Kevin @kevin_jawn Twitter profile

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@dorriyaki

Kevin

@kevin_jawn

6 months

I finally did it. I unfollowed Andy Constan. Like the guy, have learned a lot, have made 0 money.

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

6 months

Filed taxes, depressing to look at my taxable losses. Even more in 401ks. Glad I made those rules, glad I stopped following furus. Eliant, Lord Fed, Jedi Ant, David Tracey, Andy Constan, Trading Thomas... all have been lousy experiences for me (tho I still respect Andy and Fed).

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

2 years

@TruthGundlach Sounds kinda... kinda like you're fighting the Fed?

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

2 years

@MaryPeltola Congratulations, Mary!! I wish you all the best in serving AK.

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

2 years

@atrupar This is what I needed to see

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

6 months

Proud of myself for being able to stop the madness of doubling down. Proud of myself for learning to stop out before it was too late for the rest of my savings. Sad for making poor decisions. I own that and I will always own that and carry it with me.

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

6 months

I am out on following any kind of furu. Will look for ideas to explore on my own on here, but this will be a reset year for me and a year of derisking into beta (limited alpha plays). I am building up savings - fortunately am well compensated - but I set myself yrs in 2023.

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

6 months

I don't say any of thus to put them on blast. All of my followers are bots anyway lol. I am really just being realistic with myself that I have to do this the slow way and make my own alpha choices, not lean on others.

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

6 months

Even guys like Citrini who make tons of money are near impossible to follow. It's just kind of useless following someone. So many stop outs, etc.

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

6 months

Fortunate that I am still doing great, have a wonderful family, no debt issues, all going relatively fine here. Hope my new job works out well and, we'll, now I more viscerally know even a smart guy like me can scam himself listening to people online. Don't do it.

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

6 months

I will be following bullish accounts from now on. I know some are essentially just lucky calling this bull market, but it's the proper bias to have.

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

6 months

@FitPhilospher Big brain macro shit just doesn't work lol. Not a knock on anyone in that comment. It's cool and can help as a tool, but man, it is NOT a good primary tool.

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

6 months

Leaning into the Wheel with limited funds to support me getting used to options again in a sustainable manner. Most of my trades are losing rn lol, but the point is to just to run it for a while anyway and losses are small (still got premiums on sold puts).

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

2 years

@TicTocTick Don't think bears are weak. Think market makers are ridiculously strong and basically legally cheating.

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

2 years

@umichvoter

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

10 months

@Ooojin482 @PauloMacro But it sounds provocative. It gets the people going.

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

2 years

@burgessev @meridithmcgraw They really don't get it

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

2 years

@NickTimiraos Seems like that calls for a 0.5% FFR increase

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

1 year

Guess the Fed better cut soon, equity markets really ailing

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

2 years

@NPR Is this nyt pitchbot

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

2 years

@greggrosenthal

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

2 years

I think this is my favorite account on Twittah

Wasteland Capital

@ecommerceshares

2 years

Even Q1 guide was poor, and *shrug*. 🤷‍♂️ It’s a virtual monopoly (75-80% share). It has “AI” in the name. Gaming, crypto, selfdriving, data center, metaverse, now AI, u name it, they’re in there. Narrative trumps the current & nearterm numbers (*for now). I don’t make the rules!

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

2 years

If $NFLX rips on ER, I won't have that much money. If $NFLX tanks, I still won't have much.

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

2 years

@theStevenRuiz Examples? Here are some that got time after needing it. Didn't end well: Jameis Winston JaMarcus Russell Success: Jalen Hurts Dakota Prescott Plenty didn't need it like McNaab, Vick, Lamar

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

6 months

I know ridiculous of me after my banger Andy tweet (sorry Andy), but I am ultimately still a recovering permabear. I begrudgingly admit I am bearish still (ridiculous), but I am changing how I react to that and how I consume info. Part of that is removing bias confirmation.

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

1 year

@Mr_Derivatives Long term bearish. No idea for next 12 months, bailing on positions after a target and going cash.

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

6 months

@nope_its_lily I follow you because you are a "tough follow". You challenge ideas, you bring rigor, you make me better. I am really taking a break from Andy more than giving up on his great insights. I'm just in a place where I need to follow price and not get so distracted by macro.

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

6 months

@MaverickUntold Drake meme should have been a red flag. I can only blane myself.

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

1 year

@Swordfishv44183 It's a nothing burger for me. I do find the huge stock buyback at ATHs after earnings were released super sketch, tho.

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

6 months

@Emmonspired Absolutely. And honestly, I think I just get too comfortable with too much risk when I follow smart guys like Andy who have these master acts and plays and plans. The puts purchases flow like water. Of course we are in act 3. Of course I am right. Ultimately, it's a comment on me

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

2 years

@unusual_whales Oh God no, think about The Rich!

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

2 years

This looks so unbelievably painful for all traders that it is my new base case. Time to ditch most of my shorts that are not ultra high conviction. Glad I have been accumulating some beaten up stocks for the long term.

RBswingtrader

@rbswingtrader

2 years

This is how QQQ could look like along with this. Again, a lot depends on how the pullback looks like next week or so. Waiting for that.

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

2 years

@ShortsellerST Bearish sentiment medium term, bullish resignment near term

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

1 year

@MadThunderdome @slackercapital 😂😂

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

2 years

@jam_croissant Help the poor, hold interest rates high. It's a choice worth debating if not a popular one on FinTwit.

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

1 year

@allincapital @eliant_capital Following Eliant made me some money, but mostly it lost me money. He blocked me after I noted he is patchy at best on some other thread.

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

6 months

Muted. And, as evidenced in my replies, this is really more a comment on me than Andy!

Kevin

@kevin_jawn

6 months

I finally did it. I unfollowed Andy Constan. Like the guy, have learned a lot, have made 0 money.

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

2 years

@David_Tracey You're helping keep me level in this market - appreciate the steady drumbeat you provide, esp. when I want to FOMO into puts

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

2 years

@PauloMacro Yup. This is my edge today if people pump the market. JPow CLEARLY wants the labor market to concede ground... and it AIN'T happening. I am also confident they consider forward looking items like: (a) energy is already quite low; (b) food/commodities have been rising; (c) stocks

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

2 years

@hmeisler I am, which means it won't happen. Which means no, I'm not. I think.

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

1 year

How is VIX spiking and the market doing basically nothing special?

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

2 years

I'm positioned net short but feels like we get one last spasm up above 4100 before a pullback

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

2 years

@leonardkl So it would dramatically decrease teacher pay over 5 years

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

6 months

Is he right? Maybe. Should you trade on this? Absolutely not until you see it show up in price with meaningful, time sustained breaks below MAs.

Alf

@MacroAlf

6 months

In 1999 and in 2007 rates were above 5%. Yet people were bidding Dot Com stocks and banks were lending money to people without an income. Animal spirits and euphoria. Exactly like today.

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

1 year

@GodsOneNation @ploughmansfolly Counterpoint: if you are internet-pilled and read internet junk all day, you might go down into a dark place while accruing a strong vocabulary. Also, not for nothing, it's wild to assume an immigrants kid can't speak English well.

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

4 months

Remember this going around like Jan 2023? And everyone said we were in Complacency? Feels like Belief right now.

Compounding Quality

@QCompounding

4 months

@FoundersPodcast @naval 10. The psychology of a market cycle:

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

2 years

@Barchart I'd say Bill Ackman was never particularly credible

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

1 year

So when do we think Ken Griffin runs for president? America loves a shitbag.

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

2 years

@jdcmedlock Gotta hydrate

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

1 year

@dril Hats off

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

6 months

@DamasceneMoment @FitPhilospher Completely agree with this. Furus may well be great traders, but can I replicate that even if they tell me 95% of what they do? No.

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

1 year

@TripleDTrader How much of the income do they make? How much wealth do they have?

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

1 year

I might need to take a huge stake in $MSFT

cephalopod

@macrocephalopod

1 year

sorry what the fuck

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

6 months

@DBillKaplan I feel free

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

6 months

@nope_its_lily I agree about process / ideas over trades.

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

2 years

Thinking about this today

Reformed Tr🅰️der

@Reformed_Trader

2 years

$SPX beware the range breakout

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

2 years

@TradingThomas3 I sure did

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

10 months

@PauloMacro Check out $SMH

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

2 years

@theStevenRuiz I'm being sincere here - who else didn't get a longer look when they should have? Like I know about Leaf, Couch, etc getting too long. And Peyton throwing tons of picks first year. I'm genuinely just not well versed here.

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

2 years

It's interesting what being offsides does to you mentally. I'm just tired rn. Accepted I lost a lot. Still have tons of theta to burn thru on my puts, but I almost wanna quit just to stop thinking about it. It's just like when I put my bonus in VOO in March 2022...

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

1 year

Want to capitulate. Sick of being short. What a top signal...

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

1 year

@Crussian17 "10% upside in hard landing" 😂

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

6 months

@sameas_myname Absolutely. A comment on me in this as well! Can I do it? No, not with a full time job.... and maybe not even without one.

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

1 year

@BradMunchen I tend to agree we are in endgame sometime in next 3 quarters. I can see scummy accounting carrying the day this next quarter. Maybe even another if something breaks right. But the margins are gone, production is ramped into the sky, nowhere to hide anymore.

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

2 years

@atrupar I stopped saying this from 2018-2022 until now: I do NOT know how he comes back from this. Without causing civil war.

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

1 year

@lukeisamazing I assume she only dates very good looking guys

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

2 years

@eliant_capital I used Grab multiple times during a recent trip to Vietnam / Thailand. They are good and used everywhere. No subway system in Saigon!

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

2 years

@amazonholder1 It gaps up to start every week and then plummets by end of week

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

2 years

@TradingThomas3 Feels like it doesn't matter much unless extreme. $NFLX crapped thr bed on EPS, companies are beating less than usual on revised down earnings. Market doing what it wants.

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

2 years

@Chris201450 @rbswingtrader You're easily my favorite account on here. All I can ask for is transparency and a reasonable track record, you got plenty of both.

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

1 year

@David_Tracey Pretty sure JPow is not a fan of Yellen

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

2 years

If this market is what I think it is, $UPST will print even though the rev guidance is puke

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

2 years

@David_Tracey The more my frustration peaks, the more I know it's getting close lol. Just sucks. Proud that I'm not revenge trading or breaking my risk mgmt rules.

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

1 year

Legit fascinated to see $NVDA earnings

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

2 years

@kylegriffin1 Thank you, Georgia

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

10 months

I am so grateful for @dampedspring tweeting after QRA. Saved my ass last week.

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

2 years

So many head fakes

Reformed Tr🅰️der

@Reformed_Trader

2 years

$SPX beware the range breakout

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

9 months

I usually ignore these, but uh???

Barchart

@Barchart

9 months

Exxon Mobil Insider Trading Alert 🚨🚨🚨 Board of Directors member Jeffrey Ubben dumps his entire $XOM stake worth $216.1 million

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

1 year

Counterpoint: his name is Grady Dick

Blank Slate

@blankslate2017

1 year

Is Grady Dick a NBA player? Not convinced. Great shooter, but not particularly strong, not a great athlete, not a good defender.

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

6 months

Think I'm going to start employing the wheel with $GOOG + maybe some more aggressive put selling. It's the most enticing mega play to me right now. I think the Gemini stuff is overblown.

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

2 years

No notes 12/10

Qondi

@QondiNtini

2 years

🎥 A Short Film: Earnestly Ernest Starring Farmer Earnest and Senator Jon Ossoff

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

2 years

@cullenroche The Fed has really hurt the little guy, but the economy is strong - world is in harmony.

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

2 years

@RJRCapital Appreciate your market commentary, this is all really helpful to a newbie like me

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

2 years

@blakestonks Would be 0% surprised if we go to 4200 for a hot minute

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

1 year

Picked up small $DIS position long term. Couldn't help myself. Next target around 66.

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

6 months

Louisiana is worse than a third world country in some ways. Would not live there with these rules.

Taniel

@Taniel

6 months

things Louisiana just did, all within days: —speed up executions —expand qualified immunity —end mechanisms to release people from prison —move all 17-year olds into adult courts & detention —jail people for technical violations of prob and more...

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

2 years

@tallnfat @RJRCapital 600 BP drop incominggggg

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

6 months

@tezzemcgee It's trash. I've greatly scaled back any form of trading in this environment. Waiting for fat pitches. Missed AI, oh well.

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

1 year

Just based on where I am emotionally, it feels like this next week will truly be the crescendo of bear fucking. Cuz it would be brutal to me. I remain quite net short. I have some dry powder to deploy if we pop. I am in unleveraged short ETFs with about half my shorts, too.

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

2 years

@StonkChris I am going with @JLinWins advice on relative strength and added TWLO, AMZN, PYPL, couple others over last month. They are 1-6 months lagged from stocks like NFLX, META that are steadily filling gaps (imo).

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

2 years

@blakestonks Thanks, man. Needed this tonight lmfao

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

1 year

@NateSilver538 I read every Nate tweet while visualizing very exaggerated finger wagging and head bobbing. And nasty pauses following sharp emphasis on random words.

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

1 year

@jamesbulltard7 Credit cards were paid down by 2021, now they are replenishing those balances

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

2 years

Go birds

lauren

@Very__Regular

2 years

philadelphia is the only major american city that still suffers from medieval township problems. wild boars menace locals after dark, cholera outbreak at the communal well, locals riot and burn down the constabulary. if i heard about any of these happening i wouldn't blink

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

6 months

@BobEUnlimited That's a me problem.

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Kevin

@kevin_jawn

1 year

We are so fucked lol

Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay)

@SpecialSitsNews

1 year

“Recently, the IRS has accelerated payouts from a pandemic-era tax benefit known as the Employee Retention Credit (ERC). We estimate over $220 billion has been disbursed so far ($130 billion this fiscal year) and data on outstanding claims suggests there’s at least another $120