dilksy @dilksybab Twitter profile

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dilksy

@dilksybab

3 years

@FF_Trout Wait, you mean once you start getting lucky it doesn’t just carry on happening…?

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dilksy

@dilksybab

3 years

@OfficialFPL Can't tag everyone playing the game unfortunately.

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dilksy

@dilksybab

2 years

@OfficialFPL Serious managers don’t play ‘guess the price.’ They conserve their energy for the long fight ahead.

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dilksy

@dilksybab

3 years

91. 170K > 9K Astonishing week. After two hard seasons trudging along with negative variance for a respectable rank, I’m so far getting an obscene amount of the opposite. Move this week likely involves saying goodbye to Toney.

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dilksy

@dilksybab

1 year

Mohammed Kudus ending up at West Ham instead of Brighton would be like adding a big spoon of Garam masala to a bowl of corn flakes instead of a beautiful Rogan Josh.

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dilksy

@dilksybab

3 years

FPL General

@FPLGeneral

3 years

Who are you going to captain in Gw24? 🤔 #FPL

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dilksy

@dilksybab

2 years

@OfficialFPL The cup is pure variance, a bogus contest, and it’s only overall points totals that true winners care about so if Kevin Karlsen-Vissmark is reading this I want you to know yours was a hollow victory and there is still 2,168,448 places in actual rank between us.

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dilksy

@dilksybab

2 years

With the Haaland TC failure, I’ve finally had enough. There’s no coming back. I’ve been shafted for the last time. I’m taking this moment to officially cancel my membership of Analytics FC. The data don’t work It just makes you worse But now I’ll see the grass again

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dilksy

@dilksybab

3 years

Danny Ings has a npxG+xA/90 of 0.17. José Sá is right behind him on 0.13.

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dilksy

@dilksybab

2 years

🌳 In the Vestergaarden 🌳 GW21. Salah ➡️ March A fresh start. My first week unleashed from @fplreview ’s dungeon and it’s an easy move. Thankfully, all moves are easy from now on because my entire strategy will involve getting recent points scorers. 🌍 66K

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dilksy

@dilksybab

11 months

No update from me prior to the GW due to some real life misfortune, but in fantasy land I’ve been stupidly lucky so how about a one off post-GW update because I did so well 😉 3.2m ⬆️ 179k in two GWs since WC.

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dilksy

@dilksybab

2 years

FPL Review

@fplreview

2 years

The Massive Data model is back for 22/23, and it's come with a major upgrade to the solver included! 🔂Multi-period solves 🎲 Risk modelling 🗒️ Practical planning capabilties 🔎 Navigable transfer paths 🥇 Top distinct transfer lines #FPL

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dilksy

@dilksybab

3 years

Solvers are suggesting a -8 again.

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dilksy

@dilksybab

2 years

Kane and Son will have virtually the same Expected Value (EV) until the end of the season and which one scores more will be entirely random and there’s nothing you can do about that. There’s no skill to the choice between the two. Nothing separates them. It’s a coin flip.

Andy

@LetsTalk_FPL

2 years

If it cost no transfers, would Kane owners switch to Son?

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dilksy

@dilksybab

3 years

Patson Daka is currently running at 0.92 npxG+xA/90 (0.64 npxG). We’ll see how these numbers hold up over a larger sample, but we know he put up ~0.90 npxG/90 for two seasons in Austria. There are only two other playing strikers doing anything comparable right now.

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dilksy

@dilksybab

3 years

This is probably the single most complicated period of any season that we’ll ever have to navigate. I’m pretty stumped.

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dilksy

@dilksybab

3 years

This lad tried to warn us.

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dilksy

@dilksybab

3 years

‘We are far too willing to reject the belief that much of what we see in life is random.’ - Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow, p.117

BiRInsights

@BiRInsights

3 years

In Man City's last 2 PL matches, they have earned 6 xG and scored 1 goal. In their Champions League game v Leipzig, they earned 2.4 xG but scored 6 goals. Interesting to see such a difference in quality of finishing across the competitions at this early stage in the season.

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dilksy

@dilksybab

3 years

98. 6.6K ⬆️ 1.4K It’s a weird series of events that brought me to Bruno and this positive variance. A turbulent season in which I’m so far getting lucky when it matters most. Next moves depend on any DGW news.

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dilksy

@dilksybab

1 year

Season Review of a satisfying 22/23:

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dilksy

@dilksybab

3 years

Lovely to have the game back.

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dilksy

@dilksybab

3 years

@BenCrellin This season has taught me to really embrace and (try to) enjoy the decision making process as the important part, the thing I have any control over, and then laugh and meme my way through the sickening reality of the actual football.

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dilksy

@dilksybab

10 months

🤫 Man, Amdounit Better 🤫 GW11. Trippier ➡️ TAA Zinchenko ➡️ Tsimikas There was nothing to fear and nothing to doubt. 🌍 300K

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dilksy

@dilksybab

2 years

We’re in an age where data has undeniably damaged our ability to reckon with the world, but it also offers valuable lessons. Football analytics tells us getting chances is more important than scoring goals, but people, supposedly at the top of the game, succumb to pseudoscience.

Miguel Delaney

@MiguelDelaney

2 years

Southgate on Abraham: "Tammy's had a poor run of scoring form at the wrong time... form could be more important."

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dilksy

@dilksybab

2 years

🤖 Castagne vista, baby 🤖 GW22. Rodrigo ➡️ Bruno Martinelli ➡️ Mitoma I can’t keep up the charade. Salah never left last GW. I got Rodrigo and now he’s injured, but I don’t care what variance brings: cut me open and I bleed expected data. I’m Analytics FC til I die! 🌍 78K

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dilksy

@dilksybab

9 months

🤫 Man, Amdounit Better 🤫 GW19. Tsimikas ➡️ Walker A very Merry Christmas to all those celebrating. 🌍 129K

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dilksy

@dilksybab

7 months

It's serendipitous that this (great) pod gets released in a week when analytics in FPL once again is criticised as involving no real thought or skill. This pod demonstrates how people are still thinking, they're just freed to think in a different way and about different things.

FPL Optimized

@FPLOptimized

7 months

Bonus Episode Alert! 🚀 Navigating the final FPL stretch with JC ( @FPL_Spaceman ) & Alastair (TedLassoRegen, @extramac123 ). We dive into cup uncertainties, fixture forecasts, and chip strategy optimization using solvers. A must-listen for strategic insights! 🍟

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dilksy

@dilksybab

4 years

What’s astonishing about this is the ignorance and the unwillingness to recognise how studying analytics can enable footballers to improve their on field performance. Grealish is testament to how doing this work can have profound effects.

BBC 5 Live Sport

@5liveSport

4 years

🗣 " @JackGrealish said to me, 'I need to get my numbers up'" @PeterCrouch explains why #PL players are stat-obsessed: *NEW* podcast 👉📲⚽ #backstronger | @TomFordyce | @Chris_Stark

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dilksy

@dilksybab

3 years

Nearly time for the player ranked 88th for npxG+xA/90 to demonstrate why fixtures come first when making fantasy picks.

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dilksy

@dilksybab

1 year

A reminder today that individual, untainted decision making and ‘genius’ is a myth. The gut and intuition aren’t an innate good, a quality only held by a select few, they’re formed with other people’s knowledge and resources, and get better the more you learn and unlearn.

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dilksy

@dilksybab

11 months

🤫 Man, Amdounit Better 🤫 GW8. Wildcard. And with that, my relationship with @FplSimpson is over. 🌍 3.2m

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dilksy

@dilksybab

3 years

🤖 Castagne vista, baby 🤖 GW8. Wildcard.

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dilksy

@dilksybab

1 year

Those worried about Bruno playing deep: do you know who we’re dealing with? This is Bruno Miguel Borges Fernandes! Claimer of ghost assists. Scorer of offside goals. Shithouser of pens. And vanquisher of Emi Martínez from 30 yards. It is non-owners who have everything to fear.

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dilksy

@dilksybab

3 years

🤖 Castagne vista, baby 🤖 GW16 Foster ➡️ de Gea Son ➡️ Bowen Toney ➡️ King (-4) Ran into some issues this GW, but it’s OK. If things go wrong it’s variance and if they go right I’m a genius. That’s the joy of being in Analytics FC: we’ve crafted a niche where we always win 😉

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dilksy

@dilksybab

8 months

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dilksy

@dilksybab

1 year

Hedgehog_FPL

@FplHedgehog

1 year

My take on Havertz is that whilst he’s a potentially pretty fun pick we just don’t need to do it to ourselves in GW1. Fancy play syndrome with such uncertainty around minutes and role IMO.

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dilksy

@dilksybab

2 years

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dilksy

@dilksybab

4 years

I didn’t BB in GW19 because I didn’t fancy it with SGW Leeds players, but now if I BB in GW26 it will be with two SGW Leeds players.

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dilksy

@dilksybab

3 years

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dilksy

@dilksybab

2 years

🤖 Castagne vista, baby 🤖 GW1. 🎶 Stop me, oh oh oh stop me, stop me if you think that you’ve seen this one before 🎶 Good luck for the season everyone.

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dilksy

@dilksybab

3 years

@CazzaFPL

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dilksy

@dilksybab

3 years

*Stops using ‘force exclude’ on Reece James in @fplreview Transfer Suggestor*

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dilksy

@dilksybab

4 years

This one says "I'm risky...but don't you want to live a little?"

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dilksy

@dilksybab

1 year

🤫 Man, Amdounit Better 🤫 GW1. New season. New team name. The same team as @FplSimpson and… @FplSigurd . Triumvirates back. Oh well on the Gabriel stuff. GL everyone!

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dilksy

@dilksybab

9 months

🤫 Man, Amdounit Better 🤫 GW15. Martinelli ➡️ Palmer Yes, I've sold Martinelli ahead of LUT (A) to bench Cole Palmer. Yes, this is an immediate loss of EV (I'm sorry @FplSigurd ). Yes, I'm still taking the game seriously. 🌍 430K

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dilksy

@dilksybab

3 years

@FPL_Utopian Maths makes a lot of people feel very insignificant. Some people can’t deal with the fact their intuition pales in effectiveness to machine learning. There’s resistance to mathematical comprehension because it involves comprehending that you really know little to nothing at all.

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dilksy

@dilksybab

3 years

51 (-8) 41K 🔻 47K Couldn’t expect much from this GW and so it was. Probably just Jota > Raph tomorrow.

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dilksy

@dilksybab

3 years

14 of the 27 appearances were as a substitute in a fractured campaign under a manager that disrespected him. It’s a sample of 2352 v 1402 mins. Aleksandar will be back in all our teams. He’s the chosen one. Destined to teach the FPL community the meaning of noise!

FPL Focal

@FPLFocal

3 years

Mitrovic in 27 apps this season in the Championship: 30G 7A Mitrovic in 27 apps last season in the Premier League: 3G 3A I somehow ended up with him for a while last season

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dilksy

@dilksybab

3 years

A nice resource from Andy to start the season. My extended tip 👇🏻 ‘Success in FPL is predicated on an accumulation of good decision making over the course of the season (combined with luck), not the success of your GW1 team. So don’t panic if things start poorly.’

Andy

@LetsTalk_FPL

3 years

I asked 100 FPL managers for their number one FPL tip and then put it in a 📽️ Thanks to everyone that got back to me and gave me lots of great advice for pre/early season 🙌 📺

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dilksy

@dilksybab

3 years

63 (-4) 8K ⬇️ 15K When every player that can hurt your rank returns. Entering a tough spell to navigate with bets against EO mounting and I don’t want to or can’t rectify them. Instead, I want a player going through an abysmal period of underperformance because of course I do.

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dilksy

@dilksybab

3 years

Massive respect to @BukayoSaka87 and @MarcusRashford and @Sanchooo10 who stepped up in a moment of immense pressure. It didn’t work out today, but you’re all sensational talents with so much ahead of you.

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dilksy

@dilksybab

9 months

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dilksy

@dilksybab

4 years

Operation ‘stuff the midfield with premiums’ is going well.

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dilksy

@dilksybab

2 years

🤖 Castagne vista, baby 🤖 GW31. Wildcard.

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dilksy

@dilksybab

2 years

@OfficialFPL Every transfer I make is a thread that weaves the tapestry of my greatness. Every single one matters, every move is of equal importance, when you're weaving constant perfection.

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dilksy

@dilksybab

2 years

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dilksy

@dilksybab

9 months

🤫 Man, Amdounit Better 🤫 GW17. Haaland ➡️ Solanke Mbeumo ➡️ Salah (-4) We don’t talk about the circumstances that led me here. 🌍 198K

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dilksy

@dilksybab

2 years

@analytic_fpl

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dilksy

@dilksybab

3 years

GW33 Review.

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dilksy

@dilksybab

9 months

🤫 Man, Amdounit Better 🤫 GW18. Areola ➡️ Dubravka Who doesn’t love a goalkeeper transfer? 🌍 146K

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dilksy

@dilksybab

3 years

Football is played on grass.

Analytics FC Mudded

@fpl_ongrass

3 years

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dilksy

@dilksybab

3 years

58. 65K > 41K One Chelsea player helps to make up the ground lost by putting faith in another. Tough week for moves. 2 FTs, but ideally I’d like to leave the team alone for a bit longer. Slight possibility a transfer gets burned.

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dilksy

@dilksybab

3 years

Read ‘Poker’ as FPL and ‘money’ as points. (from a chapter on ‘results based thinking’ in ‘The Mental Game of Poker’ by Tendler & Carter which I looked at again for the first time in a while after a chat with @CazzaFPL )

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dilksy

@dilksybab

3 years

Keep those Dias sales coming.

Chase

@FPL_Chase

3 years

Defensive strength of EPL teams trending over the past calendar year using npxGC 10-match rolling averages data: @fbref (no promoted teams) @FplStatsdan this time including Spurs😅

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dilksy

@dilksybab

1 year

Can't believe my eyes. A Huge EO bet against Kane has actually come through and, not only that, Big Dom Solanke has knocked out a 15 pointer at 0.8% EO. Who knew FPL could be like this?

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dilksy

@dilksybab

2 years

80. GW28 + 29: 1.9K ⬇️ 14.9K Abysmal couple of GWs. Much worse than expectation. Despite best efforts this season, it looks like I might not be ready to give up the mantle of ‘Timo Werner of the Elite 1K’ just yet.

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dilksy

@dilksybab

7 months

@DragoonFpl @FPLDwghtSchrute Most people spend a lot of time thinking about/assessing players, but most analytics managers spend more of their time thinking about/analysing the ‘paths’ or lines that solvers generate

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dilksy

@dilksybab

3 years

🤖 Castagne vista, baby 🤖 GW17. Davis ➡️ Pukki Tattoo ‘no spice, just pragmatism’ on my forehead. It’s the philosophy I live by now. No move I make will ever be exciting again.

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dilksy

@dilksybab

1 year

🤫 Man, Amdounit Better 🤫 GW5 Richarlison ➡️ Maddison A general disengagement from the game at the start of this season helps with engagement with risk. For good or bad.

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dilksy

@dilksybab

3 years

@FPLfrasier No. Not enough npxG. Which is just a succinct way of saying he doesn’t have a combination of the necessary movement, runs into the box, positioning in the box, volume of shots, or good enough shot choice (quality of shot based on position in the box in relation to def and GK).

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dilksy

@dilksybab

7 months

🤫 Man, Amdounit Better 🤫 GW25. TAA ➡️ VvD What’s that you say? Andreas Pereira is in my starting 11 for the big DGW? I don’t know what you’re on about. You’re making things up. Hallucinating. I’m worried about you. 🌍 59K

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dilksy

@dilksybab

2 years

‘Football is a coin-toss game. Logic and coincidence are evenly split. You’ve got to find a way to live with randomness in football.’ - Anderson & Sally, The Numbers Game: Why Everything You Know About Football is Wrong, p.64-65.

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dilksy

@dilksybab

2 years

@FFScout Thank you for all the great work you do.

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dilksy

@dilksybab

2 years

Here's a Season Review of my tumultuous 21/22:

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dilksy

@dilksybab

7 months

🤫 Man, Amdounit Better 🤫 GW23. Cash ➡️ Burn Álvarez ➡️ Haaland Being in the FPL Illuminati did not bring early news of the DGW and now I’m suboptimal. It’s a disgrace. 🌍 98K

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dilksy

@dilksybab

6 months

@FPL_Instinctive @FplRowan @FPLvariance @FPL_Gundo We all think in combination with and as a consequence of whatever we’re in relation to. We’re all an assemblage, an amalgam. And the ‘gut’, which a lot of people hold up as some innate, unblemished ‘good’, is just an unconscious assortment of influences.

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dilksy

@dilksybab

2 years

Got some of the good stuff.

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dilksy

@dilksybab

7 months

🤫 Man, Amdounit Better 🤫 GW24. Watkins ➡️ Darwin I watched what happened to Watkins sellers last GW and said to myself ‘yeah, I fancy some of that.’ 🌍 121K

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dilksy

@dilksybab

3 years

🦇 Praet Out of Hell 🦇 #GW31 Wildcard. I’ve been a busy boy!

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dilksy

@dilksybab

2 years

This used to mean something to me. Now all I see is fake numbers and lies.

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dilksy

@dilksybab

3 years

Miss him. Miss Mitrović. Miss Bamford and Calvert-Lewin. Just want my big xG boys back home for Christmas.

StatsBomb

@StatsBomb

3 years

Tammy Abraham, AS Roma 2021/22 The goals haven't quite come yet, but if the chances keep coming as they are...

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dilksy

@dilksybab

2 years

🤖 Castagne vista, baby 🤖 GW8. Wildcard. He’s back in my team. Nothing else matters.

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dilksy

@dilksybab

1 year

8th. My 2nd top 10 finish in four seasons. So far, it’s only the legendary 🦁👑 and I that can lay claim to that achievement. My good friend @FPL_Jan can’t quite claim it as he finished 11th this year the absolute fraud.

FPL Review

@fplreview

1 year

🏆FPL Review Data Based Champions 22/23🏆 The scan of the top 500k #FPL teams is complete! This means top managers based on @fplreview modelling can be announced. The top 250 in each rank are displayed per tab

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dilksy

@dilksybab

2 years

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dilksy

@dilksybab

3 years

If Aaron Connolly hadn’t played that friendly I’d have Neal Maupay in my team right now and I’d feel a sense of contentment I’ve never experienced in my life.

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dilksy

@dilksybab

11 months

🤫 Man, Amdounit Better 🤫 GW7. Chilwell ➡️ Trippier Jackson ➡️ Morris Don’t try this at home, kids! 🌍 3.2m

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dilksy

@dilksybab

3 years

How it ended: 59 points and a minuscule green (37 places). No doubts this is the best season I’ve played (despite not being my best rank), but also firmly believe I can play a better one. Glad I’ve got to know so many of you this year, absolutely the best thing about it.

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dilksy

@dilksybab

1 year

🤖 Castagne vista, baby 🤖 GW28. Wildcard. 🌍 55K

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dilksy

@dilksybab

3 years

dilksy

@dilksybab

3 years

Nearly time for the player ranked 88th for npxG+xA/90 to demonstrate why fixtures come first when making fantasy picks.

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dilksy

@dilksybab

3 years

76 (-4) 12K > 65K. Not only the outcome, but the manner in which this happened feels extremely harsh. That’s how it goes though: if you take risks against EO you’re playing with big swings. Variance giveth and it certainly taketh away. Rolling (hopefully).

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dilksy

@dilksybab

3 years

Adam Armstrong recorded 0.9 npxG and 0.7 xA against Watford.

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dilksy

@dilksybab

2 years

🤖 Castagne vista, baby 🤖 GW20. James ➡️ Shaw Triple Captain. Gearing up for a chip strategy that made now or 23 the realistic options for Haaland TC and prefer the fixtures and xMins this week. Uncertainty still reigns so a simple, no panic use of 1 FT and roll. 🌍 54K

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dilksy

@dilksybab

3 years

Ollie Watkins + thick lines = Golden Boot 2021/22

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dilksy

@dilksybab

2 years

Pure.

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dilksy

@dilksybab

2 years

🤖 Castagne vista, baby 🤖 GW35. Dubravka ➡️ Alisson Wood ➡️ Pukki (-4) I’m back after a much needed break from @analytic_fpl and @FPLcola ’s RMTs. Hitting my way to BB36. Praying at the temple of xG. Same as it ever was. 🌍 17K

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dilksy

@dilksybab

1 year

🤫 Man, Amdounit Better 🤫 GW3. Gabriel ➡️ Botman James ➡️ Rúben Dias First move made earlier in the week to protect value and some future lines. Pretty gruelling start with constant problems, but thankfully my hopes of constant DEF transfers weren’t derailed. 🌍 3.5M

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dilksy

@dilksybab

2 years

50. 13.2K ⬇️ 20K Season continues to unravel.

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dilksy

@dilksybab

3 years

Apparently.

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dilksy

@dilksybab

10 months

🤫 Man, Amdounit Better 🤫 GW12. Maddison ➡️ Martinelli Not a huge fan of lurching from one injury crisis to the next in this game. Also not sure about this move, but all options had their issues and sometimes it’s best to just grab the short term EV. 🌍 500K

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dilksy

@dilksybab

2 years

🤖 Castagne vista, baby 🤖 GW6. Gabriel ➡️ James So far my team has produced a pretty ludicrous amount of xG (ranked 2K coming into this week) and I’m getting plenty of positive variance. Long may it continue. 🌍 30K

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dilksy

@dilksybab

10 months

🤫 Man, Amdounit Better 🤫 GW13. Burn ➡️ Gabriel Decided to give you all a chance this week by producing a team that looks like an entry into a contest where you can only pick players from four matches. 🌍 570K

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