*Book announcement*
My new book--Seeking Truth and Hiding Facts--is available for pre-order.
A few numbers came to define Chinese politics, until they did not count what mattered and what they counted didn't measure up.
Short thread.
Since it’s Friday, I’m gonna go full lukewarm: China will muddle through this economic moment. Central govt balance sheet will absorb some bad debt, new acronyms will appear, people will still eat baozi, complain about neighbors, and pray for high test scores.
As a political scientist who writes about political legitimacy, authoritarianism, and climate change, I was excited that APSR published an article on precisely those topics. That piece incited a furor on this very website. I wrote about it here. /1
The energy transition will be hard, and decarbonization maybe harder, but it's not as depressing as that Vaclav Smil piece in the NYT suggested. Short (maybe?) thread.
Functioning at all in this world is hard. Doing so holding opposing ideas in one's head is even harder. But necessary.
A short thread on the *catastrophic* *success* of China's zero COVID policy
If you're struck all of a sudden with a need to understand why youth unemployment stats are being hidden and more broadly why numbers matter so much in Chinese politics, may I be so bold as to recommend my book: Seeking Truth and Hiding Facts.
this is a good comparative example of the kind of language used in the Wuhan safety training. note that - as is pretty routine - it is *being sent out by a department a long way from where the accident happened as part of a general safety push*
US: rules-based international order. rules-based international order. rules-based international order. rules-based international order.
Also US: can I get an exception?
China's COVID-19 statistics are problematic.
But they aren't the real problem.
Smart governments saw enough of the virus, the numbers, and the actions China took to protect their people. The US failed to do so.
My op-ed with
@jessicacweiss
Matt Pottinger on China: “We saw a baby shark and thought that we could transform it into a dolphin. We kept feeding the shark and the shark got bigger and bigger. And now we're dealing with a formidable, great white."
@NikkeiAsia
より
I'm talking my book here, but I do love it when reports say things like "[India and China] continue to account for most of the rise in global demand: China will account for 54% while India for 9%."
Yes, these two things are comparable. Completely. No notes.
@BeijingPalmer
Alien civilizations 40 light-years away racing towards earth confused about why these companies keep letting documentary crews in to watch their embarrassing antics.
Can we talk about this?
1. Some data have definitely disappeared altogether. For instance, good luck finding a recent 全国地市县财政统计资料 (if you do, buy it and digitize it immediately).
2. But as big if not bigger is bureaucrats privatizing these data and selling them.
@AlecStapp
Still small compared to their solar and wind deployment. "The 2035 goal of an additional 147 gigawatts" vs. "108 additional GW of solar this year"
My probably number one annoyance is the sense that this doesn't really matter to anyone alive today. There's no mention that air pollution kills millions every year. now. Millions.
Can we please knock off with the “some places will benefit from climate change” talking points? Which places, exactly? The ones burning or those lucky enough to just breathe in the smoke?
AIR QUALITY ALERT | Smoke from Eastern Canada wildfires continues to stream through Central Ohio, decreasing air quality. Sensitive groups like people with asthma, COPD, the elderly, & children should limit time outdoors today.
Expect smoky skies yet again.
@nbc4i
#ohwx
Wow. US-built massive multimillion $$ Database in
#Afghanistan
, to modernize the state, has reportedly fell in hands of
#Taliban
and could be used in establishing their surveillance state.
AP investigation:
"That's all I hear about now. Turn on TV, 'Covid, Covid, Covid Covid Covid.' A plane goes down, 500 people dead, they don't talk about it. 'Covid Covid Covid Covid.' By the way, on November 4th, you won't hear about it anymore ... 'please don't go and vote, Covid!'" -- Trump
Thread. Xi's common prosperity drive could seem to put the communist back in the CCP, but Xi's speech shows how baked into capitalist thinking the party remains.
I wrote a short explainer and a bit more behind the scenes.
I’ll miss seeing a good tweet with a typo, trying to like it, seeing it’s been deleted, then waiting for the poster to repost it without the typo and then like it. A real moment to meditate on the universe.
Smil sees targets yes or no. He's imposing a binary on a continuous world. Every bit of action -- every ton of carbon kept in the ground, every acre of forest preserved, every 0.1 degree of warming averted is massively important. That was the whole point of the 1.5 report.
Short thread of China reading.
1. Common prosperity hype overlooks that Xi's mostly been a tax cutter, making China's fiscal situation increasingly dire. See
@hancocktom
for the latest. /1
1. 95% is not 100%
2. Infection with the virus SARS-COV-2 is not getting the disease COVID-19.
3. Seven days is not 10-14 days.
4. One dose of a two dose vaccine course is ... not the full vaccine regiment.
The story misreads Chinese documents and gets confused about scientific details. We live in a world where China matters. Knowledge of China is needed to understand our world. Hire people with experience and expertise.
In the end, though, it's important to remember that China locked down Wuhan and most of Hubei's population early on 23 January when the confirmed case count of the province was only 259.
I don't like the term "rules-based international order" on principle. But it is worth ditching on practical grounds.
No one really can define what it means.
And it doesn't resonate with the "Global South," especially when framed against China's messaging.
It's solipsistic. 1/
This.
"The very idea that authoritarian regimes (“autocracies”) may enjoy popular support is hard to fathom for democrats. Models of authoritarian regimes often entail tacit ideological assumptions, and many are driven by methodological fashions."
A syllogism:
1. Writing goal of 500 words a day.
2. A picture is worth a thousand words.
3. If I add a picture to the manuscript, I don't have to write for two days.
But Wuhan has reported 0 cases for the past few days, which feels more like a propaganda effort (total victory in the People's War on the virus!) than an honest accounting of the situation.
@caixin
and
@SixthTone
have stories today showing uncounted cases.
It's a catastrophe because fossil pollution is killing millions every year. It's a catastrophe because it's destroying ecosystems and making pandemics more likely. It's a catastrophe because it's destroying lives, erasing locations from the map, making towns uninhabitable.
China is a country of 1.4 billion people—adorable babies, children struggling to learn to read, teenagers finding themselves, workers and unemployed people building solar panels and assembling phones and cutting hair, retirees—governed by the CCP.
China is not a shark.
Those developments give us the chance to remake the world, better, cheaper, cleaner, quieter, and more in keeping with sustainable frameworks for generations to come. So, yes to realism. Yes to accuracy. But enough with impossibility and simplicity and the status quo.
The new
@drvolts
podcast on biofuels is SO important. Food for fuels needs to be minimized ASAP. Biodiesel is a disgrace, pushing the palm oil industry that’s deforesting the tropics. LAND matters.
Weak Chinese economic data but not for the energy transition.
619,000 electric cars in July. Production is up over 110% y-o-y.
Solar continues rapid growth.
And for all the "China coal" stories that are being written this year, thermal power is still down 2.5% y-o-y.
In the very unlikely event that any
@cornell
undergrads interested in my new Politics of Climate Change course this fall see this, come to tomorrow's lecture. We'll get registration and sections sorted out afterwards.
*job* Cornell's East Asia Program is looking for a manager. This administrative position helps work with the director (that's me) to develop and implement a strategic vision. We're particularly interested in people with East Asia expertise/experience.
We need more C. Lea Sheas out there.
"Beijing threatens to seep into the nooks and crannies of the liberal international order like butter on an English muffin — clogging the arteries of freedom with the cholesterol of communism and corruption."
So, China's National Bureau of Statistics is going to drop new economic stats during the 20th Party Congress right as my new book on the politics of numbers in China comes out? Who do I send a fruit basket to over at NBS?