mostly investing opinions with some warriors basketball and politics sprinkled in. all opinions are my own and not any recommendation to others to buy/sell
OMG cramer is proposing ppl buy $sark on a play to short $arkk stocks from these levels now??!! WTF??!! Means bottom is in and go long $arkk now. Time to do that was a lot earlier than now, just unbelievable timing
Buying hard tmrw, large caps like $crm, $adbe, maybe $pypl, some $arkk for a trade. Stupid for us to be down this much on Ukraine, ppl will buy this discount
@Holmes1618
Inflation much higher than ppl think, demand getting destroyed while prices rise, costs going up everywhere, consumer acting like has no savings, said it’s like the moment in the Big Short where ppl were in the room watching Bear Stearns fall. Thinks consumer will get run over
Just spent an hour on the phone with $trit IR:
1) company has 56 employees of which 6 are engineers related to the platform who are managed by Ashish. The key is in addition they outsource to India additional 50-80 tech contractors at any given time who they used to launch Kratos
YTD as of yday, Up from 1,005% at end of Nov...never owned $tsla or any EV stock or spac til this month when made little on $ipoc & $xl, pretty inconsequential. Top 10 returns came from $lyft, $roku, $pins, $fb, $crwd, $gogo, $zm, $amd, $insg, $estc. 50% in dec after 116% nov...
Harrowing end to $rh call where Gary says there’s no soft landing in housing, it’s crashing. Same exact numbers as 2008/2009, isn’t buying back stock till things stabilize. Expects to get worse before better. This q beat came from faster backlog fulfillment & pull fwd from q4…
$pton mgmt needs to be fired:
Mansion parties, tread recall drama, buying extra capacity at peak demand, disastrous price cut now followed by setup fees, saying no cap raise then raising 2 weeks later, 40% layoffs now saying “not set in stone”, “not complete” production halt
Spent hours going through $upst 10q yday as wanted to understand it better & while I’d be lying if claimed to understand everything there were enough 🚩 that I won’t be getting back in. Very sure someone is building a huge short here & short report will come out at some point
Real estate is insane….we bid what we thought was decently on a home yesterday and just found out it sold for 250k+ above our bid where we were almost 200k above ask
Best overlooked opportunities in market id buy right now:
$asan: only 20.5B market cap on 460M in revs up 300%+ in 3 months, lot of room left
$bill: just 28B on 485M in revs. Multiple expansion ahead
$mdb: 34B on just 815M in revs. Prolly a triple by end of yr
So many more!
End of Nov:
Up 1122% YTD with a 108% increase during November itself (after a drop in Oct) month by month listed as well.
Stock Positions highest to lowest (from $fsly to $rkt all about the same):
$roku
$pins
$insg
$rh
$fsly
$dkng
$amd
$ntnx
$tdoc
$shop
$work
$rkt
$slgg
$sncr
Been doing a lot of thinking & honestly think $rkt could potentially be lining up for a mini $gme type moment:
1) $rkt tried to go public at 150M shares @ $20-22 however due to weak demand cut back to 100M shares @ $18. This also means pre lockup the float was just 100M or $2B
Had dinner with my mom today and though I was born in Ukraine I came to the US when I was younger. Here’s some interesting things about life in the Soviet Union:
Post the revolution all the nobles got kicked out and their houses were divided across the rest of the population 1/
Is there anyone on earth who’s been pushing $splk, $ntnx, $crm, $plan, $wday, $yext? everyone on here writing their first substack DD article on $roku at 480, $crwd at 265 or tryin to buy $net on a 2% pullback trading 50x revs or has $nvda as their top idea… Wheres the value? :)
been looking in detail into $fubo & their financials & unless im a complete idiot being an investor in this stock at these levels is madness. Dont want to appear all knowing so please correct me if wrong (especially after My Tesla post) as dont want to Lways appear negative...
We spoke to two friends in Ukraine today, one from Odessa and the other in Kharkiv:
Kharkiv: they are being bombed non stop. Our friends son is a lawyer and has joined the fight, her other son is in the US and is dying to come home to also fight…she telling him to not come
So i only lost 20 followers when i went crazy on the day of the riots and posted a lot of anti trump, cruz, and other traitors posts. Couple days later now higher than before that day. Encouraging to see people generally agree with integrity/democracy as a thing 💪🏻
I must have hit some kind of record for most % of ur income paid as taxes…over 50% combined between federal and state… in complete shock. Didnt know it was possible to pay over half and I have two kids and two properties but in CA that means nothing except ur getting screwed…
Thought it was weird that jeffries randomly upgraded $gme from 15 to 175 randomly switching their entire model to value it off sales and guess what... today gamestop announced selling shares and guess who is the sole seller...yup Jeffries. Beyond despicable & unethical imo
Wife is due any minute & i walk into the kitchen & shes power walking/doing squats & im like what are you trying to have the baby 2night? And she says dont you already want it to be here? And i say babe tomorrow is $pd investor day & $bark wells fargo conf, wait till fri! :)
If
@sundarpichai
doesn’t fire every single employee who took part in this sit in protest tmrw then he needs to resign and someone with a pair of balls needs to take the CEO job and do so immediately. Enough is enough, the culture is toxic and this is a company not a liberal think
For the love of god make sure u sell something into this rally in case its a dead cat bounce and we resume going down if yields go higher again. Now is not the time to be buying into many names up 8-10%...that time was yday. Dont zig when u should zag
Some asked for my top positions:
1) $ntnx
2) $twtr
3) $myov
4) $pd
5) $estc
6) $splk
7) $pins
8) $roku
9) $fsly
10) $plan
11) $crm
Positions 7 through 11 pretty close, difference between
#3
and
#11
about 3%. Top position 15%
Fully invested
$net trades 60x revs on 45% growth this yr & 46x fwd revs on 35% growth next yr
$fsly 14x revs on 30% growth this yr and 11x fwd revs on 25% growth next yr
At some point $net will plunge very hard
$roku call is nuts. EVERY shareholder HAS to listen to it, price action and results do no justice to how bullish the future is. The reach, monetization, IP (nielsen, big for next yr), customer return on spend, its ridiculous. So much context, theyve never shared this much info
Want to congratulate everyone on a great big up day for the dow today! Those who sold your growth stocks and bought Kellogg which is up 7% today, I congratulate you
Man..pissed off lot of ppl today! Expected it when put out thread, better for ppl to see contrarian thoughts/concerns on a popular pick & do the DD to disprove than to blindly stay in a name copying others. Good way to get conviction so hopefully even if u disagree now know more
$Amzn stock peaked at 172 on 3/21. At that time their
TTM Rev: 419B
Operating cash: 67B
FCF: 26.5B
Ads biz then was at an annual run rate of 22B and AWS at 48.5B
Amzn today
TTM Rev: 538B
Operating cash: 62B
FCF: 8B
Ads biz now at annual run rate of 41B and AWS at 85.5B
In absolute shock ceo of $asan bought $72M in stock at average of 96.50 on fri. Like really?! First bought 20M at 39 in june, 17M more at 42, 15M at 46 & another 15M at 48, 27M at 56, 18M at 58, 30M at 61, 20M at 63, & now 2 months later 72M at 96! Trades 38x fwd on 30% growth
Excited for $rkt earnings thurs to:
1) crush current q estimates
2) guide higher next q if not entire yr
3) add more to buyback or start dividend
4) announce new big partnership with $gs or similar
5) update that used a lot of the $1B buyback from last q
Fall 3-5% as a result
I feel like the entire saxena family accounts just collectively broke fintwit. Im literally going through reading all of them and laughing out loud like an idiot. Very well done
@elonmusk
One of the great things of twitter is to go back in time & see something someone said & how that turned out much later. Being able to edit that would be a huge negative for twitter imo. Ppl can delete but otherwise leave up what they said so they can’t pretend to be right later
$se is a big HF hotel stock and given the market is at highs and it’s at its lows I think it’s getting massively sold into year end due to tax loss selling not unlike the mindless constant selling that hit $meta end of last yr.
Now we know that Freefire hasn’t relaunched in
Spoke with a friend of mine here in the US who is Ukrainian. His mom only watches Russian news and nothing else at all. She is completely anti-Ukraine and pro Putin as a result and then speaking with her she told him why what Putin is doing is necessary 1/
@mcuban
Advertisers already fleeing twitter regardless of traffic, this won’t bring any back. Can have free speech all u want in principle but advertisers in a pure capitalistic decision don’t want their products next to misinformation/lies/toxicity which is coming…very bad for tesla 2
Was on a $pton space and although no position thought id share my thoughts as lot of ppl in my timeline talking about it.
First of all the stock is not “expensive” however heres what i would look at to decide upside vs downside 🧵
Just made it to 10k followers today!Thanks to everyone who contributes posting & replying to add value. This is a great community when everyone pitches in even when we might disagree as its important to know the other side of your trade. Hope ive been able to help you make $!!
putting in good till cancelled sell orders for all my $rkt & $gogo stock at ridiculously high levels so that my shares cant be loaned out to shorts. Rocket at 100 & gogo at 100. Just looking to mess up shorts at the margin, suggest everyone do this for their highly shorted names
Me: company X growth rate, billings, product, free cash flow, etc
Market: Ha Ha down 5%
Me: But company momentum, partnerships, operating leverage, bear case disproven
Market: whatever dude down another 7% just cuz Ha Ha
Me: But…
Market: down 10% just cuz you won’t shut up
Given the trading in $avpt I decided to make a thread as its my largest position & its clear ppl have no clue what they’re holding given the selling at this $10 lvl
2020 Rev: 151.5M (up 31%) w/ recurring Rev 114.5M (up 37%) & subscription rev of 91M (up 66%). Guided 194M for 21
Who buys a company at 25x revs in all stock transaction at 30% of their market cap and their stock rises 10%? Prolly first time in the history of the world this has happened. $crm and $amd called and want their stock performance back
How does $shop miss on both the top and bottom lines, have revs slow to 46% from 55% and have supply issues and is up over 7% on that. Just fucking madness
Been doing a lot of thinking & honestly think $rkt could potentially be lining up for a mini $gme type moment:
1) $rkt tried to go public at 150M shares @ $20-22 however due to weak demand cut back to 100M shares @ $18. This also means pre lockup the float was just 100M or $2B
Dow positive after down 1100. Nasdaq was down almost 5% on the day now green by .5%. We live in an insane world where retail investors are getting destroyed and will give up forever
Theres no way this giant increase in cap gains tax passes, democrats would lose 2/3 of their seats and then it will be reversed by Republicans as soon as they get in power. Absolutely shocking level of stupidity to even put it out there
Ok so here are my picks for next yr:
$insg 5.90, mid teens next yr (top gainer)
$bark 4.20 rise in fundamentals won’t happen till May when start eats rollout with marketing $’s but from there think could be $15 in a yr from this May
$ntnx 32, $60+ next yr
Unless you’re a forced seller due to margin I cant imagine hitting the sell button today on anything at these levels... if ur panicking and selling now may god hVe mercy on your soul, you’ll likely regret it shortly
Top 5 positions in order:
1) $ntnx: own stock & $30 jan leaps though sold july $25 calls this wk. Stock ran from 27 to 37 in a month yet still trades just 5.2x fwd revs growing 20%+ next yr w/ room for accel. Analyst day 6/22 but with rsi 79, could b sell news event unless shock