POV: You wake up from a 2-month comma - regional banks have collapsed, CS almost went insolvent, and BRICS is promoting their new world reserve currency.
SPX is still at 4K
TSLA deliveries +4% Q/Q with numerous price cuts and $7,500 EV tax credit to kick off the year? 18k inventory build... a new generation of baggies is born.
SIVB fails —> No bail out —> Circle banks deposits evaporate —> USDC fails —> Bitcoin fails —> Schwab falters of factor risk —> TD ameritrade goes extinct.
Fed has now eliminated crypto bros & day traders. Inflation is fixed.
Thx for playing.
Remember when $WMT gave a profit warning and fell 10% on a grim outlook?
The stock has now rallied 12.5% and is above the prices it saw pre-warning.
$WMT reports Q2 earnings tomorrow morning.
Zack Morris after beating allegations successfully pumped his first promote to $10
Andrew Tate & Portnoy are sitting on single-day realized gains that have outpaced a decade of HF performance
Roaring Kitty's account for all we know might be hacked
And you're bearish?
Interesting note from GS:
Banks with <$250bn of assets accounted for 50% of U.S. commercial and industrial lending, 60% of residential real estate lending, 80% of commercial real estate lending and 45% of consumer lending.
FOMC prediction:
Regardless of what the policy rate decision is. Powell will lose control of the narrative (if he has not already), it will be crystal clear come 3:30pm.
I’ve complied a list of non AI stocks that just go up. Take my advice and don’t even bother running numbers on these if you want to avoid brain aneurisms.
$WING
$FND
$IOT
$CELH
$COST
$CAVA
$HD
$DKS
Valuation doesn’t matter here - just buy.
What am I missing?
Don't think I've seen a faster sell-side flip for a single name than $NVDA. Almost every analyst went from extremely underweight just two months ago now to top pick from AI generated capex...
Many charlatans in the comments heckling me for my call on a nasty sell. Well guess what - Rates & FX markets blew up so bad this morning that global CBs had to step in from preventing a tail risk spiral. Just bc your 0DTE calls worked out does not mean you need to dunk on me!
$AAPL recent 20% rally seems to be the most manufactured. They already cut top-line growth for Q2 (likely to revise down further for Q3). 130 handle in June made much more sense for this forecast. If they miss and open down -5% I'd imagine some serious pressure from 401k sellers.
Step 1: Bid tech stonks to 50x FCF
Step 2: Hawkish discourse to reverse asset price-driven wealth effect on inflation
Step 3: Have a regional bank fail on duration mismatch
Step 4: Front run incoming dovish reaction function by bidding tech stonks to 60x FCF
Step 5: Repeat🥳
Shorting AAPL on valuation bc the growth story has no more is a fools errand. It will take a big product launch flop to crack the multiple. AR/VR likely is your candidate.
Eoq markup means every single PM will be forced into yoloing semis next week. Fun enough we have MU reporting Tuesday who is experiencing one of the most intense inventory ex write-down gluts of the past two decades.
Going to be thrilling to watch🥳
Unpopular Opinion: Regardless of whether you think cheap/expensive, this bear market doesn't end until $AAPL trades at a discount to the S&P 500 (historical norm).
Tinfoil hat here - but a large reason for the mkt ramp in Jan was pulled liquidity from the TGA as Janet Yellen kept gov funding afloat while the debt ceiling negotiations were in standoff. Setting up for a juicy sell the news event.
Few understand Larry Fink & $BLK is the Fed. During the 2018 taper tantrum Fink had an emergency meeting with Powell ultimately leading to consecutive rate cuts when the market expected hikes. Double digit inflation changes this…
LARRY FINK CEO OF BLACKROCK WHICH IS THE WORLDS LARGEST ASSET MANAGER WITH OVER 10 TRILLION IN ASSETS SOLD ANOTHER 8% OF HIS OWN STOCK LAST WEEK. THIS IS HIS BIGGEST STOCK SALE AFTER COVID , HIS LAST BIGGEST STOCK SALE WAS RIGHT BEFORE THE COVID CRASH. $BLK
Happy vanna/veta/vera/gamma/charm roll off day 🥳
Remember your stonk is only down because of quad witching, not because it is a shitco.
You are actually a great stonk picker
But untill zen
After finishing my much-procrastinated Christmas shopping, I can now confirm that the US debt/GDP at 130% is accurate. Our entire economy is running on credit.
Judging by this Statement, committee seems worried about the mkt/fin conditions getting ahead of itself propelling upside risk to inflation in Q1. Expecting a hawkish powell during the presser.
Just arrived in Greece, was ecstatic to exchange some dollars for euros until the lady at the counter tells me the parity only exists in the stock market. Welcome to Europe! 🥳
Wouldn't be the surprised if large-cap tech desrisks ~10% over the next two weeks as px leading into 1Q reporting doesn't justify early vendor signals.
UBS -ve on MSFT cloud checks
AAPL -40% y/y PC sales
Both of these sitting near upper bound of historical fwdx multiples.
So first weekend out with the new adult beverage stipulations. Safe to say
#Budlight
is fully canceled. Great job to the crowd. It’s amazing what people can achieve in unison.
Jerome Powell walking into the press conference tomorrow and telling Nickileaks Timiraos that the job isn't finished until everyones 401k is zeroed out.
Jpow needs to have his furry suit on tomorrow or else look out below. 2YR Yield priced down 30bps in anticipation of a lower FFR due to sharp downwards velocity in CPI. Anything less of cinderella-soft, markets will be under stress. Rate cuts now expected in May 23.
I guess Kuroda was fed up with the Japanese economy importing inflation. Little does he know a time bomb was just set off. The Yen carry trade might be the most levered instrument in all of the financial world this year.
👇👇👇
MSFT growth will be stagnant for a while and 25x multiple with a 1.8Tn valuation very expensive relative to the rest of the mkt. That being said bears might still be fcked.
Today marks quarter end: "A period were logic deceases and FOMO is copious"
My favorite Quarterly letter savior is $AI
The ticker is sexy and might make LPs drool BUT C3 is trading 16x on -37% EBIDTA margins😮💨
Will be thrilling when PMs puke these names next week🥳