assets. Jellen playing Santa. Market caught sleeping again. Because sUppLy dOeS NoT maTTeR 🤡

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

1 year

Equity traders don't know whether to go for a shit or a haircut today. They haven't seen a flattening curve in a long time. Being pulled in both directions at once between high and low beta. We like to keep our retarded cousins in suspense.

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

1 year

I've said it before and I'll say it again. Buying long duration into a Fed hold, a steeply negative YC and monster duration supply is plain dumb: it's pissing into the wind of the yield curve. Short duration you can hold, long...silly.

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

9 months

The cost to hedge is just too low at the moment. QRA can be anything. Just makes no sense that the market is allowing such cheap hedges. You don't take it, you are not playing the odds correctly, whatever your opinion of where the market goes from here.

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

1 year

Imho, if you follow more than a couple of hundred people on here, you are doing it wrong. Too many differing opinions just leads to paralysis of your own thought process.

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

5 months

See? You can not have the faintest idea what futures prices mean and STILL get a Nobel prize in economics.

Paul Krugman

@paulkrugman

5 months

The good news for camp Biden is that futures prices suggest that gas prices will come down significantly in the coming months 2/

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

1 year

Lol. By the end of the next weekend there won’t be anything of Palestine left. This will prove to be about as clever a strategic move as attacking Pearl Harbour.

*Walter Bloomberg

@DeItaone

1 year

🇮🇱 PALESTINIAN PRESIDENT URGES FRENCH COUNTERPART IN PHONE CALL TO INTERVENE TO STOP 'ISRAELI AGGRESSION' - OFFICIAL NEWS AGENCY WAFA

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

11 months

Well, that was good. @dampedspring & @jam_croissant Zero silly conspiracy theories or bogus "plumbing". The whole disagreement is about timing and you 2 are not even that far apart on that... I think that everyone who listened was thoroughly informed. Many thanks to both.

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

1 year

I hate modern cars. They bing and bong at you constantly. No seatbelt? Bong! Too close to the car in front? BONG! Approaching car in front too fast? Breaks for you! Literally designed for incompetent drivers and a joyless, utilitarian experience. My solution: back to the '90s!

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

10 months

I have long maintained that the Fed could be replaced with a simple model utilizing moving averages and the 2yr note. Supported by a team of 20-30 supervising programmers, economists and data engineers. It's like Twitter pre-Elon. He fired 75% of the staff and no one noticed.

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

1 year

I normally have an almost allergic revulsion reaction to anything coming from ex or current GS. But these two nail it.

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

10 months

There you are, straight from the horse's mouth, the CDC. If you fell for the Covid hoax, you should now have your voting rights revoked, because you are just criminally stupid. Remember: you were the ones calling for concentration camps for the unvaccinated... Still happy with

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

6 months

When Milei won, I put some money into $ARGT I didn't put in enough. +30% in 6 months. I don't think this stops for years and years. No reason to: rates will fall dramatically as inflation is reduced to nothing and all Argentinian assets will continue to appreciate.

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

10 months

All I care about is what the market is saying. Everything else is a cheap opinion loosely held. Which might, or might not be correct longer term. But which won't stop me trading the way the market is telling me to trade. If you think we get "no landing", you might be right some

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

6 months

Amen. Stan for Fed Chair, Dimon for UST Secretary. Retire the dwarf.

Squawk Box

@SquawkCNBC

6 months

"Don't go on 60 Minutes, you're not a rock star," says Stanley Druckenmiller about the Fed's Jay Powell and whether a hike is really off the table.

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

1 year

BUT...BUT...BUT...how can bonds be up? Issuance will still be 340bn+ next quarter!!!??? And? First we squeeze the bejeezus out of you, then we worry about issuance, using your stop as liquidity. And, wherever it is, be sure the market will find it. Simple.

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

7 months

Hey, Jay. If you are looking for someone to buy long duration on that presser and those dots...count me out.

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

6 months

WW3 starts. Gold red, oil up 6 cents. OK. But you need a flight to safety. OK. Reminder: a gazillion more treasuries coming your way next week. Oh, and the week after, and the one after that. Enjoy the negative carry.

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

1 year

Live look at Fed Pivot island this morning...

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

3 months

Europe really is pathetic. Everyone at ECB presser asking about DJT, as if it's a bigger concern than anything they can do by themselves for themselves. While in USA no one even knows the name of Europe's leaders or could care less who gets elected. A subservient slave

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

3 months

I read Yellen and Frost's disingenuous reply to @SteveMiran and @Nouriel 's excellently argued paper, which you can find here: While they can easily bullshit voters with words, I have marked with the red arrow the precise date of the Q3 QRA when they

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

1 year

I pay for a lot of subscriptions. 8 at last count. Some get churned after a bit. Because there are some seriously good traders posting on Fintwit and Substack, with interesting views and logic. That does not necessarily mean that I follow all or any of their trades. That is

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

1 year

This is so misleading and just the worst of FinTwit. There is zero dichotomy between someone buying some TBills and someone else selling TLT. Pure ignorance.

Katie Greifeld 🎃

@kgreifeld

1 year

Buffett vs Ackman *BUFFETT: WE BOUGHT $10B IN TREASURIES THIS MONDAY, LAST MONDAY *ACKMAN: WE ARE SHORT IN SIZE THE 30-YEAR TREASURYS

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

1 year

This is the most gratifying message I just received. Brought a little tear to my eye.

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

1 year

Wrong timing = plain wrong Every trader knows that. Obviously does not apply to Twitter "personalities" impersonating traders.

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

9 months

Some of you trade far too much. Stop it. Today you had no reason to do anything until 3:00pm and 01 second. It's real money that moves markets, not silly squiggly lines on toilet paper. And real money came into the market at 3:00:01 for a reason.

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

1 year

From all the comments I received, I can see that people do not understand. What is written here is a misleading tautology. Say that your cost of carry is literally zero. You have money you keep in your bank account at 0%, because you have just come back from Mars and have never

Rich Falk-Wallace

@richfalkwallace

1 year

Bond math is now key to today's financial markets Let know if you'd like the sheet. The table on the right reflects a powerful new dynamic: If rates fall 50bps, 20yr Treasuries earn 11.3% over the next year. But if rates rise by 50bps, they lose just 0.9% -- an 11:1 up/down

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

1 year

And bonds win the day: high beta up, low beta unchanged. Impressive duration buying in front of a 30yr auction. Bonds telling us CPI will be cool. Someone always knows...

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

1 year

Sure fire signs of mental illness in a trader: 1. Obsessive need for "security" which is nothing more than paranoia about being found out to be less than an "infallible God" (which none of us are). 2. Considering anyone with a currently opposed market view & position to be an

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

7 months

In the midst of the strongest technological revolution in all of human history (and it's not even close), the Chinese buy gold. Just shows you, you buy what you are forced to buy. If I wanted to sink China forever and the CIA asked me to come up with an economic black ops,

Bob Elliott

@BobEUnlimited

7 months

Chinese demand is still the important driver.

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

7 months

If you ever run out of loo paper, you can always wipe your ass with the Fed's inflation mandate. Free option.

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

7 months

Returns since Jan 2022: AAPL: unchanged AMZN: unchanged TSLA: -50% SPX: +10% XLI: +20% Makes you think, no?

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

1 year

Let's break down what the two 🤡🤡 are saying here: DXY is 58% EURUSD. Only way for DXY to "point" to a US ISM of 60 (currently 47), would mean that EU ISM would need to be even higher than that, otherwise DXY would rise. Which means that the 🤡🤡 are actually predicting a total

Texas Oncologist

@TexasOncologist

1 year

Officer, I'd like to report a chart crime.... @CumLordeAwards @INArteCarloDoss

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

1 year

EVERY . SINGLE . MARKET . RIGHT. And all with a reasoned explanation as to why, when and what the trigger will be. I've made the video free for you to download. Enjoy.

WEEKLY VIDEO | charityhedgefund

Videos about the current interplay of Risk On and Risk Off assets and market levels which will signal substantial shifts in their relationships.

www.charityhedgefund.com

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

1 year

From the comments I got about Tips, I can see that many people have misconceptions about how they work. Over the weekend I will do a "short" on YouTube about them. To understand why I think the case for them here is very compelling, subscribe to our channel to watch it.

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

1 year

@paulkrugman Could you fax me that chart? I am short on loo paper.

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

5 months

Since Andy is ill, I will grade the auction: 2s a C, 5s a 🤮

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

9 months

One of the great mysteries of life is why 1.7 million people follow @zerohedge ? Are there really that many idiots out there? Or do they do it to get a good laugh at the ridiculously bad takes they have on a daily basis? Someone should run a poll...

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

1 year

This episode of @2GrayBeards came out on 5th August 2023. Well worth watching. Prior to that we sent an email to subscribers on 2nd, with warnings to go to minimum equities exposure immediately (SPX=4545) and avoid long term bonds at all costs (30yr=4.10%) It's the logic that is

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

1 year

I'm always surprised when someone is offended at being called an asshole. I never am. Then I remember that I spent decades in trading rooms where asshole was the kindest thing we ever called each other, whilst all these guys ever did was read a book about trading.

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

3 months

@MichaelAArouet

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

10 months

Pro tip: if you see the 1 month bill yield spike but the 3 month is unchanged and the SOFR curve is unchanged too, odds are that you are an imbecile if you think it somehow shows anything but a bad print. Great opportunity to purge your timeline of imbeciles.

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

1 year

Cash is king here, boys.

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

1 year

People are buying gold. I get that. There is some shit flying around in some God forsaken place. But eventually shit stops flying and why would you forego 2.5% real yield to get 0%? It's the kind of thing that you will ask yourself in a year's time and think it was obvious in

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

10 months

Blackrock earnings are going to be stellar. If you don't think that the BTC ETF was negotiated months ago and that they did not frontrun the projected demand, I have a bridge to sell you.

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

1 year

If you don't believe supply caused bonds prices to crater...and then you cheer when the market is up because Ackman covered...then you are a true moron. Because if supply does not matter, demand can't either.

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

1 year

Whoa there, big boy. When I said 4400 possible, I meant by month end, not this Friday.

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

1 year

😂😂😂 He can predict asset prices 3 years out…500 MBAs and all the power of the Federal Government and the Fed can’t predict shit 3 months out, but GMI can predict everything 3yrs out. If you need further proof that the guy is a charlatan, you need your head examined.

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

5 months

Been thinking about this for a while: you wake up one day to China invading Taiwan headlines (personally I think it's very low odds, but better to be prepared...). Obviously US bonds are bid to fuck, first reaction is always risk off. Gold is off the charts already. Spoos are

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

11 months

It's amazing how being permanently bearish on everything (against all evidence to the contrary) sells... After 15 minutes of this guy, you feel like building a bunker in West Virginia...or topping yourself.

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

11 months

RIP Charlie Munger. Sad day.

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

1 year

Congratulations to Iran. Their plan was decades in the making. That is when they started indoctrinating children like the one below. And that indoctrination is what it takes to get him to walk up to defenceless women and children and shoot them in the head, once grown. No normal

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

6 months

Probably because their husbands can bear to fuck them again...

Carl Quintanilla

@carlquintanilla

6 months

(Bloomberg) - A surprising thing is happening to some women on weight-loss drugs who’ve struggled with fertility issues: They’re getting pregnant .. ⁦ @business ⁩ ⁦ @JohnSpall247 ⁩ $NVO

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

1 year

When the Germans occupied his city, my father was 15. Soon afterwards, one of his classmates disappeared from school. Days later my father saw him on the other side of a barbed wire fence, in a small camp where Jews were being gathered, quite close to the city center, before

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

1 year

Who won't bullshit you and give you a bum steer out of sheer ignorance, on here? If they make a mistake, it's just an honest mistake, which everyone makes, not made up shit like Spoos and Fed BS or RRP and USD fatuous supposed relationships. @dampedspring @bobEUnlimited

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

1 month

I've often said that I would replace the whole Fed with the 2yr note: in every cycle, both up and down, it moved first and was right, with the Fed eventually scrambling to catch up with it. Plus you save a few $100m in salaries. They should cut 175bp, put FFs on top of the 2s

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

8 months

Whenever a Commie does not like a price, he introduces some new stupid rule. Works for a bit, then it makes things even worse. That's because it does not address the primary reason for the low price: Communism.

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

8 months

@dampedspring Measuring and Controlling Interest Rate and Credit Risk by Fabozzi. If that does not put him off and make him aspire to get a real job, nothing will 😂

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

4 months

Here we go. All the same bullslhit from the same "public servants" as in '70s. Cycle goes like this: 1. Labour supermajority. 2. Within weeks Labour left wing MPs rebel and ask for huge pay rises for "public servants". 3. Inflation through the roof. 4. Gilts crises. 5. Economy

Trisha Greenhalgh

@trishgreenhalgh

4 months

Goodbye Tories. I’ve waited a long time for this day.

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

8 months

But the inversion was never a signal of recession. Never. It was the disinversion. When Fed started cutting rates BECAUSE the economy was weakening. Any signs of that after today's CPI?

*Walter Bloomberg

@DeItaone

8 months

❖ REUTERS POLL - INVERTED YIELD CURVE NO LONGER A RELIABLE INDICATOR FOR RECESSION, SAID 22 OF 34 STRATEGISTS

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

1 year

People looking for endless trends in bonds are setting themselves up for disappointment. You trade that shit from level to level. That is the risk-reward. Everything else is hot air & narrative. Unless risk off. Risk off swamps everything. Brains first & foremost.

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

1 year

This tweet lit up my Notifications. What I found interesting is that most people make no differentiation between traders, investors and various opinion writers. So, what IS a trader, as opposed to any other category of people who talk or position markets?

Andy Constan

@dampedspring

1 year

Just got asked to force rank top 10 serious real deal traders (not economists or researchers) on this platform. Couldn't do it. 14 here and many who belong on the list. Not in order. @nickgiva1 @Super_macro @kieranwgoodwin @simon_ree @mike_taylor1972 @citrini7 @longconvexity

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

1 year

Most of the time, it's not what's happening, but what should be happening...and isn't... that is the tell.

TraderSZ

@trader1sz

1 year

The fact that cryoto still can’t catch a bid with dollar pulling back and equities rallying says a lot imo.

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

1 year

It’s only when you say something this obvious and read the comments that you realise that a very large proportion of humanity is just a bunch of cu*ts.

Le Shrub🌳🔥🇺🇦

@agnostoxxx

1 year

Let’s establish some basic principles: Kidnapping children = Bad Raping women = Bad Killing people = Bad If we can’t even agree on this, then there’s no hope 😪

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Nick G.

@nickgiva1

10 months

The #SEC is now officially a joke. FFS, you are the Government Agency of THE Superpower of this World, with the duty of preventing market manipulation...and you can't even secure your Twitter account to prevent market manipulation? If I were Biden, I would so fire all your

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