Sigurd @FplSigurd Twitter profile

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

4 years

How to create the best team—my approach. 1. Get the two players you think have the best points expectancy, irrespective of price, from different teams. Captaincy justifies disregarding price on 2 players, but you will lose expected value if you overdo the high end premiums. 1/8

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

3 years

Hi, my name is Sigurd and I captained Salah this GW and Havertz in GW 9.

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

3 years

Most appealing FPL assets so far, in my view: Iheanacho - 7.5, F Watkins - 7.5, F Antonio - 7.5, F Toney - 6.5, F Mbeumo - 5.5, M Raphinha - 6.5, M Jota - 7.5, M Salah - 12, M Digne - 5.5, D Trent - 7.5, D Coufal - 5, D Ayling - 4.5, D Sanchez - 4.5 GK

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

3 years

Lady Fortuna decided 91 points was the right amount. 170k -> 9k Stoked and embarrassed.

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

3 years

The tragedy that is owning Joshua King in FPL is a bottomless pit, a never-ending nightmare, an experiment in torture.

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

3 years

If you play FPL as if ownership was not a consideration at all, you are probably doing yourself a favor. Numero uno, *by far*, is to maximize expected points. This holds true for any game-theoretically optimal approach to FPL, including one where you value 1st place at 1... 1/

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

3 years

Savour the moment everyone. No part of the FPL season is better than the last couple of days before GW1.

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

2 years

The problem with Robertson is that you either have to sacrifice some major player such as 11.5 fwd, Jesus or a superior defender; or play 5 atb, which is very inflexible; or overload on cheap midfielders, which also leaves you inflexible; or some combination. I don't love it.

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

3 years

Some stats after 11 GWs, because the sample is starting to become usable. First, here are per 90 stats for players with at least 400 minutes, sorted by non-pen xG + xA per 90. Liverpool assets are great, so is Reece James. Gallagher looks legit; King might be a good one.

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

3 years

As an invested player it pains me to say this, but your product is becoming pretty lousy @OfficialFPL . 🤞 for better times.

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

2 years

Captaincy blank but at least I got a new 10k PB @ 41:51

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

2 years

Bodø/Glimt beating Mourinho's Roma in a QF game after smashing them in the group stage is brilliant. Bodø, in case you didn't know, is a town north of the Arctic Circle with ~50k inhabitants and their football team was in the second division in Norway a few years ago.

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

3 years

1. Bruno was a good pick this GW. 2. Bruno captainers got lucky. 1. and 2. are logically consistent, and they are both true. If you need me to resolve any other pressing issues, I'm at your service🦸‍♂️

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

3 years

When talking frequently with other stat-heads and analytics enthusiasts, it's easy to forget that many people aren't familiar with some of the basic concepts we use. Here's an explainer on what expected value (EV) is - which I think most should want to be familiar with.

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

3 years

Just handed in this bad boy. Pumped but also nervous.

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

8 months

Lol missed the deadline by like 3 seconds, but here’s an unfiltered picture from Oslo this evening.

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

2 years

Banning Russians is a bad decision @OfficialFPL . You're doing the opposite of what Zelenskyy is so wisely and shrewdly doing, which is to reach out to Russian citizens and recognize them as independent from their terrible leader. Alienating ordinary Russians is not the way to go.

Karam Tayser

@FPLInvestigator

2 years

Every FPL team registered Russia as their country has been deleted. That's the Country Mini League completely wiped out. #FPL #FPLCommunity

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

4 years

Imagine playing poker, and some times after you’ve placed a bet (you don’t know when) you have to replace a card in your hand with a random card from the deck. That’s covid FPL for you.

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

2 years

Of all the things I could worry about in FPL, my team being "too template" is not one of them. The template is stronger than ever before, but having just two players different from another team is more than enough to engender disparate outcomes...

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

3 years

GW26 This has been the weirdest and perhaps most difficult FPL planning I've ever done. -20: Ronaldo, Antonio, Jota, Alonso, Cancelo and DDG -> Jimenez, Lacazette, Salah, VVD, Tierney and Sá TC Salah I plan to FH27. Good luck - you'll need it almost as much as I will.

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

2 years

The 8.0 midfielders are generally great. I would not start the season without one of them. Foden and Mahrez have the best per 90 stats, but their minute expectations are too sketchy right now, so don't want to start GW1 with them. Foresee buying Foden later. IMO, Kulusevski also

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

3 years

Of the top six players for accumulated xG and xA, only four play for Liverpool.

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

3 years

My decision to take a -8 for Ronaldo, Son, Reguilon and Gray before GW21 was good at the time, I swear.

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

3 years

Rolling the FT, captaining Salah and feeling disappointed that there aren't any better puzzles to solve for GW2.

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

4 years

Don't think I'm going to bench Gündogan again.

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

3 years

If there is one word to describe the current FPL season, it is the word 'turbulent'. We have more doubles than in any prior season, and the added matches are distributed across different gameweeks for different teams. Then, we have blanks sprinkled in between too, making 1/7

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

3 years

Yeah, Reece James is good at whacking the ball, but what is more impressive is his strength. Imagine carrying all these FPL teams😳

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

2 years

Great player; great FPL option.

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

3 years

Won't bench Benrahma again anytime soon.

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

2 years

It’s deadline day. Treat yourself!

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

2 years

My current gameweek rank is 8.8M. You can support my podcast at 👌

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

2 years

Can you tweet something like Fabio Borges is probably the best FPL manager

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

3 years

That’s some serious abuse Greenwood has done to his girlfriend. Hope he doesn’t get to play professional football in a long time.

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

3 years

DGW 26 for 8 teams: Spurs: mci + bur Burnley: bri + TOT Watford: avl + CRY Palace: CHE + wat Liverpool: NOR + LEE Leeds: MUN + liv Arsenal: BRE + WOL Wolves: LEI + ars Liverpool and Arsenal have great DGWs, but both blank the next GW.

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

2 years

No FH, just a sickening amount of luck so far this GW.

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

2 years

GW3 Neto & Williams -> Reed & CUCURELLA Couldn't see a meaningful upgrade if I only used one free transfer, so went with a reshuffle to access the irresistible vibes of Rhianna's dream man. Salah C Good luck

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

3 years

🕯️ For the 195,977 managers who have sold Trent Alexander-Arnold this week.

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

4 years

-4 removing Son🙋‍♂️

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

3 years

A series of thoughts about the GW 8 WC. - The number of late arrivals and possible injuries gives extra incentive for a deep squad, which I want in any case. White is particularly good, since he is cheap and has great games when it matters. - If there still are several 1/6

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

2 years

@fbref An option to display stats from user-set time periods.

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

3 years

This hurts so bad. Please don’t rub in with hindsight.

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

2 years

My first though is to replace James with Cucurella, but I’m all ears for better suggestions. Already own Cancelo.

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

3 years

@julesbreach Hey Jules! Can you confirm whether Bruno really said this?

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

3 years

With Ronaldo in FPL playing for the team with the biggest fanbase, we are going into a period where how many points he gets will be very decisive for rank outcomes. No matter whether you bet for or against him, please don't make the experience insufferable with hindsight mockery.

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

3 years

There’s a global pandemic on mate, you need to get some perspective if you've done early transfers.

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

3 years

If you throw a six-sided die against an eight-sided die, there will be sequences where the six-sided die returns a higher value several throws in a row. It really does happen.

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

2 years

Can’t believe I’m the only one on FPL Twitter who’s annoyed that Kulusevski’s assist points are missing.

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

3 years

Two things. First, individual gameweek results are almost all variance - don’t kick yourself for missing one of the great hauls.Second, the season isn’t over because of this one bad gameweek. Having a few terrible gameweeks is consistent with having a fantastic season.

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

3 years

FYI

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

3 years

When I realized just how good and consistent Son has been, I decided to make a draft with him. His goals+assists per 90 the last five seasons are particularly impressive (penalties excluded): 0.87, 0.70, 0.79, 0.76 and 0.75

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

3 years

Deadline day vibes. Dedicating this to Benrahma.

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

3 years

Some tips for constructing a team. 1. Do not make a team with pre-planned transfers. You will inevitably be bombarded with information about performance, team roles and minutes, and you want to be able to jump on them without bleeding EV on a player you had planned to sell.

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

3 years

Alonso is a good pick if Chilwell is out long term👍

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

2 years

It’s Friday and I’m BB’ing a squad 15 DGWers. The vibes are so strong I just can’t help it.

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

3 years

I'm a fixtures man, but I wouldn't go out of my way to sell Antonio. Unless he gets injured you will want him back in a few GWs, and at that point you've spent two FTs on him and lost value. His stats are beyond anything we can expect from a nailed-for-90 player around his price.

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

4 years

FPL is a complicated game of dice where you have a limited budget to buy and sell 15 dice, play 11 each round. The dice all have different ranges with two interesting properties: The ranges change over time and your access to what they are at any given point in time is limited.

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

2 years

GW 38 63 points Final rank @ 3.9k 😊

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

2 years

Does anyone have arguments for using your WC in some GW other than 9? Interested in both positive reasons for other GWs than 9, negative reasons against WC GW9, and comparative considerations.

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

3 years

In blank gameweeks, you want all the players you are taking a hit for to have a point expectation of 4 or more. For gameweek 18, you want an extra margin to compensate for risk of player infection and covid cancellation. This makes few players worth a hit. Foden👍 but Ramsdale😒

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

2 years

Some of us were thinking and many are still thinking that you need a better captain in GW3 than Salah away against Manchester United, but United conceded the same amount of xG as Everton last season and let's just say that they didn't impress in the first game this season.

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

2 years

GW 36 Havertz & Foster out for the sons of Maddi & Eder, but no Son. Lots of effective players👍

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

4 years

The comic levels of variance in FPL were well and truly manifested this GW. Just don't throw your prior beliefs overboard; update them slowly. Despite what we've seen GW, Werner is still a good forward, Wolves still have a good defense and City still have the best attack.

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

2 years

Massive Data (MD) rankings from FPL Review are being shared these days, and they seem to be divisive, as well as playing into a (partly imagined) conflict between analytical and non-analytical approaches to FPL. I wanted to express my own view of how MD rankings relate to skill.

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

3 years

BOSSARD YOU DELICIOUS SON OF A GUN💪🔥❤️💪🔥❤️

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

3 years

Kai Havertz is the best captain this gameweek.

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

3 years

I'm sure people are excited about running out their WC teams in GW4 but I get to play Kieran Tierney at home against Norwich and I'm pretty stoked about it.

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

3 years

FPL doesn't give us an opportunity to show him love, but man, Kanté is just an absolutely fantastic football player. Soooooo damn good. And then he's got that smiling, friendly presence. You can't not love him.

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

3 years

Team for GW 15 White -> Dier, roll the other FT. Family reunion 👨‍👨‍👦 Salah C

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

2 years

This season has been a humbling experience to me. It is one thing to know that FPL is a high variance game and another thing to attune your emotions and response patterns to this fact. Success engages, and it sets you up for a smack in the face when things don't go your way. 1/5

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

3 years

Gameweek 31 Wildcard squad is set and I’m happy with it. Would only change if we get some late, late injury news. Salah C Good luck

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

3 years

These fraudulent Euros fantasy games haven't scratched my itch properly. Longing for the real drug.

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

3 years

Want to have a 4.0 GK on your bench and avoid a price drop? We need an alliance. The price won't drop if we far outnumber the potential early sellers. Please join me selecting and keeping Virgínia at least until your 1st WC. Bonus: He has a nice kit.

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

3 years

Foden looked fantastic yesterday. I think I'm going to have him in my WC team.

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

2 years

The overall top four are all from Norway or Sweden, with two more Swedes in the top ten and three more Norwegians in the top 20 (i.e. 9/20 total). The big question is of course where all the Danes have gone.

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

3 years

Is it just me who's reluctant to buy Ferran Torres? I think I might be too conservative at times, it's just hard to know when this disposition is right and when it's wrong. All I know is minutes are king.

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

3 years

GW 28 Could have rolled or done a single FT, but more games is more fun. And James is very fun. VVD & Reguilon -> James & Kilman (-4) Cash itb to get Ødegaard or Martinelli next GW for Sissoko. James C, I think! Don't get mad at me if I do a late switch to Raphinha. GL

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

1 year

Grass FC data collection.

Out Of Context Football

@nocontextfooty

1 year

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

2 years

Outside the top 1m

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

3 years

Strongly recommend not making a transfer before we get more info about the international break and what regulations players face when they return from duty.

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

3 years

Hearing Analytics FC is in the mud. I’d like to stay here a little longer.

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

3 years

Second FH draft, in line with what everyone wanted me to change👌

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

2 years

Not been active lately. Still on vacation from work and FPL, but looking forward to delving into the new season. And here I am representing quality football stats in Trier, Germany.

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

2 years

Sleeping on this

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

3 years

Watching this I have the sense that Lukaku is going to be a terrific FPL asset.

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

3 years

I think it's good to have three Manchester United players for GW35 and captain Bruno👍

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

2 years

Son and Kulu blank😑 But double Brighton CS🤫

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

4 years

I'll throw a "bold" prediction out there: In the remainder of 2020, Werner will score more points than Fernandes. Currently, Fernandes has 74 and Werner has 50. Check back and mock me on December 31st (unless one of them get injured).

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

3 years

I have one FT and a real option of activating the Bench Boost. Whether or not that ends up being the play, I like the way my team looks for next GW.

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

3 years

By the way, Jota got 3 bonus points yesterday.

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

4 years

Pulisic @ 8.3m🤤 Soon he’ll be at the price they first announced him at.

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

4 years

This weekend was a remarkable display of the lacking predictivity of "form". Salah and Bamford were "out of form" but both were heavily involved and got 15 points. "In-form" Gündoğan got in 0 shots and 3 points at home vs. ShU. Don't go crazy over recent results folks.

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

2 years

106 points 17k -> 7k I'll take it!

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

7 months

113 points 590k -> 290k Are we back yet?

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

3 years

GW2 The EV police forced Benrahma on the bench and it hurts. Let’s see if he escapes custody over night, but it’s looking grim for the silver-haired Algerian. Salah C Good luck

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

2 years

Salah 20/21: 0.43 npxG/90 and 0.18 xA/90 22/23: 0.46 npxG/90 and 0.19 xA/90 In 20/21, Salah scored 22 goals (one goal away from the Golden Boot). The fact that his current goal rate is lower is explained by slightly negative finishing relative to npxG, and 0 pens awarded. 1/2

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

3 years

You can halve your rank at this stage in the season with a team that is *very template*. There is so much rank change potential when you add all your players together, and this GW was far from perfect for me. You don't need differentials. Revisit them if necessary in GW36.

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

2 years

You can choose to avoid tripling up on a team, or you could just grab more expected value (EV). You can choose to captain the player with a Sunday afternoon kickoff rather than the first match of the GW, or you could just grab more EV.

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

4 years

42 points with Salah (c) and Trent to go and it feels kind of massive😅

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

3 years

Generally in games, you have to expect that your opponents make good decisions. So, of all the concerns you could have about your FH squad, it being "boring" or "too similar" to other FH teams is not a concern worth having. Obviously, the best response to good decisions from your

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Sigurd

@FplSigurd

2 years

That feeling when @LetsTalk_FPL says - oh shit - we are in trouble - ffs to a chat full of Salah cappers. Then learns that his source was just joking with him, then passes that on. Terrifying stuff.

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