Hi everyone, FPL Away Kits v1.0 Chrome Extension is now (finally) available!
Have you ever wanted your players, playing away from home, to play in their away kits? No? Well... you can if you want.
Today Alexander-Arnold had 10 shot-creating actions, which is the joint-third most from a defender in the PL in one match since the start of 17/18, behind Alexander-Arnold (12) & Florent Hadergjonaj (11) (he's tied with Alexander-Arnold, Alexander-Arnold, and Alexander-Arnold)
Fábio Borges’ top 38 transfers of the FPL 2021/22 Season [a thread]
Hello everyone! 👋🫂 Join me, as I guide you on a pilgrimage into the mind of the greatest man ever to grace the beautiful (fantasy) game – from the fáb, to the unfábthomable!!! 😲🇵🇹
As if to celebrate all our players playing away next week, t, the FPL Away Kits chrome extension is now live again for the 2022/23 season!
When your players are playing away from home, they will appear in their away kits on the "my team" page.
159 (-4) • 1.1k OR
Well, that went well! ~65 pt gain on the top 10k, overtaken 90% of all the players who were ahead of me at the start of last GW. It's an outcome better than I could have dreamed of and it's completely changed what I'm playing for this season. Best GW ever.
𝖂𝖆𝖞𝖓𝖊 𝕿𝖗𝖔𝖚𝖙𝖑𝖊𝖉𝖌𝖊
GW28 - Bench Boost
Out: Semedo, Zaha
In: James, Fraser
Hopping on the popular bandwagon of double NEW attack. I was gonna go for something logical but I saw Fraser was recently nominated for PL player of the month, so he should be in great form.
@MagnusCarlsen
@guardian
@Opta
On behalf of the entire FPL community, I would love to see you go on Meet the Manager on the
@FFScout
YouTube channel, to see a bit more insight!
Sure! Right now in FPL, you can purchase about 0.3-0.35 points each GW for every £1M you spend.
This means that avoiding a £0.1M drop before GW2 should yield an average of comfortably more than 1 point across the rest of the season.
I think playing the TC in GW2 is a pretty bad idea and the process behind it is symptomatic of some ways FPL analytics has gone wrong over the last few years
𝖂𝖆𝖞𝖓𝖊 𝕿𝖗𝖔𝖚𝖙𝖑𝖊𝖉𝖌𝖊
GW28 - Bench Boost
Out: Semedo, Zaha
In: James, Fraser
Hopping on the popular bandwagon of double NEW attack. I was gonna go for something logical but I saw Fraser was recently nominated for PL player of the month, so he should be in great form.
Given this start (and the far worse run last season) there's not been much joy in FPL these last 6 months.
On the other hand I recently graduated with a degree in maths, started my first job in the data world, and just made friends with a cat (see pic) so all is not bad ☺️
Sharing a
#FPL
Reddit post that has piqued my interest: a 4.5 MID, possibly playing as an 8, with links to Real Madrid... More exciting than Gordon to say the least.
Currently you can expect to buy ~0.42 pts for £1.0M (EV numbers from
@fplreview
's prelim. model).
This means budget is already a more important factor than at any time in 21/22; selling an asset before a price drop instead of after may be worth >1.5 pts in EV across the season.
𝖂𝖆𝖞𝖓𝖊 𝕿𝖗𝖔𝖚𝖙𝖑𝖊𝖉𝖌𝖊
GW29 - Triple Captain
No transfers
Was considering a hit for Son (& Davies for Robbo and Coutinho), but was priced out overnight. Rolling seems fine as well though!
57 points • 35k
This was the worst GW I can remember ever having.
Gone from 4k to 35k in 2 GWs. 21/22 is effectively over, all my objectives are now impossible.
In a game with millions of players, which has a strong skill component alongside a significant luck component, it would be *extremely surprising* if the most significant outlier wasn't benefitting from both extreme skill and extreme luck outcomes.
Much less painful than preceding seasons 😆
I'm so happy to have had a lucky year of FPL, at last! And excited to see how the best-ever year for FPL Analytics will change the game.
The answer here is that Haaland appears in the optimal solution* up to only £15m!
Although at £15.5 he misses out by a negligible amount, so I'll count that as correct too.
*With this (very generic) set of parameters
Throwback to a fun experiment, run at the peak of Salah's FPL cruciality.
Now that FPL has a new king… at what price do you think Haaland was dropping out of optimal solutions 𝗽𝗿𝗲-𝗚𝗪𝟭 this season ?
(
@fplreview
projections, 12 GW horizon, 0.85 decay, 1.5 FT value)
Erling 🐟 Trout 🐟 Haaland • GW1
I've never gone into a season with money ITB before, this season I have 1.0m ITB 🤑 It was a fun decision to make.
Feeling really positive about this team, it seems to cover the bases well and with great flexibility!
Best of luck everyone.
@sertalpbilal
'Cause Sertalp, you're a firework!
Come on, show 'em models work
Make 'em go, "Oh, Haaland blanked"
As you shoot across the ranks!
Sertalp, you're a firework!
You've got the best optimisation framework
Make 'em go, "crud, crud, crud"
You're gonna leave 'em all in mud, mud, mud!
Not entirely relevant today, but can we all appreciate how much less stressful FPL is when we don't have to worry about early team news? Great decision to move the deadline back.
For anyone who picked '45%' in this poll, I think this is a plot you should see: across a 38 GW season, these are the distributions of clean sheets you would expect from each strategy.
Across a season, spreading your risk is objectively not worth this kind of value sacrifice.
Finally able to work on getting the away kits extension up and running for this season! Hoping it will be ready for GW2, but if not it should be by GW3.
A quick preview: 😉
Hi everyone, FPL Away Kits v1.0 Chrome Extension is now (finally) available!
Have you ever wanted your players, playing away from home, to play in their away kits? No? Well... you can if you want.
The correct answer here is (astoundingly) that Salah appears in optimal solutions 𝘂𝗽 𝘁𝗼 𝗮 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝗽𝗼𝗶𝗻𝘁 𝗼𝗳 £𝟮𝟭.𝟭𝗺!
My guess was also way off, for what it's worth, well done to the 3%
This is what that initial WC team looks like when Salah costs 21.1 million:
Interested in seeing people's thoughts/intuitions here: For the next 8 GWs, how high do you think Salah would need to be priced to drop out of the optimal FPL wildcard solutions?
(
@fplreview
projections, 1.2 points free transfer penalty, 0.84 time-decay, 100m team value)
14/14 A time limit seems like an effective compromise and is therefore highly recommended, as is limiting the use of auxiliary variables and adding common-sense constraints.
If you read this far, you're a nerd 🤓
Not been posting so much about FPL here lately - busy life and negative variance means I'm spending a bit less time on FPL than before.
I WC'd this GW! I don't have any serious regrets about my play this season, but happen to have had my worst-ever start, now outside the top 1M.
This is a lot of fun to record, thanks for having me on Sertalp!
Give it a listen if you want mediocre FPL analysis paired with a relatively thorough examination of the deranged psyches of two broken men.
#FPL
GW8 Wildcard Special with one and only
@FF_Trout
.
Bas is away, and we have talked about James' WC draft (no Haaland), several raw optimal teams, flexibility, some key players, and the captaincy.
Video
Audio
@sertalpbilal
Does your season feel like a plastic bag
Drifting through the ranks, wanting to start again?
Do you feel your bench, often paper thin
Like a house of cards, one blow from cavin' in?
@sertalpbilal
If the premium model told me to assassinate a politician and then live out the rest of my life on the run, moving between distant lands, adopting false identities as I patiently wait for my next model-derived mission, then I would do so - without hesitation.
This started out as a tweet, but got too long and became a blog:
I think going early on Salah -> Bowen was a "good" move for lots of teams, and an objectively "bad" move for very few who considered it.
Eagerly anticipating some rebuttals!
I have some thoughts on this (will share) and I'm interested in hearing where the consensus lies:
For most teams, transferring Salah -> Bowen before price changes (and before LIV vs NEW, WHU vs BHA, and FA Cup matches) on 31st December was...
Coming in just behind, with 9 in single games, are Trent Alexander-Arnold, Trent Alexander-Arnold, and James Milner, who was covering at RB for Trent Alexander-Arnold (as well as a couple of others).
Núñez:
- Is 24 y/o
- Gets >0.8 non-pen goal invls per 90 (better than all of Firmino's, all of Mané's and all but 2 of Salah's seasons with LFC), incl 0.5 goals
- Will score goals at an even higher rate next season, re every useful predictive metric (!)
- Contracted til he's 27
@sertalpbilal
Do you ever feel already buried deep?
1M down you scream, but top 10k don't hear a thing
Do you know for you, there is still a chance?
'Cause there's still variance
You just gotta do xMins scans
Find optimal plans
Keep Everton banned
Like Fábio and Jan
This was a super enjoyable & expansive discussion with Pras 😊
We tried demystifying and disentangling the process of FPL analytics & discussed how I think these ideas can help everyone enjoy the game - even managers who don't employ analytics!
Really enjoyed an analytics focussed chat with James aka
@FF_Trout
on
@TheFPLWire
. If you are analytics curious, love analytics or even hate analytics - check it out.
@analytic_fpl
@sertalpbilal
@LetsTalk_FPL
You joke, but for the last several iterations of my model I have included an exclude_everton attribute, which is set to True by default.
Caused some confusion with DCL last year after I forgot I added it, but in general I think it's been a huge net positive for my performance.
GW32 Ownership Poll - Don't lie, I'll know if you do. And please respond (regardless of chip strategy), as I am going to do something 𝒇𝒖𝒏 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝒊𝒏𝒕𝒆𝒓𝒆𝒔𝒕𝒊𝒏𝒈 with the results.
First up... which GK are you planning to field in your starting XI?
𝖂𝖆𝖞𝖓𝖊 𝕿𝖗𝖔𝖚𝖙𝖑𝖊𝖉𝖌𝖊
GW33
2 FTs, 1.9 ITB
In: Sancho, Adams, Telles, Schär
Out: Fraser, Lacazette, Doherty, Tierney (-8)
FH33 & 37 is razor-thin, transfer combinations even thinner. 3 days of FPL with stochastic programming and I don't know how I survived without it!
So excited to be a part of this very cool team!
We have a mission to build new, high-quality solutions for FPL analytics, and bring fresh ideas and perspectives 😁
We'll be posting updates on a newsletter for now, follow along at !
#FPL
#FPLCommunity
A good performance from James Rodríguez today seems to have gone a bit under the radar, a few close offsides prevented him from a haul. He's keeping to nearly 0.6 NPxGI/90, which outdoes KDB and Bruno (higher NPxG than either as well). Continues to be a pretty easy hold for me.
𝖂𝖆𝖞𝖓𝖊 𝕿𝖗𝖔𝖚𝖙𝖑𝖊𝖉𝖌𝖊
GW26
Wildcard
Can only guess that both paths ought to be very close on average. It's a shame my fate rests on an impossible choice, but then this is just a silly game.
A small and utterly irrelevant detail in
#FPL
that I don't anyone has ever noticed: if you sub on a midfielder for a defender, the midfielder will go to the LHS of the row. If you sub him on for a forward, he will go to the RHS of the row. Fascinating stuff.
Cod-rigo Bentancur 🐟
GW1
So, the same team as everyone else, more or less. Feel like the pre-WC1 stretch will present no serious strategic challenges, but maybe some challenging outcomes. Should be a fun season!
GW16
Points: 6️⃣6️⃣
Overall points: 9️⃣9️⃣9️⃣
Team id; 9️⃣9️⃣9️⃣9️⃣9️⃣9️⃣ 😊
Probably my luckiest 10 GW stretch in 4 years of FPL, and therefore the most enjoyable!
𝖂𝖆𝖞𝖓𝖊 𝕿𝖗𝖔𝖚𝖙𝖑𝖊𝖉𝖌𝖊
GW30
2 FTs, 0.7 ITB
Out: Digne
In: Doherty
Honestly, no clue. Only gave myself an hour for one of the hardest decisions. Ran out of tine. Decided FH37/36>FH30 with no confidence, made a transfer with less confidence, and forgot about captaincy.
𝖂𝖆𝖞𝖓𝖊 𝕿𝖗𝖔𝖚𝖙𝖑𝖊𝖉𝖌𝖊
GW37
Free Hit
Would have liked some way to untie my variance from everyone else, but I still have some EV to fight for and the EV would not permit sacrilege. Template it is, then.
One of the smartest people I know in the FPL analytics corner managed to write up a full implementation of an idea while I was still drawing diagrams to work out how it might be done 🤖
One of the smartest people I know in the FPL Analytics corner is
@FF_Trout
. I spent 4 hours on my optimization code today after he brought up a great idea, and still working on the implementation. Will share some details later.
#FPL
𝖂𝖆𝖞𝖓𝖊 𝕿𝖗𝖔𝖚𝖙𝖑𝖊𝖉𝖌𝖊
GW27
Free Hit
Excited to see that the popular consensus seems to have gone in a different direction to my preference, but I don't think my odds are much better than a coin toss at the end of the day.
A late-night WC7 draft, which will probably be activated if Ronaldo rest news is leaked.
Son is a nice piggy bank allowing to wait for more data on City mid xMins and to eventually facilitate Trent's return (for Arsenal defence, probably). Think Ramsdale's upside is worth 0.5.
FPL Away Kits for Chrome is now updated for the 23/24 season! If your players are playing in an away fixture, they will wear away kits 👇
(that's right, I still own Gabriel)
My thoughts on this (very thought-provoking!) discussion are that if we define our objective more specifically then the interaction between EV, risk, and our objective should be measurable. Seems like a lot of top FPL players' aims is simply to maximize top 10k probability. 1/6
Is Bruno’s baseline attacking output affected by Pogba’s presence/absence?
I've looked at this a bit today, and I think it’s an interesting example of extreme noise and why it's essential to view statistics in context.
Hello followers, I would like to address recent rumours: I am in fact NOT Fábio Borges.
I have no top 5k finishes, no professional poker experience, no Portuguese language skills, and no complete understanding the deep and eternal mysteries of the universe.
2⃣2⃣2⃣
🐐🐐🐐
This man does what the rest of us could only dream of (and he does it every year, which means it's not luck)
Bow to the greatest ever to have tapped on "confirm transfers".
Legendary number 1 HOF of
@FFScout
Fabio Borges with 222th OR finish , keep his senstional ranks
I wish he was part of the
#FPLCommunity
, but maybe it is his secret 😉
@sertalpbilal
@FPLcola
If you didn't check the 2-week weather forecast in Burnley before bringing in Son then you only have yourself to blame I'm afraid. The forecasts were there...
@dis_fpl
@FPL_Jan
Yep sorry Luke, after the GW1 I've had I'm in it to win it this year. Got to control the information and tilt my opponents whenever possible. It's what Napoleon would have done
🏆FPL Review Data Based Champion 20/21🏆
The scan of the top 350k
#FPL
teams is complete! This means best managers in the world based on
@fplreview
modelling can be announced
If you finished top 350k you can find your team here (use ctrl+f):
You think your ID is cool? All I'll say is it's one of the first 7 powers of 3 written in base 5, and it ain't 7th 😉
You want more? It's the integer part of a volume of a regular tetrahedron with integer edge length 😎
And... it's the middle member of a sexy prime triple 😳
Well, here's mine moving into the last deadline. I'm really happy in general with play this season, although my decisions in the last 10 GWs lead to bad underlying (and worse actual outcome) realisations. I won't succeed in beating last year's numbers, but much better variance!
And thus the sun sets on the Maupay era of my team, one of my worst fantasy assets of all time. In my team he accumulated a slightly disappointing 3 xG and half an xA across the span of 10 weeks, somehow without obtaining a single attacking return...
@FPL_Chase
@fplreview
@FPLRobbed
@MikkelTokvam
🤣🤣 Ridiculous isn't it! I don't think it's possible to break the ceiling of manager skill, but he's a compelling counterexample.
If he finishes in the top 1k again next season, I'll legally change my name to Fabio and this
@FF_Trout
will become a Fabio Borges stan account.
Whenever Jesse Lingard scores, I sit back and smile, finding great comfort and joy in the knowledge that it probably shouldn't have happened. I feel at peace.
The success of FPL analytics over the last few years has been unbelievable to witness 😀
Bullet Wisdom is a discord analytics league that contains 261 managers - it was more competitive than 14 out of 20 club supporters leagues !!!!!
I'm thrilled to congratulate Jonas (
@ASC_FPL
) on his historic Fantasy Premier League win. Jonas, your victory as the first champion from the analytics community marks a significant milestone in our shared passion for data-driven success in sports. You've made us all proud!
@sertalpbilal
@FPLFutbolmetrix
Call me Grass FC but I think that EV over a season, and especially over less than a season, is probably given a little too much precedence on this app (maybe in the same way xG is!) And I wouldn't be so worried by this season review!
Okay... Castagne was added to the game on the 4th September, Havertz (who fell tonight) on the 6th.
My only guess is that they lock the prices of new signings for ~15 days after addition, which would mean Rodríguez is eligible for a rise tomorrow.
FINALLY had a chance to play around with this over the last few hours, and it is just breathtakingly good. I couldn't really have imagined a couple of seasons back that an FPL tool could be as useful or visually stunning as the Review Planner now is! It's such a treat.
Planning on has just gone to the next level, after a front-end overhaul of the planner tools
You can now draft, save & visualise multiple transfer plans on using the site prediction models. This, amongst other upgrades are detailed below
#FPL
𝖂𝖆𝖞𝖓𝖊 𝕿𝖗𝖔𝖚𝖙𝖑𝖊𝖉𝖌𝖊
GW30
2 FTs, 0.7 ITB
Out: Digne
In: Doherty
Honestly, no clue. Only gave myself an hour for one of the hardest decisions. Ran out of tine. Decided FH37/36>FH30 with no confidence, made a transfer with less confidence, and forgot about captaincy.