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@Reformed_Trader

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#DayTrader #SwingTrader NOT a financial advisor. Do not buy or sell based off my tweets. I may be buying, selling, or holding any stock mentioned. Hebrews 13:5

https://t.co/CBkM2Rftwh
Joined January 2018
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
4 years
Everyone wants to buy low and sell high until it's time to buy low
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$SPY "it's too obvious. I'll fight the pattern since that's what it means to be contrarian"
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$SPY rally is done. Back on June 16th I posted this and many dismissed it saying it was too unlikely for a rally that steep. Here we are, and now everyone is dismissing my call for the rally being over. Big wave down coming as we head into midterms
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$SPY it's over
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$SPX back at the trend and nearly everyone is very bullish. The last two days I've seen the most bears capitulate, since the bear market started.
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$SPY we've never seen this happen before. The bottom must be in
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$SPY updated chart
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$SPY buckle up
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$SPX 3 days straight now
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$SPX another monthly view with the monthly 30sma (purple) and monthly 9sma (white). This particular death cross has only flashed 3 times in the last 23 years.
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$SPY is this the trap being set or is it different this time? Next week will be huge for the trend
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$SPY ok. Regardless what you think about today vs 2008, the fact we’ve followed the 2008 analog so closely up to this point is straight up weird.
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
"Bro just trade what's in front of you. Follow the trend" The trend
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$SPY weekly chart: on a longer time frame it becomes more obvious what is missing for a bottom. Volume. Instead of volume surging we are seeing volume decreasing as we drop further.
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$SPY back at the rising trend of the rising wedge. *When* this breaks down I expect the move to be brutal. Remember, the Fed and the Treasury have both been removing lots of liquidity.
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$SPY we've never seen this before
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$SPX another perspective on the latest pattern. Notice after the main downtrend rejection there has been a retrace to another downtrend that has marked the peak before the next downleg. This has happened at the end of the consolidation phase.
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$SPY have a feeling this won't end the way bulls are thinking
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$QQQ looks like a massive inverted cup and handle
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$SPX beware the range breakout
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$SPY rising wedge, gap, overthrow. Looks awfully familiar
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
🧵Three things to watch in coming weeks/months: 1) Diesel shortage (~25 days of supply) prices likely to spike 2) Second railroad union votes down labor deal needed to avoid nationwide strike 3) Growing Pile of Distressed Debt Signals Coming US Default Wave
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
What better time than to start bringing out the 2008 comparisons again to tick everyone off! There are definitely more differences now than just a month ago when I last posted this model comparison. The main thing is the overall structure eerily similar.
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
How many bulls will be triggered? $SPY $QQQ
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$SPY bulls will keep drawing their inverse head and shoulders
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$VIX getting close. This setup has preceded volatility breakouts all year so far.
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$SPY all 3 of my closely followed indicators have given off sell signals. The last 3 times they've all triggered together it has had led to more downside with the last time in December having the smallest follow through. I believe this next downleg will be more similar to the
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$SPY The CCI has been a good tool in spotting trend reversals and confirmations this year. The pattern has been bearish divergence, break below the zero line, then a rebound to the zero line (give or take) after several days of consolidation or bounce, followed by a kill candle.
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$SPX $SPY inverted cup and handle. If you are not familiar with the pattern then look it up. Very powerful. Credit to @eliant_capital for spotting this
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$TSLA on top $NVDA on bottom. When this corrects it will wipe out many
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$SPY updated daily chart: We could end up trading out nearly identical to the last two major bear market rallies. As long as we're trading inside the rising wedge bulls have the upper hand. Once we break and close below the wedge is when bears have a real chance at making a move
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
We've seen this a few times this year where all major indexes including $VIX is green. Normally signals a big reversal is coming.
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
Bull thesis: Falling earnings don't matter, rising rates don't matter, strengthening dollar doesn't matter, debt ceiling doesn't matter, QT doesn't matter, sticky inflation doesn't matter, recessionary signals don't matter, yield curve inversions don't matter Trend line matters
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$SPX at the top of declining resistance
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$SPX closed slightly below its 200sma for the first time since covid.
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$SPX look out below
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$SPY hmmm
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$VIX walked down the entire day and $SPY has struggled all day. Passive flows being used to keep SPY from cratering. Soon VIX reverses and SPY will not be able to hold up imo
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
Yields rallying with stocks. Can't even begin to describe how bizarre today's action is
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
For those who don't remember or weren't trading in 2018, this is what happened to short Vol instruments
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
Interesting fact: $VIX dropped below 20 in August of 2008 Many people looking at VIX dropping as an all clear indicator do not know this
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
I believe the next downturn could be violent. Timing could be difficult but I believe we are very close to stalling out. Upside is very limited in my view vs the downside
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$SPY up and liquidity down.
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
MSFT -7.8%, GOOG -9.8%, AAPL -2%, AMZN -4.7%, META -16.4% SPY -0.56%
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$SPY and we're there. Let's see how this plays out
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$SPY so far on track
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$SPY 4 hour chart. Last time we had a pattern like this was... last FOMC
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$SPY $SPX very strong close right at the downtrend. If you think a bear market ends as soon as it breaks the downtrend, I have some sad news. It's never that simple. You will be challenged to find a bear market that respected its downtrend the entire bear market.
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
When the bull case becomes rates don't matter, yield curve inversions don't matter, earnings and outlook doesn't matter, inflation doesn't matter, a stronger dollar doesn't matter, geopolitical tensions don't matter, it's different this time, only up, etc. you should be concerned
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$SPX I'm watching this closely this week. If this is like the previous bear market rallies then today (possibly tomorrow) should mark the top before the next down leg. I am building bearish positions again after covering 3/2 when I sent out the warning of a move up
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$TSLA on top $AAPL on bottom. Retail still playing knife catching. What could go wrong...
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$SPX hourly: so far so good. Next week should be fun
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$SPY hanging man close. Now needs confirmation.
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
It doesn’t matter how you look at things. From Fed cycles, to stock-bond cycles, to stock-economic cycles. None of these cycles suggests a bottom is in. If anything they suggest a top was put in. Energy is the last to peak. It’s never different this time
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$SPY got a spinning top on the weekly close. The 50sma (blue) below the 100sma (white) is more prominent this week (death cross).
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
4 years
Chances Biden forgot there’s a stock market?
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$SPX quarterly chart (showing yesterday's close unfortunately, but close enough). Notice the MACD. First quarter it's flipped from positive to negative since mid 2008 and Q1 2001
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
What has happened when the weekly 30ema crosses below the weekly 90 ema? 🧵 Since 1973 it's only happened 5 times and currently doing it for the 6th time
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$SPY spinning its wheels and both bulls and bears continue to take victory laps. Nothing has happened yet
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$AMD I'm going short here
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$SPY feeling an exciting close coming
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
5 months
$SPY
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$SPX closed right at the top of the wedge. Maybe we get an overthrow tomorrow before pulling back. Otherwise, we should retrace some of today's massive move
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$SPY updated 2008 analog comparison. Say what you want but we're still following this for now
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
3 months
$GME what a chart. The entire candle today is above the upper BB suggesting a substantial breakout is in the works *not financial advice
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$SPY great eye, Allen. The two candles are nearly identical to the 2 from mid August top.
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@AllenFO37317233
Allen FOX
@AllenFO37317233
2 years
@Reformed_Trader check out the candles from August 16 and 17. Pretty much identical to the last two days.
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$AAPL the general has not fallen yet but is getting close.
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$SPX hit the upper trend of the megaphone. Could chop around more before making a decisive move but I still expect a big move back down by next week.
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
In 2008 we bounced about 11.5% in two days after making a new low for the year. That ended up marking the final stage before the crash. I'm not saying we are going to crash or that this is 2008. I'm showing why it's essential to remain cautious during the most volatile markets
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
Not a 0 DTE
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
4 years
Over the next few weeks I will be out. I will check in periodically. My wife and I are adopting and we will be traveling to meet our new daughter!
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$SPX monthly (showing yesterday's close). Huge rejection at the monthly 20sma. The last two times we had similar rejections we were at 3600s within a month. The monthly 50sma looks like a potential target.
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$SPX 5 min chart. Looks like a bull trap to me. Rising wedge plus overshoot
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$SPX updated hourly: still expecting this pattern to trade out next week
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$SPY daily: shows the breakdown is already starting. We've seen this same pattern/setup two previous times this year. Both the CCI and stochastics suggesting another peak is in/near for this bear market rally.
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$SPX monthly: Taking a step back from all the short term time frames you can see we are still well above the long term trend. More importantly, we are back under the steep rising trend that acted as resistance before record QE and 0% rates. I believe we will test the rising
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
Dollar green, yields green, VIX green, SPY green
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$SPY weekly: Where's the capitulation volume?
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
Nearly a 3% drop in $SPX from the high and VIX is making a new low for the day
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$SPX poked above a trend I pointed out earlier this week but quickly pulled back and closed at it. It has been a point of rejection. CCI jumped to the 0 line. Notice the trend has been when coming out of oversold levels it spikes towards 0 before a large pullback (arrows)
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$VIX turns green on the day with the major indexes bright green...
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
4 years
$SPAQ everyone wants to buy low till it's time to buy low
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
We are at the level of market insanity that a fed member openly laughs at the thought of Wall Street losing the fight against the Fed, and still markets ignore said risk.
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$SPY just a wild guess on how this could play out
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
Had a conversation with a money manager that manages accounts for high net worth clients. Here’s one thing he said: I know a sustainable bottom isn’t in because I haven’t lost sleep yet, and I haven’t gotten sick to my stomach.
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
Never seen my feed more giga bearish. As a bear that makes me cautious. Let’s see what NFP brings in the morning
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
The Fed has declared war on the economy and investors are completely blinded by fear of missing the next bull run, or even bear market rally, and instead they will get one of the worst drawdowns ever.
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$SPY 30min chart: maybe something like this
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$SPX $SPY My wild guess how I think this year could play out. 2 different paths that I believe are reasonable. I believe the dominant headwinds are sticky inflation, debt ceiling crisis (early June), and recession/capitulation in the 2nd half. IMO 3000 min before bear can end.
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
1 month
$QQQ the biggest warning sign for me is QQQ not even coming close to filling its gap like $SPY did last week. Keep in mind that QQQ often peaks a month or more before SPY does. Seeing relative weakness in the Qs vs SPY cannot be ignored.
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
1 month
$SPX current line in the sand
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
Sentiment today: At the open: short squeeze! 2 hours after the open: we’re headed straight to 3500 to retest the low Just before the close: what is happening? After hours: netflix earnings confirmed we bottomed
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$SPX 30min chart. My wild guess. I'm loaded up in my puts now
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
In 3 days VIX has dropped 12% and SPY hasn't gone anywhere
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$NVDA big weekly shooting star
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
Since 10/12 $SPY has gone up roughly 3.7% while $TLT has dropped 4.5% One is lying and we all know who
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$SPY Bulls drawing out their inverse head and shoulders just like they were back in September while they ignore the larger head and shoulders pattern
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
That was fast
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$TSLA what a lovely candle. If we get a gap down plus a red bar we could be looking at a bearish abandoned baby. Yup, sounds weird but it's a rare 3 day pattern that is often a strong reversal signal. .
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
$SPY early signs of a reversal on a rising wedge breakdown after running into resistance last week. Always room to backtest the breakdown before heading lower. Based on this current setup I expect new lows before end of the year or very early 2023
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
2 years
These violent swings are not bullish if anyone was wondering
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@Reformed_Trader
Reformed Tr🅰️der
@Reformed_Trader
8 months
I'm sure this will be a divisive post but $NVDA looks topped
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